new zealand’s strategic perspective an enigmatic approach to strategy?
TRANSCRIPT
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New Zealand’s Strategic Perspective
An enigmatic approach to strategy?
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An imperial past
• The legacy• Since 1840: 100 years within
imperial umbrella• Upheavals: WWI, WW2• End of British Empire: continuing
collective security arrangements 1945-2007
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Strategy: practice
• Not a vacuum• Practitioners: do strategy, however
imperfectly, in the face of constantly altering conditions…
• Strategy over four decades…• Flexibility, continuity, discontinuity,
seeking advantage.
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The New Zealand Strategic Context• Tension of apparent/actual remoteness.• Extent of NZ’s direct geography.• Thin dimensions of NZ’s trading
interests: thin and long threads, easily broken.
• Alliances (CP, ANZUS, FPDA), direct obligations, indirect obligations.
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Northern & Southern extensions…• Cook Is. & Nuie & Tokelaus• Ocean area larger than F & T.• Sub-antarctic: Ak Is, Campbell• Ross Dependency beyond 60 dg south• Australian Antarctic Territory• More than half Antarctica…• North Pole…
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Improvisation
• Strength, merits & difficulties of No.8 wire.
• Recognition of NZ priorities.• Constantly fitting in… with whom?• Mutual interest, seldom single
interest business.
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Gaining strategic advantage
• Is different for NZ than for larger powers.
• Maximisation of gains and minimisation of losses.
• Taking measures to do this, & letting advantage fall NZ’s way.
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Collaborative, collective
• Underlying approach to use of the armed forces: dictated by necessity;
• NZ does not have the economic, diplomatic, or military strength to easily act alone.
• Both actual (geographical) & conceptual.
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NZ armed forces in transition…• RNZAF, RNZN, NZ Army• 3 professional services: operational
synergy• With other armed forces…• Own patrols…• Interoperability between our own
services & with others is the key.• Strategic intentions signalled partially
by capabilities maintained.• Unspoken assumption: USN, ADF.
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Foreign Policy & operation of the armed services
• Foreign policy is not just trade, although trade is a core strategic requirement.
• The Austronesian (ANZ + Pac Is) neighbourhood;
• The wider realms: distant places, varying roles…
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Promotion of NZ’s interests
• Grappling with different matters in wide variety of places.
• Gaining long-term advantage.• Working to prevent diminution of
those interests.
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Future directions for NZ’s armed forces• Patrol of the bits of the neighbourhood that
belong to NZ + assisting others in distant places…
• From tropics to Antarctic: a necessarily Australasian series of enterprises + other powers (US, France, Britain…)
• Flexibility to be increased.• Frequency of MRCs: less lead time.• Low level/small campaigns/wars; larger ones.• Awareness of the unlikely possibilities as well as
the likely (CTKP).• Breadth & depth argument: future will require
both.
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Where & how
• Bipartisan approaches & differences…• The local, the regional, & further
afield…• Geography is king: physical & human.• Breadth of NZ’s commitments
exemplifies our requirement for engagement: ultimately this comes down to freedom to trade & direct security.
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Shaping the practice of strategy• Political context: within & outside NZ: sets
boundaries.• Absolute requirement to reflect as well as to
practice within the daily pressures.• If the practice of strategy becomes defunct:
risk of becoming an adjunct of others powers’ strategy.
• To a degree NZ is always vulnerable to that consideration.
• NZ response has generally been to take cases on merits: strengths & flaws in this approach.
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Friction, chance…
• Murphy• The irrational• No-one has a monopoly on wisdom• Fast moving pace of events require
thoughtful contemplation of all sorts of circumstances (most of which won’t occur) long before an eventuality arrives.
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Consequences of strategy…
• The foreseen & the unforeseen…• Less directly difficult when
strategy done with partners…• Likely to be more difficult with
unilateral action.
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Dealing with unfavourable circumstances
• An inability to be able to effectively respond, not just NZ but crucially, other usual partners…
• Dec.1941 one manifestation: 5 mths in 1942 an absolute vulnerability.
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The Nuclear future…
• Proliferation.• Terrorism.• Nuclear war.• WMD troubles.• Major regional conflict interventions
involve nuclear armed powers.• Nuclear power.
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Interstate limited war
• One state against a collection• Collection against collection• Flexiblity of coalitions: less trouble
about getting formed & started:• More difficult to end.• Long term commitment…• Discretionary warfare: Middle East• Necessary war: Australia• Other commitments along the
operational spectrum…
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Intrastate trouble
• Greater the trouble, the more intractable the problems are???
• Help under these circumstances.• Management of intractable situations…• Long term commitment.• Discretion: to go in, to leave, to stay out.• Outcomes: serving NZ’s interests + those of
the international community.
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Use of resources in direct assistance• Economic• Diplomatic• Military• Deleterious effects: to effectively
contribute, need to minimise ongoing damage to NZ’s own resources.
• Increase in size, number of platforms, capabilities.
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Next 40 years…
• Position of the United States.
• China/India rivalry.• Reg. nuclear war.• China/Taiwan Korean
Pen.• Fiji.• Pac Is.• Possession of maritime
estates.• Middle East.• Indonesia.
• Demographic alterations.• Economic depression.• Environmental shifts.• Simultaneous conflicts on
different levels of war.• Political change in major
states…
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The bleak future
• The disruptive world.• A disrupted neighbourhood.• Military, political, economic,
demographic, climatic upheavals in series…
• Weak powers even at a distance will be challenged.
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Being prepared
• To avoid being merely reactive.• To minimize impact of situations of
disadvantage to NZ.• Contributions: military, diplomatic,
economic, political, social.• Keeping challenges away: distant
solutions are better for NZ: assisted by physical geography (but in modern warfighting, distance is not an absolute guarantee).
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Into the murk…
• NZ has some discretion thanks to geography & two shields…
• Setting priorities but considering the widest range of possibilities, however unlikely.
• Bedrock geography: NZ is a maritime nation, & needs maritime partners (great & small).
• China, India, US, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, SE Asia, Austronesia.
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Conclusions
• NZ’s strategic perspective is custom-made.
• Promotion of distant peace & security protects NZ’s vital interests abroad (trade) & at home.
• If the sea is a highway, NZ needs to be the secure farm at the end of the road.
• This will only be the case with careful attention to strategy, & continued good fortune.