–SVEN SCHNEE, @MRSNOW76,

SVEN.SCHNEE@OIKOSOFY.COM

#NoEstimates

The Art of Getting your Product Development back

on Track

Source: N@ncyN@nce, Some rights reserved

Sven Schnee

@MrSnow76

mrsnow76.blogspot.de

slideshare.net/MrSnow7

6

sven.schnee@oikosofy.com

sven.schnee@oikosofy.com SMS: +49 172 835 4210

http://j.mp/NoEstimates-Book

Get your Free Copy of the Book!

R E A S O N S F O R

E S T I M A T I N G

source: Phil Gerbyshak, some rights reserved

I N V E S T M E N T

D E C I S I O N S A N D

P R I O R I T I S A T I O N

REASONS FOR ESTIMATING

Source: epSos .de, some rights reserved

Source: VersionOne 9th State of Agile Survey

• Investments and projects are run by “how long does it

take, how much does it cost”

• Backlogs are prioritised by how long does it take,

because it’s easier

R I S K M I T I G A T I O NREASONS FOR ESTIMATING

• Complex features normally are riskier and take longer,

estimation unveils complex features

• Most complex items should be prioritised high or

highest, to avoid failing late

• if you don’t know how long it takes, will you make that

critical market window or that fixed date?

W E W A N T T O K N O W W H E N

W E ’ R E D O N E

REASONS FOR ESTIMATING

Source: Moyan Brenn, some rights reserved

• Developers are WTF!?#…

• Project managers are..

• Middle managers want to make sure that senior

management is happy with the progress

• Senior management needs to report to the investors

What we already know…

source: thinboyfatter, some rights reserved

F E A T U R E S F O R T H E

N E X T 1 - 3 M O N T H S

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW

W H A T W E W E R E A B L E T O

D O T H E L A S T 3 - 6

M O N T H S

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW

H O W M U C H M O N E Y W E

C A N S P E N D

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW

T H E R I G H T S L I C I N G I S T H E A R T O F

# N O E S T I M A T E S

S T O R YF E A T U R EE P I CT H E M E

AGILE BREAKDOWN OF THE WORK

T H E R I G H T S I Z E W H E N Y O U N E E D

I T

O N L Y W H A T I S N E E D E D

N O W , N O T M O R E

AGILE BREAKDOWN OF THE WORK

D O N ’ T F O C U S O N M O R E

T H A N 2 - 3 M O N T H S

AGILE BREAKDOWN OF THE WORK

A P R O J E C T

G E T S D E L A Y E D

O N E D A Y A T A

T I M E

THE RIGHT SLICING

T H E O N L Y R E A L M E A S U R E O F

P R O G R E S S I S R U N N I N G T E S T E D

S O F T W A R E

A PROJECT GETS DELAYED ONE DAY AT A T IME

H O W D O C O M P A N I E S M E A S U R E T H E

“ S U C C E S S ” O F T H E I R P R O J E C T S ?

A PROJECT GETS DELAYED ONE DAY AT A T IME

Source: VersionOne 9th State of Agile Survey

W H E N I S A N A G I L E

I N I T I A T I V E C O N S I D E R E D

S U C C E S S F U L ?

A PROJECT GETS DELAYED ONE DAY AT A T IME

Source: VersionOne 9th State of Agile Survey

S O L V E D E P E N D E N C I E S

E A R L Y , I N T E G R A T E

O F T E N

A PROJECT GETS DELAYED ONE DAY AT A T IME

D O N ’ T A C C E P T

E X C U S E S

A PROJECT GETS DELAYED ONE DAY AT A T IME

H O W T O A P P L Y

# N O E S T I M A T E S

source: Keoni Cabral, some rights reserved

M A K E A L L

W O R K V I S I B L E

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

source: Rich Savage, some rights reserved

Team1

Team2

Team3

Team4

Team5

Team6

Team7

Team8

Team9

S T O P E V E R Y T H I N G T H A T I S

N O T D E L I V E R I N G R E A L

V A L U E

MAKE ALL WORK VISIBLE

P R O J E C T S H A V E H U G E

O V E R H E A D W H E N T H E Y A R E

L O N G - T E R M

MAKE ALL WORK VISIBLE

by Joseph Bylund, some rights reserved

D O N ’ T S T A R T T O O

M A N Y T H I N G S I N

P A R A L L E L

MAKE ALL WORK VISIBLE

V I S U A L I S E A N D

I D E N T I F Y T H E

Q U E U E S T H A T

Y O U H A V E

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

S T A R T W I T H T H E

T E A M S

VISUALISE AND IDENTIFY THE QUEUES

A F T E R T H E T E A M S F I N D A L L

S U B M A R I N E S A N D E L I M I N A T E

T H E M

VISUALISE AND IDENTIFY THE QUEUES

Joe

JaneJudy

JosephJanine

Jim

G A T H E R T H E

D A T A O F Y O U R

T E A M S P A S T

V E L O C I T Y

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

O N L Y F O R

C O M P A R A B L E P E R I O D S

I N T I M E

GATHER TEAMS PAST VELOCITY

D O N ’ T C O U N T T A S K S ,

B U G S A N D O T H E R

GATHER TEAMS PAST VELOCITY

C R E A T E Y O U R

F I R S T B U R N -

U P

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

H O W T O C R E A T E Y O U R F I R S T B U R N -

U P

1. sum up all the Scope that you know of

2. don’t break down future work (4- x months)

3. if you have a fixed end date add an “optimum” line

4. fill in the changed scope and finished scope every

week or sprint

5. start managing the scope

S O M E

C O M P A R I S O N

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

Source: Vasco Duarte #NoEstimates presentation

#NoEstimates

RegularEstimates

“The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy

N O W L E T M E T E L L Y O U

A S E C R E T

T H E S E C R E T B E H I N D

# N O E S T I M A T E S

• Every team has their average story size

• Product Owners can learn how to create chunks of 1-3

days of work

• Teams can produce finished increments every sprint

• You’ll have the most accurate forecast ever FOR

FREE

S O M E M O R E

C O M P A R I S O N

A long project

24Sprints

Disclaimer...This is only one project!

Find 21 more at: http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjectsDB

After just 3 sprints

# of Stories predictive powerStory Points predictive power

The true output: 349,5 SPs

completed

The predictedoutput: 418 SPs

completed

+20%

The true output: 228 Stories

The predictedoutput: 220

Stories

-4%!

After just 5 sprints

# of Stories predictive powerStory Points predictive power

The true output: 349,5 SPs

completed

The predictedoutput: 396 SPs

completed

+13%

The true output: 228 Stories

The predictedoutput: 220

Stories

-4%!

S O M E S I M P L E

M A T H

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

source: Dylan Ng, some rights reserved

S A M P L E C A L C U L A T E D C O S T O F

D O I N G E S T I M A T E S F O R A O N E Y E A R

P R O J E C T

5 Minute / Story Discussion

x # Stories

x # Number Team Members

5 x 5 x 8 = 200 Minutes

x 2 week’s sprints = 53/2 = ~25 sprints

25 x 200 = 5000 Minutes = 83 hours = ~3,5 days

S T O P E S T I M A T I N G N O W A N D Y O U ’ L L

G A I N H A L F A S P R I N T E V E R Y Y E A R

W R A P I T U P

APPLY #NOESTIMATES

source: Jim Bauer, some rights reserved

S C R U M A N D A L S O

# N O E S T I M A T E S C A N N O T W O R K

W I T H O U T X P

V A R I A B I L I T Y , C O M P L E X I T Y ,

A C C I D E N T A L C O M P L I C A T I O N A R E

N A T U R A L E N E M I E S O F E S T I M A T E S

C R E A T E T R A N S P A R E N C Y T A C K L E

Y O U R C O D E Q U A L I T Y A N D F I X Y O U R

R E Q U I R E M E N T S F U N N E L

https://oikosofyseries.com/smidig_noestimates

https://oikosofyseries.com/smidig_noestimates

https://oikosofyseries.com/smidig_noestimates

T H A N K Y O U !

– S V E N S C H N E E , @ M R S N O W 7 6 ,

S V E N . S C H N E E @ O I K O S O F Y . C O M