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61PERCEPIONS, Summer 2011, Volume XVI, Number 2, pp. 61-80.

Cengz DN*

urkey as a New Securty Actor n theMddle East: Beyond the Slogans

Introducton

Te Mddle East now occupes a

central place n urksh oregn polcy(FP). Ts s a result o a number oremarkable nternal and external processes.Based upon the accomplshments oprevous governments, such as therapprochement wth Syra, the declne othe PKKs actvtes ater calans arrest,relatvely better relatons wth Iraq, therapprochement wth Greece ater the1999 earthquake, and the EUs grantngo canddacy status n 1999, consecutve

AK Party governments have embarkedupon an acceleratng democratzatonand rapd economc growth process.

Tus wthn a decade, urkey hastransormed tsel nto one o the mostmportant players n the regon at the

economc, poltcal and dscursve levelsthrough the strengthenng o relatonswth Syra, Iran, Egypt, Saud Arabaand other actors, along wth strongrelatons wth Israel (untl recently). Asa result, urkey has been very actve nthe Mddle East and North Arca n thelast decade, tryng to be among the topactors n every mportant regonal ssue.

In ths artcle, I wll try to show thatcurrent polcymakers are tryng to move

Abstract

Te article argues that urkish oreign

policy has moved beyond slogans. An overviewo urkeys relations with Syria, Iraq, Iran andIsrael shows that urkey is increasingly morerelaxed, mature and fexible in its oreignpolicy, and is constantly enhancing its repertoireo policy tools. As ar as security is concerned,relying mainly on sot power, urkish strategy iscloser to the European strategy in that it tries tolook to the security o whole population groupsand their general welare. urkeys domestictransormation, consolidation o democracyand economic growth have been major actorsin the ormulation o this new oreign policyand in the emergence o urkey as a tradingpower, stabilizing orce and peace-promoterin the region. Nevertheless, it is also seenthat urkey is now mature enough to employdierent strategies in its relations with regionalactors and in dealing with security issues.

Key Words

urkey, urksh oregn polcy, MddleEast, Securty, Ahmet Davutolu.

* Assstant Proessor, Department oInternatonal Relatons, Osmangaz Unversty,Eskehr,urkey.


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no matter what happens n the oreseeableuture. It wll be seen that such a exbleoregn polcy s necessary to serve thersng consttuency o the AK Party. Asar as securty s concerned, the new FPs closer to the European strategy thanthe Amercan approach. Te mpacto urkeys new approach to securtyhas been partcularly vsble n recentyears. However, ths convergence wthEurope has manly taken place through

the applcaton ouniversalvalues ratherthan delberate harmonzaton wth theEU, as ths lnk has grown weaker n thelast ve to sx years.

Te New Foregn Polcyas a Re lecton o InternalChange: Democratzatonand Economc Growth

In ths secton t wll be arguedthat urkeys domestc transormaton,speccally the consoldaton odemocracy and economc growth, s thebackground to the new oregn polcy.urkeys domestc reorms have enabled

the new rulng elte to mplement poltcalvews that are radcally derentatedrom the prevous era, and, along wthrapd economc growth, has ncreasedthe power o the country and been theman actor n the emergence o urkeyas a stablzng orce and peace-promotern the regon. In ths process, the AKParty has branded tsel a conservatve

democratc party that avours a vbrantmarket economy and close tes wth

FP beyond such slogans or catchphrasesas neo-Ottomansm, brdge, or evenzero problems. An overvew o urkeysrelatons wth Syra, Iraq, Iran and Israel,whch are chosen or the purpose o thsartcle, show that urkey s ncreasnglymore relaxed, mature and exble n tsoregn polcy, constantly enhancng tsrepertore o tools wthout any obsessonwth slogans that mght restrct tsmanoeuvrng.

wo nternal processes wll beemphaszed as crucal actors nchangng the character o urkey as aregonal actor: democratzaton andeconomc growth. It can be observedthat whle urkey was and s much moredrect wth Syra and openly crtcsesthe regme when necessary, t s morepragmatc wth Iran and advocates a

polcy o mutual non-ntererence.urkey has promoted relatons wthIraq to a consderable extent and tres tohave mutually benecal relatons wththe local government n northern Iraq(the KRG). For urkey, ths relatonshpdepends manly on the ssue o PKKterrorst actvtes. Its tes wth Israel havedeterorated to almost beyond repar

and currently gve the mpresson thatrelatons wth Israel wll not be mended

Wthn a decade, urkey hastransormed tsel nto one othe most mportant players nthe regon.


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Turkey as a New Security Actor in the Middle East

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Greece) or regonal stablty. Intensynga peaceul regonal web o tes sutsurkey as t has a comparatve economcadvantage.

Prevously a more securty-orentedoutlook to oregn polcy oten madeurkey a destablzng orce (a loosecannon) n the regon. Te urksh eltesaw the Kurdsh queston and Islamsmas the man threats wth strong oregnconnectons. Tus, domestc problems

led to tense relatons wth regonal andextra-regonal actors.4 For example, krElekda, the ormer urksh ambassadorto Washngton, when reerrng toa deence-cooperaton agreementconcluded between Greece and Syra n1996, argued that urkey n response hadto prepare or two and a hal wars (.e.,ull-scale wars aganst Syra and Greece,along wth the already ongong lowntensty war wth the PKK).5 As Daargues, or decades FP was drected bya sege mentalty accordng to whchurkey was surrounded by enemes; adescrpton whch was also convenentor domestc purposes as external threats

justed the authortaran regme nsde.

A lberal turn n urksh oregn polcy,as Da calls t, rescued urkey romthese past ears and nsecurtes and hasenabled urkey to look at oregn polcyssues and regonal aars rom derentangles.6

Naturally, FP s rmly dependenton the dynamcs o nternal poltcs: theatttudes o opposton partes and the

nature o the regme and personalteso key ndvduals. It should also be

the West, partcularly the EuropeanUnon. Internatonal dynamcs have alsohelped. Te reorms, requred by the EUmembershp process, have consoldateddemocracy urther and brought, interalia, a gradual normalzaton o cvlan-mltary relatons whch has greatlycontrbuted to urkeys ablty and desreto be relatvely an sland o stabltywthn the Mddle East whch s otendescrbed as beng n turmol.1

Rsng conservatve busness crcleswant to deepen urkeys ntegratonnto the global economc system as theprevous closed economy o urkey wasnot bg enough. Tey have naturallyencouraged the AK Party to pursuea pragmatc, economcs-based mult-drectonal/mult-dmensonal oregn

polcy whch means ncreasng economctes wth derent regons o the world.2Te Mddle East has become one othe most mportant economc areas orurkey and t hopes to benet urtherrom ncreasng economc relatonshpswth the Arab Gul states by attractnga hgher percentage o ther unds ortrade and nvestment.3 In addton,

democratzaton has brought thesupremacy o the cvlan mndset to stateaars ncludng oregn polcy. urkshForegn Mnster Ahmet Davutolusremark that what makes your borderssae s not the number o your tanks,[but ] s the volume o mutual tradeand nvestment wth your neghbourss very smlar to zals emphass on the

mportance o economc tes and people-to-people contact wth neghbours (e.g.


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the neghbourng regons and beyond;4) t should pursue a mult-dmensonaloregn polcy and ts relatons wthglobal actors should be complementary,not compettve; and 5) urkey shouldconduct a rhythmc (sustaned andactve) dplomacy. Accordng to thsnew thnkng, urkey has a unquegeography and has nuence n a largeneghbourhood: urkey s a MddleEastern, Balkan, Caucasan, Central

Asan, Caspan, Medterranean, Gul,and Black Sea country n terms onuence.8 urkey, wth a much bettergeographcal reach than most, shouldbreak away rom a statc and sngle-parameter polcy and become a problemsolver by contrbutng to global andregonal peace. urkey needs to play amore eectve role as an order-nsttutng

country n ts regonal hnterlands, theMddle East, the Balkans, the Caucasusand Central Asa.9

Te act that urkey also had ahelpul external envronment durngthe perod under dscusson has beena crucal boost or the country. Forexample, the EUs 1999 decson to granturkey canddacy status not only marked

the begnnng o an EU-stmulatedprocess o domestc reorm but alsothe Europeanzaton o urksh oregnpolcy. A stable, peaceul regon s nowconsdered essental or urkey to deepents democracy, sustan ts economcgrowth and possbly secure ts accessonto the EU. Beng part o concts or warsn the regon wll ncrease the power othe authortaran elements n urkey.Establshng regonal peace, securty

ponted out that there have emergedbroadly two poltcal camps n urkey.Te rst, the relatvely larger group,ncludes centre-rght poltcans, lberals,and the relgous-conservatves whogenerally support the AK Party and theew other deologcally closer smallerpartes. Ts camp struggles wth the oldelte who generally control the mltaryand judcary. Te other camp, whchs composed o secularsts, the mltary

and cvlan bureaucratc eltes as wellas varous groups o natonalsts whogenerally support the Republcan PeoplesParty, Natonalst Movement Party andthe Workers Party, accuses the AK Partyleadershp o beng mere nstruments orsubcontractors o the US and the EU.7

Te change n FP s n part a

reecton o the emergence o a newelte wth consderably derent vews onoregn polcy. For example, accordngto Davutolus ntellectual ramework,urkeys new oregn polcy approachshould be based on the ollowng veprncples: 1) there should be a balancebetween securty and democracy nurkey; 2) urkey should have a zero

problems wth neghbours polcy; 3)urkey should develop relatons wth

A stable, peaceul regon snow consdered essental orurkey to deepen ts democracy,sustan ts economc growth andpossbly secure ts accesson tothe EU.


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nto ts surroundngs, thereby correctngan anomaly o the Cold War years, bydeepenng poltcal dalogue, ncreasngtrade, and multplyng people-to-people contacts wth neghboursthrough toursm, trade, and culturaland educatonal actvtes.13 Ts meansrestorng geographcal contnuty andenablng the ree ow o people, goodsand servces.

urkey successully sought ncreased

access to Mddle Eastern nvestors andmarkets. As a result nearly 20 percento urkeys exports went to the MddleEast n 2009, some $19.2 bllon wortho goods, compared wth 12.5% n2004. For example, urkey and the GulCooperaton Councl countres have thesame objectves n many elds, accordngto Davutolu. rade between the GCCand urkey grew rom $1.5 bllon n1999 to $17.5 bllon n 2008; mportsrom urkey ncreased 15-old.14 Tseconomc strategy has served the partyconsttuency who expect the governmentto provde necessary base, or sustanedgrowth, whch requres an open marketwth strong economc tes abroad.

It should be ponted out thatthe recent urksh relance on non-conrontatonal means has not beenbecause urkey lacks hard-powernstruments. On the contrary, urkeyhas an mpressve conventonal orce.For example, t has the second largestnventory o F-16 ghters n the world(about 240) and s capable o regonal

strkes (deep battle).15 It does not preerto use t as mltary operatons wreak

and stablty s also a means to osterurksh democracy and hence securethe supremacy o cvlan governments.10Te declne o the mltarys nuence nurkey has acltated both a broadenngand a sotenng o urksh oregnpolcy. Whereas n the past, urkey hadtended to rely heavly on hard power, thas been ncreasngly seekng dplomatcsolutons to problems, especally wthts neghbours n the last ew years.

Ankara has also sought to act as a brokeror medator n regonal dsputes. Forexample, urkey persuaded the IraqSunns not to boycott the electonsand when urksh authortes vstedcountres such as Lebanon, Pakstan or

Aghanstan, all actons wanted to meetwth them.11

Democratzaton and the need to

ensure the contnuaton o economcgrowth made the AK Party governmentsmore pragmatc, as compared to themore deologcal stances o governmentsn the past. Ts pragmatsm shows tselrequently n dealngs wth the MddleEast. For example, although the AKParty elte see the Muslm and Ottomandmenson as postve actors or ts

rapprochement wth the Mddle East,one promnent AK Party member arguesthat urkey has no ambton o benga model or the Islamc world: Sucha move may hurt eelngs o Muslmcountres. urkey successully combnedIslamc culture wth democracy. It canonly be related to ths debate n thsramework.12 AK Party members arguethat urkey s not seekng to revve theOttoman Empre but ts rentegraton


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relatons. However, as one urkshofcal puts t, I some say the economys the man goal o our expanson, Icould easly counter that securty sequally mportant. In other words, thesecurty dmenson o oregn polcyntatves s always consdered. urkeydecded to be more actve n the regonbecause, as another ofcal sad, urkeywants stablty as a country whch hassuered most rom regonal turmol and

whch was mportng lots o securtyproblems rom the Mddle East, arms,terrorst tranng.17 Tus, urkey seeksstablty and a more promnent roleamong the nuental regonal actorswhose populatons and economc powers shown at Fgure 1.

havoc n the regon and adversely aectthe urksh economy. Nevertheless,

needed, urksh hard power can serve tsoregn polcy prncples and nterests.For example, ar strkes have been usedaganst PKK strongholds n northernIraq. Tese moves are n lne wth the

AK Party phlosophy that the urkshstate must have both mght (kudret) andcompasson (ekat).16

urkeys actvsm and relyngmanly on sot power n the regon havebeen buldng or more than a decade.Te new generaton o busnessmen,dplomats and televson stars are allmakng connectons n the regonthat wll construct deep and endurng

Figure 1: Comparson o urkey, Iran, Gul Cooperaton Countres, Egypt, Iraq, Syra and Israel n termso populaton (mllons) and GDP (PPP n $10 bllon n 2009).18


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Erdoan, the destnes o the countres nthe regon are ntertwned.21 Erdoan hasargued that urkeys growng nuence nts south and east s actually takng theburden o the shoulders o the EU.22Indeed, an ntense economc, poltcaland cultural relatonshp s the bass orcreatng a zone o stablty and prosperty(and eventually perhaps reedom) n thesouthern neghbours. Ts strategy s alsomuch lke the EUs am o promotng a

rng o rends.23

Tus, urkey has been launchng

ntatve ater ntatve amed atstablzng the Mddle East. It has beenacltatng eorts to reduce concts,expand vsa-ree travel, ncrease tradeand ntegrate nrastructure.24 It hasbeen actvely tryng to cooperate wthregonal countres n multple areasncludng bankng, telecommuncatons,constructon and securty. Tesentatves, whch show that urkeys roleas a regonal securty actor s changngthrough, inter alia, Europeanzaton,and that urkey can also contrbute toEuropean energy securty as a transtcountry. For example, wth the Nabucco

ppelne project, sgned n July 2009,urkey wll help to dversy energysources to southeast and central Europe.25Tus, urkey ams to satsy ts ownenergy requrements and collect transtrevenues by servng as an energy hub.

urkey has rather successully actedas a acltator n tryng to help solvngproblems between regonal actors. It has

pursued and pursues postve neutraltyn the regon. urksh nvolvement n

Securty throughEuropean Ways

Whle Fuller argued that aneconomcally more vbrant urkeyhas strategcally become part o theMddle East wth a role o regonaleconomc model,19 or many observersand urksh leaders urkey s alsormly wthn Europe. Its canddacyand accesson process to the EU clearlyshows ths. Just by ts exstence, the EUprovdes a unque paradgm or urksand Kurds. Te EU s seen as a project oprogressvely abolshng all borders andovercomng deep hstorcal anmostes.Te EU has attaned peace, stablty andprosperty; a smlar transormaton canbe accomplshed n the Mddle East, too, the actors cooperate. Whle urkey hasattaned the status o a major tradngpower and s less dependent on the USor EU market, ts approach to the regonthrough engagement and medaton norder to attan stablty and prospertythrough ree travel, economc ntegraton,and polcy coordnaton looks more lkethe EUs recpe or conct resoluton n

the last 60 years.urkeys poston n the Mddle

East must rest on our man prncples(as ormulated by Davutolu): securtyor everyone; prorty or dalogue asa means o solvng crses; economcnterdependence as order n the MddleEast cannot be acheved n an atmosphereo solated economes; and cultural

coexstence and pluralty.20 Accordngto urksh Prme Mnster Recep ayyp


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democratc values, supremacy o law,respect o human rghts, transparency,

gender equalty, and a unctonngree market economy, whch couldbe nterpreted as a reconrmaton ourkeys EU membershp goal.27 urkeyhas been argung that the Islamc worldneeds to radcally transorm tsel n theelds o economcs, poltcs, culture andeducaton, as Abdullah Gl declared,put the house n order, to meet global

challenges. Tus, urkeys securtystrategy n the Mddle East does notundermne ts NAO status or desreto jon the EU. Rather, by becomngan exporter o securty rather than aconsumer n the regon, the urkshstrategy s wnnng more prase rom theUS and Europe than t receves rom the

authortaran regmes n the area.urkeys move towards a more

developed democratc system and reemarket has also had a regonal mpact.In recent years, promnent personaltesn the Mddle East have dscussed themportance o urkey as a model orexample or the transormaton o the

Arab world. urkeys credentals arebased on t beng a democratc (secular)Muslm country wth a successul lberaleconomy. urkey provdes an attractvepoltcal and economc model or bothsecularsts and Islamsts n the regon. Inact, as the prme mnster o a secularcountry and thanks to hs own relgouscredentals as a pous Muslm, Erdoan

comortably speaks about the dangerso sectaransm n the regon and advses

regonal ssues has ranged rom eorts tomedate between the Arabs/Palestnansand Israels, between the Sunns andShtes n Iraq, between Aghanstanand Pakstan, and between Bosna andSerba. Even though not all o thesemedaton eorts have been successul,they have helped urkey gan vsbltyand prestge.26 It has become clear thatn recent years urkey has taken thevew that a new and better order n

the regon can deally be establshedby nsttutonalzng representatvedemocracy across the area. Yet, urkeys realstc enough to also mantan goodrelatons wth non-democratc regmes(e.g. Saud Araba and other GulCooperaton Councl members) andmajor powers.

urkeys tes to Europe and the USmay have become less vsble but thatdoesnt mean urkey has changed tsundamental drecton. As the urkshPresdent Abdullah Gl sad, Whaturkey s dong s clear. urkey, surely,s movng smultaneously n everydrecton, towards East and West,North and South but the mportant

pont s to whch drecton ts values aremovng. He dened that drecton as

urkey has taken the vew that anew and better order n the regoncan deally be establshed bynsttutonalzng representatvedemocracy across the area.


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For example, Pope argues that urkey,wth ts robust democracy, genunely

elected leader, and products that arepopular rom Aghanstan to Morocco(ncludng dozens o V seres), s theenvy o the Arab world. Salem arguesthat urkey s well placed to make abd or a leadershp role. andar pontsout that the emergence o urkey n thenternatonal arena as an autonomousregonal power has been due to the

declne or at least the suspenson oAmercan nuence n the regon, theneectveness o EU polcy n theregon, and the destructon o the Sunndomnance n Iraq ollowng the war n2003, leavng the space open or ShteIrans nuence.30 In ths vew, urkeys enterng the Mddle East vacated

by tradtonal Sunn powers, Egyptand Saud Araba, as the new centralpower. Whle there have been manycommentators rom the Arab world thatsupports the vews above, such clams,especally they come rom ofcals,are counterproductve; urksh leadersoten reuse to say that urkey ams or

leadershp or s a model n the regon.Ts move seems prudent as Caro, orexample, was anxous about urkshnvolvement n Arab aars n waysthat mght sht the geopoltcal balance.urkeys actvsm could overshadow tsrole n the Palestnan ssue. Ater realzngEgypts concerns, urkey was careul toargue that ts role was complementary to

that o Egypt. urkey was not tryng tosteal a role rom Egypt.31

peaceul coexstence despte ethnc,sectaran cultural derences.28 As Krc

argues, urkey has a demonstratve eectn the regon despte ts shortcomngs.A survey conducted n seven Arabcountres reveals that 61 percent o therespondents consdered urkey to bea model or Arab countres, wth 63percent o the respondents agreeng thaturkey consttuted a successul exampleo coexstence o democracy and Islam.

Krc ponts out that the radngState (dened as a state whose oregnpolcy becomes ncreasngly shaped byeconomc consderaton and a countryn whose GNP oregn trade acquresan mportant place) dmenson smportant or urkeys mage. It alsoprovdes an economc dmenson to

the demonstratve eect. It s seen thaturksh democracy s ourshng wththe growth o ts economy; as per captancome rses, ndvduals become moresel-condent and open to the world. Percapta ncome n urkey ncreased rom

just around $1,300 n 1985 to $2,773n 1995 and almost $11,000 n 2008.Krc also remnds us that urkeys vsa-

ree travel polcy and popular urkshV seres renorce the postve mage othe country n the Arab world.29

As many commentators agree,urkey s perhaps the only country n theentre Mddle East that has ntegratedwth modernty. It has a unctonal anddemocratc poltcal system, a productve

economy, and has ound a workablebalance between relgon and secularsm.


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good results. For example, the Syrangovernment was closely ollowng theurksh government wth regard to thePKK ssue so much so that t declared, nsupport o a soluton, that t mght grantamnesty to some 1,500 Syran natonalswthn the PKK the organzaton laddown ts arms. On ltng vsas n 2010,Davutolus words show a glmpse o thenew thnkng on urkeys part: I wouldlke to address the Syran people. urkey

s your second country [] we areltng the borders whch were artcallyput and becomng the people o onehnterland. We are turnng the economccooperaton to an economc unty. Weare hopng that ths wll be a model orall our neghbours.33

However, the low nsttutonalzatono cooperaton wth authortaran

regmes because o ther personalcharacter showed ts ace also n urco-Syran relatons. Whle urkey had beenadvsng and hopng that the Assadregme could manage a gradual andpeaceul transton to a more democratcstructure, the Syran government seemedto be unwllng or unable to enact thenecessary reorms requred or the

transton o the country to normalcy.For example, accordng to Erdoan,

Relatons wth Syra:Ups and Downs

Te urksh-Syran relatonshptoday s the best example o how theregonal poltcal landscape can qucklychange and change agan. Wthn 10-12 years, urkeys relatons wth Syraevolved rom the brnk o war to ullharmony, accordng to Davutolu, justbeore the Arab Sprng came to Syra.Syra, whch s ruled by a Shte mnortyand has been tradtonally close to Iran,was under ntense Amercan pressure as arogue state. Nevertheless, urkey had aconstructve polcy toward Syra because,as Davutolu stated, Tere are twovsons regardng the regon. One vsons the msson o buldng welare, peaceand stablty and the other vson sbased on creatng dsputes and uneasness[] the rst vson wll narrow thezone o the second vson. It must be acommon am, he added, to get out othe vcous crcle and turn the regon anarea o stablty and prosperty.32

Durng ths tme, urksh-Syranrelatons progressed to an unprecedented

level. Tere were jont cabnet meetngsand relatons mproved n many areas,rom securty, energy, and bankngto hgher educaton. urkeys greatcontrbuton to the ongong process orentegratng Syra nto the nternatonalsystem despte the puntve agenda othe Western powers has also helpedto promote ts own constructve and

peaceul mage n the Arab world. urkeysSyra polcy produced unthnkably

Te low nsttutonalzaton ocooperaton wth authortaranregmes because o ther personalcharacter showed ts ace also nurco-Syran relatons.


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lately ncreased ts contacts wth Araband Kurdsh authortes n the countryand tred to convnce them to cooperatemore n the ght aganst the PKK. Inths respect, urkeys new stance becameobvous ater 2007.35

As Akyol argues, urkeys decades-old Kurdophoba and the old paradgmbased on a paranod mndset that sawthe world as ull o enemes mght bepassng.36 Te ntertwnng o PKK

terrorsm wth the Kurdsh questonhas been the most mportant thorn nurkeys relatons wth some o ts MddleEastern neghbours. Less xaton wththe Kurdsh queston s necessary orurkey to engage wth the regon moreeectvely. Tus, urksh polcymakersn recent years admtted that the PKKshould be tackled by nstrumentsother than mltarly. Ts has becomesynonymous wth a sotenng approachto the Kurdsh queston n urkey anda new polcy o rapprochement andcooperaton wth the Kurdstan RegonalGovernment (KRG).37

Pror to 2008, the Erdoangovernment, and especally the urksh

mltary, had been wary o establshngdrect contacts wth KRG authortes,earng that ths would strengthen theKRGs drve or ndependence. In 2007,then Foregn Mnster Abdullah Glcancelled the scheduled vst to urkeyo KRG Prme Mnster NechrvanBarzan when the che o the urkshgeneral sta announced hs opposton

to such contacts. Only ater Gl becamepresdent dd he nvte Jalal alaban

Assad could use the act that he s aNusayr whle hs we s a Sunn topromote sectaran tolerance n the Syra.However, as the wave o the Arab Sprnght Syra n March 2011, the oppostonn Syra seemed to preer to clash wththe regme rather than wat or state-ntated reorms that mght nevercome. As experts ponted out the rsksa state collapse would pose or urkey,especally the possblty o an nux o

reugees across the lengthy border, theurksh government mmedately sadthat urkey would not to put a lmton the number o reugees and wouldwelcome all who seek saety across theborder. It dd not hestate ths tme toput an authortaran regme under thespotlght by drawng attenton to thepossble reugee nux.34

Relatons wth Iraq and theIssue o PKK errorsm

Relatons wth Iraq have a crtcalmportance or urkey, partly becauseevents n northern Iraq could be expectedto have serous eects on urkeys nternal

Kurdsh problem, and partly becauseo the substantal nterdependenceo the urksh and Iraq economes.Prevously, urkey had reraned romhavng contacts wth Kurdsh authortesn Northern Iraq, but n order toacheve ts oregn polcy ams, Ankarahas started to act n lne wth the newrealtes n Iraq. Instead o relyng on

mltary means to overcome the threat oterrorsm rom northern Iraq, urkey has


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nternatonal markets. An economcallyprosperous Northern Iraq wll contnueto be a valuable market or urkey. Telong-standng strategy o allowng tsbusnessmen to bnd the Iraq Kurdsheconomy tghtly nto urkey acqured areal poltcal dmenson as dalogue wthIraqs Kurdstan Regonal Governmentbegan. In March 2010, ths reached ahgh pont wth the arrval o a urkshconsul-general n Arbl, the seat o the

Iraq Kurdsh admnstraton.

41

A soluton to PKK terrorst

actvtes, manly through poltcalreorms regardng the Kurdsh mnortyn urkey, s perhaps the most mportantagenda tem or urkey. Te AKPartys popularty n both urksh andKurdsh consttuences has rased theoptmsm or a settlement. Although

the governments Kurdsh Openngs amed at the dsbandment anddsarmng o the PKK through solvngthe more general problem o the Kurdshqueston, the ntatve has aced strongnatonalst opposton rom the Natonal

Acton Party (MHP) and parts o theRepublcan Peoples Party (CHP). Tentatve has also been unpopular wth

the urksh publc whch has becomemore natonalstc n recent decades.Nevertheless, havng strong enoughpoltcal support rom the electorate, thegovernment s tryng to solve the deepestdomestc problem o the country,ntegratng the Kurds, through a baschuman rghts perspectve.42 It could beseen that the AK Partys more overalllberal approach to the Kurdsh questons prased by many commentators rom

to make an ofcal vst n 2008. Tspostve development led alaban toopenly advse Kurdsh poltcans and thePKK to make most o the opportuntyand ntensy dalogue wth the AK Partygovernment or a soluton to the Kurdshproblem.

Overall, the AK Party s morewllng to co-opt the Kurds and playbg brother to them n lne wth themore accommodatve character o tsconservatve deology. Snce late 2008,however, the Erdoan government has

begun to ntensy such contacts.38

Ithas become clear that there shouldalso be a zero-problems wth Kurdspolcy.39 Ts also makes economcsense as urkey benets rom expandngtrade wth northern Iraq. For example,accordng to a newly renewed contract,urkey wll receve $450 mllon per yearrom the Krkuk-Yumurtalk ppelne.

Better relatons wth the KRG and Iraqgovernment would also allow urkey toprotect the nterests o the urcoman nIraq.40 Normalzaton serves both sdes.

As the KRG has ol reserves, t needsto be able to extract and transport t to

Western markets. Ol ppelnes romnorthern Iraq already ow nto urkshports on the Medterranean and theyprovde the most efcent and cost-eectve means o gettng Iraq ol to

An economcally prosperousNorthern Iraq wll contnue to

be a valuable market or urkey.


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crucal to ths strategy. Naturally urkeypreers the rehabltaton o Iran wthts rentegraton nto the nternatonalsystem and as a ully cooperatve playern the global energy market. urkey hasbeen opposng the Amercan pressureaganst energy deals and nvestment nIran snce the laste urksh Prme MnsterNecmettn Erbakan was prme mnster.Ts poston was recently reterated by

Ahmet Davutolu, who sad that as a

growng economy and surrounded byenergy resources, urkey needs Irananenergy as a natural extenson o tsnatonal nterests. Tereore, urkeysenergy agreements wth Iran cannot bedependent upon ts relatonshps wthother countres.45 As Iran s expectedto provde a sgncant porton o thegas supply or the Nabucco project, ts

poston s also crucal or Europeanenergy securty. Snce the Ankara-ehranrapprochement s manly a pragmatcpolcy based on mutual natonal nterests,urkey has been busy urther developngtrade relatons, whch has reached $10bllon per year.46

However, n the last ew years,urkeys poston has become moredelcate wth the acceleraton o theIranan nuclear program. urkey has

supported the dea o makng theMddle East a nuclear weapons ree zone.

derent deologcal backgrounds. In thelong run t s expected that the recentreorms would undermne the publcbase o the PKK and consderably reducets capacty. A PKK under pressure wllbe less able to sabotage a peace processn urkey.43 As urkey needs the supporto Iraq authortes aganst the PKK, theremarks by Iraq Kurdsh leaders that theycould put pressure on the organzaton a comprehensve democratc soluton s

reached wthn urkey can be seen as apostve step. In a broad sense, n recentyears urkey has understood that t needsto help the smooth unctonng o a strongand unyng government n Iraq, whchs vtal to preserve the regonal balanceo power.44 Ankara has also realzed thatthe support and cooperaton o the KRGgovernment n eradcatng the PKK s

crtcal, whch n return requres morepostve engagement wth the regonalauthorty.

Relatons wth Iran:A Delcate Balance

As urkey and Iran show smlartes

n terms o ther sze, ndustral base,populaton and (conventonal) mltarypowers, competton between them seemsnatural. However, or urkey, Iran, unlkemost other Mddle Eastern countres, s alarge and mportant neghbour and hencehas to be managed, not conronted. Asurkey mports around 93 percent ots ol and gas needs, and ts demand

or energy contnues to ncrease, t alsowants to be an energy corrdor; Iran s

urkey preers the rehabltatono Iran wth ts rentegratonnto the nternatonal system.


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rom Iran as the leaked letter o Obamato da Slva clearly showed. Te US and

the other Western powers preerred tompose urther sanctons on Iran n theUN Securty Councl, whch was passedby a vote o 12 to 2, wth urkey and Brazlvotng aganst and Lebanon abstanng.49urkey was heavly crtczed n some

Western crcles or protectng Iran andopposng the US more than even Russaor Chna dd on ths ssue. However, tshould not be orgotten that whle Iranclashes wth Israel and the West, takes anaggressve stance mltarly towards the

West n Iraq, n Gaza and n Lebanonthrough ts tes wth Iraq Shtes,Hamas or Hezbollah respectvely, urkeyprovdes almost a completely oppostepcture n all o the ssues above by tryng

to promote democracy and stablty nthese areas.

Tus many crtcs nd urkeysIranan polcy rsky and dfcult tomantan as urkey also wants to havegood relatons wth the Gul countres(e.g. Saud Araba) and Egypt whch allear a nuclear-armed Iran.50 As urkeygenerally tres to strke a balance nregonal aars, the government declaredthat urkey would naturally comply wththe resoluton. Tere are some sgns thaturksh leaders are also uncomortablewth Iran acqurng nuclear weaponsas nobody can guarantee that Iranwould not use the ssue aganst urksh

nterests n the regon.51 urkey preersthat Iran, too, gves prorty to regonal

Unlke many other actors, Erdoandd not hestate to crtcse Israels

assumed nuclear arsenal. urkey s alsoa prncpled advocate o the peaceuluse o nuclear energy as the AK Partygovernment plans to construct nuclearpower statons despte the opposton oenvronmental groups. In act, t couldbe argued that the urksh government,smlar to Amercan polcy, has beentryng to balance Iranan nuence nthe regon. However, as Yetkn observes,the urksh Prme Mnster has tredto say to the West lets prevent thenuclearzaton o Iran but we do ths byorce, the whole world wll be a zone owar.47 Akgn argues that nothng n theworld s more natural than urkey sayngto the US to consult me too you are

plannng an embargo or a bombng ormy neghbours.48

As Presdent Gl explaned, urkeygot nvolved n the ssue because t wouldbe among the bggest losers n case o amajor war. o the surprse o the world,urkey together wth Brazl brokeredthe 17 May 2010 nuclear swap dealunder whch Iran agreed to shp 1,200klograms o low enrched uranum tourkey, and n turn would receve 120klograms o nuclear uel or ts reactorn ehran. Tus, Brazl and urkey haveshowed that they too have the ablty tonuence global aars. Ts move wassnubbed by the Unted States and other

bg powers, although the content o thedeal was what the US had earler sought


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2009 at the Davos Forum, Erdoan,repeatedly demanded one mnute

more rom the moderator, and shoutedto Presdent Peres that you know wellhow to kll people. Accordng to Brand,by takng up the cause o Palestnans,Erdoan brought about a peace betweenurkey and the Arab street whch usedto see secular urkey as no more than anobedent servant to the West.52

Te lowest pont n the relatonscame wth the Mavi MarmaraIncdent

o 31 May 2010 when Israel DeenceForce commandos klled nne urkshctzens n nternatonal waters. Aterthe ncdent, Davutolu sad thatunless there s an Israel apology andcompensaton, urkey wll try to solateIsrael n every nternatonal platorm.urksh atttude vs--vs Israel mghtseem over-condent; yet, accordngto commentators lke andar, t mustbe preerred to the usual nerortycomplex that marked the prevousperods.53 Wth hndsght, commentatorspont out that the golden age n urksh-Israel relatons n the 1990s wasexceptonal.54 Te relatons betweenthe two countres dd not run deep.

Israel has not been as open to urkshtechnology and busness deals as would

economc relatons and rely on sot-power nstruments. However, Iranan

strategy seems ocused on emergng as amore domnant hard-power player n theregon, especally n the Gul.

Relatons wth Israel:Te Odd One Out?

In lne wth ts new strategy o

dealng wth the mportant ssues o theregon, urkey has been nvolved n thePalestnan queston. Havng alreadyestablshed tes wth Israel, urkey hasalso enhanced ts dalogue wth thePalestnans, ncludng wth Hamaswhch s consdered an llegtmate enttyby Israel. On a related chapter n Arab-

Israel relatons, Erdoan and Davutolumade t clear that the Israel governmentled them to beleve that urkey hadbrought Israel and Syra to the brnk oace-to-ace talks or even a peace deal.

Yet wth no warnng, Israel launchedOperaton Cast Lead n Gaza whchmoved urksh publc opnon urthertowards the Palestnans and galvanzedthe percepton that grave njustce sbeng done to the Palestnans. It seemsthat the urksh sde took a strategcdecson that Israel, wth ts currentpolces toward the Palestnans, towardSyra, toward Iran and wth ts mageamong the Arab publc, was the odd oneout n the regon. Tus, the operaton

was presented as the turnng pont orrelatons. Just a ew weeks later, n January

urkey s actng as an asprantpower whereas Israel s a staunchsupporter o the status quo.


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populatons n the regon drectly, whchn the long run wll make urkey more

nuental n the regon.As the Mavi MarmaraIncdent put

the urksh government n a very dfcultposton n the eyes o the urksh publc,urkey stll wats or an apology romIsrael by constantly emphaszng thatalure to do so would result n urthermeasures aganst Israel. urkey also

mpled that t would support Palestnanstatehood. Tus, t s dfcult to arguethat urkey provdes any space or aace-savng apology rom Israel. On thecontrary, t s clear that that urkey wllnot shy away rom takng part n MddleEastern ssues, even though Israel s onthe opposte ront n some ssues.

Concluson

It has been argued that n theormulaton o FP, urksh leaders havencreasngly gone beyond the slogansand reraned rom presentng urkey asthe new leader or model or the regon.wo processes have been partcularlymportant n shapng ths new polcy:democratzaton and economc growth.Te consttuency o the AK Partynaturally demands a contnuaton othese processes whch have also beeneectve n transormng urkeysstance n the regon as a securty actor.Both democratzaton and the desre

to promote ntensve economc teswth the countres n the regon requre

be needed to oster stronger nancal tesbetween busnesses and corporatons.

Te relatonshp has been largely lmtedto the mltary realm.55 It appears thaturkey s actng as an asprant powerwhereas Israel s a staunch supporter othe status quo. Israel does not seem towant a lastng agreement or peace butpreers a contnuaton o the stuatonwth ts currently superor mltaryposton. Overall, urksh perceptonshted toward the vews that rather thanhelpng, Israel was resstng the rse ourkey. Israel now seems to be the oddone out both n the regon and n theoregn polcy strategy o urkey.

urkeys attempts at establshng anew order n the Mddle East mean thatIsrael can no longer act as a sui generisactor n the area above other regonalactors wthout rskng urther rctonswth urkey. By drawng attenton tothe plght o the Palestnans and bydescrbng Gaza as an open prson,urkey has become the most vocal andpersstent crtc o Israel. Wth hs darngcrtcsm o Israel, Erdoan became ahero or the Arab street, whch n manycountres became ull o urksh ags

and Erdoan posters.56 Tus, the urkshPrme Mnster can address the Muslm

Both democratzaton and the

desre to promote ntensveeconomc tes wth the countresn the regon requre stablty.


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stablty. Ts encourages urkey topursue a moderate oregn polcy. Tus,

urkeys approach to regonal securty sgettng closer to the European style oconstructng regonal stablty througheconomc nterdependence and theapplcaton o unversal values such asdemocracy, human rghts and the rule

o law. Although to a great extent theurksh relance on sot power and ts

eorts to promote peace and stablty arethe atttudes the regon exactly needs, ts also seen that as the urkey becomesmore sel-condent, relaxed and exble,the possblty o usng hard power hasnot been completely ruled out.


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Endnotes

1 mer apnar, urkeys Mddle East Polces between Neo-Ottomansm and Kemalsm, CarnegiePapers, No. 10 (September 2008), p.8.

2 ark Ouzlu, Is Tere a Sht o Axs n urksh Foregn Polcy?, at http://orsam.org.tr/en/showArtcle.aspx?ID=274 [last vsted 11 March 2011].

3 See, Martn Lenore, urkey and Gul Cooperaton Councl Securty, urkishStudies, Vol. 10, No. 1(March 2009), pp. 75- 93.

4 Blent Aras, Te Davutolu Era n urksh Foregn Polcy, SEA Policy Brie, No. 32 (May 2009).

5 Hasan Ksebalaban, Te Crss n urksh-Israel Relatons: What Is Its Strategc Sgncance?,Middle East Policy, Vol. 17, No. 3 (Fall 2010), pp. 26-50.

6 hsan Da, Te Lberal urn n urksh Foregn Polcy, odays Zaman, 23 February 2009.7 Morton Abramowtz and Henr J. Barkey, urkeys ransormers, ForeignAairs, Vol. 88, No. 6

(November/ December 2009), pp. 118-128.

8 Ahmet Davutolu, urkeys Foregn Polcy Vson: An Assessment o 2007, Insighturkey, Vol. 10,No. 1 (January- March 2008), pp. 77-96.

9 Wllam Hale, urkey and the Mddle East n the New Era, Insighturkey, Vol. 11, No. 3 (July-September 2009), pp. 143-159.

10 Da, Te Lberal urn n urksh Foregn Polcy.

11 Cengz andar, k rkye; ks de rkye..., Radikal, 30 June 2010; Sam Kohen, D Poltkada

Yen Sektr: Arabuluculuk,Milliyet, 9 February 2010.

12 See, http://www.akpart.org.tr/dslskler/ortadogu-_1144.html (last vsted 4 Aprl 2011).

13 Suat Knklolu, Neo-Ottoman urkey?, at http://www.project-syndcate.org/commentary/knkloglu2/Englsh [last vsted 5 March 2011].

14 Gul, urkey Hold New Round o Partnershp alks, HrriyetDailyNews, 18 November 2010.

15 Edward Erckson, urkey as a Regonal Hegemon- 2014: Strategc Implcatons or the Unted States,urkishStudies, Vol. 5, No.3 (2004), pp. 25-45.

16 Ahmet Davutolus speech at Dede Park Hotel, Eskehr, 15 May 2011.

17 Internatonal Crss Group, urkey and the Middle East: Ambitions and Constraints, Europe Report No.203, 7 Aprl 2010.

18 Data compled rom www.worldbank.org and varous sources.

19 Graham E. Fuller, urkeys Strategc Model: Myths and Realtes, Te Washington Quarterly, Vol. 27,No.3 (Summer 2004), pp. 5164.

20 Davutolu, urkeys Foregn Polcy Vson: An Assessment o 2007.

21 Erdoan Arap Brl Zrvesnde sral Eletrd, at www.bbc.co.uk/turkce/haberler/ [last vsted 20March 2011].

22 Cengz andar, urkeys Sot Power Strategy: A New Vson or a Mult-Polar World, SEA PolicyBrie, No. 38 (December 2009).

23 Roger Cohen, urkey Steps Out, New York imes, 25 October 2010.


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24 Internatonal Crss Group, urkey and the Middle East.

25 Meltem Mtler-Ba and Denz Bakan, Te Future o Energy Securty or Europe: urkeys Role asan Energy Corrdor,Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 47, No. 2 (March 2011), pp. 361-378.

26 Stephen F. Larrabee, urkeys New Geopoltcs, Survival, Vol. 52, No. 2 (Aprl- May 2010), pp. 157-180.

27 See, andar, urkeysSot Power Strategy.

28 mer apnar, Te urksh Model and the Arab World (1), odays Zaman, 3 July 2011.

29 Kemal Krc, urkeys Demonstratve Eect and the ransormaton o the Mddle East, Insighturkey, Vol. 13, No. 2 (Aprl- June 2011), pp. 33-55.

30 andar, urkeys Sot Power Strategy.

31 Melha Altunk and Esra Cuhadar, urkeys Search or a Trd Party Role n Arab- Israel Concts: A

Neutral Facltator or a Prncpal Power Medator?,MediterraneanPolitics, Vol. 15, No. 3 (November2010), pp. 371-392.

32 urkey, Syra Vow Cooperaton wll Repel errorsm n the Regon, odaysZaman, 4 October2010.

33 See, zlem r, urksh-Syran Relatons- Where Are We Gong?, UNISCI Discussion Papers, No.23 (May 2010), pp. 163-175.

34 Whereas n the case o Lbya, or example, the urksh government receved both nternal and externalcrtcsm or not openly crtczng Qadda and opposng a NAO nterventon when the Arab Sprnght that country.


36 Mustaa Akyol, A Bt Closer to the Axs o Evl?, Hurriyet Daily News, 24 August 2010.

37 Cengz andar, Te Kurdsh Queston: Te Reasons and Fortunes o the Openng, Insighturkey,Vol. 11, No. 4 (October- December 2009), pp. 13-19.

38 Larrabee, urkeys New Geopoltcs.

39 Abramowtz and Barkey, pp. 118-128.

40 For urkeys poston wth regard to the urcoman, see or example, Abdullah Gl, urkey: Vtal Allyn the Cause o Long-erm Stablty,American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol. 29, No.3 (May 2007), pp.175-181.


42 andar, Te Kurdsh Queston.

43 Ersel Aydnl and Nhat Al zcan, Te Conct Resoluton and Counterterrorsm Dlemma: urkeyFaces ts Kurdsh Queston, errorism and Political Violence, Vol. 23, No.3 (2011), pp. 438-457.

44 Hale, urkey and the Mddle East n the New Era.

45 Serdar Poyraz, urksh-Iranan Relatons: A Wder Perspectve,SEA Policy Brie, No. 37 (November2009).

46 F. Stephen Larrabee, urkey Redscovers the Mddle East, ForeignAairs, Vol. 86, No.4 (July/August

2007), pp. 103-114.

47 Murat Yetkn, Erdoann ABDye ran Uyars, Radikal, 12 January 2010.


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48 Mensur Akgn, Davutolu Ne Yapmaya alyor?, Reerans, 12 July 2010.

49 Mehmet zkan, urkey-Brazl Involvement n Iranan Nuclear Issue: What s the Bg Deal?, StrategicAnalysis, Vol. 35, No.1 (January 2011), p. 26-30

50 Mehmet Al Brand, Erdoan, ran n Neden Bu Kadar Risk Alyor?, Posta, 16 Aprl 2010.

51 As t s hghly lkely that the Iranan nuclear program wll cause a race to acqure nuclear weaponsamong nuental regonal players t wll also have a urther destablzng eect or the area.

52 Mehmet Al Brand, Douda Bayrak gb Dalgalanyor..., Posta, 07 July 2010.

53 Alon Ben Mer, Israel And urkey: What Went Wrong?, at www.turkshweekly.net/columnst/3356/srael-and-turkey-what-went-wrong.html [last vsted 25 March 2011]; Cengz andar, rkyennhesapl Hayr..., Radikal, 11 June 2010.

54 Hugh Pope, urkey-Israel: Erdogan s not the Bogeyman, Haaretz, 18 June 2010.

55 Alon Ben Mer, Israel and urkey: What Went Wrong?.56 Brand, Douda Bayrak gb Dalgalanyor.

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