Notes

Preface

1 The other states in this category are eleven European Union members (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) and two other European states (Norway and Switzerland), together with Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

1 Theory and Explanations

1 Mancur Olson, Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, 'An economic theory of alliances', Review of Economics and Statistics, 48, 1966, pp. 266-79.

2 Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, Harvard University Press, 1965, p. 29.

3 Olson, Jr. and Zeckhauser, 'An economic theory of alliances', p. 275. 4 Ibid., p. 271. 5 Important contributions to this literature include Jacques van Ypserle de Strihou,

'Sharing the defence burden among Western allies', Review of Economics and Statistics, 49, 4, 1967, pp. 527-36i Bruce M. Russett, What Price Vigilance?, Yale University Press, 1970i Mark Boyer, International Cooperation and Public Goods: Opportunities for the Western Alliance, John Hopkins University Press, 1993i Todd Sandler, 'The economic theory of alliances: a survey', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37, 3, September 1993, pp. 446-83i John R. Oneal and Mark A. Elrod, 'NATO burdensharing and the forces of change', International Studies Quarterly, 33, 1989, pp. 435-56i John R. Oneal, 'The theory of collective action and burdensharing in NATO', International Organisation, 44, 3, Summer 1990, pp. 379-402i John R. Oneal, 'Testing the theory of collective action: NATO defense burdens, 1950-1984', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34, 3, 1990, pp. 426-48.

6 One ai, 'Testing the theory of collective action', p. 429. 7 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 1973, Almqvist

and Wiksell, 1973, p. 209. 8 Glenn Palmer, 'Corralling the free rider: deterrence and the Western Alliance',

International Studies Quarterly, 34, 2, 1990, pp. 147-64 does include Japan in analyses of Western defence burdensharing. However, his analysis focuses on changes in national defence spending levels, not comparative defence burdens.

9 Mark A. Boyer, 'Trading public goods in the Western alliance system', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33, 4, December 1989, p. 715.

10 Joseph Nye, 'Redefining the national interest', Foreign Affairs, 78,4, July/August 1999, pp. 28-9.

11 Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939, University of California Press, 1974i Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1982i Robert Keohane, After Hegemony, Princeton University Press, 1984.

12 For a critique of hegemonic stability theory, see Duncan Snidal, 'The limits of hegemonic stability theory', International Organisation, 39, 4, Summer 1985, pp. 579-614.

183

184 Notes

13 For an overview, see Wallace Thies, 'Alliances and collective goods: a reappraisal', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31, 2, June 1987, pp. 298-332.

14 Russett, What Price Vigilance?, pp. 112-16. Also see William M. Reisinger, 'East European military expenditures in the 1970's: collective good or bargaining offer?', International Organisation, 37, 1, Winter 1983, pp. 143-55.

15 Oneal, 'The theory of collective action', p. 382. 16 In addition to the selective exclusion of certain countries, Oneal added 10% to the

spending of all allies that did not rely on conscription. This was designed to 'reflect the monetary value of conscription'. Ibid.

17 Usa L. Martin and Beth Simmons, 'Theories and empirical studies of international institutions', International Organisation, 52, 4, Autumn 1998, p. 737. Also see Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), International Regimes, Corn ell University Press, 1983; John Gerard Ruggie (ed.), Multilateralism Matters: the Theory and Praxis of an Institutional Form, Columbia University Press, 1993.

18 John S. Duffield, 'Explaining the Long Peace in Europe', Review of International Studies, 20, 4, October 1994, pp. 376-7.

19 Schelling, International Cost-Sharing Arrangements, Essays in International Finance No. 24, Princeton University, 1955, p. 9.

20 Michael Hass, The Asian Way to Peace: a Story of Regional Cooperation, Praeger, 1989, pp. 132-4.

21 Thomas Schelling, International Cost-Sharing Arrangements, p. 3. 22 John B. Stoessinger, Financing the UN System, Brookings, 1964, p. SO. 23 The European Union's use of customs duties and value-added tax as a source of

revenue is a partial exception to this rule. 24 European Commission, Financing the European Union: Report on the Operations of the

Own Resources System, October 1998, Annex 8, Table 3c. 25 John S. Duffield, 'NATO force levels and regime analysis', International Organisa­

tion, 46, 4, Autumn 1992, pp. 842-3. 26 Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid in Development, May 1997, p.

10. 27 'Rubbing sleep from their eyes', The Economist, 13 December 1997, p. 64. 28 John Mearsheimer, 'The false promise of international institutions', International

Security, 19,3, Winter 1994/95, p. 13. 29 Ibid., p. 11. 30 Peter J. Schraeder, Steven W. Hook and Bruce Taylor, 'Clarifying the foreign aid

puzzle: a Comparison of American, Japanese, French and Swedish aid flows', World Politics, SO, 2, January 1998, pp. 298-9.

31 Avery Goldstein, 'Discounting the free ride in alliances', International Organisation, 49, 1, Winter 1995, p. 45.

32 Christopher Layne, 'The unipolar moment: Why new great powers will rise', International Security, 17, 4, Spring 1993, p. 37. Also see Kenneth Waltz, 'The emerging structure of international politics', International Security, 18, 2, Fall 1993, pp. 44-79.

33 Kissinger, Diplomacy, Simon & Schuster, 1994, p. 79. 34 George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four: a Novel, Secker & Warburg, 1949. 35 Mearsheimer, 'The false promise of international institutions', p. 7. 36 Andrew Moravcsik, 'Taking preferences seriously: a liberal theory of interna­

tional politics', International Organization, 51, 4, Autumn 1997, p. 513. The terms 'liberal' and 'neoliberal' are often used to describe institutionalist approaches. For example, see Peter Katzenstein (ed.), The Culture of National

Notes 185

Security: Norms and Identities in World Politics, Columbia University Press, pp. 500-5. Moravcsik, however, sees liberal theory as a 'paradigmatic alternative' to both realism and institutionalism. Andrew Moravcsik, 'Taking preferences seriously', p. 513.

37 Alastair lain Johnston, 'Thinking about strategic culture', International Security, 19, 4, Spring 1995, p. 34.

38 Key works include Karl Deutsch et aI., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organisation in the Light of Historical Experience, Princeton Uni­versity Press, 1957; Michael Doyle, 'Kant, liberal legacies and foreign affairs, part 1', Philosophy and Public Affairs, 12, 3, 1983, pp. 205-35; Michael Doyle, 'Kant, liberal legacies and foreign affairs, part 2', Philosophy and Public Affairs, 12, 4, 1983, pp. 323-53; Stephen Rock, Why Peace Breaks Out: Great Power Rapproache­ment in Historical Perspective, University of North Carolina Press, 1989; Nils Peter Gleditsch, 'Democracy and peace', Journal of Peace Research, 29, 4, 1992, pp. 369-76; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, Princeton University Press, 1993; John MacMillan, 'Democracies don't fight: a case of the wrong research agenda', Review ofInternational Studies, 22, 3, July 1996, pp. 275-99.

39 For further discussion, see William Wallace, Regional Integration: the West European Experience, Brookings Institution, 1994, Chapter 2.

40 Michael C. Desch, 'Culture clash: Assessing the importance of ideas in security studies', International Security, 23, 1, Summer 1998, p. 165.

41 David P. Rapkin, Joseph U. Elston and Jonathan R. Strand, 'Institutional adjust­ment to changed power distributions: Japan and the United States in the IMF', Global Governance, 3, 2, 1997, p. 177.

42 For further discussion, see Malcolm Chalmers, Confidence-building in South-East Asia, Westview Press, 1996, pp. 142-51.

43 Japanese nationals held 104 of the 2461 professional and senior posts in the UN in 1996, compared to the 'desirable range' of 205-77 established by the General Assembly on the basis of population, contribution and membership. The US held 375 (compared to a desirable range of 326-441), Germany 131 (desirable range 121-64), Russia 129 (62-84), France 96 (87-118) and the UK 79 (73-99). The only other major under-contributor of personnel was Italy, whose 64 nationals were significantly less than its 'desirable range' of 72-98. Composition ofthe Secretariat: Report of the Secretary-General, General Assembly document A/52/580 of 6 Novem­ber 1997, Table 4.

44 Rapkin et aI., 'Institutional adjustment', p. 189. 45 RobertJackson, Quasi-states: Sovereignty, International Relations and the Third World,

Cambridge University Press, 1993, p. 16. 46 In a recent example, France was unable to convince its colleagues that the euro

zone should be represented at international gatherings by France, Germany and Italy in rotation. Martin Walker, 'France seeks to bolster IMF', Guardian, 28 September 1998.

47 For a sceptical discussion of the connection between aid and General Assembly voting patterns, see Paul Mosley, Overseas Aid: Its Defence and Reform, Wheat sheaf Books, 1987, Chapter 2.

48 World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publications, 1998, pp. 5, 344.

49 For example, see Eugene Gholz, Daryl G. Poress and Harvey Sapolsky, 'Come home, America: the strategy of restraint in the face of temptation', International Security, Spring 1997, pp. 5-48.

186 Notes

50 Olson, Jr. and Zeckhauser, 'An economic theory of alliances', pp. 266-79. 51 Hanns W. Maull, 'Germany and Japan: the new civilian powers', Foreign Affairs,

Winter 1990, 91-106. 52 Stephen Wait, 'International relations: One world, many theories', Foreign Policy,

110, Spring 1998, p. 44. For an extended discussion of the regrettable prevalence of 'false dichotomies' in international relations theory, see Michael Brecher, 'International studies in the twentieth century and beyond: Flawed dichotomies, synthesis, cumulation. ISA Presidential Address', International Studies Quarterly, 43, 2, June 1999, pp. 213-64.

53 Niall Ferguson (ed.), Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals, Papermac, 1997, especially Chapters 5 and 6. The seriousness of the challenges posed to liberal democracy by fascism and communism is also a central theme in Mark Mazower, Dark Continent: Europe's Twentieth Century, Penguin, 1999.

2 Defence in the Cold War

1 Richard Rosecrance, Defense of The Realm, Columbia University Press, 1968, p. 137.

2 Lincoln Gordon, 'Economic aspects of coalition diplomacy - the NATO experi­ence', International Organisation, X, 1956, p. 529.

3 Ibid., pp. 538-9. 4 Simon Lunn, Burdensharing in NATO, Royal Institute for International Affairs,

Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1983, p. 9. 5 Simon Duke, The Burdensharing Debate: a Reassessment, Macmillan, 1993, pp. 58-

60. 6 Excluding Greece, Portugal and Turkey. See Table 2.1. 7 Gordon Adams and Eric Muntz, Fair Shares: Bearing the Burden of the NATO Alli­

ance, Defense Budget Project, 1988. Also see James R. Golden, The Dynamics of Change in NATO: a Burdensharing Perspective, Praeger, 1983; Lunn, Burdensharing in NATO; Phi! Williams, The Senate and US Troops in Europe, Macmillan, 1985; Duke, The Burdensharing Debate.

8 Quoted in Lunn, Burdensharing in NATO, p. 40. 9 Maicolm Chalmers, Paying for Defence: Military Spending and British Decline, Piu to

Press, 1985. 10 The coefficient of variation is the standard deviation divided by the mean. John

Oneal, 'The theory of collective action and burdensharing in NATO', International Organisation, 44, 3, Summer 1990, p. 391, estimates that a significant decline in the coefficient of variation did take place over the period 1950-84. Oneal's analysis, however, makes a number of adjustments to the raw data - for example, adding 10% to spending levels of countries with conscript armies. His analysis is therefore not directly comparable.

11 Lunn, Burdensharing in NATO, p. 17; Duke, The Burdensharing Debate, pp. 72-5. 12 SIPRI Yearbook, various editions. 13 Paul Samuelson, Economics: an Introductory Analysis, McGraw-Hill, 1964, quoted in

Michael D. Ward and David R. Davis, 'Sizing up the peace dividend: Economic growth and military spending in the United States, 1948-1996', American Political Science Review, 86, 3, September 1992, p. 748. Also see Bruce Russett, What Price Vigilance? The Burdens of National Defence, Yale University Press, 1970.

14 Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Random House, 1987, pp. 532-5.

Notes 187

15 Correlli Barnett, The Lost Victory: British Dreams, British Realities 1945-1950, Mac­millan, 1995.

16 Chalmers, Paying for Defence, pp. 50-4. Also see Maicolm Chalmers, 'Military spending and economic decline' in David Coates and John Hillard, UK Economic Decline: Key Texts, Prentice Hall/Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1995, pp. 287-91.

17 Quoted in Anthony Eden, Full Circle, Cassell, 1960, pp. 370-2. 18 Department of Economic Affairs, The National Plan, Cmnd 2764, 1965, Chapter 19. 19 Denis Healey, The Time of My Life, Penguin, 1989, p. 412. 20 Adne Cappelen, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Olav BjerkhoJt, 'Military spending and

economic growth in the OECD countries', Journal of Peace Research, 21, 4, 1984, pp. 361-73 finds such a relationship for the period 1960-80.

21 Ibid., p. 371. See also Mancur Olson, The Rise and Decline of Nations, Yale Uni­versity Press, 1982; A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago University Press, 1980.

22 Alex Mintz and China Huang, 'Guns versus butter: the indirect link', American Journal of Political Science, 35, 1991, p. 1291. Also see Jacques Fontanel, 'The economics of disarmament: a survey', Defence and Peace Economics,S, 2, 1994, pp. 87-120; Michael D. Ward and David R. Davis, 'Sizing up the peace dividend' Bruce Russett, 'Who pays for defense?', American Political Science Review, 63, 1969, pp. 412-26; Ron Smith, 'Military expenditure and investment in OECD Countries 1954-1973', Journal of Comparative Economics, 4, 1980, pp. 19-32; Steve Chan, 'The impact of defense spending on economic performance: a survey of evidence and problems', Orbis, 29, 2, Summer 1985, pp. 403-34; Steve Chan, 'Grasping the peace dividend: some propositions on the conversion of swords into plowshares', Mershon International Studies Review, 39, 1, April 1995, pp. 53-96.

23 Patrick McCarthy, The Crisis of the Italian State: From the Origins of the Cold War to the Fall ofBerlusconi, St Martin's Press, 1995, p. 43.

24 Hanns W. Maull, 'Germany and Japan: the new civilian powers', Foreign Affairs, Winter 1990, pp. 91-106.

25 Thomas U. Berger, 'Norms, identity and national security in Germany and Japan', in Peter]. Katzenstein (ed.), The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics, Columbia University Press, 1996, p. 318.

26 Filippo Andreatta and Christopher Hill, 'Italy', in ]olyon Howorth and Anand Menon (eds), The European Union and National Defence Policy, Routledge, 1997, p. 68.

27 Step hen Brooks, 'Dueling realisms', International Organisation, 51, 3, Summer 1997, pp. 464-5. Brooks suggests, however, that a reformulation of realism, which he entitles 'post classical realism', would predict that Germany and Japan will not seek to balance the US militarily as long as the possibility of coercive US action against them is low.

28 Johannes Bohnen, 'Germany' in ]olyon Howorth and Anand Menon (eds), The European Union and National Defence Policy, Routledge, 1997, pp. 53-5.

29 Sun-Ki Chai, 'Entrenching the Yoshida defense doctrine: three techniques for institutionalization', International Organisation, 51, 3, Summer 1997, p. 398.

30 John S. Outfield, Power Rules: The Evolution of NATO's Conventional Force Posture, Stanford University Press, 1995, p. 253.

31 Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Random House, 1987, p. 330. 32 Ibid., p. 296. 33 Ibid., p. 333.

188 Notes

34 Ibid., p. 384. Also see Chalmers, Paying for Defence, pp. 47-54. 35 Bruce Russett, 'The mysterious case of vanishing hegemony; or, Is Mark Twain

really dead?', International Organisation, 39, 2, Spring 1985, pp. 228-30. 36 Quoted in Charles Morris, Iron Destinies, Lost Opportunities: the Post-War Arms Race,

Carroll and Graf Publishers, 1989, p. 160. 37 Douglas Stuart and William Tow, the Limits of Alliance: NATO Out-Of-Area Problems

Since 1949, John Hopkins University Press, 1990, pp. 279-80. 38 Anthony Forster and William Wallace, 'Common Foreign and Security Policy' in

Helen Wallace and William Wall ace (eds), Policy-Making in the European Union, third edition, Oxford University Press, p. 423.

39 Jacques Fontanel and Jean-Paul Hebert, 'The end of the "French Grandeur Pol­icy"', Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 1997, p. 40. Also see Table 2.l.

40 Stephen Schwarz, Atomic Audit: the Costs and Consequences of us Nuclear Weapons Since 1940, Brookings Institution, 1998; 'Costing a bomb', Economist, 4 January 1997.

41 Todd Sandler and John F. Forbes, 'Burden-sharing, strategy, and the design of NATO', Economic Inquiry, 18, 1980, pp. 436-8. For a discussion of this literature, see Mark A. Boyer, International Cooperation and Public Goods: Opportunities for the Western Alliance, John Hopkins University Press, 1993, pp. 20-7.

42 For a critique of this argument from other public goods theorists, see John R. Oneal and Mark A. Elrod, 'NATO burdens ha ring and the forces of change', Inter­national Studies Quarterly, 33, 1989, pp. 440-5.

43 David Yost, France's Deterrent Posture and Security in Europe Part 11: Strategic and Arms Control Implications, Adelphi Paper 195, International Institute for Strategic Stu­dies, 1984/5, p. 4.

44 Starting in the early 1970s, some US assistance to the French programme does appear to have been provided. Richard H. Ullman, 'The covert French connec­tion', Foreign Policy, Summer 1989, pp. 3-33.

45 Fontanel and Hebert, 'The end of the "French Grandeur Policy"', p. 40. 46 For the whole period from 1945 to 1970, Andrew Pierre estimates that the total

cost of the strategic nuclear force was £3200 million (presumably at current prices). Andrew Pierre, Nuclear Politics: the British Experience with an Independent Strategic Force 1939-70, Oxford University Press, 1972, p. 309. Also see Alistair Buchan, Director of I1SS, quoted in Raymond Fletcher, £60 a Second on Defence, MacGibbon and Kee, 1963, p. 122.

47 Calculated using GDP deflators. 48 Chalmers, Paying for Defence, p. 185. 49 National Audit Office, Major Projects Report 1996, HC238, August 1997, p. 53. All

figures in 1998/9 prices. 50 Avery Goldstein, 'Discounting the free ride in alliances', International Organisation,

49, 1, Winter 1995, pp. 44-5. 51 Sir John Slessor, Strategy for the West, Cassell, 1954, p. 105. 52 Quoted in Yost, France's Deterrent Posture, pp. 13-14. 53 Thomas Berger, 'Norms, identity and national security' pp. 323-4. 54 Anita Inder Singh, The Limits of British Influence: South Asia and the Anglo-American

Relationship 1947-56, Pinter Press, 1993, p. 15. 55 Ibid., pp. 6-7. 56 David Fromkin, 'Churchill's way: The great convergence of Britain and the United

States', World Policy Journal, Spring 1998, p. 5. 57 Stuart and Tow, The Limits of Alliance, p. 270.

Notes 189

58 Ibid., p. 217. 59 International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance 1985/86,

IISS, 1985, p. 48. 60 IISS, The Military Balance 1990/91, Brassey's, 1990, p. 73. 61 Stuart and Tow, The Limits of Alliance, p. 280. 62 Brian Cloughley, 'Japan ponders power projection', International Defense Review, 7,

1996, p. 27. 63 John S. Duffield, Power Rules: the Evolution of NATO's Conventional Force Posture,

Stanford University Press, 1995, p. 11l. 64 The US Army in West Germany in 1985 was 209000-strong, out of total Army

strength of 781 000. The British Army in West Germany totalled 58000 out of a total Army strength of 163000. IISS, The Military Balance 1985/86, pp. 8, 14, 40, 43.

65 John S. Duffield, 'NATO force levels and regime analysis', International Organisa-tion, 46, 4, Autumn 1992, 819-55.

66 Ibid., p. 840. 67 Yost, France's Deterrent Posture, p. 10. 68 Chalmers, Paying for Defence, pp. 90-5. 69 Duffield, 'NATO force levels', p. 823. 70 Mesako Ikegami-Andresson, 'Japan: a latent but large supplier of dual-use tech­

nology' in Herbert Wuif (ed.), Arms Industry Limited, SIPRIIOxford University Press, 1994, p. 323.

71 Kensuke Ebata, 'A gentle breeze of change blows through Japanese defence', lane's Defence Weekly, 15 July 1995, p. 21.

72 Paul Kennedy, Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 324. 73 J. Farquharson, 'Marshal! Aid and British policy on reparations from

Germany, 1947-1949', Review of International Studies, 22, 4, October 1996, pp. 361-80.

74 Paulo Miggiano, 'Italy' in Ian Anthony (ed.), Arms Export Regulations, Oxford University Press, 1991, p. 92.

75 Ikegami-Andresson, 'Japan', p. 32l. 76 Herbert Wuif, 'The Federal Republic of Germany' in Ian Anthony (ed.), Arms

Export Regulations pp. 73-4. 77 Duke, The Burdensharing Debate, p. 59. 78 Marco De Andreis and Giulio Perani, 'Italy's Aerospace Industry and the Euro­

fighter 2000' in Randal! Forsberg (ed.), The Arms Production Dilemma, MIT Press, 1994, pp. 168-9. Also see Herbert Wulf, 'The Federal Republic of Germany' and Paulo Miggiano, 'Italy' in Ian Anthony (ed.), Arms Export Regulations. Significant national capabilities were also re-established, for example in armoured vehicles and warships for Germany, and in helicopters for Italy. The relative emphasis on national procurement in both countries, however, remained lower than in France and the UK.

79 Ikegami-Andresson, 'Japan', p. 339. 80 Ibid., p. 322. 81 Herbert Wuif, 'The Federal Republic of Germany' in Ian Anthony (ed.), Arms Export

Regulations. Also see Ian Davis, 'The Regulation of Arms and Dual-Use Exports by EU Member States: A Comparative Analysis of Germany, Sweden and the UK', thesis submitted for the degree of PhD, University of Bradford, 1999.

82 SIPRI Yearbook 1994, Oxford University Press, 1994, p. 474. 83 Quoted in Morris, Iron Destinies, Lost Opportunities, p. 160.

190 Notes

84 Michael Brzoska and Peter Lock, 'Daimler Benz: the final stage of concentration in German arms production' in Michael Brzoska and Peter Lock (eds), Restructur­ing of Arms Production in Western Europe, SIPRIIOxford University Press, 1992, p. 118.

3 Defence after the Cold War

1 For an interpretation of the Cold War that emphasises the role of intersystemic competition, see Fred Halliday, Rethinking International Relations, Macmillan, 1994,pp.170-215.

2 Russell E. Travers, 'A new millennium and a strategic breathing space', Washington Quarterly, 20, 2, Spring 1997, p. 99.

3 NATO Review, Spring 1999, pp. 31-3. These figures are not comparable to those for the unweighted NATO average which appear in Table 3.1.

4 Calculated from figures in Table 3.1. Greece, Portugal and Turkey are excluded from this calculation.

5 Gerard Baker, 'The product of peace', Financial Times, 18 August 1997. 6 Michael D. Ward and David R. Davis, 'Sizing up the peace dividend: economic

growth and military spending in the US, 1948-1996', American Political Science Review, 86, 3, September 1992, pp. 748-55 is a useful study of these relationships. They conclude that 'the downsizing of the military that seems to make strategic sense may well carry with it economic benefits that are substantial'.

7 Baker, 'The product of peace'. 8 Using the standardised International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition, this

was equivalent to 5.9%, still well below the EU average. The Guardian, 15 Septem­ber 1999.

9 For recent contributions to this literature, see Alex Mintz and China Huang, 'Guns versus butter: the indirect link', American Journal of Political Science, 35, 1991, p. 1291; Jacques Fontanel, 'The economics of disarmament: a survey', Defence and Peace Economics,S, 2, 1994, pp. 87-120; Steve Chan, 'The impact of defense spending on economic performance: a survey of evidence and problems', Orbis, 29, 2 Summer 1985, pp. 403-34; Steve Chan, 'Grasping the peace dividend: some propositions on the conversion of swords into plowshares', Mershon Inter­national Studies Review, 39, 1, April 1995, pp. 53-96.

10 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1987-88, IISS, 1987; International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1998-99, Oxford University Press, 1998, p. 55.

11 Calculated from Table 3.1. 12 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1990-91, Bras­

sey's, 1990; The Military Balance 1998-99. 13 For a summary of the conscription debate in French history, see Beatrice Heuser,

'The transformation of France's armed forces', RUSI Journal, February 1997, pp. 35-37.

14 David Ing, 'Spain: regular forces at the centre of new policy', Jane's Defence Weekly, 26 March 1997; Brooks Tigner, 'One on one: Antonion Vitorino', Defense News, 25 November 1996, p. 22; Ade Clewlow, 'Portuguese forces to go all-professional by 2003', Jane's Defence Weekly, 25 November 1998.

15 Paolo Valpolini, 'Italy moves towards all-volunteer forces', Jane's Defence Weekly, 10 February 1999, p. 12.

16 NATO Review, Spring 1989, Table 5.

Notes 191

17 Heuser, 'The transformation of France's armed forces', p. 37. 18 J.A.C. Lewis, 'France: fitter, leaner forces for multi-polar world', Jane's Defence

Weekly, 11 June 1997, p. 71. 19 Stephen I. Schwartz (ed.), Atomic Audit: the Costs and Consequences of us Nuclear

Weapons since 1940, Brookings Institution, 1998, p. 31. 20 Ibid., p. 3. 21 Peter Almond, 'NATO tactical nuclear weapons: going, going, gone?', Disarma­

ment Diplomacy, January 1997, p. 9. 22 The Military Balance 1998-99, p. 13. 23 Congressional Budget Office, Letter to Thomas A. Daschle regarding budgetary impact

of alternative levels of strategic forces, 18 March 1998. This is included in the total cost of $35 billion cited above.

24 Ibid. 25 For a discussion of UK nuclear weapons policy, see Makolm Chalmers, '''Bombs

Away"? Britain and nuclear weapons under New Labour', Security Dialogue, 30, 1, March 1999, pp. 61-74.

26 UK Ministry of Defence, The Strategic Defence Review, Cm 3999, July 1998, p. 18. 27 Excluding spending on the purchase of the fourth Trident boat, which may not

be completed until around 2002. A full accounting for the current costs of Britain's nuclear programme should also include significant additional amounts for clearing up the environmental damage left by past nuclear weapons activ­ities.

28 Lewis, 'France: fitter, leaner forces' Jacques Fontanel and Jean-Paul Hebert, 'The end of the "French Grandeur Policy" " Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 1, 1997, p. 40; Statement by Ambassador Joelle Bourgois, 27 April 1998, quoted in Disarma­ment Diplomacy, May 1998, p. 31.

29 Frederic Drion, 'France: new defense for a new millenium', Parameters, 26, 4, Winter 1996/7, p. 102.

30 J. A. C. Lewis, 'Country briefing: France', Jane's Defence Weekly, 21 October 1995.

31 Eugene Skolnikoff et aI., International Responses to Japanese Plutonium Programs, MIT Center for International Studies Working Paper, August 1995, p. v.

32 For detailed discussion, see Andrew Bennett, Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger, Friends in Need: Burden Sharing in the Gulf War, Macmillan, 1997.

33 Data is from UK Ministry of Defence, Statement on the Defence Estimates 1991, Cm 1559-1, 1991, p. 9; International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Bal­ance 1991-1992, Brassey's, 1991, pp. 238-42; Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, Faber & Faber, 1994 edition, pp. 356-8.

34 Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf conflict, p. 361. 35 As ofjune 1995, NATO troop contributors to UN operations in Bosnia and Croatia

were France (4665), UK (4440), Canada (2031), Netherlands (1633), Spain (1544), Turkey (1469), Denmark (1245), Belgium (871), Norway (766) and Portugal (42). Major non-NATO contributors included Pakistan (3013), Malaysia (1559), Russia (1417), Bangladesh (1286), Sweden (1258), Ukraine (1079), Poland (1078), Czech Republic (933) and Sri Lanka (896) and Argentina (859). International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1995/96, Oxford University Press, 1995, pp. 40-67.

36 Other NATO contributors included the Netherlands (22), Canada (18), Germany (15), Turkey (11), Belgium (10), Denmark (9), Spain (8), Norway (6) and Portugal (3). 'Operation Allied Force: Kosovo Order of Battle', Federation of American

192 Notes

Scientists website, 3 June 1999. Web address at: http://wwwJas. org/man/dod-101 ops/kosovo_orbat.htm.

37 The Military Balance 1998/99, pp. 20-67. 38 KFOR Press Statements, 4 July 1999 and 30 August 1999. 39 Jane Sharp, 'Prospects for peace in Bosnia: the role of Britain', in Sophia Clement,

The Issues Raised by Bosnia, and the Transatlantic Debate, Institute for Security Studies, Chaillot Paper 32, May 1998.

40 Paul Gebhard, The United States and European Security, Adelphi Paper 286, Brassey's/ IISS, 1994, p. 3.

41 Paul Stares and Nicolas Regaud, 'Europe's role in Asia-Pacific Security', Survival, 39,4, Winter 1997-98, pp. 117-39.

42 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 1998, Oxford University Press, 1998, p. 269.

43 'Britain opts out of Europe', The Economist, 23 January 1999. 44 Alexander Nicoll, 'Gunfight at the UK corral', Financial Times, 20 January 1999. 45 Centre for European Reform, Europe's Defence Industry: a Transatlantic Future, June

1999. 46 Nick Cook, 'A relationship under wraps: US-UK Stealth', lane's Defence Weekly, 4

September 1996. 47 Ibid. 48 Jon Jay, 'Forget about Europe, the prize in defence is global', Sunday Times, 24

January 1999. 49 'Arms sales fuel BAe's profits', BBC News Online, 25 February 1999. 50 Jane Croft, 'GKN and Finemeccanica agree deal', Financial Times, 18 March 1999. 51 'European aerospace giants to merge', Financial Times, 14 October 1999; 'CASA

joins EADS', Aerospatiale Press Release, 2 December 1999. 52 Michael O'Hanlon, 'Transforming NATO: the role of European forces', Survival,

39,3, Autumn 1997, p. 9. 53 For an excellent collection of commentary on the Quadrennial Defense Review,

see http://www.comw.org/qdr/. Also see Russell Travers, 'A new millenium', Washington Quarterly, 20, 2, Spring 1997, pp. 97-114.

54 Michael O'Hanlon, 'Scrap the 2-war strategy', Christian Science Monitor, 15 Decem­ber 1997.

55 For a critical approach, arguing for disengagement from Europe and Asia and a sharp cut in US military spending, see Christopher Layne, 'From preponderance to offshore balancing: America's future grand strategy', International Security, 22, 1, Summer 1997, p. 87.

56 The Military Balance 1998/99, pp. 295-6. 57 Edward N. Luttwak, 'Where are the Great Powers? at home with the kids', Foreign

Affairs, 73, 4, July/August 1994, pp. 23-8. 58 UK Treasury, Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 1999-2000, Cm 4201, March

1999, Table 4.3. 59 UK Ministry of Defence, Defence Statistics 1998, 1998, p. 24. 60 UK Treasury, Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 1999-2000, Table 4.4. 61 The Military Balance 1998-99, pp. 69-72. 62 Lawrence Freedman, 'Alliance and the British way in warfare', Review of Interna­

tional Studies, 21, 2, April 1995, pp. 155-6. 63 Freedman and Karsh, The GulfConf/ict, p. 405. 64 Colin McInnes, 'The future of the British Army', Defence Analysis, 9, 2, 1993, p.

133.

Notes 193

65 Ian Kemp, 'NATO's ARRC: shaping up for service', lane's World of Defence 1995, Jane's Publishing, 1995.

66 'The Allied Rapid Reaction Corps experience', lane's International Defense Review, 4/1997, p. 48.

67 The Military Balance 1998-99, pp. 30-72. The UK's Army of 113 900 is slightly smaller than those of both Greece (116000) and Spain (127000).

68 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 1997, Oxford University Press, 1997, pp. 171, 188.

69 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1990-1991, Bras­sey's, 1990, p. 63; The Military Balance 1998/99, p. 50. As a result of a reduction in conscript numbers from 235000 to 129000, total personnel numbers fell from 461 000 to 359000.

70 Heuser, 'The transformation of France's armed forces', p. 38. 71 J. A. C. Lewis, 'Arms projects survive as France prepares cuts', lane's Defence Weekly,

1 October 1997, p. 5. 72 Robert Graham, 'Paris go-ahead for reshape of defence group', Financial Times, 19

June 1998. 73 'Djibouti base to back France's role in the Gulf', lane's Defence Weekly, 26 Novem­

ber 1997. 74 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1987-88, IISS,

1987; The Military Balance 1998-99, 1998. 75 US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms

Transfers 1996, US Government Printing Office, 1997, p. 7l. 76 Sunday Times, 8 February 1998. 77 NATO Review, February 1999 and previous editions. 78 During the six years 1993-98, Germany bought no tanks, combat aircraft or

attack helicopters and only two warships. Malcolm Chalmers and Owen Greene, Background Briefing: Reporting National Procurement and Military Holdings to the UN Register 1992-1997, University of Bradford, December 1997; UN Department of Disarmament Affairs, replies to the UN Register for 1998 and 1999.

79 Heinz Schulte, 'Germany's spending cut will drive down budget for first time', lane's Defence Weekly, 30 June 1999, p. 13.

80 Anthony Forster and William Wall ace, 'Common Foreign and Security Policy: a new policy or just a new name?', in Helen Wallace and William Wallace (eds), Policy-Making in the European Union, Oxford University Press, 1996, p. 434.

81 John Grimond, 'The burden of normality: a survey of Germany', The Economist, 6 February 1999, p. 4.

82 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1997-1998, p. SS. 83 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1990-1991, Bras­

sey's, 1990, p. 67; International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1998-1999, Oxford University Press, 1998, p. 53.

84 NATO Review, various editions. 85 Table 3.1. 86 Filippo Andreatta and Christopher Hill, 'Italy', in Jolyon Howorth and Anand

Menon (eds), The European Union and National Defence Policy, Routledge, 1997, p. 74.

87 Ibid., p. 72. 88 Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, p. 356.

194 Notes

89 Andreatta and Hill, 'Italy', p. 79. 90 'Thinking bigger', The Economist, 16 October 1999. 91 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1997-1998,

Oxford University Press, 1997, p. 283. 92 Gianni Bonvicini, 'Regional reassertion: the dilemmas of Italy' in Christopher

Hill (ed.), The Actors in Europe's Foreign Policy, Routledge, 1996, p. 100. 93 The Military Balance 1998-1999, p. 59. 94 NATO Review, various editions. 95 Paolo Valpolini, 'Italy moves towards all-volunteer forces', lane's Defence Weekly,

10 February 1999, p. 12;]. A. C. Lewis, 'Withdrawal of French division adds to cutbacks', lane's Defence Weekly, 9 June 1999, p. 25; HM Treasury, The Govern­ment's Expenditure Plans 1999/2000-2001/2002: Ministry of Defence Report, Table 4, 1999.

96 US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures, p. 76. 97 Robert Karniol, 'Japanese budget falls short of Defence Agency request', lane's

Defence Weekly, 13 January 1999. 98 Tamohisa Sakanaka, 'Japan's changing defence policy' in Ron Matthews and

Keisuke Matsuyama (eds), lapan's Military Renaissance?, Macmillan, 1993. 99 Brian Cloughley, 'Japan ponders power projection', International Defense Review,

7, 1996, p. 27. 100 Mike Mochizuki and Michael O'Hanlon, 'A liberal vision for the US-Japanese

alliance', Survival, 40, 2, Summer 1998, pp. 127-34. 101 Sun Ki-Chai, 'Entrenching the Yoshida defense doctrine: three techniques for

institutionalization', International Organisation, 51, 3, Summer 1997, p. 398. 102 International Institute for Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 1997/8, Oxford Uni­

versity Press, 1998, p. 182. 103 Ibid., p. 183. 104 Anthony Forster and William Wallace, 'Common Foreign and Security Policy' in

Helen Wallace and William Wallace (eds), Policy-Making in the European Union, Oxford University Press, 1996, pp. 411-35.

105 Andrew Cottey, The European Union and Conflict Prevention: the Role of the High Representative and the Policy Planning and Early Warning Unit, Saferworld, Decem­ber 1998.

106 Martin Woolacott, 'Goodbye to all that', The Guardian, 2 January 1999. 107 'UK and France agree military pact', BBC News On line, 4 December 1998. 108 John Vinocur, 'France has a hard sell to rein in US power', International Herald

Tribune, 6 February 1999. 109 Andrew Cottey, 'Central Europe transformed: security and cooperation on

NATO's new frontier', Contemporary Security Policy, 20, 2, August 1999, pp. 1-30. 110 The Military Balance 1998/1999, pp. 82-92. 111 'Financial and economic data relating to NATO defence', NATO press release of

2 December 1999, Table 3. NATO Review, July-August 1997, p. 5; NATO stat­istics.

112 Andrew Heavens, 'Lithuania holds its breath over Kosovo', Financial Times, 30 March 1999; 'NATO assures Baltics they are still a priority', STRATFOR briefing, 16 July 1999. If spending on paramilitary forces is included (in line with NATO definitions), spending accounts for more than 4% of GDP. The Military Balance 1998/1999, pp. 36, 295.

113 The Military Balance 1998/1999, pp. 295-6.

Notes 195

114 David Fairhall, 'Paying for NATO: no free launch for the new boys', The Guardian, 29 October 1997.

115 Craig Whitney, 'Will East meet West in Europe? Cost of Union is a big barrier', New York Times, 12 March 1999.

116 John Mearsheimer, 'Back to the future: instability in Europe after the Cold War', International Security, 15, 1, Summer 1990; Christopher Layne, 'The unipolar illusion: why new Great Powers will rise', International Security, 17, 4, Spring 1993. Also see John Mueller, Retreat from Doomsday: the Obsolescence of Major War, Basic Books, 1989.

117 For further discussion, see Malcolm Chalmers, Kosovo: the Crisis and Beyond, Saferworld, April 1999.

4 The European Union

William Wallace, Regional Integration: the West European Experience, Brookings, 1994, pp. 20-1 points out that 'the entire territory of the original six countries could be contained within the fifteen northeastern states of the US'. Andrew Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe: Social Purpose and State Power from Messina to Maastricht, UCL Press, 1999 also emphasises the importance of economic interdependence as a driving force in European integration.

2 The account of the evolution of the EU budget in this chapter is based on a variety of sources, including Helen Wallace, Budgetary Politics: the Finances of the European Communities, Alien & Unwin, 1980; Michael Shackleton, Financing the European Community, RIIAlPinter, 1990; John Pinder, European Com­munity: the Building of a Union, third edition, Oxford University Press, 1998; David Armstrong, Lorna Lloyd and John Redmond, From Versailles to Maastricht: Interna­tional Organisations in the 20th Century, Macmillan, 1996; Brigid Laffan and Michael Shackleton, 'The Budget' in Helen Wallace and William Wallace (eds), Policy-Mak­ing in the European Union, third edition, Oxford University Press, 1996, pp. 71-96; lain Begg and Nigel Grimwade, Paying for Europe, Sheffield Academic Press, 1998; Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe.

3 The costs of creating new, lower-cost competitors would also have to be factored into the equation. By investing funds through the EU in Spain, for example, Germany might create competitors as well as markets for its industries. A further complication might arise if the interests of German firms diverged from those of the German economy as a whole. Just as US Marshall Aid helped create the conditions for US foreign investment in Europe, therefore, EU aid to southern Europe helped open up the economies of the new members to investment by German companies.

4 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 86. Elmar Rieger, 'The Common Agricultural Policy: External and internal dimen­sions', in Helen Wallace and William Wall ace (eds), Policy Making in the European Union, p. 105. Also see Alan Milward, The European Rescue of the Nation-State, Routledge, 1992, pp. 227-8.

6 Pinder, European Community, pp. 98-103. 7 European Commission, The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, 1998, Table 3.

Also see Dieter Biehl, 'The public finances of the Union' in Andrew Duff, John Pinder and Roy Pryce (eds), Maastricht and Beyond: Building the European Union, Routledge, 1994, p. 141.

196 Notes

8 All at 1998 prices. The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, Tables 2 and 3. Also see Brigid Laffan and Michael Shackleton, 'The Budget' in Helen Wall ace and William Wallace (eds), Policy Making in the European Union, p. 75.

9 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 180. 10 Ibid., p. 180. 11 Ibid., p. 184. 12 Ibid.; William Wallace, Regional Integration, pp. 36-7. 13 'Against the grain', The Economist, 20 February 1999. 14 European Commission, Financing the European Union: Report on the Operation of the

Own Resources System, October 1998, Annex 8, Table 6b. This uses a definition of budgetary balance close to that used to calculate the size of the UK rebate.

15 This was also an important issue for Belgium and the Netherlands. 16 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 147; Pinder, European Community, p. 22I. 17 Pinder, European Community, p. 222. EDF spending amounted to 30% of total EC

spending in the period from 1962 to 1966. The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, 1998, Table 2.

18 Helen Wallace, Budgetary Politics, p. 53. Payments to the EDF are not normally included in figures for net contributions to the EC/EU general budget.

19 Roy Denman, Missed Chances: Britain and Europe in the Twentieth Century, Indigo, 1997, p. 194.

20 Major-General Edward Fursdon, The European Defence Community: a History, Mac­millan, 1980, p. 297.

21 Helen Wallace 'The institutions of the EU: experiences and experiments' in Helen Wallace and William Wallace (eds), Policy-making in the European Union, Oxford University Press, 1996, p. 45.

22 Milward, The European Rescue of the Nation-State, pp. 198, 223. 23 Ibid. p. 198; Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, pp. lOO-I. 24 Elisabetta Croci-Angelini, 'Agricultural policy' in Francesco Francioni (ed.), Italy

and EC Membership Evaluated, Pinter Publishers, 1992, p. 36. While other authors give different figures, some higher and some lower, there is a consensus that Germany was a net contributor to the budget during this period.

25 Annual Report of the Court of Auditors, Official Journal of the European Commu-nities, 12 December 1990, pp. 76-7.

26 Financing the European Union, Annex 8, Tables If, 2f, 4. 27 Ibid., Table 3c. 28 Milward, The European Rescue of the Nation-State, p. 27I. 29 Pinder, European Community, pp. 105-6. 30 For example, see Croci-Angelini, 'Agricultural policy', pp. 38-40. 31 Helen Wallace, 'Distributional politics: Dividing up the Community cake'

in Helen Wallace, William Wallace and Carole Webb (eds), Policy-Making in the European Communities, second edition, 1982, p. 94.

32 Financing the European Union, p. 25. 33 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 90. 34 Figures for net contributions in the late 1970s are based on figures given in House

of Lords Select Committee on the European Communities, EEC Budget, HMSO, 19 June 1979, Part Ill; The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, Tables 2 and 3. Figures for 1992-97 are from Financing the European Union, op cit, p. 23 and Table 4.

35 Sunday Times, 8 February 1998. 36 Martin Wolf, 'German handicap', Financial Times, 31 March 1999.

Notes 197

37 Michael Franklin, The EC Budget: Realism, Redistribution and Radical Reform, Royal Institute of International Affairs Discussion Paper 42, 1992, p. 7.

38 Pinder, European Community, pp. 110-115; Michael Shackle ton, Financing the Eur­opean Community, Chatham House Papers, 1990, pp. 10-13.

39 The 1997 figure used in this calculation excludes CAP spending in Austria, Fin­land and Sweden. The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, Tables 2 and 3; Financing the European Union, Table lb.

40 The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, ibid. 41 David Allen, 'Cohesion and structural adjustment' in Helen Wallace and William

Wallace (eds), Policy Making in the European Union, p. 232. 42 Croci-Angelini, 'Agricultural Policy', pp. 31-50. 43 Cited in Joan Pearce, 'The Common Agricultural Policy: The Accumulation of

Special Interests', in Helen Wallace, William Wall ace and Carole Webb (eds), Policy-Making in the European Community, second edition, Oxford University Press, 1983, p. 153. For a comparison of different estimates of trade losses, all of which show Italy as a major net contributor, see Croci-Angelini, 'Agricultural Policy', p. 43.

44 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 215. 45 Helen Wallace, Budgetary Politics, p. 27. 46 Ibid., p. 51 for 1978 figures; European Commission, op cit, Annex 8, Table la for

1992-1997 figures. Also see 'Against the grain', The Economist, 20 February 1999; 'Not all as cosseted as consumers say', The Economist, 19 December 1998.

47 William Wallace, Regional Integration, p. 67. 48 Helen Wallace, Budgetary Politics, p. 51. Germany was the largest benefiCiary from

the ESF in the 1970s. Personal communication from Helen Wallace. 49 Helen Wallace, 'Distributional Politics: Dividing up the Community Cake'

in Helen Wallace, William Wallace and Carole Webb (eds), Policy-Making in the European Communities, p. 94.

50 John W. Young, Britain and European Unity 1945-1992, Macmillan, 1993, p. 105. 51 Ibid., p. 83. 52 David Armstrong, Lorna Lloyd and John Redmond, From Versailles to Maastricht:

International Organisations in the 20th Century, Macmillan, 1996, p. 167. 53 Helen Wallace, Budgetary Politics, p. 51. 54 Ibid., pp. 28-9. 55 Second Report of the House of Lords Select Committee on the European Communities,

1979/80, HMSO, June 1979, p. xx. Also see Helen Wallace, Budgetary Politics, p. 28.

56 Second Report of the House of Lords Select Committee, ibid.; Croci-Angelini, 'Agricul­tural Policy', p. 43.

57 The 1971 White Paper presenting the case for British membership to Parliament, for example, asserted that there was 'no question of any erosion of essential national sovereignty'. Pinder, European Community, p. 63.

58 Helen Wallace, 'Distributional politics', p. 99. 59 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 349. Personal communication, Helen Wal­

lace. 60 The rebate applies only in respect of spending within the Community, and the UK

contribution is calculated as if the budget were entirely financed by VAT. Depart­mental Report of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Departments, Cm 4218, March 1999, Section 7.5.

61 Financing the European Union, Tables la and lb.

198 Notes

62 Memorandum from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Appendix 15, Third Report from the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, March 1999, p. 3

63 Departmental Report of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Departments, Section 7.5. 64 In a concession to concern over the size of its own contribution, however,

Germany only has to pay two-thirds of its normal share in apportioning the cost of financing the UK rebate.

65 Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe, p. 364. 66 Measured at purchasing power parity. Taking West Germany's GNP per capita as

100, the UK was the poorest at 82.3, followed by Italy (86.7), Denmark (87.4), Netherlands (89.2), Belgium (92.1), France (95.8) and Luxembourg (1.25). Finan­cing the European Union, Table 9.

67 Portugal's GNP per head in 1980 was 45.5% that of West Germany, Ireland's 52.9%, Greece's 56.5% and Spain's 59.4%. Ibid. Because of their relatively low per capita income, these four countries are currently the sole beneficiaries of the 'Cohesion Fund', which explains the collective name sometimes used for them.

68 The four states contributed 12.2% of EC revenues in 1992, while receiving 24.4% of CAP guarantee income. Ibid., Tables la and 2f.

69 Quoted in Pinder, European Community, p. 68. 70 Brigid Laffan and Michael Shackleton, 'The Budget' in Helen Wallace and Wil­

liam, Wall ace (eds), Policy-Making in the European Union, pp. 79-81. See also Alien, 'Cohesion and structural adjustment', pp. 215-17.

71 The Community Budget: the Facts in Figures, Table 2. 72 Biehl, 'The public finances of the Union', p. 141; Alien, 'Cohesion and structural

adjustment', pp. 217-18. 73 Financing the European Union, p. 25. 74 Ibid., Annex 8, Table lb. 75 Ibid., Annex 8, Table 6b. 76 Calculated for the three years 1995-1997. Ibid. 77 The role of the Netherlands as a major port for the export of agricultural products

from other member states probably overstated the benefits of CAP spending to its domestic economy in the 1980s. The sharp deterioration in the Netherlands' position in the 1990s is due, at least in part, to the shift in CAP spending away from export restitution towards direct farm assistance. Ibid., pp. 25-6.

78 For example, see 'Dismal in Berlin', The Economist, 3 April 1999. 79 Financing the European Union, Table 9. 80 Madeleine O. Hosli, 'Voting power in the EC Council of Ministers', International

Organisation, 47, 4, Autumn 1993, p. 635. 81 'Annual Report of the Court of Auditors for 1989', Official Journal of the European

Communities, 12 December 1990, pp. 76-7. 82 Christine Ingebritsen, 'Pulling in different directions: the Europeanization of

Scandinavian political economies' in Peter Katzenstein (ed.), Tamed Power: Ger­many in Europe, Corn ell University Press, 1997, pp. 167-94.

83 The European Commission is based in Brussels, and most meetings of the Euro­pean Parliament are held there. Luxembourg is the headquarters for the Eur­opean Court ofjustice, the European Investment Bank, the Court of Auditors and the Parliament's general secretariat.

84 Financing the European Union, Annex 8, Table 4. 85 One example of how this works in practice is the distribution of Cohesion Fund

resources (equivalent to 2.75 billion ECU in 1997). Established in 1992 in order to help the four 'cohesion states' prepare for monetary union, it was agreed that

Notes 199

Spain should receive 55.1% of the total funds, Greece 17.9%, Portugal 17.9% and reland 9.1%. In 1997, this resulted in allocations of 38.5 ECU per capita to Spain, 47 ECU per capita to Greece, 49.9 ECU per capita to Portugal, and 67.1 ECU per capita to Ireland: a direct inverse correlation between size and per capita allocation. 'Court of Auditors - Annual Report concerning the financial year 1997', Official Journal of the European Communities, 17 November 1998, p. XXV. Also see Allen, 'Cohesion and structural adjustment', p. 219 and p. 232, note 11.

86 Andrew Cottey, 'Central Europe transformed: security and cooperation on NATO's new frontier', Contemporary Security Policy, 20, 2, August 1999, pp. 1-30.

87 'Agenda 2000', Communication of the Commission DOC 97/6, Strasbourg, 15 July 1997.

88 European Commission, The Effects on the Union's Policies of Enlargement to the Applicant Countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Agenda 2000 Impact Study), Euro­pean Commission, 1997. GDP is calculated at PPP.

89 Alan Mayhew, Recreating Europe: the European Union's Policy towards Central and Eastern Europe, Cambridge University Press, 1998, p. 139.

90 The euro, which came into being on 1 January 1999, has the same value as the ECU.

91 Berlin European Council - Presidency Conclusions, Press Release 00100, 26 March 1999.

92 Ibid. 93 This increased cost can be calculated as the sum of: (a) the budgeted total of

spending in new members. The Berlin Summit agreed that this will be E14.2 billion (at 1999 prices) by 2006, or 0.16% of projected EU-15 GNP; plus (b) that part of the unallocated margin in the budget (worth 0.14% of EU-15 GNP) that is used to cover transitional arrangements: perhaps a further E4-5 billion if rapid enlargement takes place; minus (c) the contributions that new members them­selves make to the common budget, perhaps equivalent to around E3-4 billion a year by 2006. Berlin European Council- Presidency Conclusions; European Commis­sion, 'The new financial framework', Agenda 2000 Impact Study, 1997, para 5. Financing the European Union, p. 27 also estimated the average increase in EU-15 net contribution to be 0.15% of GNP.

94 Heather Grabbe, Memorandum published in Appendix 4, House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, European Union Enlargement, HC86 (1998/99), March 1999, para 4.

95 Michael Smith, 'EU Summit: UK and Spain are big winners', Financial Times, 27 March 1999.

96 Berlin European Council- Presidency Conclusions. 97 Michael Smith, 'EU Summit: UK and Spain are big winners'. 98 Michael Smith, 'EU Summit: defeat for market liberalisation', Financial Times, 27

March 1999. 99 Evidence by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Appendix 15, House of

Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, European Union Enlargement, para SO. 100 In subsequent negotiations the UK also received an increase in structural funds.

Brian Groom and Mike Smith, 'EU aid: UK is a surprise winner with £1.5 billion', Financial Times, 2 July 1999.

101 James Blitz, Quentin Peel and Michael Smith, 'Schroder wins concession from Italy', Financial Times, 19 March 1999; Martin Walker, 'Exhausted EU leaders agree budget at dawn', The Guardian, 27 March 1999.

200 Notes

102 Germany's contribution to the financing of the UK rebate will be reduced from two-thirds of its normal share to only one-quarter, saving it around E300 million a year. Germany will also benefit from the reduction in the share of the total budget derived from VAT.

103 Agenda 2000 Impact Study, Section 3.1 and Statistical Table. 104 Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. 105 This assumes 6% annual real growth in Poland's GDP. 106 Spending on structural operations in Greece, Portugal and Spain was E12 billion

in 1997, and is expected to remain around this level in 1998 and 1999. Financing the European Union, op cit, Table lb. The Berlin summit agreed that structural spending in the 'cohesion countries' would be maintained at 1999 levels during 2000-06. No decision has been made on structural spending in subsequent years.

107 Berlin European Council - Presidency Conclusions. 108 Heather Grabbe, Memorandum, p. 3. 109 Total planned structural spending on new and future candidate members will be

E14.7 billion (at 1999 prices) in 2006. This compares with a 1999 PHARE budget of E1.5 billion.

110 1996 figures. World DevelopmentIndicators 1997, pp. 342-4. 111 Agenda 2000 Impact Study, Section 4.2. 112 One-third of the agricultural area and farm population in the ten Central and

East European applicants is in these two countries. Mayhew, Recreating Europe, p. 242.

113 Financing the European Union, Table lb. 114 This assumes that Bulgaria and Romania are the sole recipients of 'pre-accession'

spending by 2006. Since all other associate states in Central and Eastern Europe might have joined the EU by that date, this is a plausible assumption.

115 Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. 116 Slovenia is clearly an exception. Although Croatia appears relatively well-quali­

fied for membership in economic terms, the EU is likely to insist on significant changes in other areas (such as the treatment of displaced minorities and poli­tical freedom) before opening accession negotiations.

117 Ralph Atkins, 'Post-war: stability pact set to win', Financial Times, lOJune 1999. A recent unofficial study has estimated total costs of around E10 billion a year if Romania and Bulgaria are also included. Michael Emerson, A System for Post-War South-East Europe, Centre for European Policy Studies, Working Paper 131, May 1999.

118 For the purposes of this calculation, it is assumed that new members obtain votes in the Council of Ministers equivalent to those of existing members with com­parable populations. The ten ex-communist states are the Czech Republic, Esto­nia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia. Their combined population of 103 million compares with a combined population for the EU's four biggest states of 256 million.

119 Mayhew, Recreating Europe, p. 140. 120 EU net contributions to other member states are not included in OECD statistics

for either overseas development assistance (ODA) or official assistance (OA), the two main components of 'aid'. If these net EU contributions are also included, the largest donors of concessional aid in 1996 were Germany ($21.7 billion), the US ($11.1 billion), France ($9.8 billion) and Japan ($9.7 billion). Calculated at El = $1.10. World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publica­tions, 1998, p. 338; Financing the European Union, Table 6b.

Notes 201

121 The main exception to the rule of common formulae is the British rebate, which continues to generate considerable resentment precisely because it provides for special treatment for one state. Even in this case, however, Britain's entitlement is calculated on the basis of a complex formula that has remained essentially unchanged since 1984.

5 Development Assistance

1 Paul]ohnson, Modem Times, Harper & Row, 1985, p. 439. 2 Judith Randle and Tony German (eds), The Reality of Aid 1997/8, Earthscan, 1997,

p.198. 3 Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid in Development, 1997, p. 10. 4 Ibid., p. 9. 5 Pascaline Winand, Eisenhower, Kennedy and the United States of Europe, Macmillan,

1993, Chapter 3. 6 Michael J Hogan, The Marshall Plan: America, Britain, and the reconstruction of

Western Europe, 1947-1952, Cambridge University Press, 1987, p. 438. Also see Geir Lundestad, 'Empire' by Integration: The United States and European Integration, 1945-1997, Oxford University Press, 1998.

7 Robert Wade, 'East Asia's economic success: conflicting perspectives, partial insights, shaky Evidence', World Politics, 44, 2, January 1992, p. 312. Richard Stubbs, 'Beyond the two-paradigm debate: geopolitics, historical sequencing and East Asia's economic success', paper presented to International Studies Associa­tion, San Diego, 1996, p. 6.

8 At 1997 prices. Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid, p. 49. 9 John White, The Politics of Foreign Aid, Bodley Head, 1974, p. 202.

10 Paul Mosley, Overseas Aid: Its Defence and Reform, Wheatsheaf, 1987, p. 31. 11 David Halloran Lumsdaine, Moral Vision in International Politics: the Foreign Aid

Regime 1949-1989, Princeton University Press, 1993, p. 133. 12 Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid, p. 9. 13 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 83. 14 White, The politics of Foreign Aid, p. 232. 15 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 87. 16 Mosley, Overseas Aid, p. 25. 17 OECD DAC website, http://www.oecd.org/dac/htm/oda5097.HTM. 1999. 18 Mancur Olson, Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, 'An economic theory of alliances',

Review of Economics and Statistics, 48, 1966, p. 278. 19 Joan Edelman Spero, The Politics of International Economic Relations, Unwin

Hyman, 1990, p. 162. 20 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 242. 21 The Reality of Aid 1997/8, p. 246. This excludes aid channelled through the

European Union, which accounted for a further 9.1% of total ODA. 22 Winand, Eisenhower, Kennedy and the United States of Europe, p. 169. The OECD's

initial membership included all non-communist European states (with the exception of Finland, which joined in 1969). Three other non-European 'West­ern' economies joined over the next 12 years (Japan in 1964, Australia in 1971 and New Zealand in 1973). Membership thereafter remained steady (at 24) until 1994-96, when five new members (Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary) joined in rapid succession.

202 Notes

23 Irving B. Kravis and Michael W. S. Davenport, 'The political arithmetic of inter­national burdensharing', Journal of Political Economy, LXXI, 4, August 1963, p. 310; Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 36.

24 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 265. 25 Ibid., p. 246. 26 At 1997 prices. Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid, p. 68. 27 Ibid., p. 10. 28 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 241. OECD statistics. 29 Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid, p. 68. 30 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 133. 31 Congressional Budget Office, The Role of Foreign Aid, p. 68. 32 Roger Riddell, Foreign Aid Reconsidered, James Currey, 1987, pp. 110-11. 33 Alain Noel and Jean-Philippe Therien, 'The welfare state and foreign aid', Interna­

tional Organisation, 49, 3, Summer 1995, pp. 523-54. 34 UN Development Programme, Human Development Report 1998, Oxford University

Press, 1998. 35 See Table 5.1. 36 OECD figures. The tenth highest recipient of UK aid in both years was Turkey,

with around 2% of gross disbursements. 37 Peter J. Schraeder, Steven W. Hook and Bruce Taylor, 'Clarifying the foreign aid

puzzle', World Politics, 50, 2, January 1998, p. 317. 38 'France and Africa', The Economist, 23 July 1994. 39 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 164. 40 Ibid., p. 133. 41 Ben Pimlott, Harold Wilson, HarperCollins, 1993, p. 178. 42 Mark Boyer, International Cooperation and Public Goods: Opportunities for the Western

Alliance, John Hopkins University Press, 1993, p. 77. 43 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 133. 44 Ibid., pp. 161-2. 45 Oliver Morrisey, Brian Smith and Edward Horesh, British Aid and International

Trade: Aid Policy Making 1979-89, Open University Press, 1992, p. 15. 46 'Arms and the lady', The Economist, 15 January 1994. 47 Mark A. Boyer, 'Trading public goods in the Western alliance system', Journal of

Conflict Resolution, 33, 4, December 1989, p. 723. 48 Cited in Shafiqul Islam (ed.), Yen for Development: Japanese Foreign Aid and the

Politics of Burdensharing, Council for Foreign Relations, 1991, p. 78. 49 Ibid., pp. vi-vii. 50 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 89. 51 Rob Steven, Japan and the New World Order: Global Investments, Trade and Finance,

Macmillan, 1996, p. 236. 52 Comments by a spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance in 1991, as quoted in

ibid., p. 244. 53 Islam, Yen for Development, p. 79. 54 Ibid., p. 78. Also see Ming Wan, 'Spending strategies in world politics: how Japan

has used its economic power in the last decade', International Studies Quarterly, 39, I, March 1995, pp. 85-108.

55 David P. Rapkin and Jonathan R. Strand, US-Japan Leadership Sharing in the IMF and World Bank, paper presented to International Studies Association conference, San Diego, April 1996, p. 12. See also Denis Yasutomo, The New Multilateralism and Japan's Foreign Policy, St Martin's Press, 1995; David P. Rapkin, Joseph U. Elston and

Notes 203

Jonathan R. Strand, 'Institutional adjustment to changed power distribution: Japan and the United States in the IMF', Global Governance, 3, 2, 1997.

56 Rapkin and Strand, US-Japan Leadership, p. 28. 57 Yasutomo, The New Mu/tilateralism, p. 74. 58 Peter Burnell, Foreign Aid in a Changing World, Open University Press, 1997, p. 145. 59 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 165. 60 Boyer, International Cooperation, p. 76. 61 Helen Wall ace, Budgetary Politics: the Finances of the European Communities, Alien &

Unwin, 1980, p. 53. Payments to the EDF are not normally included in figures for net contributions to the EC/EU general budget.

62 See Table 5.1. 63 Boyer, 'Trading public goods', p. 717. 64 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 3. 65 Noel and Therien, 'The Welfare State and Foreign aid'. 66 Lumsdaine, Moral Vision, p. 243. 67 Olav Stokke (ed.), Western Middle Powers and Global Poverty: the Determinants of the

Aid Policies of Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, Scandin­avian Institute of African Studies, 1989, p. 278.

68 Noel and Therien, 'The Welfare State and Foreign aid' p. 542. 69 By contrast, colonial links have had a lasting impact on Dutch aid, with Indonesia

and Surinam remaining as major recipients. 70 Peter]. Schraeder et aI., 'Clarifying the Foreign aid puzzle', p. 315. 71 Arnold Kemp, 'Norway's secret pipeline to ANC', The Observer, 22 September 1996. 72 Cranford Pratt (ed.), Internationalism Under Strain: the North-South Policies of

Canada, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, University of Toronto Press, 1989, p. 7. 73 Clyde Sanger, Safe and Sound: Disarmament and Development in the 1980s, Zed Press,

1982, p. 107. 74 NATO Review, Spring 1999, pp. 31-3. 75 'Financial flows to developing countries in 1998', OECD Press Release, 10 June

1999. 76 OECD donors provided $2400 million of ODA (at 1996 prices and exchange

rates) to Cambodia, Cuba, Laos, Mongolia, North Korea and Vietnam in 1997. OECD, Geographical Distribution of Financial Flows to Aid Recipients 1993-97, OECD, 1999, pp. 66-7. This compared with only $700 million (at 1996 prices and exchange rates) in 1991. All figures in this section are at 1996 prices and exchange rates.

77 OECD donors provided $1300 million of ODA (at 1996 prices and exchange rates) to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turk­menistan and Uzbekistan in 1997. This compared with only $100 million in 1991. OECD, Geographical Distribution, pp. 66-7.

78 OECD donors provided $2100 million of ODA to Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Mace­donia, Slovenia and Yugoslavia in 1997. Ibid., pp. 66-7. This compares with to a figure of only $500 million in 1991. 79 Ibid.

80 Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovak Republic and Ukraine. From 1997, aid to Mol­dova is included in ODA.

81 OECD, Geographical Distribution, p. 66. 82 Ibid., p. 67. 83 Total ODA to Pakistan fell from $1.6 billion in 1991 to $0.6 billion in 1997. Ibid.

204 Notes

84 Ibid.; and previous editions. 85 Total ODA to Indonesia fell from $2.3 million in 1992 to $0.9 billion in 1997.

Ibid. All of Indonesia's major donors in 1992 (Austria, France, Germany and Japan) reduced the level of their ODA sharply over this period.

86 Total ODA to the Philippines fell from $1.9 billion in 1992 to $0.7 billion in 1997. Ibid.

87 Total ODA to Kenya fell from $1.4 billion in 1990 to $0.5 billion in 1997. Total ODA to Congo/Zaire fell from $1.9 billion in 1990 to $0.6 billion in 1991 and $0.2 billion in 1997. Ibid. Also see OECD, Development Cooperation 1997 Report: Efforts and Policies of Members of the Development Assistance Committee, OECD, 1997, p. 62.

88 Total ODA to Somalia fell from $0.7 billion in 1992 and $1.0 billion in 1993 to $0.1 billion in 1997. OECD, Geographical Distribution. Somalia's biggest donors in 1992-93 were Italy and the United States.

89 Andrew Bennett, Joseph LepgoId and Danny Unger, 'Burdensharing in the Per­sian Gulf War', International Organisation, 48, 1, Winter 1994, p. 57.

90 Total ODA to Egypt fell from an annual average of $5.1 billion in 1991-92 to an annual average of $2.2 billion in 1996-97. OECD, Geographical Distribu­tion.

91 OECD, Development Cooperation 1997 Report, p. 57. 92 Total ODA to China rose from an annual average of $2.4 billion in 1990-91 to an

annual average of $3.5 billion in 1993-94 before falling back to $2.4 billion in 1996-97. OECD, Geographical Distribution.

93 Ibid., p. 120. 94 South Asia is defined here to include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar,

Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Total ODA to South Asia fell from $9.4 billion in 1990 to $4.5 billion in 1997. Ibid., pp. 66-7.

95 Total ODA to India fell from $5.0 billion in 1985 to $3.3 billion in 1990 to $1.8 billion in 1997. Ibid.

96 World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publications, 1998, p.343.

97 Ibid., p. 177. 98 Total ODA to sub-Saharan Africa fell from $21.4 billion in 1990 to $16.2 billion in

1997. OECD, Geographical Distribution. 99 World Development Indicators 1998, pp. 342-4.

100 Including Norway, Switzerland and all EU countries combined. 1998 figures from OECD News Release, 10 June 1999.

101 OECD, Development Cooperation 1997 Report, p. A96. By comparison, the US contributed 20% of DAC assistance to these countries, France 8%, Britain 4% and Japan 4%.

102 For example, see Joseph Hanlon, Mozambique: Who calls the Shots?, James Currey, 1991, p. 194.

103 OECD News Release, 10 June 1999. 104 Judith Randel and Tony German (eds), The Reality of Aid 1998/9, Earthscan, 1998,

pp. 130-6. 105 World Development Indicators 1997, pp. 310-12. 106 Andrew Jack and Michela Wrong, 'Out of Africa', Financial Times, 5 July 1997. 107 The Reality of Aid 1997/8, p. 64; The Reality of Aid 1998/9, p. 114.

Notes 205

108 The Reality of Aid 1997/8, p. 63. French Polynesia and New Caledonia were the two largest recipients of French ODA in 1997. Together with other Overseas Territories, they accounted for 16% of total French ODA.

109 HM Treasury, Financial Statement and Budget Report 1996-97, November 1995. 110 HM Treasury, Comprehensive Spending Review, July 1998, Chapter 16. 111 OECD, Development Cooperation 1997 Report, p. A8l. 112 OECD, Geographical Distribution. 113 OECD, Development Cooperation 1997 Report, Table 39. 114 Ibid., Table 49. 115 The Reality of Aid 1997/8, p. 13l. 116 Aid to Israel was excluded from figures for ODA from 1997. 117 GECD News Release, lOJune 1999. 118 Michael O'Hanlon, 'Background study' in Report of an Independent Task Force,

Financing America's Leadership Council on Foreign Relations, 1997, p. 37. Also see The Reality of Aid 1997/8, p. 153.

119 Michael O'Hanlon and Carol Graham, A Half Penny on the Federal Dollar: the Future of Development Aid, Brookings Institution, 1997.

120 World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publications, 1998, p. 348. 121 Figures are for net disbursements. OECD, Development Cooperation 1998 Report,

February 1999, Table 32. 122 Larry Rohter with Christopher Wren, 'US to consider $1 billion more for Colum­

bia Drug War', New York Times, 17 July 1999. 123 US per capita GNP in 1996 (at PPP) was $28000, compared with $7700 for

Mexico. Germany's per capita GNP in 1996 was $21100, compared to Poland's $6000. World DevelopmentIndicators 1997, pp. 12-14.

124 OECD, Development Cooperation 1997 Report, p. All. 125 Ibid., p. A49. 126 GECD News Release, 10 June 1999. Also see Michiyo Nakamoto, 'Japan: aid loans

at record Y910 billion', Financial Times, 25 August 1999. 127 The Reality of Aid 1998/9, p. 53. 128 GECD News Release, 10 June 1999. 129 Noel and Therien, 'The Welfare State and Foreign aid', p. 552. 130 ODA was equivalent to 19% of the imports of goods and services of all low­

income countries (except China and India) in 1996. Although two of the biggest recipients in absolute terms, ODA accounted respectively for only 1.5% and 3.3% of the imports of China and India. World Development Indicators 1998, pp. 342-344.

131 The Reality of Aid 1998/9, p. 10.

6 Global Regimes

1 Including both the regular and peacekeeping budgets. 2 Russia, Ukraine and ten other Central and Eastern European states have also

accepted limits on their future emissions. As a result of the massive rundown in pollution-intensive industries in these countries since the end of communism, however, the limits that have been agreed do not impose significant additional constraints on emission levels.

3 For example, see Brett Schaefer et aI, 'Understanding the limits of globalism', in Issue 98: The Candidate's Briefing Book, Heritage Foundation, 1998.

206 Notes

4 For further discussion, see Anthony Parsons, From Cold War to Hot Peace: UN Interventions 1947-1995, Penguin, 1995, pp. vii-viii.

5 UN General Assembly Press Release GA/AB/3282, 18 December 1998. Global GDP, in 1996 was $28584 billion. World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publications, 1998, p. 182.

6 Financing an Effective United Nations: a Report of the Independent Advisory Group on UN Financing, Ford Foundation, 1993, p. 6.

7 Michael Renner, Peacekeeping Expenditures 1947-97, Global PolicyForum website, March 1999.

8 United Nations Department for Public Information, Facts About the United Nations, October 1998; United Nations, Press Briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Manage­ment, 7 October 1998.

9 United Nations, Basic Facts About the United Nations, 1995, p. 150. 10 United Nations, Report of the Committee on Contributions, General Assembly, Offi­

cial Records Fifty-First Session, Supplement No. 11 (A/51/11), 1997. 11 'High-income OECD states' includes all OECD members except Czech Republic,

Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South Korea and Turkey. 12 UN Secretariat, Status of contributions as at 31 October 1998, ST/ADM/SER.B/532 of

3 November 1998; UN General Assembly. 13 Setting the Record Straight: the UN Financial Crisis, UN Department of Public Infor­

mation DPI/1815/Rev. 14, October 1998. 14 Status of contributions as at 31 October 1998; UN General Assembly. 15 David Armstrong, Lorna Lloyd and John Redmond, From Versailles to Maastricht:

International Organisations in the 20th Century, Macmillan, 1996, pp. 62-7. 16 Jeffrey Laurenti, National Taxpayers, International Organisations: Sharing the Burden

of Financing the United Nations, UNA-US, 1995, p. 21. 17 Robert W. Gregg, About Face? The United States and the United Nations, Lynne,

Rienner, 1993, pp. 65-6. 18 Ibid., p. 68. 19 Ibid., pp. 71-9. 20 Laurenti, National Taxpayers, International Organisations, p. 8; Simon Duke, 'The UN

finance crisis: a history and analysis', International Relations, August 1992, p. 135. 21 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1993-1994, Bras­

sey's, 1993, pp. 253-8. 22 Stephen Schlesinger, 'The end of idealism', World Policy Journal, 15, 4, Winter

1998/99, p. 39. 23 Jesse Helms, 'Saving the UN: a challenge to the next Secretary-General', Foreign

Affairs, 75, 5, September-October 1996, p. 7. 24 Bruce Cl ark, 'Albright makes plea for IMF and UN funding', Financial Times, 14

January 1998; UNA-US, 'Clinton Administration again requests UN arrears money', Backgrounder Briefing, February 1999.

25 UNA-US, 'Clinton Administration again requests UN arrears money'. 26 Status of contributions as at 31 October 1998, op cit. 27 Sam Daws, 'Seeking seats, votes and vetoes', The World Today, October 1997, p.

256. 28 For a perceptive analysis of the debate on UN Security Council reform, see

the statement of Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan to the UN General Assembly, 4 December 1997. Web address at: http://www.globalpolicy.org/security /docs/ singapor.htm

Notes 207

29 'Interview with the German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer', Die Zeit, 12 November 1998, translated in http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/docs/ fischer.htm

30 Gerald Segal, 'Japan's other crisis', Newsweek Japan, 25 January 1999. 31 Gregg, About Face?, p. 63; Armstrong et al., From Versailles to Maastricht, p. 81. 32 Armstrong et al., From Versailles to Maastricht, pp. 116-21. 33 Erskine Childers with Brian Urquhart, Renewing the United Nations System, Dag

Hammarskj61d Foundation, 1994, p. 102. 34 Laurenti, National Taxpayers, International Organisations, p. 46. 35 United Nations, Report of the Committee on Contributions, Annex 5. 36 Jeffrey Laurenti, The New Assessment Scale: an Analysis of the Rate Revisions Adopted

by the 52nd General Assembly, UNA-US, 28 January 1998, p. 2. 37 Seventeen members were due to lose their General Assembly vote as of mid-1997.

Of these, only four - Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Yugoslavia - were assessed at a level above the 0.01 % floor. United Nations, Report of the Committee on Contribu­tions, p. 19.

38 Status of contributions as at 31 October 1998, Annex H. 39 Ibid. 40 Composition of the Secretariat: Report of the Secretary-General, General Assembly

document Al52/580 of 6 November 1997, Table 4. 41 United Nations, Report of the Committee on Contributions, pp. 16, 22. 42 World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publications, pp. 12-

14. Also see Lawrence R. Klein and Kanta Marwah, Burdensharing in Support of the United Nations, Yale University Library, June 1997, http://www.library.yale.edu/ UN/burdenshar/

43 'American pie', The Economist, 10 January 1998. 44 World Development Indicators 1998, p. 14. 45 Independent Working Group on the Future of the United Nations, The United

Nations in its Second Half-Century, Ford Foundation, 1995, p. 46. 46 The literature on new sources of global funding, from which these suggestions are

taken, includes Eleanor B. Steinberg and Joseph A. Yager, New Means of Financing International Needs, The Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 1978; Brandt Commission, North-South: a Programme for Survival, MIT Press, 1980; Ruben P. Mendez, International Public Finance, Oxford University Press, 1992; Hans D'Or­ville and Dragoljub Najman, 'A new system to finance the United Nations', Security Dialogue, 25, 2, 1994, pp. 135--44; Overseas Development Institute, New Sources of Finance for Development, OD! Briefing Paper, February 1996; Global Policy Forum, Alternative Financing for the UN and Global Taxes and Charges, http://www.globalpolicy.org/finance/alternat/, March 1999.

47 This has been a significant problem within the European Union, which relies on national governments to collect customs duties and value-added tax (VAT) rev­enues.

48 One of the most popular proposals (the 'Tobin Tax') could be an exception to this judgement. In the light of the problems created by instability in international financial markets, a tax on international currency transactions has proved particu­larly popular in recent years. Yet critics have pointed out that all jurisdictions would have to adhere to it if there were not to be a risk of massive relocation of business from established centres to offshore tax havens. Whether this would be a risk in practice, however, would depend crucially on the level at which the Tax was set. 'Floating the Tobin Tax', The Economist, 13 July 1996; Nick Mathiason,

208 Notes

'Tobin or not Tobin? Nice idea, but out of the question', The Observer, 8 August 1999.

49 Brigid Laffan, The Finances of the European Union, Macmillan, 1997, pp. 40-51. 50 European Commission, Financing the European Union: Report on the Operation of the

Own Resources System, October 1998, p. 2. 51 Berlin European Council - Presidency Conclusions, Press Release 00100, 26 March

1999. 52 'A review of possible own resources for the European Union', Annex 2 of Euro­

pean Commission, Financing the European Union. For a perceptive analysis of these proposals, see lain Begg and Nigel Grinwade, Paying for Europe, Sheffield Academic Press, 1998, especially pp. 106-40.

53 Berlin European Council - Presidency Conclusions. 54 Cliff Kincaid, 'The United Nations debt: who owes whom?', Cato Institute Policy

Analysis No. 304, April 231998, p. 6. 55 'American pie', The Economist, 10 January 1998, p. 58. 'Total annual cost of UN

programmes about $4.6 billion, while $778 billion spent on arms, Fifth Commit­tee told', UN Press Release GA/AB/3252, 29 October 1998.

56 David Hannay, 'Paying for the UN: a suitable case for treatment', The World Today, June 1996, p. 161.

57 Setting the Record Straight: Facts About the United Nations, UN Public Inquiries Unit, 1998.

58 'American pie', p. 58. 59 This condition was included in the administration's 1997 agreement with the

Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Jeffrey Laurenti, The New Assessment Scale: an Analysis of the Rate Revisions Adopted by the 52nd General Assembly, p. 3.

60 Jeffrey Laurenti, National Taxpayers, International Organisations, p. 21; Phyllis Ben­nis, Calling the Shots: How Washington Dominates Today's UN, Olive Branch Press, 1996, p. 58.

61 D'Orville and Najman, 'A new system to finance the United Nations', p. 140. Also see Childers with Urquhart, Renewing the United Nations System, p. 154.

62 'The United Nations heads for bankruptcy', The Economist, 10 February 1996. 63 1996 GNP measured at market prices. World Development Indicators 1998, p. 14. 64 Laurenti, The New Assessment Scale, p. 3. 65 This figure does not include the costs of compensating for a reduced Japanese

assessment, since this will occur irrespective of whether the ceiling is lowered. It also assumes that: (a) the entire cost of reducing the US's share of the budget of the UN and its agencies by 5% is borne by other OECD states; (b) the total annual UN budget for regular and peacekeeping activities is around $2 billion; (c) the total annual assessed budget for other UN agencies (including the WHO, ILO, FAO and IAEA) is around $1.5 billion.

66 For analysis of the extraordinary growth in such regimes since the Second World War, see John W Meyer et ai., 'The structuring of a world environmental regime, 1870-1990', International Organisation, 51, 4, Autumn 1997, pp. 623-52.

67 'Understanding climate change: a beginner's guide to the UN Framework Con­vention', UN Environment Programme Website, January 1997, http://www.unep.ch/ iuc/submenu!begin/beginner.htm

68 'A cooling off period', The Economist, 29 November 1997. Also see Stuart Eizenstat, 'Stick with Kyoto: a sound start on global warming', Foreign Affairs, 77, 3, May/ June 1997, p. 120.

Notes 209

69 Robert Repetto and Jonathan Lash, 'Planetary roulette: gambling with the cli-mate', Foreign Policy, 108, Fall 1997, p. 89.

70 'Understanding climate change', op. cit. 71 Ibid. 72 Owen Greene and Jim Skea (eds), After Kyoto: Making Climate Policy Work, ESRC

Global Environmental Change, Special Briefing Number 1, November 1997. 73 'A warming world', The Economist, 28 June 1997. 74 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, December 1997,

Annex B. Despite being OECD members, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey are not required to make reductions.

75 Christopher Flavin, 'World carbon emissions fall', Worldwatch News Brief, 27 July 1999.

76 Alex Kirby, 'Soaraway US greenhouse forecast', BBC News Online, 25 November 1998.

77 James Meek, '''Hot air" market is set for take-off', The Guardian, 5 March 1998. 78 Paul Brown, 'Britain leads way in greenhouse gas emissions deal', The Guardian,

17 June 1998. The planned reduction in Germany was especially large because of the closure of much of the heavy industry of former East Germany during the 1990s. Other states committed to make reductions were Luxembourg (28%), Denmark (21 %), Austria (13%), Belgium (7.5%), Italy (6.5%) and Nether­lands (6%).

79 Ibid. Sweden was also granted a 4% increase in emissions, compensating for its phasing-out of nuclear power during this period.

80 This assumes that China's emissions continue to grow at the same rate (5% per annum) as during 1980-95. Preliminary figures for 1998, however, show emis­sions falling by 3.7%. Christopher Flavin, 'World carbon emissions fall'.

81 US, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. See Table 6.2. 82 Between 1980 and 1995, CO2 emissions by the 12 largest developing economies,

which together accounted for 70% of emissions unlimited by the Kyoto Protocol, grew by 5.3% per year.

83 World Bank, World Development Report 1992, Oxford University Press, 1992, p. 165. Also see Sten Nilsson and David Pitt, Protecting the Atmosphere: the Climate Change Convention and its Context, Earthscan, 1994, p. 65.

84 Eizenstat, 'Stick with Kyoto', p. 121 reports that 'despite the difficulties at Kyoto, several key developing countries did indicate an interest in participating. A comprehensive diplomatic strategy will engage still more.'

85 The World Bank has estimated that the elimination of energy subsidies could reduce C02 emissions by 29% in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and by 11% in developing countries. World Development Report 1992, p. 161.

86 Repetto and Lash, 'Planetary roulette', p. 92. Gregg Easterbrook, A Moment on the Earth, Penguin, 1995, p. 298.

87 Easterbrook, A Moment on the Earth, p. 177. 88 Martin Wolf, 'Licence to pollute', Financial Times, 2 December 1996. 89 Warwick McGibbon and Peter Wilcoxen, 'A better way to slow global climate

change', Brookings Policy Brief 17, 1997, p. 4. 90 'Pay up and play the game', The Economist, 18 September 1999. 91 Figures for 1995-97. Financing the European Union, Annex 8, Table 2f; Table 4.1. 92 See, for example, Overseas Development Institute, Global Governance: an Agenda

for the Renewal of the United Nations?, OD! Briefing Paper 2, July 1999.

210 Notes

7 Continuity and Change

1 G. John Ikenberry, 'Institutions, strategic restraint, and the persistence of American, postwar order', International Security, 23, 3, Winter 1998/1999, p.43.

2 Malcolm Chalmers, Biting the Bullet: a European Defence Option for Britain, Institute for Public Policy Research, 1992.

3 Andrew Moravcsik, The Choice for Europe: Social Purpose and State Power from Messina to Maastricht, UCL Press, 1999, p. 5.

4 'American trade policy', The Economist, 30January 1999. David Held and Anthony McGrew, David Goldbatt and Jonathan Perraton, Global Transformations: Politics, Economics and Culture, Polity Press, 1999, pp. 180-I.

5 Zanny Minton Beddoes, 'Global finance survey', The Economist, 30 January 1999. 6 Geir Lundestad, 'Empire' by Integration: the United States and European Integration,

1945-1997, Oxford University Press, 1998, pp. 148-50. 7 Other dissidents included China, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Sudan and Yemen. Alessandra

Stanley, 'US dissents, but accord is reached on war-crimes court', New York Times, 18 July 1998. Also see David Manasian, 'The conscience of mankind: a survey of human rights law', The Economist,S December 1998, p. 13.

8 John Grimond, 'The burden of normality: a survey of Germany', The Economist, 6 February 1999, p. 3.

9 For the most widely discussed academic exposition of this argument, see John, Mearsheimer, 'Back to the future: instability in Europe After the Cold War', International Security, 15, 1, Summer 1990. Also see Kenneth Waltz, 'The emerging, structure of international politics', International Security, 18, 2, Fall 1993.

10 George Friedman and Meredith Lebard, The Coming War with Japan, St Martin's Press, 199I.

11 'Could it happen again?', The Economist, 20 February 1999. 12 Eugene Gholz, Daryl G. Press and Harvey M. Sapolsky, 'Come home, America: the

strategy of restraint in the face of temptation', International Security, 21, 4, Spring 1997, calls for the disengagement of US military forces from the rest of the world, withdrawal from NATO and other foreign alliances, and the halving of US mili­tary spending.

13 Mark Nelson, Bridging the Atlantic: Domestic Politics and Euro-American Relations, Centre for European Reform, 1997, p. 16.

14 Martin Feldstein, 'EMU and international conflict', Foreign Affairs, 76, 6, Novem­ber/December 1997, p. 72. On the parallels between the early United States and the European Union, also see Daniel H. Deudney, 'The Philadelphian system: sovereignty, arms control, and balance of power in the American states-union, circa 1787-1861', International Organisation, 49, 2, Spring 1995, pp. 191-228.

15 Thomas U. Berger, 'From sword to chrysanthemum: Japan's culture of anti-mili­tarism', International Security, 17,4, Spring 1993, p. 148.

16 Lundestad, 'Empire' by Integration, p. 153. 17 Tony German and Judith Randel, 'Targeting the end of absolute poverty: trends in

development assistance' in Judith Randel and Tony German (eds), The Reality of Aid 1998/9, Earthscan, 1998, p. 11.

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Overseas Development Institute, 1979. Williams, Phi!, The Senate and US Troops in Europe, Macmillan, 1985. Winard, Pascaline, Eisenhower, Kennedy and the United States of Europe, Macmillan,

1993. World Bank, World Development Report 1992, Oxford University Press, 1992. World Bank, World Development Indicators 1997, World Bank Publications, 1997. World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank Publications, 1998. World Trade Organisation, 'Membership of the World Trade Organisation', World

Trade Organisation document WT/INF/6/Rev.5 of 3 February 1999. Wulf, Herbert, Arms Industry Limited, SIPRI/Oxford University Press, 1994. 'X' (George Kennan), 'The sources of Soviet conflict', Foreign Affairs, 25, 4, July 1947,

556-82. Yasutomo, Denis, The New Multilateralism and Japan's Foreign Policy, St Martin's Press,

1995. Yost, David, France's Deterrent Posture and Security in Europe Part If: Strategic and Arms

Control Implications, Adelphi Paper 195, International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1984/5.

Young, John W., France, the Cold War and the Western Alliance 1944-49: French Foreign Policy and Post-war Europe, Leicester University Press, 1990.

Young, John W., Britain and European Unity 1945-1992, Macmillan, 1993.

Index

Adenauer, Konrad, 86 Aerospatiale, 61-2 Afghanistan, 131, 132 Africa, 67-8, 92, 119, 121, 122, 130, 132,

133, 135, 141, 148, 165, 181 African National Congress (ANC), 130 Agency for International Development,

120 agricultural revolution, 12 AIDS, 181 Albania, 72 Algerian War, 35, 38, 52, 83, 117 Alien, David, 89-90 Alliance for Progress, 120 Andreatta, Filippo, 28 Angola, 3 Antarctica Treaty, 159 Arab League, 4 Argentina, 153, 164, 174 arms control, 9, 12 arms industry, 44-7, 60-3 Asian Development Bank, 126 Asian economic development, 117,

132-3, 140, 141, 165, 177, 182 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

(APEC), 18, 152 Association of South-East Asian Nations

(ASEAN),7 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), 18 Austria, 76, 96, 110, 129 Australia, 25, 117, 152, 158, 166, 175

balance of power, 14 bananas, 139 Bangladesh, 121, 122, 125, 136 Belgium, 17,52,92,98, 117 Berger, Thomas, 28 Berlin, 44 Berlin EU summit (1999), 101-4, 112,

156, 182 Bolivia, 120 Bosnia, 58, 66-7, 75, 77, 144, 148, 150 Bottom-Up Review (1992),61 Boyer, Mark, 124

Brandt, Willy, 127 Brazil, 120, 153, 154 Bretton Woods, 32 British Aerospace, 61 Brookings Institution, 54 Brussels Treaty (1954),9,41,45 Bulgaria, 77, 99, 106, 108-9 burdensharing, xi-xiii

asymmetry and, xii, 23-5, 47-8, 52, 76, 81, 86, 98-9, 112-13, 115-16, 124-7, 159, 169-70, 182

bargains, xiii, 6, 74, 83, 89, 97, 110, 11~ 115, 15~ 15~ 182

definition of, xi burdensharing regimes, 6-10

formula, 6-8, 145, 152 indicative, 6, 9-10, 21-2, 41-2, 116,

119 transparency and, 9, 22, 119

Burma, 132 Bush, George, 148, 158

Cambodia, 73, 131, 148 Camp David agreement (1979), 9, 121 Canada, 8, 23, 52, 86, 88, 130, 139, 150,

151, 15~ 15~ 15~ 161, 166 Carbon dioxide emissions, 160-2 Cato Institute, 157 Central Asia, 64, 178 Chile, 120 China, 7,16,19,22,73,74, 79,133,

136, 153, 154, 160, 163, 164 nuclear weapons and, 12, 36-7

Chi rac, President, 53 civilian powers, xiii, 15, 17-18, 19,

27-30,39-40,43-4,57,69-74,81, 91, 124-8, 150-1

post-war occupation of, 27-30, 43-4 Climate Change Convention, 1,9,

143-4, 159-65 coal production, 163 coefficient of variation, 23-4, 50 Cold War, 1,4-5, 14,47-8,63, 115, 141

defence spending during, 21-48

223

224 Index

Cold War (Contd.) development assistance during,

115-31, 141 end of, 1, 15,20,49,69, 78, 131, 141,

168-9 origins of, 30-1, 116-17

Colombia, 120, 138 Commonwealth, 92,117,122 competitiveness, 11 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),

55 Concert of Europe, 12, 19 Congo, 151 Congressional Budget Office, 54 Connor, Joseph, 8 conscription, 52-4, 70-1 Copenhagen European Council, 99 Croatia, 57-8, 72, 75 Cuba, 131, 139 currency unions, 174 Cyprus, 3, 23, 99, 107 Czech Republic, 76-77, 99-100

Day ton settlement, 58 defence spending, 2-5, 21-79, 81, 131

disparities in, 23-5, 76,81 economic effects of, 25-7, 51, 131

de Gaulle, President Charles, 35, 37, 83, 91

Delors, Jacques, 89, 94 democratic peace, 12, 14,20, 78-9, 171,

177,179,180 Denmark, 4, 8, 52, 57, 87, 91, 92, 97, 98,

115, 136-7 development assistance, 11, 19, 79, 112,

115-42, 181 dependency and, 112-13, 131, 153 disarmament and, 131-3 humanitarian motives for, 11, 119,

122-3, 127, 128-31, 134, 136-7, 141

like-minded countries and, 119, 128-31, 136-7, 151-2

OECD target for, 119, 130, 136, 181 pollution permits and, 164-5 tying of, 119, 125, 140 trends in, 120

Djibouti, 68 Dominican Republic, 120 drugs, 138-9

Dulles, John Foster, 37 Duffield, John, 42

East Germany, 4, 69, 110, 127, 134 East Timor, xi, 72, 132 Eastern Europe, 64, 99-114, 180-2 Egypt, 9, 121, 132, 153 Eisaku, Sato, 45 Eisenhower, President, 31, 47 El Salvador, 121 emission transfers, 164-5 empires, xi, 3, 12-13, 32, 38-40, 114 environmental regimes, 159-65 Estonia, 99 European Aeronautic, Defence and Space

Company, 61-2 European Army, 171-3 European Coal and Steel Community

(ECSC), 7, 116 European Community (EC) and/or

European Union (EU), 1, 74-76, 80-114,165-7

budget of, 6, 8, 80-114 burdensharing bargains in, xiii, 80-2,

114 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of,

8, 82-4, 86-7, 89, 90-1, 92, 94, 101-4, 106-7

Common Foreign and Security Policy of, 68, 74-6, 171-3

decision-making in, 8,17,32,83,85, 97,102,110-1,113,172

eastern enlargement of, 80, 99-114, 181 foundation of, 80, 82-3, 85, 86,

117-18, 174; see also Treaty of Rome

Luxembourg compromise in, 83, 85 net contributions to, 84, 101-4, 113 PHARE programme of, 101, 111 Single Market programme of, 89-90,

94, 96, 138, 172, 178 southern enlargement of, 94-7 structural spending of, 89-90, 101-5,

110,114 UK rebate and, 93-4 UN and, 151, 157-9 value-added tax (VAT) in, 8, 93, 104,

155 European Defence Community, 74, 85 European Development Fund, 85, 128

European Investment Bank, 91 European Monetary Union, 89, 90, 95-6,

172,174,176,178-9,181 European Payments Union, 116 European Regional Development Fund,

87, 91, 92, 94 European Social Fund, 87, 91, 94 expatriates, 118

Feldstein, Martin, 178-9 Finland, 76, 98, 110, l30, 137 flexible response, 35, 43 France, 3, 5, 32-7, 67-8, 82-5, 122-3

agriculture and, 82-84, 86, 87, 107 Algerian war and, 35, 38, 117 armed forces in Germany, 43, 54 arms exports by, 46 arms industry of, 46-7, 61-2, 67 colonies and dependencies of, 67-8,

76, 85, 88, 117-8, 122-3, 135 conflict in former Yugoslavia and, 67 defence policy of, 32-4, 43, 67-8, 85 development assistance and, 117,

122-3,135 end of conscription in, 53, 67 European Defence Community and, 85 European Union and, 81, 83-5, 86,107 Gulf War and, 56, 67-8 military spending in, 23, 67 national road to socialism and, 94 NATO and, 16-17,33,43 nuclear weapons of, xiii, 12, 33, 34-7,

55 Second World War and, xiii UN budget and, 151 UN Security Council and, xiii, 37, 68 US relations with, 32-3, 68, 76 Vietnam War and, 38, 39

free riding, xii, 2, 12, 20, 21, 23, 33, 34, 40, 118, 121, 124, 146, 167; see also public goods theory

Free Trade Agreements, 88, 138

Genscher, Hans-Dietrich, 70 Germany and/or West Germany, xii, 3,

27-30,39-45,69-71,81-2,85-90, 112-14, 127-8, 139

agriculture in, 82, 84, 86, 88 arms exports by, 45 arms industry of, 44-7, 62

Basic Law of, 29 conscription in, 53, 71 currency of, 17, 89

Index 225

defence policy of, 39-40, 40-41, 69-71, 76

deployment of forces in former Yugoslavia, 70, 75

development assistance from, 118, 127-8, 129, 133, 134

economic aid from, 112 economic performance of, 26, 47, 81,

88 European Union and, xiii, 8, 16,81-2,

85-90,95-6,102-4,112-14, 165-6, 174

French forces in, 43, 54 global warming and, 161 Gulf War and, 57, 70 military spending in, 22, 69, 88 Morgenthau Plan and, 28 Nazi regime in, 14, 177 NATO and, 41-3, 70, 81, 86 nuclear weapons and, 12, 19, 29, 37,

45, 55 political culture in, 15, 40 post-war occupation of, 14-15, 27-30,

44,81,115 rearmament of, 41-2 UK forces in, 26, 42-3, 45, 54 unification of, 49, 69-71 UN and, 28, 150-1 US forces in, 22, 26, 42-3, 45, 54, 69 US security guarantee and, 15, 28 see also East Germany

Ghali, Boutros Boutros, 158 Gilpin, Robert, 4 global warming, xi, 1, 10, 143, 159-65 global taxes, 154-7 globalisation, xi, 80, 170-1, 173-5 Goldstein, Avery, 12,36-7 Great Depression, 177-8 Greece, 3, 5, 23, 94-7, 99, 102, 105, 108,

112, 128, 163 Group of Seven, 19 Gulf War (1991), 38, 44, 53, 56-7, 61,

132,148

Haiti,138 Hallstein doctrine, 127 Healey, Denis, 26

226 Index

hegemonic stability theory, 4-5 Helms, jesse, 149 Herriott, Edouard, 85 Hill, Christopher, 28 Hogan, Michael, 118 Hungary, 76-7, 99-100

Iceland, 3, 5, 58 India, 7, 38, SS, 119, 121, 122, 125, 133,

136, 140, 153, 154, 164 Indonesia, 117, 121, 125, 132, 136, 153 Industrial Revolution, xi, 12 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), 160 International Atomic Energy Agency

(lAEA),144 International Criminal Court, 166, 176 International Development Agency

(lOA), 118 International Law of the Sea, 159 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 1,

15, 126, 140, 166 international organisations, 5-11, 13,

15-19 assessed contributions to, 7-8 decision-making rules of, 6, 17, 153,

166 location of headquarters of, 16-17,98,

126, 146 staffing of, 18, 125, 153

international public goods, xii, 1, 20, 142, 155, 160, 169, 182

taxation and, 2, 7, 8, 154-7 International Whaling Convention, 159 Iran, 62, 64 Iraq, 6, 13,56,62,63,64,68, 70, 76, 148,

182 Ireland, 87, 91, 92, 94-7, 99, 102, 108,

112, 128, 163 Israel, 9, 105, 121, 147 Italy, xii, 3, 5, 39-40, 71-3, 81, 90-1,

134-5 agriculture in, 82, 84, 90-1 arms industry of, 44-7, 62 Carabinieri, 71 defence policy of, 39-40, 71-3 development assistance from, 118,

128,134-5 economic performance of, 26 end of conscription in, 53, 71

European Union and, 81, 87-8, 90-1, 104

foreign policy of, 28 Gulf War and, 56-7 Mezzogiorno of, 91 military spending in, 23, 24, 71-3 NATO and, 32, 71-2, 81 nuclear weapons and, 37 post-war occupation of, 44, 81 UN and, 150 1948 election in, 27

japan, 3, 4, 27-30, 39-40, 44-7, 124-7, 150-1

arms exports by, 45 arms industry of, 44-7 constitution of, 29, 45, 73 defence policy of, 39-40, 73-4 development assistance and, 112, 118,

124-7, 133, 140-1, 182 economic performance of, 26, 47, 125,

127, 133, 140 global warming and, 161 Gulf War and, 57 IMF and, 8, 125 international organisations and, 18 military spending in, 24, 25, SI, 73 nuclear weapons and, 12, 19,29,37,55 political culture in, 14, IS, 18, 40 post-war occupation of, 14-15, 27-30,

39,44 Second World War and, 29, 39, 40 UN budget and, 8, 150-1, 158, 166 UN peacekeeping and, 73 UN Security Council and, 28, 150-1 UN staffing and, 18 US security guarantee and, 15, 18,

30-1,40,73,117,179 johnson, Alastair lain, 13 jospin, Lionel, 67

Kassebaum amendment, 148-9 Kennedy, President John F., 120 Kennedy, Paul, 25-6 Kenya, 122, 132 Keohane, Robert, 4 Kindleberger, Charles, 4 Kirkpatrick, jeane, 148 Kissinger, Henry, 12 Klein, Lawrence, 51

Kohl, Helmut, 90, 94, 127, 176 Korea, North, 63, 64, 73, 117, 131, 140,

179, 182 Korea, South, 117, 119, 125, 133, 145,

164 Korean War, 22, 31, 38, 117 Kosovo war, xi, 58-9, 64, 66-8, 71-2, 75,

77, 79, 102, 108, 142, 181-2 Kuwait, 56-7, 148 Kyoto Protocol, 161

Landmines convention, 152 Latin America, 120, 137, 165 Latvia, 77, 100, 111 Layne, Christopher, 12 League of Nations, xii, 7, 32, 146, 167 Liberal institutionalism, 1, 5-11, 42-3 Lithuania, 77, 100 Lome Conventions, 92 Lumsdaine, David, 129 Lundestad, Geir, 175, 180 Luxembourg, 3, 5, 8, 24, 98, 129

Maastricht Treaty, 67, 74, 90, 95, 97 Malaysia, 123, 133 Malta, 100, 107, 111 Manhattan Project, 35 Mansfield Amendments (1966-74), 23 Marshall Plan, 81-2, 88, 116-17, 118,

125, 131 Mayhew, Alan, 111 Meiji,126 Mexico, 88, 90,138,139,153,174 Middle East, 119, 132, 162, 178 military aid, 119, 121 military-industrial complex, 31, 44-7,

48, 62-3 Mitterand, Fran\ois, 94, 123 Molley, Prime Minister, 85 Montreal Treaty, 159 Mozambique, 3, 72,130,148 Moravcsik, Andrew, 13, 88, 173-4

Nassau agreement (1962), 36 Nelson, Mark, 178 Netherlands, 24, 39, 52-3, 87, 92, 96,

115, 117, 136-7, 151 New Zealand, 25,129,158,175 Nicaragua, 130 Nigeria, 153

Index 227

Nixon Doctrine (1971), 22 Non-Proliferation Treaty (1969), 30, 37,

48, 55 North American Free Trade Agreement

(NAFTA), 88, 138 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

(NATO), 1,2-5,9, 15,41-4,59-60 3 per cent spending target of, 10, 25 Allied Rapid Reaction Corps of, 66 defence spending in, 23-5, 49-54, 77-8 enlargement of, 76-8 European Union and, 74-5, 111 expanded role for, 59-60 High Level Group in, 22 Implementation Force (IFOR), 58-9,

67, 70-1, 148 integrated command of, 41, 81 Kosovo Force (KFOR), 58-9, 66-8, 70,

72; see also Kosovo Long Term Defence Programme of, 25 origins of burdens ha ring in, 21-2 south-eastern Europe and, 109, 181 Stabilisation Force (SFOR), 70, 72, 77

Northern Ireland, 97 Norwa~4,52, 57,91, 115, 129-30,

136-7 nuclear weapons, xiii, 12, 34-7, 43,

54-6 costs of, 34-7 dual-key system for, 37 proliferation of, 55, 140 see also China, France, Germany, japan,

Soviet Union, UK, US Nunn, Sam, 125-6 Nunn Troop Reduction Amendment

(1984),23 Nye, joseph, 4

OECD, xii, 1, 14, 77, 80, 115-16, 142, 165-6

Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of, 8, 9, 118-19, 130, 181

UN and members of, 143 Official Aid (OA), 131, 134, 136 offset agreements, 45 Olson, Mancur, 2-3, 118 Oneal, john, 3-5 Organisation for European Economic

Cooperation (OEEC), 118 Orwell, George, 13

228 Index

Overseas Development Assistance (ODA), 115, 118-19, 133-5, 181; see also development assistance

Pakistan, SS, 119, 121, 122, 125, 132, 136,140

Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO),147

Pal me, Olaf, 157 Panama, 138 Papua New Guinea, 117 Peace Corps, 120 peace dividend, 49-52, 64, 78-9, 131-2,

141, 169 Perle, Richard, 23 Philippines, 121, 132 Phoenix effect, 27 Poland, 4,76-7,99-101,105,108,111,

11~ 131, 13~ 13~ 145 Polaris, 36 pollution permits, 164 Portugal, 3-5, 24, 52, 94-7, 99, 102, 105,

108, 117, 128, 129, 163 Prodi, Romano, 104 public goods theory, xiii, 1, 2-5, 8, 9, 10,

12, 19-20, 21, 29, 30, 34-5, 38, 118, 143-4, 149, 161

purchasing power parity, 154

Quadrennial Defence Review (1996), 63

Reagan, President, 64, 147-8 realism, xiii, 1, 11-13, IS, 19,29,74, 166,

176-7 research and development spending,

46-7, 60-2 Riddell, Roger, 121 Rio Pact, 4 Romania, 77, 100, 106, 108-9 Russia, 79, 108, 134, 137, 145, 153, 161,

181, 182 Rwanda, 65, 68, 122, 135, 148

Samuelson, Paul, 25 sanctions, 6 Sao Tome and Principe, 152 Saudi Arabia, 57, 164 Schelling, Thomas, 7 Second World War, xi, xii, 1, 13, 14, IS,

16,20,32,80,113,177

defence spending in, 21 security community, 12, 28, 168-70 self-determination, 12-13, 20, 38,

114 Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, 73 Serbia, 102, 108, 112 Side-payments, 80, 87, 89, 91 Singapore, 145 Slessor, Sir John, 37 Slovakia, 77, 100, 111 Slovenia, 99, 107 small states, 2, 18-19, 97-9, 110-11,

128-9, 151-2 Solana, Javier, 74 Somalia, 65, 72, 144, 148, 181 South Africa, 130 Soviet Union, 4, 13, 14,21,25,29,34,40,

82, 131, 151, 168-9 end of, 49, 168-9 nuclear weapons of, 22, 31

Spain, 4, 24, 52, 62, 84, 94-7, 99, 102, 105, 111, 140, 163

Srebrenica, 58 Sri Lanka, 122 stability pact, 109 stealth aircraft, 62 strategic culture theory, xiii, 1, 13-15,29,

48, 121-2 Suez invasion (1956), 3, 33, 35, 39 Sweden, 62, 76,96,98, 110, 115, 129-30,

136-7 Switzerland, 119, 129

Taiwan, 117, 125, 132 Tanzania, 122, 130, 136 Thatcher, Margaret, 93, 123 Third World, 115, 152-4 Thomson-CSF, 62 Tobin, James, 155 trade, 20, 31,117,132,174,179 Treaty of Rome, 82, 85, 89, 90, 91 Trident, 36, 54 Truman Doctrine (1947), 30 Trump, Donald, 124 Turke~ 3, 5, 14,57, 109-10, 119, 121,

127, 145

Ukraine, 108, 145, 161 United Kingdom (UK), 3, 32-4, 42-7,

75-6, 91-4, 103-4, 122-3

United Kingdom (Contd.) armed forces in Germany of, 9, 26,

42-4, 65-6 arms exports by, 123 arms industry of, 44-7, 61-2 colonies and dependencies of, 117, 122 conflict in former Yugoslavia and,

66-7, 75-6 defence policy of, 32-4, 43, 65-7 defence reviews in, 23, 65 development assistance from, 117,

122-3, 129, 135-6 economic performance of, 25-6 EUbudgetand,8, 89, 91-4,103-4 European defence cooperation and,

75-6 European Union and, 32, 91-4 Falklands War and, 39, 65 fear of casualties in, 68 Gulf War and, 56, 66 Indian independence and, 38 military spending in, 22, 23, 51, 65 National Plan of, 26 nineteenth-century position of, 4, 63 nuclear weapons of, xiii, 12, 33, 35-7,

54-5 Palestine and, 38 post-war demobilisation in, 26 relief programmes to Germany of, 116 Second World War and, xiii, 33 special relationship with US of, 17,33,

61-2, 66, 68, 75, 91 UN budget and, 151 UN Security Council and, iii, 37, 68,151 withdrawal from East of Suez and,

38-40,43,65, 117 United Nations (UN), 1, 15, 144-59,

165-7 budget of, 6, 8, 143, 144-59, civilian powers and, 18, 150-1 Charter of, 18, 146, 149, 157 General Assembly of, 19, 143, 147,

152-3, 157, 166 Independent Working Group on the

Future of, 154 minimum membership fee for, 152 peacekeeping budget of, 144-5, 151 pension fund of, 157 Security Council of, 6, 16, 18, 19, 143,

145, 148, 150-1, 153, 166

Index 229

staffing of, 18, 153 voluntary contributions to, 144-5

UN Development Programme (UNDP), 118, 145

UN Environment Programme (UNEP), 144

UNESCO, 147, 151 UN Framework Convention on Climate

Change, 160 UNPROFOR, 57-9, 66-7, 70, 72 UNSCOM,57 United States (US), xii, 1, 3-5, 16, 19,

30-1 aid to Egypt and Israel from, 9, 121 aid to Europe from, 116 armed forces in Asia of, 10,31,38,176 armed forces in Europe of, 10,31,42-3,

63 arms exports by, 46 arms industry of, 44-7, 60-1 Congress of, 65, 125-6, 137, 147-9,

156, 157, 161, 166 decolonisation and, 38-9 defence policy of, 30-1, 62-5 development assistance and, 112, 116,

117-18,119,119-22,137-40 economic performance of, xii, 25-6,

30,51, 137, 175, 177-8 fear of casualties in, 64-5, 68 global warming and, 160-5 hegemony of, 30-1, 38-40, 62, 63-4,

149 isolationism in pre-war period of, 30,

178 Kosovo war and, 58-9 military aid and, 121 military-industrial complex of, 31 military spending in, xii, 21, 30, 50-1,

64, 178 multilateralism and, 138-40, 143, 156,

165-7, 169, 175-6 NAFfA and, 88 nuclear weapons and, 12,21,34-7,

54 OECD and, 118 political culture of, 14, 16, 138-9, 161,

176 poverty in, 121-2 secession of the South in, 179 Somalia and, 65

230 Index

United States (Contd.) UN budget and, 8, 143, 146-50, 156-9 Vietnam War and, 3, 38, 39, 64

V bombers, 36 Vietnam, 117, 119, 120, 130, 131 Visegrad, 107

WaIt, Stephen, 19 Warsaw Pact, 4 welfare states, 121-2, 129-30, 132, 136,

139 Western European Union (WEU), 21, 32,

74 Wilson, Harold, 123

World Bank, 6, 16, 118, 126, 132, 133, 140, 163, 166

World Food Programme (WFP), 145 World Health Organisation (WHO),

144 World Trade Organisation, 166, 174

Yaounde Conventions, 85, 92, 128 Yugoslavia, former, 6, 57-60

Contact Group on, 19 military operations in, 53, 57-60, 74-5,

77, 148

Zaire, 117, 122, 132, 133, 135 Zeckhauser, Richard, 2-3, 118