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NOAA CLIMAS NASA EOS NSF SAHRA NOAA GAPP Forecast Assessment: Tactics, Techniques, and Tools Holly C. Hartmann Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona hollyh@hwr.arizona.edu hollyoregon@juno.com NASA HyDIS Raytheon Synergy

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NOAA CLIMAS NASA EOS NSF SAHRA NOAA GAPP NASA HyDIS Raytheon Synergy Concepts of integration Our hydrology teams experience Examples of usable science Lessons learned Forecast Assessment: Tactics, Techniques, and Tools

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Calls for Societally Relevant Research and Products Information is appropriate to the knowledge and concerns of the recipient. Ensure that.. modeling improvements and data products are useful to the water resources management community. Develop a strategy for how these could be made more useful for [user] purposes. Need studies of the benefits and costs of [hydroclimatic] information services. Increase the value of weather and related information to society. Bring scientific outputs and users needs together. Make climate forecasts more socially useful. Stronger sense of responsibility for delivering timely and relevant tools. Accelerate activities to integrate science with the needs of decision makers. Integrate user needs and ensure that research results are provided in a form useful for users. Sources: Various USGCRP and NRC reports, 1997-2004

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CLIMAS: A Regional Integrated Science Assessment Purpose of NOAA RISAs Assess impacts of climate variability on human & natural systems Improve the ability of stake- holders to anticipate & respond to climate variability & change - lower risk (vulnerability) - increase opportunity - ensure sustainability Educate a new generation of interdisciplinary scientists www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS A Research Process Not a Research Product

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CLIMAS: A Regional Integrated Science Assessment www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS Purpose of NOAA RISAs Pilot for climate services Hydroclimatology research to address regional priorities driven by stakeholders hand-in-hand with social science research & sustained stakeholder interactions A Research Process Not a Research Product A Real Partnership with Users

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Four Types of Integration 1. Integration of decision makers, researchers & other stakeholders in developing research agenda One-on-One Interviews Town Hall Meetings Conferences and Workshops Product Evaluation

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Four Types of Integration 1. Integration of decision makers, researchers & other stakeholders in developing research agenda 2. Disciplinary integration of research team to address science questions Stakeholders Information needs, understanding, access Social Science Effective communication Natural Science Forecast skill, interpretation

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Four Types of Integration 1. Integration of decision makers, researchers & other stakeholders in developing research agenda 2. Disciplinary integration of research team to address science questions 3. End-to-end integration of climate issues Variability Impacts Response Options Global ocean/atmosphere/land Regional climate hydrology water resources and demand water management Multiples stresses, multiple pathways

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Four Types of Integration 1. Integration of decision makers, researchers & other stakeholders in developing research agenda 2. Disciplinary integration of research team to address science questions 3. End-to-end integration of climate issues 4. Integration of research and services Research Operations Decision Makers Public groups

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Issue: So Many Stakeholders! Continental Scale: Focus of much research Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist Different Scales (time & space) Different Issues Different Stakeholders

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Issue: Many Space & Time Scales

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Changed decisions & decision processes Transferability, Scalability (products and process) to enable systemic change Public support for climate research Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise Project Objectives Affect Metrics Structure of stakeholder interactions Research products Perceptions of climate science enterprise Research funding Evaluating Societally Relevant Research and Products

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Objective: Economic Efficiency Metrics: Cost/benefits. Return on Investment. Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Consultant-client relationship with high-value clients (e.g., hydropower). Research Products: Customized Decision Support Systems. System optimization rules. Perceptions: Science serving special interests. Increasing competitive imbalances. Research Funding: By clients through private sector.

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Objective: Agency Impact Metrics: Policy and regulatory impact. Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Work with agencies. Important role for policy analysts/scientists. Research Products: Traditional products. Refereed methodology and results. Hold up in court. Perceptions: Science serving special interests, agendas. Increasing regulatory burden. Research Funding: By managed sector, perhaps public.

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Objective: Societal Equity Metrics: Breadth/diversity of applicability, accessibility, usability. Sectoral market penetration. Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Engagement with diversity of stakeholders. Important role for social scientists. Potentially huge demand on researchers time. Research Products: Diverse. Non-traditional, but not dumbed down. Note: data