norges bank 1 executive board meeting 16 march 2006
TRANSCRIPT
Norges Bank
1
Executive Board meeting16 March 2006
Norges Bank
2
Growth projections GDP growth. Per cent
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Projections IR 3/05 Projections IR 1/06
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Projections IR 3/05 Projections IR 1/06
Source: Norges Bank
2006 2007
Norges Bank
3
CPI/HICP core1)
12-month change. January 2002 – January 2006
-2
0
2
4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-2
0
2
4
US
Japan
Euro area
UK
Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat
1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food Euro area and UK: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Sweden;: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Sweden
Norges Bank
4
Actual and expected key rates1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
US
Euro area
14 March 2006
24 January 2006
Sweden
UK
1)Not adjusted for credit risk
Norges Bank
5
Yields on 10-year government bonds. 2 January 2004 –14 March 2006
0
2
4
6
8
2004 2005 2006
0
2
4
6
8
Germany
US
Japan
Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin
Norway
Norges Bank
6
Developments on stock markets internationally 2 January 2002 = 100. 2. January 2002 –14 March 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250Wilshire 5000, USAFTSE, UKDAX, GermanyTopic, JapanOslo Stock Exchange, all-share
Source: EcoWin
Norges Bank
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 –14 March 2006
14 March 2006
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
27 October IR 3/05
Norges Bank
8
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2005 2006
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude. 3 January 2004 –14 March 2006
Delivery in 6 years
Delivery in 1 month
Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX
Norges Bank
9
US commercial crude oil stocksIn million barrels
250
270
290
310
330
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
250
270
290
310
330
350Highest and lowest values 2000-2004
2004
2005
2006
Source: EIA
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Strategic reserves
Full capacity
Norges Bank
10
Natural gas pricesUSD per 1000 Sm3. Monthly and quarterly figures.
January 2003 – February 2006
0
200
400
600
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
200
400
600
Sources: EcoWin, ICE, NYMEX, Statistics Norway, Statoil, Norsk Hydro and Norges Bank
Norwegian export price
USA
UK
Average Statoil and
Hydro
Norges Bank
11
3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1)
January 2002 – December 2008
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
I-442), (right-hand scale)
Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale)
14 March 200624 January 2006
27 October 2005
1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate2)The last observation is the average for 1 - 15 March 2006.
Norges Bank
12
CPI-ATE 1)
Total and by supplier sector2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 3/05. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 - February 2006
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2004 2005 2006
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
1)A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. 2) Norges Bank's calculations
Norges Bank
13
Indicators of underlying inflation12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – February 2006
-2
0
2
4
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-2
0
2
4
6
Source: Statistics Norway
Weighted median
CPI-ATE1)
Trimmed mean
1)A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.
CPI
Norges Bank
14
Number of unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes
In thousands. Seasonally adjusted
50
75
100
125
150
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
50
75
100
125
150
LFS unemployment
Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes
Registered unemployed
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Norges Bank
15
Annual wage growth Per cent. 1996 – 2005
0
2
4
6
8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
2
4
6
8
Source: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements
Commercial and savings banksManufacturing white
collar workers
Construction
Manufacturing employees
Hotel and restaurant
Norges Bank
16
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Total
Source: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank
Household trend indicator Unadjusted figures. 99 Q1 – 06 Q1
Own financial situation
Norwegian economy
Norges Bank
17
House prices Percentage change on same month previous year.
January 1998 – February 2006
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)
Norges Bank
18
Housing startsArea in 1000 m². Seasonally adjusted and trend.
January 2000 – January 2006
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
150
200
250
300
350
400
Source: Statistics Norway
Seasonally adjusted
Trend
Norges Bank
19
Commercial building startsArea in 1000 m². January 2001 – December 2005
100
200
300
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
100
200
300
400
Source: Statistics Norway
Seasonally adjusted
3-month moving average
Norges Bank
20
Credit growthTotal debt mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2).
12-month growth. Per cent
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Source: Norges Bank
Households (C2)
Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3)
Total debt mainland Norway (C3)
Norges Bank
21
Capacity utilisationShare of Norges Bank's regional network reporting that they have some or
considerable problems in accommodating an increase in demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Manufac-turing Construction Retail trade Services
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-05 Sep-05 Jan-06
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate1)
Per cent. 06 Q1 – 09 Q4
1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate was reduced by a credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 27 Feb – 10 Mar 06.
Source: Norges Bank
Baseline scenario
Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate
Norges Bank
23
Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 1/06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
70
80
90
100
110
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
70
80
90
100
110
0
1
2
3
4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1
2
3
4
Import-weighted exchange rate
CPI-ATE Output gap
Sight deposit rate
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-2
-1
0
1
2
3