nbies top 10- 1 september 2014

Institutional Equities


As we approach the last month leading up to the half year end of FY15, and the GDP numbers over the weekend also surprising for the

better helping the Nifty scale the never before seen mark of 8000, there is overall optimism in the air that the rally in the Indian markets

which began on hope post Mr. Narendra Modi’s anointment as the Prime Ministerial Candidate of India in September of last year, would

continue to sustain, now that he is in charge of the world’s largest democracy. Initial signals-on foreign policy, economics (including

reforms of FDI and otherwise in various sectors), continuity of constructive policies of the UPA and also a reach-out to every citizen to

be self accountable in his Independence Day speech has helped continue the wave of optimism.

Through our interaction with clients this financial year, we have come away with the key takeaway that post a near 60% rally on the

Nifty since the August 2013 lows of 5100, investors are looking for growth and value stocks rather than taking a sector overweight /

underweight call at this point in time. It is in this backdrop, and given that our economist has also upgraded her GDP target for FY15 to

5.2% from 5.0% earlier citing upside risks to this number remain, that we have, from our entire coverage universe, identified the

following 10 stocks which we think investors should be holding from a 3-year perspective. These companies exhibit the qualities of good

cash flow, strong earnings growth potential, re-rating of return ratios and very strong top-line visibility. Our view on all these stocks has

been consistent since our initiation of coverage on them at various points in time during the last four years and continue to believe that

investors should have a holding in these stocks.

It is with these brief words I leave you with Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities’ “Top 10” stock ideas as on September 1, 2014.

Best Regards,

Rahul Arora

Chief Executive Officer

Introduction


NBIE’s TOP 10

3

Colgate-Palmolive (India)

Bata India

Natco Pharma

Triveni Turbine

Credit Analysis & Research

(CARE)

V-Guard Industries

CCL Products (India)

Adi Finechem

Vesuvius India

HeidelbergCement India


Colgate-Palmolive (India) CMP: Rs1,536; Rating: Accumulate; M-Cap: US$3.4bn

4

Oral care in India offers a tremendous growth opportunity because of low

toothpaste penetration in rural areas at 63%, low per capita consumption even

when compared to emerging markets and also the ongoing/potential increase

in premiumisation.

Colgate, the clear market leader with a 57% market share in toothpastes,

enjoys unparalleled barriers to entry in the form of phenomenal brand strength,

widest product portfolio, advantage of dedicated focus (oral care is 97% of

sales); huge distribution reach, unmatched category development efforts,

remarkable track record of success in emerging markets and continued high

spending on advertising and promotion (A&P), which its peers can’t match.

Despite unprecedented competitive intensity over the past year from P&G’s

Oral-B toothpaste launch and increased aggression from Hindustan Unilever,

Colgate has increased its market share by 120bps YoY in toothpastes, went

for higher-than-usual price hikes in the past few years, did not offer any

discounts and its working capital situation has actually improved substantially

in the past one year.

A large part of the pain because of high A&P spending (up 380bps YoY in

FY14 at 19.2% of sales) has already been witnessed on margins and with

steady sales growth, ongoing premiumisation, lower A&P spending to sales

ratio going forward and operating leverage, EPS is likely to post a 22% CAGR

for the next three years. The stock trades at 27.9x/24.2x FY16E/FY17E EPS,

respectively, well below MNC peers, despite best-in-class earnings growth,

RoE and RoCE of ~100% and attractive dividend yield of 2.5%-3.0%. One-

year target price shows 18% upside, two-year shows 37% upside and three-

year shows 59% upside.

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue 31,654 35,788 40,619 47,525 55,129

YoY (%) 17.4 13.1 13.5 17.0 16.0

EBITDA 6,584 6,640 8,408 10,883 12,845

EBITDA (%) 20.8 18.6 20.7 22.9 23.3

PAT 4,968 4,755 5,875 7,476 8,640

YoY (%) 11.3 (4.3) 23.6 27.2 15.6

FDEPS (Rs) 36.5 35.0 43.2 55.0 63.5

RoE (%) 107.4 87.3 90.6 98.6 97.0

RoCE (%) 105.2 85.4 89.0 96.7 94.8

P/E (x) 42.1 43.9 35.6 27.9 24.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 30.9 30.9 24.2 18.6 15.5

P/BV (x) 42.7 34.8 30.0 25.5 21.7

Price/sales (x) 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.3 3.6

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

(Rs) 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year

Target Price 1,813 2,096 2,440


Bata India CMP: Rs1,278; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$1.4bn

5

Strong free cash flow, return ratios

Operating cash flow/free cash flow at Rs9.6bn/Rs6.9bn, respectively, and RoIC up 1,593bps at 51.2% likely over CY13-CY16E.

Aggressive setting-up of stores

BIL opened only 95/30 gross/net stores in CY13 against 189/129, respectively, in CY12. It will be more aggressive in CY14 by opening 130-150 stores. BIL has already opened 70 stores till date. On account of lower penetration, growth in CY13/1HCY14 was moderate at 12.1%/8.9%. With, strong store addition and better same-store sales growth, overall growth may rebound to 17.1% in CY15E.

Steadily improving profitability

Operating margin likely to touch 20% in the long run due to: a) Improvement in gross margin, b) Lower employee costs because of VRS, rising share of K-stores, c) Moderation in lease rentals, and d) Lower power/fuel as well as manufacturing costs following the modernisation of three out of its five plants. Operating margin to improve 255bps at 18.1% over CY13--CY16E.

Sets up a training institute to generate quality vendors/sales staff for long-term growth

In a tie up with leading Italian training institute, BIL is setting up a training centre at Bata Nagar, Kolkata, which would provide training in the field of manufacturing, product development and other aspects.

To improve sales staff service at its outlets, BIL has recently set up and is further setting up various sales training centres. BIL conducted sales training for the entire sales staff at a few outlets and witnessed double-digit improvement in their productivity. In a span of 18 months, a significant portion of the sales staff will be trained to realise the low-hanging benefit of better productivity.



Target Price 1,507 1,714 2,400

Y/E Dec. (Rsmn) CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E

Revenues 15,425 18,425 20,652 22,785 26,682 32,541

YoY (%) 22.6 19.4 12.1 10.3 17.1 22

EBITDA 2,305 2,744 3,220 3,490 4,469 5,904

EBITDA (%) 14.9 14.9 15.6 15.3 16.8 18.1

Reported PAT 2,258 1,716 1,909 2,034 2,786 3,672

Adj. PAT 1,421 1,716 1,976 2,142 2,786 3,672

FDEPS (Rs) 22.1 26.7 30.7 33.3 43.4 57.1

YoY (%) 49.0 20.8 15.1 8.4 30.0 31.8

RoE (%) 29.2 26.9 25.7 23.5 25.6 27.7

RoCE (%) 29.7 26.1 25.3 23.5 25.6 27.7

RoIC (%) 40.6 32.9 35.2 35.4 41.6 51.2

P/E (x) 57.8 47.9 41.6 38.3 29.5 22.4

Price/sales (x) 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 35.2 29.3 24.7 22.5 17.3 12.7


Natco Pharma CMP: Rs1,169; Rating: Accumulate; M-Cap: US$663mn

6

Dual play on leadership in domestic oncology market and an interesting product

pipeline in the US.

Strong pipeline of Para IV products and certain other niche filings, including three

of the most complex blockbuster drugs in the US - Copaxone (multiple sclerosis

drug- second filer, market size: US$3.5bn – Natco Pharma is planning for at-risk

launch post USFDA approval), Revlimid (oncology drug - sole first-to file or FTF,

market size: US$3bn) and Tamiflu (FTF, market size: US$495mn, tentative

approval in March 2014). Other key filings are Fosnerol (CNS drug, shares FTF

with two other players, market size: US$110mn) and Tykerb (oncology drug, sole

FTF, market size: US$120mn).

Recently launched generic versions of Imatinib and Bendamustine injection in

Europe, and likely launch of Lansoprazole OTC (end-CY14) and Fosnerol

(CY15) apart from commencement of Venezeulan contract from 2QFY15 (annual

contract size is Rs800mn) to keep the growth momentum strong in the medium

term.

Expect strong traction in exports over the next two years, thereby offsetting near-

term weakness in the non-oncology portfolio (~8% of FY14 sales) in India, which

is likely to boost margins in the long run.

Expect a 25% earnings CAGR over FY14-FY17E, as against a 21% CAGR over

FY10-FY14.

With the improvement in its financials and strong prospects of the US product

pipeline bearing fruit, we have valued Natco Pharma’s base business at

Rs758/share, valuing the stock at 15xFY16E EPS and adding Rs367 (after

factoring in a worst-case scenario for Copaxone which factors in a delayed

launch in September 2015) for the US drug pipeline to arrive at a target price of

Rs1,125.



Target Price 1,125 1,401 1,698

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Net Sales 6,484 7,389 8,909 10,426 12,067

YoY (%) 24.7 14 20.6 17 15.7

EBITDA 1,379 1,793 2,138 2,554 3,017

EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 24.3 24 24.5 25

Net Profit 719 1,026 1,306 1,717 2,164

YoY % 20.6 42.7 27.3 31.5 26.1

Adj. PAT 835 1,026 1,306 1,717 2,164

YoY % 40 22.9 27.3 31.5 26.1

EPS 22.9 30.4 38.4 50.5 63.7

Adj. EPS 26.6 30.4 38.4 50.5 63.7

RoE (%) 14.3 17.8 19.4 21.6 22.6

RoCE (%) 13.7 15.4 17.4 20.1 22.6

P/E (x) 45.1 39.5 31.2 23.7 18.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 28.7 22.8 20.5 17.2 14.3


Triveni Turbine CMP: Rs84; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$462mn

7

Technology-driven customised products Industrial turbines are customised as per user industries and output

capacity. Hence, it is a low competition and high-margin business. The 0-30MW segment enjoys duopoly in India.

Strong financial health Robust margin profile, high return ratios, strong cash flows and

healthy dividend payout

Scale-up of GE-Triveni JV (30-100MW segment)

JV grew substantially in FY14 with orders worth 225MW versus 35MW/80MW in FY12/FY13, respectively, and further scale-up likely.

Rising exports and after-market services This has aided margins and countered moderation in domestic

growth.

Exports formed 29%/32% of FY14 revenue/order intake, respectively.

Strong and steady after-market services (22% of FY14 revenue, margins upwards of 35%) is key differentiator.

Recovery in domestic captive power market

Market size collapsed from 1,800MW in FY10 to 700MW in FY14, while likely gradual recovery to provide a significant boost.

Healthy growth momentum likely over FY14-FY16E

Revenue/EBITDA/earnings CAGR seen at 37%/48%/51%, respectively.

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Net sales 6,653 5,154 7,799 9,633 11,202

EBITDA 1,609 1,036 1,735 2,256 2,655

Net profit 1,045 680 1,190 1,556 1,813

EPS (Rs) 3.2 2.1 3.6 4.7 5.5

EPS growth (%) 19.6 (35.0) 75.0 30.8 16.5

EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 20.1 22.2 23.4 23.7

PER (x) 26.5 40.8 23.3 17.8 15.3

P/BV (x) 20.0 15.9 11.2 8.0 6.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.0 26.8 15.9 12.0 9.9

Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.0

RoCE (%) 97.5 43.5 58.8 56.7 50.1

RoE (%) 75.6 38.9 48.0 45.0 39.2


Target Price 110 130 165



Credit Analysis & Research (CARE) CMP: Rs1,259; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$576mn

8

Highest margin on the back of low-cost structure CARE enjoyed the lowest cost structure in the rating business

at 36.1% in FY14 followed by Crisil/ICRA at 65.8%/58.8%, respectively. CARE has highest rating EBIT margin of 62.7% against 39.6%/45.5% in case of Crisil/ICRA, respectively.

Outpaces industry growth on faster ramp-up in low ticket size instruments With better ability to profitably handle lower ticket sizes, fresh

instruments rated rose by a 37.9% CAGR over FY09-FY14. CARE is best placed to monetise 25,000 small companies yet to be rated over the next three years.

Likely revival in bank credit to drive revenue of BLR segment Rating business accounted for 96% of FY14 revenue out of

which BLR/SME segments constituted 67% of rating revenue for CARE.

Moderation in interest rates, supported by better demand, is likely to improve corporate capex in FY16. It will drive BLR (bank loan rating) segment’s revenue by 16.5% CAGR over FY14-FY17E as against 9.1% over FY12-FY14.

Healthy cash flow and strong return ratios FCF of Rs5.3bn with a FCF yield of 7.5% likely in FY17E. RoCE

likely to improve from 28.5% in FY14 to 33.6% in FY17E.

Y/E June (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY146 FY17E

Revenue 1,796 2,030 2,356 2,750 3,224 3,807

YoY (%) 5.1 13.1 16.0 16.7 17.2 18.1

EBITDA 1,234 1,346 1,477 1,720 2,031 2,403

EBITDA (%) 68.7 66.3 62.7 62.6 63.0 63.1

Adj.PAT 1,076 1,136 1,294 1,474 1,728 2,047

FDEPS (Rs) 37.7 39.8 44.6 50.8 59.6 70.6

YoY (%) (60.5) 5.5 12.2 13.9 17.2 18.5

P/E (x) 33.4 31.6 28.2 24.8 21.1 17.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 26.4 23.6 21.4 18.2 15.1 12.5

RoIC (%) 236.6 342.2 1,247.4 1,833.8 1,914.6 6,720.8

RoCE (%) 31.6 28.3 28.5 29.2 31.4 33.6

RoE (%) 31.7 28.3 28.5 29.2 31.4 33.6



Target Price 1,610 1,907 2,100


V-Guard Industries CMP: Rs738; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$363.3mn

9

Channel financing, bill discounting and lower non-southern region receivables to improve working capital cycle o V-Guard Industries (VIL) has introduced channel financing scheme

for its dealers (Rs450mn, or 3.0% of sales, in FY14 compared to Rs200mn, or 1.5% of sales, in FY13). Non-southern region’s receivables are a month higher than that of the southern region and VIL is reducing it by ~10 days every year.

o Ex-cash working capital to reduce to 15.3% in FY17E from 19.5%/16.8% in FY13/FY14, respectively.

Lower discounts and high success rate in non-southern region to drive margins To incentivize the distributors in non-southern region, VIL sells its

products at 3%-4% discount compared to southern region. VIL has been able to reduce the discount from 5%-6% to current 3%-4%.

Non-southern region is on the cusp of PAT break-even by FY15E.

Unifying product pricing and dealer margin going forward to improve operating margin by 125bsp over FY14-FY17E.

Healthy volume on low capex, lean working capital needs to drive free cash flow/return ratios VIL is expected to post operating cash flow/FCF of Rs3bn/Rs1.7bn

over FY14-FY17E and turn debt -fee in the next three years.

With a lower sum required for working capital and minimum capex, RoCE is expected to improve by 593bps from 20.5% in FY14 to 26.5% in FY17E.

31% CAGR expected in bottom-line over FY14-FY17E



Target Price 915 1,210 1,500

Y/E Mar(Rsmn) cons. FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY146 FY17E

Revenues 9,646 13,602 15,176 18,081 21,592 25,889

YoY (%) 32.8 41 11.6 19.1 19.4 19.9

EBITDA 936 1,100 1,226 1,576 1,915 2,415

EBITDA (%) 9.7 8.1 8.1 8.7 8.9 9.3

Reported PAT 509 630 702 943 1,188 1,570

FDEPS (Rs) 17 21.1 23.5 31.6 39.8 52.6

YoY (%) 19.1 23.8 11.5 34.3 26 32.2

P/E (x) 43.3 35 31.4 23.4 18.5 14

P/B (x) 10.5 8.4 6.9 5.5 4.4 3.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 24.6 21.3 18.8 14.5 11.7 9

RoCE (%) 20.3 21.3 20.5 23.3 24.3 26.5

RoIC (%) 18.5 19.4 18.4 20.7 22 24.4

RoE (%) 26.6 26.7 24.2 26.4 26.5 27.7


CCL Products (India) CMP:Rs91; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$199.7mn

10

Newly commissioned plant to drive growth CCL Products (India) or CCL commissioned its 10,000tn instant

coffee plant in Vietnam in 2HFY14, which is expected to drive consolidated volume by 28.2%/11.4% in FY15E/FY16E versus 3.3%/13.0% in FY13/FY14, respectively.

Vietnam plant offers four benefits: 1) Logistical advantage, 2) Better raw material availability, 3) Favourable duty structure and close proximity to coffee-consuming ASEAN nations, and 4) No income-tax for the first four years and tax exemption of 50% for the next nine years.

Improvement in working capital cycle In the wake of faster ramp-up of Vietnam facility likely from

FY15, we expect consolidated working capital requirement to reduce from 39.7%/32.4% in FY13/FY14 to 27.7%/26% in FY16E/FY17E, respectively.

Lower capex, better working capital to drive healthy cash flow/return ratios With a major portion of capex completed and with healthy

earnings growth, we expect CCL to generate FCF of Rs3.4bn over FY14-FY17E, which will be utilised to repay Rs2.9bn debt and also improve dividend payout.

Foray into retailing of instant coffee CCL has forayed into retailing of branded coffee and aims to

achieve revenue of Rs3bn/Rs5bn in the next three/five years, respectively.




Y/E March (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY146 FY17E

Revenues 5,022 6,507 7,168 9,496 10,682 11,432

YoY (%) 38 29.6 10.2 32.5 12.5 7

EBITDA 871 1,213 1,431 1,805 2,070 2,258

EBITDA (%) 17.4 18.6 20 19 19.4 19.8

Adj PAT 363 474 644 920 1,237 1,498

FDEPS (Rs) 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.9 9.3 11.3

YoY (%) 46.2 30.8 35.8 42.8 34.4 21.1

RoE (%) 15.9 18.3 20.4 23.6 25.8 25.1

RoCE (%) 9.8 11.2 12.3 16.4 20.2 23.3

RoIC (%) 9.6 10.7 12 16.4 19.8 22.4

P/E (x) 33.4 25.5 18.8 13.1 9.8 8.1

P/BV (x) 5 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.3 1.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 16.9 12.4 10.2 7.9 6.4 5.2

Disclaimer: Nirmal Bang Financial Services owns 1.36mn shares (1.02%

stake) in CCL


Adi Finechem CMP: Rs260; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$59.2mn

11

Brownfield capex to provide health volume growth at lower costs

AFL plans to increase its capacity by 80% to 45,000tn at a cost of Rs210mn by September 2014, which is likely to result in a healthy 42% volume CAGR over FY14-FY16E as against a 27.4% CAGR over FY10-FY13.

Healthy cash flow and return ratios RoCE likely to improve by 211bps from 32.8% in FY14 to

34.9% in FY16E.

Healthy operating cash flow/free cash flow of Rs599mn/Rs58mn, respectively, likely over FY14-FY17E.

D/E ratio likely to reduce from 0.9x in FY14 to 0.3x in FY17E.

Value addition and lower costs to drive margins AFL started selling an additional product called

concentrated sterol, which directly aids EBITDA without incurring significant costs. With better product mix, reduction in manufacturing cost, operating margin improved by 799bps to 21.9% in FY14, which is sustainable.

Following lower interest cost and modest capex, net profit would grow by 31% CAGR over FY14-FY17E.




Y/E March (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue 972 1,231 1,518 1,956 2,830 3,396

YoY (%) 69.4 26.7 23.3 28.8 44.7 20

EBITDA 147 171 333 403 583 699

EBITDA (%) 15.2 13.9 21.9 20.6 20.6 20.6

Adj. PAT 74 84 187 225 349 420

FDEPS (Rs) 5.9 6.7 14.9 18 27.8 33.5

YoY (%) 46.2 13.6 122 20.5 54.8 20.5

RoE (%) 35.9 30.9 47.9 39.2 41.5 35

RoCE (%) 23.2 21.6 32.8 29.5 34.9 31.5

RoIC (%) 21.1 19.7 30.4 27.6 33 30.1

P/E (x) 44 38.7 17.5 14.5 9.4 7.8

P/BV (x) 13.7 10.6 6.9 4.8 3.3 2.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 23.6 20.1 10.7 8.7 5.9 4.9


Vesuvius India CMP: Rs721; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$248mn

12

Robust steel output growth likely in coming years

Currently, 25mt steel capacity is set to be deployed over the next two years, which is one-third of current steel output.

We firmly believe that India is at the cusp of an industrial revolution, on the back of the new government’s focus on manufacturing and indigenous use of natural resources, which is expected to result in substantial steel production growth in the coming years.

We expect all the previous MoUs to be revived, which can take India’s steel production as high as 200mt by 2025.

VIL best placed among peers to capitalise on this

VIL is best placed to tap the opportunity that is present in both segments i.e. shaped as well as unshaped.

The company enjoys unparalleled technology support from Vesuvius Plc (largest player globally).

Our channel check suggests that pricing is not an competitive advantage in refractories, which is adopted by some competitors.

Efficient use of capital

Generated an RoE of 19% in the past five years while RoIC stood at 23% in the same period, despite no financial leverage.

We expect RoIC to improve from 21.9% in CY13 to 28.7% in CY16, although RoE is expected to increase by a mere 50bps in the same period on the back of rising cash reserves.


Y/E March (Rsmn) CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E

Revenue 5,638 6,018 6,528 7,247 8,070

YoY (%) 3.8 6.7 8.5 11.0 11.3

EBITDA 970 1,109 1,120 1,320 1,573

EBITDA (%) 17.2 18.4 17.2 18.2 19.5

PAT 558 652 671 821 1,010

EPS (Rs) 27.5 32.1 33.1 40.4 49.8

YoY (%) 1.0 16.9 3.0 22.3 23.1

RoE (%) 17.4 17.6 15.8 16.9 18.1

RoCE (%) 17.4 17.6 15.8 17.0 18.1

RoIC (%) 21.1 21.9 20.8 24.4 28.7

P/E (x) 26.2 22.5 21.8 17.8 14.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.3 12.2 11.7 9.5 7.5


Target Price 856 1,012 1,200


HeidelbergCement India CMP: Rs69; Rating: Buy; M-cap: US$257mn

13

Operating in the best region HeidelbergCement India (HIL) operates in Central India where

capacity utilisation is over 90% currently, while capacity addition remained muted in this region

We remain positive on cement demand driven by the focus on housing, which along with pent-up demand over the past two years would ensure 8%-9% growth in the coming years.

Robust demand and high capacity utilisation will lead to firm cement prices.

Combination of financial as well as operating leverage HIL, after selling its loss-making grinding unit in Raigad, has shown

strong profitability in its existing operations.

HIL’s debt repayment starts from CY16, which is likely to be repaid from internal cash flows, thereby giving financial leverage benefit.

Scope for reduction in costs, particularly power and fuel costs, is high and the company has undertaken the WHR project.

HIL has not announced any expansion till now, but that will be done with support from the parent company.

Strong earnings growth and attractive valuation We have estimated 25%/83% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA,

respectively, over CY13-CY16E, driven by the factors stated above.

Stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x/4.2x CY15E/CY16E earnings, respectively.


Y/E March (Rsmn) CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E

Revenue 8,625 11,936 16,317 20,186 23,419

YoY (%) 11.3 24.1 17.5 24.0 16.3

EBITDA 559 867 2,630 4,127 5,361

EBITDA (%) 6.5 7.3 16.1 20.4 22.9

PAT 308 (407) 492 1,544 2,558

EPS (Rs) 1.4 (1.8) 2.2 6.8 11.3

YoY (%) (10.5) (232.1) (220.8) 214.1 65.7

RoE (%) 3.7 (4.8) 5.6 15.4 21.2

RoCE (%) 1.4 0.7 6.5 10.7 14.5

P/E (x) 50.4 (38.2) 31.6 10.1 6.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 44.9 32.3 10.0 6.1 4.2

EV/tn (US$) 133 86 82 78 70




DISCLAIMER

This presentation is for informational purposes only. Data has been sourced from independent third-parties that

we believe are reliable. However, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed, and not been

independently verified. The information contained herein constitute judgment as at the date of this presentation,

and we reserve the right to amend, change, or cease publication of the information at anytime without notice.

This presentation includes forecasts, investment strategy and future projections which are “forward-looking”

statements. The use of forward-looking terminology reflect current views with respect to future events and are

subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or

achievements to be materially different from that expressed or implied. Risk disclosures are estimates and could

be materially different from what is forecast. As a result, actual future gains or losses could materially differ from

those projected. Statements of past history are not indicative of future performance. This is neither an offer to sell

nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities in any fund.

14


THANK YOU

15

nbies top 10- 1 september 2014

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