newbase 621 special 08 june 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 08 June 2015 - Issue No. 621 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: NDC signs contracts for AED2 billion to own 14 new rigs WAM + NewBase The National Drilling Company, NDC, has signed contracts to own 14 new rigs with a total value of about US$543 million (AED2 billion). The contracts were signed by Abdullah Saeed Al-Suwaidi, Chief Executive Officer of the Abu Dhabi National Drilling Company and by the CEOs of the other companies. In a press statement yesterday, Al-Suwaidi said that the contracts fall within the strategic expansion plans being implemented by the company in response to the growing demand from client companies and in order to raise the level of the readiness of the company, enabling it to provide all drilling operations of various kinds efficiently. He pointed out that, as per the signed agreements, offshore and onshore rigs worth AED745 million will be built in the UAE. The Lamprell Company will manufacture an offshore rig and the contract was signed by James Moffat, Lamprell's Chief Executive Officer. An onshore rig will be manufactured by the Oilwell Varco company, and that contract was signed by Majed Hamdan, Vice-President of regional sales. The remaining 12 rigs will be supplied by CBTDC, the China Building Technology Development Centre, and that contract was signed by the company Vice-President

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Page 1: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 08 June 2015 - Issue No. 621 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE: NDC signs contracts for AED2 billion to own 14 new rigs WAM + NewBase

The National Drilling Company, NDC, has signed contracts to own 14 new rigs with a total value of about US$543 million (AED2 billion).

The contracts were signed by Abdullah Saeed Al-Suwaidi, Chief Executive Officer of the Abu Dhabi National Drilling Company and by the CEOs of the other companies.

In a press statement yesterday, Al-Suwaidi said that the contracts fall within the strategic expansion plans being implemented by the company in response to the growing demand from client companies and in order to raise the level of the readiness of the company, enabling it to provide all drilling operations of various kinds efficiently.

He pointed out that, as per the signed agreements, offshore and onshore rigs worth AED745 million will be built in the UAE. The Lamprell Company will manufacture an offshore rig and the contract was signed by James Moffat, Lamprell's Chief Executive Officer. An onshore rig will be manufactured by the Oilwell Varco company, and that contract was signed by Majed Hamdan, Vice-President of regional sales.

The remaining 12 rigs will be supplied by CBTDC, the China Building Technology Development Centre, and that contract was signed by the company Vice-President

Page 2: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Using treated water helps cut water footprint Empower + NewBase

Emirates Central Cooling Systes Corporation (EMPOWER), the world’s largest district cooling services provider, achieved savings of 194 million imperial gallons of fresh water in 2014, enough to fill 354 Olympic swimming pools. The achievement is in line with the directive of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, stipulating that district cooling companies must opt for sea water, grey water or treated sewage effluents (TSE) as opposed to desalinated water, and as part of preserving the water resources in Dubai and synchronizing with the National Strategy for Sustainable Development.

Thus, the company has succeeded in reducing the consumption of fresh water in their production processes and is working toward further reductions, according to Ahmad Bin Shafar, chief executive officer of Empower. The reduced usage of water was the result of using TSE water resources in cooling operations. Moreover, as a proactive step, Empower switched to TSE water in all other older plants as part of the strategic plan of Dubai to save priceless

fresh water. Empower said the achievement demonstrates the sustainability of District Cooling (DC), synchronizing with the large initiatives launched by the Government of Dubai to reduce overall water consumption. The company’s advanced technologies contributed to save its overall consumption of potable water through the use of retreated water. Bin Shafar added this has boosted Empower’s sustainability drive significantly while Dubai is playing a remarkable role in environmental conservation. “Under the directive and vision of the Government of Dubai and the UAE toward sustainable practices, we have been able to achieve global excellence in adopting TSE water for DC services, proving that DC is the ideal solution for meeting the demand for the chilling sector without compromising on saving fresh water,” said Bin Shafar.

Page 3: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Empower first began transition from fresh water to treated water in four plants - in Dubai Healthcare City, Jumeirah Beach Residence, Dubai International Financial Centre and Business Bay - leading to significant water saving. The effort was won the first Innovation Award by International District Energy Association (IDEA), in 2013. Empower also succeeded in implementing a new system to restore the cooling water used in the refinery for reuse. “The key advantage of DC is

that it is environment friendly. The use of treated wastewater enhances the environmental role of this technology, compared to conventional methods,” said Bin Shafar. Empower has recognized the issue of water efficiency and understands that these challenges should be addressed as a top priority among public and private sectors around the world. The company believes that it is everyone’s duty to reduce water consumption with the goal of lowering fresh water consumption in the UAE and Dubai. Empower currently operates more than 1 million RT, providing environmentally responsible district cooling services to large-scale real estate developments such as Jumeirah Group, Business Bay, Jumeirah Beach Residence, Dubai International Financial Centre, Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Lake Towers, Ibn Battuta Mall, Discovery Gardens, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai World trade Centre Residences, Dubai Design District, among others.

Page 4: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Oman’s first sugar refinery to start operation in the first quarter of 2018 Oman times

Oman's first sugar refinery will start operation in the first quarter of 2018, even as the promoters have signed a $300 million engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) agreement with China's Sinolight Corporation on Sunday to build the refinery at the Port of Sohar.

Construction work on the refinery will start in the third quarter of this year, said Ashwin D Rana, chief executive officer of Oman Sugar Refinery Company (OSRC). The new sugar refinery, which will have one million tonnes of refined sugar per annum and is coming up in an 18 hectare plot near Sohar Port, will have state-of-the-art, modern facility and will use the latest production technology to produce the highest quality refined sugar. The contract will be managed on behalf of OSRC by Bosch Projects of South Africa.

Rana said that the capital expenditure of $300 million, which is also the value of EPC contract, will be met by way of both equity and debt. An institutional investor from China will also partly fund the project. According to the plan, the company will import raw sugar, refine it using different processes and the finished white sugar will be packed to sell it as a branded product. OSRC, which is using a proven technology, has several advantages, including a strategic location and port facilities. OSRC earlier signed agreements for natural gas and for the land for building the factory. Rana said the total annual consumption of sugar in the Gulf and larger Mena region is estimated at 14 million tonnes per annum, but the refining capacity is approximately nine million tonnes. Therefore, there is a gap of 5 million tonnes every year, which is met by imports from other countries. "We are looking at selling 35 per cent of the company's production in the domestic market, 40 per cent in GCC and remaining in Iran and Iraq," he noted talking about export strategy. OSRC will create employment opportunities for 500 people once it starts operation and the initial Omanisation level will be 25 per cent, which will eventually be raised to 92 per cent. This will create employment for Omani citizens, diversify the economy of the country, create many downstream opportunities and above all enhance food security in the country. The signing ceremony was attended by China's ambassador to Oman Yu Fulong, chief executive officer of Sohar Freezone Jamal Aziz, several senior officials from OSRC, Sohar port and freezone and Chinese embassy in Muscat.

Page 5: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

Oman’s crude production grows 1.5 per cent in May

Oman's total oil and condensates production grew 1.53 per cent to 30.22 million barrels in May compared to the previous month. The average daily production stood at around 974,990 barrels, according to the monthly report released by the Ministry of Oil and Gas.

The report said that Oman's total crude oil exports in May increased by 3.73 per cent compared to the preceding month and reached 25.41 million, registering a daily growth of 819,587 barrels. Asian markets were the largest importers of Oman Crude.

For the second consecutive month, China's oil imports from the Sultanate reduced and showed a

fall of 4.99 per cent compared to April. Imports of Oman's oil by Thailand and Japan continued to

fall by 0.95% and 0.10% and 0.10 %, respectively, in May.

Oman’s natural gas output grows 5.5 per cent

Oman's natural gas production and imports rose 5.5 per cent to 12,402 million cubic metres (MNCM) for the first four months of this year, from 11,750 MNCM for the same period last year. Of this, while non-associated gas showed a growth of 7.6 per cent to 10,216MNCM, associated gas production declined 3.1 per cent to 2,185MNCM, according to statistics released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). Industrial projects A sizeable portion of the natural gas in Oman is used by various mega industrial projects, which stood at 7,267MNCM for the first four months of 2015, against 6,946MNCM for the same period last year. Natural gas is also used in oilfields either as fuel or for re-injection. For instance, in the first four months, as much as 2,613 MNCM of natural gas was used in oil fields, against 2,406 MNCM units consumed for the same period in 2014. The Sultanate's natural gas production this year is projected at 120 million cubic metres per day, which is 15 million cubic metres higher than that of last year. Oman produced and imported 37,687 million cubic metres of natural gas last year (equivalent to 105 million cubic metres per day).

Oman’s gross domestic product registers 4.6 per cent growth in 2014 The Sultanate's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices increased 4.6 per cent during 2014, as compared to the 2.4 per cent growth registered the previous year. While the nominal GDP emanating from the hydrocarbon sector registered a marginal decline of 2.4 per cent, that from non-hydrocarbon activities witnessed a growth of 10.1 per cent during the year, according to the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) preliminary data on national accounts, received by e-mail. The balance of payments situation remained comfortable with both current account and overall position in surplus. The annual inflation rate measured by the movement in the average CPI for the Sultanate stood at 0.60 per cent from January to March 2015 over the corresponding period in 2014. Total assets of commercial banks rose 9.3 per cent to OMR26.2 billion in March 2015 from OMR24.0 billion a year ago.

Page 6: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Cyprus gas field to produce 8 bcm a year with pipeline to Egypt Source: Reuters

The Aphrodite natural gas field off Cyprus is commercially viable and plans call

for producing 8 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year and construction of a pipeline to Egypt, the partners behind the project said on Sunday. Cyprus, which required an

international bailout in 2013, is hoping for an economic turnaround based partly on offshore reserves.

Texas-based Noble Energy and Israel's Delek Group discovered the deposit, estimated to hold 128 bcm of gas, in Cyprus's offshore Block 12 in 2011. It also

contains 9 million barrels of condensate. Plans call for a floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) to process 8 bcm of gas a year and the construction of

underwater pipelines connecting the well to Cyprus and Egypt, Delek said in a statement.

The planned Egyptian exports were made possible by a cooperation agreement the countries signed in February, Delek said, adding that the partners would submit their

plans to the Cypriot government in the near future.

Noble is the project operator with a 70 percent stake. Delek, through two

subsidiaries, holds the remaining 30 percent, but is in early-stage talks to buy an additional 19.9 percent for about $155 million.

Cyprus is seeking to develop its energy sector to bolster an economy that relies

mostly on tourism, business services and shipping. The island has, for now, shelved plans to create its own liquefied natural gas terminal.

Page 7: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

Tanzania Ups Gas Reserves to 55Tcf

Tanzania's current natural gas reserves have seen a significant increase in the past one year following new offshore discoveries, Reuters news agency reported citing a statement by country’s energy minister.

"As a result of ongoing exploration activity, natural gas resources discovered in the country rose from 46.5 tcf in June 2014 to 55.08 tcf in April 2015, equivalent to an increase of 18 percent," George Simbachawene, Tanzania's energy and minerals minister, said in a presentation to parliament on Saturday.

Tanzania in October raised its estimate of recoverable natural gas resources to up to 53.2 tcf,Reuters added. Simbachawene further stated that a pipeline connecting offshore natural gas fields to Tanzania's commercial capital Dar es Salaam would be commissioned in September, ahead of the energy ministry's previous estimates of November.

"The commercial operational date of gas processing plants and the pipeline has now been set at September 2015," he said.

Page 8: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

China coal imports slump further in May as policies bite Reuters + NewBase

China's coal imports slumped sharply in May as policies aimed at cutting imports of low-quality grades and increasing the use of cleaner energy undermined industry expectations of a pick-up in seasonal demand, data showed on Monday.

Total imports in the first five months of the year reached 83.26 million tonnes, down 38.2 percent compared with the previous year, according to preliminary data from China's General Administration of Customs.

May's imports of 14.25 million tonnes were down 28.6 percent on April, according to the data, while Reuters calculations showed that imports were down 40.6 percent compared to May 2014. Last week, major Chinese coal firms had raised their contract prices for the second time in a month in anticipation of demand rising over the summer season.

But analysts said any upturn in coal purchases would be limited despite relatively low inventory levels at thermal power plants, with hydropower likely to meet a large share of the increase in power demand.

"Imports are constantly decreasing compared to last year due to new policies, and the use of new (renewable) energy," said Zheng Nan, an analyst with China's Shenyin Wanguo Securities. The import data includes lower-grade lignite, a type of coal with lower heating value that is largely supplied by Indonesia.

In previous summers, southern coastal power plants would often turn to foreign markets because of severe transportation bottlenecks, but weaker demand and improved rail capacity means that is unlikely to be a factor this year.

Buyers last year enjoyed a 20 yuan ($3.22) per tonne discount if they bought coal from overseas, but that price gap has now been reversed, said Zheng. "Domestic production is now cheaper than

Page 9: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

imported coal ... Some are transporting coal from Inner Mongolia instead because the cost of land freight is cheap due to the cuts in oil prices," he said.

With domestic coal consumption expected to fall around 5 percent this year as a result of the slowing economy, China has been trying to prop up prices by tackling oversupply. It has urged big domestic producers to cut output and tightened quality inspections at ports with the aim of limiting foreign supplies. Higher tariffs on low-grade imports has also helped stem the tide.

Benchmark 5,500 kcal/kg spot prices at the port of Qinhuangdao SH-QHA-TRMCOAL inched up 5 yuan ($0.80) to 415 yuan ($67.00) per tonne last week, but they remain 20 percent lower than at the start of the year. ($1 = 6.2035 Chinese yuan) .

Indonesia to review coal mining licences in consolidation push

Indonesia will push for consolidation in its mining sector while coal prices are low and may soon revoke more than 4,000 licences that have caused problems, mining and energy minister Sudirman Said said on Monday.

Indonesia ships about $2 billion of coal a month and is the world's top exporter of thermal coal, but it wants to keep more of the fuel to feed ballooning domestic power demand. At the same time, it wants to squeeze more revenue from the sector.

"At the end of the day it's about equilibrium," Said told a coal conference in Bali, noting Indonesia had issued around 10,100 of the newer mining licences known as IUPs. "We enjoyed huge profits that were abnormal. Abnormal money drives abnormal behaviour,"

Said said, referring to the commodity boom.

According to the energy ministry, there were around 960 coal firms at production stage. Around 900 of these are IUP permit holders that contribute about 80 million tonnes, around 20 percent of total output.

Page 10: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

"This month we will decide whether their permits will be revoked," Coal Enterprise Director Adhi Wibowo said, referring to the 40 percent of IUPs with problems such as overlapping permits and unpaid royalties.

The ministry plans to hand over licensing to the investment coordinating board (BKPM) this year, he said. The review will only apply to the IUPs. Larger, older-generation firms with so-called Contracts of Work such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy will be unaffected.

"This is the perfect time to consolidate," Said said, referring to depressed coal prices. "We will create opportunities for players who are serious, who want to invest and who always comply with government rules."

The Asian benchmark Newcastle coal index was at $60.32 a tonne for the week ended June 5, down 10 percent this year and less than half of the post-2008 recession peak of $136.30 in January 2011.

Indonesia will probably exempt low-grade coal from a planned increase in royalties paid by coal miners, Said said. The government plans to build 35 gigawatts of new power stations by the end of the decade and a further 35 gigawatts by 2025, although critics say that target is unlikely to be met.

"Going up to 35 gigawatts is quite daunting," said Roleva Energy coal industry analyst Bart Lucarelli. "What hasn't changed is the unrealistic schedule set by PLN and the energy ministry," he said, referring to state power utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and a previous programme to build 10,000 megawatts of new power plants, which faced long delays or never materialised.

The plans could increase coal consumption from around 90 million tonnes a year at present to 250 million tonnes, Said said, and they may include pushing coal miners to build power stations. "(We) will reach a new balance. The domestic market will be strong while the rest we can play with on the export market, but that won't be the dominant market."

Page 11: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

US: Crude oil adjustment balances independently developed

supply and disposition components Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The crude oil adjustment is perhaps the most frequently misunderstood component of the U.S. crude oil balance published in EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR). This adjustment reflects the combined uncertainty around each of the crude oil data elements that EIA uses to assess the balance between U.S. crude oil supply and its disposition.

Key weekly crude oil quantities are linked through the following balance relationship: Domestic Production + Imports = Refinery Inputs + Exports + Stock Change, with stock change defined as the difference between stock builds and stock draws. Each week, EIA collects survey data for imports, refinery inputs, and stocks. Currently, EIA does not collect weekly production or export data, so estimates are developed based on monthly data and information regarding seasonal and industry trends.

The quality of these estimates can later be assessed by examining their relationship to monthly data once it becomes available. The differences between weekly and monthly values after the latter are obtained are typically quite small compared with the estimated production and export volumes. For example, for the weekly crude oil production estimate, EIA's model is often within 1% of the monthly reported production data for volumes that now regularly exceed 9 million barrels per day.

Despite the generally close correspondence between weekly production and exports estimates and subsequent monthly data, EIA is seeking to further improve weekly data. A recent agreement between EIA and the Department of Homeland Security's Customs and Border Protection will provide EIA analysts with access to raw export data on a weekly basis, potentially enabling even more accurate weekly crude oil export data.

Ideally the sum of the elements of the crude oil balance relationship, which are developed independently, should balance perfectly. In practice, this is rarely the case, because timing differences or other factors that contribute to survey responses may not precisely reflect actual

Page 12: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

crude oil import, storage, and refining activity for the week, or weekly estimates of crude oil exports and production over- or under-estimate the actual values.

For this reason, EIA derives an adjustment equal to the sum of disposition items minus the sum of supply items that may reflect, in part, potential imperfections in respondent reporting. Typically, the adjustment is less than 2% of refinery crude oil inputs. Because this calculation can fluctuate between positive and negative values, a four-week or eight-week average adjustment is often even smaller than 2%.

Compared to the millions of barrels in the overall balance, the adjustment is quite small, and it generally demonstrates a good match between the various components driving crude oil supply and use.

Increases in U.S. crude oil production are predominantly light, sweet

U.S. crude oil production has grown rapidly in recent years, primarily from light, sweet crude (less dense, lower sulfur content) from tight resource formations. Roughly 90% of the nearly 3.0 million barrel per day (b/d) growth in production from 2011 to 2014 consisted of light, sweet grades, meaning they have an API gravity of 40 or above and a sulphur content of 0.3% or less.

EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) projects that U.S. supply of lighter API gravity crude oil from formations in regions such as the Bakken, Permian Basin, and Eagle Ford continues to outpace that of medium and heavier crudes.

Although the rate of growth in light sweet crude slows after 2015 in the Reference case, 56% of EIA's projected production growth between 2014 and 2020 consists of sweet grades with an API gravity of 40 or above. Another 33% of the growth is attributable to an increase in Lower 48 states offshore production, which is categorized as medium sour with an API gravity between 27 and 35.

The pace and duration of projected crude oil production increases are uncertain, and these factors are dependent on crude oil prices and the quality and amount of technically recoverable resources. In the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource and High Oil Price cases, the rate of growth in tight oil production is higher than in the Reference case, as light, sweet crudes make up an even greater portion of domestic crude oil resources.

Page 13: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Oil prices fall as Opec keeps output high

Crude oil prices fell on Monday as China's oil imports dropped sharply and markets were expected to be increasingly oversupplied following Opec's decision to keep its production targets unchanged.

China, the world's biggest net oil importer, bought nearly a quarter less crude in May than it did in the previous month, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs. Its imports of oil products also fell just over six per cent while product exports fell 10 per cent. China's report of a fall in import demand came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) agreed on Friday to stick to its policy of not limiting its output, which currently stands above 30 million barrels per day. Both exacerbate worries about a glut in a market where millions of barrels of crude are stored in tankers without a buyer. "The world's crude demand/supply remains in excess of supplies," said Yasushi Kimura, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) after Opec's decision. "Opec projected a continuation of firm demand in global crude demand and judged there's no need to change current production levels. The decision also may have come about reflecting the view that Opec's lone production cuts would be offset by rising US shale oil production," he added. Front-month Brent futures dropped 56 cents to $62.75 a barrel by 0313 GMT. US crude was at $58.55 per barrel, down 58 cents. Opec ministers said the group may even exceed the 30 million bpd target, especially if there is an increase in production and exports from Libya, Iraq or Iran. "We forecast that Saudi and other low-cost producers will continue to increase output as this is the

Page 14: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14

next logical step to maximizing revenues in the face of shale oil's scalability," Goldman Sachs said, adding that the global oil market would remain oversupplied in 2016 due to increased production from Opec, Iraq and Russia. Adding to the glut, analysts also expect US drilling to start increasing again in the second half of this year following 26 weeks of declines. Drilling fell after crude prices dropped to six-year lows in January, but a modest recovery and reduced operating costs are allowing US drillers to operate at costs that would have been previously unviable.

Opec unlikely to lose ‘oil influence to shale’ AFP + GulfNews + NewBase

Opec’s announcement that it is keeping crude output levels unchanged again, despite a collapse in oil prices, reflects the growing influence of booming US shale but analysts say the group is still the dominant player. The 12-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) switched its production strategy in November in order to push down prices and hurt high-cost US shale producers, who need elevated prices to make their operations profitable. Opec ditched its traditional role of supporting higher prices to boost revenues, and instead left its output ceiling unchanged at 30mn bpd - despite the collapsing oil market and a stubborn global supply glut that is fuelled partly by US shale. The policy was extended last Friday when producers from Africa, Latin America and the Middle East decided to leave the taps open, sparking questions from some quarters about the increasing influence of US shale on the oil market. Opec’s dozen members pump a third of the world’s crude oil. “Opec members continue to play a key role in the current conditions of the oil market,” said senior energy analyst Myrto Sokou at the Sucden brokerage in London. “We cannot necessarily say that Opec is losing its price influence on oil prices to the US shale production. Opec still has very significant influence over the current crude oil prices. “However, the US shale oil production continues to increase strongly during the last few months and it is definitely something we need to keep an eye on in the near term.” The US has significantly ramped up its production of oil extracted from hard-to-reach shale, or sedimentary rock, now producing 5.0mn bpd, making the country far less dependent on imports from the crude-rich Middle East. But Capital Economics commodities analyst Thomas Pugh also downplayed talk that the US shale boom could weaken Opec’s standing. “I don’t think it’s fair to say that Opec is losing influence to the US,” Pugh told AFP. “Production in the two regions is managed very differently. Opec can take strategic decisions to manage output to manipulate prices, whereas US production is controlled by hundreds of small firms who manage production based on market conditions.”

Page 15: NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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He added: “Obviously Opec as a group still controls a much larger share of the market than the US, but if the US could act as one oil producer, in the same way that the Gulf states do, it would make it significantly more powerful.” Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at trading website FOREX.com, conceded that Opec is less powerful than it used to be, due in part to strong oil output in non-Opec member Russia, but it still remained a “dominant force”. “Opec is clearly in defence mode as it tries to maintain market share by pumping more oil than is needed,” Razaqzada told AFP. “It is losing some influence to the US shale oil market and to a lesser degree Russia, but it still remains a dominant force—just not as powerful as before .” Over the past five years, the US has enjoyed a shale oil and gas boom, revolutionising the global energy sector but adding to the global glut that has plagued the market. That boom caught Opec ministers by surprise, Iraq’s Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi admitted in Vienna on Friday. “We were two years late on evaluating shale oil, that’s why it came almost as a shock,” Abdel Mahdi told reporters. “It should not have been a shock given that we knew they were working on (extracting) shale oil. Now this is the reality and we have to take it into consideration.” In recent years, Opec has shrugged off talk that the US shale energy revolution would weaken the influence of the group but ministers changed tack last week, arguing that it was a phenomenon that was to be welcomed as part of the global energy landscape. Plagued by demand worries and oversupply, the oil market collapsed 60% between June 2014 - when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at about $106 per barrel—and late January, when it hit a six-year low of under $45. Prices have since recovered, but only to around $60, but analysts argue shale oil exploration is still profitable at this level. “It has been a remarkable revolution in the US,” said Chevron chief executive John Watson last week. “We are producing close to 5.0mn bpd that no one expected, and shale oil will be a balancing mechanism to some degree over the next few years.”

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

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