nuclear energy and climate change · 2018-04-26 · 6 risk safety and security wise-paris major...

1 WISE-Paris

Nuclear Energy and Climate Change Risks, limitations and inconsistancies

of the nuclear power option in the fight against climate change !

Yves Marignac

Director of WISE-Paris

Greens/EFA Conference

Dismantling the nuclear argument - Why nuclear is no climate-friendly solution!

European Parliament, Brussels 2nd September 2015

Foreword

2 WISE-Paris

Based on the study:

L’option nucléaire contre le changement climatique

Commissionned to WISE-Paris* in advance of COP21 (Paris, December 2015) by the following set of organisations:

To be published in the coming weeks

*WISE-Paris (World Information Service on Energy) is an independent information, study and consulting agency with a non-profit status, created in 1983 and established in Paris, with no link to any other organisation called WISE.

Greens/EFA Conference – Brussels, 2nd Sept. 2015

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Amsterdam!

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Contents

3 WISE-Paris

Three connected areas of debate

Risk Evidence of specific risks

• Nuclear proliferation • Safety and security

• Radioactive waste issues

Effect Maths of the “substitution” logic • Life cycle carbon content • “Avoided” carbon emissions • Global impact on emissions

Policy Articulation with other options • Projected potential • Cost / effectiveness • Consistency with energy transition


Is the risk acceptable and

can it be managed?

How much GHG

emissions can it save?

How does it fit

with other options?

Is the nuclear option a right, effective and consistent mean

to tackle climate change?

4

Risk Proliferation

WISE-Paris

Military use: back door of civil programmes !

Uranium enrichment, Natanz, Iran

Hiroshima, 6 Aug. 1945

• Same materials (uranium, plutonium…) and same technologies (enrichment, reprocessing…)

• Continuous increase of available stocks of nuclear materials

• Intractable links between nuclear power and nuclear weapon programmes

• Historical and ongoing failure of proliferation safeguards


5

Risk Proliferation

WISE-Paris

Nuclear weapons: ongoing threat!

• Rising risk of a global conflict in 1950s-1970s: first threat of humanity against itself and its environment

• Regional nuclear conflicts would be major catastrophies

• The spread of nuclear reactors intrinsically increases the risks

Sou

rce

: US

Dire

ctor

of C

entra

l Int

ellig

ence

, 198

4

Sou

rce

: S. C

arr,

2005

Nuclear winter scenario (Northern hemisphere)

• Up to 40°C down on Earth surface

• Up to 95% less light (1st week)


6

Risk Safety and security

WISE-Paris

Major accident: revised and pressing risk !

!!• From �impossible��to “highly unlikely” to real

• Occurrence: theory 1 for 1 million reactor.years, experience 4 for 15.000

• Fundamentals of nuclear safety prove insufficient against the danger potential

Tchernobyl, 26 April 1986

Fukushima 11 March 2011


7

Risk Safety and security

WISE-Paris

Major accident: increasing risk of a disaster !

• Large contaminated areas

• Huge impact on populations (long term death toll, disrupted lives)

• Unbearable economic cost (up to the 1000 billion euros range)


Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant (USA), June 2011

• Ageing nuclear facilities

• Profitability pressure

• Increasing exposure and fragility to terrorist attacks

• Bigger and more frequent external aggressions with climate change (flooding, heat / cold wave, storm, forest fire…)

8

Risk Nuclear waste

WISE-Paris

Nuclear waste and sites: a piling-up legacy !Spent fuel pool, La Hague

Bure laboratory (geological disposal)

• Ongoing accumulation of radwaste (up to 300.000 tons of spent fuel), mostly stored in unsafe conditions

• No operational solution for the disposal of long-lived high level waste

• A strong challenge forthcoming with large-scale decommissioning


9

Risk Conclusions

WISE-Paris

Nuclear option: specific risks to mitigate !• Nuclear production immediately comes with high intrinsic risks:

- global risk of proliferation

- technological risk of a major accident

- intergenerational risk of radioactive waste

• These risks have not decreased but increased through the experience of existing nuclear programmes

• These risks would dramatically increase should nuclear programmes be developed and the number of nuclear countries increase

• Weighing the nuclear option against climate change ! Nuclear risks could lead to refuse this option in any case !"If not, their mitigation must be a condition when comparing

nuclear power with safer options


10

Effect Nuclear emissions

WISE-Paris

Nuclear GHG emissions: uncertainties!!

Source: B. Sovacool, 2008 Source: B. Sovacool, 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

gCO

2eq/

kWh

Amont, 25.09gCO2e/kWh C o n s t r u c t i o n , 8 . 2 0 g C O 2 e / k W h Exp lo i t a t i on , 11 .58gCO2e /kWh Aval, 9.2gCO2e/kWh Démantèlement, 12.01gCO2e/kWh

Total : 66,08gCO2eq/

kWh

Median value

Median value

• No direct emissions from carbon combustion Indirect emissions from life cycle – large scale of possible assumptions

• Bibliographical review: from 1,4 to 288 gCO2éq/kWh, median 66 gCO2eq/kWh


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Effect Nuclear emissions

WISE-Paris

Nuclear GHG emissions: IPCC figures!!

• Life cycle emissions uncertain but not zero, still significantly lower than those from fossil fuels

675

510

290

18 - 180

9 - 63

4 - 110

8 - 81

6 - 79

2 - 23

10 - 30

1689

1170

930

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Charbon

Pétrole

Gaz

PV

CSP

Nucléaire

Eolien

Géothermie

Energie marine

Marémotrice, hydroliennes, houlomotrice

hypothèse basse hypothèse haute

gCO2eq/kWh

Source: IPCC, 2014


12

Effect Avoided emissions

WISE-Paris

Avoided emissions: nuclear industry figures !

Source: SFEN, 2014

SFEN calculation: Mean fossil fuel based electric generation = 800 gCO2/kWh 2650 TWh of nuclear generation (year 2005) # 2,12 GtCO2 of “avoided emissions” per year

The industry claims to save nearly 10% of world GHG emissions (26 GtCO2)


13

Effect Avoided emissions

WISE-Paris

Avoided emissions: mean emissions of generation !

Source: WISE-Paris, based on The Shift Project, IEA, IPCC, 2015

• Increased efficiency of thermal plants, development of renewables

• Nuclear “avoided emissions” go down with the average CO2 emissions of non nuclear electricity generation

0,600

0,610

0,620

0,630

0,640

0,650

0,660

0,670

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mt/T

Wh

Evolution of mean CO2 emissions by TWh of the world electric “mix”


14

Effect World perspective

WISE-Paris

Global impact: a marginal influence !

• Nuclear power accounts for avoiding ~ 4 % of energy related CO2 emissions

• Since the introduction of nuclear power, added emissions are 20 times higher than these avoided ones

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mt CO2

Emissions CO2 évitées par le nucléaire Emissions de CO2

Avoided: ~ 1500 MteCO2/year

Added: ~ 30000 MteCO2/year

Source: WISE-Paris, 2015, based on CAIT2, EDGAR, The Shift Project


15


WISE-Paris

Global impact: a declining role !

Three main factors:

• Declining trend of nuclear power generation

• Improvement of CO2 emissions of non nuclear electric generation

• Global increase of energy related CO2 emissions

Source: WISE-Paris, 2015, based on CAIT2, EDGAR, The Shift Project

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*

% Share of energy related CO2 emissions “avoided” by nuclear power


16


WISE-Paris

Nuclear power and emissions: a limited range of action !

Source: Ministère de l’écologie (CGDD-SOeS), 2014, from IPCC, 2007

• Nuclear energy only produces electricity • Electricity is less than 1/4th of total final energy consumption

• Energy related emissions are the largest part but not all GHG emissions


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Effect Conclusion

WISE-Paris

Nuclear: limited and insufficient impact on emissions !

• Life cycle emissions of nuclear power are significantly lower than those of fossil fuels but not zero

• Nuclear avoided emissions per kWh go down as non nuclear generation evolves towards a low carbon mix

• Nuclear power only plays a limited, marginal and declining role in reducing world GHG emissions

• Nuclear power has never reversed the dynamics of growth of world GHG emissions

• Therefore nuclear power could only play a minor role and has to fit with a set of effective options ! Cost/benefit of new nuclear power needs to compare to other options !"Where nuclear exists, its consistency with the implementation

of other policy options needs to be assessed


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Policy World prospective

WISE-Paris

World projection: a voluntaristic view !

• Doubling world nuclear capacity in 15 years would only deliver 8% of the minimal level of emissions reduction that is needed

IEA scenarios

Source : AIE – World Energy Outlook, 2010


19

Policy World prospective

WISE-Paris

Nuclear fleet: unrealistic projections !

Source : WISE-Paris, d’après World Nuclear Industry Status Report, 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

GW Comparaison of historical start-up (orange) with those needed

to meet the IEA target (brown)

• IEA scenario: 500 GW to be connected in 20 years (in addition to life extensions)

• Highly superior to past experience and current capacity


20

Policy Cost / effectiveness

WISE-Paris

Nuclear / renewables: opposite cost curves!!

Source : IIASA, 2010 Source : IBloomberg New Energy Finance, 2012


• Nuclear power has a negative learning curve, contrary to rapidly decreasing renewable costs

• Generating costs have started to cross and the gap will increase

21

Policy Cost / effectiveness

WISE-Paris

Cost / avoided emissions: nuclear vs. other options!!

Source : RMI, 2011


22

Policy German case

WISE-Paris

Germany: nuclear phase-out and climate commitment!!

Source: Eurostat, AG Energiebilanzen, Umweltbundesamt

Energy and climate path • 2000 and 2011 decisions of nuclear

phase-out (by 2022 at most) Reduction by 43.7 TWh

• 2010-2014 reduction by 27.8 TWh of

fossil fuel based generation • Renewables output:

52.6 TWh growth • Domestic demand:

reduction by 39.1 TWh • Global reduction of GHG emissions


GHG EMISSIONS

27,7$%$NUCLEAR

% OF TOTAL ELECTRIC

PRODUCTION

RENEWABLES

23

Policy French case

WISE-Paris

France : a double dependence nuclear–fossil fuels !


French energy balance • Electricity up to 80% dependent on nuclear power, with an ageing reactor fleet (average >30 years)

• Around 70% dependency

on imported fossil fuels National energy bill close to €60-70bn/a • GHG emissions per capita roughly

4 times the world sustainable level => objective of 4-fold cut by 2050

French final energy consumption by energy source (2011)

Renewables and waste

Oil products

Electricity

Coal Gas

Nuclear 18%

Fossil fuels 2% 2% Renew- ables

24

Policy French case

WISE-Paris Greens/EFA Conference – Brussels, 2nd Sept. 2015

GHG emissions cut ÷ 2,4 ÷ 2,3 ÷ 4,1 ÷ 5,3

Needs 2-fold reduction of energy demand to meet 4-fold reduction of GHG emissions

Pathways to 2050

Continuing (dead-end)

Transition, turnaway

Demand: -20%

Demand: -50%

Priority: nuclear

Priority: renewables

Mix nuclear/renew.

Mix renew./nuclear

DEC Décarbonation

DIV Diversification

EFF Efficacité

SOB Sobriété

CNRS, CEA…

4 families of energy transition scenarios

1st Criteria Level of action on energy demand

2nd Criteria Supply side priorities

Possible pathways of French energy

transition assessed by pluralist experts group

25

Policy French case


GHG emissions cut ÷ 2,4 ÷ 2,3 ÷ 4,1 ÷ 5,3 Net Investments /

Energy imports (2012-2050) -€1,145bn -€1,151bn -€1,389bn -€1,470bn

Pathways to 2050

Continuing (dead-end)

Transition, turnaway

Demand: -20%

Demand: -50%

Priority: nuclear

Priority: renewables

Mix nuclear/renew.

Mix renew./nuclear

DEC Décarbonation

DIV Diversification

EFF Efficacité

SOB Sobriété

CNRS, CEA…

Possible pathways of French energy

transition assessed by pluralist experts group

The energy transition does not represent a cost but an investment into the future

26

Policy French case


New official study: (by French Energy management agency)

• 100% renewable electricity by 2050 is realistic…

• …and affordable (same cost as 40% nuclear)

100% renewables 95% renewables 80% renewables 40% renewables

Cost of demand flexibility

Cost of storage

Cost of grid (included in model)

Cost of grid (not included in model)

Gain from surplus use

Cost of renewables

Total cost

Energy cost (€/MWh)

Wood Waste PV / roof PV / ground Onshore wind (new) Onshore wind Offshore wind Tidal Sea waves Marine turbine Hydropower (lake) Hydropower (river) Geothermal Offshore wind (floating) Thermal solar Methane production

27

Policy Conclusion

WISE-Paris

Nuclear: an obstacle to the energy transition !

• Nuclear power is realistically limited to only a few percent of the required emissions reduction

• Nuclear power delivers significantly less emission reduction, at highest cost and much slower than efficiency and renewables

• New nuclear projects, in current or new nuclear countries, could therefore not be justified by climate change policies

• Existing nuclear power is more an obstacle than an asset to meet required reduction levels: - Germany shows that nuclear phase-out can be consistant with climate change commitment

- France finds out that a high level of nuclear power is inconsistent with long-term low-carbon objectives

• Compared to nuclear-based strategies, energy transition policies are not only best to tackle climate change, but also bring the best economic results


28 WISE-Paris

Thank you for your attention and happy to answer any question

More information :

WISE-Paris

Yves Marignac Director E-mail : [email protected] Tel : +33 (0)6 07 71 02 41 ©

B. R

untz

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nuclear energy and climate change · 2018-04-26 · 6 risk safety and security wise-paris major...

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