north yorkshire fire & rescue service members’ seminar 30th november 2012 five year estimates,...
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North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
Members’ Seminar 30th November 2012
Five Year Estimates, Budget and Precepts2013/2014 to 2017/2018
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
Background
Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2017/2018
Potential variability limits certainty but looking to estimate for 10 Years
Biggest changes in Local Government Financing probably since re-organisation early 70’s
More Uncertainty Until New System Settled
This Year’s Middle Way
Council Tax Freeze 2012/13 (√) Continuing Grant Reductions (√) 2013/14 to 2015/16:Savings of £2.5m
required over the three years (√) 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013 (X) Use Some Reserves in 2013/2014 (X)
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
2013/2014 Assumptions
A Pay award of 1% General Price Inflation of 2% 5% Vacancies in Retained Establishment No Change to Employers Pension Contribution New Burdens Fully Funded All budgeted savings delivered Neutral Reduction in Taxbase/Grant Provision 7%+ Reduction in Grant (Exc CT Freeze Grant)
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
A Balanced Base Budget Expenditure down 1.9% (£629,000) Income down 11.8% (£284,000) 1.06% increase in Council Tax Add £155,000 to Reserves and Increase Council
Tax by just under 2% Opt For Freeze at No Cost Given Freeze Grant
of £190,000 for 2Years Based on CLG figures September £48 billion to Find From? All about the Future
2014/15 – 2017/18
2% Pay p.a 3% pa increase in Council Tax Grant profile -5.4%, -5% -5.% then
disappears as Business rates takeover General Non Staff Costs Pressures 2%p.a £2.5m savings delivered by end of
2015/16 Again Based on DCLG figures September
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
The New Retained Business Rates System
“Top Up” or “Tariff” 2% For Fire – 50% to Government so 1% Consider Growth and Yield Authority will be a “Top Up” authority Estimates based on 2012 suggest £2.9m
RBR, £8.3m Top Up 33% of Authority Finance Key is Start Up/Baseline Funding 2013/14
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
Half Full
“The Tariffs and Top Ups established through this process will be fixed until the next reset (possibly 2020) only rising annually in line with September’s Retail Price Index. This mirrors the arrangements whereby the non domestic rating multipliers are indexed to September’s RPI” (DCLG October 2012) (TABLE)
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
Half Empty
“Chief Executives of 14 Major Retailers call for a freeze in Business rates” (Financial Times October 2012)
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
Reserves
Could be crucial in Managing Funding from 2015/2016 to 2022/23
Maximum Estimated Drawing £5m over that 7 Year Period as New System grows
Minimum Estimated Drawing £3.5m Depends (mainly) on Baseline Funding Council Tax Increases of 3% RPI 2% No Further Savings
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service
Conclusions
Still Much to be Determined Increase Council Tax for 2013/2014 by 2.0% Or Freeze Council Tax For 2013/2014 Manageable Either Way “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase
2014/2015? 2020 Reset should give space for new system
Strategy/Options Statutory Duty of Best Value Compliance – Need to Do? Cost Control Rationalisation General Savings and Efficiency Drives Reserves and/or Council Tax Business Engagement Service Development
North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service