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NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report John O’Connor November 15, 2011 Nebraska Wind Conference

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NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report. Nebraska Wind Conference. John O’Connor November 15, 2011. Presentation Overview. Wind Development Snapshot World view United States view Nebraska view NPPD Wind Development Progress Report. World vie w. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

John O’ConnorNovember 15, 2011

Nebraska Wind Conference

Page 2: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

2

Wind Development Snapshot◦ World view◦ United States view◦ Nebraska view

NPPD Wind Development Progress Report

Presentation Overview

Page 3: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

TOP 10 CUMULATIVE CAPACITY DEC 2010 TOP 10 NEW INSTALLED CAPACITY JAN-DEC.2010

Source: Annual Market Update 2010, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

World view

Page 4: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

World view

Source: Annual Market Update 2010, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

Page 5: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

World view

Source: Annual Market Update 2010, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

Page 6: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

U.S. Annual and Cumulative Wind Power Capacity

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Annual Capacity Installations (MW) Cumulative Capacity Installations (MW)

Capaci

ty (

MW

)

There have been 3,360 MW of wind projects installed in the U.S. through the third quarter of 2011, up 74% from the first three quarters of 2010. The third quarter saw the commissioning of 1,204 MW, a 79% increase from the 671 MW installed during the third quarter of 2010. These projects were installed in 13 states including Colorado, with over 500 MW installed, and Ohio, which passed the 100 MW of total wind capacity threshold. Throughout 2011, over 45 projects have been brought online in 25 different states.

The total U.S. installed wind capacity now stands at 43,641 MW.

Source: AWEA Third Quarter 2011 Market Report

United States view

Page 7: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

U.S. Wind Power Installations by Quarter

2008 2009 2010 20110

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1,621

3,080

541

1,1181,294

1,219

709

1,033

1,331

1,585

671

1,204

4,105 4,113

3,296

1Q 2Q

3Q 4Q

Capa

city

(MW

United States view

Source: AWEA Third Quarter 2011 Market Report

Page 8: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

Wind Power Capacity Installations, Top 20 States

Wisconsin

Idaho

West Virginia

New Mexico

Pennsylvania

South Dakota

Kansas

Indiana

New York

Wyoming

North Dakota

Oklahoma

Colorado

Oregon

Washington

Illinois

Minnesota

California

Iowa

Texas

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000

Through 20101Q 20112Q 20113Q 2011

Capacity Installed (MW)

Most Capacity Installed during 3Q 2011

Capacity (MW)

Colorado 501.00 Minnesota 163.00 Oklahoma 129.60 West Virginia 97.60 Texas 88.20

Fastest Growing States during 3Q 2011

Growth Rate

Ohio 66.7% Colorado 38.6% West Virginia 22.7% Maine 22.5% Michigan 12.6%

United States view

Source: AWEA Third Quarter 2011 Market Report

Page 9: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

U.S. Wind Power Installations by StateUnited States view

Source: AWEA Third Quarter 2011 Market Report

Page 10: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

Regional Installation & Construction Trends

United States view

Source: AWEA Third Quarter 2011 Market Report

Page 11: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

11

Nebraska viewAnnual Potential for 48 States – 36,919,551 GWHs

1. Texas 6,527,850 11. New Mexico 1,644,970

2. Kansas 3,646,590 12. Colorado 1,288,490

3. Nebraska 3,540,370 13. Missouri 810,619

4. South Dakota 3,411,690 14. Illinois 763,529

5. Montana 3,228,620 15. Indiana 443,912

6. North Dakota 2,983,750 16. Wisconsin 300,136

7. Iowa 2,026,340 17. Michigan 169,221

8. Wyoming 1,944,340 18. Ohio 151,881

9. Oklahoma 1,788,910 19. California 105,646

10. Minnesota 1,679,480 20. Oregon 80,855

Nat’l Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) – Feb 2010

Page 12: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

12

Nebraska view

Nat’l Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) – Feb 2010

Installed capacity by state (through 2010)

Ranking State MW

1 Texas 10,085

2 Iowa 3,675

3 California 3,177

25 Nebraska 293

Page 13: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

1

YEAR MWG135713.ZIP

Springview

5Ainsworth 6Bloomfield

11Crofton

12 Broken Bow 3Valley 4 Kimball

PROJECT

Wind Development in Nebraska

7Humboldt

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

8&10Petersburg

PARTICIPANTS

REVISION November, 2011

80 METER WIND OVERLAY

OWNER

2Lincoln

Total MW~ 456

12

NPPD, LES, MEAN, GI, KBR, Auburn

LES

OPPD, Valmont

MEAN

NPPD, OPPD, JEA, MEAN, GI

NPPD, OPPD, MEAN, LES, GI

OPPD

NPPD, LES, MEAN, GI

NPPD, OPPD, LES, MEAN, GI, KBR*

OPPD

NPPD (Planned Participants OPPD, LES, MEAN)

NPPD (Planned Participants OPPD, LES, MEAN, GI)

1&9

* Denotes Transmission

Springview Wind Energy

Salt Valley

Valley

Kimball

Ainsworth Wind Energy

Elkhorn Ridge Wind, LLC

Flat Water Wind Farm, LLC

Laredo Ridge Wind Farm

Springview II/Bluestem, LLC

TPW Petersburg, LLC

Crofton Bluffs Wind Farm

Broken Bow Wind, LLC

1998

1998 and 1999

2001

2002

2005

2009

2010

2011

2011

2011

2012 (Scheduled)

2012 (Scheduled)

Retired

1.32

.66

10.5

60

80

60

80

3

40.5

40

80

NPPD

LES

OPPD

MEAN

NPPD

Edison Mission

Gestamp Wind N.A.

Edison Mission

Bluestem, LLC

Third Planet Wind

Edison Mission

Edison Mission

Page 14: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NPPD Share MW's

31.40181

0 0 0 39.95 0 64 67 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 98

NPPD Accumu-lated MW's

31.40181

31.40181

31.40181

31.40181

71.35181

71.35181

135.35181

202.35181

202.35181

202.35181

202.35181

202.35181

302.35181

302.35181

302.35181

400.35181

% to-ward Board goal

0.0784355389825763

0.0784355389825763

0.0784355389825763

0.0784355389825763

0.17822277361

5036

0.17822277361

5036

0.33808217327

655

0.50543498229

7195

0.50543498229

7195

0.50543498229

7195

0.50543498229

7195

0.50543498229

7195

0.75521529426

8309

0.75521529426

8309

0.75521529426

8309

1

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER DISTRICTWind Generation Addition Plan to Meet 10% Renewable Goal by 2020

Nam

epla

te M

W

(2)

▲430*

(3, 4) (5,6)

(7)

NPPD Involved Wind Projects(1) Ainsworth Wind Energy Facility(2) Elkhorn Ridge(3) Laredo Ridge(4) Bluestem, LLC(5) Crofton Bluffs(6) Broken Bow(7) RFP 4(8) RFP 5

Project size (Total MWs)

60 80 80 3 40 80 200 200

(1)

(8)

*Updated 11/14/2011

10% Board GoalEstablished Feb 2008

Actual amount acquired by NPPD to be adjusted according to most recent load forecast.

NPPD does not plan to add more wind generation before 2017

Page 15: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

15

Things to ponder regarding future wind projects◦ Continue with Power Purchase Agreement or NPPD

ownership? What is the future of Production Tax Credits (PTCs)?

Same impact as the current PTC program?

◦ What will EPA regulations looks like?

◦ How will the compressed air (energy storage) project evolve?

◦ Strong desire to work with other utilities on participation

NPPD Wind Development…

Page 16: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

NPPD Wind Development…

Page 17: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

17

Elkhorn Ridge Crofton Bluffs Laredo Ridge Broken Bow Springview II**

80 MW 40 MW 80 MW 80 MW 3 MW

Share % Share* % Share % Share* % Share %

NPPD 40 50.0 20 50.0 61 76.3 47 58.7 3 100

OPPD 25 31.3 13 32.5 0 0.0 18 22.5

MEAN 8 10.0 4 10.0 8 10.0 4 5.0

LES 6 7.5 3 7.5 10 12.5 10 12.5 Grand Island 1 1.3 0 0.0 1 1.3 1 1.3

NPPD Wind Development

*Planned**OPPD, MEAN, LES, Grand Island and KBR Rural PPD participate in the project

Page 18: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

18

NPPD Wind Development

*Planned

Elkhorn Ridge Crofton Bluffs Laredo Ridge Broken Bow Springview II

Turbine Mfg.

Size - MWNumber

Vestas

327

Vestas

3-22-18

General Electric

1.554

General Electric*

1.650

Vensys

1.52

In Service 3/2009 12/2012* 2/2011 12/2012* 10/2011

CommentsGearboxes

being replacedPlanned to have two

different size turbines

(2-3MW; 18-2MW)

In service Potential for expansion

Direct Drive

First Katana Summit

(Columbus, NE) Towers in

Nebraska

Page 19: NPPD’s Wind Development Progress Report

19

Questions?