norwegian labour market development may 2008
DESCRIPTION
Norwegian Labour market development May 2008. GDP growth: 6% in 2007. Total oil investment reaches 130 billion NOK in 2008. Decreasing activity in the building sector?. New buildings in progress, Areal (1000m2). Trend Jan 2001 - Feb 2008. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Norwegian Labour market development May 2008
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 2
GDP growth: 6% in 2007Annual GDP growth in mainland Norway. 1996-2007
0,0 %
1,0 %
2,0 %
3,0 %
4,0 %
5,0 %
6,0 %
7,0 %
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GDP growth Average GDP growth 1971-2006
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 3
Total oil investment reaches 130 billion NOK in 2008
Oil investments (Million NOK). Accrued Investment costs 1996-2007. Estimated costs 2008.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 4
Decreasing activity in the building sector?
0,00
100,00
200,00
300,00
400,00
500,00
600,00
700,00
800,00
jan.0
1
apr.0
1jul
.01
okt.0
1
jan.0
2
apr.0
2jul
.02
okt.0
2
jan.0
3
apr.0
3jul
.03
okt.0
3
jan.0
4
apr.0
4jul
.04
okt.0
4
jan.0
5
apr.0
5jul
.05
okt.0
5
jan.0
6
apr.0
6jul
.06
okt.0
6
jan.0
7
apr.0
7jul
.07
okt.0
7
jan.0
8
Total Houses Other buildings
New buildings in progress, Areal (1000m2). Trend Jan 2001 - Feb 2008
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 5
Labour Force and employment. 1997 –February 2008. Seasonally adjusted from the Labour Force Survey.
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
feb.
97
jun.
97
okt.9
7
feb.
98
jun.
98
okt.9
8
feb.
99
jun.
99
okt.9
9
feb.
00
jun.
00
okt.0
0
feb.
01
jun.
01
okt.0
1
feb.
02
jun.
02
okt.0
2
feb.
03
jun.
03
okt.0
3
feb.
04
jun.
04
okt.0
4
feb.
05
jun.
05
okt.0
5
feb.
06
jun.
06
okt.0
6
feb.
07
jun.
07
okt.0
7
feb.
08
1000
per
son
s
Labour force Employed
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 6
Labour force participation 2000 – 2007.16(15) – 74 years.
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Men Women Total
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 7
Employed persons aged 60 – 74 in per cent of the total population aged 60 – 74. 2000 – 2006.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
År
Total Men Women
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 8
Unemployment development
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
jan.9
8
mai.
98
sep.
98
jan.9
9
mai.
99
sep.
99
jan.0
0
mai.
00
sep.
00
jan.0
1
mai.
01
sep.
01
jan.0
2
mai.
02
sep.
02
jan.0
3
mai.
03
sep.
03
jan.0
4
mai.
04
sep.
04
jan.0
5
mai.
05
sep.
05
jan.0
6
mai.
06
sep.
06
jan.0
7
mai.
07
sep.
07
jan.0
8
Registered unemployed and persons on measures Registered unemployed Unemployed according to the LFS (AKU)
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 9
Labour market tightness
Inflow of public announced vacancies per workday and inflow of jobseekers per workday. Jan 2001 – April 2008. Trend
450
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Infl
ow
vac
anci
es
300
400500
600
700800
900
1000
11001200
1300
Infl
ow
jo
bse
eker
s
Inflow of public announced vacancies per workday Inflow of jobseekers per workday
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 10
Largest net immigration ever in 2007
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 11
Decreasing unemployment in all regionsPercentage change in registered unemployment by region, April 2004 – April 2008.
-52 %
-58 % -58 %
-47 %
-54 %-56 %
-59 % -58 %
-63 %-61 %
-71 %
-57 %
-69 %-66 %
-50 % -49 %-51 %
-48 %
-44 %
-57 %
-80 %
-70 %
-60 %
-50 %
-40 %
-30 %
-20 %
-10 %
0 %
Østfold
Akers
hus
Oslo
Hedm
ark
Opplan
d
Buske
rud
Vestfo
ld
Telem
ark
Aust-A
gder
Vest-A
gder
Rogala
nd
Horda
land
Sogn
og F
jorda
ne
Møre
og
Romsd
al
Sør-Trø
ndela
g
Nord-
Trønd
elag
Nordla
nd
Trom
s
Finnm
ark
Total
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 12
Largest unemployment rate for young menRegistered unemployed in percentage of the labour force. Age and sex, April 2008.
0,9 %
2,0 %2,2 %
1,8 %
1,2 %
0,9 %
1,9 %
1,5 %1,4 %
3,1 %
2,4 %
1,7 %
1,3 %1,1 %
1,8 %1,7 %
0,0 %
0,5 %
1,0 %
1,5 %
2,0 %
2,5 %
3,0 %
3,5 %
19 yearsand less
20-24years
25-29years
30-39years
40-49years
50-59years
60 yearsor more
Total
Women Men
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 13
Unemployment by level of education, August 2007
3,3 %
1,5 %1,3 %
0,9 %
2,0 %
0,0 %
0,5 %
1,0 %
1,5 %
2,0 %
2,5 %
3,0 %
3,5 %
4,0 %
4,5 %
5,0 %
Primary school Secondaryschool, all levels
Tertiaryeducation, short
Tertiaryeducation, long
Total
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 14
Man labour years lost in the ordinary production due to poor health.Actual figures 1992 – 2007, forecast 2008 - 2030
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
Man labour yearssickness absence
Man labour yearsvocationally disabled
Man labour yearsrehailitation
Man labour yearsdisabled
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 15
Expected age of retirement at the age of 50, 1986 – 2006.
Expected age of retirement at the age of 50
62,0
62,5
63,0
63,5
64,0
64,5
65,0
Exp
ecte
d a
ge
of
reti
rein
g
Total Women Men
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 16
Persons taking early retirement (AFP) in per cent of all entitled to early retirement
30 %
32 %
34 %
36 %
38 %
40 %
42 %
44 %
46 %
48 %
50 %
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
total women men
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 17
Outlook for 2008 and 2009
Uncertainty connected to the development of the world economy
Strong NOK, high interest rate, and lower demand from abroad will lead to lower activity in parts of the manufacturing sector and in the building sector.
High oil prices – high level of investments in the oil sector.
Further growth in the public sector
The economy will peak in 2008
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 18
Our forecast
2007 2008 2009
Registered unemployed (persons) 46 062 40 000 45 000
Registered unemployed as a percentage of the labour force 1,90 % 1,60 % 1,80 %
Participants in labour market programmes 10 121 11 450 11 450
Unemployed, AKU, as a percentage of the labour force 2,50 % 2,50 % 2,80 %
Labour force (AKU) 61 000 55 000 30 000Employed (AKU) 81 000 55 000 20 000AKU unemployed -20 000 0 10 000Registered unemployed (NAV) -16 900 -6 000 5 000
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 19
Statistics 2007Statistics 2007
50 163 persons in contact with NAV EURES:
38 671 jobseekers 11 258 employers 1 200 direct placements More than 5 000 other placements
through CV-base and jobfairs 7 000 employers used NAV EURES
for recruiting in 2007 -- and around 40% of these are
private recruitment agencies
NAV, 20.04.23 Side 20
NAV EURES is growing each year