notable historic and future threatening events along the pacific ring of fire as of april 21, 2012...
TRANSCRIPT
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NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE
PACIFIC RING OF FIRE
As of April 21, 2012
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,
University of North Carolina, USA
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RING OF FIRE
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1,000 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE
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MANY HISTORIC EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE
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SOME OF THE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE
RING OF FIRE
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NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS
ALONG THE RING OF FIRE
• THE PHILIPPINES: MOUNT PINATUBO
• USA: NORTHRIDGE, CA EARTHQUAKE
• CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: EARTHQUAKES
• SENDAI, JAPAN: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
• CHILE: VOLCANO PUYEUHE
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THE PHILIPPINES: MT. PINATUBO: JUNE 15, 1991
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Pinatubo was the second largest eruption of the 20th century and the
largest to impact a densely populated area.
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NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE
NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE
4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8
4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8
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NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE
• 57 DEATHS
• 9,000 INJURIES
• OVER $50 BILLION DAMAGE
• TRANSPORT-ATION SYSTEMS FAILED
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CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: SEPT 2010 & FEB 2011 EARTHQUAKES
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TWO EARTHQUAKES SEVERELY CUT NEW
ZEALAND’S 2011 ECONOMIC GROWTH
A DEEP (33 KM) M7.1 AND A SHALLOW (4 KM) M6.3 QUAKE SIX
MONTHS APART COMBINE TO HALF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC
GROWTH
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M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI
IMPACTED JAPAN WITH THE TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING
PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3
– 40 M TSUNAMI WAVES
2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011
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JAPAN: TSUNAMI FOLLOWING M9.0
EARTHQUAKE
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CHILE’S VOLCANO PUYEHUE ERUPTED WITH A MASSIVE ASH CLOUD AND SPECTACULAR LIGHTNING
JUNE 4, 2011
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VOLCANO PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD: JUNE 4, 2011
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PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD
The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere has impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.
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PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD
The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.
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NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE
• CHILE: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
• COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ
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M8.8 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CENTRAL CHILE:
3:34 am on February 27, 2010
Subduction Zone Quake 500 Times More Energy than the M7.0 Haiti Quake
800+ Deaths; 500+ Injured
Numerous Aftershocks
Tsunami Waves Travel Across Pacific
Estimated Loss: $30 Billion
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The Chilean people had to cope with the demands associated with: 1) a mega-quake, 2) a vigorous aftershock sequence with large events, 3) tsunami wave run up, 4) looting of the affluent sector, and 5) recovery after the loss of 15 percent of the GDP.
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It was a catastrophic experience, even though Chile has experienced many past earthquakes, has implemented a modern building code, and was well prepared to respond to all aspects of the emergency.
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COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ, A 1988 DISASTER
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The lahar generated by the eruption of Nevada del Ruiz buried 25,000 people in the
city of Armero as they slept.
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SOME OF THE THREATENING EVENTS
ALONG THE RING OF FIRE
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THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE
RING OF FIRE
• JAPAN: MOUNT FUJI
• JAPAN: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
• USA: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
• USA: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
• USA: CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE
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MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT TO TOKYO
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• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault could be one of the USA's worst natural disasters.
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• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.
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• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.
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THE GREAT TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
POSSIBLY THE WORLD’S FOREMOST IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
FOR WHICH JAPAN HAS BEEN PREPARING FOR 25 YEARS
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REGIONAL MAP
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TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• The Government of Japan expects its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”
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TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning and the time of day it occurs.
• Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.
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TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations
• Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
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• The magnitude 7.8 scenario earthquake will cause about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.
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CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE
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CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE
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SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
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CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE
• The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of M8 to M9 and a destructive tsunami if the M > 8.0.
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A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE
• Long-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake.
• Long-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting tall buildings, long bridges, and long pipelines into vibration.
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THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE
• MEXICO: POPOCATEPETL
• USA: MOUNT RAINIER
• ECUADOR: SANGAY
• VANUATU: MOUNT YASUR
• GUATEMALA: SANTA MARIA
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MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 20
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An estimated 5 million people in
the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Morelos would be affected by a major eruption of the
17,778 ft Popocatepetl
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MT RAINIER: TACOMA, WA
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Tacoma, the capital city is at high risk when Rainier
erupts
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SANGAY, ECUADOR
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Sangay’s steep-sided volcanic cone, which reaches a height of 17,158 feet (5,230 meters), has
been characterized by:1) a historical eruption in 1628, 2)
more or less continuous eruptions from 1728 until 1916, and 3)
continuous eruptions again from 1934 to the present.
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MOUNT YASUR, VANUATU
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Mount Yasur, an active volcano on Tanna Island and a part of the
archipelago nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific, has been erupting
nearly continuously for over a century with strombolian- type
eruptionsk, often occurring several times an hour.
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SANTA MARIA, GUATEMALA
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Santa Maria, a 12,375-foot (3,772-meter) tall stratovolcano, had a
catastrophic eruption in 1902, one of the largest eruptions of the 20th
century, that caused severe damage throughout southwestern
Guatemala
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SO---IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING ALL
CIRCUM-PACIFIC COMMUNITIES RESILIENT TO
EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES
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MAKING THE RING OF FIRE’S FUTURE BETTER THAN ITS PAST
UNDER-STANDUNDER-STAND
IDENT-IFY
IDENT-IFY
HEARHEAR
PERSON-ALIZE
PERSON-ALIZE ACTACT
PERIOD OF PERIOD OF INTEGRATION INTEGRATION
1988-20121988-2012
WINDOW OF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY
20122012
PERIOD OF PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION
NOWNOW