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Nova Scotia

Private Passenger Vehicles

Oliver Wyman Selected Loss Trend Rates

Based on Industry Data Through December 31, 2016

Selected Trend Rates - Summary The following table presents our selected past and future annual loss cost trend rates as of

December 31, 2016. We discuss and present our methodology and assumptions in selecting our

trend rates in this report.

Coverage Past

Loss CostFuture

Loss CostBodily Injury +3.0% +3.0% Property Damage & DCPD +3.0% +9.0%* AB – Disability Income +0.0% +0.0% AB – Medical/Rehab +5.0% +5.0% AB – Funeral -9.0% -9.0% AB – Death -5.0% -5.0% AB-Total +3.0 % +3.0% Collision -0.5% +4.5%* Comprehensive +7.0% +7.0% Specified Perils +7.0% +7.0% All Perils +3.5% +3.5% Underinsured Motorist +5.0% +5.0% Uninsured Auto +9.0% +9.0%

*Beginning April 1, 2013

Introduction Loss trend rates are factors that are used to determine rate level indications. They are applied to

the experience period incurred losses to adjust for the cost levels that are anticipated during the

policy period covered under the proposed rate program.

The application of trend rates is, essentially, a two-step process. The data in the experience

period under consideration must be adjusted to reflect changes in cost conditions that have taken

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place (i.e., “past trend”), and then the data must be further adjusted to reflect changes in cost

conditions that are expected to take place between the present time and the time during which the

new premiums will be in effect (i.e., “future trend”).

Therefore, past trend rates should reflect the underlying trend patterns that occurred during the

experience period, which we have assumed to be the three to five years ending December 31,

2016. Future trend rates should reflect those same patterns that occurred during the experience

period, as well as the likelihood that those patterns may change.

We select trend rates based on historical Industry Nova Scotia claim experience as published by

the General Insurance Statistical Agency (GISA). The Industry data is organized by half-year,

and in this report we refer to the first half of an accident half year as XXXX-1 or XXXX.1 and

the second half of the accident year as XXXX-2 or XXXX.2. So, for example, the accident half-

year spanning July 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 is referred to as 2016-2 or 2016.2.

We derive indicated annual loss trend rates based on an exponential regression model using

Industry historical accident year loss and loss adjustment expense data that we project to ultimate

cost level (when all claims are reported and settled) using the Industry loss development factors we

select.

Estimation of Industry Ultimate Loss and Claim Amounts The Industry Nova Scotia experience upon which the loss trend rates are based must be adjusted

to an ultimate claim count and loss amount level. We do so through the application of what are

referred to as development factors to the reported claim counts and claim amounts as of June 30,

2016. We select development factors based on a review of the Industry Nova Scotia loss

development patterns; we do this by coverage. Our selected development factors are generally

based on: (a) the volume weighted average of the last four observed development factors for the

half-years ending June (for development period 6 months to 12 months) if there is evidence of

seasonality1; and (b) the volume weighted average of the last six observed development factors

(for the development periods beyond 12 months). For the more minor coverages, such as

Specified Perils, Death Benefits and Funeral, we tend to select the volume weighted average of

the last twenty observed development factors through 66 months of development and the all-year

volume weighted average for development periods beyond 66 months. For Uninsured Auto and

1 Evidence of seasonality was found for Bodily Injury counts, and Comprehensive counts and amounts.

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Underinsured Motorist, we tend to select the all-year volume weighted average for all

development periods. The exceptions are as follows:

Bodily Injury Claim Count 6-12 average of last three

semester values

Bodily Injury Claim Amount 6-12 average of last three

semester values

Property Damage Claim Count 6-12 Weighted average of last

six values

Property Damage Claim Amount 6-12; 96-114,

144-150

Weighted average of last

six values; 1.00

Accident Benefits-

Medical

Claim Count 6-12 average of last three

semester values

Accident Benefits-

Medical

Claim Amount 6-12; 30-36;

126-132

Weighted average of last

six values; Weighted

average of last ten

semester values; 1.00

Accident Benefits-

Disability Income

Claim Count 6-12 Weighted average of last

six semester values

Accident Benefits-

Disability Income

Claim Amount 6-12; 132+ Average of last six


Uninsured Claim Count 96+ 1.00

Uninsured Claim Amount 96+ 1.00

Collision Claim Count 6-12 Average of last three

semester values

Collision Claim Amount 6-12; 48+ Average of last three


Specified Perils Claim Count 12+ 1.00

Specified Perils Claim Amount 18+ 1.00

All Perils Claim Count 6-12 Weighted average of last

six semester values

All Perils Claim Amount 6-12; 42-60 Weighted average of last

six semester values; 1.00

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As part of the analysis we examined the claim count and claim amount development triangles for

each of the top ten private passenger automobile insurer groups in Nova Scotia. During the

course of our review we identified one insurer with reported Bodily Injury claim counts and

claim amounts over recent accident half-years that appeared to be inconsistent with its reported

claim counts and claim amounts over prior accident half-years. We learned that the insurer

(which we will refer to as Insurer A), changed the way it recorded (and reported to GISA) its

Bodily Injury claims – essentially not reporting claims for which it was believed that no loss

(indemnity or ALAE) amounts would be paid. This change began during the first half of 2015.2

As respects Insurer A, without any adjustments to recognize its change in reporting, the claim

count and claim amount development factors that we select, and hence the ultimate claim counts

(frequency) and claim amounts (severity) that we select, would not be appropriate for the

accident half-years 2016-1and 2016-2 affected by the change.

Claim Counts

For accident years through 2015-2, we made no changes to the manner in which we selected

development factors and ultimate claim counts as described earlier.

For accident half-years 2016-1 and 2016-2, we adjusted the Industry claim count triangle to

remove Insurer A. For each semester, we then selected claim count development factors and

ultimate claim counts for this semester based on the Industry data excluding Insurer A, added

in the ultimate claim counts we selected for Insurer A3, combined the two estimates of

ultimate claim counts, and then backed into the claim count development factor for this

semester.

2 We also found an insurer that changed the way it recorded and reported Bodily Injury claims to GISA beginning in 2008. The effect was a reduction in reported claim frequency by approximately 75% and a significant increase in its reported claim severity. As this change in reporting has been consistent since 2008, and our selected trend rate (as discussed below in the trend section) is based on data after 2008, we made no adjustments for this insurer. 3 Insurer A’s actuaries were unable to provide an estimate of the number of claims that would have been

reported had no changes been made to claim reporting /recording practices. We, therefore, assumed Insurer A would have experienced the same change in claim frequency from 2015-2 to 2016-2 and from 2015-1 to 2016-1 as the rest of the Industry.

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Claim Amounts

For accident years through 2015-2, we made no changes to the manner in which we selected

development factors and ultimate claim amounts as described earlier.

For accident half-years 2016-1 and 2016-2, we adjusted the Industry claim amount triangle to

remove Insurer A. For each semester, we then selected claim amount development factors

and ultimate claim amounts for this semester based on the Industry data excluding Insurer A,

added in the ultimate claim amounts we selected for Insurer A4, combined the two estimates

of ultimate claim amounts, and then backed into the claim amount development factor for

this semester.

Exhibit 2, attached, presents our selected cumulative claim count and claim amount development

factors which includes the noted adjustments for Insurer A.

We note that as a result of these selected development factors and the actual experience that has

emerged, our estimated ultimate claim counts and ultimate claim amounts have changed from

our prior estimates, and these changes contribute to the changes in our selected trend rates.

Selection of Trend Rates

The identification of the underlying trend patterns over the experience period is challenging

because factors such as statistical fluctuation in the data points, changes in the underlying

exposure, or abnormal weather conditions, etc., can make the underlying trend patterns difficult

to discern. For this reason, we model the data several different ways in an attempt to identify the

underlying trends during the experience period - over time periods that are longer than the

experience period as a means of increasing the stability/reliability of the data being analyzed, but

at the same time being responsive to changes in patterns that may have occurred, and with and

without certain data points to improve our understand of the sensitivity of the calculated loss

trend rate to the inclusion or exclusion of those points.

4 Insurer A’s actuaries were unable to provide an estimate of the claim amounts that would have been

reported had no changes been made to claim reporting /recording practices. We, therefore, assumed Insurer A would have experienced the same change in claim severity from 2015-2 to 2016-2 and 2015-1 to 2016-1 as the rest of the Industry.

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Time Period Considered

We present the experience by accident half-year, spanning the period 2002-1 to 2016-2, but in

selecting past trend rates we give greater consideration to the experience over the more recent

years.

Seasonality

Some coverages exhibit what is referred to as “seasonality” – where claim costs (number of

claims or claim amounts) incurred during the first half of a year are generally higher/lower than

claim costs incurred during the second half of a year. In the coverage-by-coverage discussion

that follows, we state whether or not a seasonality parameter is applied. We note, however, that

we find that seasonality may be significant for some, but not all time periods; or significant for

loss cost, or severity, or frequency, but not for all three. Hence, for most coverages we present

the measured trends with and without applying seasonality.

Reforms

The purpose of a reform parameter is to isolate and, in a sense, remove the impact that reforms

had on the level of claim costs so that the underlying claim cost trend can be identified.

For Bodily Injury, we give special consideration to the 2008-1 to 2010-1 period where

challenges to the Minor Injury Regulations (MIR) may have had an impact on the claims

experience, which was then followed by the changes to the MIR in April 2010. In

particular:

o We give consideration to a possible change in reporting pattern that might have occurred

beginning January 2008 as a result of challenges to the Minor Injury Regulations - in

particular, the Decision by the Supreme Court of Nova Scotia to uphold the Minor Injury

Regulation released on December 15, 2009, and the Supreme Court of Canada’s Decision

on May 27, 2010 to refuse leave to appeal the Decision.

o We give consideration to Bill 52, an amendment to the Automobile Accident Minor

Injury Regulations of the Insurance Act, enacted on April 28, 2010.

We give consideration to the Fair Act Insurance Reforms enacted on April 1, 2012, which

introduced higher maximum benefit levels for Accident Benefits sub-coverages.

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Effective April 1, 2013, the DCPD coverage was introduced in Nova Scotia. We give

consideration to this change in our selected trend rates for both Property Damage (which

includes DCPD) and Collision.

Data Points

We give special consideration to data points that we consider to have a material impact on the

measured trends. Of note is that for certain coverages, most notably for DCPD and Collision,

there were large increases (spikes) in frequency in the 2015-1 accident period. We believe these

increases to be at least in part (perhaps mostly) attributed to the relatively high amount of snow

precipitation in the first quarter of 2015.

Consideration of Severity, Frequency, and Loss Cost Trend Patterns We consider the observed severity, frequency, and loss cost trend patterns. In so doing we

consider the results of statistical tests that we apply. As respects the Adjusted R-square, we

generally refer to values greater than 80% to be “high,” values between 40% and 80% to be

“moderate,” and values below 40% to be “low.” We consider p-values under 5% to be

“significant.” The confidence interval range presented represents a 95% probability level range.

Future Trend Rates In selecting future trend rates, if appropriate, we adjust our selected past trend rates after giving

consideration to the reforms changes that have occurred over the recent past if there is evidence

of new patterns emerging.

A discussion of our selected trend rates follows. The various trend patterns that we review and

associated statistical results are summarized in Exhibit 3 for each of frequency, severity, and loss

cost.

******************************************************************

Our Selected Trend Rates

Bodily Injury

Based on our analysis as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past and future loss cost trend rate of

+2.5% and a level change parameter (for the reform) of 1.23 at April 2010.

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We estimate that during 2016-2 compared to the prior corresponding accident half year (2015-2)

the frequency rate, the average severity, and the loss cost changed by approximately -7.3%,

-9.1%, and -15.7%, respectively. This large frequency decline is consistent with the assumption

that the high 2015-1 frequency rate is weather related. We estimate that the loss cost for the

accident year ending December 31, 2016 decreased by 4.2% over the loss cost for the

accident year ending December 31, 2015.5

The following graphs display our estimate of the actual loss cost (average claim cost per

vehicle), average severity (average claim cost per claim), and frequency rate (average claim

incidence rate) over the period 2002-1 through 2016-2.

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Claim Freq. Per Thousand

Ultimate

As depicted by the above graphs, subject to variability, severity sharply declined following the

2003 reforms, but remained relatively flat from 2005 through 2009-1, after which, severity has

been increasing. Frequency has exhibited a declining pattern over the last fifteen years,

including a sharp decline in 2008 and a lower rate of decline beginning 2009. Loss cost sharply

declined following the 2003 reforms through to accident year 2008, when it experienced an

approximate 21% decline from 2007 to 2008. The 2008 loss cost represents the low point over

the last ten years. Loss cost has exhibited an increasing trend since 2008.

An increase in the minor injury cap (from $2,500 to $7,500) took effect on April 28, 2010. In

our study prepared for the Nova Scotia Superintendent of Insurance, “Cost Implications of

5 These changes reflect the noted adjustments made for Insurer A.

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Changes to the Minor Injury Regulations,” dated May 12, 2010, we estimated that Bodily Injury

severity and loss cost would increase by approximately 17% as a result of the increase to the

minor injury cap. We had since revised our estimate to +23% based on the experience that has

emerged. Following a similar analysis as presented in our prior reports (and discussed more

fully in the reform section), we continue to estimate the impact of the increase in the minor

injury cap to be +23%. However, we note that the 2010-2 severity is lower than the 2009-2

severity, and so the reform impact is not evidenced in the 2010-2 severity.

We also note that indexing of the $7,500 minor injury cap is likely affecting the severity and loss

cost trends.

We further note that although we expected the April 1, 2012 increase in the Accident Benefits

sub coverage limits to reduce the Bodily Injury claim costs (all else being equal), at this stage

there is no clear evidence of this. As in our prior review, we do not adjust the data for this

expected decrease in the Bodily Injury claim costs. The effect on Bodily Injury as a result of the

changes to the Accident Benefits sub coverage limit changes is discussed in our report prepared

for the Board titled “2011 Automobile Insurance Review Options- Cost Impact,” dated July 8,

2011.

In prior reports we stated that the cause of the sharp frequency decline in 2008 is not clear.

Given the unexplained sharp decline, we continue to consider 2008 to be a low point and note

that it coincides with a change in the Bodily Injury loss cost trend pattern.

The measured severity, frequency, and loss cost trends, associated Adjusted R-square values, p-

values, and confidence intervals over various trend measurement periods ending 2016-2 and

2016-1 (in consideration of the relatively higher degree of uncertainty surrounding the estimated

loss cost for 2016-2), including a +23% adjustment to reflect our estimate of the impact of the

April 2010 reforms, with and without seasonality, and with and without the 2010-2 data point

which we find to be low6 for severity, are presented in Exhibit 37.

6 Although the minor injury reforms with a higher cap amount were introduced effective April 1, 2010, the

2010-2 severity estimate is less than the 2009-1 severity estimate. For this reason we consider the measured severity trend rates with and without this data point.

7 For additional information, we also present in Exhibit 3 the trend rates excluding the 2008-1 data point as it appears to be low and the 2015-1 data point as it appears to be high.

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We make the following observations about these measured trends.

The severity trends, beginning 2009-1 and onward and ending 2016-1 and 2016-2, with

seasonality (which we find to be significant), and including 2010-2, generally fall in the range of

approximately +5.0% to +6.5% with moderate Adjusted R-squares and significant p-values, with

trends ending 2016-1 higher than those ending 2016-2. When the 2010-2 data point is excluded,

the measured trends beginning 2009-1 through 2010-1 are modestly lower, with slightly higher

Adjusted R-squares and lower (more significant) p-values.

We continue to select a severity trend rate of +5.0%, based on the measured trends beginning

2009-1.

The measured frequency trends ending 2016-2, with seasonality (which we find to be

significant), generally fall in the range of -1.0% to -3.5% with moderate Adjusted R-squares and

generally significant p-values. The more recent of these measured trends (i.e., beginning 2010-1

through 2011-2) with significant p-values fall within the range of -1.8% to -2.5%. We select a

trend rate of -2.0%.

Based on the separate frequency and severity selections we select a past loss cost trend rate of

+3.0% (rounded); one half percentage point higher than our prior selection.

As we see no clear evidence of a recent change in trend pattern, we select a future loss cost trend

of +3.0%.

Property Damage (and DCPD)

DCPD was introduced on April 1, 2013. The data we analyze includes both Property

Damage and DCPD experience.

Based on our analysis as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past loss cost trend of +3.0% through to

April 1, 2013 and a loss cost trend rate of +7.0% for the period beginning April 1, 2013; with no

reform parameter.


the frequency rate, the average severity, and the loss cost changed by approximately +7.6%,

+1.5%, and +9.2%, respectively. We estimate that the loss cost for the accident year ending

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December 31, 2016 decreased by 0.8% over the loss cost for the accident year ending

December 31, 2015.




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The historical data points (as depicted in the above graphs) show that, subject to variability: (a)

following a period of relative flatness (2003 to 2010-1) severity has exhibited an upward trend,

(b) following a period of a relatively flat trend between 2007 and the first half of 2013, frequency

increased in the second half of 2013, and has since been rising, including a sharp spike in the

first half of 2015, which may be related to the noted weather conditions, and (c) loss cost has

exhibited an upward trend, including a relatively large increase in the second half of 2013 and a

spike in the first half of 2015 that may be weather related. We assume that the introduction of

DCPD in April 2013 caused a shift in claims from Collision to DCPD and this explains the

increase in frequency and loss cost in 2013.


values, and confidence intervals over various trend measurement periods beginning with and

without seasonality, and with and without the 2015-1 data point are presented in Exhibit 3.

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As in our prior review, we measure the trend rates before and after DCPD was introduced

(without a reform parameter) as there appears to be a change in the loss cost trend rate

following the introduction of DCPD.

For the period before DCPD was introduced we consider the loss cost trends as they have higher

Adjusted R-square values than the separate severity and frequency trends. The measured loss

cost trends, beginning 2002-1 through to 2006-1 ending 2012-2, with seasonality, which we find

to be significant, cluster around +3%, with high Adjusted R-squares and significant p-values for

time. We select a loss cost trend through of +3.0%, the same as our prior selection, to apply to

the Property Damage loss experience both before and after the introduction of DCPD.

We consider the trend rates after DCPD was introduced based on combined8 Property Damage

and DCPD experience.

While the post reform data is limited (particularly with the exclusion of the 2015-1 data point),

we see statistical evidence (high Adjusted R-squares and significant p-values) of an increase in

the trend pattern for loss cost after the introduction of DCPD as measured over the more recent

trend periods from 2013-2 through to 2016-2. The measured loss cost trend over the period

2013-2 to 2016-2, excluding 2015-1, without seasonality, is + 9.1% with a high Adjusted R-

square and significant p-value for time. We select a loss cost trend rate of +9.0% for the period

beginning April 1, 2013; an increase of two percentage points from our prior selection.

We select a past loss cost trend of +3.0% through to April 1, 2013 and a loss cost trend rate of

+9.0% for the period beginning April 1, 2013; with no reform parameter.

Accident Benefits – Disability Income

Based on our analysis as of June 30, 2016 we selected a past and future loss cost trend rate of

+0.0% with a level change parameter (for the reform) at April 2012 of 1.43.


the frequency rate, the average severity, and the loss cost changed by approximately -1.0%,

8 DCPD loss cost is approximately 95% of the total Property Damage and DCPD loss cost.

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-21.9%, and -22.7%, respectively. We estimate that the loss cost for the accident year ending


December 31, 2015.




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The historical data points indicate a considerable amount of variability, particularly for severity

and loss cost (due to severity). Severity has generally exhibited an increasing pattern, including a

decline over the 2007 to 2009 period, a sharp increase in 2010 (+90% from 2009-1 to 2010-1),

and a sharp increase in the second half of 2012 (immediately following the reform). Frequency

has exhibited a downward trend that leveled off somewhat (a less steep decline) beginning in

2010. Loss cost, following a steep decline in 2008 and 2009, has generally been increasing

since; and, like severity, has experienced sharp increases in 2010 and the second half of 2012.

Effective April 1, 2012, the Disability Income weekly benefit was increased from $140 to $250,

and for unpaid housekeepers from $70 to $100. Our estimates of the reform parameter are wide

ranging with generally weak p-values over most the time periods beginning 2002-1, which we

believe is a reflection of the high degree of variability in the Disability Income severities. Given

this, we continue to select the reform parameter of 1.43 that we calculated and presented to the

Board in our July 2011 report, as we selected in our prior review.

14


values, and confidence intervals over various trend measurement periods, with and without

seasonality, with pre-April 2012 severities increased by 43% are presented in Exhibit 3.

The measured severity trends beginning 2002-1 through 2009-2 ending 2016-2 without

seasonality (which is not significant) generally range from approximately +5% to +7%, with

moderate to low Adjusted R-squares, but significant p-values. Given the volatility in severity

(and wide confidence intervals) since the April 2010 reforms were introduced, we continue to

select the severity trend based on measured trends over the longer term periods. We select a

severity trend rate of +5.5%; the same as our prior selection.

The measured frequency trends with seasonality (which is significant) generally range from

approximately -3% to -5.5%, with generally moderate to high Adjusted R-squares and significant

p-values. The trend rates over the longer term periods (ten to fifteen years) cluster around -5.5%

with high Adjusted R-squares. Like for severity, we select a frequency trend based on measured

trends over the longer time periods. We select a frequency trend of -5.5%.

We also note that all of the measured loss cost trends have low (near zero) Adjusted R-squares

and p-values that are not significant for time.

As a result, based on our selected severity trend rate of +5.5% (and level change parameter of

1.43 at April 2012) and selected frequency trend of -5.5%, we continue to select a past loss cost

trend rate of +0.0% (rounded), with a level change parameter at April 2012 of 1.43, the same as

our prior review.

As we see no clear statistical evidence of a recent change in trend pattern, we select a future loss

cost trend of +0.0%.

Accident Benefits – Medical/Rehab

Based on data as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past and future loss cost trend rate of +3.0%

with level change parameters (for reforms) at April 2010 of 1.25 and April 2012 of 1.15.



15

-12.6%, and -6.3%, respectively. We estimate that the loss cost for the accident year ending

December 31, 2016 increased by 10.6% over the loss cost for the accident year ending

December 31, 2015.




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The historical data points indicate a considerable amount of variability, particularly for severity

and loss cost (due to severity). Severity has generally exhibited an upward trend, but with

relatively sharp increases in 2010 and in 2012 and, following declines in 2013 and 2014,

increases in 2015 (modest) and 2016 (larger). Frequency has trended upward since 2009. Loss

cost has generally been increasing since 2008; and, like severity, experienced relatively sharp

increases in 2010 and 2012, and following declines in 2013 and 2014, increases in 2015 and

2016.



seasonality, and with level changes for the reforms are presented in Exhibit 3.

We attribute the severity and loss cost increases in 2010 to the April 2010 reforms. We select a

level change parameter of 1.24 at April 2010 based on the time period 2008-1 to 2016-2 which

has the highest Adjusted R-square.

16

Due to the volatility of the claim experience and the short time gap between the April 2010 and

April 2012 reforms, the degree to which the April 2012 reforms contributed to severity and loss

cost increases in 2012 is not clear. However, we continue to assume that the April 2012 reforms

led to a 15% increase in claim costs9 and note that the majority of the experience that will be

considered in upcoming rate applications will be after the April 2012 reforms.

The severity trends, with seasonality, and with losses prior to April 2012 and losses prior to April

2010 adjusted upward by 15% and 43% (1.43 = 1.24*1.15), respectively, to reflect the two

reforms, are close to 0%, with low Adjusted R-squares and p-values that are not significant for

time. We select a severity trend of +0%.

The frequency trends beginning 2009-1 through 2013-1 ending 2016-2 range from

approximately +3.5% to +5.5%. The more recent measured frequency trends are at the higher

end of this range, with moderate Adjusted R-squares and p-values that are significant for time.

We select a frequency trend of +5%.

We, therefore, select a loss cost trend of +5.0%, with an April 2010 reform adjustments of +24%

and an April 2012 reform adjustment of +15%. The selected trend is two percentage points

higher than our prior selection.

Accident Benefits – Funeral

Based on data as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past and future loss cost trend rate of -5.0%

with a level change (for reform) parameter at April 2012 of 2.50.





December 31, 2015.

Effective April 1, 2012, the Funeral maximum benefit was increased from $1,000 to $2,500.

9This is the same adjustment for the April 2012 reforms as in our prior review, based on our study for the

Board in our report prepared July 2011.

17




0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Lo

ss

Co

st

Period

Loss Cost

Ultimate

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im S

eve

rity

Claim Severity

Ultimate

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

20

02.1

20

04.1

20

06.1

20

08.1

20

10.1

20

12.1

20

14.1

20

16.1

Cla

im F

req

ue

ncy

Per

Th

ou

san

d


Ultimate

The historical data points indicate a considerable amount of variability. Severity has generally

exhibited an upward trend since 2005 with a sharp increase coincident with the reform.

Frequency has generally trended downward.

The measured loss cost trends, associated Adjusted R-square values, p-values, and confidence

intervals over various trend measurement periods, with and without seasonality, and with a factor

of 2.510 for the April 2012 reform applied to the data are presented in Exhibit 3.

The measured loss cost trends without seasonality (which is not significant) beginning 2002-1

through 2007-1 ending 2016-2, with a 2012-1 level change factor of 2.50 that have low to

moderate Adjusted R-squares and significant p-values for time, are in the approximate range of -

9% to -13%. Given the low claim volume, we select the measured loss cost trend over the time

period 2002-1 to 2016-2 at -9%.

10 As presented in Exhibit 3, the measured reform factors with significant p-values are in the range of the

2.5 factor we apply to the data.

18

We select a past and future loss cost trend of -9.0%, a decrease from our prior selection of -5%.

Accident Benefits – Death

Based on data as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past and future loss cost trend rate of -0.0%

with a level change (for reform) parameter at April 2012 of 2.50.





December 31, 2015.

Effective April 1, 2012, the Death maximum benefit was increased from $10,000 to $25,000 for

spouses and head-of-household, and from $2,000 to $5,000 for dependents.




0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

20

02.1

20

04.1

20

06.1

20

08.1

20

10.1

20

12.1

20

14.1

20

16.1

Lo

ss C

os

t

Period

Loss Cost

Ultimate

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im S

ev

erit

y

Claim Severity

Ultimate

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im F

req

uen

cy

Per

Th

ou

san

d


Ultimate

The historical data points indicate a considerable amount of variability. Severity has generally

exhibited an upward trend with a sharp increase coincident with the reform. Frequency has

generally trended downward.

19

Due to the volume and variability of the claim experience, we consider only the observed loss

cost trends.


intervals over various trend measurement periods, with no seasonality, and with a factor of 2.511

for the April 2012 reform applied to the data are presented in Exhibit 3.

The measured loss cost trends beginning 2002-1 through to 2007-1 ending 2016-2 without

seasonality (which is generally not significant) have low to moderate Adjusted R-squares and

range from -5.5% to -12%; with the larger negative trends coming from the more recent time

periods. Given the low claim volume, we select the measured loss cost trend over the time period

2002-1 to 2016-2 at -5.5%.

We select a past and future loss cost trend of -5.5%; a decrease from our prior selection of 0.0%.

Accident Benefits –Total

Based on our review of the trends for the Accident Benefits subcoverages described above, we

select an approximate past and future loss cost trend of +3.0%(rounded) for this coverage.

Collision

Based on data as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past loss cost trend rate of +0.0% through to

April 1, 2013, and a loss cost trend rate of +2.5% for the period beginning April 1, 2013.





December 31, 2015.

As we noted earlier, DCPD was introduced April 1, 2013 and as we discuss more fully

below, the introduction of DCPD appears to have affected the Collision claim experience.

11 As presented in Exhibit 3, as the measured reform factors are wide ranging, we continue to apply a

factor of 2.5 for the April 2012 reforms.

20




0

50

100

150

200

250

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Lo

ss

Co

st

Period

Loss Cost

Ultimate

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im S

eve

rity

Claim Severity

Ultimate

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

20

02.1

20

04.1

20

06.1

20

08.1

20

10.1

20

12.1

20

14.1

20

16.1

Cla

im F

req

ue

ncy

Per

Th

ou

san

d


Ultimate

As noted in our prior report, the sharp increase in the 2015-1 frequency is likely attributed to

a high snowfall level, and as a result, the decline in the 2016-1 frequency is attributed to a

return to more average snowfall levels.

The historical data points show that, subject to variability, severity has generally exhibited an

upward trend including double digit increases in 2013-1, 2013-2, 2014-1 and 2016-1 (over the

same half of the prior year). Frequency has generally declined since the 2007-2009 period, save

for a 42% increase in the first half of 2015, which we assume is attributed to the noted weather

conditions. Loss cost exhibited a period of relatively flat trend beginning around 2008, but an

upward trend over the more recent time periods, including a spike in 2015-1.

As in our prior review, we measure the trend rates before and after DCPD was introduced

(without a reform parameter) as we see evidence of a change in the trend pattern with the

introduction of DCPD.



seasonality, and with and without the 2015-1 data point are presented in Exhibit 3.

21

The measured trends beginning 2002-1 through 2009-2 ending 2012-2, before DCPD was

introduced, with significant p-values for the time and moderate Adjusted R-squares, cluster close

to +2.5%.

The measured frequency trends beginning 2007-1 (where we find there to be a change in pattern)

through 2009-2 ending 2012-2, before DCPD was introduced, with significant p-values for the

time and moderate Adjusted R-squares generally range from -2.5% to -3.5%.

We select a loss cost trend rate of -0.5% (severity: +2.5%; frequency -3.0%) through to April 1,

2013, before DCPD was introduced.

As the data after DCPD was introduced is limited (particularly with the exclusion of the 2015-1

data point), with poor fits for frequency, we consider the loss cost trends. We see statistical

evidence (moderate Adjusted R-squares and significant p-values) of an increase in the trend

pattern for the loss cost as measured over the more recent trend periods since DCPD was

introduced. The measured loss cost trend from 2013-2 to 2016-2, without 2015-1, with a

significant p-value for the time, is approximately +4.5%. We select a loss cost trend of +4.5% for

the time period after DCPD was introduced.

We, therefore, select a past loss cost trend of -0.5% through to April 1, 2013 and a loss cost

trend rate of +4.5% for the period beginning April 1, 2013; a one-half point lower trend through

April 1, 2013 and a two point higher trend beginning April 1, 2013 than our prior selections.

Comprehensive

Based on data as of June 30, 2016, we selected a past and future loss cost trend rate of +6.0%.





December 31, 2015.




22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

02.1

20

04.1

20

06.1

20

08.1

20

10.1

20

12.1

20

14.1

20

16.1

Lo

ss C

os

t

Period

Loss Cost

Ultimate

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im S

ev

erit

y

Claim Severity

Ultimate

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im F

req

uen

cy

Per

Th

ou

san

d


Ultimate

The historical data points (as depicted in the above graphs) show that severity has generally

exhibited an upward trend, although somewhat of a flat trend between 2003 and 2010, and,

following about rather sharp decline in 2011, a higher trend thereafter. Frequency has been more

variable, but generally increasing since 2005; like Property Damage and Collision, the

Comprehensive frequency rose in the first half of 2015 (by 17%). Subject to variability, the loss

cost has exhibited an upward trend since 2004.



seasonality, with and without the 2015-1 data point, are presented in Exhibit 3.

The measured severity trends with seasonality (which is significant) data point over the periods

beginning 2011-1 through 2013-1 ending 2016-2 cluster close to +7.0% with strong regression

statistics. We select a severity trend of +7.0%.

Although, as noted above frequency has exhibited a positive trend since 2005, it has done so with

considerable variability. Over the same trend period upon which our selected severity trend is

based, without seasonality (which is not significant), the measured frequency trends regression

statistics are weak. We, therefore, select a frequency trend of +0.0%.

As a result, we select a past loss cost trend of +7.0%; a one percentage point increase over

our prior selection.

23

As we see no clear statistical evidence of a recent change in trend pattern, we select a future loss

cost trend of +7.0%.

Specified Perils

For reasons of data volume and the nature of the coverage, we select the same past and future

loss cost trend rate as we do for Comprehensive, +7.0% for the past and the future.

All Perils






December 31, 2015.




0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Lo

ss

Co

st

Period

Loss Cost

Ultimate

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im S

eve

rity

Claim Severity

Ultimate

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

02.1

20

04.1

20

06.1

20

08.1

20

10.1

20

12.1

20

14.1

20

16.1

Cla

im F

req

ue

ncy

Per

Th

ou

san

d


Ultimate

24

The historical data points (as depicted in the above graphs) show considerable variability, with

severity generally increasing – more sharply following a decline in the 2009-2011 period - and

frequency exhibiting a flatter trend pattern – but declining beginning in 2011; like Property

Damage & DCPD, Collision, and Comprehensive, frequency rose in the first half of 2015 (by

22%).



seasonality, and with and without the 2015-1 data point, are presented in Exhibit 3.

The measured severity trends without seasonality (which is not significant), increase rather

significantly beginning in 2011 with high Adjusted R-square values and significant p-values.

We select a severity trend of +7.5% based on the measured trends beginning 2011-1 through

2013-1 ending 2016-2 with the high Adjusted R-squares that range from approximately +7% to

+8%.

The measured frequency trends without seasonality (which is not significant), without the 2015-1

data point (for which the regression statistics are stronger) more sharply decline with trend

periods beginning 2010-2 through 2011-2, ending 2016-2 with moderate Adjusted R-square

values and significant p-values. We select a frequency trend of -4.0% based on the measured

trends beginning 2011-1 and 2011-2.

As a result, we select a past loss cost trend of +3.5% (rounded); a 3.0 percentage point

increase over our prior selection.

As we see no clear evidence of a recent change in trend pattern, we select a future loss cost trend

of +3.5%.

Underinsured Motorist

For reasons of data volume and the nature of the coverage, we select as the past loss cost trend

rate, the severity trend rate of +5% that approximately underlies our selected Bodily Injury

severity trend rate.

25

Uninsured Auto



the frequency rate, the average severity, and the loss cost changed by approximately -5.9%, -

9.2%, and -14.5%, respectively. We estimate that the loss cost for the accident year ending


December 31, 2015. While these increases and decreases could be viewed as an indication of

the inherent variability in the Uninsured Auto claim experience (due to the low claim volume), it

must also be noted that the degree of uncertainty surrounding the recent accident half year

estimates is quite high.




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20

02.1

20

04.1

20

06.1

20

08.1

20

10.1

20

12.1

20

14.1

20

16.1

Lo

ss C

os

t

Period

Loss Cost

Ultimate

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im S

ev

erit

y

Claim Severity

Ultimate

-

0

0

0

0

1

1

200

2.1

200

4.1

200

6.1

200

8.1

201

0.1

201

2.1

201

4.1

201

6.1

Cla

im F

req

uen

cy

Per

Th

ou

san

dClaim Freq. Per Thousand

Ultimate

The historical data points show considerable variability, with severity generally increasing –

particularly beginning in 2005 – and frequency generally declining through 2009 and increasing

thereafter. Correspondingly, loss cost has been generally increasing since 2009; with a very

large spike in 2013-2.

Due to the volume and variability of the claim experience, we consider only the observed loss

cost trends.

26


intervals over various trend measurement periods, with seasonality for loss cost, with and

without the very high 2013-2 data point are presented in Exhibit 3.

We find seasonality to be generally significant for loss cost.

We select a past and future loss cost trend rate of +9.0% based on the measured trends beginning

2006 to 2007 ending 2016-2, excluding the 2013-2 data point, due to the combination of the

higher Adjusted R-squares and narrower confidence interval than shorter more recent time

frames.

27

Selected Trend Rates - Summary

The following table presents our selected past and future annual loss cost trend rates as of

December 2016.

Coverage

Past Loss Cost

Future Loss Cost

Bodily Injury +3.0% +3.0% Property Damage & DCPD +3.0% +9.0%* AB – Disability Income +0.0% +0.0% AB – Medical/Rehab +5.0% +5.0% AB – Funeral -9.0% -9.0% AB – Death -5.0% -5.0% AB-Total +3.0 % +3.0% Collision -0.5% +4.5%* Comprehensive +7.0% +7.0% Specified Perils +7.0% +7.0% All Perils +3.5% +3.5% Underinsured Motorist +5.0% +5.0% Uninsured Auto +9.0% +9.0%

*As of April 1, 2013

For comparison purposes, the following table presents our prior selected past and future annual

loss cost trend rates as of June 2016 presented in our prior report.

Coverage

Past Loss Cost

Future Loss Cost

Bodily Injury +2.5% +2.5% Property Damage & DCPD +3.0% +7.0%* AB – Disability Income +0.0% +0.0% AB – Medical/Rehab +3.0% +3.0% AB – Funeral -5.0% -5.0% AB – Death +0.0% +0.0% AB-Total +2.0% +2.0% Collision +0.0% +2.5%* Comprehensive +6.0% +6.0% Specified Perils +6.0% +6.0% All Perils +0.5% +0.5% Underinsured Motorist +5.0% +5.0% Uninsured Auto +8.0% +8.0%

*As of April 1, 2013

28

Reforms In accordance with Bill 52, Bodily Injury claims that occur on or after April 28, 2010 are subject

to a minor injury cap of $7,500. Bill 52 changed both the amount of the cap and the definition of

a minor injury. Following a Hearing on the matter, the Board accepted an initial reform

adjustment factor of 1.17 for Bodily Injury, and ordered that the data be monitored as it emerges

so as to measure the change, if any, in the loss trend rate and the actual change in loss costs due

to Bill 52.

We have reviewed the Industry Bodily Injury experience that has emerged since the Bill 52

reforms were introduced to determine if the initial reform factor of 1.17 should be amended.

The Bodily Injury frequency experience over the last fifteen years is presented in the graph

below. As depicted in the graph, we do not observe there to have been a change in the frequency

level as a result of the introduction of Bill 52 in the first half of 2010. The frequency rate shows

a pattern of decline, with a steep decline in 2008. And although the frequency trend rate has been

somewhat flatter (smaller negative trend rate) since 2009, just before the reforms were

introduced, it is not clear that this smaller negative trend rate is a result of the reforms or a

leveling off of the decline in frequency that has been observed in other provinces.

29

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

920

01.2

2003

.2

2005

.2

2007

.2

2009

.2

2011

.2

2013

.2

2015

.2

Cla

im F

req

uen

cy P

er T

ho

usa

nd


Ultimate

The Bodily Injury severity experience over the last fifteen years is presented in the graph below.

As depicted in the graph, we observe there to have been an increase in the severity level as a

result of the introduction of Bill 52 in the first half of 2010. So as to avoid any distortion from

the Bill 1 (2003-2) reforms, we calculate a reform factor for this change in the severity level

based on the experience period beginning 2004-1. Including a parameter for seasonality, which

we find to be significant, we select a parameter of 1.23 based on the time period 2005-1 to 2016-

2 excluding the 2010-2 data point and including seasonality, with the highest Adjusted R-square

(92%), the same as our prior selection.

30

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001

.2

2003

.2

2005

.2

2007

.2

2009

.2

2011

.2

2013

.2

2015

.2

Cla

im S

ever

ity

Claim Severity

Ultimate

As noted earlier, the $7,500 minor injury cap is indexed. The cap increased to $7,596 on January

1, 2012; to $8,100 on January 1, 2013; to $8,213 on January 1, 2014 $8,352 on January 1, 2015,

$8,385 on January 1, 2016 and $8,486 on January 1, 2017.

In the case of Medical-Rehabilitation, based on our review of the experience to date, and

integration of reform parameters within our loss trend models, we continue to find that there to

have been an increase in Medical-Rehab severity following the April 2010 Bodily Injury

reforms. We select a level change parameter of 1.24 at April 2010 based on the time period

2008-1 to 2016-2 which has the highest Adjusted R-square at 87% and significant p-values.

(The associated loss cost trend that we select is +5.5%.) Our selected April 2010 reform factor

of 1.24 is slightly lower than our prior selection of 1.25.

31

In addition to the possible impact of Bill 52 on the Med-Rehab costs, the Fair Insurance Reforms

introduce higher Accident Benefit limits effective April 1, 2012 as presented in the following

table:

Benefit Category Previous Benefit New Benefit (as of April 1, 2012)

Medical and Rehabilitation Expenses $25,000 $50,000

Funeral Expenses $1,000 $2,500

Death Benefits Head of Household $10,000 $25,000

Spouse of Head of Household $10,000 $25,000

Dependent $2,000 $5,000

Loss of Income $140/week $250/week

Principal Unpaid Housekeeper $70/week $100/week

However, we do not find the data to show any statistically significant measures for the change in

benefit level for the April 2012 reforms at this time for Medical-Rehabilitation. This may be due

to the inherent volatility of the data or because these two changes (April 2010 and April 2012)

are so close together. Our April 2012 reform estimate remains at 1.15 as per our original

estimate prepared in July 2011 for the Board.

In the case of Disability Income, as presented in Exhibit 3, while we measure a significant

severity level change factor of 1.52 (over the latest fifteen year period and excluding the 2010-1

data point) for the April 2012 reforms, as the level change value varies depending upon the time

frame considered, we choose to continue to select our original April 2012 reform factor of 1.43

and apply this directly to the data.

In Exhibit 3 we present the reform factors that we calculate over various time periods for Funeral

and Death Benefits. Given the limited data, and the range of factors that we calculated, our

selected reform factors for Funeral and Death Benefits remain unchanged at 2.5 and 2.5,

respectively, at this time.

32

In our report prepared for the Board dated July 2011, we estimated an approximate Accident

Benefits loss cost reform factor of 1.30 and this increase to the Accident Benefits loss cost of

approximately $11 would be partially offset by a reduction to the Bodily Injury loss cost of $7,

for an overall increase of approximately $4. As these changes were only introduced midway

through the first half of 2012, the actual cost impact of these reform remains uncertain. Our

reform impact estimates for these benefit level reforms remains unchanged.

As discussed in this report, there appears to have been a change in Collision beginning in 2013-1

due to the introduction of the DCPD coverage in April 2013. We find there to be an increase in

the trend rate for both these coverages coincident with the introduction of DCPD.

Exhibits In the Exhibit 1 we present the historical loss cost, severity and frequency data points by accident

half year over the fifteen year period 2002-1 to 2016-2, as well as the data points for each

coverage.

In Exhibit 2 we present our selected cumulative claim count and claim amount development

factors.

In Exhibit 3 we present the summary of the loss trend rates we have calculated over various time

periods along with the associated regression statistics.

Paula Elliott, FCAS, FCIA Theodore J. Zubulake, FCAS, FCIA

33

120 Bremner Boulevard, Suite 800 Toronto, Ontario M5J 0A8 1 416 868 2200

Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Automobile (excl. Farmers)

Third Party Liability - Bodily Injury

Accident Period Time

Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment

Ultimate Losses & LAE

Ultimate Loss Cost

% Change Seasonal Accident

Half YearsUltimate Severity

% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000


Half YearsAnnual Loss Cost & LAE

% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 227,605 1,560 55,386 1.077 59,650 262.08 38,237 6.85x 2002.2 2 233,675 1,669 65,948 1.077 71,026 303.95 42,556 7.14 283.29x 2003.1 3 225,987 1,475 49,667 1.078 53,541 236.92 -9.6% 36,299 -5.1% 6.53 -4.8%x 2003.2 4 231,167 1,292 45,156 1.078 48,678 210.58 -30.7% 37,677 -11.5% 5.59 -21.7% 223.60 -21.1%x 2004.1 5 228,995 1,203 31,013 1.140 35,355 154.39 -34.8% 29,389 -19.0% 5.25 -19.5%x 2004.2 6 237,710 1,442 37,995 1.140 43,314 182.21 -13.5% 30,038 -20.3% 6.07 8.5% 168.56 -24.6%x 2005.1 7 233,246 1,292 30,919 1.097 33,906 145.36 -5.8% 26,249 -10.7% 5.54 5.4%x 2005.2 8 242,670 1,330 35,767 1.097 39,223 161.63 -11.3% 29,490 -1.8% 5.48 -9.7% 153.66 -8.8%x 2006.1 9 238,343 1,124 27,531 1.099 30,243 126.89 -12.7% 26,906 2.5% 4.72 -14.8%x 2006.2 10 247,025 1,366 35,577 1.099 39,082 158.21 -2.1% 28,614 -3.0% 5.53 0.9% 142.83 -7.0%x 2007.1 11 242,643 1,133 28,698 1.105 31,708 130.68 3.0% 27,989 4.0% 4.67 -1.0%x 2007.2 12 251,028 1,242 33,771 1.105 37,313 148.64 -6.0% 30,046 5.0% 4.95 -10.5% 139.81 -2.1%x 2008.1 13 248,355 896 22,333 1.095 24,444 98.42 -24.7% 27,288 -2.5% 3.61 -22.7%x 2008.2 14 256,856 1,081 27,619 1.095 30,229 117.69 -20.8% 27,971 -6.9% 4.21 -14.9% 108.22 -22.6%x 2009.1 15 252,193 1,021 25,259 1.106 27,924 110.72 12.5% 27,357 0.3% 4.05 12.2%x 2009.2 16 261,934 1,176 38,149 1.106 42,173 161.01 36.8% 35,871 28.2% 4.49 6.7% 136.34 26.0%x 2010.1 17 258,209 1,054 29,984 1.108 33,211 128.62 16.2% 31,518 15.2% 4.08 0.8%x 2010.2 18 270,157 1,223 38,489 1.108 42,632 157.81 -2.0% 34,857 -2.8% 4.53 0.9% 143.54 5.3%x 2011.1 19 265,301 1,042 36,018 1.105 39,807 150.04 16.7% 38,188 21.2% 3.93 -3.7%x 2011.2 20 273,240 1,259 50,323 1.105 55,617 203.55 29.0% 44,169 26.7% 4.61 1.8% 177.19 23.4%x 2012.1 21 268,783 1,106 40,248 1.090 43,882 163.26 8.8% 39,682 3.9% 4.11 4.7%x 2012.2 22 277,926 1,209 49,860 1.090 54,363 195.60 -3.9% 44,951 1.8% 4.35 -5.6% 179.70 1.4%x 2013.1 23 271,964 1,100 36,723 1.093 40,156 147.65 -9.6% 36,504 -8.0% 4.04 -1.7%x 2013.2 24 280,961 1,261 56,615 1.093 61,907 220.34 12.6% 49,107 9.2% 4.49 3.1% 184.59 2.7%x 2014.1 25 274,004 1,005 42,815 1.086 46,502 169.71 14.9% 46,292 26.8% 3.67 -9.4%x 2014.2 26 284,022 1,134 51,499 1.086 55,933 196.93 -10.6% 49,323 0.4% 3.99 -11.0% 183.57 -0.6%x 2015.1 27 278,187 1,151 41,891 1.076 45,067 162.00 -4.5% 39,156 -15.4% 4.14 12.9%x 2015.2 28 287,974 1,226 66,092 1.076 71,101 246.90 25.4% 58,003 17.6% 4.26 6.6% 205.19 11.8%x 2016.1 29 283,524 1,034 47,774 1.076 51,395 181.27 11.9% 49,699 26.9% 3.65 -11.8%x 2016.2 30 292,648 1,155 55,651 1.076 59,870 204.58 -17.1% 51,828 -10.6% 3.95 -7.3% 193.11 -5.9%

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Oliver, Wyman Limited

Exhibit 1 Page 1


Third Party Liability - Property Damage


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 227,605 4,815 13,853 1.077 14,920 65.55 3,099 21.16x 2002.2 2 233,675 4,591 15,562 1.077 16,760 71.73 3,651 19.65 68.68x 2003.1 3 225,987 4,349 14,536 1.078 15,670 69.34 5.8% 3,603 16.3% 19.24 -9.0%x 2003.2 4 231,167 3,954 13,059 1.078 14,077 60.90 -15.1% 3,560 -2.5% 17.10 -12.9% 65.07 -5.3%x 2004.1 5 228,995 4,306 13,339 1.140 15,207 66.41 -4.2% 3,531 -2.0% 18.80 -2.3%x 2004.2 6 237,710 4,582 15,059 1.140 17,167 72.22 18.6% 3,747 5.2% 19.28 12.7% 69.37 6.6%x 2005.1 7 233,246 4,663 14,358 1.097 15,745 67.50 1.7% 3,376 -4.4% 19.99 6.3%x 2005.2 8 242,670 4,771 16,173 1.097 17,735 73.08 1.2% 3,717 -0.8% 19.66 2.0% 70.35 1.4%x 2006.1 9 238,343 4,672 15,037 1.099 16,518 69.30 2.7% 3,535 4.7% 19.60 -1.9%x 2006.2 10 247,025 5,590 18,088 1.099 19,870 80.44 10.1% 3,555 -4.4% 22.63 15.1% 74.97 6.6%x 2007.1 11 242,643 5,167 16,128 1.105 17,819 73.44 6.0% 3,449 -2.5% 21.29 8.6%x 2007.2 12 251,028 5,785 19,891 1.105 21,977 87.55 8.8% 3,799 6.9% 23.04 1.8% 80.61 7.5%x 2008.1 13 248,355 5,034 16,545 1.095 18,109 72.91 -0.7% 3,597 4.3% 20.27 -4.8%x 2008.2 14 256,856 5,676 18,882 1.095 20,666 80.46 -8.1% 3,641 -4.2% 22.10 -4.1% 76.75 -4.8%x 2009.1 15 252,193 5,661 18,658 1.106 20,627 81.79 12.2% 3,644 1.3% 22.45 10.7%x 2009.2 16 261,934 6,296 21,044 1.106 23,264 88.82 10.4% 3,695 1.5% 24.04 8.8% 85.37 11.2%x 2010.1 17 258,209 5,699 18,276 1.108 20,244 78.40 -4.1% 3,552 -2.5% 22.07 -1.7%x 2010.2 18 270,157 6,479 22,261 1.108 24,657 91.27 2.8% 3,806 3.0% 23.98 -0.2% 84.98 -0.5%x 2011.1 19 265,301 5,818 20,612 1.105 22,780 85.86 9.5% 3,915 10.2% 21.93 -0.6%x 2011.2 20 273,240 6,480 23,607 1.105 26,090 95.48 4.6% 4,026 5.8% 23.71 -1.1% 90.75 6.8%x 2012.1 21 268,783 5,739 20,413 1.090 22,256 82.80 -3.6% 3,878 -1.0% 21.35 -2.6%x 2012.2 22 277,926 6,167 22,908 1.090 24,976 89.87 -5.9% 4,050 0.6% 22.19 -6.4% 86.39 -4.8%x 2013.1 23 271,964 5,784 22,054 1.093 24,116 88.67 7.1% 4,169 7.5% 21.27 -0.4%x 2013.2 24 280,961 6,911 27,092 1.093 29,625 105.44 17.3% 4,286 5.8% 24.60 10.9% 97.19 12.5%x 2014.1 25 274,004 6,836 26,720 1.086 29,021 105.91 19.4% 4,245 1.8% 24.95 17.3%x 2014.2 26 284,022 7,185 29,764 1.086 32,327 113.82 7.9% 4,499 5.0% 25.30 2.8% 109.94 13.1%x 2015.1 27 278,187 8,472 35,697 1.076 38,402 138.04 30.3% 4,533 6.8% 30.45 22.1%x 2015.2 28 287,974 7,345 33,755 1.076 36,314 126.10 10.8% 4,944 9.9% 25.51 0.8% 131.97 20.0%x 2016.1 29 283,524 6,929 32,095 1.076 34,528 121.78 -11.8% 4,983 9.9% 24.44 -19.7%x 2016.2 30 292,648 8,029 36,811 1.076 39,601 135.32 7.3% 4,932 -0.2% 27.44 7.6% 128.66 -2.5%

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Exhibit 1 Page 2


Accident Benefits - All Disability Income


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 226,933 436 2,895 1.077 3,118 13.74 7,152 1.92x 2002.2 2 233,043 502 3,747 1.077 4,036 17.32 8,038 2.15 15.55x 2003.1 3 225,430 366 1,877 1.078 2,023 8.98 -34.7% 5,525 -22.7% 1.62 -15.4%x 2003.2 4 231,721 388 2,992 1.078 3,226 13.92 -19.6% 8,314 3.4% 1.67 -22.3% 11.48 -26.2%x 2004.1 5 229,205 344 3,222 1.140 3,673 16.02 78.5% 10,677 93.3% 1.50 -7.6%x 2004.2 6 237,535 409 3,570 1.140 4,069 17.13 23.1% 9,950 19.7% 1.72 2.8% 16.59 44.5%x 2005.1 7 232,976 367 3,080 1.097 3,378 14.50 -9.5% 9,204 -13.8% 1.58 5.0%x 2005.2 8 242,772 406 3,389 1.097 3,716 15.31 -10.7% 9,152 -8.0% 1.67 -2.9% 14.91 -10.1%x 2006.1 9 238,659 354 3,151 1.099 3,461 14.50 0.0% 9,778 6.2% 1.48 -5.8%x 2006.2 10 247,234 350 3,762 1.099 4,132 16.71 9.2% 11,806 29.0% 1.42 -15.3% 15.63 4.8%x 2007.1 11 242,797 329 2,417 1.105 2,671 11.00 -24.1% 8,119 -17.0% 1.36 -8.6%x 2007.2 12 251,152 338 2,622 1.105 2,897 11.53 -31.0% 8,571 -27.4% 1.35 -4.9% 11.27 -27.9%x 2008.1 13 248,490 247 1,485 1.095 1,626 6.54 -40.5% 6,582 -18.9% 0.99 -26.6%x 2008.2 14 256,946 295 2,146 1.095 2,349 9.14 -20.7% 7,963 -7.1% 1.15 -14.7% 7.86 -30.2%x 2009.1 15 252,308 269 2,249 1.106 2,487 9.86 50.6% 9,249 40.5% 1.07 7.2%x 2009.2 16 261,917 284 1,705 1.106 1,885 7.20 -21.3% 6,642 -16.6% 1.08 -5.6% 8.50 8.1%x 2010.1 17 258,170 224 3,552 1.108 3,934 15.24 54.6% 17,571 90.0% 0.87 -18.6%x 2010.2 18 270,110 313 3,136 1.108 3,474 12.86 78.7% 11,105 67.2% 1.16 6.9% 14.02 64.9%x 2011.1 19 265,279 244 3,652 1.105 4,036 15.21 -0.2% 16,540 -5.9% 0.92 6.1%x 2011.2 20 273,308 309 4,293 1.105 4,745 17.36 35.0% 15,374 38.4% 1.13 -2.5% 16.30 16.3%x 2012.1 21 268,288 291 3,870 1.090 4,219 15.73 3.4% 14,498 -12.3% 1.08 17.9%x 2012.2 22 277,203 311 6,797 1.090 7,410 26.73 54.0% 23,825 55.0% 1.12 -0.6% 21.32 30.8%x 2013.1 23 272,364 250 2,923 1.093 3,197 11.74 -25.4% 12,801 -11.7% 0.92 -15.5%x 2013.2 24 281,826 287 6,454 1.093 7,058 25.04 -6.3% 24,633 3.4% 1.02 -9.4% 18.50 -13.2%x 2014.1 25 275,006 224 4,332 1.086 4,705 17.11 45.8% 21,016 64.2% 0.81 -11.2%x 2014.2 26 284,820 255 3,492 1.086 3,792 13.32 -46.8% 14,845 -39.7% 0.90 -11.8% 15.18 -18.0%x 2015.1 27 278,617 250 4,354 1.076 4,684 16.81 -1.7% 18,749 -10.8% 0.90 10.1%x 2015.2 28 288,128 271 6,135 1.076 6,600 22.90 72.0% 24,385 64.3% 0.94 4.7% 19.91 31.2%x 2016.1 29 283,883 233 4,777 1.076 5,139 18.10 7.7% 22,065 17.7% 0.82 -8.5%x 2016.2 30 292,899 272 4,737 1.076 5,096 17.40 -24.0% 18,711 -23.3% 0.93 -1.0% 17.75 -10.9%

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Exhibit 1 Page 3


Accident Benefits - All Medical Expenses


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 226,933 1,817 7,454 1.077 8,028 35.38 4,419 8.01x 2002.2 2 233,043 2,031 8,027 1.077 8,645 37.10 4,256 8.72 36.25x 2003.1 3 225,430 1,788 6,378 1.078 6,876 30.50 -13.8% 3,846 -13.0% 7.93 -1.0%x 2003.2 4 231,721 1,626 6,112 1.078 6,589 28.44 -23.3% 4,052 -4.8% 7.02 -19.5% 29.45 -18.7%x 2004.1 5 229,205 1,400 5,656 1.140 6,447 28.13 -7.8% 4,605 19.7% 6.11 -23.0%x 2004.2 6 237,535 1,584 8,174 1.140 9,318 39.23 38.0% 5,883 45.2% 6.67 -5.0% 33.78 14.7%x 2005.1 7 232,976 1,417 5,306 1.097 5,818 24.97 -11.2% 4,106 -10.8% 6.08 -0.4%x 2005.2 8 242,772 1,552 6,070 1.097 6,657 27.42 -30.1% 4,289 -27.1% 6.39 -4.1% 26.22 -22.4%x 2006.1 9 238,659 1,374 5,525 1.099 6,069 25.43 1.8% 4,417 7.6% 5.76 -5.3%x 2006.2 10 247,234 1,502 5,805 1.099 6,377 25.79 -5.9% 4,246 -1.0% 6.08 -5.0% 25.62 -2.3%x 2007.1 11 242,797 1,450 4,953 1.105 5,472 22.54 -11.4% 3,774 -14.6% 5.97 3.7%x 2007.2 12 251,152 1,512 5,962 1.105 6,587 26.23 1.7% 4,357 2.6% 6.02 -0.9% 24.41 -4.7%x 2008.1 13 248,490 1,177 4,418 1.095 4,835 19.46 -13.7% 4,108 8.9% 4.74 -20.7%x 2008.2 14 256,946 1,300 5,188 1.095 5,678 22.10 -15.7% 4,368 0.3% 5.06 -16.0% 20.80 -14.8%x 2009.1 15 252,308 1,240 4,782 1.106 5,286 20.95 7.7% 4,263 3.8% 4.91 3.8%x 2009.2 16 261,917 1,447 5,790 1.106 6,400 24.44 10.6% 4,423 1.3% 5.52 9.2% 22.73 9.3%x 2010.1 17 258,170 1,270 6,190 1.108 6,856 26.56 26.7% 5,398 26.6% 4.92 0.1%x 2010.2 18 270,110 1,552 7,345 1.108 8,136 30.12 23.3% 5,242 18.5% 5.75 4.0% 28.38 24.9%x 2011.1 19 265,279 1,369 6,818 1.105 7,536 28.41 7.0% 5,505 2.0% 5.16 4.9%x 2011.2 20 273,308 1,611 8,258 1.105 9,127 33.40 10.9% 5,666 8.1% 5.89 2.6% 30.94 9.0%x 2012.1 21 268,288 1,386 7,636 1.090 8,325 31.03 9.2% 6,008 9.1% 5.16 0.1%x 2012.2 22 277,203 1,511 10,246 1.090 11,171 40.30 20.7% 7,395 30.5% 5.45 -7.5% 35.74 15.5%x 2013.1 23 272,364 1,394 6,965 1.093 7,616 27.96 -9.9% 5,465 -9.0% 5.12 -0.9%x 2013.2 24 281,826 1,834 11,025 1.093 12,055 42.78 6.1% 6,574 -11.1% 6.51 19.4% 35.50 -0.7%x 2014.1 25 275,006 1,515 8,068 1.086 8,763 31.86 14.0% 5,784 5.9% 5.51 7.7%x 2014.2 26 284,820 1,685 9,196 1.086 9,988 35.07 -18.0% 5,929 -9.8% 5.91 -9.1% 33.49 -5.6%x 2015.1 27 278,617 1,738 8,456 1.076 9,097 32.65 2.5% 5,234 -9.5% 6.24 13.3%x 2015.2 28 288,128 1,869 11,650 1.076 12,533 43.50 24.0% 6,705 13.1% 6.49 9.7% 38.17 14.0%x 2016.1 29 283,883 1,746 11,332 1.076 12,191 42.94 31.5% 6,980 33.4% 6.15 -1.4%x 2016.2 30 292,899 2,036 10,906 1.076 11,732 40.06 -7.9% 5,762 -14.1% 6.95 7.2% 41.48 8.7%

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Exhibit 1 Page 4


Accident Benefits - Death Benefits


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

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% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 226,933 8 59 1.077 63 0.28 7,884 0.04x 2002.2 2 233,043 23 208 1.077 224 0.96 9,659 0.10 0.62x 2003.1 3 225,430 11 142 1.078 153 0.68 144.4% 13,920 76.6% 0.05 38.4%x 2003.2 4 231,721 14 111 1.078 120 0.52 -46.3% 8,544 -11.5% 0.06 -39.3% 0.60 -4.4%x 2004.1 5 229,205 19 158 1.140 180 0.78 15.3% 9,450 -32.1% 0.08 69.9%x 2004.2 6 237,535 18 127 1.140 145 0.61 18.4% 8,062 -5.6% 0.08 25.4% 0.70 16.6%x 2005.1 7 232,976 14 101 1.097 111 0.48 -39.4% 7,906 -16.3% 0.06 -27.5%x 2005.2 8 242,772 15 121 1.097 132 0.54 -10.9% 8,809 9.3% 0.06 -18.5% 0.51 -26.6%x 2006.1 9 238,659 14 186 1.099 205 0.86 80.6% 14,624 85.0% 0.06 -2.4%x 2006.2 10 247,234 14 133 1.099 146 0.59 8.8% 10,454 18.7% 0.06 -8.4% 0.72 41.6%x 2007.1 11 242,797 18 219 1.105 242 1.00 16.1% 13,440 -8.1% 0.07 26.4%x 2007.2 12 251,152 13 110 1.105 121 0.48 -18.5% 9,319 -10.9% 0.05 -8.6% 0.74 1.7%x 2008.1 13 248,490 11 153 1.095 168 0.67 -32.3% 15,241 13.4% 0.04 -40.3%x 2008.2 14 256,946 19 222 1.095 243 0.95 96.3% 12,808 37.4% 0.07 42.9% 0.81 10.6%x 2009.1 15 252,308 14 129 1.106 143 0.57 -16.2% 10,192 -33.1% 0.06 25.3%x 2009.2 16 261,917 10 151 1.106 167 0.64 -32.5% 16,748 30.8% 0.04 -48.4% 0.60 -25.8%x 2010.1 17 258,170 8 120 1.108 133 0.51 -9.1% 16,590 62.8% 0.03 -44.2%x 2010.2 18 270,110 12 202 1.108 224 0.83 29.8% 18,682 11.5% 0.04 16.4% 0.68 12.0%x 2011.1 19 265,279 11 142 1.105 157 0.59 15.2% 14,279 -13.9% 0.04 33.8%x 2011.2 20 273,308 11 91 1.105 100 0.37 -55.8% 9,116 -51.2% 0.04 -9.4% 0.48 -29.3%x 2012.1 21 268,288 7 204 1.090 223 0.83 40.2% 31,692 121.9% 0.03 -36.8%x 2012.2 22 277,203 17 461 1.090 503 1.81 394.4% 29,473 223.3% 0.06 52.9% 1.33 178.4%x 2013.1 23 272,364 8 164 1.093 179 0.66 -20.8% 22,384 -29.4% 0.03 12.2%x 2013.2 24 281,826 16 297 1.093 325 1.15 -36.5% 20,453 -30.6% 0.06 -8.5% 0.91 -31.6%x 2014.1 25 275,006 4 100 1.086 108 0.39 -40.0% 27,105 21.1% 0.01 -50.5%x 2014.2 26 284,820 14 344 1.086 374 1.31 13.8% 26,801 31.0% 0.05 -13.1% 0.86 -5.3%x 2015.1 27 278,617 6 112 1.076 121 0.43 9.9% 20,362 -24.9% 0.02 46.3%x 2015.2 28 288,128 10 186 1.076 200 0.70 -47.0% 20,848 -22.2% 0.03 -31.9% 0.57 -34.2%x 2016.1 29 283,883 6 131 1.076 141 0.50 14.8% 21,940 7.7% 0.02 6.6%x 2016.2 30 292,899 11 312 1.076 336 1.15 64.8% 31,018 48.8% 0.04 10.8% 0.83 46.0%

0

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Exhibit 1 Page 5


Accident Benefits - Funeral


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 226,933 16 34 1.077 36 0.16 2,274 0.07x 2002.2 2 233,043 33 51 1.077 55 0.24 1,679 0.14 0.20x 2003.1 3 225,430 16 30 1.078 32 0.14 -11.9% 1,990 -12.5% 0.07 0.7%x 2003.2 4 231,721 15 50 1.078 54 0.23 -2.9% 3,568 112.5% 0.06 -54.3% 0.19 -6.4%x 2004.1 5 229,205 30 72 1.140 82 0.36 153.3% 2,733 37.3% 0.13 84.4%x 2004.2 6 237,535 21 39 1.140 44 0.19 -19.6% 2,101 -41.1% 0.09 36.6% 0.27 44.7%x 2005.1 7 232,976 15 55 1.097 60 0.26 -28.0% 4,001 46.4% 0.06 -50.8%x 2005.2 8 242,772 21 25 1.097 28 0.11 -38.6% 1,318 -37.3% 0.09 -2.2% 0.18 -31.8%x 2006.1 9 238,659 21 28 1.099 30 0.13 -50.7% 1,444 -63.9% 0.09 36.7%x 2006.2 10 247,234 27 37 1.099 40 0.16 42.8% 1,491 13.1% 0.11 26.3% 0.15 -21.2%x 2007.1 11 242,797 32 62 1.105 68 0.28 121.5% 2,136 47.9% 0.13 49.8%x 2007.2 12 251,152 28 49 1.105 54 0.21 31.9% 1,927 29.2% 0.11 2.1% 0.25 70.4%x 2008.1 13 248,490 21 32 1.095 35 0.14 -50.1% 1,661 -22.2% 0.08 -35.9%x 2008.2 14 256,946 30 38 1.095 42 0.16 -24.0% 1,398 -27.5% 0.12 4.7% 0.15 -38.6%x 2009.1 15 252,308 20 29 1.106 32 0.13 -10.4% 1,586 -4.5% 0.08 -6.2%x 2009.2 16 261,917 21 29 1.106 32 0.12 -24.1% 1,544 10.5% 0.08 -31.3% 0.12 -17.9%x 2010.1 17 258,170 22 27 1.108 30 0.11 -9.1% 1,342 -15.4% 0.09 7.5%x 2010.2 18 270,110 24 39 1.108 43 0.16 29.9% 1,811 17.3% 0.09 10.8% 0.14 10.7%x 2011.1 19 265,279 17 28 1.105 31 0.12 1.4% 1,809 34.8% 0.06 -24.8%x 2011.2 20 273,308 19 29 1.105 32 0.12 -26.2% 1,708 -5.7% 0.07 -21.8% 0.12 -15.1%x 2012.1 21 268,288 26 59 1.090 65 0.24 107.9% 2,486 37.5% 0.10 51.2%x 2012.2 22 277,203 27 74 1.090 80 0.29 143.6% 2,963 73.5% 0.10 40.4% 0.27 126.3%x 2013.1 23 272,364 15 40 1.093 44 0.16 -33.2% 2,915 17.2% 0.06 -43.0%x 2013.2 24 281,826 23 66 1.093 72 0.26 -11.6% 3,148 6.3% 0.08 -16.8% 0.21 -21.2%x 2014.1 25 275,006 8 26 1.086 29 0.10 -35.4% 3,574 22.6% 0.03 -47.3%x 2014.2 26 284,820 17 50 1.086 54 0.19 -25.2% 3,219 2.3% 0.06 -26.9% 0.15 -29.1%x 2015.1 27 278,617 9 27 1.076 29 0.10 -0.9% 3,205 -10.3% 0.03 10.5%x 2015.2 28 288,128 19 60 1.076 65 0.23 18.0% 3,463 7.6% 0.07 9.7% 0.17 11.5%x 2016.1 29 283,883 10 22 1.076 23 0.08 -20.9% 2,402 -25.1% 0.03 5.6%x 2016.2 30 292,899 20 70 1.076 76 0.26 14.7% 3,806 9.9% 0.07 4.4% 0.17 3.8%

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Exhibit 1 Page 6


Collision


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 131,836 5,339 16,321 1.077 17,578 133.33 3,292 40.50x 2002.2 2 133,786 5,186 18,863 1.077 20,315 151.85 3,917 38.76 142.66x 2003.1 3 129,180 4,684 15,184 1.078 16,369 126.71 -5.0% 3,495 6.1% 36.26 -10.5%x 2003.2 4 130,797 4,198 14,825 1.078 15,982 122.19 -19.5% 3,807 -2.8% 32.10 -17.2% 124.44 -12.8%x 2004.1 5 129,660 4,967 16,481 1.140 18,788 144.91 14.4% 3,783 8.2% 38.31 5.6%x 2004.2 6 134,400 5,335 17,520 1.140 19,973 148.61 21.6% 3,744 -1.7% 39.69 23.7% 146.79 18.0%x 2005.1 7 133,013 5,314 16,580 1.097 18,182 136.69 -5.7% 3,421 -9.5% 39.95 4.3%x 2005.2 8 139,455 5,572 19,332 1.097 21,200 152.02 2.3% 3,805 1.6% 39.96 0.7% 144.54 -1.5%x 2006.1 9 140,195 5,558 19,776 1.099 21,724 154.95 13.4% 3,909 14.2% 39.64 -0.8%x 2006.2 10 147,633 6,713 21,611 1.099 23,740 160.80 5.8% 3,536 -7.1% 45.47 13.8% 157.95 9.3%x 2007.1 11 147,705 6,815 23,312 1.105 25,758 174.39 12.5% 3,780 -3.3% 46.14 16.4%x 2007.2 12 155,568 6,709 25,790 1.105 28,495 183.17 13.9% 4,247 20.1% 43.13 -5.2% 178.89 13.3%x 2008.1 13 156,888 5,941 23,933 1.095 26,194 166.96 -4.3% 4,409 16.7% 37.87 -17.9%x 2008.2 14 163,563 6,197 24,889 1.095 27,241 166.55 -9.1% 4,396 3.5% 37.89 -12.1% 166.75 -6.8%x 2009.1 15 161,853 6,625 24,599 1.106 27,194 168.02 0.6% 4,105 -6.9% 40.94 8.1%x 2009.2 16 167,924 6,932 26,481 1.106 29,275 174.33 4.7% 4,223 -3.9% 41.28 9.0% 171.23 2.7%x 2010.1 17 166,011 5,906 21,982 1.108 24,348 146.66 -12.7% 4,123 0.4% 35.57 -13.1%x 2010.2 18 172,320 6,354 25,598 1.108 28,354 164.54 -5.6% 4,462 5.7% 36.88 -10.7% 155.77 -9.0%x 2011.1 19 169,705 6,225 24,050 1.105 26,580 156.63 6.8% 4,270 3.6% 36.68 3.1%x 2011.2 20 175,173 6,774 27,052 1.105 29,898 170.68 3.7% 4,413 -1.1% 38.67 4.9% 163.76 5.1%x 2012.1 21 173,640 6,305 25,480 1.090 27,781 159.99 2.1% 4,406 3.2% 36.31 -1.0%x 2012.2 22 179,105 6,290 25,295 1.090 27,580 153.99 -9.8% 4,385 -0.6% 35.12 -9.2% 156.94 -4.2%x 2013.1 23 176,938 5,985 25,337 1.093 27,705 156.58 -2.1% 4,629 5.1% 33.83 -6.8%x 2013.2 24 183,913 5,635 27,547 1.093 30,121 163.78 6.4% 5,345 21.9% 30.64 -12.7% 160.25 2.1%x 2014.1 25 181,175 5,361 26,492 1.086 28,773 158.81 1.4% 5,368 16.0% 29.59 -12.5%x 2014.2 26 187,846 4,835 26,977 1.086 29,300 155.98 -4.8% 6,060 13.4% 25.74 -16.0% 157.37 -1.8%x 2015.1 27 185,554 6,853 33,962 1.076 36,536 196.90 24.0% 5,332 -0.7% 36.93 24.8%x 2015.2 28 193,285 5,215 30,991 1.076 33,340 172.49 10.6% 6,393 5.5% 26.98 4.8% 184.45 17.2%x 2016.1 29 191,889 5,280 29,714 1.076 31,966 166.59 -15.4% 6,055 13.6% 27.51 -25.5%x 2016.2 30 198,241 5,742 34,336 1.076 36,939 186.33 8.0% 6,433 0.6% 28.97 7.4% 176.62 -4.2%

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Exhibit 1 Page 7


Comprehensive


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 160,328 11,849 11,365 1.077 12,240 76.34 1,033 73.90x 2002.2 2 162,605 10,325 10,836 1.077 11,670 71.77 1,130 63.50 74.04x 2003.1 3 157,402 8,514 9,085 1.078 9,794 62.22 -18.5% 1,150 11.4% 54.09 -26.8%x 2003.2 4 157,968 9,281 13,348 1.078 14,389 91.09 26.9% 1,550 37.2% 58.75 -7.5% 76.68 3.6%x 2004.1 5 156,135 7,210 7,640 1.140 8,710 55.79 -10.3% 1,208 5.0% 46.18 -14.6%x 2004.2 6 158,513 7,515 9,432 1.140 10,753 67.83 -25.5% 1,431 -7.7% 47.41 -19.3% 61.86 -19.3%x 2005.1 7 157,169 7,431 8,206 1.097 8,998 57.25 2.6% 1,211 0.2% 47.28 2.4%x 2005.2 8 163,251 8,130 10,540 1.097 11,558 70.80 4.4% 1,422 -0.6% 49.80 5.0% 64.16 3.7%x 2006.1 9 163,075 8,000 9,359 1.099 10,280 63.04 10.1% 1,285 6.1% 49.06 3.8%x 2006.2 10 169,763 8,634 11,664 1.099 12,813 75.48 6.6% 1,484 4.4% 50.86 2.1% 69.38 8.1%x 2007.1 11 169,785 9,591 10,366 1.105 11,454 67.46 7.0% 1,194 -7.1% 56.49 15.2%x 2007.2 12 177,021 10,187 13,706 1.105 15,143 85.55 13.3% 1,487 0.2% 57.55 13.2% 76.69 10.5%x 2008.1 13 178,754 10,414 11,932 1.095 13,060 73.06 8.3% 1,254 5.0% 58.26 3.1%x 2008.2 14 184,996 10,948 15,495 1.095 16,959 91.67 7.2% 1,549 4.2% 59.18 2.8% 82.53 7.6%x 2009.1 15 183,867 11,191 12,207 1.106 13,495 73.39 0.5% 1,206 -3.8% 60.86 4.5%x 2009.2 16 189,711 11,405 15,171 1.106 16,771 88.40 -3.6% 1,471 -5.1% 60.12 1.6% 81.02 -1.8%x 2010.1 17 188,634 9,861 11,540 1.108 12,783 67.76 -7.7% 1,296 7.5% 52.28 -14.1%x 2010.2 18 195,029 11,074 15,491 1.108 17,159 87.98 -0.5% 1,549 5.4% 56.78 -5.5% 78.04 -3.7%x 2011.1 19 193,136 12,499 13,140 1.105 14,522 75.19 11.0% 1,162 -10.4% 64.72 23.8%x 2011.2 20 197,871 13,696 17,034 1.105 18,826 95.14 8.1% 1,375 -11.3% 69.22 21.9% 85.29 9.3%x 2012.1 21 196,969 11,560 12,749 1.090 13,900 70.57 -6.1% 1,202 3.5% 58.69 -9.3%x 2012.2 22 201,954 12,013 16,697 1.090 18,205 90.14 -5.3% 1,515 10.2% 59.49 -14.1% 80.48 -5.6%x 2013.1 23 200,414 11,341 13,086 1.093 14,309 71.40 1.2% 1,262 4.9% 56.59 -3.6%x 2013.2 24 206,596 13,152 19,081 1.093 20,864 100.99 12.0% 1,586 4.7% 63.66 7.0% 86.42 7.4%x 2014.1 25 204,410 12,321 15,567 1.086 16,907 82.71 15.9% 1,372 8.8% 60.28 6.5%x 2014.2 26 210,227 12,642 20,962 1.086 22,766 108.29 7.2% 1,801 13.5% 60.13 -5.5% 95.68 10.7%x 2015.1 27 208,504 14,734 18,503 1.076 19,906 95.47 15.4% 1,351 -1.6% 70.67 17.2%x 2015.2 28 214,771 13,289 21,174 1.076 22,779 106.06 -2.1% 1,714 -4.8% 61.88 2.9% 100.84 5.4%x 2016.1 29 214,314 13,035 18,551 1.076 19,957 93.12 -2.5% 1,531 13.3% 60.82 -13.9%x 2016.2 30 219,606 13,771 25,232 1.076 27,145 123.61 16.5% 1,971 15.0% 62.71 1.3% 108.55 7.6%

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Exhibit 1 Page 8


All Perils


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Yearsx

x 2002.1 1 19,535 1,533 3,309 1.077 3,563 182.41 2,324 78.47x 2002.2 2 19,945 1,396 3,764 1.077 4,054 203.23 2,904 69.99 192.93x 2003.1 3 19,605 1,280 3,296 1.078 3,553 181.23 -0.6% 2,776 19.4% 65.29 -16.8%x 2003.2 4 20,776 1,545 4,346 1.078 4,684 225.47 10.9% 3,032 4.4% 74.36 6.2% 203.99 5.7%x 2004.1 5 21,434 1,551 3,712 1.140 4,232 197.44 8.9% 2,729 -1.7% 72.36 10.8%x 2004.2 6 23,003 1,765 4,491 1.140 5,119 222.55 -1.3% 2,901 -4.3% 76.73 3.2% 210.44 3.2%x 2005.1 7 22,468 1,583 4,421 1.097 4,848 215.78 9.3% 3,063 12.2% 70.46 -2.6%x 2005.2 8 22,435 1,451 4,432 1.097 4,861 216.66 -2.6% 3,350 15.5% 64.68 -15.7% 216.22 2.7%x 2006.1 9 21,492 1,338 3,994 1.099 4,387 204.14 -5.4% 3,279 7.1% 62.26 -11.6%x 2006.2 10 21,304 1,523 3,997 1.099 4,391 206.12 -4.9% 2,883 -13.9% 71.49 10.5% 205.12 -5.1%x 2007.1 11 20,566 1,503 3,796 1.105 4,194 203.94 -0.1% 2,791 -14.9% 73.08 17.4%x 2007.2 12 20,803 1,422 4,767 1.105 5,267 253.19 22.8% 3,704 28.5% 68.36 -4.4% 228.71 11.5%x 2008.1 13 20,450 1,285 4,306 1.095 4,713 230.48 13.0% 3,668 31.4% 62.84 -14.0%x 2008.2 14 20,787 1,484 4,529 1.095 4,957 238.48 -5.8% 3,341 -9.8% 71.39 4.4% 234.51 2.5%x 2009.1 15 20,289 1,487 4,146 1.106 4,583 225.88 -2.0% 3,082 -16.0% 73.29 16.6%x 2009.2 16 20,816 1,590 4,807 1.106 5,315 255.31 7.1% 3,342 0.1% 76.38 7.0% 240.78 2.7%x 2010.1 17 20,316 1,381 4,101 1.108 4,542 223.58 -1.0% 3,289 6.7% 67.97 -7.3%x 2010.2 18 21,026 1,600 4,866 1.108 5,389 256.32 0.4% 3,368 0.8% 76.10 -0.4% 240.23 -0.2%x 2011.1 19 20,677 1,531 4,178 1.105 4,617 223.32 -0.1% 3,016 -8.3% 74.04 8.9%x 2011.2 20 20,928 1,759 4,875 1.105 5,388 257.44 0.4% 3,063 -9.1% 84.04 10.4% 240.48 0.1%x 2012.1 21 20,266 1,439 4,337 1.090 4,728 233.31 4.5% 3,286 9.0% 71.00 -4.1%x 2012.2 22 20,559 1,554 4,718 1.090 5,145 250.23 -2.8% 3,311 8.1% 75.57 -10.1% 241.83 0.6%x 2013.1 23 19,976 1,377 4,091 1.093 4,474 223.97 -4.0% 3,250 -1.1% 68.92 -2.9%x 2013.2 24 20,477 1,428 4,229 1.093 4,624 225.83 -9.8% 3,239 -2.2% 69.72 -7.7% 224.91 -7.0%x 2014.1 25 20,025 1,252 4,194 1.086 4,555 227.48 1.6% 3,640 12.0% 62.50 -9.3%x 2014.2 26 20,668 1,274 4,731 1.086 5,138 248.61 10.1% 4,032 24.5% 61.66 -11.6% 238.21 5.9%x 2015.1 27 20,308 1,543 5,335 1.076 5,739 282.62 24.2% 3,719 2.2% 76.00 21.6%x 2015.2 28 20,932 1,267 4,749 1.076 5,109 244.07 -1.8% 4,033 0.0% 60.52 -1.9% 263.06 10.4%x 2016.1 29 20,614 1,288 4,766 1.076 5,127 248.73 -12.0% 3,979 7.0% 62.51 -17.8%x 2016.2 30 21,199 1,464 6,018 1.076 6,474 305.39 25.1% 4,422 9.6% 69.06 14.1% 277.46 5.5%

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Exhibit 1 Page 9


Specified Perils Exhibit 1


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Years

Page 1

x

x 2002.1 1 2,996 34 44 1.077 47 15.76 1,389 11.35x 2002.2 2 2,899 21 102 1.077 110 38.00 5,246 7.24 26.70x 2003.1 3 2,812 24 79 1.078 85 30.19 91.5% 3,538 154.7% 8.53 -24.8%x 2003.2 4 2,698 37 126 1.078 136 50.26 32.2% 3,664 -30.2% 13.72 89.3% 40.02 49.9%x 2004.1 5 2,698 24 72 1.140 82 30.27 0.2% 3,403 -3.8% 8.90 4.2%x 2004.2 6 2,605 19 75 1.140 86 32.89 -34.5% 4,509 23.1% 7.29 -46.8% 31.56 -21.1%x 2005.1 7 2,650 20 103 1.097 113 42.54 40.5% 5,635 65.6% 7.55 -15.1%x 2005.2 8 2,565 13 40 1.097 44 17.28 -47.5% 3,409 -24.4% 5.07 -30.5% 30.11 -4.6%x 2006.1 9 2,525 23 85 1.099 93 36.85 -13.4% 4,045 -28.2% 9.11 20.7%x 2006.2 10 2,358 15 103 1.099 113 47.85 176.9% 7,521 120.6% 6.36 25.5% 42.16 40.0%x 2007.1 11 2,319 13 77 1.105 85 36.48 -1.0% 6,507 60.9% 5.61 -38.5%x 2007.2 12 2,232 9 30 1.105 33 14.68 -69.3% 3,639 -51.6% 4.03 -36.6% 25.79 -38.8%x 2008.1 13 2,215 17 70 1.095 77 34.58 -5.2% 4,505 -30.8% 7.67 36.9%x 2008.2 14 2,064 16 53 1.095 58 28.09 91.4% 3,623 -0.4% 7.75 92.2% 31.45 21.9%x 2009.1 15 2,101 10 59 1.106 65 31.05 -10.2% 6,522 44.8% 4.76 -38.0%x 2009.2 16 1,980 19 135 1.106 149 75.42 168.5% 7,859 116.9% 9.60 23.8% 52.58 67.2%x 2010.1 17 2,007 5 50 1.108 56 27.70 -10.8% 11,118 70.5% 2.49 -47.7%x 2010.2 18 1,901 10 54 1.108 60 31.55 -58.2% 5,998 -23.7% 5.26 -45.2% 29.58 -43.8%x 2011.1 19 1,913 12 90 1.105 99 51.80 87.0% 8,260 -25.7% 6.27 151.7%x 2011.2 20 1,810 11 63 1.105 70 38.59 22.3% 6,351 5.9% 6.08 15.5% 45.38 53.4%x 2012.1 21 1,817 3 25 1.090 28 15.19 -70.7% 9,197 11.3% 1.65 -73.7%x 2012.2 22 1,720 8 33 1.090 36 21.20 -45.1% 4,557 -28.2% 4.65 -23.4% 18.11 -60.1%x 2013.1 23 1,744 8 32 1.093 35 20.24 33.3% 4,412 -52.0% 4.59 177.9%x 2013.2 24 1,577 10 48 1.093 53 33.56 58.3% 5,291 16.1% 6.34 36.3% 26.57 46.7%x 2014.1 25 1,603 5 17 1.086 18 11.33 -44.0% 3,634 -17.6% 3.12 -32.0%x 2014.2 26 1,496 7 110 1.086 119 79.87 138.0% 17,066 222.5% 4.68 -26.2% 44.41 67.2%x 2015.1 27 1,510 9 52 1.076 56 37.31 229.2% 6,260 72.2% 5.96 91.1%x 2015.2 28 1,360 1 3 1.076 4 2.58 -96.8% 3,514 -79.4% 0.74 -84.3% 20.86 -53.0%x 2016.1 29 1,375 5 19 1.076 20 14.73 -60.5% 4,051 -35.3% 3.64 -39.0%x 2016.2 30 1,221 1 11 1.076 11 9.29 259.5% 10,733 205.4% 0.87 17.7% 12.17 -41.6%

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Exhibit 1 Page 10


Uninsured Exhibit 1


Earned Exposures

Ultimate Counts

Ultimate Losses

ULAE Adjustment


Ultimate Loss Cost



% Change Seasonal

Accident Half Years

Ultimate Freq. per

1000



% Change Accident

Years

Page 1

x

x 2002.1 1 210,425 68 1,619 1.077 1,743 8.29 25,640 0.32x 2002.2 2 215,836 76 2,086 1.077 2,246 10.41 29,555 0.35 9.36x 2003.1 3 210,122 72 1,593 1.078 1,717 8.17 -1.4% 23,846 -7.0% 0.34 6.0%x 2003.2 4 221,592 113 1,836 1.078 1,979 8.93 -14.2% 17,512 -40.7% 0.51 44.8% 8.56 -8.5%x 2004.1 5 223,404 101 1,552 1.140 1,770 7.92 -3.1% 17,522 -26.5% 0.45 31.9%x 2004.2 6 232,781 78 1,161 1.140 1,324 5.69 -36.3% 16,970 -3.1% 0.34 -34.3% 6.78 -20.8%x 2005.1 7 228,417 70 1,188 1.097 1,303 5.70 -28.0% 18,611 6.2% 0.31 -32.2%x 2005.2 8 239,101 64 1,104 1.097 1,211 5.06 -11.0% 18,917 11.5% 0.27 -20.1% 5.38 -20.7%x 2006.1 9 236,073 77 1,012 1.099 1,112 4.71 -17.4% 14,466 -22.3% 0.33 6.2%x 2006.2 10 245,082 67 1,353 1.099 1,486 6.06 19.8% 22,227 17.5% 0.27 1.9% 5.40 0.4%x 2007.1 11 240,759 59 763 1.105 843 3.50 -25.6% 14,318 -1.0% 0.24 -24.9%x 2007.2 12 249,180 91 1,275 1.105 1,409 5.65 -6.8% 15,511 -30.2% 0.36 33.6% 4.60 -14.9%x 2008.1 13 246,597 66 1,200 1.095 1,314 5.33 52.1% 19,943 39.3% 0.27 9.2%x 2008.2 14 255,018 59 588 1.095 643 2.52 -55.4% 10,947 -29.4% 0.23 -36.8% 3.90 -15.1%x 2009.1 15 250,413 43 712 1.106 787 3.14 -41.0% 18,471 -7.4% 0.17 -36.3%x 2009.2 16 260,149 69 1,329 1.106 1,469 5.65 123.9% 21,175 93.4% 0.27 15.8% 4.42 13.3%x 2010.1 17 256,484 53 744 1.108 824 3.21 2.2% 15,693 -15.0% 0.20 20.3%x 2010.2 18 268,484 76 1,552 1.108 1,720 6.40 13.4% 22,537 6.4% 0.28 6.6% 4.85 9.7%x 2011.1 19 263,595 61 1,510 1.105 1,669 6.33 97.0% 27,234 73.5% 0.23 13.5%x 2011.2 20 271,604 73 1,297 1.105 1,433 5.28 -17.6% 19,703 -12.6% 0.27 -5.8% 5.80 19.6%x 2012.1 21 267,627 64 1,439 1.090 1,569 5.86 -7.4% 24,681 -9.4% 0.24 2.2%x 2012.2 22 277,054 80 2,209 1.090 2,408 8.69 64.7% 29,962 52.1% 0.29 8.3% 7.30 26.0%x 2013.1 23 271,944 83 1,446 1.093 1,581 5.81 -0.8% 19,062 -22.8% 0.30 28.4%x 2013.2 24 281,511 112 3,344 1.093 3,657 12.99 49.5% 32,786 9.4% 0.40 36.6% 9.46 29.6%x 2014.1 25 274,701 88 1,129 1.086 1,227 4.46 -23.2% 14,005 -26.5% 0.32 4.5%x 2014.2 26 284,629 82 1,765 1.086 1,917 6.73 -48.2% 23,436 -28.5% 0.29 -27.5% 5.62 -40.6%x 2015.1 27 278,307 134 2,502 1.076 2,692 9.67 116.6% 20,141 43.8% 0.48 50.6%x 2015.2 28 287,859 113 2,634 1.076 2,834 9.85 46.2% 25,035 6.8% 0.39 36.9% 9.76 73.7%x 2016.1 29 283,493 104 1,773 1.076 1,908 6.73 -30.4% 18,370 -8.8% 0.37 -23.7%x 2016.2 30 292,716 113 2,107 1.076 2,267 7.75 -21.3% 20,067 -19.8% 0.39 -1.8% 7.25 -25.8%

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Exhibit 1 Page 11

Exhibit 2Page 1

As of 2016-2Age-to-Ultimate FactorsIncurred Claim Amount

Bodily Injury

Property Damage

and DCPD

AB - Disability

Income

AB - Medical /

RehabAB -

Funeral AB - Death CollisionCompre-hensive

Specified Perils All Perils

Uninsured Motorist

180-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 174-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 168-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 162-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 156-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 150-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 144-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.986 138-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.985 132-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.980 126-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.978 120-Ult 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.923 114-Ult 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.924 108-Ult 1.002 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.923 102-Ult 0.999 1.000 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.924 96-Ult 0.994 1.000 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.919 90-Ult 0.991 1.000 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.919 84-Ult 0.993 0.999 1.021 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.911 78-Ult 0.994 1.000 1.026 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.913 72-Ult 1.001 1.000 1.037 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.909 66-Ult 1.006 0.997 1.032 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.828 60-Ult 1.024 1.002 1.039 0.997 0.999 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.859 54-Ult 1.043 0.999 1.063 0.990 0.998 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.891 48-Ult 1.070 1.004 1.094 0.975 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.870 42-Ult 1.118 1.010 1.214 0.977 0.989 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.013 1.000 0.904 36-Ult 1.181 1.012 1.372 0.977 0.990 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.003 0.998 0.945 30-Ult 1.272 1.013 1.513 0.992 0.972 0.997 0.997 0.999 1.003 0.999 0.983 24-Ult 1.384 1.015 1.789 1.012 0.985 0.988 0.995 0.999 1.003 0.997 1.014 18-Ult 1.488 1.020 2.150 1.031 0.946 0.970 0.990 1.000 1.016 0.987 1.142 12-Ult 1.580 1.023 2.265 1.001 0.946 0.941 0.982 1.002 1.022 0.981 1.292 6-Ult 2.000 0.993 2.262 0.774 0.971 0.987 0.925 1.055 1.647 0.934 1.714

Oliver Wyman Selected Age-to-Ultimate Development FactorsAs of December 31, 2016

Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Automobile (Excluding Farmers)


Exhibit 2Page 2

As of 2016-2Age-to-Ultimate FactorsIncurred Claim Count

Bodily Injury

Property Damage

and DCPD

AB - Disability

Income

AB - Medical /

RehabAB -

Funeral AB - Death CollisionCompre-hensive

Specified Perils All Perils

Uninsured Motorist

180-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 174-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 168-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 162-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 156-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 150-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 144-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 138-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 132-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 126-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 120-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 114-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 108-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 102-Ult 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 96-Ult 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.991 90-Ult 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.991 84-Ult 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.991 78-Ult 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.991 72-Ult 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.988 66-Ult 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.983 60-Ult 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.978 54-Ult 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.980 48-Ult 1.001 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.987 42-Ult 1.001 1.000 1.002 0.999 0.996 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.978 36-Ult 1.003 1.001 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.962 30-Ult 1.003 1.002 1.002 0.999 0.995 0.996 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.974 24-Ult 0.996 1.002 0.991 0.997 0.995 0.988 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.976 18-Ult 0.977 1.003 0.970 0.993 0.988 0.961 0.997 1.002 1.000 0.998 0.951 12-Ult 0.932 1.004 0.932 0.975 0.964 0.920 0.994 1.009 1.000 0.997 0.953 6-Ult 0.973 1.000 0.815 0.844 0.996 0.902 0.945 1.125 1.057 1.046 1.141

Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Automobile (Excluding Farmers)

Oliver Wyman Selected Age-to-Ultimate Development FactorsAs of December 31, 2016


Bodily Injury Province on Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles

Industry Data as of December 31, 2016

Ending 2016-2With SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 2010 Increased by 23%

Loss Cost Severity Frequency

Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval TimeT Pval

Seasonality Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval TimeT Pval


Seasonality

2002.1-2016.2 -2.3 +-1.9 0.25 2.1% 1.9% 1.3 +-1.3 0.19 4.8% 5.4% -3.6 +-0.8 0.74 0.0% 1.5%2002.2-2016.2 -1.6 +-1.8 0.28 8.6% 0.4% 1.8 +-1.3 0.31 0.9% 1.7% -3.3 +-0.8 0.73 0.0% 0.5%2003.1-2016.2 -0.8 +-1.7 0.21 33.1% 0.7% 2.3 +-1.2 0.42 0.1% 3.2% -3.1 +-0.8 0.7 0.0% 1.0%2003.2-2016.2 0 +-1.5 0.39 95.2% 0.0% 2.9 +-1.1 0.59 0.0% 0.4% -2.7 +-0.8 0.71 0.0% 0.1%2004.1-2016.2 0.5 +-1.5 0.39 44.5% 0.0% 3.4 +-1 0.71 0.0% 0.5% -2.8 +-0.8 0.68 0.0% 0.2%2004.2-2016.2 1 +-1.5 0.47 17.6% 0.0% 3.8 +-1 0.76 0.0% 0.1% -2.7 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.2%2005.1-2016.2 1.4 +-1.5 0.49 6.1% 0.0% 4 +-1 0.78 0.0% 0.2% -2.4 +-0.9 0.6 0.0% 0.4%2005.2-2016.2 2 +-1.5 0.59 1.2% 0.0% 4.1 +-1.1 0.77 0.0% 0.2% -2.1 +-0.9 0.63 0.0% 0.1%2006.1-2016.2 2.3 +-1.6 0.61 0.6% 0.0% 4.3 +-1.2 0.77 0.0% 0.4% -1.9 +-1 0.55 0.1% 0.2%2006.2-2016.2 2.7 +-1.7 0.64 0.3% 0.0% 4.5 +-1.3 0.77 0.0% 0.3% -1.7 +-1 0.55 0.3% 0.1%2007.1-2016.2 3.2 +-1.7 0.68 0.1% 0.0% 4.6 +-1.4 0.76 0.0% 0.5% -1.3 +-1 0.46 1.5% 0.2%2007.2-2016.2 3.9 +-1.7 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 4.9 +-1.5 0.76 0.0% 0.3% -1 +-1 0.52 6.2% 0.1%2008.1-2016.2 4.4 +-1.8 0.79 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 +-1.7 0.76 0.0% 0.7% -0.6 +-1.1 0.45 22.1% 0.1%2008.2-2016.2 4.1 +-2 0.74 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.9 0.74 0.0% 0.7% -1.1 +-1 0.54 2.9% 0.2%2009.1-2016.2 3.4 +-2 0.77 0.2% 0.0% 4.9 +-2.2 0.72 0.0% 0.6% -1.5 +-1 0.64 0.7% 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 3.3 +-2.3 0.73 0.8% 0.0% 5 +-2.5 0.66 0.1% 1.0% -1.6 +-1.1 0.65 0.8% 0.1%2010.1-2016.2 4 +-2.5 0.76 0.5% 0.0% 5.8 +-2.7 0.72 0.0% 2.2% -1.8 +-1.3 0.62 1.1% 0.2%2010.2-2016.2 4 +-3 0.71 1.1% 0.1% 6.1 +-3.1 0.67 0.1% 2.7% -1.9 +-1.5 0.62 1.7% 0.4%2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-2.9 0.79 6.0% 0.0% 4.8 +-3.1 0.7 0.7% 0.8% -2 +-1.8 0.55 3.6% 0.8%2011.2-2016.2 2.5 +-3.5 0.74 12.8% 0.1% 5.2 +-3.8 0.65 1.2% 1.2% -2.5 +-2 0.6 2.2% 1.6%2012.1-2016.2 2.9 +-4.4 0.73 15.8% 0.2% 5.3 +-4.9 0.64 3.2% 2.6% -2.3 +-2.6 0.45 7.4% 3.7%2012.2-2016.2 3.7 +-5.5 0.72 14.4% 0.4% 6.1 +-6.1 0.6 4.5% 3.3% -2.3 +-3.3 0.43 15.0% 6.1%2013.1-2016.2 3.4 +-7.8 0.71 29.8% 1.2% 6.1 +-8.7 0.57 12.0% 6.7% -2.5 +-4.6 0.31 22.6% 9.5%2013.2-2016.2 1.6 +-10 0.6 67.6% 3.0% 4 +-11.1 0.3 36.0% 13.2% -2.3 +-6.7 0.26 39.2% 14.8%2014.1-2016.2 3.5 +-17 0.55 54.7% 9.3% 4 +-19.5 0.23 55.4% 23.8% -0.4 +-10.6 -0.14 90.9% 33.0%

Ending 2016-2With SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 2010 Increased by 23%Excluding 2010-2





Seasonality

2002.1-2016.2 -2.2 +-1.9 0.27 2.3% 1.2% 1.4 +-1.3 0.24 3.7% 2.8% -3.6 +-0.8 0.74 0.0% 1.6%2002.2-2016.2 -1.5 +-1.8 0.32 9.2% 0.2% 1.8 +-1.3 0.37 0.6% 0.7% -3.3 +-0.8 0.73 0.0% 0.6%2003.1-2016.2 -0.8 +-1.7 0.25 33.9% 0.4% 2.3 +-1.2 0.47 0.0% 1.3% -3.1 +-0.8 0.7 0.0% 1.2%2003.2-2016.2 0.1 +-1.4 0.45 91.3% 0.0% 2.9 +-1 0.65 0.0% 0.1% -2.7 +-0.8 0.71 0.0% 0.2%2004.1-2016.2 0.5 +-1.4 0.45 42.6% 0.0% 3.4 +-0.9 0.77 0.0% 0.1% -2.8 +-0.8 0.68 0.0% 0.2%2004.2-2016.2 1 +-1.4 0.54 15.5% 0.0% 3.8 +-0.9 0.82 0.0% 0.0% -2.7 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.2%2005.1-2016.2 1.4 +-1.4 0.56 5.6% 0.0% 3.9 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% 0.0% -2.4 +-1 0.6 0.0% 0.5%2005.2-2016.2 1.9 +-1.4 0.65 0.9% 0.0% 4.1 +-1 0.83 0.0% 0.0% -2.1 +-0.9 0.62 0.0% 0.1%2006.1-2016.2 2.2 +-1.5 0.67 0.5% 0.0% 4.2 +-1.1 0.82 0.0% 0.1% -1.9 +-1 0.54 0.1% 0.2%2006.2-2016.2 2.6 +-1.6 0.7 0.2% 0.0% 4.4 +-1.1 0.82 0.0% 0.0% -1.7 +-1.1 0.54 0.4% 0.2%2007.1-2016.2 3 +-1.7 0.72 0.1% 0.0% 4.4 +-1.3 0.81 0.0% 0.1% -1.3 +-1.1 0.44 2.0% 0.4%2007.2-2016.2 3.7 +-1.6 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 4.7 +-1.4 0.82 0.0% 0.0% -0.9 +-1.1 0.49 7.9% 0.1%2008.1-2016.2 4.1 +-1.7 0.82 0.0% 0.0% 4.7 +-1.6 0.81 0.0% 0.1% -0.6 +-1.1 0.39 29.1% 0.4%2008.2-2016.2 3.8 +-1.9 0.77 0.1% 0.0% 4.9 +-1.8 0.79 0.0% 0.2% -1 +-1 0.49 4.7% 0.4%2009.1-2016.2 2.8 +-1.7 0.85 0.4% 0.0% 4.3 +-1.9 0.8 0.0% 0.1% -1.4 +-1.1 0.59 1.4% 0.1%2009.2-2016.2 2.5 +-1.9 0.83 1.5% 0.0% 4.2 +-2.2 0.75 0.1% 0.1% -1.6 +-1.2 0.6 1.5% 0.3%2010.1-2016.2 2.9 +-2.4 0.83 2.0% 0.0% 4.8 +-2.6 0.77 0.2% 0.5% -1.8 +-1.5 0.55 2.5% 0.4%2010.2-2016.2 2.7 +-2.9 0.79 6.0% 0.0% 4.8 +-3.1 0.7 0.7% 0.8% -2 +-1.8 0.55 3.6% 0.8%2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-2.9 0.79 6.0% 0.0% 4.8 +-3.1 0.7 0.7% 0.8% -2 +-1.8 0.55 3.6% 0.8%2011.2-2016.2 2.5 +-3.5 0.74 12.8% 0.1% 5.2 +-3.8 0.65 1.2% 1.2% -2.5 +-2 0.6 2.2% 1.6%2012.1-2016.2 2.9 +-4.4 0.73 15.8% 0.2% 5.3 +-4.9 0.64 3.2% 2.6% -2.3 +-2.6 0.45 7.4% 3.7%2012.2-2016.2 3.7 +-5.5 0.72 14.4% 0.4% 6.1 +-6.1 0.6 4.5% 3.3% -2.3 +-3.3 0.43 15.0% 6.1%2013.1-2016.2 3.4 +-7.8 0.71 29.8% 1.2% 6.1 +-8.7 0.57 12.0% 6.7% -2.5 +-4.6 0.31 22.6% 9.5%2013.2-2016.2 1.6 +-10 0.6 67.6% 3.0% 4 +-11.1 0.3 36.0% 13.2% -2.3 +-6.7 0.26 39.2% 14.8%2014.1-2016.2 3.5 +-17 0.55 54.7% 9.3% 4 +-19.5 0.23 55.4% 23.8% -0.4 +-10.6 -0.14 90.9% 33.0%

Exhibit 3 Page 1 of 25








Seasonality

2002.1-2016.2 -2.3 +-1.8 0.25 1.4% 3.5% 1.3 +-1.3 0.17 5.4% 8.1% -3.6 +-0.7 0.8 0.0% 2.5%2002.2-2016.2 -1.7 +-1.8 0.27 6.0% 0.9% 1.7 +-1.3 0.29 1.1% 2.8% -3.4 +-0.7 0.79 0.0% 0.8%2003.1-2016.2 -0.9 +-1.6 0.19 24.8% 1.4% 2.3 +-1.3 0.4 0.1% 4.9% -3.2 +-0.7 0.77 0.0% 1.5%2003.2-2016.2 -0.1 +-1.4 0.37 88.6% 0.0% 2.8 +-1.1 0.57 0.0% 0.6% -2.9 +-0.6 0.8 0.0% 0.2%2004.1-2016.2 0.4 +-1.4 0.37 55.7% 0.1% 3.4 +-1 0.7 0.0% 0.8% -2.9 +-0.7 0.77 0.0% 0.2%2004.2-2016.2 0.8 +-1.4 0.44 24.9% 0.0% 3.7 +-1 0.75 0.0% 0.2% -2.8 +-0.7 0.76 0.0% 0.2%2005.1-2016.2 1.2 +-1.4 0.46 9.0% 0.0% 4 +-1.1 0.77 0.0% 0.4% -2.6 +-0.8 0.72 0.0% 0.5%2005.2-2016.2 1.7 +-1.4 0.56 2.2% 0.0% 4.1 +-1.2 0.75 0.0% 0.3% -2.3 +-0.7 0.73 0.0% 0.1%2006.1-2016.2 2.1 +-1.5 0.58 1.1% 0.0% 4.3 +-1.3 0.76 0.0% 0.6% -2.2 +-0.8 0.68 0.0% 0.1%2006.2-2016.2 2.4 +-1.7 0.59 0.7% 0.0% 4.6 +-1.4 0.75 0.0% 0.4% -2.1 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.2%2007.1-2016.2 2.9 +-1.8 0.63 0.3% 0.0% 4.6 +-1.6 0.73 0.0% 0.7% -1.7 +-0.9 0.61 0.1% 0.2%2007.2-2016.2 3.6 +-1.8 0.71 0.1% 0.0% 5.1 +-1.7 0.74 0.0% 0.4% -1.4 +-0.9 0.62 0.5% 0.1%2008.1-2016.2 4.1 +-2 0.74 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.9 0.74 0.0% 0.7% -1.1 +-1 0.54 2.9% 0.2%2008.2-2016.2 4.1 +-2 0.74 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.9 0.74 0.0% 0.7% -1.1 +-1 0.54 2.9% 0.2%2009.1-2016.2 3.4 +-2 0.77 0.2% 0.0% 4.9 +-2.2 0.72 0.0% 0.6% -1.5 +-1 0.64 0.7% 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 3.3 +-2.3 0.73 0.8% 0.0% 5 +-2.5 0.66 0.1% 1.0% -1.6 +-1.1 0.65 0.8% 0.1%2010.1-2016.2 4 +-2.5 0.76 0.5% 0.0% 5.8 +-2.7 0.72 0.0% 2.2% -1.8 +-1.3 0.62 1.1% 0.2%2010.2-2016.2 4 +-3 0.71 1.1% 0.1% 6.1 +-3.1 0.67 0.1% 2.7% -1.9 +-1.5 0.62 1.7% 0.4%2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-2.9 0.79 6.0% 0.0% 4.8 +-3.1 0.7 0.7% 0.8% -2 +-1.8 0.55 3.6% 0.8%2011.2-2016.2 2.5 +-3.5 0.74 12.8% 0.1% 5.2 +-3.8 0.65 1.2% 1.2% -2.5 +-2 0.6 2.2% 1.6%2012.1-2016.2 2.9 +-4.4 0.73 15.8% 0.2% 5.3 +-4.9 0.64 3.2% 2.6% -2.3 +-2.6 0.45 7.4% 3.7%2012.2-2016.2 3.7 +-5.5 0.72 14.4% 0.4% 6.1 +-6.1 0.6 4.5% 3.3% -2.3 +-3.3 0.43 15.0% 6.1%2013.1-2016.2 3.4 +-7.8 0.71 29.8% 1.2% 6.1 +-8.7 0.57 12.0% 6.7% -2.5 +-4.6 0.31 22.6% 9.5%2013.2-2016.2 1.6 +-10 0.6 67.6% 3.0% 4 +-11.1 0.3 36.0% 13.2% -2.3 +-6.7 0.26 39.2% 14.8%2014.1-2016.2 3.5 +-17 0.55 54.7% 9.3% 4 +-19.5 0.23 55.4% 23.8% -0.4 +-10.6 -0.14 90.9% 33.0%






Seasonality

2002.1-2016.2 -2.4 +-2 0.24 2.3% 2.0% 1.4 +-1.4 0.19 4.8% 7.5% -3.7 +-0.8 0.75 0.0% 0.7%2002.2-2016.2 -1.7 +-1.9 0.27 8.5% 0.5% 1.9 +-1.4 0.31 0.9% 2.6% -3.5 +-0.8 0.75 0.0% 0.2%2003.1-2016.2 -0.9 +-1.8 0.2 33.5% 0.9% 2.4 +-1.3 0.43 0.1% 5.4% -3.2 +-0.8 0.72 0.0% 0.5%2003.2-2016.2 0 +-1.6 0.38 99.2% 0.0% 3 +-1.2 0.6 0.0% 0.7% -2.9 +-0.8 0.74 0.0% 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 0.5 +-1.6 0.38 47.3% 0.1% 3.6 +-1 0.74 0.0% 1.2% -2.9 +-0.8 0.71 0.0% 0.1%2004.2-2016.2 1 +-1.6 0.46 20.1% 0.0% 4 +-1 0.79 0.0% 0.3% -2.9 +-0.9 0.7 0.0% 0.1%2005.1-2016.2 1.5 +-1.6 0.49 7.1% 0.1% 4.2 +-1 0.81 0.0% 0.6% -2.6 +-0.9 0.64 0.0% 0.2%2005.2-2016.2 2 +-1.6 0.58 1.6% 0.0% 4.4 +-1.1 0.8 0.0% 0.4% -2.3 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.0%2006.1-2016.2 2.4 +-1.7 0.61 0.7% 0.0% 4.6 +-1.2 0.81 0.0% 1.0% -2.1 +-1 0.61 0.0% 0.1%2006.2-2016.2 2.8 +-1.8 0.64 0.4% 0.0% 4.8 +-1.3 0.81 0.0% 0.7% -1.9 +-1 0.61 0.1% 0.1%2007.1-2016.2 3.3 +-1.9 0.68 0.1% 0.0% 4.9 +-1.4 0.8 0.0% 1.3% -1.5 +-1 0.53 0.6% 0.1%2007.2-2016.2 4 +-1.8 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.5 0.81 0.0% 0.7% -1.2 +-1 0.59 2.5% 0.0%2008.1-2016.2 4.6 +-1.9 0.79 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 +-1.7 0.81 0.0% 1.6% -0.9 +-1.1 0.53 10.3% 0.1%2008.2-2016.2 4.3 +-2.1 0.74 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 +-1.8 0.79 0.0% 1.5% -1.3 +-0.9 0.64 0.9% 0.0%2009.1-2016.2 3.6 +-2.2 0.77 0.3% 0.0% 5.5 +-2.1 0.77 0.0% 1.5% -1.8 +-0.9 0.77 0.1% 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 3.4 +-2.5 0.72 0.9% 0.0% 5.5 +-2.4 0.72 0.0% 2.3% -1.9 +-1 0.78 0.1% 0.0%2010.1-2016.2 4.2 +-2.7 0.76 0.5% 0.1% 6.5 +-2.4 0.81 0.0% 4.8% -2.2 +-1.1 0.77 0.1% 0.0%2010.2-2016.2 4.3 +-3.2 0.71 1.2% 0.3% 6.7 +-2.8 0.77 0.0% 5.8% -2.3 +-1.2 0.78 0.3% 0.1%2011.1-2016.2 2.9 +-3.1 0.78 6.2% 0.1% 5.5 +-2.8 0.79 0.2% 1.7% -2.5 +-1.5 0.74 0.6% 0.1%2011.2-2016.2 2.7 +-3.8 0.72 12.8% 0.3% 5.8 +-3.4 0.74 0.4% 2.4% -2.9 +-1.6 0.79 0.4% 0.2%2012.1-2016.2 3.2 +-5 0.71 15.6% 0.9% 6.2 +-4.4 0.73 1.2% 5.6% -2.8 +-2.1 0.7 1.9% 0.8%2012.2-2016.2 3.9 +-6.3 0.67 16.4% 1.5% 6.7 +-5.7 0.66 2.6% 7.6% -2.6 +-2.7 0.69 6.1% 1.6%2013.1-2016.2 3.7 +-9.3 0.65 32.3% 3.9% 7 +-8.4 0.63 7.6% 15.0% -3.1 +-3.9 0.63 10.0% 3.1%2013.2-2016.2 1.6 +-12.2 0.44 70.1% 9.7% 4 +-7.6 0.37 18.5% 24.9% -2.3 +-5.6 0.66 28.1% 5.1%2014.1-2016.2 3.5 +-25.9 0.34 60.7% 23.4% 4 +-16.8 0.21 40.7% 39.4% -0.4 +-8.7 0.61 85.6% 10.6%




Ending 2016-1With SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 2010 Increased by 23%





Seasonality

2002.1-2016.1 -2.5 +-2 0.26 1.7% 2.9% 1.2 +-1.4 0.13 9.8% 7.9% -3.6 +-0.9 0.73 0.0% 2.2%2002.2-2016.1 -1.8 +-2 0.28 7.5% 0.7% 1.6 +-1.4 0.25 2.1% 2.7% -3.4 +-0.9 0.72 0.0% 0.8%2003.1-2016.1 -1 +-1.8 0.2 28.0% 1.2% 2.2 +-1.3 0.36 0.2% 4.7% -3.1 +-0.9 0.69 0.0% 1.5%2003.2-2016.1 0 +-1.6 0.37 97.2% 0.0% 2.8 +-1.2 0.54 0.0% 0.6% -2.8 +-0.8 0.7 0.0% 0.2%2004.1-2016.1 0.5 +-1.6 0.36 52.4% 0.1% 3.4 +-1.1 0.67 0.0% 0.8% -2.8 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.3%2004.2-2016.1 1 +-1.6 0.44 21.5% 0.0% 3.8 +-1.1 0.73 0.0% 0.2% -2.7 +-1 0.66 0.0% 0.3%2005.1-2016.1 1.4 +-1.7 0.46 8.1% 0.0% 4 +-1.1 0.75 0.0% 0.4% -2.4 +-1 0.59 0.0% 0.6%2005.2-2016.1 2.1 +-1.6 0.57 1.6% 0.0% 4.2 +-1.2 0.74 0.0% 0.3% -2 +-1 0.62 0.0% 0.1%2006.1-2016.1 2.5 +-1.7 0.59 0.8% 0.0% 4.3 +-1.3 0.74 0.0% 0.6% -1.8 +-1.1 0.54 0.2% 0.2%2006.2-2016.1 2.9 +-1.8 0.63 0.3% 0.0% 4.6 +-1.4 0.74 0.0% 0.4% -1.6 +-1.1 0.54 0.9% 0.2%2007.1-2016.1 3.4 +-1.9 0.66 0.1% 0.0% 4.7 +-1.6 0.72 0.0% 0.7% -1.2 +-1.1 0.47 4.2% 0.2%2007.2-2016.1 4.3 +-1.8 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 +-1.7 0.73 0.0% 0.4% -0.7 +-1.1 0.55 18.3% 0.0%2008.1-2016.1 4.9 +-1.9 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.9 0.73 0.0% 0.8% -0.4 +-1.1 0.5 50.5% 0.1%2008.2-2016.1 4.7 +-2.2 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 +-2.2 0.71 0.0% 0.8% -0.9 +-1.1 0.56 10.3% 0.1%2009.1-2016.1 3.9 +-2.2 0.79 0.2% 0.0% 5.2 +-2.4 0.69 0.0% 0.7% -1.2 +-1.1 0.66 2.8% 0.0%2009.2-2016.1 3.9 +-2.5 0.74 0.6% 0.0% 5.3 +-2.9 0.63 0.1% 1.1% -1.4 +-1.3 0.66 3.4% 0.1%2010.1-2016.1 4.7 +-2.7 0.78 0.3% 0.0% 6.3 +-3 0.7 0.1% 2.1% -1.5 +-1.5 0.63 4.2% 0.2%2010.2-2016.1 5 +-3.3 0.74 0.7% 0.1% 6.7 +-3.7 0.65 0.2% 2.5% -1.6 +-1.8 0.62 6.7% 0.5%2011.1-2016.1 3.6 +-3.1 0.82 2.8% 0.0% 5.4 +-3.7 0.68 0.9% 0.9% -1.7 +-2.2 0.55 10.9% 1.0%2011.2-2016.1 3.7 +-4 0.78 6.1% 0.1% 6.1 +-4.6 0.65 1.4% 1.2% -2.3 +-2.6 0.59 7.5% 2.6%2012.1-2016.1 4.3 +-5.1 0.78 8.0% 0.2% 6.5 +-5.9 0.64 3.3% 2.6% -2 +-3.3 0.43 18.2% 5.2%2012.2-2016.1 6.2 +-6.2 0.82 4.5% 0.3% 8.2 +-7.7 0.64 3.6% 2.6% -1.8 +-4.6 0.41 35.6% 8.6%2013.1-2016.1 6.3 +-8.9 0.8 11.6% 0.9% 8.5 +-11.2 0.62 9.2% 6.0% -2.1 +-6.6 0.27 43.6% 13.5%2013.2-2016.1 5.1 +-15.2 0.68 35.5% 3.8% 6.6 +-18.5 0.28 32.6% 15.8% -1.4 +-11.5 0.21 72.0% 21.0%






Seasonality

2002.1-2016.1 -2.4 +-2 0.28 2.0% 2.0% 1.2 +-1.4 0.18 7.5% 4.3% -3.6 +-0.9 0.73 0.0% 2.4%2002.2-2016.1 -1.7 +-1.9 0.32 8.7% 0.4% 1.7 +-1.4 0.31 1.4% 1.2% -3.4 +-0.9 0.72 0.0% 0.9%2003.1-2016.1 -0.9 +-1.8 0.24 30.3% 0.7% 2.3 +-1.3 0.41 0.1% 2.0% -3.1 +-0.9 0.69 0.0% 1.7%2003.2-2016.1 0 +-1.5 0.44 95.4% 0.0% 2.9 +-1.1 0.61 0.0% 0.1% -2.7 +-0.9 0.7 0.0% 0.3%2004.1-2016.1 0.5 +-1.5 0.43 47.6% 0.0% 3.4 +-1 0.74 0.0% 0.1% -2.8 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.4%2004.2-2016.1 1 +-1.5 0.52 17.5% 0.0% 3.8 +-0.9 0.8 0.0% 0.0% -2.7 +-1 0.65 0.0% 0.4%2005.1-2016.1 1.4 +-1.6 0.53 6.8% 0.0% 4 +-1 0.81 0.0% 0.0% -2.4 +-1 0.59 0.0% 0.7%2005.2-2016.1 2.1 +-1.5 0.64 1.1% 0.0% 4.2 +-1.1 0.8 0.0% 0.0% -2 +-1 0.61 0.1% 0.1%2006.1-2016.1 2.4 +-1.6 0.65 0.6% 0.0% 4.3 +-1.2 0.8 0.0% 0.1% -1.8 +-1.1 0.53 0.3% 0.3%2006.2-2016.1 2.9 +-1.7 0.69 0.2% 0.0% 4.5 +-1.3 0.8 0.0% 0.1% -1.6 +-1.2 0.53 1.1% 0.3%2007.1-2016.1 3.3 +-1.8 0.72 0.1% 0.0% 4.5 +-1.4 0.79 0.0% 0.1% -1.2 +-1.2 0.44 5.1% 0.5%2007.2-2016.1 4.2 +-1.7 0.81 0.0% 0.0% 4.9 +-1.5 0.8 0.0% 0.1% -0.7 +-1.2 0.52 20.9% 0.1%2008.1-2016.1 4.6 +-1.8 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 5 +-1.7 0.79 0.0% 0.1% -0.3 +-1.2 0.45 58.5% 0.2%2008.2-2016.1 4.4 +-2 0.79 0.0% 0.0% 5.2 +-2 0.77 0.0% 0.2% -0.8 +-1.1 0.52 13.9% 0.3%2009.1-2016.1 3.3 +-1.7 0.88 0.1% 0.0% 4.6 +-2.1 0.79 0.0% 0.1% -1.2 +-1.2 0.61 4.4% 0.1%2009.2-2016.1 3.1 +-2.1 0.85 0.7% 0.0% 4.5 +-2.5 0.73 0.2% 0.2% -1.4 +-1.4 0.61 5.4% 0.3%2010.1-2016.1 3.6 +-2.5 0.86 0.8% 0.0% 5.2 +-2.9 0.75 0.2% 0.5% -1.6 +-1.7 0.56 7.2% 0.5%2010.2-2016.1 3.6 +-3.1 0.82 2.8% 0.0% 5.4 +-3.7 0.68 0.9% 0.9% -1.7 +-2.2 0.55 10.9% 1.0%2011.1-2016.1 3.6 +-3.1 0.82 2.8% 0.0% 5.4 +-3.7 0.68 0.9% 0.9% -1.7 +-2.2 0.55 10.9% 1.0%2011.2-2016.1 3.7 +-4 0.78 6.1% 0.1% 6.1 +-4.6 0.65 1.4% 1.2% -2.3 +-2.6 0.59 7.5% 2.6%2012.1-2016.1 4.3 +-5.1 0.78 8.0% 0.2% 6.5 +-5.9 0.64 3.3% 2.6% -2 +-3.3 0.43 18.2% 5.2%2012.2-2016.1 6.2 +-6.2 0.82 4.5% 0.3% 8.2 +-7.7 0.64 3.6% 2.6% -1.8 +-4.6 0.41 35.6% 8.6%2013.1-2016.1 6.3 +-8.9 0.8 11.6% 0.9% 8.5 +-11.2 0.62 9.2% 6.0% -2.1 +-6.6 0.27 43.6% 13.5%2013.2-2016.1 5.1 +-15.2 0.68 35.5% 3.8% 6.6 +-18.5 0.28 32.6% 15.8% -1.4 +-11.5 0.21 72.0% 21.0%









Seasonality

2002.1-2016.1 -2.6 +-1.9 0.27 1.1% 5.3% 1.1 +-1.4 0.11 10.8% 11.4% -3.7 +-0.7 0.79 0.0% 3.7%2002.2-2016.1 -1.9 +-1.9 0.28 5.1% 1.5% 1.6 +-1.4 0.22 2.6% 4.2% -3.5 +-0.8 0.79 0.0% 1.4%2003.1-2016.1 -1.1 +-1.8 0.19 20.2% 2.2% 2.2 +-1.3 0.34 0.3% 7.0% -3.2 +-0.7 0.77 0.0% 2.3%2003.2-2016.1 -0.2 +-1.5 0.35 80.0% 0.1% 2.8 +-1.2 0.52 0.0% 1.0% -2.9 +-0.7 0.79 0.0% 0.3%2004.1-2016.1 0.3 +-1.5 0.34 65.7% 0.1% 3.3 +-1.1 0.66 0.0% 1.3% -2.9 +-0.7 0.76 0.0% 0.3%2004.2-2016.1 0.8 +-1.5 0.41 30.9% 0.0% 3.7 +-1.1 0.72 0.0% 0.3% -2.9 +-0.8 0.75 0.0% 0.4%2005.1-2016.1 1.2 +-1.6 0.43 12.2% 0.1% 4 +-1.2 0.73 0.0% 0.6% -2.6 +-0.8 0.71 0.0% 0.7%2005.2-2016.1 1.8 +-1.6 0.53 3.0% 0.0% 4.2 +-1.3 0.72 0.0% 0.5% -2.3 +-0.8 0.72 0.0% 0.1%2006.1-2016.1 2.2 +-1.7 0.55 1.6% 0.0% 4.4 +-1.4 0.72 0.0% 0.8% -2.1 +-0.9 0.67 0.0% 0.2%2006.2-2016.1 2.6 +-1.9 0.57 0.9% 0.0% 4.7 +-1.6 0.72 0.0% 0.6% -2 +-1 0.65 0.1% 0.3%2007.1-2016.1 3.1 +-2 0.61 0.4% 0.0% 4.7 +-1.7 0.7 0.0% 0.9% -1.6 +-1 0.6 0.3% 0.3%2007.2-2016.1 4.1 +-2 0.71 0.1% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.9 0.71 0.0% 0.4% -1.2 +-1 0.63 2.4% 0.1%2008.1-2016.1 4.7 +-2.2 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 +-2.2 0.71 0.0% 0.8% -0.9 +-1.1 0.56 10.3% 0.1%2008.2-2016.1 4.7 +-2.2 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 +-2.2 0.71 0.0% 0.8% -0.9 +-1.1 0.56 10.3% 0.1%2009.1-2016.1 3.9 +-2.2 0.79 0.2% 0.0% 5.2 +-2.4 0.69 0.0% 0.7% -1.2 +-1.1 0.66 2.8% 0.0%2009.2-2016.1 3.9 +-2.5 0.74 0.6% 0.0% 5.3 +-2.9 0.63 0.1% 1.1% -1.4 +-1.3 0.66 3.4% 0.1%2010.1-2016.1 4.7 +-2.7 0.78 0.3% 0.0% 6.3 +-3 0.7 0.1% 2.1% -1.5 +-1.5 0.63 4.2% 0.2%2010.2-2016.1 5 +-3.3 0.74 0.7% 0.1% 6.7 +-3.7 0.65 0.2% 2.5% -1.6 +-1.8 0.62 6.7% 0.5%2011.1-2016.1 3.6 +-3.1 0.82 2.8% 0.0% 5.4 +-3.7 0.68 0.9% 0.9% -1.7 +-2.2 0.55 10.9% 1.0%2011.2-2016.1 3.7 +-4 0.78 6.1% 0.1% 6.1 +-4.6 0.65 1.4% 1.2% -2.3 +-2.6 0.59 7.5% 2.6%2012.1-2016.1 4.3 +-5.1 0.78 8.0% 0.2% 6.5 +-5.9 0.64 3.3% 2.6% -2 +-3.3 0.43 18.2% 5.2%2012.2-2016.1 6.2 +-6.2 0.82 4.5% 0.3% 8.2 +-7.7 0.64 3.6% 2.6% -1.8 +-4.6 0.41 35.6% 8.6%2013.1-2016.1 6.3 +-8.9 0.8 11.6% 0.9% 8.5 +-11.2 0.62 9.2% 6.0% -2.1 +-6.6 0.27 43.6% 13.5%2013.2-2016.1 5.1 +-15.2 0.68 35.5% 3.8% 6.6 +-18.5 0.28 32.6% 15.8% -1.4 +-11.5 0.21 72.0% 21.0%






Seasonality

2002.1-2016.1 -2.6 +-2.1 0.25 1.8% 2.9% 1.2 +-1.5 0.13 9.9% 10.1% -3.8 +-0.9 0.75 0.0% 1.1%2002.2-2016.1 -1.9 +-2.1 0.28 7.3% 0.8% 1.7 +-1.5 0.25 2.3% 3.8% -3.6 +-0.9 0.75 0.0% 0.4%2003.1-2016.1 -1.1 +-2 0.19 28.2% 1.4% 2.3 +-1.4 0.37 0.2% 7.1% -3.3 +-0.9 0.71 0.0% 0.7%2003.2-2016.1 -0.1 +-1.7 0.37 92.9% 0.1% 3 +-1.3 0.55 0.0% 1.1% -2.9 +-0.8 0.73 0.0% 0.1%2004.1-2016.1 0.5 +-1.7 0.36 55.5% 0.1% 3.6 +-1.1 0.7 0.0% 1.6% -3 +-0.9 0.7 0.0% 0.1%2004.2-2016.1 1 +-1.7 0.44 24.4% 0.0% 4 +-1.1 0.76 0.0% 0.4% -2.9 +-1 0.69 0.0% 0.1%2005.1-2016.1 1.5 +-1.8 0.46 9.3% 0.1% 4.3 +-1.1 0.78 0.0% 0.7% -2.6 +-1 0.63 0.0% 0.3%2005.2-2016.1 2.1 +-1.8 0.56 2.0% 0.0% 4.5 +-1.2 0.78 0.0% 0.5% -2.2 +-1 0.66 0.0% 0.0%2006.1-2016.1 2.6 +-1.9 0.59 1.0% 0.0% 4.7 +-1.3 0.78 0.0% 1.1% -2 +-1.1 0.6 0.1% 0.1%2006.2-2016.1 3 +-2 0.63 0.4% 0.0% 5 +-1.4 0.78 0.0% 0.7% -1.8 +-1.2 0.6 0.4% 0.1%2007.1-2016.1 3.6 +-2.1 0.67 0.2% 0.0% 5.1 +-1.6 0.78 0.0% 1.3% -1.4 +-1.1 0.53 2.0% 0.1%2007.2-2016.1 4.5 +-1.9 0.77 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 +-1.7 0.79 0.0% 0.7% -1 +-1.1 0.61 8.5% 0.0%2008.1-2016.1 5.2 +-2 0.81 0.0% 0.0% 5.8 +-1.9 0.79 0.0% 1.4% -0.6 +-1.2 0.56 28.0% 0.0%2008.2-2016.1 5 +-2.3 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 6.2 +-2.1 0.78 0.0% 1.2% -1.1 +-1 0.65 3.8% 0.0%2009.1-2016.1 4.2 +-2.3 0.79 0.2% 0.0% 5.9 +-2.4 0.76 0.0% 1.4% -1.6 +-1 0.77 0.4% 0.0%2009.2-2016.1 4.2 +-2.7 0.74 0.6% 0.0% 6 +-2.8 0.71 0.1% 2.0% -1.7 +-1.1 0.78 0.6% 0.0%2010.1-2016.1 5.1 +-2.9 0.79 0.3% 0.1% 7.2 +-2.7 0.82 0.0% 3.1% -2 +-1.3 0.78 0.7% 0.0%2010.2-2016.1 5.4 +-3.5 0.75 0.6% 0.2% 7.7 +-3.1 0.79 0.0% 3.4% -2.1 +-1.5 0.77 1.4% 0.1%2011.1-2016.1 4 +-3.4 0.82 2.6% 0.1% 6.4 +-3.1 0.81 0.2% 1.1% -2.3 +-1.9 0.74 2.5% 0.2%2011.2-2016.1 4.1 +-4.4 0.77 5.9% 0.2% 7.1 +-3.8 0.79 0.3% 1.3% -2.8 +-2.1 0.77 2.0% 0.6%2012.1-2016.1 4.9 +-5.7 0.78 7.5% 0.7% 7.8 +-4.9 0.8 0.8% 3.2% -2.7 +-2.9 0.68 6.2% 1.7%2012.2-2016.1 6.6 +-7.1 0.8 5.6% 0.9% 9.2 +-6.2 0.8 1.3% 3.2% -2.4 +-4 0.67 18.5% 3.4%2013.1-2016.1 6.8 +-11.3 0.78 14.2% 3.1% 9.9 +-9.7 0.78 4.2% 8.2% -2.8 +-6.2 0.6 24.7% 6.7%2013.2-2016.1 5.1 +-22.4 0.56 42.2% 11.9% 6.6 +-12.2 0.6 13.9% 17.6% -1.4 +-11.6 0.64 65.1% 11.3%




Measured Reform Factors with SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 2010

Ending 2016-2Severity


Seasonality T Pval LevelLvl Ch Val:

Level

2004.1-2016.2 3.7 +-2.2 0.87 0.2% 0.6% 2.8% 1.19922004.2-2016.2 4.4 +-2.1 0.89 0.0% 0.1% 4.6% 1.16312005.1-2016.2 4.9 +-2.2 0.9 0.0% 0.3% 7.2% 1.14432005.2-2016.2 5.2 +-2.3 0.89 0.0% 0.2% 9.7% 1.1326

Ending 2016-2 and Excluding 2010-2Severity



Level

2004.1-2016.2 2.8 +-2.1 0.9 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.29662004.2-2016.2 3.5 +-2 0.92 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.25352005.1-2016.2 3.9 +-2.1 0.92 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.23222005.2-2016.2 4.2 +-2.3 0.92 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.2185

Ending 2016-1Severity



Level

2004.1-2016.1 3.6 +-2.4 0.85 0.4% 0.9% 3.3% 1.20332004.2-2016.1 4.5 +-2.3 0.88 0.0% 0.2% 6.4% 1.15942005.1-2016.1 5 +-2.4 0.89 0.0% 0.4% 10.2% 1.13782005.2-2016.1 5.5 +-2.6 0.88 0.0% 0.2% 14.9% 1.1211




Ending 2016-1 and Excluding 2010-2

Severity



Level2004.1-2016.1 2.7 +-2.3 0.88 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.30092004.2-2016.1 3.6 +-2.2 0.91 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 1.25012005.1-2016.1 4 +-2.4 0.91 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.22632005.2-2016.1 4.4 +-2.5 0.91 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 1.2075

Ending 2015-2

Severity



Level2004.1-2015.2 3.1 +-2.5 0.85 1.6% 0.5% 2.0% 1.23012004.2-2015.2 4 +-2.5 0.87 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 1.18342005.1-2015.2 4.5 +-2.6 0.88 0.2% 0.3% 7.3% 1.16012005.2-2015.2 5 +-2.8 0.88 0.1% 0.2% 11.2% 1.1421

Ending 2015-2 and Excluding 2010-2

Severity



Level2004.1-2015.2 2.1 +-2.3 0.89 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.34012004.2-2015.2 3 +-2.3 0.91 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 1.28632005.1-2015.2 3.3 +-2.5 0.91 1.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.26482005.2-2015.2 3.7 +-2.7 0.91 0.9% 0.0% 1.3% 1.2452


Property Damage Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles

Industry Data as of December 31, 2016No Seasonality


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time

2002.1-2012.2 3.3 +-0.9 0.72 0.0% 1.3 +-0.6 0.47 0.0% 2 +-0.9 0.49 0.0%2002.2-2012.2 3.3 +-1 0.7 0.0% 1 +-0.6 0.4 0.1% 2.3 +-0.9 0.58 0.0%2003.1-2012.2 3.6 +-1.1 0.72 0.0% 1.2 +-0.6 0.45 0.1% 2.4 +-1 0.58 0.0%2003.2-2012.2 3.8 +-1.2 0.72 0.0% 1.3 +-0.7 0.48 0.1% 2.5 +-1.1 0.56 0.0%2004.1-2012.2 3.5 +-1.3 0.67 0.0% 1.4 +-0.7 0.47 0.1% 2.1 +-1.1 0.48 0.1%2004.2-2012.2 3.3 +-1.4 0.61 0.0% 1.4 +-0.8 0.45 0.2% 1.9 +-1.2 0.39 0.4%2005.1-2012.2 3.5 +-1.6 0.59 0.0% 1.8 +-0.8 0.6 0.0% 1.7 +-1.3 0.29 1.8%2005.2-2012.2 3.2 +-1.8 0.5 0.2% 1.6 +-0.9 0.52 0.1% 1.5 +-1.5 0.21 5.0%2006.1-2012.2 3.1 +-2.1 0.44 0.6% 2 +-0.9 0.66 0.0% 1.1 +-1.7 0.08 17.1%2006.2-2012.2 2.6 +-2.3 0.31 2.8% 2.1 +-1 0.63 0.1% 0.4 +-1.7 -0.06 57.9%2007.1-2012.2 2.9 +-2.7 0.32 3.3% 2.3 +-1.2 0.6 0.2% 0.7 +-2 -0.04 47.3%2007.2-2012.2 2.3 +-3.1 0.16 11.9% 2 +-1.4 0.49 1.0% 0.3 +-2.4 -0.1 75.6%2008.1-2012.2 3.6 +-3.4 0.37 3.8% 2.8 +-1.3 0.73 0.1% 0.8 +-2.8 -0.07 53.4%2008.2-2012.2 2.4 +-3.8 0.14 17.3% 3 +-1.6 0.7 0.3% -0.6 +-2.8 -0.11 65.4%2009.1-2012.2 2 +-5 0 35.8% 3.4 +-2.1 0.69 0.7% -1.3 +-3.4 -0.02 39.7%2009.2-2012.2 1.4 +-6.9 -0.14 63.1% 3.7 +-2.9 0.64 2.0% -2.2 +-4.4 0.1 25.4%2010.1-2012.2 2.9 +-10.1 -0.08 46.8% 4.3 +-4.1 0.61 4.2% -1.4 +-6.5 -0.15 59.1%

With Seasonality





Seasonality

2002.1-2012.2 3.2 +-0.8 0.81 0.0% 0.6% 1.2 +-0.5 0.62 0.0% 0.8% 2 +-0.9 0.49 0.0% 34.8%2002.2-2012.2 3.3 +-0.9 0.79 0.0% 0.5% 1 +-0.5 0.55 0.0% 1.3% 2.3 +-0.9 0.61 0.0% 14.6%2003.1-2012.2 3.5 +-0.9 0.8 0.0% 1.0% 1.1 +-0.5 0.57 0.0% 2.5% 2.4 +-1 0.6 0.0% 20.0%2003.2-2012.2 3.8 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% 0.4% 1.3 +-0.5 0.64 0.0% 0.9% 2.5 +-1.1 0.58 0.0% 17.3%2004.1-2012.2 3.3 +-0.8 0.88 0.0% 0.0% 1.3 +-0.6 0.63 0.0% 1.5% 2 +-1 0.6 0.0% 3.1%2004.2-2012.2 3.3 +-0.9 0.85 0.0% 0.0% 1.4 +-0.7 0.64 0.0% 1.0% 1.9 +-1.1 0.51 0.2% 5.0%2005.1-2012.2 3.2 +-1 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 1.7 +-0.7 0.72 0.0% 2.0% 1.5 +-1.1 0.5 1.2% 2.0%2005.2-2012.2 3.2 +-1.1 0.8 0.0% 0.1% 1.6 +-0.8 0.65 0.0% 3.4% 1.5 +-1.3 0.43 2.6% 3.0%2006.1-2012.2 2.8 +-1.2 0.81 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.8 0.73 0.0% 6.9% 0.9 +-1.2 0.54 13.8% 0.4%2006.2-2012.2 2.6 +-1.4 0.74 0.2% 0.1% 2.1 +-0.9 0.73 0.0% 4.6% 0.4 +-1.2 0.46 44.3% 0.7%2007.1-2012.2 2.5 +-1.7 0.73 0.9% 0.3% 2.1 +-1.1 0.7 0.1% 6.7% 0.4 +-1.5 0.45 59.0% 1.2%2007.2-2012.2 2.3 +-2.1 0.65 2.9% 0.7% 2 +-1.3 0.59 0.7% 11.0% 0.3 +-1.8 0.38 68.0% 2.2%2008.1-2012.2 3 +-2.4 0.7 2.0% 1.6% 2.6 +-1.3 0.75 0.2% 22.5% 0.4 +-2.3 0.35 70.9% 4.3%2008.2-2012.2 2.4 +-2.8 0.55 8.0% 3.4% 3 +-1.5 0.75 0.3% 15.7% -0.6 +-2.3 0.3 57.8% 6.6%2009.1-2012.2 1 +-2.9 0.71 39.1% 1.1% 3.1 +-2.1 0.71 1.2% 26.2% -2 +-1.3 0.86 1.3% 0.1%2009.2-2012.2 1.4 +-4.1 0.66 40.5% 2.4% 3.7 +-2.7 0.71 1.9% 19.8% -2.2 +-1.9 0.86 3.0% 0.6%2010.1-2012.2 1 +-7.1 0.62 68.7% 6.3% 3.8 +-4.8 0.63 8.1% 33.8% -2.7 +-2.9 0.83 6.1% 1.6%


Property Damage Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles

Industry Data as of December 31, 2016DCPD & Property DamageWith Seasonality





Seasonality

2013.2-2016.2 9.1 +-8.8 0.54 4.0% 81.6% 6.8 +-3 0.87 0.3% 48.5% 2.1 +-9.7 -0.31 57.3% 68.4%2014.1-2016.2 9.1 +-15.4 0.29 14.4% 86.0% 7.4 +-5 0.84 1.6% 74.4% 1.5 +-16.9 -0.6 79.1% 80.9%

With SeasonalityExcluding 2015-1





Seasonality

2013.2-2016.2 9.1 +-1.3 0.99 0.0% 1.3% 6.8 +-3.7 0.87 0.9% 77.0% 2.1 +-4.3 0.31 20.8% 28.0%2014.1-2016.2 9.1 +-2.9 0.98 0.5% 5.7% 7.4 +-7.7 0.82 5.0% 97.2% 1.5 +-8.9 0.15 53.4% 35.0%

No SeasonalityLoss Cost Severity Frequency

Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time2013.2-2016.2 9.1 +-7.3 0.63 2.1% 6.8 +-2.7 0.88 0.1% 2.1 +-8.3 -0.1 53.3%2014.1-2016.2 8.8 +-11.2 0.46 8.4% 7.6 +-3.7 0.87 0.4% 1.1 +-12.3 -0.23 81.2%

No SeasonalityExcluding 2015-1


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time2013.2-2016.2 9.1 +-3.3 0.93 0.1% 6.8 +-2.9 0.9 0.2% 2.1 +-4 0.19 21.5%2014.1-2016.2 9.8 +-5.2 0.91 0.8% 7.5 +-4.5 0.88 1.2% 2.2 +-6.8 0.01 38.0%


Accident Benefits - Disability Income Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Ending 2016-2Without SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 1, 2012 Increased by 43%


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 -0.6 +-2.4 -0.03 62.4% 5.2 +-2.2 0.45 0.0% -5.5 +-0.9 0.83 0.0%2002.2-2016.2 -0.5 +-2.6 -0.03 67.3% 5.2 +-2.4 0.42 0.0% -5.4 +-1 0.81 0.0%2003.1-2016.2 -0.1 +-2.8 -0.04 93.2% 5.3 +-2.6 0.4 0.0% -5.1 +-1 0.79 0.0%2003.2-2016.2 -0.7 +-2.9 -0.03 61.9% 4.7 +-2.6 0.33 0.1% -5.1 +-1.1 0.78 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 -0.6 +-3.1 -0.03 68.3% 4.7 +-2.8 0.3 0.2% -5 +-1.2 0.75 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 -0.2 +-3.3 -0.04 88.4% 5.1 +-3 0.33 0.2% -5.1 +-1.3 0.73 0.0%2005.1-2016.2 0.4 +-3.6 -0.04 81.7% 5.5 +-3.3 0.34 0.2% -4.8 +-1.3 0.7 0.0%2005.2-2016.2 0.8 +-3.9 -0.04 66.1% 5.7 +-3.6 0.33 0.3% -4.6 +-1.4 0.66 0.0%2006.1-2016.2 1.5 +-4.2 -0.02 45.8% 6 +-3.9 0.31 0.4% -4.2 +-1.5 0.61 0.0%2006.2-2016.2 2.2 +-4.6 0 31.2% 6.3 +-4.3 0.31 0.5% -3.9 +-1.6 0.55 0.0%2007.1-2016.2 3.7 +-4.8 0.08 11.9% 7.4 +-4.7 0.37 0.3% -3.5 +-1.7 0.48 0.0%2007.2-2016.2 4 +-5.3 0.08 12.6% 7.3 +-5.2 0.32 0.7% -3.1 +-1.8 0.4 0.2%2008.1-2016.2 4.5 +-6 0.09 11.8% 7.2 +-5.8 0.27 1.5% -2.5 +-1.8 0.29 1.2%2008.2-2016.2 2.6 +-6.1 -0.01 36.4% 5.7 +-6.2 0.16 6.1% -2.9 +-2 0.34 0.8%2009.1-2016.2 1.6 +-6.7 -0.05 61.4% 4.4 +-6.7 0.07 17.1% -2.7 +-2.3 0.26 2.5%2009.2-2016.2 0.5 +-7.5 -0.08 88.7% 3.4 +-7.5 0 34.4% -2.8 +-2.6 0.23 4.2%2010.1-2016.2 -3.2 +-6.6 0 32.3% -0.5 +-6.3 -0.08 85.8% -2.7 +-3 0.16 8.5%2010.2-2016.2 -3 +-7.8 -0.03 42.0% 1.1 +-7.2 -0.08 74.5% -4.1 +-2.9 0.41 1.1%2011.1-2016.2 -4.1 +-9.1 0 34.6% -0.6 +-8.1 -0.1 87.6% -3.6 +-3.4 0.28 4.4%2011.2-2016.2 -3.9 +-11.1 -0.04 45.1% 1.1 +-9.7 -0.1 81.0% -4.9 +-3.4 0.48 1.1%2012.1-2016.2 -1.7 +-13.7 -0.11 78.6% 2.9 +-12 -0.08 58.8% -4.4 +-4.2 0.34 4.5%2012.2-2016.2 -1.6 +-17.7 -0.14 83.5% 2.2 +-15.3 -0.12 73.9% -3.7 +-5.3 0.17 14.6%2013.1-2016.2 6 +-20.9 -0.07 49.4% 7.4 +-19.1 0 36.2% -1.3 +-5.7 -0.11 60.2%2013.2-2016.2 -2.5 +-21.7 -0.18 78.3% -1 +-18.8 -0.2 89.4% -1.5 +-8 -0.15 66.1%2014.1-2016.2 8.7 +-25.4 0 37.5% 5.9 +-26.2 -0.13 54.8% 2.6 +-8.7 -0.06 45.0%

Ending 2016-2With SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 1, 2012 Increased by 43%





Seasonality

2002.1-2016.2 -0.7 +-2.4 0.01 56.4% 17.4% 5.2 +-2.3 0.43 0.0% 80.1% -5.6 +-0.8 0.87 0.0% 0.3%2002.2-2016.2 -0.5 +-2.6 0.01 66.8% 16.9% 5.2 +-2.4 0.4 0.0% 81.9% -5.4 +-0.8 0.86 0.0% 0.2%2003.1-2016.2 -0.2 +-2.7 -0.02 87.2% 22.9% 5.2 +-2.6 0.38 0.0% 85.5% -5.2 +-0.9 0.85 0.0% 0.3%2003.2-2016.2 -0.7 +-2.9 -0.03 61.9% 32.0% 4.7 +-2.7 0.31 0.1% 94.1% -5.1 +-0.9 0.84 0.0% 0.4%2004.1-2016.2 -0.7 +-3.1 -0.04 63.7% 33.7% 4.7 +-2.9 0.27 0.3% 94.3% -5.1 +-1 0.82 0.0% 0.5%2004.2-2016.2 -0.2 +-3.3 -0.03 88.3% 26.9% 5.1 +-3.1 0.3 0.2% 91.5% -5.1 +-1.1 0.8 0.0% 0.6%2005.1-2016.2 0.3 +-3.6 -0.05 87.0% 36.7% 5.5 +-3.4 0.31 0.2% 96.9% -5 +-1.2 0.77 0.0% 1.1%2005.2-2016.2 0.8 +-3.9 -0.03 66.0% 29.9% 5.7 +-3.7 0.29 0.3% 97.2% -4.6 +-1.2 0.76 0.0% 0.5%2006.1-2016.2 1.4 +-4.3 -0.03 50.3% 39.8% 6 +-4.1 0.27 0.5% 97.5% -4.3 +-1.3 0.71 0.0% 1.1%2006.2-2016.2 2.2 +-4.6 0.01 31.0% 29.2% 6.3 +-4.5 0.27 0.7% 94.2% -3.9 +-1.2 0.72 0.0% 0.2%2007.1-2016.2 3.5 +-4.9 0.06 14.1% 46.1% 7.4 +-4.8 0.33 0.4% 82.8% -3.7 +-1.4 0.66 0.0% 0.5%2007.2-2016.2 4 +-5.4 0.06 13.1% 41.8% 7.3 +-5.4 0.28 0.9% 80.9% -3.1 +-1.3 0.7 0.0% 0.1%2008.1-2016.2 4.4 +-6.1 0.06 14.2% 49.2% 7.3 +-6.1 0.23 1.8% 82.3% -2.7 +-1.4 0.62 0.1% 0.1%2008.2-2016.2 2.6 +-6.3 -0.07 37.9% 70.9% 5.7 +-6.4 0.12 6.8% 60.3% -2.9 +-1.5 0.63 0.1% 0.3%2009.1-2016.2 1.4 +-7 -0.1 67.0% 55.8% 4.5 +-7 0 17.9% 77.6% -3 +-1.7 0.58 0.3% 0.4%2009.2-2016.2 0.5 +-7.8 -0.15 89.1% 67.7% 3.4 +-7.8 -0.07 36.0% 65.0% -2.8 +-2 0.57 1.0% 0.5%2010.1-2016.2 -3.7 +-6.4 0.08 24.1% 18.6% -0.6 +-6.7 -0.17 84.3% 82.4% -3.1 +-2.2 0.56 1.2% 0.6%2010.2-2016.2 -3 +-7.5 0.06 40.1% 18.2% 1.1 +-7.5 -0.16 75.4% 61.6% -4.1 +-2.1 0.69 0.2% 0.8%2011.1-2016.2 -5 +-8.4 0.16 21.9% 11.9% -1 +-8.4 -0.13 78.5% 41.2% -4 +-2.6 0.6 0.7% 1.5%2011.2-2016.2 -3.9 +-10.2 0.15 40.8% 12.0% 1.1 +-9.7 -0.07 80.8% 29.2% -4.9 +-2.7 0.7 0.3% 2.6%2012.1-2016.2 -3.1 +-13.2 0.02 60.2% 19.2% 2.1 +-12.5 -0.11 70.5% 40.7% -5 +-3.4 0.59 1.1% 4.4%2012.2-2016.2 -1.6 +-17.1 0.01 82.4% 20.5% 2.2 +-16.2 -0.19 74.7% 45.8% -3.7 +-3.6 0.64 4.7% 1.9%2013.1-2016.2 4.3 +-22.5 -0.1 63.7% 40.6% 6.7 +-22.1 -0.17 45.5% 72.3% -2.3 +-4.2 0.46 23.2% 4.2%2013.2-2016.2 -2.5 +-25.5 -0.39 80.2% 63.9% -1 +-22.8 -0.49 90.6% 91.6% -1.5 +-5.8 0.48 52.7% 5.6%2014.1-2016.2 9.4 +-35.4 -0.31 43.5% 83.6% 8.2 +-34.3 -0.28 48.0% 51.6% 1.1 +-7.5 0.43 66.8% 12.4%


Accident Benefits - Disability Income Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Measured Reform Factors without SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 1, 2012


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time T Pval LevelLvl Ch Val:

Level Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time T Pval LevelLvl Ch Val:


Level

2002.1-2016.2 -1.9 +-4.2 0.24 35.9% 1.6% 1.6738 5.5 +-4 0.68 0.7% 7.3% 1.3824 -7.1 +-1.5 0.86 0.0% 1.4% 1.21082002.2-2016.2 -2 +-4.6 0.23 38.8% 2.0% 1.6791 5.5 +-4.3 0.67 1.3% 8.3% 1.3876 -7.1 +-1.6 0.84 0.0% 1.9% 1.21012003.1-2016.2 -1.2 +-5.1 0.24 62.0% 3.8% 1.6077 5.7 +-4.8 0.66 1.8% 11.2% 1.3697 -6.6 +-1.7 0.82 0.0% 4.6% 1.17372003.2-2016.2 -2.7 +-5.3 0.25 31.1% 1.8% 1.7418 4.4 +-5 0.63 7.6% 5.9% 1.4656 -6.8 +-1.8 0.81 0.0% 4.0% 1.18852004.1-2016.2 -2.7 +-5.8 0.25 34.6% 2.4% 1.7487 4.4 +-5.5 0.62 11.0% 7.2% 1.4688 -6.8 +-2 0.78 0.0% 5.0% 1.19062004.2-2016.2 -2.1 +-6.5 0.25 50.6% 4.1% 1.694 5.4 +-6.1 0.63 7.1% 13.0% 1.3946 -7.2 +-2.2 0.77 0.0% 3.7% 1.21472005.1-2016.2 -0.9 +-7.2 0.27 80.2% 8.0% 1.5918 6.4 +-6.8 0.63 5.6% 20.8% 1.3337 -6.8 +-2.5 0.73 0.0% 6.8% 1.19352005.2-2016.2 0 +-8.1 0.28 99.3% 12.7% 1.5296 7.1 +-7.6 0.62 5.8% 28.6% 1.2935 -6.7 +-2.8 0.69 0.0% 10.1% 1.18262006.1-2016.2 1.5 +-9 0.3 72.4% 21.7% 1.4273 7.8 +-8.6 0.61 6.2% 37.2% 1.2553 -5.8 +-3 0.62 0.1% 20.9% 1.1372006.2-2016.2 3.4 +-10.1 0.33 48.7% 34.6% 1.3241 9.1 +-9.7 0.6 5.4% 50.5% 1.1955 -5.2 +-3.3 0.55 0.4% 33.4% 1.10762007.1-2016.2 7 +-10.8 0.43 17.3% 62.3% 1.1528 12.1 +-10.5 0.65 1.9% 79.6% 1.0714 -4.5 +-3.6 0.47 2.0% 50.2% 1.0762007.2-2016.2 8.3 +-12.3 0.43 15.3% 74.6% 1.1039 12.5 +-11.9 0.62 3.1% 84.0% 1.059 -3.7 +-4 0.36 7.0% 71.0% 1.04252008.1-2016.2 10.2 +-13.8 0.43 11.9% 89.5% 1.0429 12.9 +-13.4 0.58 4.5% 88.4% 1.0449 -2.4 +-4.2 0.24 23.5% 98.6% 0.99812008.2-2016.2 6.7 +-14 0.33 30.6% 66.6% 1.1465 10.3 +-14.1 0.5 12.2% 71.3% 1.1203 -3.3 +-4.4 0.29 14.2% 83.5% 1.02332009.1-2016.2 5.1 +-15 0.24 46.7% 59.9% 1.1887 8.3 +-15 0.42 23.5% 62.0% 1.1704 -3 +-4.9 0.21 22.2% 89.4% 1.01562009.2-2016.2 3.6 +-16 0.15 62.8% 56.2% 1.2167 6.9 +-16 0.32 35.2% 58.5% 1.196 -3.1 +-5.4 0.16 24.8% 88.8% 1.01732010.1-2016.2 -0.5 +-13.1 -0.02 94.1% 44.9% 1.2352 2.6 +-12.6 0.18 65.5% 45.3% 1.2147 -3 +-5.9 0.09 30.0% 89.5% 1.01692010.2-2016.2 -0.4 +-14.2 -0.05 95.4% 47.0% 1.2371 3.7 +-13.1 0.25 53.1% 40.4% 1.2438 -4 +-5.1 0.35 12.3% 96.1% 0.99472011.1-2016.2 -0.9 +-14.8 -0.16 89.3% 60.2% 1.1762 3 +-13.1 0.04 61.4% 57.4% 1.1604 -3.8 +-5.4 0.2 15.6% 90.7% 1.01362011.2-2016.2 -0.9 +-16 -0.23 89.6% 73.6% 1.1328 3 +-14 0.02 62.5% 49.6% 1.2396 -3.9 +-4.7 0.46 10.3% 43.5% 0.91392012.1-2016.2 -1.6 +-17.7 -0.24 83.5% 61.6% 1.462 2.2 +-15.3 -0.05 73.9% 42.5% 1.6647 -3.7 +-5.3 0.28 14.6% 58.0% 0.8782

Measured Reform Factors without SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 1, 2012Excluding 2010-1


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2 T Pval Time T Pval LevelLvl Ch Val:



Level

2002.1-2016.2 -2.4 +-4.4 0.26 27.2% 1.1% 1.7614 4.6 +-3.8 0.72 1.8% 2.1% 1.5191 -6.7 +-1.4 0.87 0.0% 4.7% 1.15952002.2-2016.2 -2.5 +-4.8 0.25 29.8% 1.5% 1.7706 4.5 +-4.2 0.7 3.4% 2.6% 1.5302 -6.7 +-1.6 0.86 0.0% 6.1% 1.15712003.1-2016.2 -1.8 +-5.2 0.26 49.8% 2.8% 1.695 4.6 +-4.6 0.69 4.4% 3.7% 1.5147 -6.1 +-1.6 0.84 0.0% 13.6% 1.119

2003.2-2016.2 -3.2 +-5.4 0.28 23.5% 1.3% 1.8456 3.3 +-4.8 0.68 16.4% 1.6% 1.6306 -6.3 +-1.8 0.83 0.0% 11.8% 1.13192004.1-2016.2 -3.3 +-6 0.27 26.6% 1.7% 1.8563 3.2 +-5.3 0.67 22.0% 2.1% 1.6394 -6.3 +-1.9 0.81 0.0% 13.7% 1.13232004.2-2016.2 -2.8 +-6.7 0.27 40.5% 3.0% 1.7994 4.2 +-5.8 0.68 14.1% 4.3% 1.5586 -6.7 +-2.1 0.81 0.0% 10.1% 1.15452005.1-2016.2 -1.5 +-7.4 0.29 67.3% 6.0% 1.6906 5.1 +-6.5 0.68 10.6% 7.8% 1.4924 -6.3 +-2.3 0.77 0.0% 16.9% 1.13282005.2-2016.2 -0.7 +-8.3 0.3 86.4% 9.7% 1.625 5.8 +-7.2 0.67 10.1% 12.1% 1.4486 -6.1 +-2.6 0.73 0.0% 22.9% 1.12182006.1-2016.2 0.9 +-9.2 0.33 84.4% 16.8% 1.5163 6.5 +-8.1 0.66 10.0% 17.6% 1.4056 -5.3 +-2.8 0.69 0.1% 42.1% 1.07872006.2-2016.2 2.7 +-10.3 0.36 58.2% 27.3% 1.4067 7.8 +-9.1 0.66 7.8% 26.8% 1.3367 -4.7 +-3 0.63 0.5% 60.0% 1.05232007.1-2016.2 6.4 +-10.9 0.46 21.9% 49.3% 1.2269 10.9 +-9.7 0.72 2.3% 47.8% 1.1965 -4.1 +-3.3 0.56 2.2% 80.2% 1.02542007.2-2016.2 7.8 +-12.3 0.46 18.3% 61.1% 1.1722 11.5 +-10.9 0.69 3.1% 54.9% 1.1742 -3.4 +-3.6 0.48 7.3% 98.7% 0.99832008.1-2016.2 9.8 +-13.8 0.47 13.2% 75.8% 1.1046 12.3 +-12.3 0.67 3.9% 62.8% 1.1471 -2.2 +-3.8 0.38 22.9% 70.5% 0.9632008.2-2016.2 6.7 +-14.1 0.37 31.2% 58.2% 1.1943 10.2 +-13.1 0.6 10.0% 52.0% 1.206 -3.3 +-3.9 0.47 9.6% 92.0% 0.99032009.1-2016.2 5.4 +-15.5 0.27 45.0% 54.8% 1.2242 8.9 +-14.3 0.52 18.3% 48.2% 1.2373 -3.2 +-4.3 0.4 13.6% 91.7% 0.98942009.2-2016.2 4.2 +-16.8 0.16 58.9% 53.7% 1.2414 8.1 +-15.7 0.43 26.2% 48.4% 1.2478 -3.7 +-4.7 0.39 12.0% 96.1% 0.99492010.1-2016.2 -0.4 +-14.2 -0.05 95.4% 47.0% 1.2371 3.7 +-13.1 0.25 53.1% 40.4% 1.2438 -4 +-5.1 0.35 12.3% 96.1% 0.99472010.2-2016.2 -0.4 +-14.2 -0.05 95.4% 47.0% 1.2371 3.7 +-13.1 0.25 53.1% 40.4% 1.2438 -4 +-5.1 0.35 12.3% 96.1% 0.99472011.1-2016.2 -0.9 +-14.8 -0.16 89.3% 60.2% 1.1762 3 +-13.1 0.04 61.4% 57.4% 1.1604 -3.8 +-5.4 0.2 15.6% 90.7% 1.01362011.2-2016.2 -0.9 +-16 -0.23 89.6% 73.6% 1.1328 3 +-14 0.02 62.5% 49.6% 1.2396 -3.9 +-4.7 0.46 10.3% 43.5% 0.91392012.1-2016.2 -1.6 +-17.7 -0.24 83.5% 61.6% 1.462 2.2 +-15.3 -0.05 73.9% 42.5% 1.6647 -3.7 +-5.3 0.28 14.6% 58.0% 0.8782


Accident Benefits - Medical/Rehabilitation Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


With SeasonaltyWith Losses prior to April 1, 2010 Increased by 24%, andWith Losses prior to April 1, 2012 Increased by 15%


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonality Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2

T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

y Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

y

2002.1-2016.2 -1.4 +-1.3 0.22 4.0% 2.1% 0 +-0.8 0.01 97.0% 14.9% -1.4 +-1.1 0.19 1.9% 9.6%2002.2-2016.2 -1 +-1.3 0.24 13.2% 0.7% 0.1 +-0.9 0.01 86.3% 14.1% -1.1 +-1.2 0.18 6.9% 4.3%2003.1-2016.2 -0.6 +-1.3 0.17 33.4% 1.4% 0 +-1 0.02 99.6% 13.1% -0.6 +-1.1 0.08 24.9% 8.3%2003.2-2016.2 -0.3 +-1.4 0.21 65.8% 0.7% -0.2 +-1 0 74.7% 19.0% -0.1 +-1 0.17 77.9% 1.3%2004.1-2016.2 -0.3 +-1.5 0.19 71.8% 1.0% -0.4 +-1.1 0.04 47.2% 12.5% 0.1 +-1.1 0.14 82.5% 2.5%2004.2-2016.2 0.1 +-1.6 0.24 93.0% 0.6% -0.3 +-1.1 0.04 63.2% 11.2% 0.3 +-1.1 0.18 53.1% 1.5%2005.1-2016.2 0.9 +-1.3 0.3 17.0% 0.7% 0.3 +-1 0 56.3% 22.2% 0.6 +-1.2 0.18 28.0% 2.9%2005.2-2016.2 1.2 +-1.4 0.35 8.4% 0.4% 0.3 +-1.1 -0.02 64.2% 25.7% 1 +-1.2 0.28 10.4% 1.2%2006.1-2016.2 1.5 +-1.5 0.37 5.0% 0.8% 0.2 +-1.2 -0.02 73.3% 26.0% 1.3 +-1.2 0.32 4.0% 2.4%2006.2-2016.2 2 +-1.5 0.48 1.1% 0.2% 0.3 +-1.4 -0.01 59.7% 22.9% 1.7 +-1.3 0.42 1.2% 1.0%2007.1-2016.2 2.3 +-1.6 0.5 0.9% 0.5% 0.3 +-1.5 -0.01 72.7% 22.4% 2 +-1.3 0.47 0.5% 2.0%2007.2-2016.2 2.6 +-1.8 0.52 0.6% 0.3% -0.1 +-1.6 -0.06 88.4% 34.2% 2.7 +-1.1 0.71 0.0% 0.1%2008.1-2016.2 3.1 +-1.9 0.56 0.3% 0.8% -0.2 +-1.8 -0.06 78.7% 32.8% 3.3 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% 0.0%2008.2-2016.2 2.9 +-2.1 0.48 1.0% 1.3% -0.5 +-2 -0.07 62.9% 42.4% 3.4 +-1 0.81 0.0% 0.1%2009.1-2016.2 2.5 +-2.4 0.47 3.8% 1.2% -0.7 +-2.3 -0.06 52.6% 38.1% 3.2 +-1.2 0.8 0.0% 0.1%2009.2-2016.2 2.5 +-2.7 0.39 7.2% 2.0% -0.9 +-2.6 -0.07 47.3% 46.4% 3.4 +-1.3 0.77 0.0% 0.2%2010.1-2016.2 2.3 +-3.2 0.38 13.8% 2.8% -1.2 +-3 -0.05 39.9% 41.3% 3.6 +-1.5 0.77 0.0% 0.4%2010.2-2016.2 3 +-3.7 0.42 9.0% 2.3% -0.5 +-3.4 -0.06 73.0% 30.8% 3.6 +-1.8 0.71 0.1% 0.7%2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-4.4 0.41 19.8% 3.0% -1.3 +-3.9 0 47.0% 22.7% 4 +-2.1 0.73 0.2% 1.7%2011.2-2016.2 3.2 +-5.3 0.38 20.1% 3.8% -1.1 +-4.8 -0.02 59.8% 25.4% 4.4 +-2.5 0.7 0.4% 2.0%2012.1-2016.2 3.7 +-6.8 0.37 22.8% 7.5% -1.5 +-6.1 -0.06 58.6% 28.0% 5.3 +-2.8 0.76 0.3% 4.6%2012.2-2016.2 4.9 +-8.6 0.36 20.0% 7.8% -0.7 +-7.7 -0.07 83.9% 27.2% 5.6 +-3.6 0.7 0.8% 6.0%2013.1-2016.2 7.4 +-11.3 0.42 14.0% 17.4% 2.4 +-9.4 -0.14 54.2% 53.3% 5 +-4.9 0.66 4.4% 7.3%

Measured Reform Factors With SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 1, 2010No Adjustment for the April 2012 Reforms



T Pval Seasonality

T Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2

T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level

2002.1-2016.2 -2.7 +-2.9 0.45 7.0% 0.1% 2.9% 1.6051 0.5 +-1.9 0.72 60.9% 0.1% 16.8% 1.3387 -3.2 +-2.2 0.25 0.8% 8.0% 7.4% 1.1992002.2-2016.2 -1.9 +-3 0.5 21.5% 0.3% 1.4% 1.5307 0.7 +-2 0.72 48.1% 0.2% 14.5% 1.322 -2.5 +-2.3 0.22 3.5% 15.1% 4.0% 1.15782003.1-2016.2 -1.1 +-3.2 0.52 47.6% 0.6% 2.6% 1.4695 0.6 +-2.2 0.71 56.0% 0.3% 15.1% 1.327 -1.7 +-2.3 0.09 14.5% 29.4% 7.7% 1.10742003.2-2016.2 -0.3 +-3.3 0.56 83.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4126 0.4 +-2.3 0.69 75.4% 0.3% 20.1% 1.3446 -0.7 +-2.2 0.15 52.1% 56.2% 1.4% 1.05062004.1-2016.2 -0.2 +-3.6 0.56 90.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4039 0 +-2.5 0.68 98.9% 0.2% 15.4% 1.3681 -0.2 +-2.3 0.1 86.8% 76.1% 2.7% 1.02622004.2-2016.2 0.6 +-3.7 0.59 76.2% 3.0% 1.2% 1.3596 0.3 +-2.6 0.68 81.4% 0.4% 12.7% 1.3497 0.3 +-2.4 0.14 82.9% 93.2% 1.8% 1.00732005.1-2016.2 2.3 +-3.2 0.74 15.0% 3.5% 1.6% 1.2734 1.5 +-2.3 0.8 18.1% 0.3% 25.2% 1.2897 0.8 +-2.5 0.14 52.1% 88.1% 3.4% 0.98742005.2-2016.2 3 +-3.3 0.76 6.9% 4.8% 0.8% 1.2462 1.6 +-2.4 0.79 18.7% 0.5% 25.3% 1.2863 1.4 +-2.5 0.25 26.0% 69.7% 1.4% 0.96882006.1-2016.2 3.6 +-3.3 0.78 3.6% 6.1% 1.6% 1.2269 1.6 +-2.6 0.77 19.7% 0.6% 29.7% 1.2839 1.9 +-2.5 0.29 12.7% 56.6% 2.8% 0.95562006.2-2016.2 4.4 +-3.1 0.83 0.8% 5.1% 0.4% 1.212 2 +-2.7 0.78 13.9% 0.8% 22.2% 1.2777 2.4 +-2.4 0.4 5.5% 48.2% 1.1% 0.94862007.1-2016.2 4.8 +-3.2 0.84 0.5% 5.2% 0.8% 1.2094 2 +-2.8 0.76 15.7% 1.0% 25.7% 1.2776 2.7 +-2.4 0.46 2.8% 45.1% 2.3% 0.94662007.2-2016.2 5.1 +-3.1 0.84 0.3% 4.0% 0.4% 1.2182 1.8 +-2.9 0.71 21.0% 1.2% 35.3% 1.2724 3.3 +-1.9 0.71 0.2% 42.4% 0.1% 0.95742008.1-2016.2 5.5 +-3 0.87 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 1.2386 1.8 +-3.1 0.68 22.9% 1.6% 39.0% 1.2731 3.6 +-1.5 0.83 0.0% 52.1% 0.1% 0.97292008.2-2016.2 5.5 +-3.2 0.83 0.2% 3.3% 1.3% 1.2354 1.8 +-3.2 0.6 25.6% 2.5% 45.1% 1.2663 3.7 +-1.6 0.8 0.0% 58.7% 0.1% 0.97562009.1-2016.2 5.4 +-3.3 0.8 0.3% 7.2% 1.4% 1.2109 1.7 +-3.4 0.51 28.1% 4.6% 45.7% 1.2583 3.6 +-1.6 0.79 0.0% 43.8% 0.1% 0.96242009.2-2016.2 5.4 +-3.5 0.71 0.5% 16.0% 2.5% 1.1983 1.8 +-3.6 0.31 30.0% 12.0% 52.3% 1.241 3.6 +-1.7 0.75 0.0% 56.7% 0.3% 0.96562010.1-2016.2 5.7 +-3.6 0.65 0.5% 99.9% 2.3% 1.0002 2 +-3.7 0.01 25.1% 97.0% 37.8% 1.0103 3.6 +-1.8 0.75 0.1% 93.9% 0.7% 0.992010.2-2016.2 5.7 +-3.6 0.6 0.5% NA 2.3% NA 2 +-3.7 0.03 25.1% NA 37.8% NA 3.6 +-1.8 0.71 0.1% NA 0.7% NA2011.1-2016.2 5.1 +-4.3 0.58 2.3% NA 2.5% NA 1 +-4.2 0 60.5% NA 24.7% NA 4 +-2.1 0.73 0.2% NA 1.7% NA2011.2-2016.2 5 +-5.3 0.48 5.3% NA 4.0% NA 0.7 +-5.1 -0.09 77.4% NA 32.8% NA 4.4 +-2.5 0.7 0.4% NA 2.0% NA2012.1-2016.2 4.5 +-6.7 0.46 14.7% NA 5.5% NA -0.8 +-6 -0.02 77.3% NA 22.1% NA 5.3 +-2.8 0.76 0.3% NA 4.6% NA2012.2-2016.2 4.9 +-8.6 0.36 20.0% NA 7.8% NA -0.7 +-7.7 -0.07 83.9% NA 27.2% NA 5.6 +-3.6 0.7 0.8% NA 6.0% NA2013.1-2016.2 7.4 +-11.3 0.42 14.0% NA 17.4% NA 2.4 +-9.4 -0.14 54.2% NA 53.3% NA 5 +-4.9 0.66 4.4% NA 7.3% NA


Accident Benefits - Medical/Rehabilitation Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Measured Reform Factors With SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 1, 2010With Losses prior to April 1, 2012 Increased by 15%



T Pval Seasonality

T Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level

2002.1-2016.2 -3.6 +-2.5 0.41 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 1.5514 -0.4 +-1.8 0.57 63.9% 14.6% 0.2% 1.294 -3.2 +-2.2 0.25 0.8% 7.4% 8.0% 1.1992002.2-2016.2 -2.8 +-2.6 0.45 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4893 -0.3 +-1.9 0.56 74.8% 14.4% 0.4% 1.2863 -2.5 +-2.3 0.22 3.5% 4.0% 15.1% 1.15782003.1-2016.2 -2.2 +-2.8 0.45 11.2% 1.2% 0.3% 1.4401 -0.5 +-2.1 0.56 61.7% 12.7% 0.4% 1.3004 -1.7 +-2.3 0.09 14.5% 7.7% 29.4% 1.10742003.2-2016.2 -1.6 +-2.9 0.48 27.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3944 -0.9 +-2.2 0.54 39.2% 18.9% 0.2% 1.3273 -0.7 +-2.2 0.15 52.1% 1.4% 56.2% 1.05062004.1-2016.2 -1.6 +-3.1 0.48 29.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3964 -1.4 +-2.2 0.55 19.6% 11.1% 0.1% 1.3608 -0.2 +-2.3 0.1 86.8% 2.7% 76.1% 1.02622004.2-2016.2 -1 +-3.3 0.51 52.0% 0.6% 1.6% 1.3619 -1.3 +-2.4 0.55 27.8% 10.8% 0.2% 1.352 0.3 +-2.4 0.14 82.9% 1.8% 93.2% 1.00732005.1-2016.2 0.5 +-2.8 0.66 73.2% 0.7% 1.7% 1.2844 -0.3 +-2.2 0.67 77.5% 21.2% 0.2% 1.3008 0.8 +-2.5 0.14 52.1% 3.4% 88.1% 0.98742005.2-2016.2 1 +-2.9 0.68 49.3% 0.4% 2.4% 1.2638 -0.4 +-2.3 0.65 73.1% 25.2% 0.2% 1.3045 1.4 +-2.5 0.25 26.0% 1.4% 69.7% 0.96882006.1-2016.2 1.4 +-3.1 0.7 34.9% 0.9% 3.1% 1.2499 -0.5 +-2.5 0.63 68.6% 24.9% 0.3% 1.3079 1.9 +-2.5 0.29 12.7% 2.8% 56.6% 0.95562006.2-2016.2 2 +-2.9 0.75 15.8% 0.3% 2.8% 1.2374 -0.3 +-2.6 0.63 80.1% 22.3% 0.4% 1.3044 2.4 +-2.4 0.4 5.5% 1.1% 48.2% 0.94862007.1-2016.2 2.3 +-3.1 0.76 12.4% 0.6% 3.1% 1.2355 -0.4 +-2.7 0.6 75.2% 21.9% 0.5% 1.3052 2.7 +-2.4 0.46 2.8% 2.3% 45.1% 0.94662007.2-2016.2 2.6 +-3.1 0.75 9.4% 0.4% 2.8% 1.2423 -0.7 +-2.7 0.53 60.2% 33.2% 0.6% 1.2976 3.3 +-1.9 0.71 0.2% 0.1% 42.4% 0.95742008.1-2016.2 2.9 +-3.1 0.77 6.5% 0.9% 2.0% 1.2589 -0.7 +-2.9 0.49 58.8% 32.9% 0.8% 1.2939 3.6 +-1.5 0.83 0.0% 0.1% 52.1% 0.97292008.2-2016.2 2.8 +-3.3 0.7 8.0% 1.6% 3.3% 1.2494 -0.8 +-3 0.38 57.0% 41.6% 1.6% 1.2806 3.7 +-1.6 0.8 0.0% 0.1% 58.7% 0.97562009.1-2016.2 2.7 +-3.3 0.66 9.5% 1.6% 7.6% 1.2164 -0.9 +-3.1 0.28 56.7% 39.4% 3.4% 1.2639 3.6 +-1.6 0.79 0.0% 0.1% 43.8% 0.96242009.2-2016.2 2.8 +-3.5 0.51 10.8% 2.7% 18.1% 1.1948 -0.8 +-3.3 0.05 58.8% 47.7% 10.6% 1.2373 3.6 +-1.7 0.75 0.0% 0.3% 56.7% 0.96562010.1-2016.2 3 +-3.7 0.44 9.0% 2.3% 90.8% 0.9698 -0.5 +-3.4 -0.15 73.0% 30.8% 93.5% 0.9796 3.6 +-1.8 0.75 0.1% 0.7% 93.9% 0.992010.2-2016.2 3 +-3.7 0.42 9.0% 2.3% NA NA -0.5 +-3.4 -0.06 73.0% 30.8% NA NA 3.6 +-1.8 0.71 0.1% 0.7% NA NA2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-4.4 0.41 19.8% 3.0% NA NA -1.3 +-3.9 0 47.0% 22.7% NA NA 4 +-2.1 0.73 0.2% 1.7% NA NA2011.2-2016.2 3.2 +-5.3 0.38 20.1% 3.8% NA NA -1.1 +-4.8 -0.02 59.8% 25.4% NA NA 4.4 +-2.5 0.7 0.4% 2.0% NA NA2012.1-2016.2 3.7 +-6.8 0.37 22.8% 7.5% NA NA -1.5 +-6.1 -0.06 58.6% 28.0% NA NA 5.3 +-2.8 0.76 0.3% 4.6% NA NA2012.2-2016.2 4.9 +-8.6 0.36 20.0% 7.8% NA NA -0.7 +-7.7 -0.07 83.9% 27.2% NA NA 5.6 +-3.6 0.7 0.8% 6.0% NA NA2013.1-2016.2 7.4 +-11.3 0.42 14.0% 17.4% NA NA 2.4 +-9.4 -0.14 54.2% 53.3% NA NA 5 +-4.9 0.66 4.4% 7.3% NA NA


Accident Benefits - Funeral Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Ending 2016-2No SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 1, 2012 Increased by 150%


Date Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2

T Pval Time Trend Conf. Int. Adj. R2

T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 -9.1 +-2.9 0.55 0.0% -4.6 +-2 0.42 0.0% -4.7 +-2.7 0.28 0.2%2002.2-2016.2 -9.7 +-3 0.58 0.0% -4.7 +-2.1 0.4 0.0% -5.3 +-2.8 0.33 0.1%2003.1-2016.2 -9.8 +-3.2 0.56 0.0% -5.1 +-2.2 0.44 0.0% -5 +-3 0.28 0.2%2003.2-2016.2 -10.7 +-3.3 0.6 0.0% -5.4 +-2.3 0.44 0.0% -5.6 +-3.1 0.33 0.1%2004.1-2016.2 -10.9 +-3.5 0.58 0.0% -4.7 +-2.3 0.38 0.0% -6.5 +-3.1 0.41 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 -10.2 +-3.8 0.53 0.0% -4.2 +-2.5 0.31 0.2% -6.3 +-3.3 0.36 0.1%2005.1-2016.2 -10.6 +-4.1 0.52 0.0% -4.1 +-2.7 0.27 0.5% -6.7 +-3.6 0.37 0.1%2005.2-2016.2 -10.2 +-4.4 0.47 0.0% -2.5 +-2.1 0.18 2.5% -7.9 +-3.5 0.46 0.0%2006.1-2016.2 -11.4 +-4.5 0.53 0.0% -3.1 +-2.1 0.27 0.8% -8.6 +-3.7 0.49 0.0%2006.2-2016.2 -12.6 +-4.7 0.58 0.0% -3.6 +-2.2 0.33 0.4% -9.3 +-4 0.51 0.0%2007.1-2016.2 -13.3 +-5 0.58 0.0% -4.2 +-2.4 0.39 0.2% -9.6 +-4.4 0.49 0.0%




T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y

2002.1-2016.2 -9.2 +-2.8 0.58 0.0% 11.2% -4.6 +-2 0.4 0.0% 63.3% -4.9 +-2.5 0.38 0.1% 2.7%2002.2-2016.2 -9.7 +-3 0.6 0.0% 16.4% -4.7 +-2.1 0.38 0.0% 61.6% -5.3 +-2.6 0.41 0.0% 4.4%2003.1-2016.2 -10 +-3.2 0.58 0.0% 15.0% -5.1 +-2.2 0.42 0.0% 80.4% -5.1 +-2.8 0.35 0.1% 6.0%2003.2-2016.2 -10.7 +-3.2 0.61 0.0% 23.1% -5.4 +-2.4 0.42 0.0% 70.0% -5.6 +-2.9 0.38 0.1% 9.4%2004.1-2016.2 -11 +-3.5 0.6 0.0% 20.6% -4.6 +-2.4 0.37 0.1% 41.8% -6.7 +-2.8 0.5 0.0% 2.6%2004.2-2016.2 -10.2 +-3.7 0.56 0.0% 13.1% -4.2 +-2.5 0.29 0.3% 54.1% -6.3 +-3 0.48 0.0% 2.0%2005.1-2016.2 -10.8 +-3.9 0.56 0.0% 10.3% -4.1 +-2.8 0.25 0.7% 51.4% -7 +-3.1 0.52 0.0% 1.1%2005.2-2016.2 -10.2 +-4.2 0.52 0.0% 8.0% -2.5 +-2.2 0.14 2.9% 98.6% -7.9 +-3.2 0.57 0.0% 2.0%2006.1-2016.2 -11.8 +-4 0.63 0.0% 2.2% -3.1 +-2.2 0.24 0.9% 72.3% -8.9 +-3.1 0.64 0.0% 0.6%

2006.2-2016.2 -12.6 +-4.2 0.65 0.0% 3.8% -3.6 +-2.3 0.3 0.5% 92.3% -9.3 +-3.4 0.64 0.0% 1.1%2007.1-2016.2 -13.8 +-4.4 0.68 0.0% 1.9% -4.2 +-2.4 0.36 0.2% 69.2% -10 +-3.7 0.64 0.0% 0.8%


Accident Benefits - Funeral Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Measured Reform Factors with SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 1, 2012



T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level

2002.1-2016.2 -6 +-4.9 0.16 2.2% 9.1% 4.5% 1.6562 -4.1 +-3.6 0.52 3.0% 68.7% 0.0% 2.339 -2 +-4.4 0.42 36.2% 2.4% 10.6% 0.70812002.2-2016.2 -6.7 +-5.3 0.18 1.8% 12.7% 3.7% 1.7314 -4.2 +-3.9 0.52 4.2% 68.1% 0.0% 2.3514 -2.6 +-4.7 0.43 26.4% 3.8% 16.4% 0.73632003.1-2016.2 -6.9 +-5.8 0.15 2.5% 13.1% 4.2% 1.7555 -5.1 +-4.1 0.53 2.0% 86.8% 0.0% 2.4868 -1.9 +-5.2 0.39 45.6% 5.9% 12.9% 0.70592003.2-2016.2 -8.2 +-6.1 0.19 1.4% 19.5% 2.5% 1.8974 -5.7 +-4.5 0.54 1.6% 76.1% 0.0% 2.5804 -2.6 +-5.6 0.4 34.6% 8.5% 19.6% 0.73532004.1-2016.2 -8.7 +-6.7 0.17 1.8% 19.0% 2.8% 1.9453 -4 +-4.6 0.59 9.3% 46.8% 0.0% 2.3417 -4.9 +-5.5 0.5 8.7% 2.9% 41.2% 0.83072004.2-2016.2 -6.3 +-7.2 0.14 8.9% 9.9% 6.8% 1.7099 -2.9 +-5 0.61 24.9% 61.3% 0.0% 2.2126 -3.5 +-6 0.49 24.4% 1.9% 26.9% 0.77282005.1-2016.2 -7.2 +-7.9 0.14 8.2% 9.1% 6.3% 1.7861 -2.4 +-5.6 0.61 39.6% 55.5% 0.1% 2.1534 -4.9 +-6.4 0.51 13.5% 1.2% 43.3% 0.82942005.2-2016.2 -5 +-8.6 0.15 25.1% 5.6% 13.1% 1.6029 1.9 +-3.9 0.84 31.4% 86.0% 0.0% 1.7609 -6.8 +-6.7 0.55 5.4% 2.2% 69.5% 0.91032006.1-2016.2 -8.5 +-8.5 0.28 6.0% 1.8% 4.0% 1.8879 0.9 +-4.2 0.84 66.7% 65.0% 0.0% 1.8427 -9.2 +-6.7 0.62 1.3% 0.8% 91.8% 1.02452006.2-2016.2 -10.1 +-9.2 0.29 4.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0337 0.2 +-4.6 0.84 92.9% 77.2% 0.0% 1.8951 -10.2 +-7.4 0.62 1.3% 1.4% 77.6% 1.07312007.1-2016.2 -12.7 +-9.6 0.36 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2823 -0.7 +-5 0.83 76.3% 61.9% 0.0% 1.9658 -12 +-7.9 0.63 0.8% 0.9% 56.0% 1.1612007.2-2016.2 -9 +-9.9 0.43 8.3% 0.5% 3.3% 1.9677 1.3 +-5 0.87 60.2% 33.4% 0.0% 1.8283 -10.2 +-8.8 0.61 3.3% 0.6% 77.9% 1.07632008.1-2016.2 -8.9 +-11.3 0.4 13.0% 0.9% 4.7% 1.9545 2.8 +-5.4 0.89 28.2% 54.1% 0.1% 1.74 -11.3 +-9.7 0.58 3.3% 0.7% 67.4% 1.12332008.2-2016.2 -8.3 +-12.7 0.39 19.9% 1.1% 6.6% 1.9188 3.7 +-5.9 0.88 19.4% 43.3% 0.2% 1.6968 -11.5 +-10.8 0.56 4.9% 1.1% 67.5% 1.13082009.1-2016.2 -9.5 +-13.9 0.4 18.2% 1.3% 6.7% 1.9807 2.6 +-6.3 0.88 37.4% 31.5% 0.1% 1.7388 -11.8 +-12.1 0.49 6.8% 1.7% 67.5% 1.13922009.2-2016.2 -9.1 +-15.4 0.37 23.6% 1.9% 8.3% 1.9694 2.9 +-6.9 0.86 37.2% 31.8% 0.3% 1.7323 -11.7 +-13.3 0.47 9.6% 2.5% 69.4% 1.13692010.1-2016.2 -11.7 +-15.1 0.45 13.4% 1.1% 7.0% 2.0006 2.3 +-7.4 0.84 49.7% 27.8% 0.4% 1.7374 -13.7 +-13.4 0.52 5.9% 1.6% 65.9% 1.15152010.2-2016.2 -11.7 +-16.4 0.4 16.0% 1.9% 8.8% 1.9976 1.4 +-7 0.81 64.8% 45.6% 0.4% 1.6963 -13 +-14.3 0.5 8.6% 1.8% 62.3% 1.17772011.1-2016.2 -12.3 +-17.5 0.4 16.7% 2.5% 13.5% 1.9112 1.4 +-7.6 0.75 67.5% 49.6% 0.7% 1.694 -13.5 +-15.3 0.46 9.3% 2.3% 73.5% 1.12822011.2-2016.2 -12.3 +-19.1 0.35 19.5% 3.7% 17.3% 2.043 1.4 +-8.3 0.64 69.5% 46.9% 1.6% 1.7535 -13.5 +-16.7 0.44 11.7% 3.7% 72.6% 1.16512012.1-2016.2 -8.4 +-11.1 0.82 12.8% 0.1% 6.0% 0.3186 2.1 +-8.9 0.13 58.0% 32.4% 46.8% 1.3167 -10.2 +-11 0.81 7.4% 0.2% 3.0% 0.242

Measured Reform Factors without SeasonalityIncluding Reform Parameter at April 1, 2012



T Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level

2002.1-2016.2 -5.8 +-5.1 0.1 3.1% 5.6% 1.6429 -4.1 +-3.5 0.53 2.6% 0.0% 2.3421 -1.7 +-4.7 0.32 46.0% 12.3% 0.70142002.2-2016.2 -6.8 +-5.4 0.13 1.9% 3.8% 1.7472 -4.2 +-3.8 0.53 3.9% 0.0% 2.3474 -2.7 +-5 0.35 27.9% 20.7% 0.74432003.1-2016.2 -6.7 +-5.9 0.1 3.4% 5.0% 1.7382 -5.1 +-4 0.55 1.7% 0.0% 2.4887 -1.6 +-5.4 0.31 54.4% 13.8% 0.69842003.2-2016.2 -8.3 +-6.2 0.16 1.4% 2.5% 1.9123 -5.7 +-4.4 0.56 1.5% 0.0% 2.5771 -2.7 +-5.8 0.34 35.0% 22.8% 0.7422004.1-2016.2 -8.4 +-6.8 0.14 2.3% 3.2% 1.9228 -4.1 +-4.6 0.6 8.2% 0.0% 2.3514 -4.5 +-6 0.4 14.4% 41.4% 0.81772004.2-2016.2 -6.4 +-7.4 0.06 9.7% 7.4% 1.7262 -2.9 +-4.9 0.62 24.3% 0.0% 2.2084 -3.6 +-6.7 0.36 27.8% 34.2% 0.78172005.1-2016.2 -6.7 +-8.3 0.05 11.8% 8.4% 1.7511 -2.5 +-5.5 0.62 36.6% 0.1% 2.1632 -4.3 +-7.4 0.36 24.5% 43.9% 0.80952005.2-2016.2 -5.1 +-9.3 0.02 27.4% 15.0% 1.6187 1.9 +-3.8 0.85 30.3% 0.0% 1.7615 -6.9 +-7.5 0.44 7.8% 75.3% 0.91892006.1-2016.2 -7.6 +-9.7 0.06 13.0% 8.3% 1.8233 0.9 +-4.1 0.85 63.3% 0.0% 1.8377 -8.5 +-8 0.46 4.8% 97.8% 0.99222006.2-2016.2 -10.1 +-10.2 0.11 6.3% 4.7% 2.0481 0.2 +-4.5 0.84 92.9% 0.0% 1.8959 -10.3 +-8.6 0.49 2.8% 78.9% 1.08032007.1-2016.2 -11.6 +-11.2 0.13 5.6% 4.2% 2.1818 -0.6 +-4.9 0.84 79.2% 0.0% 1.958 -11 +-9.6 0.46 3.5% 72.5% 1.11432007.2-2016.2 -9 +-12.6 0.08 16.4% 8.2% 1.9677 1.3 +-5 0.87 60.1% 0.0% 1.8283 -10.2 +-10.9 0.39 7.9% 82.2% 1.07632008.1-2016.2 -7.3 +-14.2 0.07 30.9% 13.1% 1.8438 2.9 +-5.2 0.89 24.4% 0.1% 1.7312 -9.9 +-12.3 0.33 12.4% 85.6% 1.06512008.2-2016.2 -8 +-15.7 0.06 30.9% 13.7% 1.8907 3.7 +-5.8 0.89 18.4% 0.1% 1.694 -11.3 +-13.4 0.32 10.9% 76.3% 1.11612009.1-2016.2 -7.5 +-17.6 0.05 38.9% 16.6% 1.864 2.9 +-6.2 0.87 31.9% 0.1% 1.7236 -10.1 +-15 0.23 18.7% 83.7% 1.08152009.2-2016.2 -8.5 +-19.1 0.03 36.8% 17.2% 1.8975 3 +-6.9 0.86 35.5% 0.2% 1.7225 -11.2 +-16.2 0.21 18.0% 80.7% 1.10162010.1-2016.2 -9.4 +-20.4 0.01 35.0% 18.7% 1.905 2.7 +-7.4 0.83 43.1% 0.4% 1.7241 -11.8 +-17.4 0.19 18.5% 80.8% 1.10492010.2-2016.2 -10.6 +-21.5 -0.03 32.0% 22.1% 1.8554 1.6 +-6.8 0.81 60.9% 0.3% 1.6836 -12 +-18.8 0.13 21.1% 82.3% 1.10212011.1-2016.2 -10.3 +-23.1 -0.04 36.2% 23.7% 1.916 1.7 +-7.3 0.76 61.6% 0.5% 1.6944 -11.7 +-20.3 0.04 24.8% 79.5% 1.13082011.2-2016.2 -10.3 +-24.8 -0.11 38.4% 39.9% 1.7202 1.7 +-7.8 0.66 63.4% 1.3% 1.7199 -11.8 +-21.6 0.05 26.7% 100.0% 1.00022012.1-2016.2 -8.4 +-27.4 -0.13 50.6% 83.5% 0.7726 2.1 +-8.7 0.11 58.1% 29.9% 1.4702 -10.2 +-24 0.07 36.5% 56.6% 0.5255


Accident Benefits - Death Benefits Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Ending 2016-2No SeasonalityWith Losses prior to April 1, 2012 Increased by 150%




T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 -5.6 +-3.5 0.24 0.3% 0.6 +-2.5 -0.03 61.6% -6.2 +-2.7 0.4 0.0%2002.2-2016.2 -7.1 +-3.3 0.38 0.0% 0.2 +-2.6 -0.04 88.5% -7.2 +-2.6 0.5 0.0%2003.1-2016.2 -6.9 +-3.5 0.34 0.1% 0 +-2.8 -0.04 98.5% -6.9 +-2.8 0.46 0.0%2003.2-2016.2 -7.2 +-3.8 0.34 0.1% 0.3 +-3 -0.04 82.2% -7.5 +-2.9 0.49 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 -7.9 +-3.9 0.38 0.0% -0.1 +-3.2 -0.04 93.8% -7.8 +-3.1 0.49 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 -8 +-4.2 0.36 0.1% -0.5 +-3.4 -0.04 77.1% -7.6 +-3.4 0.44 0.0%2005.1-2016.2 -8.6 +-4.5 0.36 0.1% -1.3 +-3.6 -0.02 46.3% -7.4 +-3.7 0.4 0.1%2005.2-2016.2 -9.8 +-4.7 0.42 0.0% -2.3 +-3.6 0.03 19.7% -7.6 +-4 0.38 0.1%2006.1-2016.2 -10.8 +-4.9 0.46 0.0% -3.4 +-3.7 0.11 7.3% -7.7 +-4.4 0.35 0.2%2006.2-2016.2 -10.8 +-5.4 0.43 0.1% -3.3 +-4.1 0.08 10.9% -7.8 +-4.8 0.32 0.4%2007.1-2016.2 -11.8 +-5.8 0.45 0.1% -4.2 +-4.3 0.14 6.1% -7.9 +-5.3 0.29 0.8%




T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y

2002.1-2016.2 -5.8 +-3.4 0.29 0.2% 9.3% 0.7 +-2.6 -0.03 58.2% 37.0% -6.5 +-2.3 0.57 0.0% 0.2%2002.2-2016.2 -7.1 +-3.2 0.41 0.0% 16.5% 0.2 +-2.6 -0.03 88.5% 26.8% -7.2 +-2.3 0.63 0.0% 0.3%2003.1-2016.2 -7 +-3.5 0.37 0.0% 18.5% 0.1 +-2.8 -0.04 96.5% 31.0% -7.1 +-2.4 0.59 0.0% 0.5%2003.2-2016.2 -7.2 +-3.7 0.36 0.1% 21.7% 0.3 +-3.1 -0.05 82.3% 37.8% -7.5 +-2.6 0.6 0.0% 1.0%2004.1-2016.2 -8.1 +-3.8 0.42 0.0% 12.5% 0 +-3.3 -0.06 97.7% 47.4% -8.1 +-2.7 0.62 0.0% 0.5%2004.2-2016.2 -8 +-4.1 0.39 0.1% 13.5% -0.5 +-3.5 -0.05 77.2% 39.7% -7.6 +-2.8 0.61 0.0% 0.4%2005.1-2016.2 -8.9 +-4.3 0.42 0.1% 9.2% -1.2 +-3.7 -0.05 49.8% 55.2% -7.7 +-3.1 0.58 0.0% 0.4%2005.2-2016.2 -9.8 +-4.5 0.46 0.0% 14.6% -2.3 +-3.6 0.03 19.7% 32.9% -7.6 +-3.4 0.56 0.0% 0.5%2006.1-2016.2 -11.1 +-4.6 0.53 0.0% 7.0% -3.3 +-3.8 0.09 8.7% 50.2% -8.1 +-3.6 0.55 0.0% 0.5%2006.2-2016.2 -10.8 +-5.1 0.5 0.0% 7.3% -3.3 +-4.1 0.06 11.5% 51.8% -7.8 +-4 0.54 0.1% 0.6%2007.1-2016.2 -12.3 +-5.2 0.55 0.0% 3.6% -4.1 +-4.5 0.09 7.3% 68.4% -8.5 +-4.3 0.54 0.1% 0.4%


Accident Benefits - Death Benefits Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles





T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Seasonalit

yT Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level

2002.1-2016.2 -1.3 +-5.7 0.13 64.5% 5.7% 17.4% 1.4302 4.8 +-3.7 0.74 1.1% 35.5% 0.9% 1.5524 -5.8 +-4.2 0.55 1.0% 0.3% 68.1% 0.92132002.2-2016.2 -3.4 +-5.5 0.12 22.2% 9.3% 6.2% 1.6089 4.2 +-3.9 0.73 3.4% 29.6% 0.7% 1.5996 -7.3 +-4.1 0.62 0.2% 0.4% 97.6% 1.00582003.1-2016.2 -2.9 +-6.1 0.1 33.8% 12.5% 9.2% 1.5658 4.4 +-4.3 0.72 4.3% 29.5% 1.1% 1.5847 -7 +-4.5 0.57 0.5% 0.7% 95.2% 0.9882003.2-2016.2 -2.7 +-6.7 0.1 41.6% 13.1% 11.6% 1.5483 5.5 +-4.6 0.74 1.7% 41.3% 2.5% 1.4982 -7.8 +-4.8 0.58 0.4% 1.1% 87.3% 1.03342004.1-2016.2 -4.4 +-7 0.14 21.9% 8.1% 6.7% 1.6915 5.3 +-5 0.72 3.6% 46.6% 2.9% 1.5153 -9.2 +-5 0.61 0.1% 0.5% 59.7% 1.11632004.2-2016.2 -3.7 +-7.8 0.14 34.6% 7.6% 10.0% 1.6327 5 +-5.5 0.7 6.7% 45.3% 3.2% 1.5341 -8.3 +-5.5 0.59 0.7% 0.4% 77.0% 1.06432005.1-2016.2 -5.1 +-8.4 0.16 23.5% 5.9% 7.5% 1.7476 4 +-6 0.68 17.6% 59.9% 2.4% 1.6062 -8.7 +-6.1 0.56 1.0% 0.5% 70.9% 1.08812005.2-2016.2 -6.5 +-9 0.16 16.1% 8.6% 5.8% 1.8596 2.2 +-6.1 0.68 46.2% 41.1% 1.0% 1.7286 -8.4 +-6.7 0.54 2.1% 0.6% 75.9% 1.07582006.1-2016.2 -9.3 +-9.2 0.24 5.8% 4.0% 2.5% 2.1179 0.5 +-6.4 0.66 88.3% 62.3% 0.5% 1.8551 -9.7 +-7.3 0.54 1.6% 0.5% 59.5% 1.14172006.2-2016.2 -8.3 +-10.2 0.24 11.9% 3.9% 4.1% 2.0329 1 +-7.1 0.66 75.9% 69.7% 0.9% 1.8158 -9.3 +-8.1 0.52 3.5% 0.6% 66.6% 1.11962007.1-2016.2 -11.3 +-10.5 0.32 4.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2945 -0.2 +-7.8 0.64 94.7% 87.8% 0.8% 1.9037 -11.1 +-8.7 0.53 2.2% 0.5% 49.1% 1.20532007.2-2016.2 -8.9 +-11.3 0.36 12.9% 1.2% 3.3% 2.1206 -0.3 +-8.6 0.62 95.1% 88.3% 1.1% 1.904 -8.7 +-9.1 0.54 7.0% 0.2% 68.0% 1.11382008.1-2016.2 -13.4 +-10.2 0.52 2.0% 0.2% 0.7% 2.4708 -3.1 +-8.5 0.63 45.2% 73.7% 0.4% 2.0776 -10.7 +-9.6 0.56 4.1% 0.2% 51.6% 1.18932008.2-2016.2 -12.8 +-11.2 0.52 3.8% 0.3% 1.0% 2.4346 -2.7 +-9.3 0.61 54.4% 70.7% 0.6% 2.061 -10.4 +-10.6 0.55 6.6% 0.2% 55.0% 1.18122009.1-2016.2 -12.9 +-12.6 0.5 5.9% 0.5% 1.4% 2.4381 -3.7 +-10.2 0.59 44.9% 60.5% 0.7% 2.104 -9.5 +-11.8 0.44 12.2% 0.6% 61.2% 1.15882009.2-2016.2 -12.3 +-13.6 0.49 8.8% 0.7% 1.9% 2.4381 -5.5 +-9.7 0.56 25.1% 87.4% 0.5% 2.104 -7.3 +-11.5 0.52 20.5% 0.2% 57.9% 1.15882010.1-2016.2 -13.9 +-14.3 0.51 7.2% 0.7% 2.2% 2.4381 -5 +-10.6 0.54 33.3% 96.1% 0.7% 2.104 -9.3 +-11.2 0.6 10.7% 0.1% 56.1% 1.15882010.2-2016.2 -13.5 +-15.3 0.49 9.6% 1.0% 2.7% 2.5186 -4.6 +-11.3 0.53 39.4% 82.7% 0.9% 2.1693 -9.3 +-12.1 0.59 13.1% 0.3% 58.5% 1.1612011.1-2016.2 -13 +-16.8 0.48 13.2% 2.0% 3.7% 2.6043 -3.1 +-10.7 0.64 52.2% 84.0% 0.4% 2.4055 -10.2 +-12.5 0.6 11.0% 0.3% 78.0% 1.08262011.2-2016.2 -13 +-11.8 0.77 4.5% 0.1% 0.2% 4.8632 -3.1 +-10 0.69 48.7% 67.2% 0.3% 3.0701 -10.2 +-10.4 0.75 6.4% 0.1% 14.6% 1.58412012.1-2016.2 -13 +-11.8 0.75 4.5% 0.1% NA NA -3.1 +-10 -0.18 48.7% 67.2% NA NA -10.2 +-10.4 0.77 6.4% 0.1% NA NA




T Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Level


T Pval Time

T Pval Level

Lvl Ch Val: Level

2002.1-2016.2 -0.7 +-6 0.03 80.1% 25.1% 1.3716 4.6 +-3.6 0.74 1.3% 0.7% 1.5711 -5.1 +-4.9 0.38 4.7% 56.0% 0.8732002.2-2016.2 -3.2 +-5.7 0.05 26.3% 8.2% 1.579 4.1 +-3.9 0.73 3.6% 0.6% 1.6118 -7.1 +-4.7 0.49 0.7% 92.6% 0.97972003.1-2016.2 -2.4 +-6.3 0.05 44.1% 12.9% 1.5081 4.1 +-4.3 0.72 5.4% 0.9% 1.6114 -6.3 +-5.2 0.44 2.4% 77.1% 0.93592003.2-2016.2 -2.5 +-6.9 0.04 46.7% 14.4% 1.515 5.4 +-4.5 0.74 1.7% 2.1% 1.5092 -7.5 +-5.4 0.47 1.1% 98.7% 1.0038

2004.1-2016.2 -3.6 +-7.4 0.05 32.8% 11.0% 1.6053 5.1 +-4.9 0.73 4.0% 2.2% 1.5364 -8.3 +-5.9 0.47 1.0% 85.5% 1.04492004.2-2016.2 -3.3 +-8.2 0.04 41.9% 14.1% 1.5799 4.9 +-5.5 0.71 6.9% 2.7% 1.5477 -7.8 +-6.5 0.42 2.6% 93.5% 1.02082005.1-2016.2 -3.9 +-9 0.04 38.2% 13.7% 1.6279 3.8 +-5.8 0.69 18.6% 1.8% 1.6262 -7.4 +-7.2 0.37 5.3% 99.7% 1.00112005.2-2016.2 -6 +-9.5 0.06 21.8% 8.8% 1.7841 2 +-6 0.68 49.0% 0.8% 1.7494 -7.8 +-8 0.35 6.4% 94.4% 1.01982006.1-2016.2 -7.8 +-10.1 0.09 13.7% 6.3% 1.9325 0.2 +-6.2 0.68 94.2% 0.3% 1.8797 -8 +-8.9 0.32 8.7% 92.6% 1.02812006.2-2016.2 -7.4 +-11.3 0.07 20.0% 8.4% 1.9047 0.9 +-6.9 0.68 77.7% 0.7% 1.8291 -8.3 +-9.9 0.28 10.8% 89.8% 1.04132007.1-2016.2 -9 +-12.3 0.09 15.7% 7.2% 2.021 -0.3 +-7.4 0.66 92.2% 0.5% 1.9133 -8.7 +-11 0.25 12.9% 87.0% 1.05632007.2-2016.2 -7.4 +-13.7 0.07 28.4% 10.9% 1.9153 -0.3 +-8.3 0.65 93.8% 0.8% 1.911 -7.2 +-12.3 0.17 25.0% 99.5% 1.00222008.1-2016.2 -9.9 +-14.4 0.09 18.1% 8.2% 2.065 -2.9 +-8.1 0.65 46.8% 0.3% 2.0529 -7.3 +-13.6 0.13 28.9% 98.7% 1.00592008.2-2016.2 -10.5 +-15.7 0.08 19.4% 9.0% 2.0979 -2.5 +-8.9 0.64 55.7% 0.5% 2.0374 -8.2 +-14.8 0.12 27.2% 93.9% 1.02972009.1-2016.2 -8.8 +-17.3 0.09 30.9% 11.2% 2.0343 -3.2 +-9.7 0.61 48.9% 0.6% 2.0611 -5.8 +-16 0.01 46.0% 97.3% 0.9872009.2-2016.2 -9.5 +-18.7 0.07 30.9% 12.3% 2.0449 -5.4 +-9.1 0.6 23.5% 0.3% 2.092 -4.4 +-17.5 -0.07 59.9% 95.3% 0.97752010.1-2016.2 -9.4 +-20.3 0.05 34.8% 14.1% 2.0467 -4.9 +-9.8 0.58 30.4% 0.5% 2.1002 -4.7 +-18.9 -0.09 59.8% 95.0% 0.97452010.2-2016.2 -10.1 +-21.7 0.01 34.7% 17.8% 1.9941 -4.4 +-10.5 0.57 38.2% 0.6% 2.1458 -5.9 +-19.7 -0.06 52.6% 86.3% 0.92932011.1-2016.2 -9 +-22.9 0.06 41.5% 14.2% 2.2706 -3.3 +-9.7 0.68 46.4% 0.2% 2.4192 -5.8 +-21.3 -0.12 55.8% 89.3% 0.93862011.2-2016.2 -8.5 +-24.5 0.06 46.1% 14.4% 2.7772 -2.8 +-9.1 0.72 50.1% 0.1% 2.9593 -5.8 +-23.1 -0.17 58.3% 91.5% 0.93842012.1-2016.2 -8.5 +-24.5 -0.05 46.1% NA NA -2.8 +-9.1 -0.06 50.1% NA NA -5.8 +-23.1 -0.08 58.3% NA NA


Collision Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


Before DCPDNo Seasonality




T Pval Time

2002.1-2012.2 2 +-1.2 0.35 0.2% 2.4 +-0.8 0.66 0.0% -0.4 +-1.2 -0.03 53.2%2002.2-2012.2 1.9 +-1.3 0.29 0.7% 2.2 +-0.8 0.61 0.0% -0.3 +-1.3 -0.04 64.1%2003.1-2012.2 2.1 +-1.5 0.31 0.6% 2.5 +-0.8 0.67 0.0% -0.3 +-1.4 -0.04 62.6%2003.2-2012.2 1.7 +-1.5 0.21 2.7% 2.4 +-0.9 0.62 0.0% -0.6 +-1.6 -0.02 40.8%2004.1-2012.2 1 +-1.4 0.08 13.8% 2.6 +-1 0.63 0.0% -1.5 +-1.3 0.22 2.8%2004.2-2012.2 0.8 +-1.6 0.01 29.2% 2.7 +-1.1 0.63 0.0% -1.9 +-1.4 0.32 1.1%2005.1-2012.2 0.6 +-1.7 -0.04 50.1% 2.8 +-1.3 0.6 0.0% -2.2 +-1.5 0.38 0.7%2005.2-2012.2 -0.3 +-1.6 -0.07 71.7% 2.4 +-1.3 0.52 0.2% -2.6 +-1.6 0.44 0.4%2006.1-2012.2 -0.8 +-1.7 0.01 31.9% 2.3 +-1.5 0.45 0.5% -3.1 +-1.7 0.51 0.2%2006.2-2012.2 -1.4 +-1.7 0.16 9.6% 2.4 +-1.8 0.4 1.2% -3.7 +-1.7 0.63 0.1%2007.1-2012.2 -2.1 +-1.8 0.32 3.4% 1.4 +-1.6 0.23 6.4% -3.5 +-2.1 0.53 0.4%2007.2-2012.2 -2.1 +-2.2 0.25 6.7% 0.6 +-1.3 0 35.0% -2.6 +-2.2 0.39 2.4%2008.1-2012.2 -1.4 +-2.6 0.05 25.7% 0.5 +-1.6 -0.04 45.6% -1.9 +-2.4 0.19 11.4%

2008.2-2012.2 -1.4 +-3.3 0.01 33.7% 1.1 +-1.8 0.12 19.4% -2.5 +-2.9 0.27 8.6%2009.1-2012.2 -1.5 +-4.4 -0.05 44.0% 2 +-1.8 0.49 3.1% -3.4 +-3.5 0.4 5.6%2009.2-2012.2 -1.1 +-6.2 -0.15 65.5% 1.7 +-2.4 0.28 12.8% -2.8 +-4.8 0.16 20.0%

Before DCPDWith Seasonality



T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y2002.1-2012.2 2 +-1.2 0.35 0.3% 33.0% 2.3 +-0.8 0.69 0.0% 14.2% -0.4 +-1.2 -0.08 54.1% 95.4%2002.2-2012.2 1.9 +-1.3 0.28 0.8% 38.7% 2.2 +-0.8 0.63 0.0% 21.5% -0.3 +-1.3 -0.1 65.0% 90.8%2003.1-2012.2 2.1 +-1.5 0.29 0.8% 49.8% 2.4 +-0.8 0.67 0.0% 36.1% -0.4 +-1.5 -0.1 62.7% 87.6%2003.2-2012.2 1.7 +-1.6 0.17 3.1% 67.8% 2.4 +-0.9 0.62 0.0% 42.4% -0.6 +-1.6 -0.08 42.2% 95.6%2004.1-2012.2 1 +-1.4 0.11 16.5% 24.1% 2.5 +-1 0.61 0.0% 55.8% -1.5 +-1.3 0.2 2.7% 42.8%2004.2-2012.2 0.8 +-1.6 0.02 29.3% 31.9% 2.7 +-1.1 0.62 0.0% 44.5% -1.9 +-1.4 0.28 1.3% 61.5%2005.1-2012.2 0.5 +-1.7 0.01 58.2% 22.8% 2.8 +-1.3 0.58 0.0% 51.5% -2.3 +-1.5 0.36 0.7% 40.6%2005.2-2012.2 -0.3 +-1.6 -0.09 72.0% 40.0% 2.4 +-1.4 0.48 0.2% 76.2% -2.6 +-1.7 0.41 0.6% 56.2%2006.1-2012.2 -0.9 +-1.6 0.1 23.0% 16.2% 2.3 +-1.6 0.4 0.8% 73.5% -3.2 +-1.7 0.52 0.2% 30.6%2006.2-2012.2 -1.4 +-1.7 0.19 9.4% 27.4% 2.4 +-1.9 0.35 1.7% 70.9% -3.7 +-1.8 0.61 0.1% 49.6%2007.1-2012.2 -2.3 +-1.6 0.48 1.3% 7.1% 1.3 +-1.5 0.33 8.0% 15.3% -3.5 +-2.2 0.5 0.6% 62.6%2007.2-2012.2 -2.1 +-2 0.44 4.3% 8.0% 0.6 +-1.3 0.06 33.9% 24.4% -2.6 +-2.2 0.41 2.5% 29.6%2008.1-2012.2 -1.7 +-2.4 0.2 15.7% 15.8% 0.4 +-1.6 0.03 58.1% 24.0% -2 +-2.6 0.14 11.2% 49.9%2008.2-2012.2 -1.4 +-3.1 0.16 30.6% 18.3% 1.1 +-1.5 0.44 12.2% 6.6% -2.5 +-3.2 0.18 10.9% 66.9%2009.1-2012.2 -2.1 +-4.2 0.16 26.9% 17.8% 1.8 +-1.6 0.62 3.9% 14.0% -3.8 +-3.8 0.4 5.3% 35.8%2009.2-2012.2 -1.1 +-5.7 0.17 60.7% 16.5% 1.7 +-2.4 0.41 11.5% 22.3% -2.8 +-4.9 0.26 19.2% 27.0%




After DCPDNo Seasonality




T Pval Time

2013.2-2016.2 4.9 +-7.9 0.22 16.4% 6.9 +-6.1 0.58 2.9% -1.9 +-12.1 -0.16 70.8%2014.1-2016.2 5.9 +-12 0.16 23.3% 7.2 +-9.3 0.44 8.9% -1.2 +-18.7 -0.24 86.2%2014.2-2016.2 4.9 +-20.8 -0.11 49.3% 6.2 +-15.9 0.14 29.2% -1.2 +-33.1 -0.33 91.8%

After DCPD and Excluding 2015-1No Seasonality




T Pval Time

2013.1-2016.2 4.5 +-3.5 0.63 2.1% 9 +-4.7 0.81 0.4% -4.2 +-5.9 0.26 13.6%2013.2-2016.2 4.9 +-5.1 0.56 5.3% 6.9 +-4.5 0.78 1.2% -1.9 +-7 -0.1 49.7%2014.1-2016.2 7 +-6.4 0.75 3.7% 6.5 +-7.6 0.64 6.5% 0.4 +-9.9 -0.33 90.8%

All Time PeriodsNo Seasonality




T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 1.6 +-0.7 0.41 0.0% 4 +-0.7 0.82 0.0% -2.3 +-1 0.42 0.0%2002.2-2016.2 1.5 +-0.8 0.36 0.0% 4 +-0.8 0.8 0.0% -2.3 +-1 0.42 0.0%2003.1-2016.2 1.6 +-0.8 0.37 0.0% 4.2 +-0.8 0.83 0.0% -2.5 +-1.1 0.43 0.0%2003.2-2016.2 1.4 +-0.8 0.3 0.2% 4.3 +-0.8 0.82 0.0% -2.7 +-1.1 0.47 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 1.1 +-0.8 0.22 1.0% 4.5 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% -3.3 +-1 0.63 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 1 +-0.9 0.16 2.5% 4.7 +-0.9 0.84 0.0% -3.5 +-1 0.67 0.0%2005.1-2016.2 0.9 +-0.9 0.12 5.5% 4.9 +-0.9 0.84 0.0% -3.8 +-1.1 0.69 0.0%2005.2-2016.2 0.6 +-0.9 0.03 19.8% 4.8 +-1 0.82 0.0% -4.1 +-1.1 0.71 0.0%2006.1-2016.2 0.5 +-1 -0.01 35.5% 5 +-1.1 0.81 0.0% -4.3 +-1.2 0.73 0.0%2006.2-2016.2 0.3 +-1.1 -0.03 54.6% 5.3 +-1.2 0.82 0.0% -4.7 +-1.2 0.76 0.0%2007.1-2016.2 0.3 +-1.2 -0.04 66.2% 5.1 +-1.3 0.79 0.0% -4.7 +-1.3 0.73 0.0%2007.2-2016.2 0.4 +-1.3 -0.03 48.2% 5.2 +-1.5 0.76 0.0% -4.5 +-1.5 0.69 0.0%2008.1-2016.2 0.9 +-1.4 0.06 17.6% 5.5 +-1.6 0.78 0.0% -4.4 +-1.6 0.64 0.0%2008.2-2016.2 1.1 +-1.5 0.08 13.9% 6.1 +-1.6 0.82 0.0% -4.7 +-1.8 0.65 0.0%2009.1-2016.2 1.3 +-1.7 0.12 10.8% 6.8 +-1.5 0.86 0.0% -5.1 +-1.9 0.66 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 1.7 +-1.9 0.17 6.8% 7.2 +-1.7 0.86 0.0% -5.1 +-2.2 0.61 0.0%2010.1-2016.2 2.5 +-1.9 0.35 1.5% 7.7 +-1.8 0.87 0.0% -4.9 +-2.6 0.53 0.2%2010.2-2016.2 2.2 +-2.2 0.24 5.2% 8 +-2.1 0.86 0.0% -5.4 +-2.9 0.54 0.2%2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-2.6 0.29 4.0% 8.8 +-2.2 0.88 0.0% -5.7 +-3.5 0.51 0.5%2011.2-2016.2 2.8 +-3.1 0.24 7.1% 9.2 +-2.7 0.87 0.0% -5.9 +-4.2 0.46 1.4%2012.1-2016.2 4 +-3.4 0.42 2.5% 9.7 +-3.2 0.85 0.0% -5.3 +-5.2 0.31 5.3%2012.2-2016.2 4.7 +-4.2 0.45 3.0% 9.8 +-4.1 0.81 0.1% -4.6 +-6.7 0.17 15.2%2013.1-2016.2 4.9 +-5.6 0.34 7.4% 8.8 +-5.1 0.72 0.5% -3.6 +-8.8 0 36.3%2013.2-2016.2 4.9 +-7.9 0.22 16.4% 6.9 +-6.1 0.58 2.9% -1.9 +-12.1 -0.16 70.8%2014.1-2016.2 5.9 +-12 0.16 23.3% 7.2 +-9.3 0.44 8.9% -1.2 +-18.7 -0.24 86.2%




All Time PeriodsWith Seasonality



T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y2002.1-2016.2 1.6 +-0.7 0.41 0.0% 39.6% 3.9 +-0.7 0.83 0.0% 10.2% -2.2 +-1 0.41 0.0% 61.1%2002.2-2016.2 1.5 +-0.8 0.35 0.0% 46.7% 4 +-0.8 0.82 0.0% 10.4% -2.3 +-1 0.4 0.0% 55.2%2003.1-2016.2 1.6 +-0.8 0.36 0.0% 55.4% 4.2 +-0.8 0.83 0.0% 18.2% -2.5 +-1.1 0.41 0.0% 66.0%2003.2-2016.2 1.4 +-0.9 0.28 0.2% 74.2% 4.3 +-0.8 0.83 0.0% 15.0% -2.7 +-1.1 0.46 0.0% 46.2%2004.1-2016.2 1.1 +-0.8 0.21 1.2% 35.8% 4.5 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% 23.5% -3.3 +-1 0.61 0.0% 81.9%2004.2-2016.2 1 +-0.9 0.15 2.7% 43.0% 4.7 +-0.9 0.85 0.0% 12.8% -3.5 +-1 0.66 0.0% 57.1%2005.1-2016.2 0.9 +-0.9 0.11 6.4% 36.4% 4.8 +-0.9 0.85 0.0% 19.1% -3.8 +-1.1 0.68 0.0% 76.9%2005.2-2016.2 0.6 +-0.9 0 20.5% 55.7% 4.8 +-1 0.82 0.0% 21.0% -4.1 +-1.1 0.7 0.0% 56.1%2006.1-2016.2 0.4 +-1 -0.02 39.4% 43.9% 5 +-1.1 0.82 0.0% 28.4% -4.3 +-1.2 0.72 0.0% 77.0%2006.2-2016.2 0.3 +-1.1 -0.06 55.2% 52.5% 5.3 +-1.2 0.82 0.0% 17.9% -4.7 +-1.2 0.75 0.0% 52.0%2007.1-2016.2 0.2 +-1.2 -0.07 71.2% 48.0% 5.1 +-1.3 0.8 0.0% 14.2% -4.6 +-1.3 0.72 0.0% 49.8%2007.2-2016.2 0.4 +-1.3 -0.04 48.5% 37.3% 5.2 +-1.4 0.78 0.0% 14.3% -4.5 +-1.5 0.67 0.0% 59.1%2008.1-2016.2 0.9 +-1.4 0.01 20.5% 59.5% 5.5 +-1.6 0.78 0.0% 23.2% -4.4 +-1.7 0.63 0.0% 54.9%2008.2-2016.2 1.1 +-1.5 0.05 14.7% 48.8% 6.1 +-1.4 0.85 0.0% 6.3% -4.7 +-1.8 0.65 0.0% 39.5%2009.1-2016.2 1.3 +-1.8 0.07 13.2% 61.1% 6.7 +-1.5 0.88 0.0% 12.7% -5.1 +-2 0.64 0.0% 53.8%2009.2-2016.2 1.7 +-1.9 0.15 7.4% 44.7% 7.2 +-1.5 0.89 0.0% 5.7% -5.1 +-2.3 0.59 0.0% 55.0%2010.1-2016.2 2.4 +-2 0.3 2.2% 74.3% 7.5 +-1.7 0.89 0.0% 10.8% -4.7 +-2.7 0.52 0.3% 46.3%2010.2-2016.2 2.2 +-2.3 0.16 6.4% 86.7% 8 +-1.9 0.89 0.0% 6.8% -5.4 +-3 0.55 0.3% 33.1%2011.1-2016.2 2.7 +-2.8 0.21 5.3% 92.1% 8.6 +-2.1 0.9 0.0% 14.1% -5.5 +-3.6 0.5 0.9% 39.6%2011.2-2016.2 2.8 +-3.4 0.15 9.0% 95.9% 9.2 +-2.4 0.9 0.0% 8.6% -5.9 +-4.3 0.45 1.6% 36.6%2012.1-2016.2 4.1 +-3.7 0.37 3.0% 55.6% 9.4 +-3 0.88 0.0% 14.1% -4.8 +-5.3 0.35 7.6% 26.2%2012.2-2016.2 4.7 +-4.6 0.37 4.3% 71.3% 9.8 +-3.8 0.85 0.1% 14.4% -4.6 +-6.8 0.18 15.6% 33.3%2013.1-2016.2 5.1 +-6.5 0.24 9.5% 69.3% 7.9 +-3.6 0.88 0.2% 2.9% -2.6 +-8.9 0.13 49.8% 22.7%2013.2-2016.2 4.9 +-9.4 0.06 21.2% 71.9% 6.9 +-4.5 0.8 1.2% 6.3% -1.9 +-12.9 -0.12 70.7% 33.6%2014.1-2016.2 6.7 +-16 -0.01 25.9% 61.1% 5.5 +-6.8 0.79 7.6% 7.2% 1.1 +-21.7 -0.1 87.6% 30.9%

All Time PeriodsNo SeasonalityExcluding 2015-1




T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 1.5 +-0.7 0.37 0.0% 4 +-0.8 0.81 0.0% -2.4 +-1 0.46 0.0%2002.2-2016.2 1.4 +-0.8 0.32 0.1% 4 +-0.8 0.8 0.0% -2.5 +-1 0.46 0.0%2003.1-2016.2 1.5 +-0.8 0.33 0.1% 4.3 +-0.8 0.82 0.0% -2.7 +-1.1 0.47 0.0%2003.2-2016.2 1.3 +-0.8 0.25 0.5% 4.3 +-0.9 0.81 0.0% -3 +-1.1 0.52 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 0.9 +-0.8 0.16 2.6% 4.6 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% -3.5 +-1 0.69 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 0.8 +-0.8 0.11 6.6% 4.8 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% -3.8 +-1 0.73 0.0%2005.1-2016.2 0.7 +-0.9 0.06 13.2% 5 +-1 0.84 0.0% -4.1 +-1 0.76 0.0%2005.2-2016.2 0.3 +-0.9 -0.02 43.8% 4.9 +-1.1 0.82 0.0% -4.4 +-1 0.79 0.0%2006.1-2016.2 0.2 +-0.9 -0.05 71.6% 5.1 +-1.2 0.81 0.0% -4.7 +-1 0.82 0.0%2006.2-2016.2 0 +-1 -0.06 99.8% 5.4 +-1.2 0.82 0.0% -5.1 +-1 0.85 0.0%2007.1-2016.2 -0.1 +-1.1 -0.06 86.3% 5.3 +-1.4 0.79 0.0% -5.1 +-1.1 0.83 0.0%2007.2-2016.2 0.1 +-1.2 -0.06 88.5% 5.3 +-1.5 0.76 0.0% -4.9 +-1.2 0.81 0.0%2008.1-2016.2 0.5 +-1.2 -0.01 37.0% 5.7 +-1.6 0.78 0.0% -4.9 +-1.4 0.78 0.0%2008.2-2016.2 0.7 +-1.3 0.02 28.3% 6.3 +-1.6 0.83 0.0% -5.3 +-1.4 0.8 0.0%2009.1-2016.2 0.9 +-1.5 0.05 20.9% 7 +-1.6 0.88 0.0% -5.7 +-1.5 0.82 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 1.3 +-1.7 0.12 12.2% 7.4 +-1.7 0.88 0.0% -5.8 +-1.7 0.79 0.0%2010.1-2016.2 2 +-1.6 0.36 1.8% 8 +-1.8 0.89 0.0% -5.6 +-2 0.74 0.0%2010.2-2016.2 1.6 +-1.8 0.23 6.7% 8.3 +-2.1 0.88 0.0% -6.1 +-2.2 0.77 0.0%2011.1-2016.2 2.1 +-2 0.31 4.2% 9.2 +-2.1 0.91 0.0% -6.5 +-2.5 0.75 0.0%2011.2-2016.2 2.2 +-2.5 0.26 7.4% 9.6 +-2.5 0.91 0.0% -6.7 +-3.1 0.72 0.1%2012.1-2016.2 3.4 +-2.3 0.59 1.0% 10.1 +-3 0.9 0.0% -6.1 +-3.7 0.62 0.7%2012.2-2016.2 4.2 +-2.6 0.68 0.7% 10.2 +-3.9 0.86 0.0% -5.4 +-4.7 0.48 3.3%2013.1-2016.2 4.5 +-3.5 0.63 2.1% 9 +-4.7 0.81 0.4% -4.2 +-5.9 0.26 13.6%2013.2-2016.2 4.9 +-5.1 0.56 5.3% 6.9 +-4.5 0.78 1.2% -1.9 +-7 -0.1 49.7%2014.1-2016.2 7 +-6.4 0.75 3.7% 6.5 +-7.6 0.64 6.5% 0.4 +-9.9 -0.33 90.8%


Comprehensive Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


With Seasonality



T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y

2002.1-2016.2 3 +-0.9 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.7 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 1.1 +-1 0.12 2.5% 79.2%2002.2-2016.2 3.4 +-0.8 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 1.8 +-0.7 0.72 0.0% 0.0% 1.6 +-0.8 0.36 0.0% 30.6%2003.1-2016.2 3.5 +-0.8 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 1.5 +-0.7 0.77 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.8 0.48 0.0% 53.8%2003.2-2016.2 3.6 +-0.9 0.83 0.0% 0.0% 1.5 +-0.7 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 2.1 +-0.8 0.5 0.0% 41.9%2004.1-2016.2 4.1 +-0.7 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 1.7 +-0.7 0.77 0.0% 0.0% 2.3 +-0.8 0.59 0.0% 67.0%2004.2-2016.2 4.1 +-0.8 0.89 0.0% 0.0% 1.8 +-0.8 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 2.2 +-0.9 0.53 0.0% 81.5%2005.1-2016.2 4 +-0.8 0.89 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.9 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 2 +-0.9 0.47 0.0% 65.1%2005.2-2016.2 3.9 +-0.9 0.86 0.0% 0.0% 2 +-0.9 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 1.8 +-1 0.4 0.1% 84.8%2006.1-2016.2 3.7 +-1 0.87 0.0% 0.0% 2 +-1 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 1.6 +-1 0.32 0.3% 67.1%2006.2-2016.2 3.7 +-1.1 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 2.3 +-1.1 0.78 0.0% 0.0% 1.4 +-1.1 0.22 1.4% 91.2%2007.1-2016.2 3.5 +-1.2 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 2.5 +-1.2 0.79 0.0% 0.0% 1 +-1.1 0.12 5.9% 62.1%2007.2-2016.2 3.6 +-1.3 0.83 0.0% 0.0% 2.6 +-1.3 0.77 0.0% 0.0% 1 +-1.2 0.07 9.7% 66.6%2008.1-2016.2 3.8 +-1.4 0.83 0.0% 0.0% 2.8 +-1.4 0.78 0.1% 0.0% 0.9 +-1.4 0.03 16.0% 64.7%

2008.2-2016.2 4.2 +-1.5 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 +-1.5 0.79 0.0% 0.0% 1 +-1.5 0 19.9% 65.3%2009.1-2016.2 4.7 +-1.6 0.86 0.0% 0.0% 3.7 +-1.6 0.82 0.0% 0.0% 1 +-1.8 -0.02 25.4% 68.1%2009.2-2016.2 5.3 +-1.6 0.88 0.0% 0.0% 4 +-1.8 0.82 0.0% 0.0% 1.2 +-2 0 21.0% 59.3%2010.1-2016.2 5.7 +-1.8 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 4.3 +-2 0.82 0.1% 0.0% 1.3 +-2.4 -0.01 23.7% 67.1%2010.2-2016.2 5.8 +-2.1 0.87 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 +-1.9 0.89 0.0% 0.0% 0.5 +-2.4 -0.17 63.8% 97.5%2011.1-2016.2 6.1 +-2.6 0.87 0.0% 0.0% 6.3 +-1.6 0.94 0.0% 0.0% -0.2 +-2.7 -0.2 88.8% 70.1%2011.2-2016.2 7 +-2.8 0.88 0.0% 0.0% 6.7 +-1.9 0.93 0.0% 0.0% 0.3 +-3.2 -0.2 84.6% 59.2%2012.1-2016.2 8.3 +-2.8 0.93 0.0% 0.0% 6.3 +-2.3 0.93 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-3.2 -0.01 21.0% 92.1%2012.2-2016.2 8.4 +-3.6 0.9 0.1% 0.1% 6.5 +-3 0.91 0.1% 0.0% 1.8 +-4.2 -0.12 33.2% 90.8%2013.1-2016.2 8.5 +-5.1 0.89 0.7% 0.4% 6.6 +-4.2 0.91 0.9% 0.2% 1.8 +-5.9 -0.24 46.0% 91.6%2013.2-2016.2 6.7 +-5.7 0.85 2.8% 0.8% 6.7 +-6.1 0.86 3.4% 0.6% 0 +-7 -0.4 99.7% 63.0%2014.1-2016.2 7.4 +-9.9 0.84 8.9% 3.4% 6 +-10.4 0.84 15.3% 2.4% 1.3 +-11.9 -0.45 75.2% 55.8%

With SeasonalityExcluding 2015-1



T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y2002.1-2016.2 2.9 +-0.9 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.7 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 0.9 +-1 0.08 6.0% 58.7%2002.2-2016.2 3.3 +-0.8 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.7 0.72 0.0% 0.0% 1.4 +-0.8 0.34 0.1% 17.1%2003.1-2016.2 3.3 +-0.8 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 1.5 +-0.7 0.77 0.0% 0.0% 1.8 +-0.8 0.46 0.0% 33.1%2003.2-2016.2 3.5 +-0.9 0.84 0.0% 0.0% 1.6 +-0.8 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.8 0.49 0.0% 24.8%2004.1-2016.2 4 +-0.7 0.91 0.0% 0.0% 1.8 +-0.8 0.77 0.0% 0.0% 2.2 +-0.8 0.57 0.0% 43.7%2004.2-2016.2 3.9 +-0.8 0.89 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.8 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 2 +-0.9 0.5 0.0% 56.1%2005.1-2016.2 3.8 +-0.8 0.89 0.0% 0.0% 1.9 +-0.9 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 1.8 +-0.9 0.45 0.0% 39.0%2005.2-2016.2 3.7 +-0.9 0.87 0.0% 0.0% 2 +-1 0.76 0.0% 0.0% 1.6 +-0.9 0.36 0.2% 54.7%2006.1-2016.2 3.5 +-1 0.88 0.0% 0.0% 2.1 +-1.1 0.75 0.1% 0.0% 1.4 +-1 0.3 0.9% 36.0%2006.2-2016.2 3.5 +-1.1 0.86 0.0% 0.0% 2.4 +-1.1 0.78 0.0% 0.0% 1.1 +-1 0.17 3.3% 54.0%2007.1-2016.2 3.3 +-1.2 0.86 0.0% 0.0% 2.6 +-1.2 0.79 0.0% 0.0% 0.7 +-1 0.12 15.4% 23.7%2007.2-2016.2 3.4 +-1.3 0.85 0.0% 0.0% 2.7 +-1.4 0.77 0.1% 0.0% 0.7 +-1.1 0.06 21.6% 27.8%2008.1-2016.2 3.5 +-1.4 0.85 0.0% 0.0% 2.9 +-1.5 0.78 0.1% 0.0% 0.5 +-1.2 0.05 37.3% 24.8%2008.2-2016.2 3.9 +-1.5 0.86 0.0% 0.0% 3.3 +-1.6 0.79 0.1% 0.0% 0.6 +-1.4 0.02 39.9% 26.6%2009.1-2016.2 4.4 +-1.6 0.88 0.0% 0.0% 3.9 +-1.7 0.83 0.0% 0.0% 0.5 +-1.6 0.01 53.2% 27.3%2009.2-2016.2 4.9 +-1.6 0.91 0.0% 0.0% 4.2 +-1.9 0.82 0.0% 0.0% 0.7 +-1.8 0.05 38.9% 22.4%2010.1-2016.2 5.3 +-1.8 0.92 0.0% 0.0% 4.6 +-2.2 0.83 0.1% 0.0% 0.7 +-2.1 0.03 46.5% 26.9%2010.2-2016.2 5.5 +-2.1 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 +-2 0.89 0.0% 0.0% 0 +-2.1 -0.14 99.6% 45.0%2011.1-2016.2 5.7 +-2.6 0.89 0.1% 0.0% 6.7 +-1.5 0.96 0.0% 0.0% -0.9 +-2.1 0.08 33.6% 16.1%2011.2-2016.2 6.6 +-2.6 0.92 0.0% 0.0% 7 +-1.7 0.95 0.0% 0.0% -0.4 +-2.3 0.16 70.2% 9.8%2012.1-2016.2 7.8 +-2.5 0.95 0.0% 0.0% 6.7 +-2.2 0.95 0.0% 0.0% 1 +-1.5 0.42 15.4% 12.5%2012.2-2016.2 8.1 +-3.3 0.93 0.1% 0.1% 6.8 +-2.8 0.93 0.1% 0.1% 1.2 +-2 0.36 17.3% 14.1%2013.1-2016.2 8 +-4.8 0.93 0.9% 0.4% 7 +-4.2 0.92 0.9% 0.5% 0.9 +-2.8 0.31 40.8% 17.5%2013.2-2016.2 6.7 +-6 0.89 3.5% 1.3% 6.7 +-6.4 0.85 4.2% 2.2% 0 +-2.9 -0.14 99.3% 32.3%2014.1-2016.2 7.4 +-12.8 0.87 12.3% 5.8% 6 +-13.7 0.83 19.0% 7.3% 1.3 +-2.7 0.52 17.7% 47.5%


Comprehensive Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


No Seasonality




T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 3.2 +-1.3 0.47 0.0% 2 +-1.1 0.32 0.1% 1.1 +-0.9 0.14 2.2%2002.2-2016.2 3.4 +-1.3 0.5 0.0% 1.8 +-1.1 0.26 0.3% 1.6 +-0.8 0.36 0.0%2003.1-2016.2 3.7 +-1.4 0.51 0.0% 1.7 +-1.2 0.21 0.8% 1.9 +-0.8 0.5 0.0%2003.2-2016.2 3.6 +-1.5 0.48 0.0% 1.5 +-1.3 0.16 2.2% 2.1 +-0.8 0.51 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 4.3 +-1.4 0.62 0.0% 1.9 +-1.3 0.24 0.7% 2.4 +-0.8 0.6 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 4.1 +-1.5 0.57 0.0% 1.8 +-1.4 0.2 1.5% 2.2 +-0.8 0.55 0.0%2005.1-2016.2 4.2 +-1.6 0.56 0.0% 2.1 +-1.5 0.23 1.0% 2.1 +-0.9 0.49 0.0%2005.2-2016.2 3.9 +-1.7 0.5 0.0% 2 +-1.7 0.19 2.1% 1.8 +-0.9 0.42 0.0%2006.1-2016.2 4 +-1.9 0.47 0.0% 2.3 +-1.8 0.22 1.6% 1.7 +-1 0.35 0.2%2006.2-2016.2 3.7 +-2.1 0.41 0.1% 2.3 +-2 0.2 2.4% 1.4 +-1 0.26 1.1%2007.1-2016.2 3.9 +-2.3 0.4 0.2% 2.8 +-2.1 0.26 1.2% 1.1 +-1 0.16 4.8%2007.2-2016.2 3.6 +-2.5 0.33 0.6% 2.6 +-2.4 0.2 3.0% 1 +-1.2 0.11 8.9%2008.1-2016.2 4.2 +-2.7 0.38 0.4% 3.2 +-2.6 0.27 1.5% 1 +-1.3 0.08 13.6%2008.2-2016.2 4.2 +-3.1 0.33 1.0% 3.2 +-2.9 0.23 3.0% 1 +-1.5 0.05 18.6%2009.1-2016.2 5.2 +-3.2 0.44 0.3% 4.2 +-3 0.35 0.9% 1 +-1.7 0.04 22.0%2009.2-2016.2 5.3 +-3.7 0.39 0.8% 4 +-3.5 0.28 2.4% 1.2 +-1.9 0.06 19.7%2010.1-2016.2 6.4 +-4 0.48 0.4% 5 +-3.8 0.36 1.3% 1.4 +-2.2 0.06 19.8%2010.2-2016.2 5.8 +-4.6 0.37 1.6% 5.3 +-4.5 0.33 2.3% 0.5 +-2.3 -0.07 62.1%2011.1-2016.2 7.1 +-5.3 0.44 1.1% 7.2 +-4.6 0.52 0.5% -0.1 +-2.5 -0.1 92.8%2011.2-2016.2 7 +-6.4 0.35 3.2% 6.7 +-5.5 0.41 2.0% 0.3 +-3.1 -0.11 84.0%2012.1-2016.2 9.7 +-6.9 0.54 1.0% 7.7 +-6.8 0.42 2.6% 1.8 +-2.9 0.12 17.8%2012.2-2016.2 8.4 +-8.5 0.38 4.5% 6.5 +-8.4 0.25 10.0% 1.8 +-3.7 0.04 29.2%2013.1-2016.2 10.7 +-10.9 0.44 4.4% 8.8 +-10.7 0.33 8.0% 1.8 +-5 -0.04 41.8%2013.2-2016.2 6.7 +-12.6 0.15 21.4% 6.7 +-14.2 0.09 26.4% 0 +-6 -0.2 99.7%2014.1-2016.2 10.8 +-17.5 0.31 14.4% 10.2 +-20.9 0.17 22.6% 0.6 +-9.1 -0.24 87.1%





T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 3.2 +-1.3 0.45 0.0% 2.2 +-1.1 0.35 0.0% 1 +-1 0.1 4.9%2002.2-2016.2 3.5 +-1.4 0.49 0.0% 2 +-1.2 0.29 0.2% 1.5 +-0.8 0.31 0.1%2003.1-2016.2 3.7 +-1.5 0.5 0.0% 1.8 +-1.3 0.24 0.5% 1.8 +-0.8 0.46 0.0%2003.2-2016.2 3.7 +-1.6 0.47 0.0% 1.7 +-1.4 0.19 1.5% 1.9 +-0.8 0.48 0.0%2004.1-2016.2 4.4 +-1.5 0.61 0.0% 2.1 +-1.4 0.27 0.4% 2.2 +-0.8 0.57 0.0%2004.2-2016.2 4.1 +-1.6 0.56 0.0% 2 +-1.5 0.23 1.0% 2.1 +-0.8 0.52 0.0%2005.1-2016.2 4.2 +-1.7 0.54 0.0% 2.3 +-1.6 0.27 0.6% 1.9 +-0.9 0.46 0.0%2005.2-2016.2 3.9 +-1.8 0.48 0.0% 2.2 +-1.7 0.23 1.4% 1.6 +-0.9 0.38 0.1%2006.1-2016.2 4 +-2 0.46 0.0% 2.5 +-1.9 0.27 1.0% 1.4 +-1 0.3 0.6%2006.2-2016.2 3.8 +-2.2 0.4 0.2% 2.6 +-2.1 0.25 1.5% 1.1 +-1 0.2 2.7%2007.1-2016.2 3.9 +-2.4 0.38 0.3% 3.1 +-2.2 0.32 0.7% 0.8 +-1 0.09 11.1%2007.2-2016.2 3.7 +-2.7 0.32 0.9% 3 +-2.4 0.26 1.8% 0.7 +-1.1 0.05 19.3%2008.1-2016.2 4.3 +-2.9 0.36 0.6% 3.6 +-2.6 0.33 0.9% 0.6 +-1.2 0.02 27.9%2008.2-2016.2 4.3 +-3.3 0.32 1.4% 3.6 +-3 0.29 1.8% 0.6 +-1.4 -0.01 35.9%2009.1-2016.2 5.4 +-3.5 0.43 0.5% 4.7 +-3.1 0.43 0.5% 0.6 +-1.6 -0.02 40.4%2009.2-2016.2 5.4 +-4 0.38 1.1% 4.6 +-3.5 0.36 1.4% 0.8 +-1.8 0 35.0%2010.1-2016.2 6.6 +-4.4 0.47 0.6% 5.6 +-3.8 0.45 0.7% 1 +-2.1 0 33.7%2010.2-2016.2 6 +-5.1 0.37 2.1% 5.9 +-4.5 0.43 1.3% 0.1 +-2 -0.1 95.5%2011.1-2016.2 7.3 +-5.8 0.44 1.6% 8 +-4.4 0.63 0.2% -0.6 +-2.2 -0.06 53.5%2011.2-2016.2 7.2 +-7.1 0.35 4.1% 7.5 +-5.3 0.53 1.0% -0.2 +-2.6 -0.12 83.0%2012.1-2016.2 9.9 +-7.7 0.54 1.5% 8.5 +-6.5 0.54 1.4% 1.3 +-1.7 0.24 10.3%2012.2-2016.2 8.6 +-9.5 0.38 6.1% 7.2 +-8 0.38 6.1% 1.3 +-2.2 0.14 19.4%2013.1-2016.2 10.8 +-12.4 0.43 6.5% 9.3 +-10.2 0.45 5.8% 1.4 +-3 0.08 27.4%2013.2-2016.2 6.7 +-14.7 0.13 26.1% 6.7 +-13.3 0.18 22.2% 0 +-2.7 -0.25 99.3%2014.1-2016.2 10.6 +-23.1 0.26 22.1% 9 +-22 0.18 26.4% 1.4 +-1.9 0.56 9.1%


All Perils Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


With Seasonality



T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y

2002.1-2016.2 2 +-0.6 0.68 0.0% 0.3% 2.5 +-0.8 0.62 0.0% 12.3% -0.4 +-0.7 0.02 21.0% 34.1%2002.2-2016.2 2 +-0.6 0.63 0.0% 0.6% 2.3 +-0.8 0.57 0.0% 20.1% -0.3 +-0.7 0 40.5% 24.5%2003.1-2016.2 1.9 +-0.7 0.62 0.0% 0.6% 2.3 +-0.8 0.55 0.0% 22.5% -0.4 +-0.8 0.01 35.2% 22.4%2003.2-2016.2 1.8 +-0.7 0.56 0.0% 1.1% 2.3 +-0.9 0.51 0.0% 24.9% -0.5 +-0.8 0.02 23.9% 30.6%2004.1-2016.2 1.9 +-0.8 0.56 0.0% 1.9% 2.3 +-1 0.5 0.0% 29.8% -0.5 +-0.9 0 30.0% 34.2%2004.2-2016.2 1.8 +-0.8 0.51 0.0% 2.7% 2.2 +-1 0.44 0.0% 36.6% -0.4 +-1 -0.01 38.4% 33.4%2005.1-2016.2 1.8 +-0.9 0.5 0.0% 3.8% 2.1 +-1.1 0.4 0.1% 33.7% -0.3 +-1.1 -0.05 56.4% 42.6%2005.2-2016.2 1.9 +-1 0.49 0.0% 3.4% 2.2 +-1.2 0.38 0.1% 31.8% -0.3 +-1.2 -0.05 62.7% 43.1%2006.1-2016.2 1.9 +-1.1 0.47 0.1% 3.7% 2.5 +-1.3 0.41 0.1% 44.2% -0.5 +-1.2 -0.01 36.1% 29.4%2006.2-2016.2 1.8 +-1.2 0.4 0.4% 5.3% 2.7 +-1.4 0.44 0.1% 31.8% -0.9 +-1.3 0.04 15.4% 45.2%2007.1-2016.2 1.5 +-1.2 0.38 1.9% 2.7% 2.5 +-1.6 0.39 0.3% 26.6% -1 +-1.4 0.04 14.2% 40.8%2007.2-2016.2 1.3 +-1.3 0.28 5.7% 4.6% 2.3 +-1.7 0.29 1.1% 36.8% -1 +-1.5 0.03 20.0% 41.6%2008.1-2016.2 1.5 +-1.5 0.3 4.2% 8.2% 2.9 +-1.7 0.4 0.3% 61.1% -1.3 +-1.7 0.09 11.8% 30.0%2008.2-2016.2 1.7 +-1.6 0.29 4.2% 7.6% 3.7 +-1.6 0.62 0.0% 22.2% -1.9 +-1.7 0.22 2.7% 49.8%2009.1-2016.2 1.7 +-1.9 0.28 6.6% 10.3% 4.2 +-1.7 0.67 0.0% 38.0% -2.3 +-1.8 0.28 1.7% 35.0%2009.2-2016.2 1.8 +-2.2 0.24 8.7% 11.5% 4.4 +-1.9 0.65 0.0% 31.6% -2.5 +-2.1 0.28 2.4% 42.9%2010.1-2016.2 2.3 +-2.5 0.28 6.2% 20.0% 5.1 +-2 0.7 0.0% 53.5% -2.6 +-2.4 0.22 4.0% 42.6%2010.2-2016.2 2.4 +-2.9 0.2 9.6% 22.6% 5.9 +-2 0.78 0.0% 24.9% -3.3 +-2.6 0.33 2.0% 63.2%2011.1-2016.2 3.2 +-3.4 0.27 6.0% 38.4% 6.9 +-1.9 0.88 0.0% 51.6% -3.5 +-3.2 0.27 3.5% 59.2%2011.2-2016.2 3.2 +-4.1 0.17 10.3% 41.7% 7.2 +-2.2 0.86 0.0% 44.2% -3.7 +-3.8 0.23 6.0% 67.3%2012.1-2016.2 4.6 +-4.8 0.31 5.2% 69.9% 7.2 +-2.9 0.81 0.0% 48.1% -2.4 +-4.4 -0.04 25.2% 97.8%2012.2-2016.2 5.5 +-6 0.31 6.1% 58.6% 8.1 +-3.2 0.84 0.1% 27.3% -2.4 +-5.7 -0.13 34.1% 96.7%2013.1-2016.2 7.9 +-7.2 0.5 3.2% 98.9% 8.7 +-4.3 0.82 0.3% 44.2% -0.7 +-7.4 -0.32 81.3% 68.2%2013.2-2016.2 8.6 +-10.3 0.39 7.3% 91.3% 8.9 +-6.3 0.72 1.4% 48.1% -0.3 +-10.7 -0.46 93.5% 77.0%2014.1-2016.2 8.6 +-18.1 0.14 21.1% 93.5% 5.6 +-5 0.84 3.6% 7.2% 2.9 +-17.1 -0.39 62.4% 53.9%

No Seasonality




T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 2.1 +-0.7 0.57 0.0% 2.5 +-0.8 0.6 0.0% -0.4 +-0.7 0.02 22.8%2002.2-2016.2 2 +-0.7 0.52 0.0% 2.3 +-0.8 0.56 0.0% -0.3 +-0.7 -0.01 40.8%2003.1-2016.2 2 +-0.8 0.5 0.0% 2.3 +-0.8 0.54 0.0% -0.3 +-0.8 -0.01 39.6%2003.2-2016.2 1.8 +-0.8 0.44 0.0% 2.3 +-0.9 0.5 0.0% -0.5 +-0.8 0.02 24.0%2004.1-2016.2 1.9 +-0.8 0.46 0.0% 2.4 +-1 0.5 0.0% -0.4 +-0.9 0 32.8%2004.2-2016.2 1.8 +-0.9 0.41 0.0% 2.2 +-1 0.44 0.0% -0.4 +-1 -0.01 38.3%2005.1-2016.2 1.9 +-1 0.41 0.0% 2.2 +-1.1 0.4 0.0% -0.3 +-1 -0.03 59.9%2005.2-2016.2 1.9 +-1.1 0.39 0.1% 2.2 +-1.2 0.38 0.1% -0.3 +-1.1 -0.04 62.4%2006.1-2016.2 2 +-1.2 0.36 0.2% 2.5 +-1.3 0.42 0.1% -0.5 +-1.2 -0.01 40.6%2006.2-2016.2 1.8 +-1.3 0.29 0.7% 2.7 +-1.4 0.44 0.1% -0.9 +-1.2 0.06 14.9%2007.1-2016.2 1.6 +-1.4 0.22 2.2% 2.6 +-1.6 0.38 0.2% -1 +-1.4 0.06 15.5%2007.2-2016.2 1.3 +-1.5 0.12 8.0% 2.3 +-1.7 0.29 1.0% -1 +-1.5 0.04 19.5%2008.1-2016.2 1.6 +-1.6 0.19 3.9% 2.9 +-1.7 0.43 0.2% -1.2 +-1.7 0.08 13.9%2008.2-2016.2 1.7 +-1.8 0.17 5.7% 3.7 +-1.6 0.61 0.0% -1.9 +-1.6 0.25 2.4%2009.1-2016.2 1.9 +-2 0.18 5.8% 4.2 +-1.6 0.67 0.0% -2.2 +-1.8 0.29 1.9%2009.2-2016.2 1.8 +-2.3 0.13 10.5% 4.4 +-1.9 0.65 0.0% -2.5 +-2 0.29 2.1%2010.1-2016.2 2.5 +-2.5 0.23 4.9% 5.1 +-2 0.72 0.0% -2.5 +-2.4 0.24 4.2%2010.2-2016.2 2.4 +-3 0.15 10.2% 5.9 +-2.1 0.77 0.0% -3.3 +-2.5 0.37 1.6%2011.1-2016.2 3.4 +-3.3 0.29 4.2% 7 +-1.8 0.88 0.0% -3.4 +-3 0.32 3.1%2011.2-2016.2 3.2 +-4 0.2 9.5% 7.2 +-2.1 0.86 0.0% -3.7 +-3.6 0.3 4.7%2012.1-2016.2 4.8 +-4.4 0.39 3.3% 7.3 +-2.7 0.82 0.0% -2.4 +-4 0.09 21.0%2012.2-2016.2 5.5 +-5.5 0.38 4.6% 8.1 +-3.2 0.83 0.0% -2.4 +-5.1 0.03 30.1%2013.1-2016.2 7.9 +-6.1 0.59 1.6% 9 +-3.9 0.83 0.1% -1 +-6.4 -0.14 71.8%2013.2-2016.2 8.6 +-8.5 0.51 4.3% 8.9 +-5.6 0.75 0.8% -0.3 +-9 -0.2 92.7%2014.1-2016.2 8.7 +-13.1 0.36 12.4% 6.8 +-6.8 0.59 4.5% 1.8 +-13.1 -0.21 72.0%


All Perils Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles






T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 2 +-0.7 0.54 0.0% 2.5 +-0.8 0.59 0.0% -0.5 +-0.7 0.05 13.3%2002.2-2016.2 1.8 +-0.7 0.49 0.0% 2.3 +-0.8 0.54 0.0% -0.4 +-0.8 0.01 25.9%2003.1-2016.2 1.8 +-0.8 0.47 0.0% 2.3 +-0.9 0.53 0.0% -0.5 +-0.8 0.01 25.1%2003.2-2016.2 1.6 +-0.8 0.4 0.0% 2.3 +-1 0.49 0.0% -0.6 +-0.8 0.05 13.8%2004.1-2016.2 1.8 +-0.9 0.43 0.0% 2.4 +-1 0.48 0.0% -0.6 +-0.9 0.03 19.9%2004.2-2016.2 1.6 +-0.9 0.37 0.1% 2.2 +-1.1 0.43 0.0% -0.6 +-1 0.02 24.0%2005.1-2016.2 1.7 +-1 0.37 0.1% 2.2 +-1.2 0.38 0.1% -0.4 +-1.1 -0.01 40.8%2005.2-2016.2 1.8 +-1.1 0.34 0.2% 2.2 +-1.3 0.36 0.2% -0.5 +-1.2 -0.02 43.2%2006.1-2016.2 1.8 +-1.2 0.31 0.5% 2.5 +-1.4 0.4 0.1% -0.7 +-1.2 0.02 25.7%2006.2-2016.2 1.6 +-1.3 0.24 1.6% 2.8 +-1.5 0.43 0.1% -1.1 +-1.2 0.12 7.6%2007.1-2016.2 1.4 +-1.4 0.16 4.9% 2.6 +-1.7 0.37 0.4% -1.2 +-1.4 0.12 8.0%2007.2-2016.2 1 +-1.5 0.07 15.7% 2.3 +-1.8 0.28 1.4% -1.2 +-1.5 0.1 10.6%2008.1-2016.2 1.4 +-1.6 0.14 8.0% 3 +-1.8 0.42 0.3% -1.5 +-1.7 0.15 7.2%2008.2-2016.2 1.4 +-1.8 0.11 11.0% 3.8 +-1.7 0.6 0.0% -2.3 +-1.6 0.36 0.8%2009.1-2016.2 1.6 +-2 0.12 11.0% 4.3 +-1.8 0.67 0.0% -2.6 +-1.7 0.41 0.6%2009.2-2016.2 1.5 +-2.4 0.07 18.2% 4.5 +-2 0.65 0.0% -2.9 +-1.9 0.42 0.7%2010.1-2016.2 2.2 +-2.6 0.17 8.8% 5.3 +-2.1 0.72 0.0% -2.9 +-2.2 0.37 1.6%2010.2-2016.2 2 +-3 0.1 16.6% 6 +-2.2 0.78 0.0% -3.8 +-2.3 0.53 0.4%2011.1-2016.2 3 +-3.3 0.24 7.0% 7.2 +-1.8 0.89 0.0% -3.9 +-2.7 0.48 1.0%2011.2-2016.2 2.8 +-4.1 0.16 14.1% 7.4 +-2.2 0.87 0.0% -4.3 +-3.3 0.46 1.8%2012.1-2016.2 4.4 +-4.4 0.38 4.7% 7.5 +-2.8 0.84 0.0% -2.9 +-3.4 0.28 8.3%2012.2-2016.2 5.1 +-5.6 0.38 6.0% 8.3 +-3.3 0.85 0.1% -2.9 +-4.4 0.19 15.7%2013.1-2016.2 7.6 +-5.6 0.67 1.5% 9.1 +-4.3 0.84 0.2% -1.4 +-5.1 -0.1 52.0%2013.2-2016.2 8.6 +-8 0.63 3.7% 8.9 +-6.2 0.76 1.4% -0.3 +-7.1 -0.24 90.3%2014.1-2016.2 9.5 +-13.4 0.54 9.8% 6.4 +-7.2 0.65 6.1% 2.9 +-7.6 0.12 30.4%


Uninsured Auto Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles


With SeasonalityLoss Cost Severity Frequency


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit


T Pval Seasonalit

y

2002.1-2016.2 1.6 +-3.3 0.03 31.4% 20.4% 1.7 +-2.1 0.06 11.7% 29.3% -0.1 +-2.2 -0.04 95.7% 38.5%2002.2-2016.2 2.3 +-3.4 0.07 17.7% 13.9% 2.2 +-2.2 0.13 4.7% 18.1% 0.1 +-2.3 -0.04 95.3% 36.7%2003.1-2016.2 3.2 +-3.5 0.11 7.2% 22.9% 2.9 +-2.2 0.21 1.0% 31.3% 0.2 +-2.5 -0.05 85.2% 42.7%2003.2-2016.2 4.1 +-3.6 0.19 2.5% 12.8% 3.6 +-2.2 0.31 0.2% 16.9% 0.5 +-2.7 -0.04 69.4% 37.0%2004.1-2016.2 5.2 +-3.8 0.26 0.8% 21.9% 3.6 +-2.4 0.29 0.5% 18.8% 1.5 +-2.7 -0.01 25.3% 61.4%2004.2-2016.2 6.5 +-3.7 0.39 0.1% 8.8% 3.8 +-2.6 0.28 0.5% 17.4% 2.6 +-2.5 0.14 4.2% 28.8%2005.1-2016.2 6.9 +-4 0.4 0.1% 12.8% 3.7 +-2.9 0.26 1.2% 17.6% 3.1 +-2.7 0.18 2.1% 42.4%2005.2-2016.2 8 +-4.2 0.46 0.0% 7.1% 4.1 +-3.1 0.27 1.1% 14.8% 3.8 +-2.8 0.25 0.9% 28.7%2006.1-2016.2 8.3 +-4.6 0.46 0.1% 10.0% 4.2 +-3.4 0.26 1.7% 18.1% 4 +-3.1 0.25 1.2% 35.0%2006.2-2016.2 9.2 +-5 0.47 0.1% 7.5% 3.9 +-3.7 0.19 3.8% 23.1% 5.1 +-3.1 0.38 0.2% 16.9%2007.1-2016.2 10.2 +-5.5 0.5 0.1% 12.9% 4.5 +-4.1 0.21 3.1% 32.5% 5.5 +-3.4 0.4 0.3% 24.2%2007.2-2016.2 10.4 +-6.1 0.45 0.1% 14.0% 4.2 +-4.6 0.13 6.4% 38.9% 6 +-3.8 0.4 0.3% 20.2%2008.1-2016.2 11.7 +-6.8 0.48 0.1% 22.5% 3.6 +-5 0.09 14.7% 33.1% 7.8 +-3.5 0.59 0.0% 40.6%2008.2-2016.2 13.8 +-7.1 0.56 0.0% 11.4% 4.3 +-5.6 0.11 11.7% 27.8% 9.1 +-3.5 0.69 0.0% 18.8%2009.1-2016.2 10.9 +-6.8 0.56 0.3% 3.3% 1.3 +-4.7 0.21 56.2% 4.1% 9.5 +-4 0.67 0.0% 26.2%2009.2-2016.2 9.8 +-7.6 0.44 1.2% 5.7% 1.2 +-5.3 0.16 62.9% 5.7% 8.5 +-4.2 0.58 0.1% 40.4%2010.1-2016.2 9.9 +-9 0.42 2.7% 8.0% 0.4 +-6.1 0.18 88.4% 5.5% 9.4 +-4.9 0.6 0.1% 58.1%2010.2-2016.2 7.3 +-9.4 0.24 10.4% 14.2% -1.2 +-6.6 0.11 69.3% 9.9% 8.6 +-5.5 0.48 0.5% 73.0%2011.1-2016.2 6.8 +-11.5 0.21 19.6% 16.7% -2.8 +-7.5 0.18 42.3% 7.2% 10 +-6.5 0.51 0.5% 96.3%2011.2-2016.2 8.3 +-13.9 0.2 18.8% 16.3% -0.8 +-8.7 0.25 83.3% 4.9% 9.2 +-7.8 0.38 2.1% 93.8%2012.1-2016.2 4.3 +-15.8 0.21 53.4% 10.6% -4.7 +-8.5 0.5 24.2% 1.4% 9.4 +-10 0.28 5.3% 92.2%2012.2-2016.2 3.9 +-20.4 0.1 64.6% 15.6% -2.5 +-10.3 0.56 57.8% 1.4% 6.6 +-11.3 0.05 19.0% 67.0%2013.1-2016.2 3.4 +-28.8 0.05 76.5% 22.0% -2 +-14.6 0.47 74.6% 3.6% 5.5 +-15.7 -0.19 39.5% 80.4%2013.2-2016.2 0.7 +-40.4 -0.15 96.2% 33.5% -2 +-21.2 0.39 80.2% 7.3% 2.8 +-21 -0.38 72.4% 68.5%2014.1-2016.2 19.8 +-60 0.01 32.0% 70.0% 8.6 +-26.4 0.5 35.7% 14.1% 10.3 +-33.1 -0.1 36.9% 42.4%

No SeasonalityLoss Cost Severity Frequency



T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 1.7 +-3.3 0.01 28.5% 1.7 +-2.1 0.06 10.4% 0 +-2.2 -0.04 99.8%2002.2-2016.2 2.3 +-3.5 0.03 18.6% 2.2 +-2.2 0.1 5.0% 0.1 +-2.3 -0.04 95.3%2003.1-2016.2 3.3 +-3.6 0.09 6.3% 3 +-2.2 0.21 0.8% 0.3 +-2.5 -0.04 81.2%2003.2-2016.2 4.1 +-3.7 0.15 2.8% 3.6 +-2.3 0.28 0.3% 0.5 +-2.7 -0.03 69.2%2004.1-2016.2 5.3 +-3.8 0.24 0.7% 3.7 +-2.5 0.27 0.4% 1.5 +-2.6 0.02 23.1%2004.2-2016.2 6.5 +-3.9 0.33 0.2% 3.8 +-2.7 0.25 0.6% 2.6 +-2.5 0.13 4.3%2005.1-2016.2 7.2 +-4.2 0.36 0.1% 3.8 +-2.9 0.23 1.1% 3.2 +-2.6 0.2 1.8%2005.2-2016.2 8 +-4.4 0.39 0.1% 4.1 +-3.2 0.22 1.3% 3.8 +-2.8 0.25 0.9%2006.1-2016.2 8.6 +-4.8 0.4 0.1% 4.4 +-3.5 0.23 1.4% 4.1 +-3.1 0.25 1.0%2006.2-2016.2 9.2 +-5.3 0.4 0.1% 3.9 +-3.8 0.16 3.9% 5.1 +-3.2 0.35 0.3%2007.1-2016.2 10.6 +-5.7 0.46 0.1% 4.7 +-4.1 0.21 2.5% 5.7 +-3.4 0.38 0.2%2007.2-2016.2 10.4 +-6.3 0.41 0.2% 4.2 +-4.5 0.14 6.1% 6 +-3.8 0.37 0.3%2008.1-2016.2 12.1 +-6.8 0.46 0.1% 3.8 +-5 0.09 12.2% 8 +-3.4 0.6 0.0%2008.2-2016.2 13.8 +-7.5 0.51 0.1% 4.3 +-5.7 0.1 11.9% 9.1 +-3.5 0.67 0.0%2009.1-2016.2 11.7 +-7.8 0.41 0.4% 1.8 +-5.3 -0.03 47.0% 9.8 +-4 0.66 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 9.8 +-8.5 0.3 2.1% 1.2 +-6 -0.06 66.7% 8.5 +-4.2 0.59 0.0%2010.1-2016.2 10.9 +-9.8 0.29 2.6% 1.2 +-6.9 -0.07 72.0% 9.6 +-4.6 0.62 0.0%2010.2-2016.2 7.3 +-10 0.13 12.2% -1.2 +-7.2 -0.08 71.9% 8.6 +-5.2 0.53 0.3%2011.1-2016.2 7.9 +-12 0.11 15.5% -1.8 +-8.5 -0.08 64.2% 10 +-6 0.56 0.3%2011.2-2016.2 8.3 +-14.7 0.07 21.3% -0.8 +-10.4 -0.11 86.2% 9.2 +-7.2 0.45 1.4%2012.1-2016.2 6.5 +-17.8 -0.03 41.0% -2.6 +-12.4 -0.09 63.9% 9.4 +-9 0.37 3.7%2012.2-2016.2 3.9 +-21.9 -0.11 67.6% -2.5 +-16 -0.12 72.3% 6.6 +-10.3 0.15 16.0%2013.1-2016.2 6.9 +-29.8 -0.1 57.6% 1.6 +-20.9 -0.16 85.3% 5.1 +-13.3 -0.01 36.8%2013.2-2016.2 0.7 +-38 -0.2 96.3% -2 +-27.6 -0.19 85.6% 2.8 +-17.8 -0.16 69.6%2014.1-2016.2 22 +-44.7 0.22 19.8% 13.4 +-30.4 0.13 25.6% 7.6 +-26.3 -0.06 45.0%


Uninsured Auto Province of Nova ScotiaPrivate Passenger Vehicles






T Pval Time

2002.1-2016.2 1.2 +-3.2 -0.02 45.8% 1.4 +-2.1 0.03 18.2% -0.2 +-2.2 -0.04 84.3%2002.2-2016.2 1.7 +-3.3 0 30.9% 1.8 +-2.2 0.07 8.9% -0.2 +-2.4 -0.04 89.6%2003.1-2016.2 2.7 +-3.4 0.06 11.1% 2.6 +-2.1 0.18 1.5% 0.1 +-2.5 -0.04 95.9%2003.2-2016.2 3.5 +-3.5 0.12 4.9% 3.2 +-2.1 0.26 0.5% 0.3 +-2.7 -0.04 83.0%2004.1-2016.2 4.6 +-3.6 0.22 1.1% 3.3 +-2.3 0.25 0.7% 1.3 +-2.6 0 31.4%2004.2-2016.2 5.8 +-3.6 0.32 0.2% 3.4 +-2.5 0.23 1.0% 2.3 +-2.5 0.11 6.6%2005.1-2016.2 6.5 +-3.8 0.36 0.2% 3.4 +-2.7 0.21 1.7% 3 +-2.7 0.17 2.8%2005.2-2016.2 7.3 +-4.1 0.4 0.1% 3.6 +-3 0.21 1.9% 3.5 +-2.8 0.22 1.5%2006.1-2016.2 7.9 +-4.4 0.41 0.1% 3.9 +-3.3 0.21 2.1% 3.9 +-3.1 0.23 1.6%2006.2-2016.2 8.4 +-4.9 0.41 0.1% 3.4 +-3.6 0.15 5.5% 4.8 +-3.2 0.33 0.4%2007.1-2016.2 9.8 +-5.1 0.49 0.0% 4.2 +-3.8 0.2 3.2% 5.4 +-3.5 0.37 0.4%2007.2-2016.2 9.6 +-5.7 0.44 0.2% 3.7 +-4.2 0.13 7.7% 5.7 +-3.8 0.36 0.5%2008.1-2016.2 11.3 +-6 0.51 0.1% 3.3 +-4.7 0.08 14.8% 7.7 +-3.3 0.61 0.0%2008.2-2016.2 13 +-6.4 0.58 0.0% 3.8 +-5.3 0.09 13.5% 8.9 +-3.4 0.69 0.0%2009.1-2016.2 11.1 +-6.6 0.49 0.2% 1.4 +-4.7 -0.04 52.7% 9.5 +-3.8 0.69 0.0%2009.2-2016.2 9.3 +-7 0.38 1.1% 0.9 +-5.4 -0.07 72.2% 8.3 +-4 0.63 0.0%2010.1-2016.2 10.5 +-8.1 0.4 1.2% 1 +-6.3 -0.08 74.0% 9.5 +-4.3 0.67 0.0%2010.2-2016.2 7.3 +-7.9 0.25 5.8% -1.2 +-6.4 -0.08 68.5% 8.6 +-4.9 0.59 0.2%2011.1-2016.2 8.4 +-9.5 0.26 6.4% -1.6 +-7.7 -0.09 66.0% 10.2 +-5.5 0.65 0.2%2011.2-2016.2 9.7 +-11.7 0.25 8.0% 0 +-9.4 -0.12 99.2% 9.7 +-6.7 0.55 0.8%2012.1-2016.2 9.1 +-14.8 0.14 17.2% -1.2 +-11.7 -0.13 82.1% 10.4 +-8.6 0.5 2.0%2012.2-2016.2 8.7 +-19.8 0.03 30.6% 0.4 +-15.7 -0.17 95.0% 8.2 +-10.6 0.29 9.6%2013.1-2016.2 17.9 +-25.4 0.33 10.5% 9.2 +-17.7 0.14 21.8% 7.9 +-15.4 0.13 22.7%2013.2-2016.2 22 +-44.7 0.22 19.8% 13.4 +-30.4 0.13 25.6% 7.6 +-26.3 -0.06 45.0%2014.1-2016.2 22 +-44.7 0.22 19.8% 13.4 +-30.4 0.13 25.6% 7.6 +-26.3 -0.06 45.0%


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