New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance

Jeanne Herb

Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy

December 5, 2013

PREVENTION / MITIGATION

An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the

climate system; it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and

emissions and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks.

ADAPTATION

Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected

climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial

opportunities.

Overview

• Network of policymakers: public and private sector practitioners,

academics, NGOs and business leaders to build climate

change preparedness capacity in NJ.

• Formed in response to consensus recommendation by

participants during November 2011 Conference “Preparing NJ for

Climate Change” (http://climatechange.rutgers.edu/njadapt.html)

• Facilitated by Rutgers University

• A Network of Networks: strong partnerships work within existing

delivery systems – USE CIVIC DISCOURSE TO FIND COMMON

GROUND

• Pre-dated Sandy: Focuses on all climate impacts

• Strategic Workplan

Preparing New Jersey For Climate Change

“New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance”

http://njadapt.rutgers.edu/

Advisory Committee

Honorary Co-Chairs: Governors Thomas Kean and James J. Florio

Co-chairs: Kathleen Ellis (NJ Natural Gas), Michael Catania (Duke Farms)

Louis Berger Group PSEG

Ferrerio Engineering PlanSmartNJ

NJ Audubon NJ Assoc of County and City Health Officers

Delaware River Basin Commission Regional Plan Association

Duke Farms Association of Environmental Authorities

Hatch Mott MacDonald American Littoral Society

Ironbound Community Corporation Urban Coast Institute

Isles, Inc. NJ Future

Leckner Consulting, Inc. Norz Hill Farm & Market

The Nature Conservancy of NJ Swiss Reinsurance America

Middlesex Water Company Edgewood Properties

NJ State Chamber of Commerce Terhune Orchards

NJ Natural Gas North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority

Hopewell Township Engineering Dept. Cetner for Urban Environment; TESC

Sustainability Institute at TCNJ Bayshore Recycling

NJ Center for Public Health Preparedness

Vulnerable Sectors in New Jersey

Built Infrastructure •Energy

•Transportation (roads,

railways, ports, freight)

•Telecommunications

•Parks & Preserved Lands

Public Health and

Society •Emergency Preparedness

•Heat Emergencies

•Vector Borne Disease

•Allergies

•Cardiovascular conditions

The Natural Environment •Coastal & freshwater wetlands

•Back bays

•Forests

•Habitats, native species (flora,

fauna)

Agriculture •Food Supply

•NJ commodities

Water Resources •Drinking water quantity

•Water quality

•Inland flooding

•Infrastructure (drinking water,

wastewater, stormwater)

•Ecosystem Impacts

Coastal •Ecosystem services

•Tourism

•Residential and commercial

structures

Precipitation Temperature Drought

Storm Surge Sea Level Rise Heat Waves

Impacts:

Sectors:

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Public Health

· Heat-Related Illnesses

· Infectious Diseases · Air Quality

· Storm-Related Injuries & Stresses

Acute Heat Stress Chronic respiratory & cardiovascular

conditions (e.g. increase in ozone)

Blunt trauma, drownings

Reduced access to health care Increased risk of food & water borne

diseases from runoff

Increased exposure to parasites via

recreational swimming, pathogens

and bacteria

Impacts to water resources (quantity

and quality)

Increased exposure to chemical

contamination

Expanded range of vector-borne and

zoonic diseases

Indirect impacts on physical health

(mold/mildew, carbon monoxide

poisoning, consumption of spoiled

food)

Increased mental health stresses More intense and longer allergy

season

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Natural Resources

· Temperature · Precipitation

· Sea level rise · Extreme weather events

Availability of fresh water supply

Loss of coastal wetlands re: storm

surge, salinity, sea level rise

Impacts to stream flow Warmer stream temperatures

Forest impacts due to drought,

increased temperature, disease,

increased wildfires, storms

Increase in invasive species

Increased runoff and erosion from

changes in precipitation and loss of

vegetation

Loss of vegetative cover

Impacts to habitat for migratory birds Changes to nutrient cycle Impacts to NJ’s growing ecotourism

sector

Challenges to land stewardship Loss of habitat connectivity Potential shift in priorities for open

space acquisition

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Water Resources

· Heat and Drought

· Extreme weather events

· Flooding · Resource Demand

· Precipitation Changes

Salt water intrusion Flooding impact to treatment

infrastructure in low-lying areas

Increased demand Additional stress to aging

infrastructure

Contamination from flooding due to

erosion and contaminants

Greater variability in water levels Overall lower water levels in

reservoirs

Decreasing surface water supplies

and groundwater recharge

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Agriculture

· Increased CO2 production · Warming Temperatures

· Extreme weather events & Sea Level Rise

Decrease in aquatic habitat quality

Destruction of farmland and habitat

from extreme weather events

Decrease in crop quality due to

increased period of short term drought

and high heat

Decreased milk production from

livestock

Ocean acidification and warming

water temperatures resulting in

damages to shellfish and estuarine

environments

Higher operational costs due to

irrigation and pest management

Impacts to plant growth and yield from

increased CO2 levels

Change in migration and feeding

patterns for fisheries

Unsuitable habitat for some current

crops (e.g. heat stress)

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Transportation

· Sea level Rise & Storm Surge

· Temperature Extremes

· Extreme Weather events and flooding

Damage to transportation

infrastructure for supporting power

and telecom

Degraded infrastructure from

temperature extremes (high heat and

freezing/thawing cycles)

Physical damages and losses to

public and private property from

flooding

Equipment failure from heat stress

Kinks and fractured rail tracks from

heat and cold stresses

Expansion and contracting of bridge

infrastructure

Infrastructure damage and washouts

Sagging and failure of rail catenary

lines

Inundation of systems and facilities

Pavement rutting from high heat and

increase fatigue cracking

Kinnelon, NJ

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Utilities

· Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge

· Extreme Weather Events

· Extreme Temperatures

·Flooding · Drought

Equipment Failures and decreased

performance

Damage to infrastructure (intense

precipitation) Inundation of systems and facilities

Infrastructure damage and washouts Power outages from increased

demand

Loss of cooling capacity due to

decreased water flow

Increased requirements on process

waste water flow and quality

Impacts to potable water supply

intakes due to increases in salt

content

Damage to telecommunications

infrastructure from extreme weather

events and high heat

Vulnerabilities from Climate Change:

Impacts to Coastal Communities

· Sea Level Rise

· Extreme Storm Events

Higher base for storm surge from sea

level rise expands areas vulnerable to

flooding

Wind and flooding damage Risk to human life and safety

Physical damages and losses to

public and private property from

flooding, intense precipitation events,

or storm surge

Beach erosion. affecting tourism and

tax revenues Local economic losses

Personal economic losses Public health impacts to individuals Loss of property tax revenues

New Jersey Vulnerabilities

People

• Elderly

• Children

• Poor

• Limited English proficiency

• Health compromised, mobility limited

• Outdoor workers

• People with mental health issues

Places • Urban communities

• Areas of coastal and inland

flooding

Millburn

High Social Vulnerability Areas in New Jersey

Census Tracts with High Social Vulnerability*

Number of Vulnerability Factors or Unique Vulnerability Variables

Number of Census Tracts

Percentage of Census Tracts

Cumulative Number of Census Tracts

No Data** 215 11% 215

0 625 31% 840

1 726 36% 1566

2 340 17% 1906

3+ 104 5% 2010

*High vulnerability is expressed by tracts that fall within the top 20% of a single significant factor or unique variable. The significant factors are 1) Family Structure, Race and Socioeconomic Status; 2) Linguistic Isolation, Ethnicity and Population Density; and 3) Age. The two unique variables that were included in the analysis are Percent of Population Living in Nursing and Skilled-nursing Facilities and Percent Mobile Home Ownership. **If a tract had no data for any one of the three significant factors or two of the unique variables, the entire tract was excluded from the analysis. This does not imply that these tracts are not vulnerable, only that they lack sufficient data for this assessment.

Factors

1. Family Structure (Single Working

Mothers), Race (Black),

Socioeconomic Status (Low)

2. Linguistic Isolation, Ethnicity

(Hispanic), Population Density

(High)

3. Age (Seniors)

Unique Variables

1. Percent Nursing Home Population

2. Percent Mobile Home Population

County Summary of High Social Vulnerability*

Counties

Census Tracts with 2 or more Vulnerability Factors or Unique Vulnerability Variables

Total Census Tracts in County

Percent Highly Vulnerable Census Tracts

Atlantic 25 70 36%

Bergen 24 179 13%

Burlington 13 114 11%

Camden 29 127 23%

Cape May 13 33 39%

Cumberland 16 35 46%

Essex 60 210 29%

Gloucester 12 63 19%

Hudson 46 166 28%

Hunterdon 3 26 12%

Mercer 19 77 25%

Middlesex 20 175 11%

Monmouth 23 144 16%

Morris 14 100 14%

Ocean 32 126 25%

Passaic 30 100 30%

Salem 12 25 48%

Somerset 7 68 10%

Sussex 4 41 10%

Union 32 108 30%

Warren 10 23 43%

Total Census Tracts in New Jersey

444 2010 22%

*High vulnerability is expressed by tracts that fall within the top 20% of a single significant factor or unique variable. The significant factors are 1) Family Structure, Race and Socioeconomic Status; 2) Linguistic Isolation, Ethnicity and Population Density; and 3) Age. The two unique variables that were included in the analysis are Percent of Population Living in Nursing and Skilled-nursing Facilities and Percent Mobile Home Ownership.

High Social Vulnerability Areas in New Jersey

1. Develop recommendations for policy

2. Assess vulnerability and preparedness options for targeted business sectors

3. Conduct communications and education

4. Facilitate demonstration, pilot and other projects

NJCAA Strategic Workplan Elements

NJCAA: Workplan Goals

1. Develop Recommendations for Policy

Sector-

specific

climate

impact data

and leading

practices

Sector

Specific

Workshops

Finalize

Policy

Recommend-

ations

Stakeholder

Engagement

Policy gap analysis

2. Form business partnerships

• Survey

• Spring conference

3. Conduct communications and education

• Statewide survey;

• Practitioner and sector surveys with partners (natural

resources, public health, transportation, agriculture, etc.);

• Partnerships to understand practitioners’ policy needs;

• Practitioner guides (planners, watershed managers, public

health officers, etc.) with partners;

• Community level support;

• Partnership on EJ and Climate Change;

• Email list and website;

• Regular conferences

4. Facilitate demonstration projects

• NJADAPT;

• Networking with partners to identify resources and undertake

projects;

• New Jersey Climate Change Adaptation Directory

Public perceptions

• Trust:

– Scientific community re: science behind climate change [64%]

– Federal/state government to manage shore redevelopment [49%]

– State/local officials understand implications of CC for the region [41%]

– My media to honestly communicate about climate change [33%]

• Beliefs:

– Concern about impact of global climate change on NJ [70%]

– Global climate change is risk to me, my family & friends [64%]

– Recent hurricanes strengthened my belief about climate change [65%]

• Willingness to pay to prepare for a changing climate:

– Raise state income taxes by 1% for 5 years [19%]

– Raise state sales tax by 1% for 5 years [24%]

– Add a special additional tax of 1% of hotels, motels, airports and recreation

facilities for 5 years [53%]

– Approve a multi-billion dollar bond issue to be paid out over 30 years [42%]

– Add a 5-cents-per-gallon tax on gasoline sales in NJ for 5 years [14%]

Support for Land Use, Design and Financial Policy Changes

Summary

data

Strongly

agree, %

Somewhat

agree, %

Allow local governments to require housing in some areas to be built in

ways highly resistant to natural disasters

62.5 22.4

Have the federal and state government identify the areas to not be

developed as they provide natural buffers in the event of storms

61.3 22.3

Relocate water, sewer, natural gas, roads, and other infrastructure away

from the most vulnerable areas of the state

53.0 25.8

Have the government give financial incentives to rebuild in ways that

reduce future risks

49.1 30.8

Allow local governments to prohibit housing in some areas 42.5 26.6

Limit the number of times homeowners in high risk areas may receive

federal disaster relief

38.2 21.5

Have the federal and state government purchase property in vulnerable

areas and turn it into open space

35.0 25.8

Thank you

http://climatechange.rutgers.edu/njadapt

Jeanne Herb

jherb@ejb.rutgers.edu

(848) 932-2725

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