NJ TRANSIT

BOARD ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE MEETING OPEN TO MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC

THURSDAY, JUNE 21, 2018 11:30 AM

ONE PENN PLAZA EAST 9TH FLOOR BOARD ROOM

NEWARK, NJ 07105

NJ TRANSIT BOARD

ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE MEETING OPEN TO MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC

THURSDAY, JUNE 21, 2018

11:30 AM – BOARD ROOM – 9TH FLOOR – NEWARK, NJ

PUBLIC COMMENTS ON AGENDA (Two minutes per speaker) STAFF REPORT FINANCIAL UPDATE (PRESENTER: WILLIAM VIQUEIRA)

FINANCIAL UPDATE

March 2018 Ridership Report _____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

1

March 2018 Passenger Ridership

• March ridership was -4.2% below last year, in raw numbers.

o Ridership was just –0.6% lower

than last year when factoring out calendar differences, major weather incidents and special events (Adjusted Percent Change).

o Weekday travel by week rip-sawed due to the timing of winter storms this year and last. The final week of the month saw comparable year-year weather with rain on four days each year; weekday travel that week averaged +0.6% above last year.

o Weekend ridership was up throughout the month due to favorable weather conditions, as rain and snow steered clear of March weekends. Overall weekend travel was up +7.4% from last year.

• Latest 12 months ridership collectively has totaled 260.1 million passenger trips, -2.5% lower than the 12 months prior to that.

• Outside of arctic conditions around New Year’s, the improvement in year-over-year weekday ridership trends has continued.

o First twelve weeks of FY18, weekdays

were -2.6% lower.

o Next 13 weeks until the last week in December weekdays -0.7% off last year.

o During late December and early January’s

extreme cold, weekday travel dropped -15% from last year.

o Latest twelve weeks in January, February

and March, weekdays just -0.3% below last year.

Passenger Ridership (millions)

Mar. 2018

Mar. 2017

Raw

Percent Change

Adjusted Percent Change

Bus 12.1 12.8 (- 5.0%) (- 0.3%) Rail 6.9 7.1 (- 3.4%) (- 0.7%) Light Rail 1.9 1.9 (- 2.2%) (- 2.2%) Total

20.9

21.8

(- 4.2%)

(- 0.6%)

Passenger Ridership (millions)

Latest 12 Months

This Year

Latest 12 Months

Last Year

Percent Change

Bus 151.9 155.1 (- 2.1%) Rail 84.9 87.7 (- 3.2%) Light Rail 23.3 23.9 (- 2.5%) Total

260.1

266.7

(- 2.5%)

270 263

254

264 261 267

272 273 265

240

250

260

270

280

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

Psgr

Trip

s - M

illio

ns

Moving 12 Month Ridership Totals

700,000

775,000

850,000

925,000

1,000,000

Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Average Weekday Psgr Trips By Week

FY18FY17

260

March 2018 Ridership Report _____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

2

Bus Ridership

• March Bus ridership was -5.0% lower than last year, in raw numbers.

o –0.3% lower than last March when

adjusted for distortions caused by calendar differences, major weather incidents and special events.

o Bus weekday ridership impacted by recurring winter storms; better weather sent weekend travel +6.9% higher than last March.

Rail Ridership • March Rail ridership -3.4% lower than last

year, in raw numbers.

o –0.7% lower than last March when adjusted for distortions.

o Winter storms cut into weekday travel, though weekends were +6.0% higher than last year.

Light Rail Ridership

• March Light Rail ridership -2.2% below last year.

o HBLR (- 3.9%) o Newark Light Rail (- 5.0%) o River LINE +14.5%

o Average weekday travel -2.9%

lower than last year; weekends +21.0% higher with benign weather conditions

20.9

21.5

22.0

22.6

23.1

19

21

22

24

25

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- Mill

ions

Systemwide Ridership By Month

12.2

12.5

12.8

13.2

13.5

10.5

11.6

12.8

13.9

15.0

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- Mill

ions

Bus Ridership By Month

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

6.1

6.6

7.0

7.5

7.9

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- M

illio

ns

Rail Ridership By Month

1.87

1.92

1.97

2.02

2.07

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.2

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- M

illio

ns

Light Rail Ridership By Month

FY17 FY18

Trend

FY18

FY17

FY17

FY18

Trend

Trend

Trend

FY18 FY17

March 2018 Ridership Report _____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

3

New York City Market Ridership

• March New York City Market ridership was -2.6% below last year. Weekday travel was impacted by March’s several winter storms.

• Rail trips were -2.7% below last March; Bus trips were -2.5% lower.

• Hoboken exhibited the brightest Rail year-year result at +5.9%; Newark Penn -2.9%; and NY Penn -4.1% below last February.

• NY Bus travel was strongest in the north and northeast corner of the state.

• Trend shows relatively stable New York City travel.

North Jersey Market Ridership

• March in-state North Jersey travel was -6.0% below last year.

• North Jersey Light Rail ridership -4.2% below last year; Rail -4.8%; Bus -6.6%.

• Trend shows declining ridership.

South Jersey Market Ridership

• March South Jersey ridership -4.2% below last year.

• South Jersey Light Rail ridership +14.5% above last year; Rail -0.6%; Bus -6.8%.

• Trend shows diminishing South Jersey ridership since the 2nd quarter of fiscal year 2013.

10.4

10.7

10.9

11.2

11.5

9.0

9.8

10.5

11.3

12.0

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- Mill

ions

NY City Market Ridership By Month

8.1

8.3

8.5

8.7

9.0

7.0

7.8

8.5

9.3

10.0

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- Mill

ions

North Jersey Market Ridership By Month

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.4

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Tren

d Li

ne -

Mill

ions

FY17

& F

Y18

- Mill

ions

South Jersey Market Ridership By Month

Trend

Trend

Trend

FY18

FY18

FY17

FY17

FY17

FY18

March 2018 Ridership Report _____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

4

Weather

• A series of winter storms impacted the service area each week during the month, leading to the highest instance of March weekday precipitation days in over a decade. Weekend, though, were spared, with high temps approaching 50 degrees each day.

• 4.48 inches of precipitation fell during March, +7% higher than normal.

• Snowfall totaled 13.2 inches, including 4.6 inches on March 7 and 7.9 inches on March 21. The late winter sun angle and temperatures quickly melted the accumulated snow in both instances, though not after disrupting travel.

• Compared against last March, temperatures averaged higher though it was slightly drier.

o March saw 11 days with precipitation;

last year 11 days; past decade has averaged 9.1 March precip days.

o March precipitation amount -12% lower than last year.

Calendar & Special Events

• There was one less weekday and one more Saturday than last March. Good Friday occurred during March this year; last year it fell in April.

• There were no MetLife Stadium events this month.

Economy

• Preliminary March employment data shows regional employment growth of +1.6%, in line with recent trends.

o NY City +1.6% o New Jersey +1.6% o Philadelphia +1.5% o Region +1.6%

• Nationally, employment during March was

+1.6% higher than last year.

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 10 20 31

Degr

ees

F

March 2018

Average Daily Temperature - Newark Airport

0

4

8

12

16

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Day

s

March Precipitation Days - Newark Airport

Weekend DaysWeekdays

19.5

20.9

22.3

23.6

25.0

7.8

8.2

8.6

8.9

9.3

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Mov

ing

Avg

Ride

rshi

p (m

illio

ns)

Mov

ing

Avg

Empl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

Employment & Ridership Trend

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

FY16

Jul

Sep

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ayFY

17 Ju

lSe

ptN

ov Jan

Mar

May

FY18

Jul

Sep

Nov Ja

nM

ar

Regi

onal

Em

ploy

men

t Gro

wth

FY 2016-17-18 Regional Employment Growth By Month

..... Normal

<< Employment Trend Scale

Ridership Trend Scale >>

Average during each fiscal year

March 2018 Ridership Report _____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

5

Gasoline Prices

• March regional gasoline prices were +11% higher than last February, though still -30% lower than five years ago.

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) on New Jersey Roads

• February New Jersey VMT (latest data available) as calculated by the USDOT Federal Highway Administration was +0.4% higher than one year earlier.

• During the past 12 months NJ VMT has been -0.2% lower than the 12 months before that.

• NJ VMT peaked during the 12 months ended in January 2017; current levels are just -0.4% off that all-time 12 month peak.

~end

$0.00

$1.25

$2.50

$3.75

$5.00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Pric

e Pe

r Gal

lon

Inflation-Adjusted Regional Gasoline Price History

4.5

5.1

5.8

6.4

7.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Billi

on V

ehic

le M

iles

Vehicle Miles Traveled on NJ Roads

Monthly Data Moving Average