nielsen economic current: november 2009
DESCRIPTION
Global Consumer Confidence Rebounding, and Sales Start to FollowNielsen Wire - November 30, 2009Global consumers are increasingly feeling confident about the state of the economy and their own finances, and while Asia has spearheaded that rebound, signs are pointing to improved consumer behavior in other parts of the world. According to the latest edition of the Nielsen Economic Current, volume and value sales reached their highest point since the monthly survey was launched in January 2009. Of the twelve countries examined, only one – Germany – showed a decline in the survey, while France and Taiwan recorded improvement.Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/global-consumer-confidence-rebounding-and-sales-start-to-follow/TRANSCRIPT
Todd HaleJames Russo
Jonathan BanksJean-Jacques Vandenheede
November 2009
KPI Summary
France
Spain
Chg vs. Previous
Month
United Kingdom
Italy
United States
China
Hong Kong
Aug 09
Sep 09
Brazil
India
Taiwan
Canada
Germany
Sep’09
Apr ‘09
May ‘09
Jun ‘09
Jul‘09
Aug ‘09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence ^
Global Topline: Summary of All Countries
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Highest overall ranking for volume and value sales since scorecard began in Jan 2009
Nielsen Global Scorecard
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR TW HK IN CN
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Growth in global consumer behavior beyond Asia, driven by shift to value channels and increased promotions
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
September Topline
Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
Regional Summary
Q3’09 Chg
LA 94 +2
AP 91 +6
MEAP 84 =
NA 85 +4
EU 76 +3
10298
94
8884
7782
86
2H'06 1H'07 2H'07 1H'08 2H'08 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence and Opinion Survey, change vs prior qtr
Consumer Confidence Index
+ 4 pts+ 4 pts
Global consumer confidence is starting to rebound.
26%25%
24%
Global Europe US
+1 -1+1
Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey September 2009 versus June 2009
We’re not out of the woods yet –consumers are still uncertain about the future
% of global HHs that believe they will be out of a recession in the next 12 mos
14%
10%
12%
6%
7%
7%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
13%
10%
11%
9%
9%
6%
1%
18%
1%
6%
6%
8%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
The economy
Job security
Health
Work/life balance
Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc)
Childrens education and/or welfare
Debt
Increasing food prices
Parents welfare and happiness
Political stability
Global warming
Crime
Increasing fuel prices
Terrorism
War
Biggest concern
Second biggest
Source: Global Consumer Confidence October 09Base: All Respondents
Global (54 countries)31%
13%13%13%
9%7%
6%6%
5%4%
2%
24%22%21%
15%
The economy and job security remain the biggest concerns for global customers
Country Highlights & Insights
Weekly Blog Buzz Trend* across U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, New Zealand (Data covers 01/01/2009 – 11/14/2009
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Message
Count
Recession ‐ Global Recovery‐Global
Global buzz on recession and recovery has stabilized. Recession Concerns still high
Sep09
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Branded and Store Brands Step Up Promotions
USA Summary
Sep09
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Unit sales rebound as price increases stabilize at +2%Consumers are still focused on value; buying on promotion
and shopping discount – fuelled by National Brands
Canada Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Shopper frequency slows
France Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Unit sales and dollar sales remain moderate
Germany Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Budget and standard store brands’ growth slows, premium store brands return to growth
Volume sales improvingU.K. Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Ongoing Shift to Value Channels, overall frequency down
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Italy Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Gain in optimism beginning to be reflected in spending
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Spain Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
All indicators show that Brazil has regained levels prior to the crisis. The outlook for investment is optimistic: The infrastructure package for FIFA 14 and
Olympics 16, pre-salt, Madeira River hydroelectric - Belo Monte, represent a considerable investment for the next 5 ~ 10 years
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Brazil Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Consistent volume and value sales gains of +5%, rebound in optimism
India Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
While retail sales are still relatively flat, growth is now apparent in Modern Trade outlets which may be the first sign
of an FMCG sales recovery in China
China Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Total FMCG enjoyed a positive growth of 1.4% in period ending Sep 2009 mainly driven by Food & Beverage categories who rebounded this month
while including the effects of Ghost Festival. The outperformance in Modern trade mainly driven by Food categories while Non-Food grew at a steady pace; however, Food categories underperformed in General Trade while
Non-Food grew even more driven by Drug stores
Taiwan Summary
Aug09
Sep09
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 86
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Hong Kong Summary
Total FMCG sustained a mild growth. Baby categories continued to outgrow other categories given the strong surge
in IMF (Infant Milk Formula) supported by purchase from Mainland China.
United StatesJames Russo, [email protected] Hale, [email protected]
Western EuropeJean-Jacques [email protected]
Jonathan [email protected]
CanadaCarman Allison, [email protected]
RussiaNatalia [email protected]
BrazilMargarita [email protected]
Tatiana [email protected]
LATAMEva Gonzales, [email protected]
IndiaJayashree [email protected]
ChinaPhoebe [email protected]
TaiwanCheryl [email protected]
Hong KongAcky [email protected]
Nielsen Global BuzzChelsea [email protected]
Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]
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