THE SITUATION IN PERU AND BOLIVIA 33 - Notes on the situation in Perm and Bolivia

The following comments are based on observations made in two months (May - June 1983) in Peru spent both in the southern highlands afound Lake Titicaca and in the northern state of Piura. In the southern highlands, particularly around Lake Titicaca in the Department of Puno and stretching right across the highlands of Bolivia, there has been a catastrophic loss of agricultural production this year. Particularly affected, of course, is the staple diet. Last year (1981-1982) potato production in the Depart- ment of Puno was 266,000 tonnes. This year 280,000 tonnes were expected to be produced but estimates in March put the losses at 7070, leading to a shortfall of 196,000 tonnes. Everyone I interviewed agreed that potato losses were severe and some communities claimed 100% destruction of the crop. Potatoes dug up for my benefit were extremely small, scarcely bigger than marbles and some had worms in them. USAID figures for potato losses in Peru as a whole now amount to 491,000 metric tonnes, 27% of national produc- tion. Quinua and barley production were also badly affected.

Coupled with this immense drop in production, there has been a marked increase in the price of basic foods since December (with the exception of meat, of which more later). In one market I visited in the highlands, for example, chuZo, the local freeze-dried potato had risen from 500 soles a pound in February to 600 in May and potatoes from 350 to 500 soles a kilo. Peru has an inflation rate of over 100% at the moment so prices would be rising anyway but the effect in disaster areas would be that much more severe as people have much less income than usual.

In the highlands of Peru and Bolivia, people keep their savings on the hoof, as it were. Animals constitute a kind of inflation-proofed walking bank account for highland families. But with pasture getting scarcer and with the need for cash, sales of animals are increasing and prices are plummeting. Sheep that would have sold for over 10,OOO soles in 1982 went for 5,000 soles as early as April 1983. In effect, people are losing up to half their savings by these enforced sales.

Droughts in the region tend to last several years in succession and there is no certainty that there will be rains from this October. Even if there are, however, there is one major problem, an acute shortage of potato and other seeds. Usually the peasant farmers keep part of their crop seed for the next planting but this year they have not been able to do that. In addition, there are few commercial sources of seeds which will grow in rugged highland conditions and at such a high altitude.

Therefore, the disaster will not suddenly stop with even the next harvest, expected in April 1984. As for the replacement of animals and a general return to some kind of “normal,” this could take up to five years for those who survive.

The same bleak outlook goes for people affected by drought in Bolivia. In many ways this is a more severe disaster for the country because proportionally many more people are affected. Over 1.6 million people, according to

AID figures, are faced by drought and this is over a quarter of the total population of the country. In both Peru and Bolivia there is increasing migration into the cities and towns away from the drought area, Last year’s reserves of food are now running out and increasing numbers of people are leaving for the towns. Yet even this traditional way of dealing with disaster does not afford much hope as people crowd into cities where work in an age of recession is scarce and conditions at the best of times are grim. A World Bank - _ official - in Bolivia described the scene in Potosi City, where thousands o f rZa l peasant families are going, as the worst he had ever seen.

Confronted by a disaster of such potentially immense proportions, relief officials from many agencies have been trying to alleviate the situation by providing food and seeds. AID has plans to ship 12,000 tonnes into Southern Peru of PL480 food aid and another 40,OOO has been earmarked for Bolivia. Other agencies including Oxfam with help from the ODA are providing cash to buy potato seeds. There is no doubt, however, that as the situation gradually gets worse the needs will far outstrip the governments and donors’ ability to respond.

Ironically while Southern areas have been hit by drought, the northern parts of Peru and areas of Bolivia and Ecuador have been devastated by quite extraordinary floods. One city in Peru, Tumbes, received 153 inches of rain in the eight months up to June 1983: no rain at all fell in the corresponding 1981/1982 period. In the Peruvian states of Tumbes and Piura, 12,500 houses have been destroyed and another 28,000 damaged. They were made of adobe and washed away like sandcastles.

Most roads in a vast northern region of Peru and the southern part of Ecuador have been severely affected as fast running waters swept away even tarmac surfaces and 50 major bridges were damaged or destroyed. Scores of health posts and hundreds of school rooms suffered similar treatment. Five ports in Peru were damaged as were hundreds of miles of irrigation channels. The loss of these channels will affect agriculture for years to come. Fish and oil production were lost. Agricultural losses included 20% of the Peruvian rice crop, 155,OOO tonnes in all, plus significant amounts of sugar, cotton, bananas and corn. AID estimated the total flood damage in Peru at over €650 million. Damage in Bolivia was less in cash terms but in three countries almost 1.5 million people continue to be affected. Ironically while the human disaster continues, a vast area of the desert in Northern Peru is in full bloom, with green shrubs everywhere. Recent reports indicate that the rainfall since November 1983 has again been erratic and irregular in the drought-affected areas. Because less seed has been sown for the coming year, and because of continuing anxieties about the weather, a poor harvest in 1984 is expected. Problems are likely to continue well into this year and should be worse than was originally antici- pated. Meanwhile, personal hardship and suffering continue and increase with the prolongation of the crisis.

Floods and drought in this area of Latin America provide a grim spectacle with few relieving features.

Tony Jackson OXFAM, 274 Banbury Road Oxford OX2 7DZ, U.K.

Disasters/8/ 1/ 1984