NC Schools Dropout Data

School Suspensions and DropoutsIn North Carolina

Charlotte HughesKen Gattis

Program Monitoring & Support DivisionNC Department of Public Instruction

Short-Term Suspensions 2004-05 to 2007-08 Grades 9-12

124,000

126,000

128,000

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

142,000

144,000

146,000

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

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Long-Term Suspensions 2004-05 to 2007-08 Grades 9-12

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

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Dropouts 2004-05 to 2007-08 Grades 9-12

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08

Dro

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Highest and Lowest 5-Year Average Short-Term Suspension (STS) Rates Among School Districts

Lowest Quartile

Highest QuartileMiddle Two Quartiles

Avg. STS Rates

Highest and Lowest 5-Year Average Long-Term Suspension (LTS) Rates Among School Districts

Lowest Quartile

Highest QuartileMiddle Two Quartiles

Avg. LTS Rates

Highest and Lowest 5-Year Average Dropout Rates Among School Districts

Lowest Quartile

Highest QuartileMiddle Two Quartiles

Avg. Dropout Rates

5-Year Average Dropout Rates Related to High/Low LTS or STS Rates

Lowest Quartile

Highest Quartile

Related Rates

5-Year Average Rates Between School Districts

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Dropouts per 1000 62.9 50.7 35.7

LTS per 10,000 78.5 54.1 41.2

STS per 100 42.2 33.4 23.2

High Dropout Rate Quartile

Two Middle Dropout Rate Quartiles

Low Dropout Rate Quartile

Reasons for Suspensions

• Short-term suspensions reported 2007-08 :1. Disruptive Behavior

2. Fighting

3. Insubordination

• Long-term suspensions reported 2007-08:1. Possession of an Illegal Substance

2. Possession of a Weapon

3. Disruptive Behavior

(from NC Suspension Report Data)

Reasons for High School Dropouts

• Top three reasons reported in 2007-08:

1. Attendance problems (10,766)

2. Enrollment in a Community College (3,684)

3. Academic problems (1,623)

• Other reasons reported in 2007-08:– Failure to return after a long-term suspension (770)– Discipline problems (511)– Incarcerated in an adult facility (288)

(from NC Dropout Report Data)

Significant At-Risk Factors

• Attendance

• Behavior

• Academics – Math and Reading

• School Retention

Significant At-Risk Factors

• Attendance66% accuracy by third grade of potential dropouts (Barrington &

Hendricks, 1989)

6th graders who do not attend school regularly -10% chance of graduating on time; 20% chance of graduating a year late (Balfanz, 2006)

• Behavior and Coping Skills1st graders who were rated highly aggressive (Ensminger &

Slusarcick,1992)

17% on-time graduation rate - middle school students

with poor attendance (Balfanz, 2006)

Significant At-Risk Factors

• Academics – Reading and MathReading: 2-years behind - 8% chance of catching up (Dr. George Batshe, 2010)

Middle school -16% on-time graduation rate (Balfanz, 2006)

Math:Middle school – 21% on-time graduation rate ((Balfanz, 2006)

• RetentionK-4 grades – 5x more likely to drop out (Kaufman & Bradby, 1992)

Middle School – retained one year – 11x more likely to drop out of high school (Balfanz, 2006)

retained two years – 90% risk of dropping out of high school (Balfanz, 2006)

Implications of Suspension/Dropout Data Trends

• Current resource focus at the high school level

• Connection to elementary and middle schools

Reducing Suspensions and Dropouts

• 9th Grade Academies• Positive Behavioral Support (PBS) Program• School Teams working with most at-risk students • Finding alternatives for at-risk students

- Alternative Schools / Alternative Learning Programs- Credit Recovery Programs with scheduling flexibility- NC Virtual High School- Alternative Diplomas