norfolk southern - short line marketing meeting · 2020-06-22 · ns volume 2009 vs. 2001 ag 9%...
TRANSCRIPT
9th Annual Norfolk Southern
Short Line Marketing MeetingJuly 12, 2010
Donald W. Seale
Executive Vice President
and Chief Marketing Officer
Economic Overview(AKA)
•Hopes
•Wishes
•Aspirations
•Guesses
The ISM index indicates the economy is still expanding, but at a more moderate pace than recent months
• Production indicates expansion – showing increases in plastics, printing, computers, and chemicals
• New Orders and Supplier Deliveries were down this month, but they are still in expansion mode
• Prices Paid fell in June – with metals and plastics showing price increases
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Auto production is forecasted to increase for year, despite recent downturn
--
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011
8,558,226 11,741,232 12,977,798
+37% +11%
Source: Wards Auto Forecast
12,922,326
Steel demand has been increasing as the world has been recovering from the recession
1,4
68
1,5
25
1,5
64
1,5
87
1,5
95
1,6
05
1,6
45
1,6
60
1,6
68
1,6
83
1,7
15
1,7
20
1,7
34
1,7
12
1,7
31
1,7
55
1,7
64
1,7
54
1,7
76
1,7
97
1,7
87
1,7
66
1,7
85
1,8
03
1,8
08
1,7
63
1,7
52 61
.5 63
.9
64
.7
65
.6
66
.9
67
.3
68 68
.6
69
69
.2 70
.9
71
.1
71
.7
70
.8
71
.6
72
.6
72
.9
72
.5
73
.4
74
.3
73
.9
73 73
.8
74
.6
74
.8
72
.9
72
.4
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
1/2
/2010
1/1
6/2
010
1/3
0/2
010
2/1
3/2
010
2/2
7/2
010
3/1
3/2
010
3/2
7/2
010
4/1
0/2
010
4/2
4/2
010
5/8
/2010
5/2
2/2
010
6/5
/2010
6/1
9/2
010
7/3
/2010
7/1
7/2
010
7/3
1/2
010
8/1
4/2
010
8/2
8/2
010
9/1
1/2
010
9/2
5/2
010
10/9
/2010
10/2
3/2
010
11/6
/2010
11/2
0/2
010
12/4
/2010
12/1
8/2
010
Weekly U.S. Domestic Raw Steel Production
2008 2009 2010 2010 Capacity
) Tons000(
Source: Global Insight, American Iron and Steel Institute
) Tons000(
IHS Global Insight 2010 forecast as of May 10: 89.9 M Tons
Adjusted YTD Production thru 7/3/2010: 44.87 M tons
YTD Production\Consumption Rate : 70.6%, up 64.5% vs. Last Year
Capacity%
Housing starts plunge in wake of expiration of homebuyers’ tax credit
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008
2009
2010
Source: Census.gov
Employment data continues to be discouraging
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Tho
usa
nd
s
Pe
rce
nt
Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Source: BLS
Key indicators indicate second-half moderation, as seen in the GDP forecasts
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
YOY
% C
han
ge
Perc
ent
GD
P
Real GDP Y-O-Y % Change
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Wells Fargo Economic Forecast
Rail volumes have outpaced truck tonnage in the economic recovery
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
YOY
% C
han
ge
Truck tonnage Rail carloadings + intermodal units NS Volume
Source: ATA MTTR and AAR Weekly Marketshare
NS
Norfolk Southern Carload Percentage Changes for Second Quarter and Year-to-Date 2010
17%
10%
6%
17%
16%
26%
32%
15%
13%
15%
19%
19%
20%
32%
50%
22%
Agriculture
Paper & Forest
Coal
Automotive
Intermodal
Chemicals
Metals & Construction
Total Carloads
Second Quarter Year-to-Date Source NS Accrual
2010 Year-Over-Year Volume Changes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Year-to-Date
• Merchandise +21%
• Intermodal +16%
• Coal + 6%
• Total NS +15%
Source: Carload Data from June 2010 Accounting Accrual
Merchandise VolumeFirst Quarter 2007 – Second Quarter 2010
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
1Q 2010
2Q 2010
Merchandise Carloads
+27%
2010 Year-Over-Year Volume Changes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Year-to-Date
• Merchandise +21%
• Intermodal +16%
• Coal + 6%
• Total NS +15%
Source: Carload Data from June 2010 Accounting Accrual
NS Volume 2009 vs. 2001
Ag9% Metcon
8%
Paper5%
Chem6%
Auto5%Imdl
43%
Coal24%
2009
Ag8%
Metcon11%
Paper7%
Chem7%
Auto9%
Imdl32%
Coal26%
2001
Total Volume – 6,624,966 UnitsTotal Volume – 5,957,257 Units
Outlook – Business Portfolio
• Manufacturing recovery & project growthChemicals
• Build out of ethanol networkAgriculture
• Truckload conversionsDomestic Intermodal
• Improving imports/exportsInternational Intermodal &
Export Coal
• Recovery in global steel productionDomestic Met Coal & Steel
• Falling stockpiles and increased electricity generation
Utility Coal
• Impact of Ford vehicle network redesignAutomotive
• Uncertainty in housing, but improving paper markets
Forest Products
Outlook Summary
Gradual growth in core markets
Strong project growth and new business
Continued pricing improvement
Healthy capital budget supports service & growth
1Q 2009 – 2Q 2010 Units
1,455,5671,412,342
1,522,2151,567,133 1,582,861
1,719,809
1Q2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
1Q 2010
2Q 2010
Source: NS Accounting
Capital Expenditures ($ Millions)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 budget
2010 Capital Improvement BudgetReplacement/Core vs. Growth/Productivity
75%
25%
Replacement/Core Growth/Productivity
Total Spending = $1.442 billion
2010 Capital Improvement Budget($ Millions)
$706
$184
$140
$110
$81
$221
Roadway
Facilities/Terminals
Technology
Infrastructure
Rolling Stock
Other Projects
Total Spending = $1.442 billion
Our Short Line Partners
U.S. Short Line route miles have seen continued growth since Staggers
• Miles have grown from approximately 8,800 to over 51,584 in
2009
– Growth of more than 486%
– Account for nearly 30% of the nation’s total rail mileage
• 172 Short Lines created (31% increase)
– Currently 572 short lines in 49 states
• Short Lines employ nearly 20,000 people
• Serve over 13,000 facilities
– Haul over 14 million carloads per year
– Routes are typically 500 miles or less
• NS connects with 258 Short LinesSource: ASLRRA
Over 300 Short Line Railroads have more than one Class I connection
239
164
5837
74
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5+
Nu
mb
er
of
Sho
rtlin
es
Number of Class I Connections
Source: ASLRRA
Short Lines pick up and deliver one out of every four rail cars moving on the national rail network
Rail Industry Carloads 2008 - 2009
Class I’s – Short Line Traffic Only
2008 2009 Variance
BNSF 1,247,000 1,060,000 -15.0%
CN 518,783 406,163 -21.7%
CSX 955,325 800,391 -16.2%
KCS 202,682 147,468 -27.2%
NS 983,959 800,292 -18.7%
UP 986,166 795,133 -19.4%
Source: ASLRRA
Norfolk Southern Short Line Carloadings are up 25% YTD in 2010
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Y-T-D 2010
2010 goal is an increase of 54,670 carloads (6.3% increase) to a total of 866,379 carloads
Source: NS Short Line Department
Short Line Successes
• BPRR, RJCP – Export coal
• INRD – Utility coal
• AVR , BPRR, RBMN, LRWY, LVRR, OHRY, WCOR, WSOR,
WW – Marcellus Shale
• GFRR, RJCP – Corn/Ethanol
• ACW, FEC, ESPN, LS, LVRR, MNBR, NPB, WE – Ethanol
• CUOH, NYA, NJRC – Municipal Solid Waste
• BPRR, LRWY, NBER, RBMN, RSR, VTR, WNYP, YRC – Salt
Marketing Agenda with Short Lines
• Growth opportunities in key markets
– Emphasis on projects
• Continued emphasis on Industrial Development
• Realize the value of our product
• Market reach multiplier
• WORK TOGETHER AS A TEAM
THANK YOU