ns4054 fall term 2014 climate change, energy and security
TRANSCRIPT
NS4054 Fall Term 2014
Climate Change, Energy and Security
Overview
• Uncertainty?
• Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo
• Type of security concerns?
• Adaptation
• Consequence management• Policy responses• Implications for energy security
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Climate Change I
• Little uncertainty over the direction of change
• Statistical analysis of data on climate• Some uncertainty over speed of change
• Wide variety of sources and models on data
• Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions
• Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur
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Climate Change II
• Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation is a major contributor to climate change
• Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact:
• Reduce use of fossil fuels
• Increase efficiency of use of fossil fuels
• Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change
• Implications for energy security are mixed.
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Climate Change III
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Climate Change IV
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Climate Change V
Types of Climate Change Issues• Not just data in temperatures
• Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems
• Decline in polar icecaps
• Increase in number and duration of droughts
• Increased frequency of extreme weather events• Concern over rate of change and potential for
acceleration
• Short-term challenges of responding to sudden changes
• Long term challenges of adaptation
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Climate Change VI
Consequence management concerns• Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces
• Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important?
• Consequential for budgets, planning and programs?
• Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change
• International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?
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Climate Change VII
• Adaptation support
• Food and water
• Health
• Energy• Human security
• Migration
• Armed conflict• Governance
• State viability
• Economic viability
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Climate Change VIII
• Five Climate Threats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries
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Climate Change IX
• Projected Temperature Increase in Africa 2040, 2090
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Climate Change X
• Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity
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Climate Change XI
• Dependence on Inflows/Water Transfers
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Climate Change XII
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Climate Change XIII
Role of environmental policy• Case of both market failure and government failure• So what should government focus on?
• Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change
• Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end users get prices right
• Establish simple rules of the game
• Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right
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Climate Change XIV
• Policy Tools• Internalize climate change costs
• Create markets
• Regulate sources• Market facilitation (information)• Stimulate technological development• Ease economic adaptation• Pursue international coordinated response
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Climate Change XV
Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations
• White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
• Identify gaps in climate data
• Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes
• NOAA/NSA
• Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations
• DNI
• Climate change>human security>national security?
• Develop indicators
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Climate Change XVI
Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations (contd.)• NSC
• Coordinate whole of government approach• DoD
• Continued focus on military support for civilian authorities (MSCA) and emergence response to catastrophic weather
• Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, especially water
• Enhance partner resilience
• Conflict/avoidance/shaping efforts
• Focus on Africa as region at high risk
• Littoral risk assessment and adaptation
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Climate Change XVII
• Implications for energy security• Core policy is to reduce use of fusil fuels and
associated emissions• Benefits to energy security
• Greater focus on efficiency
• Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America
• More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower
• Cons for security in general
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Climate Change XVIII
Final Thoughts• Already successful states
• Cost to address/mitigate climate change
• Competition for capital with other states
• Magnets for mitigation
• Looked to for aid and disaster response• Less developed states
• Varying impact of climate change• Poor governance increases risks• Lower ability to adapt especially in agricultural
economies• Trans nationalization of conflicts over water, resources
• Less able to manage uncertainty?20