National Flood Interoperability Experiment

Forecast services Grid to catchment

NHDPlus to RAPID

Forcing

WRF-Hydro

HRRR

ECMWF

NFIE-Hydro

NFIE Project Teams

7 week collaboration

Teams of 3-5 participants will work together to execute agreed

upon project scope and present results at capstone event in

July Teams will be formed based on interests while balancing skills and

institutional diversity Expect Google doc on May 18th with list of potential NFIE projects

If a listed project is not of interest to you, please provide your own idea

Rate your top 2-3 projects on Google doc

Teams will be formed during first week of boot camp Based on Google doc responses, discussions groups will be formed to

elaborate on project ideas

HYDROLOGY Theme lead: Sagy Cohen (University of Alabama)

Title: Regional model calibration of NFIE-Hydro Description: This project will study the WRF-Hydro Noah-MP and RAPID models and perform model calibration at a regional scale. Although the NFIE-Hydro models are operating at a national scale, regional and local scale calibration studies will need to be initiated to ensure adequate model performance; calibration can be performed on both land-surface and flow fluxes. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Reservoir modeling within NFIE-Hydro Description: This project will formulate methods for dealing with reservoirs within a national hydraulic modeling framework. NFIE-Hydro ignores reservoirs but it is possible to use National Weather Service streamflow forecasts at large reservoirs to interrupt flow routing. Using NHDPlus, it is also possible to identify smaller reservoirs and alter routing parameters at these locations accordingly. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Reservoir modeling within NFIE-Hydro

Flow

Legend Dam

Junction

Catchment

Forcing: Runoff and reservoir releases NHDPlus Catchment

Title: Impact of high resolution flowlines on flood forecasting Description: This project will investigate the use of the 24k NHDPlus flowlines and determine whether or not high resolution flowlines are necessary within a national flood forecasting framework. The current system uses 100k NHDPlus flowlines to route flow through the landscape. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Anthroprogenic impacts on flood modeling Description: This project will evaluate the impact of anthroprogenic effects on runoff and streamflow by assessing land cover change, urban infrastructure, storm water systems, reservoir operations, water diversions etc. This project will leverage either the models in the existing NFIE-Hydro framework or others. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Integrating remote sensing and data assimilation into flood modeling Description: Remote sensing has a lot of potential for flood modeling. The Dartmouth Flood Observatory, for example, offers access to derived streamflow and flood inundation extents based on remotely sensed data. This type of data can also be used to validate radar precipitation, land use and more. This project will investigate methods for integrating remotely sensed and other real-time data into flood modeling. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: RAPID inundation mapping

Description: Critical to our understanding of potential flood damage impact, inundation is the bridge to which response and damage assessment are connected to hydrology and hydraulics. With NFIE-Hydro generating 15-hour lead time forecasts of discharge at the catchment level, this project will examine the effectiveness of rapid inundation mapping models using forecast discharge from NFIE-Hydro. In this project, the team will examine the use of several developing technologies, including, but not limited to, SPRNT and AutoRoute. If additional models are available, we can attempt to utilize these as well. The main focus of this project will be to generate rapid inundation maps with NFIE-Hydro forecasts in the MARS region of Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Model Comparisons with Current Forecasts and Observations Description: This comparison will build on an effort currently being carried out by UCAR under the direction of Andy Wood. They have developed a large sample set of watersheds (http://staff.ucar.edu/browse/people/19876/OSGC-000-000-021-510) from which model and forecast skill can be compared. We will use several of these watersheds to monitor/compare the WRF-Hydro and ECMWF/RAPID forecasts to available observed data and results already compiled by the UCAR scientists. Further we will examine ways to use observed data to improve the skill of forecasting from these models. Themes: Hydrology, Uncertainty

Title: A regional study of hydrological modeling frameworks Description: This project will evaluate several modeling frameworks (e.g. NoahMP, VIC, WBM, CLM etc.) at regional scales and compare the advantages and disadvantages of each. Results of model outputs will also be compared to existing NFIE-Hydro forecasts. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics, Uncertainty

Title: Evaluation of flood forecasting in snow/cold regions Description: Current operational systems use empirical temperature index approaches to snowmelt. This can result in incorrect estimates of surface water input which then propagate through to incorrect estimates of runoff and flow. This study would examine the potential for improvements in flood forecasting by using alternative, more physically based models for snowmelt. It would also assess the availability of data needed for these models and identify the data uncertainties that contribute most to forecast uncertainties. Themes: Hydrology, Response

HYDRAULICS Theme lead: Jim Nelson

(BYU)

Title: River modeling, flood mapping and inundation Description: This project will support river routing models by deriving cross-sections from high resolution terrain and bathymetry data, and assimilating existing cross-sections. This project will develop a data model for storing cross-sections and rating curves by referencing the NHDPlus framework and map flood extents based on existing flow calculations. Themes: Hydraulics, Hydrology

Title: Estimating hydraulic parameters for flood inundation mapping Description: One obstacle to the NFIE frameworks ability to forecast flood inundation is that the availability of high-resolution topographic and bathymetric data is limited and varies by region. If the hydraulic parameters needed to model flood inundation (e.g., channel geometry, roughness) could be reasonably estimated from existing geospatial and remotely-sensed data, flood inundation could be more reliably modeled even in the absence of LiDAR or other high-resolution data. The goal of this project would be to develop a set of parameters accessible from existing geospatial datasets that predict channel characteristics as measured from LiDAR. Themes: Hydraulics, Hydrology

Title: Incorporating 2D hydraulic modeling Description: NFIEs high-resolution real-time flood-inundation forecasts could be improved through the incorporation of hydraulic processes using 2D models (e.g. LISFLOOD, TUFLOW, Delft3D) for select reaches where detailed topographic and bathymetric data are available. In this project, students would choose one more appropriate stream reaches for hydraulic modeling, decide which hydraulic model would be best, and create a workflow for linking the NFIE-Hydro outputs to the hydraulic model. Themes: Hydraulics, Hydrology

Title: Incorporating 2D hydraulic modeling

Title: Incorporating coastal processes into NFIE-Hydro Description: Flood forecasting in coastal areas, where the U.S. population is disproportionately concentrated, is complicated by the interaction of riverine and coastal processes. In order for NFIE to reliably forecast floods in these regions, coastal processes such as waves, tides, and storm surge must be explicitly incorporated. The goal of this project would be to link a coastal model (e.g. SLOSH) to the existing NFIE-Hydro framework. Themes: Hydraulics, Hydrology

Title: Incorporating coastal processes into NFIE-Hydro

Title: Analyzing impacts of river morphology Description: While the geometry of river channels significantly affects flood inundation, major flooding events can in turn rearrange river channel morphology, which would then affect inundation from future floods. This dynamic relationship between flood inundation and channel morphology has implications not only for flood hazards, but also for the structure and function of river ecosystems. The goal of this project would be to use the NFIE-Hydro hydrologic forecasts as input to a reach-scale geomorphic model in order to simulate erosion and deposition and resulting channel changes associated with a range of potential flood events. Themes: Hydraulics

UNCERTAINTY Theme lead: David Maidment (University of Texas at Austin)

Title: Statistical analysis for historical flows Description: This project will perform a statistical characterization of modeled flow at the reach scale by driving the RAPID model or other models (e.g. SPRNT) with NLDAS surface and subsurface runoff from 1979 to present. Themes: Uncertainty, Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Statistical analysis for historical flows

Title: Error propagation throuch cascading models Description: Several cascading models are employed in NFIE-Hydro without much of an understanding of how errors in data and model parameters propagate through the system. This project would break the workflow up and study the propagation of errors for various model components at varying spatial scales. A point of departure for this project could be based on tracking how errors in flow propagate through the river network by assessing errors at gages. Themes: Uncertainty, Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Ensemble flood forecasting

Description: This project will utilize the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts to evaluate the use of ensemble flood forecasts. In addition to assessing the validity of the ensemble forecasts, this project will also look into the best mechanisms for communicating ensemble forecasts to the public and response community. Themes: Hydrology, Hydraulics, Response, Uncertainty

Title: Ensemble flood forecasting

RESPONSE Theme lead: Barbara Minsker

(University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

NFIE Emergency Response & Decision Support

Theme

L. Myers

Objectives

Design real-time tools & methods for: Daily flood briefings Decision support (current &

forecast):

Incident type Emergency management

actions

Create functioning prototypes of the above, leveraging other themes work

L. Myers

Daily Flood Briefings

Geospatial dashboard of unfolding event: Extent of flood inundation

Current & forecast risks Include swift water areas

Weather Rainfall rates, radar

Vulnerable areas locations, numbers, types, status Low-water egress Critical infrastructure Vulnerable populations

Emergency response teams & resources locations, numbers, types, status

ESRI.com

Decision Support: Incident Type

Current & forecast risk of incident type Type 1 most complex, national

resources Type 2 regional/state resources Type 3 multiple operational

periods, extensive resources Type 4 & 5 most common, single

to strike team resources

Based on Similarity to historical & design

storms Weather, hydrologic, & hydraulic

model forecasts & error bounds L. Myers

Visual 5.34 General Staff Functions

General Staff Overview Expanding Incidents

Incident Command

Operations Section

Planning Section

Logistics Section

Finance/Admin Section

Directs all response/ tactical actions to achieve the incident objectives.

Activated, as needed, to support the incident response directed by the Operations Section.

Visual 5.35 General Staff Functions

Expanding Incidents Expanding incidents may add supervisory layers to the organizational structure as needed.

Divisions Groups

Units Branches

Single Resources

Sections

Incident Commander

Operations Section Chief

Command

Visual 5.36 General Staff Functions

Geographic Divisions & Groups Divisions, led by a Supervisor, are used to divide an incident geographically.

East Division Supervisor

Search & Rescue Strike Team 1

Perimeter Security Strike Team 1

Medical Aid Strike Team 1

Shelter and Feeding Task Force 1

Recovery Group Supervisor

Damage Assessment Task Force

Restoration/Recovery Task Force

West Division Supervisor

Search & Rescue Strike Team 2

Perimeter Security Strike Team 2

Medical Aid Strike Team 2

Shelter and Feeding Task Force 2

Operations Section Chief

Decision Support: Emergency Management Actions Safest/fastest routes for evacuation & rescue

Evacuation vs shelter in place decisions Road & bridge closings Reverse 911 messages Other risk communication messages e.g., videos of upstream

damage, cues to action

Optimal resource deployments (rescue teams, equipment)

L. Myers

/10

Modeling Infrastructure Damage: Hazus-MH

Simulates actions of a group of autonomous agents (each agent follows his individual behavior rules and update these rules under changing environments) to assess system behavior as a whole.

Snapshot from www.YouTube

Starling flock pattern

Modeling Human Response: Agent-Based Models

Title: Decision support for flood forecasting (first responders) Description: Design & implement a prototype decision dashboard for daily flood briefings before and during an emergency to create a common operating picture of the unfolding situation. We anticipate that the information would be presented as a geospatial dashboard (e.g., layers on Google maps) containing model forecasts from the other projects, as well as other pertinent information. This would include the extent and type of flood inundation; weather; and status of vulnerable areas and emergency response teams and resources. Themes: Response

Title: Decision support for flood forecasting (public) Description: Based on the safest and fastest routes currently available, optimization and machine learning algorithms will be created to provide recommendations for: (1) evacuate vs. shelter in place, (2) road or bridge closings, (3) reverse 911 messages, transmitting instructions from emergency operations to residents, and (4) other risk communication messages such as videos of upstream damage or other cues to action. To accomplish these goals, simulation models of critical infrastructure and human response to an unfolding crisis will need to be created. The former could involve using using Hazus-MH, which models bridges, buildings, traffic, power, etc. The latter could involve developing agent-based models based on data and previous findings of the Center for Advanced Public Safety. Themes: Response

Title: Flash flood prediction

Description: Given historical data on flash flood locations and times, train machine learning models to identify rainfall patterns that lead to different patterns of flooding. Use the machine learning models to provide alerts when conditions are similar to those that have led to flash flooding in the past. Historical data could be 911 and 411 calls, what the call was about (search text for mentions of flood), and GPS coordinates/addresses. Social media or video data could also be added. Themes: Hydrology, Response

Title: Identifying flood hazard zones

Description: The National Flood Hazard layer shows the potential extent of flooding for an event of a given return period. Through modeling and statistical analyses, one can determine the potential hazard associated with a given flow event by intersecting the flood hazard and NHDPlus catchment layer. This project will work to provide a system and interface through which flow forecasts can be used to signal hazard at the catchment level by color coding hazard zones based on risk. Themes: Response, Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Identifying flood hazard zones

Title: Flood simulator

Description: It is important that results from hydraulic models adequately convey results to emergency management personnel so that they can make decisions. One way we can help to do this is create a simulator that allows them to examine results from models generated for multiple possible flooding scenarios. In this way they can simultaneously understand the results models provide and use them to play what if scenarios or replay actual events and practice their decision making. We have already set up the GSSHA model to do this kind of thing with Tethys in the Canned GSSHA model. We hope to add display of floodplain maps to this app, but this could be part of this project. We can also explore using other models/results in a similar fashion. Themes: Response, Hydrology, Hydraulics

Title: Flood simulator

National Flood Interoperability ExperimentSlide Number 2NFIE Project TeamsHYDROLOGYTheme lead: Sagy Cohen(University of Alabama)Title: Regional model calibration of NFIE-HydroTitle: Reservoir modeling within NFIE-HydroTitle: Reservoir modeling within NFIE-HydroTitle: Impact of high resolution flowlines on flood forecastingTitle: Anthroprogenic impacts on flood modelingTitle: Integrating remote sensing and data assimilation into flood modelingTitle: RAPID inundation mappingTitle: Model Comparisons with Current Forecasts and ObservationsTitle: A regional study of hydrological modeling frameworksTitle: Evaluation of flood forecasting in snow/cold regionsHYDRAULICSTheme lead: Jim Nelson(BYU)Title: River modeling, flood mapping and inundationTitle: Estimating hydraulic parameters for flood inundation mappingTitle: Incorporating 2D hydraulic modelingTitle: Incorporating 2D hydraulic modelingTitle: Incorporating coastal processes into NFIE-HydroTitle: Incorporating coastal processes into NFIE-HydroTitle: Analyzing impacts of river morphologyUNCERTAINTYTheme lead: David Maidment(University of Texas at Austin)Title: Statistical analysis for historical flowsTitle: Statistical analysis for historical flowsTitle: Error propagation throuch cascading modelsTitle: Ensemble flood forecastingTitle: Ensemble flood forecastingRESPONSETheme lead: Barbara Minsker(University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)NFIE Emergency Response & Decision Support ThemeObjectivesDaily Flood BriefingsDecision Support: Incident TypeGeneral Staff Overview Expanding IncidentsExpanding IncidentsGeographic Divisions & GroupsDecision Support: Emergency Management ActionsModeling Infrastructure Damage: Hazus-MHModeling Human Response: Agent-Based ModelsTitle: Decision support for flood forecasting (first responders)Title: Decision support for flood forecasting (public)Title: Flash flood predictionTitle: Identifying flood hazard zonesTitle: Identifying flood hazard zonesTitle: Flood simulatorTitle: Flood simulator