Idaho Water SupplyNRCS Snow Survey

Julie KoeberleJanuary 13, 2011

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*Recap of last year*Off to a good start!*Fall precipitation*Current snowpack*Streamflow forecasts

'°'NRCS United States Department of Agriculture Natura Resources Conservation Service

Idaho Water Supply Outlook Report January 1, 2011

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Snow draped trees against azure skies near Mores Creek Summit in the Boise Basin, December 21 , 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Wat

er C

onte

nt In

ches

2010 Mountain Snowpack (inches)CLEARWATER RIVER BASIN

Current Average Maximum Minimum

Boise River near Boise 2010-2011 Stream fl ow Forecasts

and Observed Flows

2200

2000

1800

1600

., 1400 Q)

: 1200 I

Q)

~ 1000 c( e 800 e e '!"'

600

400

200

2010 A1n 1 Snow 67%

A1)r-Jun Pree 131% Cool wet, spring

A1>r-Jul Flow 1128 K AF, 80%

Aver~ge ·14·10

1082

D90% E xceedance Fest 170% E xceedance Fest 150% E xceedance Fest D30% Exceedance Fest 1 10% E xceedance Fest • Obse1Ved Flow

Average 1410

Jan-10 Feb-10 M.u-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 M.u-11

Forecast Month and Period: Jan, Feb, Mar and A1>r forecast Apr.Jul, May forecast May.Jul

'°1 NRCS r. 11,r~, 111 ,

,P.111(1\' la;,,, ~. "\l;f

1082

M.1y-11

Snake River near Heise 2010-2011 Streamflow Forecasts

and Observed Flows

090% Exceedance Fest • 70% Exceedance Fest 150% Exceedance Fest 030% Exceedance Fest • 10% E xceedance Fest I Observed Flow

'°'NRCS ltt1 tutal Kc~uurc,~ C OBH'l'iill on S.l'IYtce

5000 ~ -----------------------~

4600 -------

4200 -------

2010 Mar 1 and A1)r 1 Snow 55%

May 1 Snow 62% A1>r-Jun Pree 155%

A 3560 Apr-Jul Flow 73%, 2600KAF 3800 __ ve_r(_~g_e ---------------

4> 3400 --------------3-'170 ___ _

(U

IL 3000 ----• ~ u 2600 ---­i( g 2200 0 ""' 1800

1400

1000 Jan-10 Feb-10 M.u-10 A1)r-10 M.1y-10 Jan-11

Forecast Month and Period: Jan, Feb, Mar and A1H forecast Aur .Jul, Mav forecast May.Jul

Avera( e 3 560

3'170

Feb-11 Mar-11 M1Y-11

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

.; 5.00 .,

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Middle Fork of the Salmon River Hydrograph

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Salmon-Challis National Forest Readings are taken near Middle Fork Lodge

- 2010 ------- 2009 - 2008 --2007 --2006

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Hazard Ratings: Below 2 ft. = Low Boating Hazard 2-5 ft. = Moderate 5-6 ft. = Hazardous 6-7 ft.= Extremely Hazardous

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Above 7 ft. = BEYOND Extremely Hazardous

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FT - > CFS 80= 13900 7.0 = 10500 6.0 = 7650 5.0 = 5280 4.0 = 3370 3.0= 1900 2.0= 860 1.5 = 450 (approximates)

Note: This hydrograph is a very general guide for predicting flows. The lines merely connect daily flow readings. Considerable fluctuation can occur daily, especially on very warm days and after high-intensity rain storms.

Idaho SNOTEL Water Vear (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation °/o of Normal

Northern Panhandle

Region

-mm·

900 Owyhee

USDA

~NRCS The water year to date precipitation percent of normal represents the accumulated precipitation found at selected SNOT EL sites in or near- the basin compared to the average value fur- those sites on this day. Data based on the fi r st reading ofthe day (typically 00:00).

.Jan 13, 2011 Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation Basin-wide Percent of 1971- 2000 Normal

unavailable

50- 69%,

70 - 89°/o

90 - 109%

110 - 129 %

1 3 0 - 149%

> =150%

.,.. Data unavailable a t tirne of posting or measurernent is n o t repr e sentat i v e at thi s tirne of year

Provisional Data Subject: t:o Revision

-=--=-===::::11----====----• Miles 0 10 20 40 60 BO

Little

100

Henrys Fork, Teton

Snake Basin above

Palisades

Willow, Blackfoot, Portneuf

Prepared by the USDA/N R C S National \/\.ater and Climate C e nte r Portland, Oregon http ://vvvvvv.wcc .nr-cs.usda.gov/gis/ Based on data from http://vvvvw.wcc.nrcs .usda.gov/r-eports.l Science contact: Jim.Marron@::>or.usda .gov 503 414 304 7

Mountain Snowpack as of .January 1, 2011

L e gend

P e r c ent of Average > 180

1 50 - 1 80

1 30 - 1 49

1 10 - 1 29

90 - 109

70 - 89

50 - 69

25 - 49

< 25

P r epared by U S D A , Nat ural Resources Conservation Service N ational VVater and C l imate Center Portland, Oregon h ttp://www. vvcc. n r es. usda. gov

Mountain Snowpack as of .January 1, 2010

Legend

p e rcent

> 150

130-150

110 - 129

90 - 109

70 - 89

50- 69

<50

N o Survey

Prepared by USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service National VVater and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www. vvcc. n res. usda. gov

---~ --

SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SVVE) Records

Jan 01, 2011

Current Snow> Water (SVVE) Equivalent Records

+ New High

+ NearHigh

o Non- Record

New Low

Near Low

Gl snow free

.A.natysis indudes sites vi,,il:h more than 20 yea rs of historical data. 'Near" record means that one other year of the per iod of record i s more extreme .

USDA .-..........

Provisional Data Sut,Ject to Revision

Oo

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OOo

0

'°-, NRCS Prep a red by the US D AJN RCS Nati onal VVater and C Ii mate Center Portland, Oregon http:llwww.V1.ec.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/ Based on data tr-om ftp: /tftp .Vl.Cc.nrcs. usd a .gov/data 1\1\eter /vt.cslgi s/data Science contact: Tom.Pagano@por.usda.gov 503 414 3010

0

0

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Idaho SNOTEL Current Snovv Water Equivalent (SWE) 0 /o of Normal

l.JSDA

Northern Panhandle

Region €S .

=~ Spokane

~ ©iJ ~

'om> Owyhee

"=}., NRCS The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the current snovv water equivalent found at selected SNOT EL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00) .

.Jan 13, 2011 Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Basin-wide Percent of 1971-2000 Normal

unavailable

50- 69%,

70- 89%,

90 - 109%,

110 - 129%,

130 - 149%,

>=150°/o

.,.. Data unavai l able at time o f p os ti ng or measurement is not repre s e ntative at thi s tim e of y e a r

Provisional Dat:a Subject: t:o Revision

-=--=-====-----=====---- Miles 0 10 20 40 60 BO 100

Henrys ~rk,

Teton

----9nake Basin above

Palisades

-+-.... ¥1- llow, Blackfoot, Portneuf

Prepared by the USDA/N RCS National \/\klter and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http ://vvvvvv .wcc .nrcs.u sda .gov/ gis/ Based on data from http://vvvvw.vvcc.nrcs .usda.gov/reports.l Science contact: Jim.Marron@:>or.usda.gov 503 414 304 7

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oil -C: .. ii :> ·3 er w -.. -.. 3: 3: 0 C:

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Snake Basin above Palisades 2011 Snowpack Graph (17 Sites)

- sw E Average --PrecAverage - sw E 2011 - Prec2011

- SWEProjected - Prec Projected - SWE2010 - Prec2010

40 +-~~~~~+--~~+--~~1---~--+-~~--+-~~--+-~~--~~-+-~~-+-~~-+-~

As of Monday, January 10, 201 1:

35

30

25

20

15

10

SWE Percent of Average: 114 SWE Percent of Seasona'lPeak: 56

+----Per-eent-Needed-t:o-Reaeh1Seas,onal-S·WE-P-eak+-81---r---r---1-:::::~ 1 ::::~ 1.___..~,---

o~ ~ ~ :__~~~~~L-~ L-~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ --~l..-~..l-----1-oct 1-Nov 1-0ec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-M ar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

Mores Creek Summit SNOTEL El. 6100 '°' NRCS Snow Water Equivalent Natural Resources

45 - . . ·ce --Average SWE

40 • I- --2009SWE - --2010SWE C: 35 • I-Cll - 201 1 SWE ~ ' - ~ .. C: 30 0

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Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL El. 7850 '°' NRCS I Snow Water Equivalent Natural RHourcH

i so C()fn,•tv•t,oo '\l("rv1<-~

- Average SWE ! 45 · - 2009 SWE ~

c 40 - 2010SWE i QI - 2011 SWE "' ! c Js

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BASIN or REGIONSWSIValue

Most Recent Year With Similar SWSI Value

Agricultural Water Supply Shortage May Occur When

SWSI is Less Than

CLEARWATER 0.3 2006 NA

SALMON -0.1 2010 NA

WEISER 0.2 2010 NA

PAYETTE 0.2 2008 NA

BOISE 1.2 2008 -1.8

BIG WOOD 1.2 1996 0.1

LITTLE WOOD 1.0 2005 -1.9

BIG LOST 0.6 2009 0.0

LITTLE LOST 0.2 2010 0.6

HENRYS FORK 1.6 2006 -3.4

TETON 1.6 2008 NA

SNAKE (HEISE) 1.4 2009 -1.8

OWYHEE 2.2 1998 -3.5

OAKLEY 0.4 2000 -0.5

SALMON FALLS 2.4 2006 -1.2

BRUNEAU 3.3 2006 NA

BEAR RIVER -0.6 2001 -2.8

IDAHO SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX (SWSI) As of January 1, 2011

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|99% 87% 75% 63% 50% 37% 25% 13% 1%-----------------------------------------------------------------------|Much | Below | Near Normal | Above | Much | |Below | Normal | Water Supply | Normal | Above |

IDAHO RESERVOIR STORAGENRCS Usable Contents December 31, 2010

Reservoir or Basin

Percent of Capacity

December 31, 2010

Percent of Average

December 31, 2010

Percent of Average

December 31, 2009

Coeur d'Alene 56 122 38Dworshak 67 94 96Payette (2) 63 100 97Boise (3) 56 100 97Magic 42 101 94Little Wood 54 116 133Mackay 72 135 135Henrys Fork (3) 79 100 108Jackson & Palisades (2) 65 97 112Blackfoot 57 92 89American Falls 63 107 122Oakley 21 60 86Salmon Falls 20 70 80Owyhee 30 54 40Bear Lake 36 57 58

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January 1 Boise Basin Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) Boise River near Boise & Anderson, Arrowrock, Lucky Peak

3750

I Streamfl ow Arlr-Sep

I Reservoir 31-Dec

3500 i Ad e<1 u ate I rri g ati on Water Sur> rdy Above 1,500 KAF 3250

3000

2750

2500

2250

2000

1750

1500

1250

1000

750

500

250

0

Years

~ NRCS N.i1ur ~ R•·~0u1C,.., ( D11',l'IVll l n>11 \r•v ·

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-.... - .... -.... - .... -.... - .... -

"" ""' ""' ""' "" ""' ""' ""' ""' "" QQQQQ NNNNN

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

-< 1991 ('I)

m 1992 -0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2011-90 %, 2011-70% 2011-50~··0 2011-30~,-::. 2011-10 %,

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Spring and Summer Streamflow Forecasts as of January 1, 2011

Percent 1 971 to 2000 Nor-ma I

> 180

150 - 180

1 30 - 149

110 - 129

90 - 109

70 -89

50 -69

25-49

< 25

Prepared by USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service National VVater and C l imate Center Portland, Oregon http ://www. vvcc. n res. usda. gov

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Created 12:03 Jan 12 2011 Snake River ne Heise (ID) : Apr.Jul Volume 150

140 /"

130 r ~ r' . - -

cu 120 E ... 0 110 z - ~~ I . - -0 q 100 ..... .

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90 .... 0

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50 1-0ct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1.Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1.Jun 1.Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

_ G,1itln11 ce fest ~~ 1101·1,,

--Guidance Skill {r2)

'°'NRCS This is an automated product based solely on SNOTEL data, provisional data are subject to change.

This procl.lct lso stotlstlcolly bosed g uldance forecosl combining Indices of sno\/\l)ack ond precipitation. Ski 11 is defined as the corr et at ion ( squared) betv-.een the guidance and observed during calibration.

This procllct does not consider clima1e infonnation such as El Nino or short range \11.eather forecasts, or o variety of otherl$ctorsconsldered In the oNdei forecosts. Thlsprocl.lct I snot meontto replete

or super cede the official forecasts produced in coordination Wththe NationalWeatherService. Science Contact: Jim .Marron@por.usda.govwww.\l\Cc.nrcs.usda.gov/\llm/daily _forecasts.html

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