next steps to reduce the rtm settlement timeline cops workshop august 29, 2013 mandy bauld ercot

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Next Steps to Reduce the RTM Settlement TimelineCOPS WorkshopAugust 29, 2013

Mandy BauldERCOTDirector, Settlement & Retail Operations(512) 248-6455

ERCOT Update

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Objectives

• Update: NPRR509 (Shortened RTM Settlement Timeline)• Analysis of Possible Impacts of further reductions

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NPRR509 - Assess Impacts to Data Availability and Accuracy1. Availability of actual load data on Initial Settlement (ERCOT)

– AMS– COMP_IDR– NOIE– NIDR

2. Known load data corrections not submitted prior to initial settlements (TDSPs)

3. Known EPS meter data issues not resolved prior to initial settlement (ERCOT)

4. Known markets/operations data issues not resolved prior to initial settlement (ERCOT)

5. Required manual settlement processes not completed for initial settlement (ERCOT)

6. Disputes with root cause traceable to an impact of shortened timeline (ERCOT)

7. Resettlements with root cause traceable to an impact of shortened timeline (ERCOT)

Update: ERCOT is not aware of any related issues






Update: Due to the 1-day acceleration of the data aggregation processes, there has been an increase in use of ERCOT-estimated data. ERCOT has not experienced any related operational issues.

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NPRR509 - Assess Operational Impacts1. Timeliness of ERCOT posting statements, invoices, and related data

2. Timeliness of QSE/CRRAH settlement operations

3. Increase in overtime hours (ERCOT and Market)

4. Increase in staffing levels (ERCOT and Market)

5. Required changes to business process and procedures (ERCOT and Market)

6. Required changes to systems and tools (ERCOT and Market)

Update: ERCOT has executed activities timely and is not aware of any related issues

Update: ERCOT is not aware of any issues specifically related to this reduction. However it was brought to attention that with the reduction to OD+9 from NPRR347 there began to be a lag of availability of calculated data for generation site ESI IDs, vs. other shadow settlement data. This is due to timing of the retail extracts (3-d look-back) and the shortening of the window between the data aggregation job and the statement approval (now 1 day.) Without subsequent change, the gap will remain at 3 days.

Update: ERCOT has not been impacted by overtime hours and is not aware of any related issues

Update: ERCOT did not require additional staffing and is not aware of any related issues

Update: ERCOT implemented process changes and is not aware of any related issues

Update: ERCOT implemented the necessary data configuration changes and is not aware of any related issues

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Further Reduction – Possible Impacts• OD+6 or OD+5: Less Impact

– Under the most ideal scenario – weekday processing and no system issues – there are no notable issues

– Anticipated not to require ERCOT system changes, but would need to confirm through the detailed impact analysis process

– Would require ERCOT process and system configuration changes– Would require additional ERCOT staffing over combined

weekend/holidays and possibly over 3-day weekends (same for TDSP/RE for support) to support MDAS activities

– Would require additional ERCOT staffing over combined weekend/holidays, 3-day weekends, and potentially normal weekends in order to support manual settlement processes, OR would require those to be deferred to the next settlement iteration

– Potential for implementation by next June2014

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Further Reduction – Possible Impacts

• Less than OD+5: More Impact and More Questions– To fully understand impact, need direction on considerations.– Generally, this timeline:

• Would require additional ERCOT staffing over combined weekend/holidays and possibly over 3-day weekends (same for TDSP/RE for support) to support MDAS

• Would require additional ERCOT staffing over combined weekend/holidays and all weekends in order to support manual settlement processes, OR would require those to be deferred to the next settlement iteration

• Increases concerns about risk to untimely settlement if we have any issues. Risk and concern increases as the timeline decreases.

• Increases concerns about risk to untimely settlement under normal system operations, on a timeline less than OD+3

• May require system changes (if there are additional protocol changes)• TBD if could be done by June 2015

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Further Reduction – Possible Impacts• Per previous discussions, simply removing days from the posting timeline is likely

only feasible down to OD+5. Even at OD+5 we need to address some questions.• To further expedite the timeline, involve other considerations in order to understand

the impact to ERCOT and Market Participants (anticipate that the reduction would be coupled with other changes):

– Solve for missing EPS or IDR meter data (utilize telemetry or some default method?)– Pinpoint the specific activity that needs to settle faster (i.e., does all of RTM need to settle faster

or just certain activity risks and challenges vary accordingly)– What is the best approach to settle the identified activity faster? Modify timing of RTM Initial,

incorporate a new RTM settlement iteration with just the necessary activity, or include the activity on a DAM statement?

– If an additional RTM settlement iteration is needed, name it something other than RTM Initial (e.g., “prelim“ or “advisory”) and determine a new timeline for RTM Initial - minimizes impact on items that key off of the RTM Initial

– Is the market comfortable with a “prelim” settlement run using more estimated data if a RTM Initial settlement is “just around the corner”?

– Modify protocol language pre these decisions to capture new/changed calculations using the solution for the "missing" meter data,

– Modify protocol language to incorporate changes in dispute rules regarding settlement using the solution for the "missing" data.

– Determine if faster settlement should be based on the "OD + x calendar days, or the next business day" vs. the "OD = x BD" concept

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Load Changes• A narrow look at differences between Initial and final

– Source data billdeterminant is LSEGUNADJ– Data points are daily total MWH– Analysis was limited to May & June 2013 and competitive IDR meters– Weather category load share percentages are approximately 88% NWS and

12% WS– %Change was calculated from daily total load volumes: (Final – Initial)/Initial– %Change at the ESI ID level could be much different than ERCOT-wide– %Change for a particular entity could be much different than ERCOT-wide– %Estimated was determined by dividing sum of methods IDE,IDP,IDPS

(estimations) by sum of methods IDC, IDE,IDP,IDPS (actual & estimations)– Entities have capability of producing the same info with their individual data– Entities could also produce the same data on an interval-by-interval basis

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Weekday Impact

OD+1 OD+2 OD+3 OD+4 OD+5 OD+6Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug 1-Sep

OD+1 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle1) Validate2) Post Stmt & Inv

OD+2 scenario ODData Agg & Settle

1) Validate2) Post Stmt & Inv







Operating DayNon-Business DayBusiness Days for VEE, Data Integration, Manual Process activitiesSettlement Posting Date

Settlement Timeline

(calendar day or next Bus.

Day)

WEEKDAY IMPACTOperational Activity Schedule Relative to the Operating Day

and the Defined Settlement Timeline

KEY

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Weekend Impact – Normal Weekend

OD+1 OD+2 OD+3 OD+4 OD+5 OD+6Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu

23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug

OD+1 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+2 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+3 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle









KEY

Settlement Timeline


Day)

WEEKEND IMPACT Operational Activity Schedule Relative to the Operating Day


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Weekend Impact – 3 Day Holiday Weekend

OD OD+1 OD+2 OD+3 OD+4 OD+5 OD+6Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu

30-Aug 31-Aug 1-Sep 2-Sep 3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep

OD+1 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+2 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+3 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+4 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle







KEY

HOLIDAY WEEKEND IMPACT Operational Activity Schedule Relative to the Operating Day


Settlement Timeline


Day)

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Weekend Impact – Weekend with Holiday

OD OD+1 OD+2 OD+3 OD+4 OD+5 OD+6 OD+7Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed

27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 30-Nov 1-Dec 2-Dec 3-Dec 4-Dec

OD+1 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+2 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+3 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+4 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle


OD+5 scenario OD

Data Agg & Settle





Settlement Timeline


Day)

THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IMPACTOperational Activity Schedule Relative to the Operating Day and the Defined Settlement Timeline

KEY

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Example of “Homework”

Statement & Invoice

Post Date

Execution of Data

Aggregation & Settlements

Cutoff for EPS Meter

Data Loading

Cutoff for TDSP

provided AMS Data(LSE Files)

Cutoff for TDSP

provided IDR & NIDR

(867 Files)

Completion of Data

Integration from

"Upstream" to Settlements

Data Availability - ERCOT Polled Settlem ent Data (generation)

1) Risk that ERCOT won't have generation data available for settlem ent. (high ris k over holidays, medium risk over weekends , low risk otherwis ) - Cons ider alternative data s ource or default m ethodology for m iss ing generation or have guaranteed s taffing support from TDSPs/REs to s upport work over the com bined weekend/holidays (e.g., Thanksgiving)? - Current perform ance indiactor requires no m ore than 1% change after initial s ettlem ent; would need to address this 2) Need to assess the protocol and procedural timelines for responses /resolution on MDAS activity

Data Availability - AMS Data (LSE file) 1) Expect to have som e TDSP-subm itted AMS data, but not all, available for settlement. - ERCOT data aggregation sys tem has capability to es tim ate this load (currently approx. 6.3M AMS ESI IDs) - ~45% of ERCOT load and ~ 45% of ERCOT load that is currently available on initial s ettlem ent. - Current tracking of ass um ed "ESI IDs with data available" indicates ~ 86% available for this tim eline

Data Availability - Com petitive IDR Data (867 file)

1) High probablility that ERCOT won't have TDSP-s ubm itted IDR data available for s ettlem ent. - ERCOT data aggregation sys tem has capability to es tim ate this load (currently approx. 12,000 ESI IDs) - ~25% of ERCOT load and ~ 4% of ERCOT load that is currently available on initial settlem ent. - Current tracking of ass um ed "ESI IDs with data available" indicates 3.5% to les s than 11% available

Data Availability - NIDR (867 file) -High probablility that ERCOT won't have TDSP-subm itted NIDR data available for settlement. - ERCOT data aggregation sys tem has capability to es tim ate this load (currently approx. 450,000 ESI IDs) - ~3% of ERCOT load and ~0.4% of ERCOT load that is currently available on initial settlem ent. - Current tracking of ass um ed "ESI IDs with data available" indicates 3% to 15% available

Data Availability - NOIE Usage Data (IDR from 867 file or EPS)

1) Expect to have som e but not all of the NOIE TDSP usage data available for settlem ent. - ERCOT data aggregation sys tem has capability to es tim ate this load (currently approx. 1300 IDR ESI IDs ) - ~27% of ERCOT load and ~24% of ERCOT load that is currently available on initial settlem ent. - Current tracking of ass um ed "ESI IDs with data avialable" indicates anywhere from 11% to 77% available for this tim eline

OD + 5 OD + 5 OD + 5 OD + 5 OD + 1

Data Availability - Data Integration 1) Under normal circum s tances , would expect to have ups tream data avialble for a settlem ent run that pos ts on OD+6.

2) Low risk associated with ability to integrate all Operating Day data from MMS and EMS prior to use in settlem ent. - If there is trans fer failure, there is less tim e to res olve the issues prior to settlem ent - ERCOT does not currently have capability to m anually obtain the data outputs generated by the integration sys tem - In the case of trans fer failures, any to all of the data from MMS and EMS to settlem ents could be unavailable

EveningLate

AfternoonEarly

Afternoon"Wee" Hours

of MorningEvening

Data Availability - Manual Settlem ent Process es

1) Manual settlem ent process es could be at risk on this settlem ent iteration for any day with weekend/holiday,d in the process ing window - Com pensation for Em ergency Energy - Real Tim e Market Price Corrections (tim ing issues im pacting that could Thu and Fri ODs) - Verbal Dispatch Ins tructions - Future processes

Operational Im pact - Staffing 1) Staffing plans required to address weekend/holiday s taffing to support m eter data acquis ition and VEE processes at ERCOT. Expected s im ilar im pact on TDSPs and REs. Sam e for m anual s ettlem ent proess es .

Operational Im pact - Procedure Changes 1) Depending on m arket direction, m ay need to change procedures to s upport an additional s ettlem ent iteration2) Depending on m arket direction, m ay need to change procedures for MDAS and VEE activity3) Depending on m arket direction, m ay need to change procedures related to dis pute proces sing

Operational Im pact - Sys tems and/or Tools 1) Depending on m arket direction, m ay need to change sys tem s to support an additional settlem ent iteration2) ) Depending on m arket direction, m ay need to change sys tem s to s upport default/estim ated values for generation

Sum m ary (conclus ions /showstoppers ) Overall, this tim eline is m ore feas ible for a norm al bus iness week/bus iness days schedule, but does have som e challenges to solve related to weekend/holiday s chedule.

Other (including questions or points to consider)

See next tab

OD + 6

ERCOT Activity Timelines (assumed based on typical/current processing requirements)

Risk and ImpactPoints for Consideration

ERCOT Risk and Impact

next steps to reduce the rtm settlement timeline cops workshop august 29, 2013 mandy bauld ercot

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