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#NoEstimatesThe What, Why & How

Mark So Daniel Prager @agilejitsu

The #NoEstimates Game

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Common Perceptions of Estimates?

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The problems with estimates?Solidifies ignorancePredicting something when we know the least about it

Raises unrealistic expectationsCreates expectation that we will deliver to the estimates

Wastes capacityWhen estimates are wrong – it delivers no real business value

Reduces trustThey can lead to mistrust when expectations are not met

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FACTOnly 12% of projects delivered on time

or on budget Source: Chaos report 2014

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Why are we still doing estimates?• The need to obtain funding• Set release dates• Understand resourcing requirements• Align other business functions, e.g.

• Marketing• Training

• Establish the ‘how much scope can I fit into X amount time for Y amount of $’ equation

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We are not alone • #NoEstimates is a movement that

explores alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development.

• That is, ways to make decisions with “NoEstimates”.

• Twitter movement initially started by Woody Zuill, Neil Killick & Vasco Durate

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The #NoEstimates Game

• http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-noestimates-game.html

• http://skillfire.co/project-forecaster/ Credit: Adrian Fittolani

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What can we learn from #NoEstimates?

• Uncertainty is part of life for project delivery• You cannot ignore it

• Incorporate uncertainties into your planning• Use data gathered from previous experience

• Much of the time spent estimating is better spent on actually ‘doing’ the work• Generate learnings, validate and adjust predictions

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So how do we actually do that?• Use pilot projects to discover the unknown• Time box effort

• Slice work into smaller pieces (~ few days per story? )• Seed funding to deliver small chunks of working product

• Build, measure & learn• Capture cycle time and use modelling to

forecast schedules

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Source & Inspirations• http://scrumage.com/blog/2015/09/agile-project-forecasting-the-monte-carlo-method/ • https://neilkillick.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/noestimates-is-neither-the-destination-nor-the-

journey/ • http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-noestimates-game.html • http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2016/05/how-to-make-a-decision-in-the-presence-

of-uncertainty.html• http://scrumandkanban.co.uk/no-estimates/• http://ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/• https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white-papers/chaos-report.pdf

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Thank You