noaa's nws national performance measures fy 2010 – fy 2016 noaa's nws national...
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NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures FY 2010 – FY 2016 FY 2010 – FY 2016
Government Performance Requirements Government Performance Requirements ActAct (GPRA) Performance Measure(GPRA) Performance Measure
GoalsGoals
ActuaActual l GoalsGoals
20102010 20102010 20112011
20122012
20132013
20142014
20120155 20162016
Weather and Water GoalsWeather and Water Goals
Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%)(%) 7070 7272 7070 7272 7272 7272 7373 7373
Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%)(%) 7272 *74*74 7272 7171 7171 7171 7070 7070
Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min)(Min) 1212 1414 1212 1313 1313 1313 1414 1414
Flash Flood Warnings-Accuracy (%)Flash Flood Warnings-Accuracy (%) 7272 7979 7272 7474 7474 7474 7676 7676
Flash Flood Warnings-Lead Time (Min)Flash Flood Warnings-Lead Time (Min) 3838 7171 3838 4040 4040 4040 4242 4242
Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, RMS)RMS) 107107 8989 8787 8484 8181 7777 7474 7171
Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots)Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots) 1313 *15*15 1313 1212 1212 1212 1111 1111
Precipitation Forecast-Day-1 Threat Score Precipitation Forecast-Day-1 Threat Score (%)(%) 3030 3535 3030 3131 3232 3232 3333 3333
Winter Storm Warnings-Accuracy (%)Winter Storm Warnings-Accuracy (%) 9090 9090 9090 9090 9191 9191 9191 9292
Winter Storm Warnings-Lead Time Winter Storm Warnings-Lead Time (Hours)(Hours) 1515 2121 1515 1919 1919 2020 2020 2020
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
* Performance measures that are highlighted in red missed target goal for FY-10.
Government Performance Requirements Government Performance Requirements ActAct (GPRA) Performance Measure (GPRA) Performance Measure
GoalsGoals
ActuaActua
l l GoalsGoals
20102010 20102010 20112011
20122012
20132013
20142014
20152015
20162016
Climate GoalsClimate Goals
U.S. Seasonal Temperature – SkillU.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill 2424 *18*18 2121 **** **** **** **** ****
Commerce and Transportation GoalsCommerce and Transportation Goals
Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) – Visibility) – Accuracy (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft)Accuracy (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft)
6565 6565 6565 6666 6868 6969 6969 7070
Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) –Visibility) – False Alarm Rate (%) (less than 3 False Alarm Rate (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft)mi/1000 ft)
4242 3636 4141 4141 3939 3939 3838 3838
Marine Wind Speed – Percentage of Marine Wind Speed – Percentage of AccurateAccurate ForecastsForecasts
6969 7474 6969 7070 7070 7070 7171 7171
Marine Wave Height – Percentage of Marine Wave Height – Percentage of AccurateAccurate ForecastsForecasts
7474 7676 7474 7575 7575 7575 7676 7676
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
*Performance measures that are highlighted in red missed target goal for FY-10.
NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures FY 2010 – FY 2016 FY 2010 – FY 2016
**U.S. Seasonal Temperature will be an OAR GPRA performance measure only, starting in FY-12.
Tornado WarningsTornado Warnings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Years
Percentages
0
5
10
15
20
Minutes*Tornado Warnings - Accuracy (%)
*Tornado Warnings - Accuracy Goals (%)
*Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate (%)*Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate Goals (%)**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%)
**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy Goals (%)**Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%)
**Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate Goals (%)*Tornado Warnings - Lead Time (Min)*Tornado Warnings - Lead Time Goals (Min)
**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min)**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time Goals (Min)
* 1996 - 2007 Tornado Warnings used County-Based Methodology. ** 2008 - Present Tornado Warnings use new Storm-Based Methodology.
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
Flash Flood WarningsFlash Flood Warnings
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Percentages
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Minutes
* Accuracy Actual (Y1)* Accuracy Goals (Y1)** Storm Based Accuracy Actual (Y1)** Storm Based Accuracy Goals (Y1)** Storm Based Lead Time Actual (Y2)** Storm Based Lead Time Goals (Y2)* Lead Time Actual (Y2)* Lead Time Goals (Y2)
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
* 1996 - 2009 Flash Flood Warnings used County-Based Methodology. ** 2010 - Present Flash Flood Warnings use new Storm-Based
Methodology.
Hurricane Track Forecasts Hurricane Track Forecasts (48Hrs Forecast Error, RMS)(48Hrs Forecast Error, RMS)
0
50
100
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Na
uti
ca
l M
ile
s
Nautical Miles Actual
Nautical Miles Goals
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Hu
rric
an
e I
nte
ns
ity
Err
or
(Kn
ots
)
Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)Actual
Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)Goals
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
Precipitation ForecastPrecipitation Forecast (Day-1 Threat Score)(Day-1 Threat Score)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Th
rea
t S
co
re
Day-1 Threat Score Actual
Day-1 Threat Score Goals
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
Winter Storm WarningsWinter Storm Warnings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Accuracy
0
10
20
30
Hours
Accuracy Actual (Y1)
Accuracy Goals (Y1)
Lead Time Actual (Hours) (Y2)
Lead Time (Hours) Goals (Y2)
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
U.S. Seasonal Temperature - SkillU.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Ski
ll
** Skill Actual
** Skill Goals
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
**U.S. Seasonal Temperature will be an OAR GPRA Performance Measure only, starting in FY-12.
Aviation ForecastsAviation Forecasts (Ceiling/Visibility Forecast)(Ceiling/Visibility Forecast)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
s
1 mi/500 ft or less - Accuracy1 mi/500 ft or less - Accuracy (Goals)1 mi/500 ft or less - False Alarm Rate1 mi/500 ft or less - False Alarm Rate (Goals)*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - Accuracy*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - Accuracy (Goals)*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - False Alarm Rate*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - False Alarm Rate (Goals)
* Modified performance measures to be more meaningful and relevant to the aviation community and the forecaster.
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
Marine Wind Speed ForecastsMarine Wind Speed Forecasts
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
s
Accuracy Actual
Accuracy Goals
*% of Accurate Forecasts - Actual
*% of Accurate Forecasts - Goals
* New performance measures to best represent forecast accuracy.
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
Marine Wave Height ForecastsMarine Wave Height Forecasts
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
s
Accuracy - Actual
Accuracy - Goals
*% of Accurate Forecasts - Actual
*% of Accurate Forecasts - Goals
* New performance measures to best represent forecast accuracy.
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”