northern bank / oxford economics quarterly sectoral ...€¦ · q3 2009 -0.1 -4.9 q4 2009 0.6 -2.4...

Northern Bank / Oxford Economics Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Quarter 1 2011

Executive Summary

Economy remains cool…

After such a harsh winter many people are looking

forward to a brighter spring and warmer weather.

Unfortunately though there is little chance of too

much heat in the economy as the reality of

challenges facing the public sector and households

are becoming painfully clear. Households are facing

severe pressures on incomes as prices rise and

wages fail to keep pace. Though the pace of jobs

loss remains more muted than at the height of the

recession, job opportunities remain at a premium and

for most people the economic recovery has yet to

make an impact on their circumstances.

Budget realities cause problems

Just as households are struggling with their budgets

the Executive, having seemingly agreed a 4 year

plan, is now struggling with the detail as Departments

put together spending plans. The complexity of

enacting cuts across departments run by different

parties was always going to be complex. If it is any

comfort the Executive can look across the water to

Great Britain where Local Government spending

settlements are causing similar levels of distress and

angst. Governing in a time of austerity is a very

different proposition to governing in a time of plenty.

The interest rate debate

Worryingly for beleaguered consumers, the very

factor that is increasing pressure on them at the

moment, namely rising prices, has pushed the

interest rate rise debate to the fore – although

disappointing GDP data in the UK in Q4 has to some

extent dampened the initial enthusiasm. Simulation

work by Oxford Economics suggests that a UK

increase to 2% in the base rate in 2011 and 3.5% by

end 2012 would severely dampen the economic

recovery, taking GDP growth down by 0.2 percentage

points in 2011 and 1.2 percentage points in 2012.

This would result in significant jobs losses which

would be acutely felt in Northern Ireland.

Do not underestimate resilience

Even in these troubling times there are rays of hope.

On the data side the latest GVA data, when

converted to real prices, shows NI contracting but no

more severely than elsewhere in the UK (indeed less

than southern England) and the employment data

tells a similar story. High profile inward investment

announcements have continued and a number of

exporters continue to expand their operations. This

partly highlights the strength of global demand at

present, but also the ingenuity and spirit of talented

business people. When recessions hit and

circumstances change many businesses transform

and refocus to adapt to the new environment. Of

course many do not, but the evidence suggests that

there are businesses continuing to prosper even in

these challenging times.

GVA growth (%)

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Q1

20

06

Q2

20

06

Q3

20

06

Q4

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q2

20

07

Q3

20

07

Q4

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

12

%

NI

UK

Source: Oxford Economics

Note: Year on year growth is calculated using the growth from

say Q1 2009 to Q1 2010.

GVA growth rates - NI

Q on Q

growth

Y on Y

growth

Annual

growth

Q1 2009 -2.3 -4.3

Q2 2009 -0.9 -4.8 -3.8

Q3 2009 -0.2 -3.8

Q4 2009 1.1 -2.4

Q1 2010 0.2 0.1

Q2 2010 0.5 1.6 1.3

Q3 2010 0.0 1.7

Q4 2010 1.0 1.6

Q1 2011 0.3 1.7

Q2 2011 0.7 1.9 1.9

Q3 2011 -0.1 1.8

Q4 2011 1.2 2.1

GVA growth rates - UKQ on Q

growth

Y on Y

growth

Annual

growth

Q1 2009 -2.1 -5.4

Q2 2009 -0.8 -5.8 -4.6

Q3 2009 -0.1 -4.9

Q4 2009 0.6 -2.4

Q1 2010 0.3 0.0

Q2 2010 1.1 1.9 1.8

Q3 2010 0.8 2.9

Q4 2010 0.3 2.5

Q1 2011 0.3 2.5

Q2 2011 0.5 1.9 2.0

Q3 2011 0.5 1.6

Q4 2011 0.6 2.0

Data revisions

A number of important data revisions have occurred

since out last report including:

Regional and National Accounts data: The

latest GVA data sectorally and regionally depicts

a less severe recession in Northern Ireland than

previously thought. In nominal terms the

contraction is broadly similar to the UK average

but deflation to real prices amplifies the scale of

recession in London and the South East and

moderates it in regions such as Northern Ireland.

This is due to a complex interaction between

volumes and prices (essentially London had a

greater proportion of GVA in sectors where

prices rises were greatest).

Employment data continues to undergo modest

revisions. In the GB the revisions have been

much more significant with the publication of the

BRES employment survey.

Global and UK Overview

Trade led recovery continues …

The global recovery continues into 2011, despite

patchy data from a number of economies, particularly

the US. Asia and parts of Latin America continue to

grow robustly and China has shown only a modest

slow down in response to the governments efforts to

tackle inflation through increased rates and tighter

banking controls. However the problems of debt in

the developed world remain significant and the

impact of financial re-balancing policies are only now

beginning to impact so the global recovery in 2011,

although on track, has risks attached.

World trade flows

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Wo

rld

tra

de f

low

s (

$b

n)

Forecast

The peak in Q3 2008

was returned to by Q2

2010


Commodity prices a concern

Commodity prices continue to rise steadily, both as a

result of increased demand and through speculative

investment. High oil prices have driven up prices in

other commodities with industrial raw materials and

food prices following similar upward trajectories. With

political tensions in the Arab world, oil has now

passed the $100/barrel mark. Global economic

growth is forecast to continue and the expectation is

that the high prices will not be a temporary

phenomenon. This will place significant burdens on

businesses and consumers alike.

Commodity prices

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Co

mm

od

ity

pri

ces

(2

005

=1

00

)

Coal

Metals

Oil

Food

Forecast


With inflation now a global problem

The commodity price rises have been widespread

and almost all countries are facing higher inflation

than their respective governments would like to see.

The fragility of the economic recovery has prevented

significant interest rate rises in the West, but rates

have been rising in Asia and other emerging

economies. The prospect that inflation rises will lead

to a ‘wage / price spiral’ in the West seems unlikely,

with wage expectations very muted. However

governments cannot be seen to ignore inflation

levels, especially in countries such as the UK where

the explicit policy of the body setting rates (namely

the MPC) is to hit an inflation target. It remains a

balancing act but maintaining low interest rates is

likely to be necessary to allow the recovery to gather

traction in UK given the pressures already facing

consumers.

2010

US 1.6

India 12.1

China 3.4

Greece 4.7

Ireland -1.0

Brazil 5.0

UK 2.0

Inflation rate (%)


But corporates are investing

Key to economic recovery, especially in the West, is

the actions of the corporate sector. With consumers

and governments short of cash all eyes are on

businesses to drive demand. With the global recovery

continuing and many emerging nations enjoying rapid

growth there are plenty of opportunities and global

investment flows have picked up accordingly.

However many companies remain cautious with

major investment plans as the pace, and indeed

location, of global recovery remains uncertain. It is

the behavior of these multi national corporates that

will have a major bearing on economic growth,

particularly in the West, in 2011 and 2012.

Eurozone fears calmed, but not cured

Portugal’s successful sale of government bonds was

cautiously welcomed, as was the news the auction

was over subscribed. This assuaged the fears, at

least in the short term, that Portugal would follow

Greece and Ireland in needing financial assistance.

The situation remains precarious and continues to

increase uncertainty and curtail investment decisions

providing inertia against economic recovery. Avoiding

further crisis, it goes without saying, is essential in

ensuring the recovery is ‘locked in’ and can cope with

what will be significant headwinds in the form of

constrained governments and consumers.

Northern Ireland Overview

Similar rates of contraction?

The latest official employee data depicts Northern

Ireland contracting slightly more modestly than the

UK average. However performance in the latest

quarter was less encouraging with a modest fall in

employment of 0.4%, only three other regions lost

jobs with London and the North East suffering most

severely. There is little regional pattern and these

numbers should be treated with appropriate caution,

nevertheless it does not appear to mark the region

out as a ‘laggard’ cut adrift from the rest of the UK.

000's % 000's %

South East -16.0 -0.4 20.8 0.6

London -64.4 -1.6 -50.6 -1.3

East -4.7 -0.2 -18.2 -0.8

South West -45.3 -2.1 5.9 0.3

West Midlands -54.0 -2.4 18.5 0.8

East Midlands -24.9 -1.4 -0.9 0.0

Yorkshire & Humber -2.2 -0.1 26.9 1.3

North West -41.1 -1.4 6.5 0.2

North East -27.3 -2.6 -13.7 -1.3

Wales 5.8 0.5 8.7 0.8

Scotland 9.9 0.4 11.9 0.5

Northern Ireland -5.8 -0.8 -3.1 -0.4

United Kingdom -270.0 -1.0 12.7 0.0

Employee growth (last quarter, last year)Sep 09 - Sep 10 Jun 10 - Sep 10

Note: Employee data

But unemployment story remains weak

Unemployment data, in contrast to either employment

or GVA data, tells a more pessimistic story for the

region. In the year to December 2010 only Northern

Ireland and Scotland experienced a rise in the

claimant count with most regions enjoying fairly

marked falls. There may be a range of factors behind

this divergence in fortunes, including

Greater jobs loss – the most obvious

explanation would be a weaker labour market

than the official data suggests. Given the well

documented problems in the construction sector

this seems a strong possibility.

Construction sector impact – the Northern

Ireland construction sector has suffered more

acutely than anywhere else in the UK as a result

of the collapse in the housing market. Most

construction workers who become unemployed

do claim unemployment benefit. This is not

always the case in other sectors and this is likely

to be a factor in the recorded rise (23% of

people claiming unemployment benefit in

Northern Ireland in December 2010 were

seeking a skilled trade occupation, compared to

12% in the UK).

Demographic pressures – Northern Ireland

has a fast growing population which results in

upward pressure on unemployment levels.

Equally the level of out migration may be more

modest than in other parts of the UK economy

meaning less of an outflow from the register.

Lower incomes – as an economy with lower

levels of income it may be more important for

people to ‘sign on’ quickly. In other parts of the

UK large redundancy packets or wealthy

partners may reduce incidence of claiming

Benefit switching – In advance of the reforms

to welfare there may be a movement from other

forms of benefit onto the claimant count,

Northern Ireland has much higher levels of

people on these other forms of benefit. This is

likely to be modest at present but could become

a substantial flow.

Unemployment (Dec09 - Dec10)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

No

rth

ern

Ire

land

Sco

tla

nd

London

No

rth

Ea

st

So

uth

We

st

Yo

rksh

ire

an

d T

he

Hu

mb

er

UK

Ea

st

No

rth

We

st

Wa

les

Ea

st

Mid

land

s

So

uth

Ea

st

We

st

Mid

land

s

Cla

iman

un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

p.p

diffe

rence

Claimant unemployment rate p.p. difference

Source: Nomis

Northern Ireland has the unenviable distinction of

having 4 of the 20 highest unemployment Local

Authorities / District Councils in the UK. Even more

strikingly, over the last 24 months the region has 9 of

the 10 labour markets in which unemployment has

risen most rapidly. Though the factors listed in this

report may partly explain this pattern, as does the

artificially low starting point for these areas (due to

the temporary boost that debt led employment

provided) it is clear that the recessionary impact is

acute across many parts of the region

pp

Newry and Mourne 4.2

Limavady 4.2

Dungannon 3.4

Derry 3.4

Belfast 3.3

Craigavon 3.2

Cookstown 3.2

Armagh 3.2

Omagh 3.1

Clackmannanshire 3.1

Change in unemployment

rate, Jan 08 - Dec 10

Has self-employment been increasing?

The data on self-employment is survey based and

subject to significant margins of error so interpreting it

must be done with care. Nevertheless it appears that

self-employment levels have been rising during the

recession in Northern Ireland, as they have in most of

the UK. This may be due to more people taking on an

extra self employed job to supplement income or

people being forcing into self-employment due to the

lack of employment opportunity or redundancy. The

DETI series on self-employed jobs shows a steady

rise in the quarterly series and this is corroborated by

the workforce jobs series.

Self employment

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

(000s)

Workforce jobs

LFS

QES

Source: Workforce jobs (4 quarter average), NI LFS,

QES

Sectorally self-employment data is sparse, but in

broad terms the levels of self-employment within the

service sector (in particular hotels and transport &

communications) has been increasing. Data from the

Start a Business Programme run by InvestNI show

strong levels of demand despite reducing advertising

spend over the last year.

2003 2008 2010

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 20.1 17.9 20.9

Production & Construction 37.3 39.0 33.8

Services 51.1 65.2 63.1

All Industries 108.4 122.1 117.8

NI self employment by sector

Source: QES

Public sector job losses contentious

It remains a subject of much debate – how many jobs

will the spending cuts cause in the public sector? Key

to the level of losses will be the level of inflation in the

sector. With wage increments apparently

untouchable it seems that inflation rises will be

unavoidable, even if this results in more significant

job losses than could otherwise be the case. The

debate over losses has become heated at a political

level, with the complexities of cross party governance

even more acutely felt in NI than in the wider coalition

led UK. Currently losses are projected at over 7,500

jobs by 2015 in public administration and a further

4,000 job losses in health and education. These in

turn will have knock-on effects elsewhere. However

the contraction will provide labour for other parts of

the economy, potentially at the management level

where shortages remain. Natural wastage will be

sufficient to account for a significant proportion of the

required losses and there will be some substitution of

services by the private sector. The losses will be

damaging, it is a significant additional burden for the

private sector to replace these losses, but they need

not be devastating to economic recovery.

Public admin employment

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

(000s)

Forecast


Public services employment

220

225

230

235

240

245

250

255

260

265

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

(0

00

s)

Forecast


Risks remain on the downside

The economy remains in a fragile state with risks

remaining heaviest on the downside. The prospects

for employment growth appear modest, with the

unfortunately relatively small exporting sector the only

area of the economy likely to be in recruitment mode.

With Eurozone uncertainties, rising prices and

austerity measures, the gravity of the economic

situation should not been downplayed. In this respect

the probability of a fall back into recession has been

raised in this latest report, from 20 percent to 25

percent.

Sectoral analysis

Agriculture (+0.8% yoy 2011)

The agricultural sector continues to perform well, as

forecast. Employment has grown steadily since the

beginning of 2008, before a small fall in Q3 2010

which we project to be temporary. The sector’s

fortunes remain closely allied to world prices and the

exchange rate. With prices likely to remain strong

(though imported costs will also be high) and no

significant appreciation in Sterling projected

prospects remain positive. The downward pressure

on wages for casual labouring skills is proving

beneficial to employment levels. Margins remain tight

as competition in the sector is considerable,

consequently GVA growth is expected to continue,

but at a more modest rate than in 2010. The risk of

Euro volatility stemming from the sovereign debt

crisis is the biggest threat to the sector outside of

other shocks such as food scares or disease.

Employment/GVA Agriculture

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00s)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

year

gro

wth

)

Employment Agriculture

GVA Agriculture

Manufacturing (+3.8% yoy 2011)

Manufacturing continues to perform well after the

shake out of many construction related firms. Though

employment remains muted there have been two

quarters of growth (driven largely by metals and

electrical and optical) - though we do not forecast this

growth to continue. A slight cooling in world demand

as financial re-balancing begins to bite globally will

present some modest downward pressures. We

forecast GVA to remain in positive territory and in

many ways leading the recovery but the sector is

projected to lose 1,600 jobs over the period to end

2012. The latest output indices suggest the sector

remains subdued and below its boom level peaks,

though this is to be expected given the ‘unrepeatable’

construction related demand. There are upside risks

to this forecast and any over performance here could

significantly improve the overall outlook for Northern

Ireland growth.

Employment/GVA Manufacturing

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00s)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

year

gro

wth

)

Employment Manufacturing

GVA Manufacturing

Construction (+3.6% yoy 2011)

Construction has been at the forefront of the NI

recession, employment is down by almost 15,000

jobs from peak (even more strikingly employee levels,

i.e. excluding the self employed, are down almost

13,000). The scale of capital cut backs means that

the prospects for the sector look bleak. The official

UK GDP data for construction has been staggering

(7% in Q2 and 4% in Q3 qoq) and is scarcely

believable. As housing cools nationally and the

capital cuts bite the sector is unlikely to enjoy much

growth across the country. However, initiatives such

as the Green New Deal may offer some hope but it

remains to be seen how much people are willing to

borrow in such austere times, even with favourable

terms. There may yet be a further role for legislation

in helping to drive environmental transformation and

hence the construction sector’s prospects. The

forecast has construction experiencing GVA growth

from 2011, reflecting the level to which it has already

sunk. This may however prove optimistic with

downside risks to the fore in this sector.

Employment/GVA Construction

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

GV

A (

% y

ear

on y

ear

gro

wth

)

Employment Construction

GVA Construction

Retailing and distribution (+1.9% yoy 2011)

Data for the retail sector remains volatile with the

sector estimated to be a roughly similar size as it was

at the same point last year. However Q3 2010 was

the third consecutive quarter of net job loss. The

seasonal spike in Q4 2010 will have been hampered

by the adverse weather (though some recruitment

decisions will have been made in advance) and the

increased VAT rate will also dampen prospects in the

short term. With cross border retail flows having

moderated as price differentials close, there seems

little prospect for sustained growth in the sector.

However the emergence of lower costs retailers is

helping job creation in the sector. We forecast a slow

climb in retail employment as these new income

sensitive retailers continue to flourish and the

distribution sector responds to increases in the

manufacturing exports volumes. A much more

adverse outturn for this sector is possible if the

squeeze on consumer incomes becomes more acute

as a result of interest rate rises during 2011.

Employment/GVA Retail

130

135

140

145

150

155


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00s)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

year

gro

wth

)

Employment Retail

GVA Retail

Hospitality (+ 2.0% yoy 2011)

The data for the hotels sector continues to confound.

Employment has grown steadily from a low in Q1

2009 and net growth of 3,000 jobs appears surprising

given incomes pressures and rising costs of travel.

Many other tourist metrics do not support such a

favourable outcome and the prospect of data

revisions remains very significant (indeed in 2010 of

the 2,700 job increase 2,300 is in the notoriously

volatile self employment series). However the

emergence of lower cost restaurants, improvements

in the level of business travel from the depth of

recession lows have all provided a boost to demand.

Looking ahead, consolidation of the sectors gains

would be a positive outcome with only modest job

growth forecast over the 24 months ahead.

Pressures on incomes and falling demand from the

public sector (through conferences and other events)

are likely to take their toll on the sector. The areas of

the world economy growing strongly have less

cultural ties (and travel routes) to Northern Ireland (in

contrast to, for example, to the US) making the ‘sell’

tougher with what will undoubtedly be much smaller

budgets. The City of Culture 2013 should provide a

welcome boost and spill over from the Olympics may

also provide valuable demand for the sector

Employment/GVA Hotels

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

yea

r g

row

th)

Employment Hotels

GVA Hotels

Transport & communications (+2.4 yoy

2011)

Like the hotels sector, transport and communications

has performed remarkably well over the recession

with employment recording growth of over 3,000 in

net terms since the low point in mid 2007. Again the

self-employment data gives some cause for concern

(rising 1,700 in the last year) though a rise in the

number of self employed taxi drivers is a common

trend when other employment opportunities are at a

premium. The strong export content in the

communications sector, where Northern Ireland has a

number of internationally strong firms, will also have

helped boost the sector’s performance in 2010.

Steady employment growth is forecast through 2011

and 2012 as the global market continues to drive

demand.

Employment/GVA Transport & Comms.

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

yea

r g

row

th)

Employment T+C

GVA T+C

Financial services (+2.7% yoy 2011)

Employment has been broadly stable in the finance

sector through 2010, though it has returned to pre

boom employment levels. Despite ongoing problems

in the sector its ability to shed labour is limited. With

most high street banks focussed on improving

customer relations the need for staff remains strong.

Equally, rebuilding balance sheets and attracting

much needed new business requires skilled labour.

As a result the forecast is for very modest

employment growth. No return to peak employment

levels is forecast in short the short term. Many firms

at the national level in this sector are already

recording profits and the GDP fall was so precipitous

that growth is forecast in both 2011 and 2012.

Employment/GVA Financial

19

19

20

20

21

21

22


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

yea

r g

row

th)

Employment Financial

GVA Financial

Business services (+2.2% yoy 2011)

The loss in jobs in business services was more acute

in Northern Ireland than in other region, partly as

temporary staff where laid off across the economy

and partly due to downstream housing related

sectors such as solicitors and estate agents shedding

staff or closing. Quarter 3 2010 recorded a modest

increase in job numbers after 8 quarters of decline,

though again self employment data is a major factor

in this rise so caution is advised. The forecast for an

increase in employment is based primarily on the

opportunities in exported tradable services with a

number of notable inward investments in the sector

occurring even during the recessionary years. Legal

services, call centres, consultancy practices are all

part of this sector and global prospects remain strong

in these sub-sectors. However the contraction in

public sector spend will impact business services with

consultancy, accountancy, labour recruitment,

marketing and advertising all likely to suffer adversely

during the cuts period. The forecast for growth is very

modest with 2008 peaks not expected to be regained

until 2014 at the earliest.

Employment/GVA Business

75

80

85

90

95

100


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

yea

r g

row

th)

Employment Business

GVA Business

Public administration (-0.4% yoy 2011)

The employment data is already recording losses in

the public sector with Q3 the fourth consecutive

quarter of job loss after the Q3 2009 peak. This will

be only the start of a long and protracted decline with

the sector expected to fall below 55,000 employees

by mid 2012. This level of decline would be largely,

though not entirely, achievable through natural

wastage. The sector is expected to have a

contractionary affect on the economy throughout the

forecast period.

Employment/GVA Public Admin

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00's

)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

year

gro

wth

)

Employment Public Admin

GVA Public Admin

Education (+0.9% yoy 2011)

Employment data in education is highly seasonal with

the sharp fall in Q3 as expected. The sector reached

a record high in employment in Q1 2010, but this is

expected to mark the high tide mark from some time.

Though job losses will occur at a modest rate, given

the inherent ‘demand’ in the sector, the forecast is

that the sector will shed jobs through 2011 / 2012 as

the budget pressures begin to bite. There is limited

scope in Northern Ireland for the private education

sector to step in and create job opportunities and

opportunities for private tutors will be impacted by the

pressures on disposable income.

Employment/GVA Education

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

's)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

yea

r g

row

th)

Employment Education

GVA Education

Health (+1.1% yoy 2011)

Employment in health reached a new record high in

Q3 2010 at just over 125,000. This makes health

comfortably the largest sector in job terms in Northern

Ireland. Despite ongoing demographic pressures on

the sector from an aging population and rising birth

rates this is likely to represent the high point in

employment as the public sector squeeze begins to

feed through. Though employment is only projected

to fall modestly, the shift in the sector from a growing,

actively recruiting sector to one in contractionary

mode will have far reaching impacts with

opportunities for newly qualified staff at a premium. At

the time of writing contention over the Departmental

budget is threatening the entire budget process as

the Minister in charge attempts to wrestle with the

perennial health sector problem of persistent inflation.

Employment/GVA Health

116

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

126


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00's

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

year

gro

wth

)

Employment Health

GVA Health

Other personal services (+1.4% yoy 2011)

Despite a small contraction in other services

employment in Q3 the overall performance of the

sector during the recession has been impressive. The

sector employs 2,000 more people than at the

beginning of 2009 and it is estimated to have

returned to positive GVA growth in 2010. The

forecast for the sector is broadly positive as the build-

up to the UK City of Culture event and the Olympics

bring opportunities in the sporting and cultural sectors

(though the cancellation of most of the elite sports

facilities was a blow). The film industry has also

performed strongly, though employment can fluctuate

widely depending on the scale of local production at

any one time. At present expansion of the facilities at

the Paint Hall in Belfast is expected to proceed and

the potential exists for film and TV to become a more

significant export market for Northern Ireland. The

pressures on disposable income present a significant

downside risk however. The voluntary sector and the

wide range of consumer services covered in this

broad sectoral definition are likely to face very

challenging conditions in 2011 and 2012.

Employment/GVA Other Personal Services

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

's)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

GV

A (

% y

ear

on

yea

r g

row

th)

Employees Other Personal Services

GVA Other Personal Services

Wage inflation

There is little change in the wage inflation

environment since our last report, indeed pressures

have been muted for some time now as the scale of

the recession becomes clear. In the private sector

wage inflation is extremely modest and only

continued pay rises in the public sector hold the

overall index up. The apparent inability to control

public sector wages due to contractually committed

increments will help support overall wage inflation,

and those individuals in public service who retain

their job. It is unlikely that wage inflation will be a

significant issue in 2011 despite high inflation and

pressures on disposable incomes. The paucity of

opportunity in the labour market and the well

publicised extent and severity of the recession

appears to have had a profound effect on wage

bargaining across most of the private sector.

Unemployment

Unemployment continues to rise in Northern Ireland,

in contrast to almost everywhere else in the UK

where 2010 was a year of small, but sustained falls.

There is little prospect of unemployment falling in the

short term with very few job opportunities in the

labour market and the added pressure of job

shedding, or at least a recruitment freeze, in public

services. As a region with strong demographic

pressures and the possibility of welfare reform

moving many of the large pool of registered sick onto

the unemployment register, the possibility of

unemployment climbing sharply through the 100,000

mark cannot be ruled out. However unemployment

growth has been more modest in late 2010 than

expected with the register ending the year at 58,500

(seasonally adjusted), not above the 60,000 level as

expected earlier in the year. The rise in self

employment may be a factor in this, alongside

voluntary redundancy and early retirement schemes

to reduce head counts as opposed to compulsory

redundancies. It is unclear how significant migration

outflows have been, which would also reduce the

level of unemployment but this will certainly have had

at least a modest dampening effect.

With Northern Ireland needing at least 5,000 net jobs

per annum to ‘stand still’ in terms of absorbing the

labour market ‘on-flow’, the likelihood is that

unemployment will continue to climb through 2011

and at least part of 2012. Though the level could

easily top 75,000 our base forecast suggests that a

combination of increased incidence of self

employment, high levels of participation in education,

a limited out flow of migrants (particularly migrants

returning home as employment opportunities dry up)

will keep the register to 63,000 in 2011. This does not

make any allowance for transfers from other forms of

benefit.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Agriculture 35.3 35.1 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.3 36.1 36.8 37.6 38.4 38.7 39.1 39.5 39.8 39.7 39.9 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.1 40.1 40.1 40.1

Mining 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Manufacturing 93.1 92.7 93.3 93.1 93.1 93.5 92.7 90.2 87.8 85.4 84.0 83.9 83.2 83.7 84.1 84.1 84.9 85.1 86.1 85.9 86.0 85.8 85.8 85.6

Utilities 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Construction 72.7 74.0 75.3 77.6 77.4 77.1 74.6 71.6 68.2 65.7 64.8 64.0 63.9 63.7 61.8 62.7 63.2 63.9 63.5 63.3 63.2 63.4 63.4 63.4

Retail 142.4 143.2 144.0 151.5 148.1 148.8 147.6 149.4 142.5 140.6 139.2 146.0 141.3 140.0 139.5 142.4 140.8 141.6 141.9 146.1 142.9 143.2 144.1 146.7

Hotels 46.5 46.7 46.8 46.7 45.6 45.8 46.4 45.8 45.2 45.8 47.2 47.9 47.9 48.8 49.4 49.2 49.1 49.3 49.6 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.8

Transport & Communications 35.2 35.1 36.1 36.6 36.7 36.6 36.7 37.3 36.7 36.6 37.0 38.0 37.8 38.3 38.2 38.2 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.9 38.9 39.0

Financial Services 19.9 19.6 19.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.0 20.8 20.5 20.2 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.3

Business services, of which: 87.9 89.2 93.0 95.2 95.8 96.1 95.1 94.3 92.4 91.6 90.4 89.6 87.7 87.3 88.5 88.1 87.9 88.3 88.5 89.1 89.2 90.2 90.4 90.0

Legal 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5

Accounting 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

Real estate 10.2 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.6 9.0 8.8 8.8

Rest of business services 66.3 67.7 70.7 72.7 73.4 73.9 73.3 72.8 71.2 70.2 69.3 68.7 67.5 67.0 67.9 67.5 67.6 67.7 68.1 68.5 68.8 69.2 69.5 69.1

Public admin & defence 58.8 58.9 58.3 58.6 58.8 58.5 58.4 58.9 59.2 59.0 59.6 59.4 59.2 58.8 58.0 57.7 57.5 57.2 56.7 56.2 55.7 55.2 54.7 54.2

Education 75.3 75.2 71.4 73.4 74.5 74.4 70.1 74.7 76.8 76.3 73.1 76.8 77.7 77.3 73.8 76.9 76.5 76.1 74.5 75.8 75.7 75.6 73.6 75.8

Health 122.3 122.7 123.4 122.7 123.2 122.8 122.3 122.6 121.9 122.5 124.2 124.3 125.0 124.8 125.3 125.1 125.0 125.0 124.9 124.8 124.7 124.4 124.2 124.0

Other personal services 42.5 42.1 42.4 42.1 42.2 42.9 42.4 41.8 41.4 42.0 42.5 42.9 43.3 44.4 43.8 44.0 44.3 44.6 44.8 45.0 45.0 45.1 45.5 45.9

Total (1) 840.9 843.6 847.8 861.6 859.7 861.1 851.4 852.3 838.3 832.2 828.6 839.7 834.2 834.6 829.9 836.0 835.4 837.4 837.0 842.2 838.2 838.9 837.9 842.2

(1) Note: Includes HMF forces

Year on Year Growth (%)

Agriculture -3.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 0.6 3.0 4.9 7.3 8.8 7.4 6.2 4.9 3.9 2.6 2.0 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Mining 6.6 5.1 4.1 -4.1 -6.6 -8.8 -8.4 -9.5 -11.4 -11.6 -16.4 -8.9 -8.0 -6.0 -1.2 -1.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.9 -1.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7

Manufacturing -3.1 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 0.0 0.8 -0.7 -3.0 -5.7 -8.6 -9.3 -7.1 -5.2 -2.0 0.2 0.3 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.8 -0.3 -0.3

Utilities 3.7 3.3 2.2 -28.6 -29.5 -32.3 -31.7 -1.5 -3.5 -3.1 -3.6 -6.6 -2.1 0.0 2.7 6.0 2.7 -1.4 -4.3 -7.1 -6.0 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2

Construction 0.9 3.6 4.9 7.2 6.5 4.3 -1.0 -7.7 -11.9 -14.8 -13.2 -10.6 -6.3 -3.1 -4.6 -2.1 -1.1 0.3 2.8 1.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 0.1

Retail 3.1 3.3 2.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 2.5 -1.4 -3.8 -5.5 -5.7 -2.2 -0.9 -0.5 0.3 -2.5 -0.3 1.2 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.5 0.4

Hotels -0.3 -1.8 -1.2 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 -0.8 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 1.8 4.5 6.0 6.5 4.7 2.8 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.1 0.7

Transport & Communications -5.2 -7.0 -1.6 1.3 4.2 4.4 1.4 1.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.4 3.3 0.6 1.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.8

Financial Services -3.7 -3.5 -1.0 6.1 6.3 8.5 6.3 -0.7 -3.1 -5.1 -5.6 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 -0.3 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0

Business services, of which: 6.4 8.3 10.7 9.6 9.0 7.7 2.2 -0.9 -3.5 -4.7 -5.0 -5.0 -5.1 -4.6 -2.0 -1.7 0.2 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.0

Legal 2.7 5.7 8.8 7.9 11.9 10.2 4.2 0.0 -3.5 -5.2 -5.8 -5.2 -5.3 -4.7 -1.6 -2.3 0.6 1.3 -0.1 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.0

Accounting 5.1 8.1 11.3 10.4 11.9 10.2 4.2 0.0 -3.5 -5.2 -5.8 -5.2 -4.8 -4.2 -1.3 -2.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.2

Real estate 5.7 1.7 3.9 1.1 -5.6 -4.7 -9.7 -9.3 -7.1 -1.5 -0.7 0.2 -4.4 -4.7 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 0.8 -1.4 -0.9 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.9

Rest of business services 6.9 9.6 11.8 11.0 10.7 9.1 3.6 0.0 -3.1 -5.0 -5.4 -5.6 -5.2 -4.6 -2.0 -1.6 0.2 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.0

Public admin & defence -2.4 -2.0 -2.6 -1.1 0.0 -0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 2.1 1.0 0.1 -0.3 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7 -2.2 -2.7 -3.1 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6

Education -0.9 -0.3 -1.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.1 -1.7 1.9 3.1 2.6 4.3 2.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 -1.5 -1.1 -0.7 -1.3 -0.1

Health 1.9 2.2 1.7 0.1 0.8 0.1 -0.9 0.0 -1.1 -0.3 1.6 1.4 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6

Other personal services -1.8 -3.8 -2.1 -1.9 -0.7 1.9 0.1 -0.8 -1.8 -2.1 0.4 2.8 4.7 5.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 0.5 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.9

Total 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.1 0.4 -1.1 -2.5 -3.4 -2.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

Table 3: Employment (000's)

2011 20122009 20102007 2008


Agriculture 431 414 389 366 325 305 305 305 307 306 310 314 325 329 326 326 331 332 326 327 334 341 337 338

Mining 193 201 192 180 170 161 151 137 119 109 108 111 118 120 117 115 112 110 107 105 103 100 99 99

Manufacturing 4147 4190 4182 4158 4173 4161 4098 3997 3801 3702 3717 3762 3811 3870 3932 3981 3989 4023 4062 4112 4144 4167 4184 4235

Utilities 573 562 560 530 561 558 505 454 364 314 305 295 290 280 280 280 278 273 274 275 276 277 278 279

Construction 2194 2212 2203 2214 2227 2183 2094 1992 1817 1730 1714 1701 1714 1726 1692 1729 1759 1796 1764 1791 1817 1874 1845 1854

Retail 3476 3501 3456 3521 3381 3337 3330 3372 3246 3229 3238 3383 3374 3385 3388 3445 3424 3447 3456 3532 3516 3551 3568 3651

Hotels 752 766 768 768 750 753 765 762 757 768 785 793 800 811 821 822 825 830 834 833 841 850 856 856

Transport & Communications 1382 1408 1426 1432 1433 1425 1417 1421 1383 1371 1380 1402 1404 1420 1427 1432 1444 1455 1462 1463 1479 1501 1511 1521

Financial Services 1177 1188 1192 1223 1247 1252 1237 1225 1202 1187 1173 1171 1160 1157 1159 1169 1182 1191 1196 1199 1218 1229 1242 1252

Business services, of which: 3462 3558 3615 3638 3690 3673 3596 3521 3370 3295 3271 3255 3195 3187 3226 3228 3235 3243 3295 3355 3366 3392 3453 3500

Legal 338 350 358 364 370 369 363 356 338 329 327 328 320 319 325 325 326 327 333 339 341 343 350 354

Accounting 245 253 259 264 268 267 263 258 245 239 237 238 233 232 236 236 237 238 243 247 249 250 255 258

Real estate 402 393 393 377 371 358 345 334 326 333 329 325 311 313 313 315 306 301 298 304 299 305 310 317

Rest of business services 2476 2562 2605 2633 2681 2678 2625 2574 2461 2395 2379 2363 2331 2323 2353 2352 2366 2377 2421 2464 2477 2494 2538 2571

Public admin & defence 2496 2493 2461 2457 2406 2385 2406 2444 2513 2531 2526 2521 2518 2532 2516 2519 2510 2525 2510 2494 2478 2497 2484 2470

Education 2030 2023 1938 1984 1995 1994 1906 2026 2087 2088 2011 2103 2123 2115 2037 2130 2134 2138 2046 2154 2152 2150 2038 2160

Health 2567 2591 2627 2636 2676 2691 2702 2731 2739 2773 2808 2810 2822 2819 2837 2842 2863 2858 2862 2866 2886 2871 2884 2897

Other personal services 1062 1069 1070 1062 1064 1075 1068 1059 1050 1065 1066 1064 1068 1080 1070 1067 1071 1091 1090 1092 1099 1116 1121 1128

Total 27273 27506 27427 27531 27467 27337 27002 26907 26282 26034 25989 26273 26312 26435 26442 26707 26785 26950 26941 27272 27400 27608 27614 27976

Ownership of dwellings 1330 1330 1347 1363 1367 1384 1422 1460 1526 1565 1576 1587 1592 1603 1613 1623 1627 1637 1655 1673 1690 1691 1713 1736


Agriculture -9.0 -11.2 -13.9 -16.4 -24.7 -26.4 -21.6 -16.7 -5.3 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.8 7.5 5.0 3.7 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 3.1 3.3

Mining 23.1 28.2 17.5 5.6 -12.0 -19.9 -21.4 -23.7 -30.2 -32.5 -28.2 -19.6 -1.0 10.2 8.1 4.0 -4.9 -8.4 -8.2 -8.4 -7.6 -8.7 -7.6 -6.5

Manufacturing 3.8 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.6 -0.7 -2.0 -3.9 -8.9 -11.0 -9.3 -5.9 0.3 4.5 5.8 5.8 4.7 4.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 3.6 3.0 3.0

Utilities -5.8 -6.6 -5.4 -9.0 -2.0 -0.8 -9.8 -14.5 -35.1 -43.8 -39.7 -34.9 -20.5 -10.7 -8.0 -5.0 -3.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.9 -1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6

Construction -0.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 1.5 -1.3 -4.9 -10.0 -18.4 -20.7 -18.2 -14.6 -5.7 -0.2 -1.3 1.6 2.6 4.0 4.3 3.6 3.3 4.4 4.6 3.5

Retail 4.8 4.8 2.5 1.5 -2.7 -4.7 -3.7 -4.2 -4.0 -3.3 -2.8 0.3 3.9 4.8 4.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4

Hotels 6.0 6.6 5.5 3.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.8 0.9 2.0 2.7 4.0 5.6 5.5 4.6 3.6 3.1 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.8

Transport & Communications 4.0 4.7 5.3 4.4 3.7 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -3.5 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 1.5 3.6 3.4 2.2 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.3 4.0

Financial Services 4.6 5.1 4.5 5.9 6.0 5.4 3.8 0.2 -3.6 -5.2 -5.2 -4.4 -3.5 -2.5 -1.2 -0.2 1.9 3.0 3.2 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.4

Business services, of which: 15.7 15.5 13.5 9.8 6.6 3.2 -0.5 -3.2 -8.7 -10.3 -9.0 -7.6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.4 -0.8 1.2 1.8 2.2 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.3

Legal 11.9 12.8 11.7 8.2 9.4 5.5 1.4 -2.2 -8.6 -10.8 -9.8 -7.8 -5.4 -3.1 -0.7 -1.1 1.9 2.5 2.7 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.3

Accounting 14.5 15.5 14.3 10.7 9.4 5.5 1.4 -2.2 -8.6 -10.8 -9.8 -7.8 -4.9 -2.6 -0.4 -0.8 1.7 2.5 2.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.6

Real estate 15.1 8.6 6.6 1.4 -7.7 -8.7 -12.1 -11.3 -12.0 -7.2 -4.9 -2.5 -4.5 -5.9 -4.9 -3.2 -1.8 -3.9 -4.6 -3.5 -2.3 1.4 3.9 4.3

Rest of business services 16.4 17.0 14.8 11.3 8.3 4.5 0.8 -2.3 -8.2 -10.6 -9.4 -8.2 -5.3 -3.0 -1.1 -0.5 1.5 2.3 2.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.3

Public admin & defence -2.8 -2.0 -2.7 -2.0 -3.6 -4.3 -2.2 -0.5 4.4 6.1 5.0 3.2 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0

Education -1.4 -0.8 -1.7 -0.6 -1.7 -1.4 -1.7 2.1 4.6 4.7 5.5 3.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 -0.4 0.3

Health 4.4 5.0 4.8 3.6 4.2 3.9 2.9 3.6 2.3 3.0 3.9 2.9 3.0 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1

Other personal services 3.3 3.3 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.9 3.3

Total 3.5 3.8 2.9 2.1 0.7 -0.6 -1.6 -2.3 -4.3 -4.8 -3.8 -2.4 0.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6

Ownership of dwellings 0.1 -1.2 0.0 1.2 2.8 4.0 5.6 7.1 11.6 13.1 10.9 8.7 4.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.8

Table 2: GVA (£m2006)

2011 20122007 2008 2009 2010


Unemployment 25.3 24.4 24.3 22.7 24.4 24.9 28.8 33.3 42.8 47.1 52.8 52.8 56.6 56.8 58.2 58.4 60.5 62.7 63.0 63.3 63.7 64.0 64.0 64.1

Wage inflation 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4


Unemployment -10.0 -12.5 -10.0 -13.3 -3.3 2.2 18.5 46.9 75.3 88.8 83.4 58.6 32.1 20.7 10.2 10.6 7.0 10.4 8.3 8.5 5.1 2.0 1.6 1.2

Table 4: Other variables

20122011201020092007 2008


Agriculture 431 414 389 366 325 305 305 305 307 306 310 314 325 329 326 326 331 332 326 327 334 341 337 338

Mining 193 201 192 180 170 161 151 137 119 109 108 111 118 120 117 115 112 110 107 105 103 100 99 99

Manufacturing 4147 4190 4182 4158 4173 4161 4098 3997 3801 3702 3717 3762 3811 3870 3932 3981 3989 4023 4062 4112 4144 4167 4184 4235

Utilities 573 562 560 530 561 558 505 454 364 314 305 295 290 280 280 280 278 273 274 275 276 277 278 279

Construction 2194 2212 2203 2214 2227 2183 2094 1992 1817 1730 1714 1701 1714 1726 1692 1729 1759 1796 1764 1791 1817 1874 1845 1854

Retail 3476 3501 3456 3521 3381 3337 3330 3372 3246 3229 3238 3383 3374 3385 3388 3445 3424 3447 3456 3532 3516 3551 3568 3651

Hotels 752 766 768 768 750 753 765 762 757 768 785 793 800 811 821 822 825 830 834 833 841 850 856 856

Transport & Communications 1382 1408 1426 1432 1433 1425 1417 1421 1383 1371 1380 1402 1404 1420 1427 1432 1444 1455 1462 1463 1479 1501 1511 1521

Financial Services 1177 1188 1192 1223 1247 1252 1237 1225 1202 1187 1173 1171 1160 1157 1159 1169 1182 1191 1196 1199 1218 1229 1242 1252

Business services, of which: 3462 3558 3615 3638 3690 3673 3596 3521 3370 3295 3271 3255 3195 3187 3226 3228 3235 3243 3295 3355 3366 3392 3453 3500

Legal 338 350 358 364 370 369 363 356 338 329 327 328 320 319 325 325 326 327 333 339 341 343 350 354

Accounting 245 253 259 264 268 267 263 258 245 239 237 238 233 232 236 236 237 238 243 247 249 250 255 258

Real estate 402 393 393 377 371 358 345 334 326 333 329 325 311 313 313 315 306 301 298 304 299 305 310 317

Rest of business services 2476 2562 2605 2633 2681 2678 2625 2574 2461 2395 2379 2363 2331 2323 2353 2352 2366 2377 2421 2464 2477 2494 2538 2571

Public admin & defence 2496 2493 2461 2457 2406 2385 2406 2444 2513 2531 2526 2521 2518 2532 2516 2519 2510 2525 2510 2494 2478 2497 2484 2470

Education 2030 2023 1938 1984 1995 1994 1906 2026 2087 2088 2011 2103 2123 2115 2037 2130 2134 2138 2046 2154 2152 2150 2038 2160

Health 2567 2591 2627 2636 2676 2691 2702 2731 2739 2773 2808 2810 2822 2819 2837 2842 2863 2858 2862 2866 2886 2871 2884 2897

Other personal services 1062 1069 1070 1062 1064 1075 1068 1059 1050 1065 1066 1064 1068 1080 1070 1067 1071 1091 1090 1092 1099 1116 1121 1128

Total 27273 27506 27427 27531 27467 27337 27002 26907 26282 26034 25989 26273 26312 26435 26442 26707 26785 26950 26941 27272 27400 27608 27614 27976

Ownership of dwellings 1330 1330 1347 1363 1367 1384 1422 1460 1526 1565 1576 1587 1592 1603 1613 1623 1627 1637 1655 1673 1690 1691 1713 1736

GVA

Quarter on Quarter growth (%)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Agriculture -1.6 -4.0 -5.9 -5.9 -11.4 -6.2 0.3 -0.1 0.7 -0.4 1.3 1.3 3.4 1.2 -1.0 0.0 1.4 0.5 -1.8 0.2 2.1 2.2 -1.4 0.5

Mining 13.3 3.8 -4.3 -6.2 -5.6 -5.5 -6.1 -9.0 -13.7 -8.5 -0.2 2.0 6.3 1.8 -2.1 -1.8 -2.8 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -3.1 -0.8 -0.8

Manufacturing 1.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.5 -2.5 -4.9 -2.6 0.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.2

Utilities -1.7 -1.8 -0.5 -5.2 5.9 -0.6 -9.5 -10.2 -19.7 -13.9 -2.9 -3.1 -1.8 -3.4 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3

Construction 0.0 0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.6 -2.0 -4.1 -4.9 -8.8 -4.8 -1.0 -0.7 0.7 0.7 -2.0 2.2 1.8 2.1 -1.8 1.5 1.5 3.1 -1.5 0.5

Retail 0.2 0.7 -1.3 1.9 -4.0 -1.3 -0.2 1.3 -3.7 -0.5 0.3 4.5 -0.3 0.3 0.1 1.7 -0.6 0.7 0.3 2.2 -0.5 1.0 0.5 2.3

Hotels 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 -2.3 0.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.7 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.0

Transport & Communications 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 -2.7 -0.9 0.7 1.5 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.6

Financial Services 2.0 1.0 0.3 2.5 2.0 0.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.9 -0.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.8 1.1 0.8

Business services, of which: 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.6 1.4 -0.5 -2.1 -2.1 -4.3 -2.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.8 -0.2 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.4

Legal 0.6 3.4 2.3 1.8 1.7 -0.3 -1.8 -1.8 -4.9 -2.6 -0.7 0.4 -2.5 -0.2 1.7 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.7 1.8 1.2

Accounting 2.9 3.4 2.3 1.8 1.7 -0.3 -1.8 -1.8 -4.9 -2.6 -0.7 0.4 -2.0 -0.3 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.7 1.9 1.3

Real estate 8.2 -2.3 0.1 -4.2 -1.6 -3.3 -3.6 -3.3 -2.3 2.0 -1.2 -1.0 -4.3 0.5 -0.1 0.8 -2.9 -1.7 -0.8 1.9 -1.8 2.0 1.7 2.3

Rest of business services 4.6 3.5 1.7 1.1 1.8 -0.1 -2.0 -2.0 -4.4 -2.7 -0.7 -0.6 -1.4 -0.3 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.7 1.8 1.3

Public admin & defence -0.4 -0.2 -1.3 -0.2 -2.1 -0.9 0.9 1.6 2.8 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 -0.5 -0.5

Education 1.7 -0.4 -4.2 2.4 0.6 -0.1 -4.4 6.3 3.1 0.0 -3.7 4.6 1.0 -0.4 -3.7 4.5 0.2 0.2 -4.3 5.3 -0.1 -0.1 -5.2 6.0

Health 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 -0.5 0.4 0.4

Other personal services 1.3 0.6 0.1 -0.8 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.4 0.1 -0.2 0.3 1.1 -0.9 -0.4 0.5 1.8 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.6

Total 1.1 0.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -1.2 -0.4 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.3

Ownership of dwellings -1.2 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.3 1.2 2.8 2.7 4.5 2.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.3 1.3

2011 20122007 2008 2009 2010

Table 1: GVA (£m2006)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Annex A: Sectoral definitions

No. Sector SIC code

1 Agriculture & Fishing - includes the growing of crops and fruits, the farming of animals, agricultural services and forestry and fishing related activities

01-05

2 Extraction - includes mining and extraction of coal and metal ores, quarrying activities and service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction

10-14

3-15

Manufacturing - includes manufacturing of food, drink and tobacco, textiles and leather, wood and wood products, pulp, paper and printing coke, oil refining and nuclear, chemicals, rubber and plastic products, other mineral products, metals, machinery and equipment nec, electrical and optical equipment, transport equipment and manufacturing nec.

15-37

16 Electricity, Gas & Water - includes the production and transmission of electricity, gas and water,

40-41

17 Construction - includes construction of buildings, transport infrastructure e.g. roads and railways and trades activities including plumbing, plastering, joinery etc.

45

18 Distribution & Retailing - includes sales agent, wholesale and retail activities

50-52

19 Hotels & Catering - includes restaurants, short stay accommodation including hostels and camping sites, public houses and other catering services such as airline catering and banqueting catering

55

20 Transport & Communications - includes activity of land, air and sea transport operators along with travel agencies and postal and telecommunications businesses

60-64

21 Financial Intermediation - includes financial institutions such as banks, building societies, financial leasing, insurance companies, mortgage finance companies and fund management activities

65-67

22 Business Services - includes rental services, management and consultancy activities, accounting and legal services, market research, secretarial and translation activities

70-74

23

Public Admin. & Defence - includes general overall public service activities including regulation of the bodies providing public services such as health. It includes defence, fire service, social security and justice and judicial activities

75

24 Education - includes all levels of education from primary through to higher and also includes driving school activities and activities of private training providers

80

25 Health & Social Work - all medical activities including hospital activities, dentists and opticians. It also includes medical nursing home activities, veterinary activities along with social work activities

85

26 Other Personal Services - activities of religious and political organisations, museum activities, entertainment facilities, hair and beauty treatments and washing and dry cleaning services

90-99

Northern Bank / Oxford Economics Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Quarter 1 2011

Northern Bank Limited. Registered in Northern Ireland No:R568. Registered Office : Donegall Square West, Belfast BT1 6JS Northern Bank Limited is a member of Danske Bank Group www.northernbank.co.uk This is the opinion of Northern Bank, on occasion based upon research conducted at the time and obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This may be subject to change without notice and is not a personal recommendation.

northern bank / oxford economics quarterly sectoral ...€¦ · q3 2009 -0.1 -4.9 q4 2009 0.6 -2.4...

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