noaa climas nasa eos nsf sahra noaa gapp human dimensions climate and society: working with a nation...
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NOAA CLIMAS
NASA EOS
NSF SAHRANOAA GAPP
Human Dimensions
Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of [email protected]
Holly C. Hartmann
NASA HyDIS
Raytheon Synergy
Issue: So Many Stakeholders!Issue: So Many Stakeholders!
Continental Scale: Focus of climate modelers
Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist
Different Scales (time & space)Different IssuesDifferent Stakeholders
Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise
• Transferability
• Scalability
• Changed decisions and decision processes
• Public support for climate research
Enabling system-wide change
Sustainability
National PerspectivesNational Perspectives
Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise
• Transferability
• Scalability
• Changed decisions and decision processes
• Public support for climate research
Enabling system-wide change
Sustainability
National Perspectives: NOAA RISA ProgramNational Perspectives: NOAA RISA Program
Integrative: researchers/stakeholders, interdisciplinary, end-to-end
Participatory, Iterative: responsive to stake- holder concerns
On-going Process: mutual capacity building & sustainable legacy products
Products: link variability, impacts, response options
Equitable: outcomes benefit participants & equitably so
www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS
Stakeholder Interactions:Multiple TechniquesStakeholder Interactions:Multiple Techniques
One-on-One Interviews
Town Hall Meetings
Conferences and Workshops
Product Evaluation
Group Discussions & Training
www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS
Poor interactions with users affects:• opportunities for future work• credibility of agencies, institutions and products
“What are your motives?” (agenda)
“How long is your project really going to last?” (failed promises of past projects)
“What did you do with the last survey?” (checking your responsiveness)
Lessons from StakeholdersLessons from Stakeholders
Building Expectations and Trust
• Building trust requires repetition & responsiveness
• Concerns: agendas, science will be used to hurt them
• Effective stakeholder integration generate support for science funding & programs
Efficiency
Work with hydropower agencies & other high-value clients
Develop customized evaluation tools
Transfer to agencies
Equity
Also work with stakeholders affected by changing supplies & policies
Develop tools for knowledge development and diverse decision processes
Provide on-going support of research products and tools
Impact
Work with regulatory & policy agencies
Inform water supply policy via peer-reviewed science & policy analysis
Project Objectives Affect TacticsProject Objectives Affect Tactics
Common across all groups: climate vs. weather
Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation
Understand implications of “normal” vs. “EC” vs. “unknown” forecasts
Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill
Unique among stakeholders
Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics
Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics
Role of of forecasts in decision making
Common across many, but not all, stakeholders
Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products
Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context
Role & Use of Climate Info & Forecasts
Re-Interpreted Forecast Products Often WrongRe-Interpreted Forecast Products Often Wrong
New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp OutlooksNew Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks
New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp OutlooksNew Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks
Forecast formats affect
the ease, accuracy, and reliability of
interpretation - and correct
interpretation is essential.
Climate Test Bed: process for ensuring
communication
effectiveness
http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/
Initially for NWS CPC climate forecastsAdding water supply forecasts
Six elements in our webtool:• Exploring Forecast Progression• Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials• Historical Context• Forecast Performance• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research
20042003 2005
Historical Context for Forecasts: Analogs
A
Frequency of Actual Forecasts
F
D
B
E
C
Forecast Forecast
# Issued Coverage
A JFM JJAS
B JFM JJAS
C JFM ONDJ
D ASO ONDJ
E JFM AMJJ
F ASO DJFMAM
temperature precipitation
precipitation precipitation
precipitation precipitation
Temperature: Warm Precipitation: Dry
Will forecasts warn me of an
impending ‘critical’ event?
Given a ‘critical’
forecast, can I trust it?
Probability of Detection
False Alarm Rate
Forecasts issued JFM, covering JJAS
Issues for Stakeholders
- too much information
- can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information
Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users
Ease of Use Profile and Projects: save a history of your work on each "project", so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.
Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users
Accessibility Report Generation
• create PDF reports of your analyses for non-Internet users
• automatically includes legends, data sourcing, contact information, caveats, explanations
• sections for user-customized (value-added) comments
Ease of Use Automated Alerts: using ‘push’ technology to monitor conditions and prompt special notification
Part 1 -- Alert Detection and Notification
• Obtain real-time data
• Test against thresholds
• Notify individuals: email, cell phone
Automated Threshold Alert System
Clarify thresholds
Alert Levels
Yellow = Hiccup
Orange = Heartburn
Red = Heart Attack
Automated Threshold Alert System
Clarify thresholds
Part 2 – Respond, Report, Review: Interactive Website
• Summarize threshold exceedance events: ‘Live Forms’
• Community assessment of event, cause, impacts: ‘Live Forms’
• Archive stable ‘.pdf’ reports for annual review
• Self-management of projects, without software maintenance
Part 3 – New Possibility: Combine CLIDDSS and Alert System
• Monitor products in a portfolio, send ‘alerts’ when condition(s) meet thresholds, initiate field reports
• Field reports via ‘Live Web Form’ or cell phone text messages
• Connects human observations with automated gauges, expands the ‘observation’ network
Lessons Learned: Decision Support Tools
StakeholdersInformation
needs, understanding,
access Social ScienceEffective
communication
Natural Science
Forecast skill,interpretation Computer
ScienceWeb
programming
• Transferable, scalable tools are possible!
• Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information.
Interactive webtools require major commitment and resources.
Prototypes insufficient!Stakeholders need reliable tools, which require solid software foundation, organized development, sustainability for maintenance and expansion.
The Human Dimension of Integrated Research The Human Dimension of Integrated Research
???
1. Good Intentions
2. Momentary Integration
3. Regression
Physical Science
Social Science
Stake holders
Building expectations: affects credibility of agencies, research
Requires incentives, infrastructure, continuity, stability
Climate and Society: Whose Messages Get Through?