north montney: scale, growth, value€¦ · building momentum with scale exiting 2017 corporate...
TRANSCRIPT
Corporate PresentationSeptember 2017
2
North Montney: Scale, Growth, Value
1. EUR 9.0 Bcf, US$50/bbl WTI, C$1.25/US$ FX, $0.30/GJ Station 2 differential, $5 MM DCET2. 312 net DSUs where one DSU = 700 acres 3. $800 MM drawn, $50 MM undrawn at Jun 30, 20174. Includes a $50 MM accordion for additional syndicate participation; $13 MM drawn at Jun 30, 20175. US dollar denominated, matures Jan 2024, 9% coupon
Material Scalable Position
• 341 net sections of Montney rights2
• 71 Hz wells drilled by YE 2017• Inventory of over 2,500 Hz locations
Strong Balance Sheet
Growth Supported by Egress
• Development plan achieves 100,000 boe/d in 5 years• Gas egress commitments growing to >390 MMcf/d• Contracts held on three major pipeline systems
High QualityAsset
• Half-cycle IRR of 75% at $2.50/GJ AECO1
• Average 9.2 Bcf EUR last 36 Hz Upper Montney wells • Recent well costs $4.2 - 4.8 MM D&C• Liquids yield of 30-50 bbl/MMcf
• $850 MM equity raised to date3 (Azimuth Capital Management, CPPIB & Warburg Pincus)
• $250 MM bank line4; US$100 MM term debt5
Infrastructure Advantage
• Owned & operated infrastructure• Operating cost <$2.50/boe through operated gas plant• Flexible pace of development
FT ST JOHN
EDMONTON
MONTNEY
BRITISH COLUMBIA
ALBERTA
10 km
Liquids-Rich Montney 218,000 net acres
100% working interest
3
Building Momentum with Scale Exiting 2017
Corporate production
• Dec 2016: 16,650 boe/d (16% liquids)
• H1 2017: 14,800 boe/d (16% liquids)
• Q4 2017 budget: 24,000 – 26,000 boe/d (17% liquids)
2017 Capital program
• $180 MM (incl. $92 MM infrastructure)
• 19 Hz wells drilled
• North Aitken Creek plant expansion to 110 MMcf/d
2016 YE reserves - independent evaluation1
• 1P = 171 MMboe (NPV10 $898 MM)
• 2P = 478 MMboe (NPV10 $2,125 MM)
• FD&A (incl. FDC)2:
• PDP: $5.86/boe
• 1P: $7.63/boe
• 2P: $5.78/boe
1. Evaluated by GLJ Petroleum Consultants2. Capital costs include the cost of the North Aitken Creek Gas Plant & land & changes
in Future Development Capital (FDC)
-
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Avg
. Dai
ly P
rod
uct
ion
(b
oe
/d)
Development
Production Growth
Delineation
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Re
serv
es (
MM
bo
e)
PDP PDNP + PUD Probable
Reserve Growth
Expansion of owned infrastructure
4
Robust Economics: Low Cost, Liquids-Rich, Hot Gas
1. Inputs provided in the Appendix2. Black Swan chokes wells during initial production for operational reasons, no material impact on cumulative 365 day production3. Netback over the first year, assumes Station 2 delivery4. At $2.50/GJ AECO, US$50/bbl WTI, C$1.25/US$ FX and -$0.30/GJ Station 2 diff; liquids yield is 20 bbl C5+ and 16 bbl C3/C4
9.0 Bcf Wells Breakeven:
US$50/bbl WTI: ~$0.85/GJ AECO
Assumptions
D&C Cost ($MM, excl. $0.4 MM tie-in) $4.6
EUR (Bcf) 9.0
IP30 - Gas (MMcf/d, raw)2 7.0
IP30 - Total (boe/d) 1,300
Heat Content (MMBtu/mcf) 1,150
Liquids Yield (bbl/MMcf) 36
Royalty Drilling Credit ($ MM) $1.05
Opex & Transport ($/boe) $4.30
Revenue Enhanced by LiquidsHalf-cycle Revenue Mix at 36 bbl/MMcf4
9 Bcf Well Economic Outcome: $2.50/GJ & US$50/bbl
B-tax NPV ($MM) $7.1
B-tax IRR 75%
PI Ratio (NPV10) 1.4x
Netback ($/boe)3 $14.90
F&D ($/boe) $2.95
Recycle Ratio 4.3x
Breakeven (fixed WTI) $0.85/GJ
Payout (months) 15
Robust economics at $2.00/GJ AECO
9 Bcf type curve supported by last 36 Upper Montney Hz wells 64%
30%
6%
Gas
C5+
C3/C4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
$2.00/GJ AECO$40/bbl WTI
$2.50/GJ AECO$50/bbl WTI
$3.00/GJ AECO$60/bbl WTI
IRR
Black Swan Montney Half-Cycle Economics1
7.5 Bcf (8.6 Bcfe)
9.0 Bcf (10.4 Bcfe)
10.5 Bcf (12.0 Bcfe)
5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
b-B
79
-G
a-A
11
-A
a-B
20
-H
b-A
22
-C
a-9
2-C
c-4
5-D
a-C
20
-H
b-1
7-H
c-B
7-H
c-A
7-H
c-7
-H
b-1
9-E
b-5
4-D
b-A
54
-D
a-5
4-D
a-A
54
-D
a-B
54
-D
a-C
54
-D
b-B
54
-D
a-D
54
-D
b-9
5-E
b-C
22
-C
b-D
22
-C
b-E
22
-C
b-F
22
-C
b-G
22
-C
a-A
92
-C
a-B
92
-C
a-C
92
-C
a-D
92
-C
a-E9
2-C
a-A
20
-E
b-B
19
-E
c-2
-C
c-A
2-C
c-B
2-C
c-C
2-C
c-D
2-C
c-E2
-C
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EUR
(B
cf/w
ell)
Upper Montney Wells (by completion date)
EUR (Bcf) Average EUR
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
2014 2015 2016 2017E
D&
C C
ost
s ($
MM
/we
ll)
Drilling Cost Completion Cost Design Evolution
Ongoing operational success
• Avg EUR: 9.2 Bcf since Q3 2013 (36 wells)• Repeatable and predictable outcomes
Driving lower costs
• Continuous rig program• Ongoing optimization• Pad drilling• Frac water infrastructure • Timing of completions
Evolving wellbore design
•Testing well length, proppant loading, stage count and inter-well spacing to optimize economics:
• Sand loading increased by up to 30%
• Completed length increased by up to 50%
• Increased service costs (fracturing)
Repeatable Well Deliverability at Low Cost
Decreasing Costs on Multi-well Pads
$4.2 - $4.8 MM1
1. Range includes cost of base design $4.2 MM + $0.6 MM for cost increases on design evolution; base design includes 1,800 m lateral, 30 stages, 60 T/ frac
$6.4 MM
$4.6 MM$3.8 MM
6
Pad Operations Support Capital Efficient Growth
Upper Montney Pad Performance Tracking Type Curves
1. Pads include one Lower Montney pilot well not included in the average EUR2. Avg cost for two 2016 wells, 2015 well cost $9 MM D&C3. Based on IP 365 of 875 boe/d (half-cycle 9.0 Bcf EUR type curve, $5 MM DCET)
2-C
92-C
7-H
19-E
22-C
54-D
10 km
Upper Montney Pad Wells
Aitken Core Area
Plot Legend
Pad Year Completed
Wells/Pad
AvgD&C
($MM)
Avg EUR(Bcf)
2-C 2017 6 4.7 10.3
19-E 2015/16 3 3.72 9.0
92-C 2016 6 3.9 8.9
22-C 2015 7 4.1 10.91
54-D 2015 8 4.6 8.6
7-H 2014 5 6.4 7.31
•Best pad at 22-C paid out in under a year• Recent pads meet or exceed type curve• Drilling efficiency3
• Add 17,500 boe/d/rig annually• F&D cost<$3/boe• Capital efficiency <$6,000/boe/d
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480
Mcf
/d
Normalized Days
10.5 Bcf9.0 Bcf7.5 Bcf
Type Curves
Core area delineated with high rate pads
7
Owned and Operated Infrastructure: Flexible Pace of Growth
North Aitken Creek Gas Plant
110 MMcf/d capacity
10” sales gas line; connects to Enbridge T-North system
50 MMcf/d compression & dehy, volumes
flow to McMahon for
processing
6”
6”
6”
10”
10”
Gathering trunk-lines built H1/16
10”
8”
10 km
Existing gathering trunk-lines
100% Owned & operated infrastructure
Plant 1: North Aitken Creek Gas Plant
• Phase 1: 50 MMcf/d
• Phase 2: 60 MMcf/d
• Liquids recoveries capable of ~40 bbl/MMcf (>50% C5+)
Plant 2: 198 MMcf/d facility
• Engineering in progress
• Long lead equipment included in 2017 budget
• Phase A on-stream timing to match pipeline expansions
Infrastructure investment
• At 2016 YE: $220 MM
• 2017 Budget: $92 MM
North Aitken Plant 1
110 MMcf/d raw capacity
Future site for Plant 2
Pipeline infrastructure in place to support growth• 35 km of gathering lines
• 20 km of raw gas lines (to third party facilities)
• 10 km sales gas line (gas plant to T-North)
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Jan/17 Apr/17 Jul/17
Liq
uid
s Y
ield
(b
bl/
MM
cf)
Gas
Pro
du
ctio
n (
MM
cf/d
)
North Aitken Creek Gas Plant Production
Inlet Gas (MMcf/d) Inlet Capacity (MMcf/d)C5+ Yield (bbl/MMcf) C3/C4 Yield (bbl/MMcf)
$14.70
$6.73
$1.19
$2.70
$2.00 $1.16
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Costs Revenues
$/b
oe
North Aitken Gas Plant H1 2017 Operating Netback
Royalty
Transportation
Operating Cost
C3/C4 Revenue
C5+ Revenue
Gas Revenue
Owned and Operated Infrastructure: Superior Netback
Current capacity: 85 MMcf/d (16,000 boe/d)
• Phase 1 above name plate capacity
• Initial condensate/C5+ up to 40 bbl/MMcf
• Stabilizes at >20 bbl/MMcf after one year
• Plant optimized to maximize netbacks:
• C3/C4 yield: 10-20 bbl/MMcf
• Gas heat content: 1,150-1,170 MMbtu/mcf
Operating costs to trend <$2.50/boe in 2017
• YTD costs reflect turnaround and expansion
• Plant operating netbacks >$16.50/boe in H1 2017
• Produced water recycledField netback $16.76/boe
Production shut-in to facilitate offsetting completions of new pads
Downtime for expansion and turnaround
9
$13.13
$5.86
$1.20 $0.19 $1.57
$4.26
$2.56 $1.22 $1.10 $1.96
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Costs Revenues
2017E
$/b
oe
2017E Revenues vs. CostsInterest
Royalty
G&A
Transportation
Operating Cost
Hedging
Processing Income
C3/C4 Revenue
C5+ Revenue
Gas Revenue
Capital Program Drives Transition to Low Cost Structure
Cash flow netback $10.86/boe1
2017 YTD production at record rates
• Stable production of 16,700 boe/d in Q1
• North Aitken Phase 2 commissioned in June, ahead of schedule
• Annual maintenance period was utilized to commission Phase 2 and to conduct completions that offset existing pads
Production outlook
• Production to exceed 25,000 boe/d in Q4 with installation of final inlet compressor
Cost structure
• Operating and corporate costs per boe trending lower with increased volumes through Black Swan facilities
1. Based on annual production of ~18,000 boe/d at $2.29/GJ AECO, -$0.43/GJ Station 2 to AECO differential, US$50/bbl WTI and $1.30 C$/US$
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Dai
ly P
rod
uct
ion
(b
oe
/d)
Black Swan Production
Actuals (Gas) Actuals (Liquids) Base Decline Q3 2017 Completions
Forecast
on-stream
2017 completions
Enbridge’s McMahon turnaround completed
North Aitken Plant & Enbridge McMahon turn arounds
10
2017 Outlook: Growth to 25,000 boe/d With Pad Drilling
42-D Pad(8 wells)
2-C Pad(6 wells)
72-C Pad(6 wells)
32-C Pad(6 wells)
North Aitken Plant
10 km
21%
22%
5%
48%
4%
2017 Capital Program
Drilling
Completions
Wellhead tie-in
Gathering & facilities
Other
Capital program
• 2017 budget: $180 MM
• 19 Hz wells drilled, 16 completed, 16 tied in
• Test well length, proppant loading and stage count coupled with inter-well spacing to lower cost while improving recovery
• North Aitken Creek expansion to 110 MMcf/d
• Long lead items for 198 MMcf/d Plant 2
Funding1
• 2017E cash flow from operations: $75 - $80 MM
• 2017E year-end net debt: $190 - $ 195 MM
• Expect to draw less than $60 MM of existing $250 MM bank facility
Corporate production
• 2017E: 17,500 – 18,500 boe/d
• Exit Production: 24,000 – 26,000 boe/d (17% liquids)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Q4 2016 Q4 2017E
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bo
e/d
)
Over 60% Production Growth Y/Y
1. Based on annual production of ~18,000 boe/d at $2.29/GJ AECO, -$0.43/GJ Station 2 to AECO differential, US$50/bbl WTI and $1.30 C$/US$
11
Free cash flow positive at low prices
•At $2.50/GJ AECO & $50/bbl WTI
• Only 50% of cash flow is required to maintain production
• Able to maintain production at low prices
•Reflects strong fundamentals:
• F&D cost <$3/boe
• Capital efficiency <$6,000/boe/d
• Average 9.2 Bcf over last 36 wells
Flexibility to modify pace of growth
• Positioned for growth at favorable prices
• Operated facilities provides flexibility to manage pace
Stable Base Production: Minimal Maintenance Capital Required
1. Notes:• Assumes 35% base decline; $6,000/boe/d rig efficiency, $5MM/year miscellaneous field capital• Prior to hedging gains/losses; Assumes $0.30/GJ Station 2 Differential • The ratio between maintenance capital and free cash flow will remain the same as productions
grows
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$2.00/GJ AECO $2.50/GJ AECO $3.00/GJ AECO
US$40/bbl WTI US$50/bbl WTI US$60/bbl WTI
$M
M
Free Cash Flow Generation at 26,000 boe/d1
Maintenance Capital Free Cash Flow Total Cash Flow
12
Aitken Area Capable of Delivering & Sustaining >100,000 boe/d
10 km
Aitken Core Development Area
Development plan1 uses <20% of inventory•Upper Montney has been delineated across the Aitken
core development area; 430 Hz locations remaining
•200 Hz wells over the next 5 years
•230 additional Upper Montney Hz locations maintain 100,000 boe/d for an additional eight years
•Remaining acreage & landing zones have potential to• Increase peak production, or• Extend production plateau
Capital efficient asset provides robust growth
• Single continuous rig program provides up to 20 wells per year
• 17,500 boe/d/rig annually2
• At $2.50/GJ AECO and $50/bbl WTI, can fund growth to 100,000 boe/d with cash flow and debt
Aitken core development delineated; upside on
northern acreage
1. Drilling plans are subject to annual review and may be modified based on factors including: commodity prices, facility access and regulatory constraints
2. Based on IP 365 of 875 boe/d (half-cycle 9.0 Bcf EUR type curve, $5 MM DCET)
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021EG
as (
MM
cf/d
)
Planned Plant Capacity vs. Egress Commitments
EnbridgeSpruce RidgeEnbridgeExistingTCPL NorthMontneyAlliance
Plant 2A
Plant 2B
Existing PlantCapacity
Egress Commitments Provide Transformational Growth
Full cycle economics underpinned by owned & operated infrastructure
• New processing units will be built in 100 MMcf/d (19,000 boe/d) increments
• Plant construction will be timed to align with pipeline expansion
McMahon Gas Plant
Sunset
T-South to Huntington/Sumas
Station 2
Aitken Creek Gas Storage
NGTL to AECO
North Aitken Gas Plant
BR
ITIS
H C
OLU
MB
IA
ALB
ERTA
25 km
1. NGTL is part of the TransCanada pipeline system2. North Montney Mainline & Enbridge Spruce Ridge projects are subject to regulatory approval3. Includes Black Swan owned & operated processing & existing McMahon commitments (raw capacity)4. Unutilized tolls: $0.8 MM/month post Plant 2A; $0.4MM/month post Plant 2B; $1.8 MM/month with no new processing capacity
Firm service egress commitments grow to 392 MMcf/d
• Egress on all three Canadian gas transmission systems2
• Greater than 2/3 of production to AECO in 2019
Option to accelerate
14
Source Water Secured for Development Plan
Beatton River water license
• License supports peak drilling rate of 100+ Hz wells/year
• Underpins growth to 100,000 boe/d
• Permanent intake and storage in place
• License valid until Dec 31, 20211
Responsible management & recycling • Over 1.5 MMbbl of fresh water storage capacity
constructed
• Produced water is recovered and recycled
• Produced water handling infrastructure is temporary by design to allow flexibility of operation and optimization of capital
Water License Intake 1
Water Pump Station
b-54-D Fresh Water Pit65,825 m³
c-7-H Fresh Water Pit 60,300 m³ capacity
Water pump station 1. With renewal provisions
b-11-A Fresh Water Pit44,900 m³
10 km
d-42-D Fresh Water Pit65,000 m³
15
Risk Management & Pricing
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Aug - Dec 2017 2018 2019
He
dge
d V
olu
me
s (G
J/d
)
Annual Hedging & Average Contract Pricing
Station 2 Diff ($/GJ) AECO Swaps ($/GJ)
AECO Collars ($/GJ) AECO Puts ($/GJ)
Chicago Swaps (C$/MMBtu)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Aug - Dec 2017 2018 2019
C4
& C
5+
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bo
e/d
)
Liquids Hedging & Average Contract Pricing
Swaps (C$ WTI) Collars (C$ WTI)
• Black Swan utilizes financial and physical contracts to manage price volatility
• Hedge positions can be taken to cover production up to three years out with positons layered in over time
Gas volumes are delivered primarily to Station 2 Liquids (C4 & C5+) represent >30% of revenue & priced vs. WTI
$2.72
-$0.52
$2.85 x
$3.21$2.60 $4.17
-$0.49
$2.72
$2.56
-$0.37
$2.81
$65.86
$57.51 x
$69.72
$71.78
$70.98
Note: Put prices are shown net of premiums and Chicago prices are shown prior to transportation costs on Alliance
$55.00 x
$67.25$55.00 x
$68.00
53%
29%
3%1%
11%
15%
32%
56%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aug - Dec 2017 2018
% o
f C
orp
ora
te P
rod
uct
ion
2017/2018 Gas Pricing Portfolio
Unhedged Station 2
Unhedged AECO
Unhedged Chicago
Hedged Chicago
Hedged AECO35%
13%
65%
87%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aug - Dec 2017 2018
% o
f C
orp
ora
te P
rod
uct
ion
2017/2018 Liquids (C4 & C5+) Pricing Portfolio
Unhedged
Hedged
16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Pro
gre
ss
Bla
ck S
wan
CN
Q
Sagu
aro
TOU
Po
lar
Star CR
AR
X
PP
Y
SRX
SU
ECA
CK
E
Can
bri
am RD
S
LXE
Ad
uro
TOD
D/P
OU
CO
P
KEL
PG
F
MU
R
Ne
t D
SUs2
Over-pressured; repeatable deliverability•Highly over-pressured reservoir 13-16 kPa/m
Liquids-rich•Total liquids of 30-50 bbl/MMcf1 (>50% C5+)
Low cost •Shallow target, surface access and drilling characteristics
Scalable• Large contiguous position
Liquids-rich gas
Dominant Position in Over-Pressured, Liquids-Rich Fairway
Black Swan holds the second largest liquids-rich position in
the NEBC Montney fairway
Liquids Rich Montney Rights
Dry gas Oil
Upper Montney Oil Window
Normally Pressured
Upper Montney Dry Gas
Alb
erta
B.C
.
Caribou
Umbach
Town
AltaresSeptimus
Groundbirch
Swan
Parkland
Aitken
Beg
JedneyLaprise
Montney Hz post 2013
Legend
Montney Hz
Black Swan land
Liquids-rich gas window
Dry gas window
Oil window (>75 bbl/MMcf)
Montney TVD contour1600m
25 km
Upper Montney Over-Pressured
Liquids-Rich Fairway
17
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
D&
C C
ost
$M
M
Drilling & Completion Cost (2016)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gas
We
igh
tin
g
Gas Weighting (2016)
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
20
17
E $
/bo
e
Operating Cost (2017E)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
EUR
(B
cf)
EUR2 – Wells Drilled in Last Three Years
Differentiation: Performance on Multiple Factors vs. Peers1
Well performance
Leading capital efficiencies
Infrastructure advantage
Liquids contribution
Black Swan Full Cycle
Forward Economics3
$/boe
Revenue 20.75
Royalty 1.35
Opex + transport 5.10
G&A + interest 2.45
Cash Netback 11.85
Half cycle F&D (2.95)
Infrastructure (2.55)
Full cycle F&D 5.50
Profit 6.35
Recycle ratio 2.2x
1. Peer group includes: AAV, ARX, BIR, Canbriam, CR, KEL, NVA, PPY, Saguaro, SRX, TOU, VII2. Internal estimates, Montney gas & liquids rich wells 3. Inputs based on $2.50/GJ AECO, $50/bbl WTI, 9 Bcf type curve and expected five year growth profile
BSE8.3
BSE3.8
BSE4.11
BSE84%
Source: Internal estimates & company reports
Includes three Lower Montney wells BSE Plant (excludes McMahon production)
18
Strategic Focus: Scalable, Low Cost Growth
Current Activity
• Pad development: one-rig Montney program• North Aitken Gas Plant expansion to 110 MMcf/d• Engineering and long lead items for 198 MMcf/d Plant 2
One to Three Year Window
• Accelerate development plan with additional rigs• Commission Plant 2• Advance planning for additional processing capacity
Ongoing
• Strong balance sheet; disciplined capital management• Low cost operations• Technical innovation and continuous improvement
19
Appendix:Corporate & Financial Summary
20
Black Swan Energy Executive Team
David Maddison, P.Eng.David is President, CEO and founder of Black Swan Energy. He has over 37 years of industry experience focused on conventional and resource plays in Western Canada. Prior to Black Swan, he was with Talisman Energy where he managed multi-disciplinary teams in the WCSB, with production of 100,000 boe/d and annual capital budgets of $1 billion.
Marc Mereau, P.Eng.Marc is Chief Operating Officer and a co-founder of Black Swan Energy. He has over 36 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, both domestically and internationally. Prior to Black Swan, Marc worked at Talisman Energy, where he held progressively larger roles including Senior Vice President of Western Operations for North America.
Michael Wilhelm, B.Comm., CPA, CGAMike is Vice President, Finance and CFO and a co-founder of Black Swan. He has over 30 years experience in the oil and gas industry, with an extensive background in both private and public financings in Canadian and U.S. markets. Mike was involved as a founder and in the ongoing funding of Equatorial Energy and Espoir Exploration. He was also involved with the IPO of Resolute Energy Inc. through the RTO of Equatorial Energy Inc.
Bruce Thornhill, P.GeoBruce is Vice President, Exploration of Black Swan Energy. He has over 35 years of experience in the energy industry focused on conventional and resource play exploration and development throughout Western Canada, primarily in Deep Basin areas. Prior to joining Black Swan, he was a member of the senior management team at TAQA North, first as VP of Exploration and later as VP of the North Asset managing an annual capital budget of $200MM.
Bryan Lang, P.Eng.Bryan is Vice President, Operations of Black Swan Energy. He has over 27 years of experience in the energy industry focused on Western Canadian operations. He started his career at Chevron Canada and at growth oriented operators Northrock Resources and Peyto Exploration. He played a lead role in the development of horizontal multistage resource plays, and has assembled highly efficient teams focused on safe, low cost operations.
Leanne Juneau, B.Comm.Leanne is Vice President, Land and co-founder of Black Swan. She has over 20 years experience negotiating and executing exploration and development agreements and strategic corporate and asset acquisitions and dispositions within Western Canada totaling over $500 million. She has previously held positions at Redcliffe Exploration, Talisman Energy and Northrock Resources.
Diane Shirra, B.Eng., MBA, P.Eng.Diane is Vice President, Business Development of Black Swan. She has over 33 years of experience in the energy industry focused on exploitation and development of both conventional and resource plays throughout Western Canada. Most recently she was VP Montney Gas Development and VP Reserves and Strategic Projects at Pengrowth Energy Corporation.
Christine Ezinga, B.Comm., CFAChristine is Vice President of Strategy & Planning at Black Swan Energy. She has over 16 years of diverse capital markets experience in finance, investor relations and corporate development with direct involvement in over $9 billion of executed M&A deals. Prior to joining Black Swan, she was Team Lead – Finance, Business Development at Sinopec Canada, following the successful sale of Daylight Energy to Sinopec.
21
Black Swan Energy Board of Directors
David B. Krieger David is a member of the Warburg Pincus Executive Management team, having joined Warburg in 2000, and focuses on energy investments. Previously, he worked at McKinsey & Company. Mr. Krieger is a Director of Kosmos Energy, MainSail Energy, MEG Energy, Osum Oil Sands, Rubicon Oilfield International, Sheridan Production, Trident Energy and Velvet Energy. Mr. Krieger received a B.S. in economics summa cum laude from the Wharton, an M.S. with high honors from the Georgia Institute of Technology and an M.B.A. with distinction from Harvard Business School.
Dr. James BuckeeIn September 1991 Jim was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer for BP Canada Inc. and in May 1993 he was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Talisman Energy Inc. (formerly BP Canada). When Jim retired, in October 2007, Talisman was producing over 500,000 boe/d. He also serves on the boards of Magma Global and M-Flow and sits on the advisory Board of Azimuth Capital Management. Jim holds a BSc Honours in Physics from the University of Western Australia and in 1970 he received his PhD in Astrophysics at Oxford University.
Jackie Sheppard, Lead DirectorJackie was the Executive Vice-President, Corporate and Legal and Corporate Secretary for Talisman Energy Inc. She served as Secretary to the Board responsible for Corporate Projects and Acquisitions, Communications and Investor Relations. She currently serves on the Boards of Cairn Energy, Emera Inc. and Seven Generations
Robert MellemaRobert has been with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) since 2008 and focuses on Natural Resources investments. Prior to joining CPPIB, Mr. Mellema worked at UBS on the Canadian M & A team. Mr. Mellema serves as a Director on the boards of Livingston International Inc. and Wolf Midstream and has previously been involved in CPPIB’s investments in Teine Energy and Seven Generations Energy. Mr. Mellema holds a MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a Bachelor of Commerce degree from Queen’s University.
Roy Ben-DorRoy joined Warburg Pincus in 2011 and previously worked at McKinsey & Company in New York. He is also a director of MainSail Energy and Zenith Energy and works with MEG Energy, Navitas Midstream and Osum Oil & Sands. He received his BA cum laude in psychology and economics with Distinction from Duke University, a J.D. magna cum laude from Harvard Law School and a MBA with high distinction from Harvard Business School.
Jim NieuwenburgJim is an Operating Partner at Azimuth Capital Management. He has over 35 years of experience in the energy sector and over 20 years of executive management and corporate governance experience. Previously, he has held positions at Petromet Resources (CEO), Norcen Energy (Vice President) and Amoco Canada. Jim also serves as a Director on the boards of Corex Resources, Monolith Materials, Recovery Energy Services and Rifco Inc.
Dave PearceDave is Deputy Managing Partner with Azimuth Capital Management. During his 36 years in the energy sector, Mr. Pearce has worked in a variety of technical and executive roles in Exploration, Production and Corporate Development as well as an Independent Director in Canada and internationally. Mr. Pearce was President and CEO of Northrock Resources, an intermediate Canadian E&P company. Currently, Mr. Pearce is also a Director of TimberRock Energy, Altex Energy Ltd., Kaisen Energy, Kaden Energy, Entrada Resources and Raging River Exploration.
David Maddison, P.Eng.David is President, CEO and founder of Black Swan Energy. He has over 37 years of industry experience focused on conventional and resource plays in Western Canada. Prior to Black Swan, he was with Talisman Energy where he managed multi-disciplinary teams in the WCSB, with production of 100,000 boe/d and annual capital budgets of $1 billion.
22
Historical Financial Summary
1. Preliminary values, subject to Audit Committee approval2. NOI as presented does not include realized hedging gains/(losses)3. EBITDA calculated as NOI + processing income – G&A
2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014
Q21 Q1 Full Year Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Full Year Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Full Year Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Production
Oil (bbl/d) - - 16 - - - 65 79 54 64 82 116 17 69 - - -
Gas (mcf/d) 66,194 85,832 67,151 74,626 75,484 71,376 46,944 23,538 26,513 24,318 19,431 23,853 18,220 22,410 21,098 17,185 12,044
NGL (bbl/d) 1,868 2,427 2,099 2,254 2,506 2,399 1,232 614 875 539 519 521 442 496 483 448 339
Total (boe/d) 12,900 16,732 13,307 14,692 15,087 14,295 9,121 4,616 5,348 4,656 3,840 4,612 3,496 4,300 3,999 3,312 2,346
Financial ($ 000)
Net Operating Income2 14,241 22,639 50,484 20,154 16,506 10,188 3,636 13,098 3,082 3,272 3,945 2,799 24,794 5,169 7,024 6,995 5,606
EBITDA3 13,074 20,722 47,513 15,529 16,104 11,452 4,428 6,819 1,571 1,559 2,558 1,131 17,417 2,480 5,580 5,216 4,141
Cash Flow 9,705 17,841 43,225 14,503 15,138 9,518 4,066 4,881 1,103 1,176 1,598 1,004 17,014 2,390 5,553 5,015 4,056
Capex (incl. A&D) 54,539 49,377 84,453 28,432 23,499 (2,209) 34,731 402,684 58,667 79,415 222,931 41,671 120,530 47,999 29,554 17,417 25,560
Capital Structure ($ 000)
Working Capital Deficit (Surplus) 23,916 (8,140) 11,507 11,255 5,875 612 16,981 46,854 46,854 41,707 (7,196) 32,116 16,449 16,449 840 (1,981) (14,482)
Bank Debt 13,091 - 76,555 76,555 68,258 65,180 60,538 - - 555 50,000 25,000 - - - - -
Term Notes 125,645 128,867 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Net Debt 162,916 120,727 88,062 87,810 74,133 65,792 77,519 46,854 46,854 41,262 42,804 57,116 16,449 16,449 840 (1,981) (14,482)
Total Credit Facility 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 140,000 140,000 130,000 130,000 130,000 80,000 70,000 70,000 40,000 40,000 24,000 24,000 12,000
Netback Summary ($/boe)
Net Revenue 22.13 23.07 17.97 22.65 18.83 14.97 13.60 18.82 16.26 18.19 21.77 20.02 34.69 26.39 33.43 40.01 44.88
Hedging Gain (Loss) 0.27 (0.20) 0.87 (1.28) 0.44 2.46 2.60 0.33 0.60 (0.04) 0.60 0.15 - - - - -
Royalties (1.02) (1.26) (0.94) (1.44) (1.13) (0.46) (0.57) (0.99) (0.73) (0.76) (0.95) (1.57) (3.67) (3.67) (3.33) (3.77) (4.12)
Opex (5.74) (4.39) (4.56) (4.01) (3.53) (4.49) (6.34) (9.07) (7.49) (9.24) (8.80) (10.99) (10.77) (8.82) (10.13) (12.24) (13.44)
Transportation (3.23) (2.34) (2.10) (2.29) (2.28) (2.19) (2.31) (0.98) (1.77) (0.55) (0.73) (0.72) (0.82) (0.83) (0.88) (0.79) (0.77)
Operating Netback 12.40 14.83 11.24 13.63 12.34 10.29 6.98 8.11 6.87 7.60 11.89 6.89 19.43 13.07 19.09 23.21 26.55
General & Administrative (1.45) (1.27) (1.76) (2.33) (1.12) (1.68) (2.01) (4.52) (5.28) (3.95) (4.57) (4.17) (5.78) (6.80) (3.92) (5.90) (6.94)
Processing Income 0.19 0.20 0.27 0.19 0.38 0.19 0.37 0.47 1.61 - - - - - - - -
Interest/Other Expense (2.87) (1.91) (0.87) (0.74) (0.70) (1.48) (0.44) (1.16) (0.96) (0.90) (2.75) (0.30) (0.32) (0.23) (0.08) (0.68) (0.40)
Cash Flow From Operations 8.27 11.85 8.88 10.73 10.91 7.32 4.90 2.90 2.24 2.75 4.57 2.42 13.33 6.04 15.09 16.64 19.21
23
Appendix:Half-cycle Input Assumptions
24
Type Curve Assumptions
1. Economics assume Black Swan owned infrastructure; FX C/US$ of $1.30, $1.25 & $1.20 at US$40/bbl, US$50/bbl & US$60/bbl respectively; Station 2 differential = $0.32/mcf
2. Economics include equip & tie-in costs of $0.4 MM/well for total well costs of $5 MM
3. Black Swan pays BC Crown royalties calculated on a sliding scale for gas based on price and production rate & fixed percentage of revenue for liquids
4. Pricing relative to C$WTI: C5+: 91%, C4: 41%, C3: 10% at US$50/bbl oil (realizations include price offsets; trucking of $4.00/bbl included in opex & transportation)
5. Opex & transportation represent the average cost during the first 12-months
25
Appendix:Drilling, Completions & Well Results
26
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
De
pth
(m
MD
)
Total Days
Total Time vs. Depth
2015/16 Pad Wells
2017 Pad Wells
2017 Best Pad Well
Drilling Improvements Early in Development
• Black Swan has established a highly effective drilling program as a result of continuous operations
• One new high horsepower telescopic double top drive rig commissioned in Q3 2013
• Use of preset rig minimizes costs between surface hole and monobore
• ‘Tapered’ monobore well design reduces overall well costs, improves frac hydraulics
• Continuous improvements with drilling fluids, bit and BHA design, rig technology
• On average wells are drilled and cased in under two weeks; 20+ wells/rig/year
• Drilling cost per meter reduced 12% in 2017 with improvements in drilling efficiency and longer laterals
Build section (turn to Hz)
Change to slim Hz drilling assembly
Set packers, cement, rig out
Preset Rig
PadRig
Move pad rig, install BOP
Preset surface, skid rig
27
Completions: Optimization of Design
4,600
5,600
6,600
7,600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
fee
t
me
tre
s
Completed Well Length
330
430
530
630
730
830
930
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
lbs/
ft
ton
ne
/m
Proppant Concentration
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
020406080
100120140160180200220
fee
t
me
tre
s
Stage Spacing
Current Completion Design
Open hole ball drop• 2,200 m lateral, 34 stages, single port entry• 65 m port spacing• Proppant: 90 tonne/stage, 3,000 tonne/well, 1.33 tonne/m loading• 13,000 m3 recycled slickwater blend
Pad design modifications provide• Optimized landing interval for frac initiation, geometric completion design• Multiple wells with modified zipper frac• Complementary inter-well stage overlap with maximum interference between
wells/stages to enhance stimulated reservoir volume
Early move to short stages, optimizing well length and sand loading in development• 2012/13 – Perf-plug, long stage length, 8 stages x3 perfs/stage, 0.7 t/m• 2014/15 – Open hole, short stage length, 20 stages, 1.0 t/m• 2016/17 – Reduced stage length, increased lateral length, 33 stages,
1.33 t/m• From early development to current design, +33% increase in length, 70%
reduction in stage spacing and 80% increase in sand loading resulting in increasing EUR per well and high recovery factor
Completion Design Evolution
Optimizing Recovery Per DSU• Extended reach wells to reduce capital• Tighter stage spacing (65m vs 90m)• Increased sand intensity with wider inter-well spacing• Fluid additive technology, diversion techniques• Unlimited stage fracturing systems
28
Upper Montney Multi-Well Pad Production Summary
• Black Swan utilizes downhole chokes on all Hz wells for operational purposes
• Data presented is based on actual daily production which has been normalized to adjust for downtime
Note: Gas rates shown are raw
Internal UWI Completion Montney IP30 IP90 IP365Cum to Jun/17 EUR
Reference (Year) Target (MMcf/d) (MMcf/d) (MMcf/d) (Bcf) (Bcf)
9 Bcf Type Curve (unrestricted) 7,000 6,100 4,330 9.0
9 Bcf Type Curve (choked) 4,400 4,400 3,980 9.0
2-C Well Pad
c-E2-C 200/a-091-K 094-A-13/00 2017 Upper 6,641 NA NA 0.1 10.1
c-D2-C 200/b-100-J 094-A-13/00 2017 Upper 5,815 NA NA 0.0 10.8
c-C2-C 200/a-100-J 094-A-13/00 2017 Upper NA NA NA 0.0 10.6
c-B2-C 200/c-025-C 094-H-04/00 2017 Upper NA NA NA 0.0 9.2
c-A2-C 200/b-035-C 094-H-04/00 2017 Upper NA NA NA 0.0 10.3
c-2-C 200/a-035-C 094-H-04/00 2017 Upper NA NA NA 0.0 11.0
19-E Well Pad
b-B19-E 200/b-097-D 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 3,240 4,444 NA 0.5 9.0
a-20-E 200/c-088-D 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 5,000 4,448 NA 0.7 7.5
b-19-E 200/b-098-D 094-H-04/02 2015 Upper 5,701 5,129 4,617 2.3 10.5
92-C Well Pad
a-B92-C 200/c-004-F 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 5,917 5,577 NA 0.8 10.0
a-A92-C 200/a-014-F 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 6,126 5,615 NA 0.7 10.0
a-E92-C 200/b-080-B 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 4,847 4,309 NA 0.5 7.5
a-D92-C 200/a-080-B 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 4,833 4,317 NA 0.9 8.0
a-C92-C 200/d-080-B 094-H-04/00 2016 Upper 3,774 3,519 NA 0.4 7.5
a-92-C 200/d-004-F 094-H-04/02 2013 Upper 5,886 5,951 NA 1.2 10.5
22-C Well Pad
b-G22-C 202/b-010-B 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 7,343 6,450 NA 1.6 11.0
b-F22-C 200/d-010-B 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 5,790 6,375 5,217 2.1 12.0
b-E22-C 202/c-034-C 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 7,886 7,001 NA 1.5 11.0
b-D22-C 200/c-034-C 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 6,656 6,454 4,995 1.7 11.0
b-C22-C 200/a-044-C 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 6,522 5,783 NA 1.4 10.5
b-A22-C 200/c-010-B 094-H-04/02 2013 Upper 6,521 5,900 4,655 1.6 10.0
54-D Well Pad
a-D54-D 200/a-075-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 4,428 4,431 3,697 1.7 9.0
b-B54-D 200/b-075-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 4,659 4,587 3,367 1.5 8.0
a-C54-D 202/d-066-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 4,520 4,271 3,454 1.6 8.0
a-B54-D 200/d-066-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 5,065 4,602 3,336 1.5 7.5
a-A54-D 202/a-032-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 6,893 6,042 4,695 2.0 9.0
a-54-D 200/a-032-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 3,913 4,201 3,739 1.5 8.5
b-A54-D 200/b-032-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 5,368 4,949 3,923 1.5 9.0
b-54-D 200/a-033-D 094-H-04/00 2015 Upper 5,284 5,080 3,920 1.6 9.0
7-H Well Pad
c-B7-H 200/b-095-A 094-G-01/02 2014 Upper 4,233 2,922 3,137 1.8 7.2
c-A7-H 202/a-096-A 094-G-01/00 2014 Upper 4,870 4,274 2,738 1.6 6.0
c-7-H 200/b-096-A 094-G-01/00 2014 Upper 7,506 4,559 3,171 1.7 6.0
b-17-H 200/a-095-A 094-G-01/00 2014 Upper 10,792 6,823 4,441 2.7 10.0
29
Appendix:Egress & Hedging
30
2017 2018 2019
Receipt Point Delivery Point Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Enbridge
High Pine Ft. Nelson T-North NGTL or Station 2 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240
Jackfish Lake Ft. St. John T-North Station 2 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138
Wyndwood Ft. St. John T-North NGTL or Station 2 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Spruce Ridge Program Aitken Creek NGTL or Station 2 402 402
Total Enbridge 138 138 378 428 428 428 428 428 428 830 830
NGTL
Towerbirch Tower Lake or Sunset NGTL 859 859 859 859 859 859 859 859 859
North Montney Aitken Creek NGTL 1,485 1,485 1,485
Total NGTL 859 859 859 859 859 859 2,344 2,344 2,344
Cumulative Total 138 138 1,237 1,287 1,287 1,287 1,287 1,287 2,772 3,174 3,174
Over 3 Bcf/d New Egress Planned Within Three Years
Industry has demonstrated support for multiple expansions
• All six NEBC expansion projects are fully contracted• Spruce Ridge & North Montney are pending regulatory approval, all
other projects are expected to be on-stream as scheduled• Additional expansion projects are expected to be proposed in the near term
Ongoing downstream work being done ahead of anticipated growth
• Additional expansion work and de-bottlenecking is underway on the Alberta system to accommodate the growth and increase the ability for western Canadian gas to access North American markets
Source: Company reports and Black Swan Energy
31
Key Western Canadian Pipelines & Market Hubs
NGTL
ENBRIDGE
ALLIANCE
NORTHERNBORDER
TCPL MAINLINE
GREAT LAKESIROQUOIS
VIKING
ROVER
NEXUS
FOOTHILLS
GTN
VECTOR
CHICAGO
DAWN
AECO
MALIN
SKAB
BC
MB
ONQC
WADDINGTONEMERSONSUMAS
STN 2
HENRY HUB
ROCKIES EXPRESS
NIAGRA
OPAL
RUBY
1. LNG Potential: 4.0+ Bcf/d2. T-South: 1.7 Bcf/d3. NGTL West Gate: 2.0 Bcf/d4. Oil Sands: 1.5 – 2.0 Bcf/d demand 5. Alliance: 1.6 Bcf/d6. AECO: 4.0 Bcf/d
2
3
4
6
5
1
7
8
Infrastructure connects Black Swan to diverse existing and new markets• NEBC Montney is one of the most active natural gas development area
in western Canada • Western Canadian base production declines and new demand will be
predominantly supplied by the Montney• Existing infrastructure capable of delivering ~12 Bcf/d of gas beyond
western Canadian markets (to the US and eastern Canada)
Canadian LNG projects - potential access to offshore markets• Multiple export licenses issued by Canadian government• PETRONAS: PNW cancelled, reviewing other west coast LNG options• LNG Canada (Shell): FID delayed, owners remain supportive• Woodfibre LNG announced approval for funding to proceed Nov 4, 2016
32
Marketing and Risk Management
Third party natural gas processing• 25 MMcf/d firm: McMahon Q4 2015 to Q4 2020
Natural gas egressFrom McMahon• 9.1 MMcf/d Alliance Q4 2015 to Q4 2017 • 4 MMcf/d T-North Q4 2016 to Q4 2018+• 2.8 MMcf/d T-North Q4 2016 to Q4 2028 • 20 MMcf/d T-North Q1 2018 to Q4 2029From North Aitken Creek BSE Plant• 40 MMcf/d T-North Q4 2015 to Q4 2028• 20 MMcf/d Alliance Q2 2017 to Q4 2020• 20 MMcf/d T-North Q3 2017 to Q2 2028• 16.5 MMcf/d T-North Q4 2017 to Q4 2018• 60 MMcf/d T-North Q3 2019 to Q3 2034• 229 MMcf/d North Montney Q2 2019 to Q2 2039
Risk management positions (Aug 31, 2017)
Egress Volumes by Year:2017: 103 MMcf/dT-North Station 2: 83.3 MMcf/dAlliance ATP: 20 MMcf/dAlliance Chicago: 9.1 MMcf/d
2018: 123 MMcf/dT-North Station 2: 103.3 MMcf/dAlliance ATP: 20 MMcf/d
2019: 392 MMcf/dT-North Station 2: 142.8 MMcf/dAlliance ATP: 20 MMcf/dNGTL: 229 MMcf/d
Natural Gas Liquids (C5+/C4)
Station 2 Differential AECO Swaps AECO Costless Collars AECO Puts Chicago Swaps AECO/Chicago Station 2 C$WTI Swaps C$WTI Costless Collars C$WTI
TermVolume (GJ/day)
Price (C$/GJ)
Volume (GJ/day)
Price (C$/GJ)
Volume Put Price Call Price Volume (GJ/d)
Premium (C$/GJ)
Strike (C$/GJ)
Volume (MMBtu/d)
Price (C$/MMBtu)
% Production Volume (bbl/day)
Price (C$/bbl)
Volume Put Price Call Price % Production
GJ/d C$/GJ C$/GJ Hedged Bbl/d C$/Bbl C$/Bbl Hedged
Q3 2017 39,120 ($0.58) 41,986 $2.79 10,000 $2.85 $3.21 6,845 $4.17 55% 37% 967 $65.95 141 $59.09 $73.06 43%
Q4 2017 74,732 ($0.48) 64,636 $2.67 10,000 $2.85 $3.21 9,946 ($0.30) $2.90 2,306 $4.17 58% 50% 834 $65.84 291 $56.77 $68.16 31%
Q1 2018 68,862 ($0.48) 58,910 $2.81 20,000 ($0.34) $2.90 51% 45% 323 $71.68 14%
Q2 2018 62,366 ($0.50) 35,971 $2.69 23% 39% 313 $71.75 13%
Q3 2018 57,084 ($0.50) 35,590 $2.69 22% 36% 303 $71.83 13%
Q4 2018 52,471 ($0.49) 35,260 $2.69 22% 33% 300 $71.85 13%
Q1 2019 49,000 ($0.35) 17,488 $2.77 11% 31% 150 $70.95 9%
Q2 2019 34,330 ($0.37) 1,597 $2.86 1% 13% 127 $70.97 5%
Q3 2019 32,674 ($0.38) 0% 13% 100 $71.00 5%
Q4 2019 20,717 ($0.36) 0% 8% 34 $71.00 4%
2017 48,269 ($0.50) 41,597 $2.77 11,684 $2.83 $3.21 2,507 ($0.30) $2.90 5,540 $4.14 56% 44% 851 $64.94 158 $58.96 $72.79 40%
2018 60,142 ($0.49) 41,352 $2.72 4,932 ($0.34) $2.90 29% 38% 310 $71.78 200 $55.00 $67.25 13%
2019 34,099 ($0.37) 4,710 $2.81 2% 14% 102 $70.98 200 $55.00 $68.00 5%
33
Appendix:Resources & Reserves
34
Substantial Resource to Unlock
Capable of sustaining 2 Bcf/d for 10 years
•Gas-in-place supports long-term growth
•Average 250 Bcf/DSU OGIP
•78 Tcf of gas-in-place
•Over 2,500 Hz well inventory and 14 Tcfe of recoverable resource (two horizons only)
•Potential for development of four horizons
Aitken
Laprise/Sojer
Jedney
1. 4.5 wells/DSU/layer (300 m spacing), two layers developed, ranging from 5.0-9.0 Bcf/well, 90% land utilization2. 4.5 wells/DSU/layer (300 m spacing), four layers developed, ranging from 7.0-11.0 Bcf/well, 90% land utilization
Note: Based on management estimates, liquids converted at 1 bbl: 6 Mcf for gas equivalency, 40 bbl/MMcf liquids and 8% shrinkage
DSUs Base Case1 Upside Estimate2
#Hz Locations
#
Recoverable Resource
Tcfe
Hz Locations
#
Recoverable Resource
Tcfe
Aitken 146 1,176 7.9 2,353 18.2
Laprise/Sojer 102 822 4.1 1,644 11.5
Jedney 64 516 2.6 1,031 7.2
Total 312 2,514 14.6 5,028 37
19% Recovery Factor 47% Recovery Factor
Internal Estimate of Resource
10 km
Legend
1
2
3
4
35
Growth Plan Supported by Low Cost Reserves
16%
25%
44%
2%
1%
12%
2016 Reserves: Value1
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
PPY AAV ARX BSE BIR CR PEY BNP TOU SRX NVA KEL VII
$/b
oe
Peer Comparison: 3 Year 2P FD&A (incl. FDC)
1. GLJ January 1, 2017 price forecast, includes 1P FDC $0.9 B and 2P FDC $2.4 B2. Natural gas volumes converted to barrels of oil equivalent at 6,000 cubic feet per barrel (6 mcf = 1 boe)
2016 PDP adds replaced 196% of annual production
Avg: $6.43/boe
2016 Company Interest ReservesNet Present
Value1 Before Tax ($MM)
Gas (MMcf)
NGLs (mbbl)
Total (mboe)2 0% 10%
PDP 190,215 6,344 38,046 649 366
Total proved 850,804 29,010 170,811 2442 898
Proved + probable 2,366,565 83,095 477,522 8,583 2,125
8%
28%
64%
2016 Total Reserves
PDPProved Non-ProducingProbable
32
95
12311
44
104
2016 Reserves: Locations
36
Proved plus probable reserves
• 2016 YE 2P reserves were 478 MMboe, of which 75% are in the Upper Montney where development is focused
• 2P reserves for drilled wells and offset locations are based on test results or longer term production
Infill locations & PUD wells
• GLJ reserves for infill locations assume four wells/layer/DSU and are based on regional performance and OGIP considerations, the Proved component is typically 75 – 80% of the 2P estimate
• GLJ infill type curve assumptions:
• Upper Montney: 7.5-9.0 Bcf
• Lower Montney: 4.5 Bcf
• Infill PUD and Probable locations are booked between economic well tests within 1.5 and 3 miles respectively
• PUD inventory does not exceed five years of drilling
Economics
• GLJ’s economic parameters such as Future Development Capital (FDC), opex and liquid recoveries are in line with BSE’s development plan and are consistent with what they use for other operators
• Year-end valuation is done at GLJ’s Dec 31, 2016 price forecast
• GLJ has booked approximately 50% of what Black Swan considers the core development area
Reserve Booking Methodology
Upper Montney Reserve Booking Map
10 km
37
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
2014 2015 2016 2017
Liquids Revenue as % of Total Revenue
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17
Liq
uid
s Y
ield
(b
bl/
MM
cf)
Black Swan Corporate Liquid Yield
McMahon Black Swan Plant
Black Swan Corporate Black Swan Plant Theorectical
Superior recoveries realized through Black Swan’s North Aitken plant
•Until August 2017 North Aitken was operated to minimize C3 recovery and maximize gas heat content to optimize netbacks (~10 bbl/MMcf C3/C4 vs. design of 20 bbl/MMcf)
•Average McMahon recoveries:
• 19 bbl/MMcf (73% C5+); 11% liquids
•Corporate liquids ratio will increase as Black Swan expands its owned and operated processing capacity and McMahon volumes are a smaller percentage
• Long term expected liquids recovery: 30-50 bbl/MMcf (varying based on propane prices)
Black Swan Liquids Yields
Note: Theoretical based on 20 bbl/MMcf of C3/C4 recovery at refrig design temperature
Black Swan’s plant provides superior liquids yield vs. McMahon
North Aitken plant online
Strong gas prices exiting 2016 lowered the % of
liquids revenue
Liquid Recoveries
August 2017 Average 2016
bbl/MMcf CorporateNorth Aitken Corporate
North Aitken
C5+ 25 31 23 29
C3/C4 19 22 8 11
Total 44 53 31 40
38
Base Decline & Impact of New Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19
Gas
Pro
du
ctio
n (
MM
cf/d
)
Black Swan Wells by Vintage
2017 Completions
2016 Completions
2015 Completions
2014 Completions
2012 & 2013 Completions
Base decline on existing wells: ~35%
39
Appendix:Montney Fairway
40
NEBC Growth Driven by Junior/Intermediate Producers
1. Historical Tourmaline production represents Shell prior to the Gundy acquisition; UGR combined with historical Painted Pony production
Industry investment accelerating• Rig activity increasing - 12 rigs operating in Aug 2017 compared
to 1 in Aug 2016• North Montney as high as 1.4 Bcf/d in Jan 2017• Juniors and Intermediates represent ~50% of total North
Montney production up from ~30% three years ago
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Avg
Cal
en
dar
Day
Gas
(M
Mcf
/d)
Production Month
North Montney Production
ARC
Todd
Suncor
Conoco
Kelt
Polar Star
Chinook
CNRL
Tourmaline
Saguaro
BSE
Storm
Canbriam
Painted Pony
Progress
June 2015 & 2017 volumes impacted by Enbridge
McMahon turnarounds
Note: Competitor land positions based on public reports and geoSCOUT
20 km
41
Legend
Black Swan Lands
50 m
Siltstone
Siltstone & Sandstone
Sandstone
Montney Isopach Contours
Montney: Proven Top-Tier North American Play
Source: Montney facies base map modified after Canadian Discovery Ltd. (2008)
Black Swan Beg A-020-H/094-G-01
Low
er
Mo
ntn
ey
20
0 m
etr
es
Up
pe
r M
on
tne
y6
5 m
etr
es
100 km
BC
Alb
ert
a
Grande Prairie
Ft St John
•Montney over 250 m thick
•Four landing zones are proven Hz targets either on or immediately adjacent to Black Swan lands
•Consistent, high quality reservoir exhibited across acreage; shelf edge to offshore depositional environment
•Porosity averages 5.0% in the Upper Montney and 4.5% in the Lower. Both zones have very low water saturation
•Favourable stress regime, low clay content and low Poisson’s ratio conducive to effective development of natural and induced fractures
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100