nuances newsletter - election special

nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL

N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013

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THE RESULTS ..........................................................................................

MERKEL MAINTAINS POWER. – THE RESULTS OF THE GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION: –

Angela Merkel’s CDU party have once again won a majority

of the votes (41.7%) in Germany’s national election, which

took place today Sunday 22 September 2013. This

represents an increase of 7.9 points. Early reports

suggested an absolute majority for the Chancellor however

this now seems unlikely with the CDU party missing out by

about 4 parliamentary seats. The next biggest party, the

SPD, will enter parliament with 25.6% of the vote.

However Merkel’s current coalition partner, the FDP, will

not be returning to parliament having failed to secure the

minimum 5%. Both the Left Party (Post Communist) and

the Greens will remain in parliament, with 8.4% and 8.5%

respectively. Turnout nationwide was 73%.

A QUICK ANALYSIS: TRANSPORT POLICY The CSU, Merkel’s CDU sister party in Bavaria, has received

more than 50% of the vote in Bavaria, which counts for

over 7.4% nationwide. This will give the Bavarian faction a

very strong position in Berlin. Tonight on a television panel

discussion it was made clear by Gerda Hasselfeldt, leader

of the CSU in parliament, that road pricing for cars on the

German autobahn was on the agenda. Merkel, who has

consistently refused to entertain this argument, insisted

that road pricing would not be a clashing point and that a

solution would be found.

EUROPE The Dutch newspaper, de Volkskrant deplores that only

the Germans can vote. This Dutch perspective implies that

the election victory of Angela Merkel is also highly

Federal Election Results

CDU - 41,8%

SPD - 25,6%

Die Grünen - 8,5%

Die Linke - 8,4%

Topics / Themen:

THE RESULTS 1

Merkel maintains power / Merkel scheitert knapp an absoluter Mehrheit Results from Hessen / Wahlkrimi auch in Hessen

BACKGROUND INFORMATION 3 Introduction Party Colours Energiewende German Election System

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 6 New Hires and Goodbyes / Interna

Angela Merkel, CDU Foto: CDU/Dominik Butzmann

Peer Steinbrück, SPD Foto: SPD/Susie Knoll



significant on the European level. The next important

election is the one for the European Parliament, which will

take place on 25 May 2014. Regarding the European

Union, Angela Merkel indicates that she wants to have

both: more integration on the EU-level on the one hand,

on the other hand giving more power back to the member

states.

ENERGY So far there are no comments on energy efficiency policy.

MERKEL SCHEITERT KNAPP AN ABSOLUTER MEHRHEIT. – ERGEBNISSE DER BUNDESTAGSWAHL 2013: – In der gestrigen Bundestagswahl konnte Angela Merkel’s

CDU wieder die Mehrheit der Stimmen (41,7%) für sich

gewinnen. Dies bedeutet einen Anstieg von 7,9% im

Vergleich zur Wahl 2009. Erste Hochrechnungen sahen

zunächst die absolute Mehrheit bei der CDU/CSU, doch

dies scheint mittlerweile unwahrscheinlich, da den

Schwesterparteien dafür 4 Sitze im Bundestag fehlen.

Zweitstärkste Kraft ist die SPD mit 25,6% der Stimmen. Die

FDP, bisheriger Koalitionspartner der CDU/CSU scheidet

aus dem Bundestag aus. Sowohl die Grünen als auch die

Linke ziehen mit, 8,5% bzw. 8,4% sicher ins Parlament ein.

Die Wahlbeteiligung lag mit 73% höher als 2009.

TRANSPORT POLITIK Im Vorfeld der Wahlen hatte sich CSU-Chef Horst Seehofer

für eine PKW-Maut für Ausländer auf deutschen Straßen

stark gemacht, diese Idee wurde zunächst von Merkel

(CDU) abgelehnt. Nach der Verkündung der ersten

Hochrechnungen waren sich die Schwesterparteien

allerdings einig, dass eine gemeinsame Lösung für die

PKW-Maut gefunden werden wird unter Berücksichtigung

des Europarechts, sagten Angela Merkel, CDU, und Gerda

Hasselfeldt, Fraktionschefin der CSU im Bundestag in der

Elefantenrunde am Wahlabend. Einig sind sich alle

Parteien, dass das marode Straßen- und Autobahn-Netz in

Deutschland ein Investitionsprogramm benötigt. Die SPD

sowie die Grünen wollen zudem die Ausweitung der LKW-

Maut für kleinere LKWs auf 3,5 Tonnen.

EUROPA Die niederländische Zeitung, de Volkskrant bedauert, dass

nur die Deutschen zu dieser Wahl antreten konnten. Diese

Sicht impliziert, dass dem Wahlsieg von Merkel im

gesamten Europa eine hohe Bedeutung zugemessen wird.

Die nächste wichtige Wahl ist die des Europäischen

Parlaments, die am 25. Mai 2014 entschieden wird.

Bezüglich der europäischen Zusammenarbeit deutete

Merkel an, dass sie sowohl mehr EU-Integration, aber in

anderen Bereichen wieder mehr Entscheidungskraft für die

Mitgliedsstaaten wünsche.

ENERGIE EFFIZIENZ Zur Energie Effizienz Politik liegen keine Kommentare vor.

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RESULTS FROM HESSEN. – UNCLEAR RESULTS ALSO IN HESSEN. – The regional elections in Hessen also took place on

Sunday. Here also the CDU maintained a majority with

38.8 % of the vote. Volker Bouffier, head of the party in

the region increased his vote this time around however

will feel home alone having lost his coalition partner FDP.

.

Hessen Election Results

CDU - 38,8

SPD - 30,8

Die Grünen 10,9%

Die Linke - 5,2%



WAHLKRIMI AUCH IN HESSEN.

Ministerpräsident Volker Bouffier gewann mit der CDU

38,8% der Stimmen, was die Partei zur stärksten Kraft in

Hessen macht. Die SPD kommt auf 30,8% der Stimmen und

auch die Grünen schneiden mit 10.9% besser als auf

Bundesebene ab. Die Linke wäre mit 5,2% wieder knapp im

Landesparlament vertreten. Der Wiedereinzug der FDP ist

vermutlich gescheitert. Die letzten Hochrechnungen sahen

die FDP bei 4,8%. Somit gibt es bei der Landtagswahl

wieder die bekannten „hessischen Verhältnisse“, die sich

durch eine deutliche Unübersichtlichkeit auszeichnen.

Zukünftige Koalitionsbildungen sind - wie so häufig in

Hessen - relativ unklar.

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BACKGROUND INFO ..........................................................................................

INTRODUCTION. This article gives background analysis about the German

political system. The Bundesrat, (the Upper House of the

Parliament) is represented by 16 member states (federal

states of Germany) and has a strong say in many policy

areas such as energy and taxation. The Federal

government have faced opposition from the Bundesrat

quite often in the past because the majority of the

Bundestag, (the Lower House of the Parliament) is

different to the majority of the Bundesrat even if they both

have a majority of one party. There is always opposition

because a lot of issues deal with budgets.

..........................................................................................

PARTY COLOURS. – A QUICK INTRODUCTION TO THE GERMAN PARTY SPECTRUM. – The insignia of each party is the party colour, far easier to

associate with the abbreviated full political party names.

The abbreviation rather the acronym does not

correspondingly spell out the full party name i.e. SPD

ought to be SDP for Social Democrats but for the German-

English conversion, letters are transposed. These strong

tints are:

black – CDU/CSU, chaired by Angela Merkel and

chancellor candidate

red – SPD, chaired by Sigmar Gabriel; Peer

Steinbrück, top candidate

yellow – FDP, chaired by Philipp Rösler; Rainer

Brüderle, top candidate

green – Die Grünen, co-chaired by Claudia Roth

and Cem Özdemir; Jürgen Trittin and Katrin

Göring-Eckardt, top candidates

dark red – Die Linke, (post-communists), co-

chaired by Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger;

candidate team: Gregor Gysi, Sahra Wagenknecht

and six others.

The black is the Chancellor’s Party CDU/CSU (Christian

Democratic Union of Germany/Christian Social Union.) CSU

is the sister party of the CDU in Bavaria, a southern state of

Germany which is bordered by Austria and Czech Republic

to the East. The Chancellor has already done two terms of

office (8 years) might serve longer than Margaret Thatcher,

depending on the outcome of the election negotiations.

She is seen by most of the Germans as a safe pair of hands,

weathering the Greeks’ storm and the risks of

globalisation. She embodies the famous saying of the

Chancellor, Konrad Adenauer in one of the slogans: no

Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, SPD Foto: SPD Büro T.S-G. 2008

Volker Bouffier, CDU Foto: volker-bouffier.de



experiments. If you take the basic appeal of a party leader

as one of the determinants of election results, then Angela

Merkel’s quiet assertiveness might have just been the

ticket for re-election. But people’s opinions do shift subject

to prevailing wind of rhetoric, so she may not rest on her

laurels yet.

Angela Merkel’s opponent to the candidacy as Federal

Chancellor was Peer Steinbrück of the SPD, who is viewed

by the public as an able politician and experienced

economist. As the former Minister of Finance during the

black-red (CDU/CSU and SPD) coalition, Steinbrück is

regarded as an old hand. The SPD is the oldest party in the

Bundestag, celebrating its 150th birthday this year. They

have a strong hold on thirteen federal states out of the

sixteen. Likewise, they outnumber other parties in the

Bundesrat, the Upper House of the Parliament. Steinbrück

promised, once he gets into office, to address the lack of

parity on women’s representation in employment and

remuneration. He is upfront on the government’s savings

in time of crisis as the paradox of thrift. He also wants to

address the issue of what he sees as Germany having the

biggest low pay sector by introducing standard minimum

wage. Overall, he has big plans for improving the welfare

sector: housing, pensions, hospitals and childcare centres.

Ensuring greater social justice, the slogan: “Das Wir

entscheidet” means let the populace decide.

High income earners are rather opposed to Steinbrück due

to his assertion to burden them with higher taxes. One

thing which is a relief to taxpayers is that any future rescue

fund to be built up will not rely on their purse instead

Steinbrück plans to ask big European banks for help. His

plans appeal only to 25.6% of the electorate.

The FDP, represented by its top

candidate Rainer Brüderle did not

make it into parliament. The party

stands for market liberalism and tax

reductions. In 2009 the FDP gained

15 per cent of the votes, which led to

a black-yellow coalition with the

CDU. However, in this centre-right

government the FDP failed to implement its key objectives

like decreasing taxes and strengthening the free market.

During the election campaign, the FDP kept on pursuing its

strong liberalism by rejecting national minimum wage and

refusing legal thresholds concerning energy efficiency and

renewable energy. With such programme and due to lack

of vigour during the past legislative period, the FDP was

not able to convince the electorate.

In contrast to the FDP, the Greens, with its top candidates

Jürgen Trittin and Katrin Göring-Eckardt, can be positioned

on the centre-left of the political party spectrum. Their

party programme is based on eco-friendly as well as equal

opportunity policies and they are considered as the

German pioneers for green energy. During the red (SPD)-

green coalition (1998 to 2005) with Trittin serving as

Federal Minister for Energy, National Conservation and

Nuclear Safety, the Greens were already promoting to get

rid of nuclear energy. This main ideological goal of the

Greens has been adopted by Angela Merkel and the CDU

when Fukushima disaster struck. Initially, the Chancellor

was going to renew the licences (subject to tests) of

nuclear power plants but eventually reversed this and

introduced the so-called energy transition (see below for

more detailed information).

The Greens’ election campaign continued to be based on

the promotion of wind and solar energy as alternatives to

fossil fuels. They have high expectations of the current

election due to their electoral success in the federal state

Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Jürgen Trittin, Die Grünen Foto: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Rainer Brüderle, FDP Foto: FDP



Gregor Gysi Foto: Die Linke. Bundestagsfraktion

of Baden-Württemberg in 2011 when they pushed the

CDU off the throne after 58 years of reign. However, this

victory could not be repeated on the federal level by

achieving only 8.5% of the votes.

As an advocate of democratic

socialism and a proponent for

higher minimum wage, the

dark red - Die Linke’s (post-

communist) candidate Gregor

Gysi is a lawyer by profession.

People talked about him as

being an eloquent speaker. As

expected, die Linke gained

8.4% in the polls but will not

be part of any coalition as they

are seen by all other parties as

an unbearable partner.

.......................................................................................... ENERGIEWENDE. ONE BIG CHALLENGE - AND OPPORTUNITY AT THE SAME TIME - GERMAN POLITICS HAS TO FACE: THE ENERGIEWENDE. – Energiewende means energy transition. It is the move

towards the development of generating energy from

renewable sources in an efficient and sustainable manner

with the end goal of abolishing non-renewable sources.

Surprisingly, it was the CDU which initiated this transition

provoked by the Fukushima disaster. The CDU/CSU-FDP

government looked at this as a lesson to be learnt and

started to pursue less risky, more environmentally friendly

and cleaner energy policies.

This was the main focus of the black (CDU/CSU) campaign

for this general election reneging on all energy policies and

nuclear power commitments they originally stood for. The

traditional core voters of the CDU/CSU perceived this

complete u-turn as disconcerting, so with companies

providing energy especially the nuclear power energy

sector felt the same and were shocked as they were

promised a lease of life for a little bit longer.

This new direction is seen as the way forward, the better if

not the only alternative to dependency from non-

renewable sources obtained from fossil fuels: oil, coal,

natural gas and nuclear fuel (uranium) which are bound to

run out. It is not only a matter of depleting resources but

the real issue is how they are handling the green-house gas

emission that affects climatic change. There is also the

issue of reducing our current use and consumption of

energy from these fossil fuels.

As mentioned earlier on, the idea of a German energy

transition has its roots originally in the Green party.

Thirteen years ago, the German Renewable Energy Act –

EEG (Erneuerbare-Energien Gesetz) came into force under

the red-green coalition. The EEG core is reducing cost and

improved efficiency in producing energy. By now all

political parties in fact are in agreement on EEG. As always

in any high technological innovations, it has its inherent

problem, the initial cost is high but it may prove in-

expensive in the long run.

Not only is the Energiewende cost-intensive, there are also

hiccups in producing energy from renewable sources. The

intermittent supply of wind to power the turbines and

cloud cover on the solar panels make it volatile. This

volatility has given the industry plenty of scope to think

about. They now have to work on capacity market issues,

ensuring guaranteed supply of electricity at peak times.

Already, disadvantages of this volatility have been felt in

Germany. This has caused an increased demand for coal

energy to efficiently fill in the gaps. Eventually, this led to a

rise of CO2-emissions which is actually intended to be

reduced. The capacity market will bring in incentives to

have sufficient reliable capacity on both sides of supply

and demand of the economic theory. The industry itself

especially the technology sector is one of the biggest

consumers of energy. To achieve a sustainable green

economy, environmental protection, industry and politics

have to go hand in hand and a vivid exchange is necessary.



The Energiewende would definitely put Germany into the

forefront of change in energy policies and would set the

trend towards green economy across the European Union.

However, EU competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia

is at the moment challenging the whole construction of the

Renewable Energy Law including the energy efficiency

legislation of Germany.

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HOW DOES THE ELECTION WORK? –

THE GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SYSTEM IN A NUTSHELL:

–

The election process in governing is not as straightforward

as it seems. The voting system is called mixed-member

proportional representation (MMP). This has evolved from

its historical background during the Weimar Republic of

direct proportional representation, when having many

parties without a majority proved difficult to govern.

Any eligible voter (from 18 onwards) casts two ballots. The

first is for the constituency candidate (FPTP= first-past-the

post) and the second is for a party’s regional list. A voter

can vote for their local MP without taking into account

his/her party affiliation hence the composition of different

colours (political parties) in the legislative body which

matters in the second ballot. Statistically there are 598

seats to be filled in the Bundestag. A party would need a

minimum of 300 seats to win a majority. If a party wins

more votes via the second ballot then there will be the so

called overhang seats. Overhang seats happen when a

party wins more constituency seats than it would be

entitled from its proportion of (party list) votes. Such seats

are compensated by creating additional seats to ensure

the correct composition of the parliament according to

second ballot votes.

For minor parties, they have to strive to get the 5-per-cent

threshold to have any representation in the Bundestag. As

stipulated by the Electoral Law, the five per cent of the

total party votes is required or no one is elected from

party list although a candidate who has won a

constituency wins his/her seat. The other way round, is if a

party wins at least 3 constituency seats. This applied to Die

Linke (in the last Bundestag).

..........................................................................................

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..........................................................................................

NEW HIRES AND GOODBYE. –

KEVIN JASCHIK AND ISABEL HOFFMANN JOINING NUANCES

PUBLIC AFFAIRS. SIR STEPHEN SHERBOURNE LEAVING FOR

THE HOUSE OF LORDS.

– nuances public affairs welcomes new hires Kevin Jaschik

and Isabel Hoffmann. Jaschik worked inter alia for

McKinsey & Company in network-based industries and

studied Business Economics as well as International Politics

in Göttingen, Berlin, Amsterdam and London. At nuances

public affairs he is responsible for clients concerning

energy and energy efficiency.

Isabel Hoffmann was a research assistant for the Project

“Mediterranean Institute Berlin” at the Humboldt-

University focussing on energy security. In 2012 she

finished her studies in Contemporary European Studies

and Communication Science with stays in Munich, Dublin,

Bath, Prague and Berlin. For nuances public affairs she will

consult clients from the field of energy and energy

efficiency.

Our long-standing senior adviser, Sir Stephen Sherbourne,

has been appointed by David Cameron as a member of the

House of Lords, the upper house of the British Parliament.

He has taken the title of Lord Sherbourne of Didsbury.

Isabel Hoffmann Kevin Jaschik



INTERNA

–

KEVIN JASCHIK UND ISABEL HOFFMANN VERSTÄRKEN

NUANCES PUBLIC AFFAIRS. SIR STEPHEN SHERBOURNE

VERLÄSST DIE AGENTUR FÜR DAS HOUSE OF LORDS

–

nuances public affairs freut sich über die Neuzugänge

Kevin Jaschik sowie Isabel Hoffmann. Jaschik, der unter

anderem fünf Jahre für McKinsey & Company in

netzwerkbasierten Industrien tätig war, studierte

Betriebswirtschaftslehre und Internationale Politik in

Göttingen, Berlin, Amsterdam und London. Bei nuances

public affairs ist er für die Betreuung von Kunden aus den

Bereichen Energie und Energieeffizienz verantwortlich.

Isabel Hoffmann war zuvor als Forschungsassistentin beim

Projekt „Mittelmeer Institut Berlin“ der Humboldt-

Universität mit dem Fokus Energiesicherheit beschäftigt.

Sie schloss 2012 ihr Studium in Contemporary European

Studies sowie Kommunikationswissenschaft ab und

studierte in Bath, Prag, Berlin, München und Dublin. Auch

sie wird sich vorwiegend Kunden aus dem Energie-

/Effizienz-Bereich annehmen.

Unser langjähriger Senior Berater Sir Stephen Sherbourne,

wurde vom britischen Premierminister David Cameron

zum Mitglied im House of Lords, dem Oberhaus des

Britischen Parlaments, berufen. Er trägt nun den Titel Lord

Sherbourne of Didsbury.

..........................................................................................

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