jeffrey boyne, noaa/nws wfo la crosse, wi · jeffrey boyne, noaa/nws wfo la crosse, wi . wednesday,...

Jeffrey Boyne, NOAA/NWS WFO La Crosse, WI

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

NOAA's 16th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW)

Trends: Warmer Earlier Spring in the Upper Midwest Climate at Glance

Trends: Warmer Earlier Spring in the Upper Midwest Climate at Glance

8 out of 25 warmest March-April have occurred this century.

3 out of 25 coldest March-April have occurred this century.

Accumulation of Growing Degree Days Based on 42°F

for La Crosse, WI

0

100

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300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1-Ap

r

3-Ap

r

5-Ap

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7-Ap

r

9-Ap

r

11-A

pr

13-A

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15-A

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19-A

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win

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Day

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1872-2018 Avg 2010-18 2000-09 1990-99 1980-89 1970-79 1960-69

Critical Temperatures for Apple Tree Frost Damage

Bud Loss Silver Tip Green Tip Half-Inch Green

10% 15°F 18°F 23°F

90% 2°F 10°F 15°F

Degree Days (DD) Base 42 (McIntosh)

90 127 205

References: 1) Michigan Fruit Management Guide 2015 2) Critical Temperatures for Frost Damage on Fruit Trees

https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1643&context=extension_curall


Bud Loss Tight Cluster First Pink (Pink) Full Pink (Open Cluster)

10% 27°F 28°F 28°F

90% 21°F 24°F 25°F


242 284




Bud Loss First Bloom (King Bloom) Full Bloom & Post Bloom Petal Fall

10% 28°F 28°F

90% 25°F 25°F


395 422 511




for La Crosse, WI

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1-Ap

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1872-2018 Avg 2010-18 2000-09 1990-99 1980-89 1970-79 1960-69

Tight Cluster (242 GDD)

King Bloom (390 GDD)

Petal Fall (511 GDD)

Apple bud & blossoms are developing nearly a week earlier than the long-term average


for La Crosse, WI

0

100

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900

1-Ap

r

3-Ap

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5-Ap

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7-Ap

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9-Ap

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11-A

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13-A

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15-A

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17-A

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19-A

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21-A

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23-A

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25-A

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1-M

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5-M

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Axis Title

1872-2018 Avg 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

King Bloom (390 GDD)

Petal Fall (511 GDD)

Tight Cluster (242 GDD)

2011

2015

2014

March 2012 – Record Warmth

State Ranks

Warmest March in 31 states

March 2012 Avg. Temp

1901-2000 Mean Anomaly

Illinois 55.5°F 39.8°F +15.7°F

Indiana 55.0°F 39.5°F +15.5°F

Iowa 51.6°F 34.6°F +17.0°F

Michigan 44.7°F 29.0°F +15.7°F

Minnesota 41.8°F 25.3°F +16.5°F

North Dakota 40.6°F 24.8°F +15.8°F

South Dakota 47.0°F 30.8°F +16.2°F

Wisconsin 45.6°F 28.3°F +17.3°F

15 to 17°F Above Normal

Contiguous U.S. 50.4°F ( +8.9°F - Warmest)

Previous Record 1910 (49.4°F) Source: NCEI’s Climate at a Glance

Growing Degree Days (42°F) March 2012

355 350 301

259 294

158

426

355 336

300

278 174

488

356

408

479 419

338

524

325

612

464

478

195

221

128

315 262

128

120 90 Silver Tip

127 Green Tip

205 ½” Green 242 Tight Cluster 284 Full Pink

395 First (King) Bloom 422 Full (Post) Bloom 422 Petal Fall

Apple Bud Development

April 2012 – A Return to Reality

State Ranks

April 2012 Avg. Temp

1901-2000 Mean Anomaly

Illinois 54.6°F 51.5°F +3.1°F

Indiana 52.9°F 50.6°F +2.3°F

Iowa 52.4°F 48.1°F +4.3°F

Michigan 43.9°F 41.9°F +2.0°F

Minnesota 45.5°F 41.3°F +4.2°F



Wisconsin 45.1°F 42.6°F +2.5°F

Source: NCEI’s Climate at a Glance

Contiguous U.S. 54.7°F ( +3.6°F – 4th Warmest)

April 2012 – A Return to Reality

March 2012 Avg. Temp

April 2012 Avg. Temp Difference

Illinois 55.5°F 54.6°F -0.9°F

Indiana 55.0°F 52.9°F -2.1°F

Iowa 51.6°F 52.4°F +0.8°F

Michigan 44.7°F 43.9°F -0.8°F

Minnesota 41.8°F 45.5°F +3.7°F



Wisconsin 45.6°F 45.1°F -0.5°F

March 2012

April 2012

28

81

45 56

62

39

137

50 56 51

85 75

47

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160

# of

Fre

eze

War

ning

s NWS Central Region Spring Freeze Warnings by Year

2012 NWS Central Region (CR) Frost/Freeze Services

Number of Spring Freeze Warnings by NWS Central Region

2012 NWS Central Region (CR) Frost/Freeze Services

• 27 of the 38 NWS CR offices issued at least 1 freeze warning during the Spring of 2018

Spring 2012 Freeze Warnings

Spring 2012 Freeze Warnings

March 26, 2012 April 5-7, 2012 April 10-12, 2012

April 21, 2012 April 23, 2012 April 26-29, 2012

1. Apples on the Avenue – Nashua, IA 2. Apple Ridge Orchard – Mazeppa, MN 3. Belaire Winery – St. Ansgar, IA 4. Cain’s Orchard – Hixton, WI 5. East View Orchard – Fredericksburg, IA 6. Ferguson’s Morningside Orchards –

Galesville, WI 7. Maple Ridge Orchard – Cashton, WI 8. NWS La Crosse 9. Pepin Heights – Lake City, MN 10. Shefelbein Orchard – Holmen, WI 11. Shihata Orchard – Prairie du Chien, WI 12. Star Valley Orchards LLC – Warrens, WI 13. Starry Ridge Orchard – Gays Mills, WI 14. Sunset Orchard – Richland Center, WI

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 8

9

10

11

12

13 14

NWS La Crosse Apple Orchard Network

Minnesota

Iowa

Wisconsin

NWS La Crosse Apple Orchard Network

Illinois

VIP web page link: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/VIP/index.html Frost/Freeze Guidance page link: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/VIP/indexFFG.html

Freeze Mitigation: Planting Different Apple Varieties

Early Season (Mid to Late August)

Mid-Season (September)

Late Season (October)

Beacon Mid- to late

August

Centennial Crabapple

Mid- to late August

State Fair Mid- to late

August

Sweet Tango® Mid- to late

August

Zestar® Late August

to Early September

Chestnut Crabapple Early September

Red Baron Mid-September

Sweet Sixteen Mid- to Late September

Honeycrisp Late September

Honeygold Late September

Haralson Late September to early October

Frostbite™ Late September to early October

Regent Early to

Mid October

Snow Sweet®

Mid-October

Fireside/ Connell

Red Mid-October

Keepsake Mid-October

Prairie Spy

Late-October

Red Delicious

Late September to Early October

McIntosh Early to Mid-September

Ginger Gold

Early to Mid-September

Jonathan Early to

Mid October

Gala Mid-September to Early October

Denotes apple varieties developed by the University of Minnesota

One of the more common freeze mitigation in the Coulee Region is planting apple trees at various elevation levels.

Freeze Mitigation: Planting at Varying Elevations

Freeze Mitigation: Over-Tree Sprinkler Systems

• Can provide the highest level of protection. • The key to using water is to continually use it to form clear ice.

Clear ice means that an endothermic reaction is taking place and the warmth of the plant is being trapped inside it.

• If the water stops spraying on the clear ice, it goes from being endothermic to exothermic (ice will appear cloudy), and the heat loss and ice will damage the fruit.

• Water-saving methods do not work. Some growers have attempted to spread overhead water applications by wide spacing of sprinkler heads, cycling of water applications on and off, or misting techniques to reduce the total water supply needs across a block. However, these techniques do not apply adequate water directly to the plant canopy to account for evaporation, and these systems are not recommended because of the high level of risk.

Clear ice good! Cloudy ice bad!

Freeze Mitigation: Under-Tree Sprinkler Systems

• Success is influenced by how strong the temperature inversion is and where it is located in the air column, the amount and temperature of the water applied, the volume of air flow through the orchard, the release of latent heat from the freezing of the applied water and the radiant heat from the soil.

• The air flowing through the orchard can be affected by fans and other measures and can actually rob heat from the water (evaporative cooling) and trees.

• The combination of over- and under-tree systems work very well with each other as under-tree sprinklers are less likely to have massive heat losses due to air movement.

• Originally spawned from airplane propellers in the 1960s — can blow your hat off 150 feet away.

• A single fan can keep frost off trees in a 10-acre circle. • Buying & installing a new one can cost as much as $35,000. • Used ones are harder to come by but can cut the price in half. • Gasoline-powered fans (most run on propane) each cost $60

to $70 an hour to run. • A fan that saves 10 acres of fruit can result in $25,000 at

harvest.

Freeze Mitigation: Frost Fans

• The rotors pull the air down from aloft. • The use of helicopters is a last resort kind of measure. • The cost is extremely prohibitive and there are many safety

and noise factors to take into account. • They can cover a large area, up to 40 acres per helicopter,

but the cost can quickly reach astronomical levels for a single use.

• Renting a helicopter can run an average of $1,600 per hour.

Freeze Mitigation: Helicopters

• Heat guns, small gas-powered heaters or even the burning of organic materials such as wood or hay have been used for some time with varied success.

• However, it is one of the least effective frost prevention methods. This is because heat rises, and heaters can’t cover a large area.

• It is more efficient to use many smaller heaters instead of large, central heat sources. It takes anywhere from 40 to 60 heaters per acre to survive a frost event.

Freeze Mitigation: Heaters

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