northern shrimp outlook 2018 - oregon trawl commission · 2018. 3. 16. · shrimp processing...

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Northern Shrimp Outlook 2018

John Sackton Seafood Datasearch

Oregon March 8, 2018

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Background • 40 Years in Seafood Industry

• Crab, shrimp and lobster market analyst since 1997

• Preseason price and market outlooks on shrimp, crab, lobster – US West Coast, Atlantic Canada, Alaska

• Price arbitrator for Alaska crab

• Shrimp Analyst for NFI

• Co-Founder of NFI’s Global Seafood Market Conference

• Publisher of Seafood.com News

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Long term supply outlook

• Global supply of pandalus on long term decline

• However year to year changes are variable

• Market concern is what is available today

• West coast shrimp governed by different factors

• Recruitment variable in short term

• Long term outlook for ocean regime shifts

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Global Fishing Areas Pandalus

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Global borealis landings may have stabilized with increases in Greenland and Barents Sea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est 2018

Global Landings of Pandalus borealis May Have Stabilized

North Sea Barents Iceland Greenland W greenland East Skagerrak Canada Norwayest

Seafood Datasearch Estimates and ICWPF

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Picture is the same including P. jordani

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est 2018

Global Landings of Pandalus borealis Have Stabilized

North Sea Barents Iceland Greenland W greenland East Skagerrak Canada Norway West Coastest

Seafood Datasearch Estimates and ICWPF

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Dr. Carsten Hvingel

Head of Research Section

Benthic Resources and Processes

Institute of Marine Research, Norway

Northeast Atlantic Catches stabilizing; Western Atlantic Declines will continue

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Volume in Canada and on US West Coast have most impact on Oregon Shrimp

• Canadian exports to US are mostly larger size shrimp.

• Prices of larger shrimp are likely to be higher this year due to cuts in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

• Volume of US landings is still not known.

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10-15% Decline expected in Newfoundland area 6

• 2018 biomass 86 K tons; at 10% exploitation quota would be 8600 tons vs 11625 tons in 2017

• Quota is not set, most expect 10-15% decline.

• Area 5 is mostly stable, mostly offshore shrimp

• Some industrial offshore production flowing to NL shrimp processing plants.

NL area 6:

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Gulf will see big reduction of 35% to 40%

• Major reduction in Sept Iles and Anticosti

• Both areas land large size shrimp - 90-125 100-150

• Quebec also biggest seller of Canadian shrimp to US

Sept Iles Anticosti

Net result: higher prices for large size shrimp, less Canadian

shrimp to the US in 2018

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West Coast and Oregon Supply

• West coast in low supply cycle

• Size trend may (??) be more favorable in 2018

• Lower volumes mean less exports, more domestic shrimp market share going to US customers

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Coast wide historical landings and yearly avg price

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$0.80

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

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25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Met

ric

ton

s

State Pink Shrimp Landings

Calif Ore Wash Calif Price Ore Price Wash Price

Pacfin Data

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Prior declines in landings have not been reversed after 1-2 yrs

Groth, S., M. Blume, K. Lawrence, J. Smith, and C. Good. 2018. 29th Annual Pink Shrimp Review.

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For 2018 volume could be similar to 2017; Size is questionable

• Shrimp report says survival of multiple year classes is moderate, suggesting a fishery on mixed ages and larger overall size.

• But the Fall Survey failed to confirm this, so fishery might open on age 0 and 1; smallest size shrimp

Forecast from annual

pink shrimp report


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Summary

• Global landings stable for 2018

• West Coast Landings likely similar or slightly improved from last year.

• Changes may occur in size distribution

• Less large size Pandalus from Canada

• Possible (??) improved size on US West Coast

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Cooked and peeled coldwater shrimp prices rose in 2nd half of 2017

• Lowest pricing for the year was last spring, just prior to the 2017 season.

• Prices recovered from mid-year.

• But spread between smallest and largest size increased substantially.

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Icelandic Prices to UK Show Recovery but weakness on smallest size

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Iceland Double Fzn Price per Pound in UK £

100-200 250-350 500-800

100-200

250-350

500-800

Seafood Datasearch

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US Imported P. borealis pricing

Price spread has increased on larger sizes

This trend may be more pronounced in 2018

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Exports Declined along with landings

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Po

un

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Cooked and Peeled Shrimp Exports

Canada China Denmark Netherlands Sweden Other Europe Other Asia Other

Seafood Datasearch: US Customs, West Coast Ports

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Exports of head-on fzn continue

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Shell on Exports

Denmark China Iceland Japan Other Europe Other

Seafood Datasearch: US Customs, West Coast Ports

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Total Exports compared to landings (shell on wgt)

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

po

un

ds

Exports as Percent of Live Landings

pounds Total exports

Seafood Datasearch

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US has been the most consistent Market for Canada

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

UK US DK Other Europe Asia

Kil

ogr

ams

Canadian Exports C&P by Country

2014 2,015 2016 2017

Seafood Datasearch, Intracen

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Total Canadian Exports Declining

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2014 2,015 2016 2017

Total Exports Declining as Landings Fall

UK US DK Other Europe Asia

Seafood Datasearch, Intracen

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Canadian Exports by State

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017

po

un

ds

Canadian Exports by State

Massachusetts California Florida Maine

Virginia Michigan Others

Most CA exports from Quebec; Reduction in Gulf will

have impact in 2018 Seafood Datasearch, Intracen

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Ex- Vessel Prices declined in 2017

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pacfin Report on Shrimp Prices by State

C O W

Pacfin data

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Oregon Price and Volume by Month

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

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0

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April May June July August September October November

Po

un

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Oregon Pounds Oregon Price

Pacfin data

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Size is important component of average price

• In 2017, market prices were lowest just at the time the new Oregon season was opening.

• Prices recovered in the 2nd half of the year

• The smallest size shrimp had the greatest price weakness, and the slowest recovery

• For 2018 size will be the critical factor in determining value, as no significant market changes are expected.

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Macro Factors for Coldwater Shrimp

• Export markets will be less important for US producers

• More expensive Canadian shrimp will provide market opportunity for domestic shrimp.

• Size will still be a factor. Some users (especially of Canadian Shrimp) may drop sizes that are too expensive.

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Recruitment outlook is moderate


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Count per lb.

“we do expect count issues

could arise early on in the season,

depending on fishing effort.

Age 2 and 3 volumes are not

expected to be on par with recent years

based on the low catch rates at the

end of 2017. If age 1 shrimp become

the target of the fishery earlier,

count issues could arise”

131 per lb


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Prices reflect both mkt demand and size

2015 had both strong

market demand and the

second largest average

size shrimp in the past 9

years.

2015

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Summary

• 2018 will see a wider gap in value between 250-350 count shrimp and smaller 300-500 and 500-800 shrimp.

• Any changes in market pricing from 2017 are more likely to occur on larger sizes: 125-175, 150-250 and 250-350.

• Any strategy to maximize the size of shrimp harvested will return the most value.

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US Market for Shrimp was very healthy in 2017

• The overall US market for shrimp was very healthy in 2017.

• Shrimp continues to be one of the best values among seafood products.

• 2017 saw record US imports of shrimp; consumption likely near record as well.

• Coldwater shrimp benefits from the overall buoyancy of this market.

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Foodservice sales of all shrimp grew

Seafood Datasearch: NFI Global Seafood Market Conf

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Sales of Coldwater Shrimp Fell

• Industry reports suggest Foodservice volume fell around 9%; likely due to lower harvest.

• At the same time, prices rose over 2016.

• Coldwater share of foodservice shrimp could be as small as 0.4%

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Retail sales of warm water shrimp increased

Household penetration measures how many households make at least one grocery purchase of the product in a year.

Rising household penetration indicates higher sales.


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One factor was a shift from crab to shrimp at retail


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Overall US imports grew to a record level

Seafood Datasearch: US customs

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Global warm water shrimp producton will continue growing


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West Coast Shrimp equaled 1/3 volume of Gulf shrimp in 2017

West coast shrimp landings: 33.36 million pounds Seafood Datasearch

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Shrimp price volatility at a record low

This makes it very difficult for shrimp importers

to make money

Seafood Datasearch and Urner Barry Publications

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Margins are Squeezed for Headless shrimp

Sales costs are closer to replacement costs

Difference is shrinking


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Cooked and Peeled show same pattern

This is the same chart but for cooked and peeled shrimp

Margins are lowering here also


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Restaurant sentiment has been improving

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Something will change in warm water shrimp market

• The volatility and margin charts show that something will have to change.

• Either overseas prices can decrease –

• Or US prices can go up.

• But when this might happen, or what direction it might go, is unknown.

• My own feeling is that further growth in global supply will bring down prices.

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Conclusions • Stability appears to be the watch word

for 2018 in shrimp.

• Both coldwater and warmwater shrimp outlooks do not show anything pushing for significant change.

• Challenge for 2018 will be to increase the value of coldwater shrimp within their category.

– Two advantages are domestic production and an expected fall off in Canadian imports

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Thank you

• Time for Questions

northern shrimp outlook 2018 - oregon trawl commission · 2018. 3. 16. · shrimp processing...

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