new york insurance association...2018 election preview presentation outline [3] namic today largest...

NEW YORKINSURANCE ASSOCIATION

Chuck ChamnessPresident & CEO, NAMIC

June 1, 2018

[ 2 ]

▪ NAMIC TODAY

▪ Key Advocacy Issues

▪ 2018 Election Preview

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

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NAMIC TODAY

Largest P/C trade association with 1,400 companies

• Serving 170,000,000+ policyholders

• Employing 200,000

• Large to small and coast to coast

Profile:

• $20 million in revenue

• 35 advocates and policy experts representing members in Washington DC and across US

• Largest Insurance Company Trade Assn PAC in America $1,100,000

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NAMIC MEMBERS IN THE U.S. REPRESENT:

NAMIC TODAY

Of the total property/casualty insurance market

Of the homeowners insurance market

Of the automobile insurance market

Of the business insurance market

40%

54%

43%

35%

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WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES

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PRESIDENT TRUMP: YEAR ONE


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TRUMP YEAR ONE: A TALE OF TWO TRUMPS?


Depending on who you speak to, it has become clear that President Trump’s first year in office is largely being viewed one of two ways…

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TRUMP YEAR ONE: A YEAR OF CHAOS?


Some say the President’s first year has been defined as a year of missteps and chaos:• #Resist #NeverTrump• Russia’s involvement in the election • Collusion with Russia• Firing of former FBI Director James

Comey• Tensions with North Korea• Travel Ban • High staff turnover - Unlikable• War on Media • Protests in Charlottesville• UN / Paris / NATO /NAFTA Controversy• Jerusalem / China – Taiwan• Sh#@holes• Shutdown• Stormy Daniels….and of course

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OR A YEAR OF HISTORIC WINS?


Others would call Trump’s 2017 a historically productive first year for a President:

• Dow 25,000 - record high – up over 40%• Creating $8 T in wealth• Economic growth over 3 percent• Added 1.7 million new jobs • Unemployment rate near record lows - 4.1%• Consistent wage growth month over month• Consumer Confidence at the highest since 2000• Massive regulatory rollback – (2-1),(16-1),(22-1)

• Confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to SCOTUS• Confirmed 12 circuit court judges – setting record for first year

in office• Illegal border crossings way down• Repeal of Obamacare’s Individual Mandate• Signed historic tax reform bill

• Tax cuts mean more money in paychecks.• Companies (AT&T, Comcast, JetBlue, Bank of America,

Nationwide, Apple) credit tax reform with bonuses paid out.

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TRUMP’S INSURANCE INDUSTRY REPORT CARD


What did Trump’s first year in office mean for the insurance industry?

▪ Issued strong clarification of Covered Agreement▪ Further delayed Fiduciary Rule▪ De-designation of insurance SIFIs ▪ Focused the Federal Insurance Office ▪ Elimination of duplicative TRIA data call▪ Treasury report on insurance industry▪ Stated intention to reverse consistent growth in

federal involvement in insurance regulation ▪ Tax Reform a Major Win for P/C Insurers▪ Dodd-Frank Reform

[ 11 ]NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES

HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN?

▪ Last major reform of the tax code was in 1986

▪ Everyone agreed 30-year old tax code needed reform

▪ 35% corporate rate was developed world’s highest statutory rate

▪ Code had become riddled with deductions and credits

▪ Overly complex

▪ Led to anemic economic growth

Why so long?


WHOSE OX IS BEING GORED?


TAXATION OF P/C INSURANCE

▪ In tax reform, there are always winners and losers…just ask p/c industry.

▪ Since 1986 reform, industry average effective rate has been in the low 30s, compared to ~18% for all corporations.

▪ P/C industry had much to gain from corporate tax reform and lower rate.

▪ However, a LOT of potential pitfalls if reform is done wrong.

▪ In short, the tax treatment for insurance needs to be tailored.


TAX REFORM PRIORITIES FOR NAMIC

▪ We supported lower rate and less complexity (no more AMT)

▪ First and foremost, industry needed to avoid a mismatch between regulatory system and tax code

▪ Maintaining Subchapter L was essential▪ Must have conformity with statutory accounting and

maintain the deductibility of loss reserves ▪ Net-Operating Loss Carrybacks and Carryforwards▪ Treatment of muni-bonds (proration) should not be

seen as a piggy bank▪ Treatment of industry should be equitable –

deductibility of advertising expenses▪ Small mutual inflation update▪ This has been a message we have been spreading

since 2014!

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Signed into law Dec. 22, 2017 – A Big Win

▪ Slashes the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%

▪ Clear Victory on NAMIC Tax Reform Priorities

▪ Focused on implementation in 2018

▪ Short-term disruption (DTAs, Corp. AMT credits, etc.) but long-term benefit

TAX REFORM

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TRUMP’S 2018 AGENDA


After accomplishing one of his major legislative goals with tax reform, in the year ahead, President Trump plans to continue pushing an aggressive agenda.

Issues he will look to address in 2018 include:

• Overhauling the country’s immigration policies • Improving and rebuilding aging infrastructure• Reforming the nation’s welfare system• Reducing Regulatory Burdens for Business

The President’s working relationship with a Republican-controlled Congress will be critical to accomplishing these goals.

But if history is any indicator, the President’s days with a GOP-led House and Senate could be numbered…

What’s the Underlying Problem?

KEY POLICY ISSUES


GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS▪ Most recent major event affecting the insurance

industry.▪ Prompted U.S. regulators to look internationally for

“best practices”

▪ Since the crisis, G-20/FSB has been taking a “one-size-fits-all” approach

▪ Inflexible and unwieldy▪ IAIS developing international standards to apply to all

insurers worldwide, including domestic-only companies.

▪ Foreign companies seek level playing field by exporting European model to the U.S.

▪ Solvency II

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REGULATION POST-FINANCIAL CRISIS

▪ Federal Insurance Office▪ Covered Agreement▪ Model Holding Company Act▪ Own Risk and Solvency Assessment

(ORSA)▪ Corporate Governance Annual Disclosure▪ Federal Reserve Oversight of SLHCs

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▪ International activities at the IAIS.

▪ Called for expanded authorities at every opportunity (modernization report).

▪ Released of controversial consumer protection report

▪ Refused to work with NAIC on TRIA data call –insurers now faced with 2 per year.

▪ Auto affordability and availability study attempts to define the undefinable.

▪ Covered Agreement.

AFTER 7 YEARS WITH FIO………

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▪ Since Dodd-Frank created FIO in 2010, questions arose about its proper role.

▪ In 2017, NAMIC, Big I, PIA, NAIC, called for its elimination.

▪ Others see a role for FIO but believe changes are needed.

▪ The question of what value has the FIO added has been an ongoing topic.

▪ Legislation introduced to eliminate or scale-back FIO

THE FUTURE OF FIO

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INT’L LEGISLATION IN 115TH CONGRESS

• Reps. Duffy and Heck also introduced an international bill (H.R. 4537):

- Prohibits federal officials from agreeing to int’l standards that are inconsistent w/ U.S. law

• Sens. Heller and Tester re-introduced their bill (S.1360):

- Increase transparency of int’l negotiations

• Both bills have been passed out of committee


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REVISITING DODD-FRANK

▪ Requires international insurance negotiators to consult with state regulators to build a consensus before taking a position on international insurance capital standards.

▪ Requires the Treasury Secretary to report to Congress on the effects that international insurance proposals would have on U.S markets, efforts to increase transparency at the FSB regarding international insurance proposals, and any positions taken by U.S. negotiators.

May 24, 2018 - President Trump signed into law, S. 2155 - The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protections Act:

▪ First Substantial regulatory relief legislation since Dodd-Frank in 2010.

▪ Initially focused on community banks & credit unions with no insurance related provisions.

▪ NAMIC worked to include provision to address international insurance regulation:

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NEW PARADIGM EMERGING IN REGULATION DEBATE


Rather than federal vs. state regulation dichotomy, new paradigm is emerging

On both FIO reform and int’l legislation, support or opposition is cutting along

domestic vs. internationally-based insurers

DISASTER REFORM

U.S. Disaster Policy Isn’t Working Anymore

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DISASTER REFORM

Disaster spending is on an unsustainable path and current policies are enabling this trend.


The number of federal disaster declarations

has increased drastically in recent

years.

And as a result of an unprecedented hurricane season and ongoing wildfires, 2017 was the costliest year for natural disasters in U.S. history. .

Taxpayers covered $114.5 billion after Hurricane Katrina, and $56 billion after “Superstorm” Sandy.

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DISASTER REFORM


But despite knowing that every $1 invested in mitigation and building resiliency can save between $6 and $8 in the aftermath of a disaster,

The U.S. spends very little money hardening homes and preparing communities for disasters.

Home Destroyed In Fulton, TX as a result of Hurricane Harvey

This has resulted in an endless cycle of destruction, where homes are built back after a disaster to the same dangerous, outdated standards that caused them to be destroyed.

AN ENDLESS CYCLE OF DESTRUCTION


DISASTER REFORM

April: Nationwide Property/Casualty Operations President Mark Berven called for the inclusion of the National Mitigation Investment Strategy in a forthcoming infrastructure bill.

September: NAMIC Board Chairman Steve Linkous told Congress it is more urgent than ever to include the National Mitigation Investment Strategy in a disaster aid package being readied for victims.

June: Held a Thought-Leaders Forum on Capitol Hill that brought togetherstakeholders and policymakers to discuss the importance of a NationalMitigation Investment Strategy

BUILDING A STEADY DRUMBEAT


▪ Fall 2017 - House unveiled & passed the Disaster Recovery Reform Act (DRRA).

▪ January 2018 - FEMA released draft National Mitigation Investment Strategydesigned to harden homes and communities.

▪ February 2018 - Senate passed own disaster aid bill that included one of NAMIC’s critical reforms.

▪ Reform allows for increase in post-disaster federal cost-share to 10% based on:

✓ A state’s enforcement of the latest building codes✓ A state’s adoption of a mitigation plan ✓ A state’s investments in disaster relief, insurance, and emergency

management programs ✓ A state’s funding mitigation projects or giving tax incentives to projects

that reduce risk.

On Feb. 9, President Donald Trump signed into law this powerful incentive for states to build more resiliently –the same policy we have been working to advance since 2011.

DISASTER REFORM

A MAJOR WIN

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DISASTER REFORM – NEXT STEPS

May 23, 2018 - U.S. Department of Treasury hosts discussion about pre-disaster mitigation and community resilience, along with FIO, FEMA, and NOAA.

▪ 25 Financial Sector Stakeholders – including insurance, banking, construction, real estate, & catastrophe modeling sectors – highlighted BuildStrong-backed Disaster Recovery Reform Act, including cost-share reform incentive.

▪ Within cost-share reform incentive, FEMA is required to issue guidance by February 2018 regarding how to weight a state’s investments in mitigation and resilience, which would determine a state’s eligibility to receive additional post-disaster federal cost-share.

▪ NAMIC-led BuildStrong Coalition is crafting specific recommendations on how a state could qualify & pushing FEMA to establish statewide enforceable building codes as a minimum requirement for a state to receive any additional post-disaster funds.

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NFIP REAUTHORIZATION – IT CAN’T WAIT

2018 Hurricane Season Officially Starts today.

Yet, May 27 saw Major Storms Already Taking a Toll:

▪ Ellicott City, Maryland – second historical flood since 2016.

▪ Tropical Depression Alberto – first named storm before season even starts.

Forecasters call for near- or above-normal hurricane season with 10-16 named storms, and 1-4 major hurricanes CAT 3 or higher.

ARE WE READY?

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NFIP REAUTHORIZATION

▪ Multiple short-term reauthorizations since 2017.

▪ Short-term efforts do little to help, and end up hurting WYO

programs.

▪ 67 WYO Companies

▪ 18 WYO companies are members of NAMIC

▪ Little actual progress toward long-term reauthorization and

building out a private flood insurance market.


NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM: Reauthorization & Reform

Even with a badly broken NFIP, Congress is incapable of taking action:

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Difficulty of developing a private flood market in this rate environment


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▪ March 23 – Authorization of NFIP extended to July 31 as part of Omnibus spending bill that funds government through end of fiscal year - Sept. 30.

▪ The bill decoupled NFIP authorization from government funding;

▪ Some think this will force separate Senate action on long-term NFIP reauthorization & reform.

▪ House passed bill [H.R. 2874] included NAMIC-backed reforms:

▪ Gradual escalation to risk-based premium rates for multiple lost properties;

▪ Provisions to increase private involvement in flood insurance market;

▪ Increased mitigation funding.

▪ Disagreements within Senate Banking Committee have prevented movement on Senate NFIP bill.


A SUMMER SHOWDOWN

INSURERS AND DRONES

KEY ADVOCACY ISSUE: INSURANCE & DRONESNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES

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INSURANCE & DRONES

Insurer Use of Drones in Disaster Response:▪ Multiple hurricanes & wildfires put drones to

test.▪ Ability to cover wider areas, faster.▪ Enabled handling of multiple claims.▪ Better data quality.▪ Safer than putting human adjusters in

dangerous situations.▪ Creating new opportunities for non-disaster

use, especially for roof inspections.Insurance Market for Emerging Drone Industry

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INSURANCE & DRONES

FAA Permits Commercial Drone Use:▪ The FAA enacted new rules in August 2016 to enable

certain commercial drone operations.▪ More insurers are using and insuring drones, but serious

questions of regulation and liability remain.▪ The FAA promised more permissive rules in 2017, but

none have yet been issued.▪ Last reauthorization saw approval of post-disaster use of

drones.▪ FAA Reauthorization in 2018 contains no new regs related

to insurance.

AUTOMATED VEHICLES (AVS)

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AUTOMATED VEHICLES


Levels Of Automation

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AUTOMATED VEHICLES

40.70%

15.70%9.20%

34.…

Personal and Commercial Auto

Homeowner/Farm Owner

Workers Comp

All Other Lines

Autonomy in Cars Will Significantly Impact the Auto Line for Insurers

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Existing regulatory model hard to adapt to AVs:

▪ Motor Vehicle Safety Standards may need to be updated or waived.

▪ But existing regulatory dichotomy needs to be preserved:▪ Federal Standards on safety

▪ State Standards on licensing, liability, etc.

▪ Federal legislation seeks to allow for development of AVs by getting waivers from standards, but must be done right.

▪ Any changes to the regulatory framework must include input from insurers.

▪ States: “race to the bottom”

AUTOMATED VEHICLES


Regulating an Emerging Technology

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For the foreseeable future, fully automated vehicles will share the road with less than fully automated vehicles

PREDICTION FOR 2020

10 Million AVs

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NAMIC’s AV Council established guiding policy principles in 2017 as it relates to autonomous vehicle technology:

• Insurers must have access to AV accident and incident information and data

• The Federal government – through NHTSA – should make the determinations for the required safety of AVs

• States and localities should make the determinations of the registration, licensing, and operation of AVs in that state/locality

– States must retain the regulation of AV operator and vehicle insurance.

– States must define and address AV personal liability issues in state/tort law and regulation

AV POLICY GUIDANCE

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AUTOMATED VEHICLES

May 23 - House Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance Holds hearing -- “The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on the Future of Insurance.”

▪ Focused on the development of AVs and the role of insurance.

▪ Witnesses included NAMIC members American Family Insurance & State Farm testified; both participate in NAMIC’s Automated Vehicle Counsel.

▪ Testified that safety and data access are two essential components of ADS technological developments.

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AUTOMATED VEHICLES

Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C., used his time for questioning to highlight NAMIC’s recent whitepaper on AVs.

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NAMIC AV ADVOCACY

NAMIC just published:

“Insurance Can Validate Safety for Automated Driving Systems”

NAMIC’s Tom Karol / [email protected]

AUTOMATED VEHICLES

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HUD DISPARATE IMPACT RULE


• In March 2013, HUD issued a rule that would apply “disparate impact” – statistical disparities for protected classes (race, religion, gender, disability, etc.) to pricing and provision of homeowners insurance.

• This could threaten use of any underwriting factor.

• NAMIC filed a legal challenge seeking the US District Court for the District of Columbia to require HUD to account for the Supreme Court’s key limitation and conditions in the HUD rule.

• This would allow only cases where company actions directly cause discrimination through barriers that are “artificial, arbitrary and unnecessary”.

• We (with a little help from the federal court) are working to encourage HUD, led by Dr. Ben Carson, to change his agency’s approach with respect to disparate impact for insurers.

2018 POLITICAL CLIMATE

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2018 ELECTION OUTLOOK

History Suggests House of Representatives is in Play:▪ Since 1946, President’s party has lost an average of 25

House seats in midterm elections▪ In midterms where President’s party controlled both

houses of Congress, the party lost an average of 32 House and 4.7 Senate seats

▪ If President’s approval rating is down prior to election day, results can be even worse.

▪ If Generic ballot is down, results can be even worse.


2018 ELECTION OUTLOOK: HOUSE

■ Republican held seats (240) ■ Democrat held seats (195)

*Four vacancies in PA-18, OH-12, MI-13 and AZ-08

Historically, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in mid-term elections. And to take back the House in November, Democrats need to flip just 24 seats. (hold 100% + all toss-up + 7 lean)

179

10

3

2

1

2

6

22

26

30

154

Solid Democrat

Likely Democrat

Lean Democrat

Toss-Up

Lean Republican

Likely Republican

Solid Republican

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The Map Favors GOP for 2018 Midterm Election:▪ Slim GOP Majority 51-49▪ 8 Senate Republicans up for re-

election.▪ 26 Senate Democrats up.▪ Ten of those Democratic Senators are

from states that Trump won in 2016:o Five of those states – IN, MO, MT,

ND, & WV – elected Trump by a margin of 19% or more.

2018 ELECTION OUTLOOKThe U.S. Senate


2018 ELECTION OUTLOOK: SENATE

Clinton + 15 or greater Clinton +5 to +14.9 Clinton +4.9 to Trump +4.9 Trump +5 to +14.9 Trump +15 or greater

DEMOCRATS (25)

Feinstein (CA) +16.2Hirono (HI) +32.2Cardin (MD) +25.2Warren (MA) +27.3Gillibrand (NY) +21.3Whitehouse (RI) +15.6Sanders (VT)(I) +28.5Cantwell (WA) +16.2

Murphy (CT) +13.3Carper (DE) +11.5Menendez (NJ) +13.2Heinrich (NM) +8.3

King (ME)(I) D +2.7Klobuchar (MN) D +1.5Smith (MN) D +1.5Kaine (VA) D +4.9Stabenow (MI) R +0.3Nelson (FL) R +1.3Baldwin (WI) R +1Casey (PA) R +1.2

Brown (OH) +8.6 Donnelly (IN) +19.3McCaskill (MO) +19.1Tester (MT) +20.5Heitkamp (ND) +36.3Manchin (WV) +42.2

REPUBLICANS (8)

Heller (NV) +2.4Flake (AZ) +4.1

Cruz (TX) +9.2 Fischer (NE) +226.3Corker (TN) +26.2Hatch (UT) +18.1Wicker (MS) +18.6Hyde-Smith (MS) +18.6Barrasso (WY) +47.6

Democrats needs to pick up just two seats to retake the majority, but are defending 25 seats to the GOP’s 8, including 5 in states Trump won by more than 19 points.



Senate seats in play, by election year

Senate Democrats, Republicans will take turns playing defense in upcoming elections.

26

11

9

21

■ Republican seats ■ Democrat seats

2018 2020

As we have seen over the last year, in an increasingly partisan environment, the Senate’s composition will play a large role in determining whether President Trump can accomplish his legislative goals and buck historical trends.

And on the Democratic side, time will tell if the party seeks to proactively advance an agenda, or will run almost entirely on an anti-Trump platform…

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Most states will hold their primaries in June or August

2018 congressional primary calendar

March1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

May June

August September November

1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

25 26 27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30 31

■ Primary election

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30

1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 6: TXMar 20: ILMay 8: IN, NC, OH, WVMay 15: ID, NE, OR, PAMay 22: AR, GA, KY Jun 5: AL, CA, IA, MS, MT, NJ, NM, SDJun 12: ME, NV, ND, SC, VAJun 26: CO, MD, NY, OK, UTAug 2: TN Aug 7: KS, MI, MO, WAAug 11: HI Aug 14: CT, MN, VT, WIAug 21: AK, WYAug 28: AZ, FLSept 11: DE, NH, RISept 18: MANov 6: LA

2018 POLITICAL CLIMATE

DISCERNING FACTS AND THEIR MEANING• 2017 = Learning Trump & Trumpism• Historic trend of #resist• Political Science? • Presidential Approval • Generic Congressional Ballot• Likability vs Approval• Discrepancy between Approval and

Consumer Confidence• Enthusiasm gap is real – does it cut

both ways?

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FOUNDED BY OUR INDUSTRY… SAVING LIVES TODAY


CHUCK CHAMNESS

[email protected]

Thank you!

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new york insurance association...2018 election preview presentation outline [3] namic today largest...

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