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Presidential elections, trade and overvalued stocks – what to look out for in 2020

World markets update

Britain’s brexit election – delivering (un)certainty for markets?

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Newsletter, February 2020

Presidential elections, trade and overvalued stocks – what to look out for in 2020

Trump impeachment

While US politics and the unpredictability that seems as if it will be a lasting legacy of Donald Trump’s time as president have been a cause of market concern at times over the last few years, the US President’s impeachment has so far had little effect on markets, at least not in a negative way.

This is because there is little to no chance of Donald Trump being removed from office. With Republicans in control of the Senate, and senior figures in the President’s Senate hearing openly saying they are co-ordinating with the White House and will not be impartial during the proceedings, barring a truly seismic shock, Donald Trump will remain in office until at least January next year.

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With 2020 underway and stock markets continuing where they left off at the end of 2019 – posting gains – we take a look at the prospects for markets in the next 12 months and some of the major events and issues equity investors might want to keep an eye on.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR IN 2020

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Regardless of what markets may think about Donald Trump’s stance on the US Federal Reserve’s policies, the needs of the economy and how to deal with major trade partners, they will see him remaining in office as at least avoiding the inevitably monumental upheaval his removal from office would bring.

While investors will no doubt be keeping an eye on the impeachment proceedings

– which could be wrapped up as soon as February – they are likely to have very little impact on global markets.

US Presidential elections

Unlike with the impeachment hearing, the US Presidential elections are something investors and businesses will be taking very seriously. At the time of writing, it is unclear who the Democrat challenger to Trump will be. However, while former vice-president Joe Biden is a favourite, Elizabeth Warren, seen by some as anti-business over her stance on healthcare, tech and energy issues, is one of the front runners, while Bernie Sanders, another viewed as being well on the left, also has support. Either of the last two would probably be seen unfavourably by markets.

How well any of the potential Democrat candidates will fare against Trump is difficult to know at this stage, although polls so far suggest Biden might beat the incumbent President. But once a candidate is chosen, markets will be closely watching both his, or her, policy pledges, and polls, very closely.

Were Trump to lose the election, it would remove the unpredictability that has been such a mark of his term in

office, and it could mark a change in US foreign policy and approach to key global issues such as climate change. It is unlikely, however, to have a dramatic effect on perhaps the biggest economic issue of Trump’s presidency, trade, as there is strong support among many US politicians for a tough approach to dealing with trading partners. Having said that, the current President’s aggressive, brash negotiating style is unlikely to be missed.

The US and China

The US-China trade dispute was the big mover of global markets in 2019. The latest developments and news from officials in Washington, Beijing and US President Donald Trump’s twitter account, more than once sent stocks across the world sharply up or down and the conflict seemed to weigh permanently on equities in markets in all regions because of the interconnectedness of global trade.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already estimated that the uncertainty connected to the dispute between Beijing and Washington has hurt the global economy with global manufacturing confidence having plummeted since it began in 2017. At the same time, it has held back GDP growth in the world’s two largest economies, according to the group.

However, going into 2020, there are some signs of hope. The US and China have now signed a ‘phase one’ preliminary trade deal – an achievement that for large parts of last year looked improbable, if not impossible. Rhetoric on both sides, notably from the US President himself, has been much more friendly, with Trump describing US-


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China relations in January as being as good as they have ever been.

At the same time, 2019, despite the trade conflict descending into bitter invective and seemingly entrenched stalemate at times, was a stellar year for global stocks and US and Chinese markets in particular.

As the European private banking group Quintet Private Bank noted in its outlook for 2020, it is “important to note that, despite all the noise and the tweets, equity markets reached record highs during the course of 2019, and Chinese equities have never been as popular with foreign investors.”

The trade dispute between the US and China is far from over and it would be naïve to believe that there is no chance talks could break down suddenly or that Washington, in particular, is going to step back from trying to drive a very hard bargain to get what it wants (as can already be seen in President Trump’s belligerent threats to slap tariffs on EU goods, particularly automobiles) and so we believe that 2020 is likely to see the conflict continue to make big market headlines.

The deal “will provide a little bit of a floor that will probably help us see some bounce back of private investment in China,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington. He added, though: “We should not expect that this phase one deal will fundamentally calm things down.”

However, markets will have noted that significant progress has been made and that the phase one deal has put both sides on a less torrid path going forward.

Brexit

With the UK now having finally officially left the EU, some people may be forgiven for thinking that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has delivered on his election pledge to “Get Brexit Done” and that the uncertainty businesses have complained about over the last almost four years has disappeared.

While the first of those points is debatable, the weeks since the Conservative victory in UK elections have shown that the second is incorrect.

Although the UK has now left the EU under the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Johnson and Brussels, the only certainty businesses have is that under arrangements for a transition period as part of the agreement, nothing will change until the end of this year.

However, what happens then is, at the moment, almost anyone’s guess.

The future trading arrangements between Britain and the world’s largest trading bloc, are no clearer. Negotiations between the two sides on this have yet to even start and statements from senior figures in the UK government and in Brussels so far suggest there is a very large mismatch between what the UK wants and what the EU is prepared to give, and vice-versa.


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And even if the gap was much smaller, trade experts, and officials in Brussels, have said it will be almost impossible to get a comprehensive trade deal completed by the end of the year when the transition period ends.

With Johnson and other senior Conservatives having ruled out asking for a further extension to the transition period (a provision granted by Brussels but which they say the UK would have to ask for by the end of June), the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – and the potential consequences for businesses and the UK economy – remains.

The prospect of a no-deal Brexit has weighed on UK, European and some other markets for some time, most acutely last year when the UK had to ask for a delay to its departure from the EU three times as it looked to be approaching the cliff-edge of a no-deal exit from the bloc.

In the coming year, these fears, depending on how the UK’s negotiating stance develops in the coming months, are likely to wax and wane. And there remains the possibility that it could all end badly and that at the end of 2020, Britain could crash out of the EU and be forced to trade with its largest trading partner under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

As Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told UK media while at the Davos Economic Forum in January, the chances of a deal on Britain’s future relationship with the EU being done by the end of the year are

“50-50” because a year is not very long.

“And if the UK is really not willing to ask for an extension then we run the risk that we might get a cliff edge again,” he said.

The Brexit saga is unlikely to end anytime soon, and it would be of little surprise were markets to see further Brexit-related volatility in 2020.

Other geopolitical risks

Last year saw markets largely brush off a number of potentially serious geo-political developments, including terrorist attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran shooting down a US drone, attacks on Saudi oil refineries and massive anti-government protests in Hong Kong.

Investors could be making a mistake though, if they think markets have become immune to geo-political risks and that there is little to worry about in 2020.

The situation in Hong Kong, where violent protests have been ongoing for more than six months and have plunged the territory into recession, as well as claiming dozens of lives, remains very serious.

Relations between the US and North Korea, despite limited progress in recent years, could easily break down again, especially if Pyongyang follows through with recent hints that it is planning to return to nuclear testing.

And tensions between Iran and the US, which appear to have partially eased in recent weeks following the US drone assassination of top Iranian military leader Qassem Sulemeini and Iran’s, albeit unintentional, downing of a civilian jet and the deaths of 176 people in retaliation, could flare up again at any time, raising the threat of chaos in the Middle East alongside higher oil prices.


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“One of the things that can derail a bull market is a spike in oil prices that can cause a recession,” Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, told CNBC. “When you have higher oil prices, that’s going to impact a key cost for a lot of different businesses.”

Any of the above could put a check, or worse, on the upward progress of global stocks.

Where do rates go now?

Since the financial crisis, and latterly as global growth has struggled to get much above first gear, monetary policy has been a vital tool in trying to stimulate sluggish economies around the world. To what extent this has been successful is debatable, but with interest rates in most developed markets at historic lows, in some cases even in negative territory, major central banks may be literally running out of room to loosen policy any further.

Inflation in many major economies poses little problem, but there is a limit to how far central banks can push rates before people begin questioning whether their savings are being essentially stolen from them. At the same time, in places like Europe, there would be little firepower left were there a need to kickstart the Eurozone, or UK, economies.

Conversely, there appears to be little sign that major central banks are going to hike rates anytime soon, perhaps not at all in 2020. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have suggested they plan to keep rates low for the foreseeable future, Japan’s

central bank is equally unlikely to come out of its low rate phase this year, and until there is more clarity on Brexit and the state of the UK economy, the Bank of England will likely be reluctant to do anything dramatic with rates.

Low rates and cheap money have been an undeniable help to equity market investors in recent years as lower rates make stocks more valuable as investors turn away from saving money in banks or bonds and instead invest in stocks in search of higher returns.

And many expect continuing low rates in 2020 will keep markets moving upwards.

Is the US bull run going to end in a crash? 2019 was an excellent year for global equities with many major markets posting double digit gains and hitting record highs.

The FTSE100 delivered its best returns for three years, rising 12%, Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC were both up 25% and the main Japanese benchmark, the Nikkei 225, climbed 18%. China’s CSI 300 gauge posted a 36% gain.

The world’s most important stock market, the US, did equally well. The S&P500 index, for instance, registered its best annual performance since 2013, finishing up 28.9 per cent, while the Nasdaq did even better, climbing 35%.

The very early part of 2020 has continued this with more record highs being set on US markets in the first month of the year.


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While this has been a good period for equity investors, the run-away gains, especially as US stocks enter the 11th year of a bull run, have raised questions about whether stocks are dangerously overvalued and whether or not a crash is not too far off.

The US market – which is key to global equity markets as a crash on Wall Street would drag other markets down with it

– is, relative to the size of the country’s economy at its highest level ever.

Top investors, including Warren Buffett, have in the past used this as a gauge to determine whether stocks are over or undervalued. Meanwhile, the equity market cap-to-gross national product measure indicates the same, while the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio CAPE which measures the ratio of the stock market to historical earnings, is close to levels not seen since the height of the dot-com bubble.

Writing in Forbes in January, investment expert Simon Moore, said: “Valuation suggests that the US market is expensive today. This is true across a host of metrics, suggesting the US market is anywhere between somewhat expensive to the most expensive it’s ever been.”

However, others are reluctant to predict a stock market crash in the coming year, believing that stocks will continue to rise in 2020, albeit much less than last year.

In a CNBC survey at the start of the year, market strategists forecast a 2.4% rise for the S&P. A poll by the bank of America in December found fund managers estimating a 4% gain for the same index this year.

Speaking in US media in early January, business journalist and editor in chief of Investopedia, Caleb Silver, said: “US equity markets will grow, but nothing like the 25-30% we have enjoyed in 2019. We’ve had the wind at our backs with three interest rate cuts, the waning of the 2017 corporate tax cuts and a wave of corporate stock buybacks, the likes of which we have never seen before. Buybacks are slowing as is corporate profit growth.

“The gap between corporate earnings and stock prices has grown a little too wide for many investors, so we need to curb our expectations for returns.”

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CORONAVIRUS SET TO DEAL ANOTHER BLOW TO A GLOBAL ECONOMY ALREADY AILING FROM THE TRADE WAR

Health authorities across the globe are battling to contain the spread of the virus and treat the infected.

In China, tens of millions of people have been quarantined in cities and the Lunar New Year holidays have been essentially extended with thousands of factories

closed, people being told they should not return to work and all non-essential businesses forced to shut in eight regions across the country.

Meanwhile, other countries have effectively closed themselves off to China.

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Just as global markets breathed a sigh of relief that tensions were easing in the debilitating US-China trade conflict which has stunted global growth, the emergence of a lethal virus in China is threatening to deal the world economy another serious blow.

The coronavirus, which was first identified in China in December, has, at the time of writing, killed more than 360 people, infecting more than 17,000 in 25 countries around the world.

CORONAVIRUS SET TO DEAL ANOTHER BLOW

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Some neighbouring states have shut their borders with it while others as far away as New Zealand and Australia have begun refusing to accept people from China into their territories.

And major world airlines, including the likes of Virgin Atlantic, British Airways, Delta and Lufthansa, have stopped services to and from China, some until April.

The effects of these measures on the Chinese economy alone are expected to be significant.

With cities on lockdown, millions stuck at home and travel severely restricted, retail spending in China is

expected to fall steeply in the coming months (although there has been some anecdotal evidence of increased online shopping by Chinese stuck in their homes). Travel companies and the tourist industry as a whole are also expected to suffer with firms unable to do any real business.

Meanwhile, the country’s overall production will be hit as factories remain shut.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has predicted China’s annual growth rate could come in at below 5% for the first quarter of this year, well down on the 6% growth experienced in the previous quarter.

CORONAVIRUS – QUICK FACTSWHAT IS IT?The new virus, identified as 2019-nCoV by scientists, is a coronavirus. Coro-naviruses are a set of viruses ranging from the common cold right up to serious diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).Symptoms include coughing, breathing difficulties, shortness of breath and fever.

HOW DID IT START?Studies have suggested that it may have originated in bats before passing to humans via another intermediary species. Many of the initial cases were found to have worked at or visited the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, central China, which also sold wild animals. However, Chinese doctors studying the first cases have now said that the disease may have had multiple sources.

HOW SERIOUS IS THE CURRENT DISEASE?Data suggests that the mortality rate for 2019-nCoV is around 2%, making it slightly more lethal than seasonal flu, but far less than that of SARS, which had a 10% mortality rate in its 2002-2003 outbreak. For reference, both pale in comparison to the 35% mortality rate experienced during the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2012.

HOW IS IT TRANSMITTED?Via exposure to an infected person. The virus can be transmitted via water droplets when the infected person sneezes, coughs or breathes out. It is thought the disease has an incubation period of up to 14 days and people can be infectious before symptoms appear.

HOW FAR HAS IT SPREAD?It has so far been reported in 25 countries around the world, with 99% of the more than 20,000 reported cases being in China. More than 400 people have died, but only two of these fatalities have been outside China - one person has died in Hong Kong and one person has died in the Philippines.


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According to a forecast by the consultancy group Oxford Economics, it could be as much as 2% lower than previously forecast. “Considering the affected areas account for just over 50% of total Chinese output, we think this could lead China’s annual GDP growth to slow to just 4% in the first quarter from our previous forecast of 6%,” it said.

But it is not just China that will suffer.

Many South-east Asian states rely on China not just as a primary trade partner but as a key source of tourism revenue. In Thailand, for example, tourism accounts for 20% of the Thai economy, and Chinese visitors account for a quarter of all tourism revenue.

Economists at global finance house ING have warned the sharp drop in Chinese tourists to Thailand in the wake of the outbreak and travel bans could have a major negative impact on the country’s current account surplus. The local currency fell 3.7% in value against the US Dollar in January, having appreciated 8.6% in 2019. Thailand’s current account surplus has been the driving force behind the currency’s recent strength.

Some international travel companies have already felt the effects. US cruise operator Royal Caribbean Cruises has warned about its earnings after having to cancel three cruises scheduled in February, while, after a cruise liner owned by the Carnival Corporation, was put in quarantine in an Italian port

– albeit briefly – last month, shares inNorwegian Cruise Line Holding, RoyalCaribbean and Carnival all dipped atleast 5%.

The full economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak – or that of any other major disease outbreak – are impossible to predict accurately. But many of the current forecasts are being made with data from the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak in mind.

Like the Coronavirus, SARS originated in China, but eventually spread to 37 countries, killing 750 people and infecting more than 8,000.

SARS is thought to have originated in bats before jumping species to humans. Chinese authorities have claimed the source of the coronavirus was a seafood market in the central city of Wuhan where live animals were sold. Recent research has cast some doubt on this claim, however. Please see Quick facts on page 2 for more information.

According to some estimates, the SARS outbreak cut Chinese GDP growth by a whole percent in the second quarter of 2003.

Meanwhile, the UK economics consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), says that the SARS crisis knocked anywhere between 30 billion US Dollars to 100 billion US Dollars off global GDP in 2003 – from 0.1% to 0.25%.

CEBR is predicting the impact of the coronavirus to be much worse.

“The economic impact of the coronavirus is bound to be much bigger than that of SARS…. In 2020 China accounts for 16.9% of the world economy compared with 4.3% in 2003 so its economic footprint is nearly four times larger. Second, the disease is spreading


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much faster. Third, although current indicators suggest that the disease is less virulent than SARS, from the point of view of economic damage this is offset by the need to quarantine much larger groups than just those whom we know are currently infected.

“Our worst-case calculation assumes that the coronavirus has six times the speed of spread of SARS and therefore has a six times multiple effect on the Chinese economy. As the Chinese economy is nearly four times larger relative to the world economy, scaling up for this as well would create a world GDP negative impact of 1.8% to 6% based on the retrospective estimates of the impact of SARS,” the group’s Deputy Chairman, Douglas McWilliams, said in a note published on January 31.

The outbreak has affected stock markets. Having had a stellar year in 2019 and a good start to 2020, major markets began tracking downwards at the end of January, posting losses after weeks of solid gains.

Meanwhile, markets in China plummeted at the start of February as traders saw 393 billion US Dollars wiped off the value of the Shanghai Composite Index on the first day of trading following the Lunar New Year holiday.

Markets in other Asian countries – many of which count China as their biggest trading partner – have also slipped in recent weeks.

It is unclear whether this is simply an initial, sharp reaction to the growing crisis or whether equity markets are likely to struggle for the next few months as the outbreak unfolds.

Indeed, some market observers have pointed to what happened after the SARS outbreak. There was also a slump in global stock markets at the start of 2003, but, once the spread of the virus had been contained, they recovered. The S&P 500 lost 10% in the first two and a half months of that year, but closed 2003 with an overall gain of 26%.

Writing on cnn.com at the end of January, financial journalist Laura Hoy said: “If the coronavirus impacts markets in the same way that SARS did, we can expect the S&P 500 and the Dow to make their way back to the sky-high levels we saw at the beginning of the year in July at the earliest… If the outbreak worsens, investors can expect six months of volatility at a minimum.”

The current crisis comes at a time when the global economy has already been left weakened by the US-China trade conflict.

As Beijing and Washington slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of US Dollars-worth of each other’s goods last year, China’s GDP growth dropped to 6% in 2019 and global growth dipped to 3% from 3.6% in 2018.

Experts say the coronavirus outbreak is now putting a global economic recovery in jeopardy.

“With world GDP set to grow by 2.9% this year before the coronavirus impact became apparent, it is clear that unless a cure and a vaccination are found rapidly, the fragile recovery that we predict is at risk,” CEBR’s McWilliams said.

The hopes are that the disease’s spread


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can be contained and that infections peak in the near future.

The coronavirus has a much lower mortality rate than SARS (roughly 2% compared to 10%) but it is spreading more quickly. However, Chinese authorities appear to have moved more swiftly to deal with it than they did with SARS.

Modelling by researchers at the University of Hong Kong has suggested that infections in major mainland Chinese cities could peak as soon as late April.

However, even if that is the case, the economic effects of the disease, especially in China, are likely to be felt well beyond that.

“The economic fallout from the

Wuhan coronavirus, which is more contagious than SARS, is set to be severe. Importantly, investors hoping for a decisive growth rebound once the outbreak is contained are likely to be disappointed,” Diana Choyleva, an expert at consultancy group Enodo Economics, was quoted in The Guardian newspaper.

She added: “Beijing will have no choice but to throw money at investment. Even so, the authorities are unlikely to be able to re-energise the economy as they did post-SARS in 2003.

“China’s structural growth rate has slowed significantly since then, so the short-term hit could well translate into a technical recession.”


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WORLD MARKETS UPDATE

General

Having made a good start to the New Year with more records set, global equities tracked lower towards the end of January as the emergence of a new lethal virus in China spread volatility through markets.

By the end of the month, the Coronavirus had spread to two dozen other countries, infected more than 10,000 people and killed hundreds. It had also caused Chinese authorities to lock down major cities and close factories and businesses. Major global airlines have stopped flights to and from China and other travel operators, such as cruise liner companies, saw their share values drop.

The economic effects of the outbreak are hard to quantify at this stage, but some economists are suggesting that it could knock as much as 2% off China’s GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, as well as affecting economies in the rest of Asia, which are closely linked to China’s, and the global economy. The crisis is being compared to the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003, which also originated in China, and affected the Chinese economy and global stock markets.

Concerns over the virus and the effects of its spread weighed on markets as January went on, offsetting what had been good performance in the early part of the month driven by rising trade optimism as the US and China signed a phase one trade deal. Even rising


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tensions in the Middle East after the US drone assassination of a top Iranian military official only affected markets briefly.

US stocks, as proxied by the S&P 500, managed to finish the month flat, but stocks in Europe were lower, major Asian markets were down and emerging markets lost more than 4%. The MSCI World Index was marginally lower.

USS&P 500 0.0% Dow Jones -0.9%

MSCI USA 0.2% NASDAQ 2.0%

The major US benchmarks closed the month in negative territory, with the exception of the tech-heavy Nasdaq as technology stocks fared better than counterparts in other sectors.

Despite some early jitters following the US drone assassination of top Iranian military official, Major General Qasem Soleimani, the first few weeks of the year saw new records set on most of the major local indices. This came mainly on the back of trade optimism as the US and China signed a phase one trade deal. However, some commentators have been keen to point out that the deal is only a first step and that many tariffs remain in place. They have also cast doubt on China’s ability to honour pledges to buy a further USD 200 billion of US goods before the end of next year.

The buoyant mood on markets gave way to growing concerns over the coronavirus outbreak in China and its subsequent spread and effect on the global economy. China has put cities on lockdown, and closed factories and businesses, and international airlines have stopped flying in and out of the

country. Energy shares were among those hurt by the expected economic fallout from the outbreak as oil prices weakened. Meanwhile, investors had to contend with new trade threats from President Donald Trump who is now threatening slapping tariffs on European auto imports.

The US earnings season for 4Q2019 got underway with generally better than expected reports, including strong results from major companies such as Apple and Microsoft.

Turning to economic data, economic growth of 2.1% in the final quarter of 2019 has been seen as broadly encouraging, but manufacturing remains weak. The services sector is proving resilient, however, while consumer confidence was up in January.

EuropeMSCI EMU -1.7% DAX -2.0%

FTSE 100 -3.4% CAC 40 -2.7%

European stocks eventually finished lower for the month as positive performance on the back of growing trade optimism in the first half of January was eroded by growing concerns over the effects of the Coronavirus on global trade.

Investors were also keeping a close eye on the Eurozone’s sluggish economy as data proved to be mixed. Surveys showed improving business activity in December, as gains in the service sector partially offset another decline in manufacturing, while strong consumer spending ahead of Christmas helped the consumer price index to a 1.3% y-o-y rise in December, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates.


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There was a bigger than expected fall in German exports in November, but industrial production rebounded in the same month after two previous monthly falls. Meanwhile, a preliminary estimate from the Federal Statistics Office suggested German GDP growth was just 0.6% in 2019, down on 1.5% in 2018 and the slowest growth rate since 2013. At the end of the month, however, data showed the French and German economies registering combined output growth at a five-month high in January. In Germany, new orders rose for the first time since June last year while in France, both output and new orders rose for the 10th month in a row.

Stocks in the UK, as proxied by the FTSE-100 index, fell in January as the coronavirus outbreak weighed on sentiment. The Bank of England’s decision at the end of the month to leave rates on hold also boosted Sterling, which weighed on the index’s performance.

Despite officially leaving the EU at the end of the month, January gave a clear indication to investors that the Brexit saga is far from over and that negotiations between Brussels and London over a future trade agreement will continue to make headlines for the rest of the year. Businesses continue to call for greater clarity on the UK government’s Brexit plans and comments from Conservative party officials suggest that the possibility of a cliff-edge, no-deal exit from the EU at the end of the year is still very much on the cards.

Meanwhile, UK government figures have made much of the Conservative party’s ambition to secure a quick agreement with the US on a free trade deal. However, this appears to have been made more

difficult after its decision to go against Washington and allow Chinese telecom giant Huawei to participate in building its new 5G wireless network.

January did see some improved economic data out of the UK, however, with rising employment and flash Purchasing Managers’ Index readings for January suggesting a sharp jump for both manufacturing and services and the composite reading moving up from 49.3 in December to 52.4.

AsiaMSCI Asia ex-Japan -4.4% Shanghai Composite -2.4%

MSCI ASEAN -5.1% Nikkei 225 -1.9%

SENSEX -1.3%

Mainland Chinese stocks were down for the month, struggling as the country was gripped by the coronavirus outbreak. By the end of the month, the virus had spread to two dozen other countries, infected more than 10,000 people and killed hundreds. It had also caused Chinese authorities to lock down major cities and close factories and businesses. Major global airlines have stopped flights to and from China. The economic effects of the outbreak are hard to quantify at this stage, but some economists are suggesting that it could knock as much as 2% off China’s GDP growth in the first quarter of this year.

Concerns over the virus and the effects of its spread weighed on Chinese markets as the month wore on, offsetting earlier gains fuelled by growing trade expectations as the US and China signed a phase one trade deal. Performance may have been worse had markets not been closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, which was extended as the disease spread.


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Among key data readings, consumer price inflation (CPI) in December stood at 4.5% y-o-y, which was below forecasts, while fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 6.0% y-o-y and 1.5% q-o-q. Industrial production beat expectations in December, while exports were up 7.6% y-o-y in the same month.

Equities in Hong Kong and Taiwan followed their mainland counterparts lower over the month.

Like most other markets, January proved to be a tale of two halves for Japanese equities. Initial progress on local markets in the new year had been upwards as shares began where they had left off in 2019, benefitting from a wider global picture of eased trading tensions between China and the US. But fears over the effects of the coronavirus on the global and Japanese economies dragged equities lower towards the end of the month.

However, the month ended on a positive note with some late gains for shares as investors took heart from corporate earnings and economic data as the latest readings for industrial production and retail sales proved to be better than expected. Other data released earlier in the month was not so encouraging, though, with household confidence in the economy at its lowest level for five years, real wages falling, exports down for a 13th consecutive month and manufacturing sentiment poor.

South Korean equities proved to be no more immune to the effects of the coronavirus’s emergence than anywhere else, losing close to 4% in January.

In other news, the central bank kept rates on hold during the month, citing signs of economic recovery and an easing in the “sluggishness” that had been seen previously. Government data showed a 3.5% m-o-m and 4.2% y-o-y rise in factory output in December – well ahead of forecasts – on the back of rising chip production. However, for 2019, industrial output was down 0.7%, the worst reading since 1998.

The main Indian benchmarks registered losses over the first month of the year with both the Sensex and Nifty losing just over 2%. While the coronavirus troubled investors, poor earnings results from a number of local heavyweight firms also weighed on sentiment, as did the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its growth forecast for the country’s economy. The group cut projections for India’s 2020/21 GDP growth to 5.8% and its estimate for the current fiscal year ending in March to 4.8%. This comes amid problems in the country’s shadow banking sector which has affected demand and economic growth.

ASEAN markets also posted losses with the MSCI ASEAN index closing the month more than 5% down. South-East Asian countries are among those with the closest trade links with China and many rely on Chinese visitors to help boost vital tourism revenues. With the coronavirus affecting both Chinese production, business and travel to and from China, there are concerns that some regional economies could be markedly affected by the crisis. Officials in Thailand, where the market fell for a seventh straight month, have already said that the economy will grow less than previously forecast this year due to the virus’s impact on tourism. In


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economic news, Malaysia’s industrial production was up in November, but production of one of its key products

– palm oil – was down 13% m-o-m inDecember. The country’s trade deficitgrew to USD 3.3 billion in November.In Singapore, exports surprisingly rosein December. This comes after nineconsecutive months of decline.

Latin AmericaMSCI Latin America -5.6% MSCI Chile -7.6%

MSCI Brazil 25-50 -7.1% MSCI Mexico 1.4%

MSCI Argentina -2.6%

Most Latin American markets tumbled in a month which proved challenging, to say the least, for emerging market equities as the coronavirus outbreak and its potential effect on the Chinese and global economies fuelled risk-off sentiment towards the end of the month.

The Brazilian market made a bright start to January, climbing on the back of news of stimulus in China and growing trade optimism. A higher consumer inflation reading, which suggested the central bank is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon, put a brief dent in performance, although shares generally continued to track Wall Street higher until worries over the coronavirus took hold of sentiment. Local stocks eventually finished in negative territory. In other news, it was reported that officials from the country are expected to meet Saudi Arabian representatives later this year over possible membership of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This comes as Brazil has ramped up its energy production since President Jair Bolsonaro took office last year, including posting a new annual record for oil production in 2019.

In Mexico, the market followed a largely similar pattern, rising in the first half of the month before falling away later. Data released during the month showed the economy contracted 0.1% last year. The government is currently sticking by its forecast of 2% economic growth this year. However, there was a boost in the month as the US signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It still needs to be given the green light by Canada, though.

Elsewhere, Argentina continues to face severe economic challenges. Data released in the month showed consumer prices rose 54% last year – the largest increase for almost three decades. Prices were up 3.7% in December. Economists are predicting inflation will come in at around 42% for the coming year. Meanwhile, at the end of the month Buenos Aires province again put back a deadline for bondholders to accept its proposal to hold off on a USD 250 million repayment. The negotiation is being seen as a test for the country as a whole as it looks to restructure sovereign debts, hopefully by the end of this quarter.

AfricaMSCI FM Africa 1.5% FTSE/JSE -9.4%

MSCI South Africa -8.8% MSCI Egypt 3.2%

MSCI Kenya -1.7% MSCI Nigeria 4.4%

Major markets in Africa saw mixed performance in the month, with some managing to buck the general global downward trend.

In South Africa there were heavy losses for local equities which suffered from the general weakness in emerging market shares due to fears over the


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2 / 2020

effect the spread of the coronavirus could have on the global economy. Domestic economic concerns were also in focus as the country struggles with sluggish growth – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently reduced its growth projections for the country – and continuing problems with the debt-ridden state-owned utility Eskom which is reliant on substantial financial help from the state to continue functioning. There have been repeated power outages in recent months as Eskom’s poorly maintained equipment forces it into so-called “load-shedding” to various parts of the country. The company has warned South Africans to expect more frequent outages in the future as it tries to make repairs to its facilities.

Meanwhile, there was more disappointing economic data – vehicle sales in January fell 8.1% y-o-y after a 4.2% rise in the previous month, the ABSA/BER purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading showed a surprise fall, dropping to 45.2 from 47.1 in December

– well below the 50 mark separatingexpansion and contraction – andreadings for corporate credit demandwere poor.

In Kenya, the main indices all dropped, pulled down by significant falls for some local large-caps, including the likes of Co-operative Bank, Equity Group and Safaricom. However, officials at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) say they are expecting the recent removal of a cap on commercial lending rates to provide a lift to trading. The move by the government last November helped drive a rally in banking stocks towards the end of the year and NSE chiefs believe that investors are now more likely to consider shifting from fixed income into shares.

In Nigeria, equities gained for the month. This came as President Muhammadu Buhari signed into law a VAT hike from 5% to 7.5% in a bid to help boost government revenue.

Meanwhile, at the end of the month Saudi Telecom Co (STC) and Vodafone Group struck a deal for STC to buy the latter’s 55% stake in Vodafone Egypt for USD 2.4 billion. The deal sees STC put the total value of Vodafone Egypt, the country’s biggest mobile operator, at USD 4.4 billion. Shares in majority state-owned Telecom Egypt, which owns the other 45% of Vodafone Egypt, soared after the deal was announced.

To find out more please speak to your Regional Sales Manager or get in touch with us at [email protected]


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2 / 2020

Cornhill Sales Diary

Welcome to the Cornhill Sales Diary… here we outline the upcoming movements of our Sales team. If you would like to meet with any of them while they are in your region, please drop them a line.


www.1cornhill.com

2 / 2020

IN ASIA this month…

Richard JamesRegional Manager AsiaCovering Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China

[email protected]

© Calendar-12.com

SeptemberSu Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa

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2020 Calendar

Japan

Vietnam

Jakarta

Philippines

© Calendar-12.com


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2020 Calendar

Karl FloodRegional Manager AsiaCovering Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Laos, Myanmar

[email protected]© Calendar-12.com


30 31 1 2 3 4 5

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2020 Calendar

© Calendar-12.com


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2020 CalendarEnd of Feb early March planning to travel to Vietnam and Philippines subject to confirmation (coronavirus making travel arrangements a little tricky at the moment)


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2 / 2020

IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA AND ASIA this month...

IndiaUAE

UAEKenya

Simon SmithRegional DirectorMiddle East, Africa and India

[email protected]

© Calendar-12.com


30 31 1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

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2020 Calendar

© Calendar-12.com


30 31 1 2 3 4 5

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2020 Calendar

David OliverRegional Manager AfricaCovering South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mauritius

[email protected]

Cape town

Botswana

Durban

Maurituis

Mauritius

Zimbabwe

© Calendar-12.com


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2020 Calendar

© Calendar-12.com


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29 30 31 1 2 3 4

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2020 Calendar


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2 / 2020

IN CONTINENTAL EUROPE this month…

Germany

Belgium /Holland

Holland /Belgium

Spain

Holland

Germany

Colin MacLeanRegional Director Europe

[email protected]

© Calendar-12.com


30 31 1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 1 2 3


27 28 29 30 1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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25 26 27 28 29 30 31


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15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

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29 30 1 2 3 4 5

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20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31 1 2


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24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31 1 2 3 4 5 6


31 1 2 3 4 5 6

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21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30 1 2 3 4


28 29 30 1 2 3 4

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19 20 21 22 23 24 25

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23 24 25 26 27 28 29

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29 30 31 1 2 3 4

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2020 Calendar

© Calendar-12.com


30 31 1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 1 2 3


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4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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22 23 24 25 26 27 28

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13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31 1 2


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10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31 1 2 3 4 5 6


31 1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30 1 2 3 4


28 29 30 1 2 3 4

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12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

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26 27 28 29 30 31 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

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29 30 31 1 2 3 4

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12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

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29 30 31 1 2 3 4

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2020 Calendar


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2 / 2020

newsletter, february 2020 - 1|cornhill · overvalued stocks – what to look out for in 2020 world...

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