1

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for decision support

Roger S. Pulwarty

NOAA

Boulder CO 80305

CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP

2

• What/where are the critical issues and who is/are defining them?

• What are the processes?

• What are the applications?

• What are the outcomes?

3

Planning for climate risks?

There is strongevidencethat existing climaterisks are not beingadequately incorporatedinto decision-making, even with regard toweather extremes

(Source: MunichRe, Topics Geo Annual Review, Natural Catastrophes, 2005)

4

Conclusions, so far

• Degradation is often a long-term process with cumulative phases of acceleration and deceleration

• Rates of changes are important

• Processes involve multiple timescales(conjunction of several factors at unique points)

• Degradation must be placed within wider social and environmental dynamics (other phases of landscape transformation)

eg size of settlements and adequacy of social mechanisms to deal with changing circumstances

5

Three reasons for assessing climate change in the context of adaptation to extremes and variability:

(1) A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the role of surprise in shaping responses

(2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by crises, learning and redesign

(3) Opportunities exist to learn from organizations that cope with change and focus on responses and social networking such as disaster relief and research

……..BUT—long-term scenarios can also bring focus on changes in extremes…

(Orlove, 2004: Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003)

6

The Asipu A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley

2500-3000 BC

• Hazard identification

• Data collection and analysis

• Generation of alternatives

• Report creation

7

Integrated assessment

Utilization

Forecast generationProjections

Dissemination

8

Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system uncertainty and decision stakes(Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990)

Consultancy (Specific

applications&output)

AppliedSciences(Impacts)

>2 nd Order Contexts (Integrated Assessments

Decision-support)

Decision Stakes:

Problem solvingapproach System Uncertainty

Physical systems:and linkages Economics &Human Dimensions

Can/should probabilities be specified for this area?

9

Resources Vulnerability Capability

Physical/material

What hazards,skills, productive resources exist?

Social/Organizational

What are the relations and organizations among people?

Behavioral/Incentives

How does the community view its ability to create change?

Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix

10

Drought

11

12

Focusing event(s) and cumulative Impacts Response

DevelopmentPrevention

Mitigation

Preparedness

Recovery

13

14

Multiple competing valuesMultiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectivesMultiple, competing objectives

Ecosystemshealth

Hydropower

Recreation

Floodcontrol Agriculture

Consumptiveuse

15

Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology

• Conveyance of flood waters• Storage for irrigation (and power)• Predictable navigation opportunity• Enhanced recreational uses

Adaptation requirements• Sufficient water resources for experimentation• Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem components• Flexibility among stakeholders• Room for political negotiations

16

Where do science and policy speak to each other?

and, what do they talk about?

17

18

Communities

Industry

Environment

State

InternationalPressures

19

No, you’re biased

You’re biased Oh, you’re

biased

Everyone is

biased

except me

Are we exceeding design specs on this stand?

20

Lessons from the disaster research community

Technical range of choice• (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a

given point in time)

Practical range of choice• (culture, community, practice, communication)

No choice• (power, access/procedure, capacity)

21

Where do science, policy and practice, speak to each other?

and, what do they talk about?

Climate variability and change:

22

Q 3. Find x

4 cm

3 cm

x

23

Q 3. Find x

4 cm

3 cm

x

Here it is !

24

Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments:Objectives and Approaches

Characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes, and their social, economic, and ecological interaction, impacts and projections at appropriate scales of interest within a region

Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical climate-environment-society problems in a region and carry out research to bridge these gaps as needed

Assess regional and local resources, capacity , and decision-support dialogs needed in responding to environmental variability and change

Carry out research focused on realizing the benefits of integrated knowledge and forecasts in different contexts and provide an informed basis for place-based decision support and services

25

Approach to Integrated Research

First vertical assessment, then horizontal

1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty

2. Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities

3. Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made

4. Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.

26

• Climate simulations & scenarios

• Social trends• Demographics• Energy use• Land use

• Institutions• Policies• Laws

• Values• Politics

• Framing the question

• Synthesis tools• Data assimilation &

visualization• Complexity models• Scenario

development and testing

• Understanding methodologies

• Place-based

• Network design• Platforms• Appropriate mix of

observations• Quality assurance

and control

• Types of models• Scale

• Temporal• Spatial

• Performancemetrics

• Place-based and sector-based

• User oriented• Scenarios and

probabilistic outcomes

• Synthesis

• Distributed dissemination

• New technologies

• Interactive

• User friendly

• Flexible

• Dialog, not two monologues

ImprovedDecisionProcess

….viewed from Information chain

27

Usual stakeholder interaction– Concentrates on the incorporation of new knowledge or

experience into existing models, decision processes and practices

Needed– The most important learning involves values, norms, goals, and

the basic “framing” of issues in terms of the drivers and importance

– Innovative partnerships incl.research

28

Elements of adaptive management: Learning by doing

• Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty /with practitioners

• Directive and/or need for action• Implement management actions to address resource problems as

experiments• Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what

does not)• Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and

cultural requirements etc.• Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties

(transactions costs)

29

Pacific

Northwest

South EastConsortium

Western Water Assessment

CLIMAS

California

Applications

Project

New England

Carolinas

Hawaiian and PacificIslands

*

*

30

Pacific Northwest reservoir management,fisheries, drought,snowpack, climate change mitigation andadaptation

water policy, snow pack, droughtWestern Water

CaliforniaApplications

fire, health, drought, stream flow forecasts,reservoir management, climate change

water quality, drought

extreme events, climate services

CLIMAS agricultural and groundwater management,forecast validation, drought response

SE Consortiumagricultural crop modeling, extensiondevelopment, hydrology, fire, frost-freeze

New England air quality, health

Hawaii

Carolinas

*

*

* Recommended for funding

31

Western RCC Desert Research

Institute

RISA – Pacific Northwest

RISA – California

RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS

High Plains RCC University of Nebraska

Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey

InternationalResearch Institute

Northeast RCC Cornell University

Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division

National ClimaticData Center

Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural

Resources

RISA – Florida

Southern RCC Louisiana State

University

National CenterRegional Center

RISA’s

States ParticipatingIn Two Regions

RISA – Western Water

Climate Diagnostic Center

Pacific ENSOApplications

Center

RISA – NewHampshire

NWS RHQ

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

32

WSUAgriculture

U of IWater Markets/

Energy

OSU/USFS

ID Governor’s OfficeState LegislatureUSDOI - WesternRegional Office

Hydrology/Water Resources

Forests/ Forest hydrology

AquaticEcosystems

Coastal Activities

HumanHealth

OSUBattelle - Seattle

WDOEShorelands Prog.

PNNL

BLMNRCSFarmersIrrigation districts

US Forest ServiceNational Park ServiceWDNR

WDFWNMFSNPFMCPFMC

NWIFCCRITFCIPHCOR Dept. of Lands &

Development, CoastalManagement Prog.

Seattle PUDWDOE/Water Supp.Portland Water Bur.NPPCBPA

Seattle City LightTacoma P&LNOAA River FCUS Army CorpsSeattle City Council

WA Department of Health

ClimateDynamics

33

Integrated Decision Support Modeling Tool

Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment

Stresses:

Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)

Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use

Responses:

New storage

Conjunctive Use

Increased Reuse

Agricultural Efficiency

Conservation

Goal: Improve regional capabilities toadapt to climate-related impacts.

34

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Per

cent

of C

urre

nt P

opul

atio

nProjected Population Growth

NVAZ

NM

CO

CA

USA

UT

64 Million45 Million

35

Issue: So Many Stakeholders!

Continental Scale: Focus of modelers

Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist

Different Scales (time & space)Different IssuesDifferent Stakeholders

36

http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts

Six elements in our webtool:• Exploring Forecast Progression•Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials• Forecast Performance• Historical Context• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research

37

Historical Context for Forecasts/projections

Recent History | Possible Futures

Requested by Fire managers…Applicable to any climate variable

20032002

Neutral Non-ENSO sequences

2004

La Nina

38

39

Groundwater overdraft in response to drought in Arizona's urban areas 2025

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Phoenix Tucson Sierra Vista* Santa Cruz

Per

cen

t o

ver

dra

ft

Baseline

1-yr drought

5-yr drought

10-yr drought

64 Million

202545 Million

2000

Population

40

Wildfire Threat forecast

•The end product is a The end product is a monthly, monthly, county-by-county-by-countycounty forecast of the forecast of the KBDI.KBDI.

•Graphic shows the Graphic shows the probability of probability of at least 7 at least 7 daysdays in the month being in the month being above or below critical above or below critical thresholds.thresholds.

•Thresholds were Thresholds were determined with input determined with input from forestry and wildfire from forestry and wildfire experts.experts.

•Forecast was based on Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase.the Neutral ENSO phase.

41

How Good are Available Forecasts Projections?

• Natural• science

• Social science

• Stakeholder interaction

42

CDC-CIRES Western Water Assessment Mission:

To improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge

43

Colorado River Flow Departures from Average

Climatic InfluencesENSOPDO/VSouthwest MonsoonLand Surface Feedbacks Extreme Events

WET

DRY

Compact

Salton Sea

GCD

44

Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed flow1530-1990s

45

Timescales Indeterminate

Long-term

Decade

Annual

Seasonal

Daily-monthly

Hourly

Flows necessary to protect endangered species

Inter-basin allocations and those allocations among states

Upper Basin delivery obligations

Lake Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage

Peak heating and cooling months

Flood control operations, Kanab amber snail impacts

Western Area Power Administration’s power generation decisions

GlobalNationalRegionalTribal/StateHousehold-municipal-

county

46

Water Resources: Decision calendars

Hydropower Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Agriculture Production Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

47

Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep OctOct Nov DecAug Sep

Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows

Operational issuesOperational issues

Potential use of forecastsPotential use of forecasts

Legend:

Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations

Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions

Winter releases based on January/February snowpack observations

Planning ProcessPlanning Process

Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions

Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve

Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation

Peak Flow Augmentation releases

Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower

Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions

Reservoir Management Decision Calendar

Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows

Water Year Planning Next Water Year Planning

48

Regional Water Issues Activities

Event

horizon

Understand, Explain, Predict, Assess, Communicate, Evaluate

Climate Processes

Network

Short Term Extreme Events

Develop experimental forecasts, monitoring, and application products. Experimental attribution assessments of regional extremes.

Subseasonal variability, Arctic Outbreaks, Monsoon, floods, heat waves, tornados, hurricanes

Reclamation, Fish and Wildlife Service CBRFC, Office of Hydrology, CPC, HPC, Regional Councils, Wildfire Managers

Drought seasonal to multi- year

Develop drought forecasts, monitoring, paleoclimate reconstructions and application products. Assess social, environmental, and economic impacts.

Flash droughts, snowpack evolution, soil moisture evolution, El Niño and La Niña, multidecadal ocean variability

Western Governors Association (WGA), NIDIS, NWS, RFCs, NCDC, RCCs, NDMC, USDA, NRCS, USGS, NASA, Regional Councils, State and Municipal Agencies

49

Regional Water Issues Activities

Event

Horizon

Understand, Explain, Predict, Assess, Communicate, Evaluate

Climate Processes

Network

Decadal Climate Variability

Develop experimental monitoring, attribution, and application products. Assessments of regional trends and risks to inform adaptation strategies.

Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Short term influences, Regional Trends

Regional Councils, Wildfire Managers, NCAR, Regional Watershed Councils, Municipal Agencies (e.g., Denver)

Climate Change

Develop experimental attribution assessments of hemispheric to regional trends. Assess social, environmental, and economic risks (e.g., Colorado Compact).

Observed, current and evolving trends, Enhanced hydrologic cycle, High elevation change

CCSP, Reclamation, EPA, USGS, IPCC, NCAR, NASA, Regional Watershed Councils, Municipal Agencies

50

Key partnershipsFederal Level:• Bonneville Power

Administration

• NOAA Fisheries Service

• NOAA River Forecast Center

• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

• U.S. Congress

• USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service

• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

• U.S. Geologic Survey

State/Tribal Level:

• CA, OR, ID Depts. of Water Resources

• WA, OR, ID State Governor’s Offices

• WA, OR, ID State Legislatures

• WA Department of Ecology

• WA Department of Fish and Wildlife

• AK Department of Fish and Game

• Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission

• Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission

Local/Other:• Central Puget Sound

Water Suppliers' Forum

• City of Tualatin, OR

• King County, WA

• WA watershed planning units

• Portland Water Bureau

• Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

• Seattle City Light

• Seattle Public Utilities

• BC Hydro

• National Wildlife Federation

• Northwest Power and Conservation Council

• PNW news media

51

52

How Does RISA Support Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change?

Research

OutreachDecision-support

RISA Outreach:

Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community

Research:

Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change

Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities

Decision-support tools:

Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning

53

Strategic

• Mission focused, seeks understand natural and human processes identified as important to the solution of a specified problem

Applied

• Uses existing knowledge to identify approaches and develop prototype technologies and processes to solve problems of widespread importance

Adaptive

• Articulate problems at local and regional scales

• Identify appropriate approaches to solution

• Relevant prototype technologies/processes

• Fit these to the particular circumstances of specific groups

Research categories identified by participating groups

54

Robustness Strategies for Information:

• Knowledge and information

– Scientifically credible

– Socially robust

• Political legitimacy

• Practical utility

• Effectiveness

• To what extent are probabilistic estimates about the future climate impacts robust?

(given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO others)

55

• Raising awareness of the role of climate

Increasing capacity for response

• Innovative research partnerships

• Informing decsionmaking: Understanding context, communication and pratice

56

Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions: Beyond “two-way” communication

___________________________________________________________________________

Approach Assumptions and actions

Development and From the risk expert to the public--finite and

delivery of a risk message uni-directional

Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views

Assumes expert view has more validity for decision-making

Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous

Aimed at balancing the content of risk message

Assumes both views contribute to decision-making

Social processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk

of risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product

______________________________________________________________________

57

Is the research compatible with existing

decision models?

Is the research accessible to policy/decision maker?

Are policymakers receptive to the

problem and to research?

Is the research relevant for decisions?

Analysis of usefulness for policy/decision making arena

Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for decisions,usability,entry points, experience

Are the sources/providers of information credible

to the decision maker?

58

Water Resources: framesFactor Water Manager’s

PerspectiveResearcher’s Perspective

Identifying critical issue

Time frame

Spatial resolution

Goals

Basis for Decisions

Expectation

Product Characteristics

Frame

Nature of Use

59

Factor Water Manager’s Perspective Researcher’s Perspective

Identifying critical issue Based on experience External assessment

Time frame Immediate (operations)Long-term (infrastructure)

Scientifically defensibleFundable project

Spatial resolution Institutional boundaries or authorities

Scientifically defensible/funding

Goals Optimization of multiple conditions and minimize adverse impacts

Enhanced understanding, prediction, explanation

Basis for Decisions Procedure, judgment, training, Economics, Politics, risk reduction

Scientific methods, funding availability, disciplinary training

Expectation Save money and timeProtect the life and property

Understanding, prediction, continued improvement

Product Characteristics Simple but accurateContext is important

Peer-review publication and recognition

Frame Safety and well being, ProfitConsistency with institutional culture, policy, etc.

Physical (atmospheric, hydrologic, etc.) conditions as driversDependent on scientific discipline

Nature of Use Applied Conceptual

60

Managing Uncertainty:Where is the uncertainty? Where is the uncertainty?

-Problem Domain-Problem Domain

-science-science

-organizational-organizational

-community-community

-political-political

- adequate theory- adequate theory-multiple hypotheses-multiple hypotheses & congruent management & congruent management actions.actions.-tractability (complexity) -tractability (complexity) -confronting models w/data-confronting models w/data-independence/ rigor-independence/ rigor-novelty-novelty

61

Managing Uncertainty:

-Problem Domain-Problem Domain

-science-science

-organizational-organizational-community-community-political-political

- expressions of power- expressions of power- multiple equilibria- multiple equilibria

paths not takenpaths not taken- NONE are scale invariant - NONE are scale invariant - stability of institutions- stability of institutions

novelty of approachesnovelty of approaches- role of epistemic groups- role of epistemic groups- multiple discourses- multiple discourses- juggling domains- juggling domains

62

A Sea Change in Perceptions

1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a

conceptual framework for applying climate info

1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information

about climate variability and in CIG

Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information

2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant

threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning

2001/2: 50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work public & private

pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts

2003 to present day: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups

Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change…

63

What’s your conceptual model?

What is your mental model?

How does this affect your choice of problems and recommended solutions?

What “ought” to be done is easier to specify than to understand what is being done

64

Where do science and policy speak to each other?

65

Characteristics of successful conservation and resources-based agreements in the Western US

• Strong focusing events• Significant public interest • Personal attention of key leaders• Close interjurisdictional partnerships• Strong funding for research: collaboration

between research and management• Meaningful Stakeholder involvement

66

– Workshops and meetings (shared scenario construction; shared model building?)

– Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized events, e.g. hearings)

– One-on-one technical assistance

– Coordination with other ongoing projects

– Work with the local media

– Web site development and maintenance

– Graduate-level courses on climate impacts & adaptation

What else is needed? Research on the role of climate information in adaptive governance…

67

Adaptive governance Adaptive governance

•Integrates various types of knowledge and organizations•Recognizes redundancy and slack as buffers

-relies on open decision-making processes recognizing multiple interests, community-based initiatives, and integrative science in addition to traditional science

68

Local information system• Discrete set of information resources organized for

the collection, processing, maintenance, transmission, and dissemination of information in accordance with defined procedures to meet specific needs

Major information system Special management attention because of its

importance to an agency mission, its high development or maintenance costs or its significant role in the administration of agency programs, finance, property or other records

69

Hazard InformationPast incidence:Maps, factors

affecting occurrence

What is the expected degree of loss?

Who, what are vulnerable

Why?

Site and Feature CharacteristicsSpecific damage/loss estimate Physical suite characteristics,

structural strength, content exposure

Element of ConcernCritical facilities, natural resources,

agriculture, population, development (existing./proposed)

What are the hazards?What severity?

What return periods?

Formulation of desired risk

reduction strategy

Risk Assessment

HazardAssessment

VulnerabilityAssessment

Economic Analysis Of risk reduction

options

Identification of risk reduction options

Criticality: From hazards to vulnerability to risk

70

Implications for Regional Climate Services

• Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:

– Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications

– Producing very specific, mutually defined products

– Building trust with stakeholders over time

– Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation

71

Team design and evolution

What mix of disciplines, partnerships and institutions?

72

Adaptation experiences to inform governance (1)

(1) Clarification of goals at the human-environment interface

“while we sought consensus the fish disappeared”

(2) Distillation of lessons from comparative appraisals of current and past practices

“foresight ≠ hindsight”

(3) Construction of a solid cooperative foundation for research and management

73

(4) Assess how policies and practices have been diffused and become embedded in other localized or specialized policy processes

(5) Stimulate the innovation and field-testing of policy experiments for adaptation across climate timescales (not just a particular climate scenario): Need for innovative research partnerships

Adaptation experiences to inform governance (2)

74

• Integrate an understanding of local contexts and contending perspectives with an understanding of how new information becomes framed and socialized into agendas;

• Assess impediments and opportunities to the flow of information including issues of credibility, legitimacy, and acceptability;

75

Western RCC Desert Research

Institute

RISA – Pacific Northwest

RISA – California

RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS

High Plains RCC University of Nebraska

Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey

InternationalResearch Institute

Northeast RCC Cornell University

Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division

National ClimaticData Center

Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural

Resources

RISA – Florida

Southern RCC Louisiana State

University

National CenterRegional Center

RISA’s

States ParticipatingIn Two Regions

RISA – Western Water

Climate Diagnostic Center

Pacific ENSOApplications

Center

RISA – NewHampshire

NWS RHQ

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

76

C. Policy contexts and decision-making

processes

D. Dynamic dialogue between researchers (non-decisive) and practitioners (decisive) on problem-definition:

shared understanding of significance and value conflicts

B. Range of scientific knowledge frames:

predictive capabilities uncertainty, ignorance/

indeterminacy

Interactions:

Participatory Assessments:action-research orientation

A. Assessments:Situation

ParticipantsActivities

NeedsResources/Capacity

Constraints:

Time,$,

Rates of change

77

RISAs, universities, and labs

Integrating knowledge and products (CDC,

ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs)

Operational (RCCs, NCDC, CPC, WFOs, SCs,

other private sector)

Reg

ion

al O

vers

igh

t an

d E

valu

atio

n

OT

HE

R N

ON

-NO

AA

P

AR

TN

ER

S

new or enhanced regional products information delivery technology sustained & systematic communication and feedback

RESEARCH

&

DEVELOPMENT

&

IMPLEMENTATION

&

SERVICES

A Prototype Pathway for RegionalClimate Information Services

78

• Goal:Goal: To enable the Nation to move To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts.approach to droughts.

• “WGA believes NOAA should be designated as the federal lead for NIDIS. NOAA should take the initiative to convene and coordinate all of the relevant entities, including federal and non-federal partners, as well as scientists, water users and policy-makers to implement those aspects of NIDIS that can be accomplished under existing authorities and funding.”

National Integrated National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Information System

(NIDIS)(NIDIS)

www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf

“Creating a National Drought Early Warning System”

79Doing the wrong thing…more preciselyDoing the wrong thing…more precisely

80

Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly?

81

A pathetic track record for implementation of environmental assessment and adaptive

management:

Successful Modeling failure Implementation failureSuccessful Modeling failure Implementation failure

82

We can now build some really impressive looking models

Water management regime

Flow Turbidity Temperature

Benthic algae Riparian vegetation

DetritusAquatic insects Terrestrial insects

Exotic fishes Native fishes

Sparrows etc.

Cowbird

Water birds

Peregrine falcon

83

Early Warning (sub)Systems • MonitoringMonitoring and forecasting subsystem and forecasting subsystem

National, regional and local levelsNational, regional and local levels

• Risk assessment sub-systemRisk assessment sub-system Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact

scenariosscenarios

• Preparedness sub-systemPreparedness sub-system

Outline and inform actions required to reduce the loss andOutline and inform actions required to reduce the loss anddamage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What? damage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What? When?When?

• Communication and public awareness sub-systemCommunication and public awareness sub-systemCommunication/delivery of timely information on impending events, Communication/delivery of timely information on impending events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable groupsgroups

• Evaluation and feedback sub-systemEvaluation and feedback sub-system

Scale:Scale: Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs? Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs? What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are made? How can this process be improvedmade? How can this process be improved

84

National Integrated Drought Information System

Research PredictionMonitoring

ImpactMitigation

ProactivePlanning

ImprovedResponses

Customer defined measures of drought

Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels

Integrating Tools

85

Response•Choice•Adoption of practice

Adjustment process•Perception•evaluation

Hazard effects•Costs and losses•gains

Natural HazardDisaster

Natural systemVariation/change•Magnitude•Duration•frequency

Social system•Variation/change•Exposure

Modify societal characteristics

Modify biophysical characteristics

Emergency adjustments

86

Criteria for ŅKeyÓ Vu lnerability Vulnerable Sector or Activity

Magnitude Rates of Change

Persistence and reversibility

Likelihood and confidence

Potential for Adaptation

Distribution

Bounded ecosystems such as coastal, mountain and already stressed

State magnitudes of vulnerability for different magnitudes of change, especially thresholds, relative to temperature, precipitation or the other critical parameters that create the vulnerability

State any critical rates of change that affect vulnerability

Provide information on the likelihood that the vulnerable sector will be affected by an irreversible impact and whether it is likely to persist.

Overall confidence and likelihood, but state confidence also with any specific figures or points.

State capacity for adaptation. Is adaptive capacity sufficient to delay or prevent adverse impacts and at what cost.

Provide information on the distribution of impacts Š both physically and socially within countries (not in a simple developed/developing dichotomy).

87

EVENT PREPAREDNESS STATUSReturn period,DurationMagnitude,SeasonalityUncertainty

Self protectionIncome Distribution Generation & allocation(location, building Livelihood surplus

quality Opportunity

Social Protection Social power&controlHurricanes (Building regulations GENDER Debt crises

level of scientific Household Environmental degradationknowledge/use) Security,Nutrition

FloodDrought

RESILIENCE? CULTURE//STATEEarthquakes Strength of assets Income,Assets InstitutionalVolcanic Discrimination SupportActivity Recovery of - Regional

livelihood - LocalLandscape Impacts of previous

interventions Biases, Training

Disease HEALTH Social precaution/Infrastructure, Individual robustnessHousehold activities,Access to reliable potable water, treatment

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hazard Vulnerability Socio-economic National and Political Economy International Policy

D

I

S

A

S

T

E

R

Political ecology of disasters Pulwarty and Riebsame, 1997; Blaikie et al 1994 others