National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN)

Paper Presented at The 8th Nuclear Energy Symposium

Tokyo, 15-16 March 2004

NUCLEAR ENERGY PERSPECTIVE IN INDONESIA

INTRODUCTION

THE ARCHIPELAGO OF INDONESIA

Malaysia

Australia

The Philippines

§  Diminishing resource vs demand increase

ENERGY PICTURE

§  Uneven distribution of population, high rate of population growth

§  Resources and users are far away in different islands

§  Low energy consumption per capita, lowest in Asean,

§  Environmental issue resulted from fossil fuel burning

§  Indonesia still expects revenue from oil and gas sale §  Indonesia to prepare long term, sustainable development

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

kWh/cap

GDP

/cap

(US$

95)

Thailand

Malaysia

ChinaVietnam

IndonesiaPhilippines

PakistanIndia

Indonesia (1997) including autoproducers

GDP PER CAPITA VS ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA

GRAND ENERGY STRATEGY

§  Optimizing energy supply, adopting energy mix policy

§  Optimizing the development of energy resources §  Optimizing the energy allocation for industry feed material that produce value added §  Optimizing the energy allocation for export to optimize the foreign exchange revenue

CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT AND PARLIAMENT ATTITUDE TO

NUCLEAR ENERGY

§  Both Government and Parliament consider the possible utilization of nuclear energy to help solve the energy problem in form of energy mix scenario §  Both Government and Parliament recognize that nuclear energy is proven to environmentally friendly and able to provide support to long term sustainable development §  The objective of adopting nuclear energy is to secure the the supply of electrical energy, conserve strategic oil and gas, and protect the environment

FUTURE ENERGY BUSINESS

§  Energy is important to develop economy and prosperity

§  The current energy consumption per capita is still very low §  Population still grows, esp. in rural areas §  The current average citizen’s access to electrical energy is still low

§  All clearly indicate the future high energy growth rate in Indonesia

NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

§  Securing continuity of energy supply for domestic use at price affordable to public

§  Enhancing the life quality of public

§  Stimulating economic growth

§  Reserving adequate supply of oil and gas for export, thus yielding in higher foreign exchange revenue

ENERGY POLICY MEASURES

§  Diversification to maximize and economize the energy supply, curb excessive hydrocarbon resource use, reduce the dependence on few types of fuel, and ultimately replace it with other available fuel resource §  Intensification to increase and expand exploration §  Conservation to economize energy production and use §  Energy pricing to formulate energy price based on its economic value by taking into account environmental cost §  Use of clean energy technology to support environment protection toward sustainable development

CURRENT SITUATION OF ENERGY SECTOR

HYDROCARBON FUEL USE DILEMMA

Hydrocarbon resource

Domestic need

Energy for export

• As fuel • Electricity genetion

• Feed mat’l

Foreign exchange revenue

Social function

Commercial function

Industry

product for export

Population growth Year 2000 : 204 million Year 2025 : 250 million Economy growth Year 2000 : 398 Trillion Rups Year 2025 : 1660 Trillion Rups Life Quality Improvement

Primary Energ Supply (2 folds) Year 2000 : 5.962 PJ Year 2025 : 12.221 PJ Electrical Energy Supply (3.5 folds) Year 2000 : 29 GWe Year 2025 : 100 GWe

Environmental Issues -  Global warming -  Air pollution -  Acid rains -  Health

CHOOSE ENERGY OPTIONS OPTIMALLY, WISELY

FOSSIL FUEL

OIL COAL GAS

NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY

HYDRO & MICROHYDRO

SOLAR, WIND, BIOMASS,

GEOTERMAL NUCLEAR

ENVIRONMENT INFRASTRUCTURE ENERGY RESOURCES SOCIO-CULTURAL GEOPOLITICS ECONOMY

ENERGY RELLYING ON NATURE ENERGY RELLYING ON TECHNOLOGY

From: Comprehensive Assessment of Different Energy Source for Electricity Generation in Indonesia, 2002.

NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2000-2005

Map of the world showing installed and forecasted geothermal capacity in 1997, in 2002 and2007. In 2007, because of its large resource base, Indonesia could have approximately 20% of the world’s installed capacity

ASIA

20072002 1997

EUROPE

1997 2849

2002 3977

20075327

20072002 1997

AUSTRALIA / NZ

20072002 1997 AFRICA

358 519 699

4646 46

871 1058 1208YRMW

YRMW

YRMW

YRMW

200720021997NORTH AMERICA

2940 2629 2535YRMW

WORLDYR

MW

19978,055

20029,802

200712,093

ProspectsDeveloped Fields

20072002 1997 LATIN AMERICA

991 1573 2278YRMW

INDONESIA

WORLD GEOTHERMAL

1 PJ = 175074 BOE

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Coal 1634 1898 2090 2666 3084 3539 Oil 3026 1877 1290 1065 1055 1055 Gas 2625 3015 3433 3292 3343 3739

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1 PJ = 175,074 BOE

TOTAL FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION (PJ)

Years 1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Manufacturing 1371 1297 1535 1949 2413 2992 3678

Agriculture, Construction and Mining

132 133 148 166 184 204 221

Transportation 878 927 1048 1208 1391 1617 1871

Household 1395 1445 1543 1626 1708 1798 1903

Services 252 268 291 324 352 395 473

Grand total 4028 4070 4564 5272 6048 7007 8146

TOTAL FINAL ENERGY DEMAND

CRITICAL ENERGY ISSUES

CURRENT ISSUES

§  FOSSIL FUEL DOMESTIC USE VERSUS FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVENUE §  RAPID DEPLETION OF FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES, POOR DISCOVERY RATE OF NEW RESERVES WHICH SOON CHANGES THE STATUS OF OIL EXPORTING TO IMPORTING COUNTRY §  PRESSURE TO REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (CONTRIBUTED BY FOSSIL BURNING) §  BETTER LOOK AT THE NUCLEAR ENERGY, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

CUMMULATIVE ENERGY TRADE, PJ

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

PJ

CoalOilGas

1 PJ = 175074 BOE

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Coal 1324 1422 1549 1762 1926 2086 Oil 394 - 581 - 1599 - 2551 - 3425 - 4785 Gas 1457 1528 1496 1426 1329 1329

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1 PJ = 175074 BOE

ANNUAL ENERGY EXPORT-IMPORT (PJ)

NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION

•  The economic crisis contributes to the drop of previous plan to erect of NPP. •  Recently government reiterates its recognition of nuclear energy as one of the options to developing and observing energy mix in . •  There are still many to be prepared to realize the NPP (technology, energy policy, legislation regulations, financing scheme, private sector role, public acceptance and environment)

FACTS

§  PURPOSE: TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKERS §  INVOLVING INTERDISCIPLINARY EXPERTS IN COOPERATION WITH IAEA §  TO PROVIDE CLEAR PICTURE OF ENERGY DEMAND NEEDED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT §  TO PROVIDE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY FOR LONG PERION OF TIME

COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR

ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDONESIA (CADES)

§  TO FIND BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR THE WHOLE TERRITORY OF R.I. §  CONSTITUTES THE BASIS FOR LONG TERM ENERGY PLANNING (TILL 2025) §  TO VALIDATE THE ENERGY MIX POLICY

CADES (continued) COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR

ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDONESIA (CADES)

WASTES FROM POWER PLANTS AND ITS FUEL PREPARATION

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Ash/PM10 Gas sweetening Radioactive (HLW) Toxic materials

Oil Nuclear Solar PV

Natural gas

Wood Coal

Source: IAEA, 1997

SOx & NOx

Million tonnes per GWe yearly

§  FEASIBLE INTRODUCTION OF NPP TO THE NATIONAL GRID FOR JAVA-BALI IN 2016

§  A POSSIBLE EARLIER INTRODUCTION WHEN NEW, SMALL REACTORS PROVE TO OPERATE

IMPORTANT RESULTS FROM CADES

1 PJ = 175074 BOE

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Coal 310 477 541 904 1158 1453 Oil 2632 2458 2889 3616 4480 5841 Gas 1168 1486 1937 1866 2014 2410 Renewable 1852 1870 1993 2088 2164 1995 Nuclear 0 0 0 36 270 530

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1 PJ = 175,074 BOE PJ

ENERGY MIX SITUATI0N, 2000-2005

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0

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200

300

400

500

600

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

TWh

biomass geothermal hydro small NPP med NPP large NPP gas diesel f-oil coal

Advanced type of NPP, a total of 6.08 GWe in 2025 from nuclear

ENERGY MIX SITUATI0N, 2000-2005

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND (by fuel)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

PJ

Non-commercialFeedstockMotor fuelFossil substitutableElectricity

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

PJ Pre-FS Government decision

Licensing ★

Construction

Operation

OL

URD-BIS Test

Licensing Document

Site data collect. & Evaluation Nego

PSAR

Contract ? "CA"-

completion "Socialization "Support to Licensing

Utility Identification

1st NPP

Bidding ?

Peraturan Perizinan selesai

MILESTONES OF FIRST NPP CONSTRUCTION

PREPARATION TOWARD NPP OPERATION

ROADMAPS TO FOLLOW

§  INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT §  STRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION §  PUBLIC EDUCATION §  HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT §  COMPREHENSIVE RE-ASSESSMENT §  FINDING VIABLE FINANCING SCHEME §  RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN VARIOUS

FIELDS §  ETC.

No. INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND AGREEMENTS STATUS

1. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - Safeguard Agreement with IAEA - Additional Protocol to Safeguards

Ratified; Act No. 8 Th. 1978 Signed, already in force Signed, already in force

2. Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 49/1986

3. Convention on Early Notification of A Nuclear Accident Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 81/1993

4. Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency

Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 82/1993

5. Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Ratified; Act No. 9/1997

6. Convention on Nuclear Safety Ratified; Pres.Decree No.106/2001

7. Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) On process to be retified

8. Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management

Signed, not in force

9. Protocol to Amend the Vienna Convention Signed, not in force

10. Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Signed, not in force

11. Bilateral cooperation and supply agreement(s) Signed, in force

STATUS OF INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTION IN NUCLEAR ENERGY

FUEL CYCLE BEING REVIEWED

CANDU

Spent CANDU/DUPIC Fuel

LWR

Spent LWR Fuel

Uranium Saving

No Disposal Less

Disposal

CANDU once-through

DUPIC PWR once-through

DUPIC Fuel Fab

On-site Storage

Natural Uranium

AFR Storage

Permanent Disposal

On-site Storage

Permanent Disposal

* DUPIC : Direct use of spent PWR fuel in CANDU reactors

termed in 1991 joint research meeting among KAERI, AECL & US DOS

CONCLUSIONS

1.  With the burden to provide prosperity to more than 220 million people, raising them from lowest electrical energy consumption in Asean region due to limited energy resource and access to electrical energy into a better consumption and access, Indonesia has to search for new and renewable energy resources. Owing to its non-polluting, environmentally friendly nature and cheap electrical energy yield, the nuclear energy has been considered officially as options to share in the future energy mix scenario.

CONCLUSIONS, continued

2. Based on recent study the first nuclear power plants are to be introduced in 2016 at the Muria Peninsula, Central Java which will be added to the national grid existing in Java and Bali.

3. There are still many things to be accomplished, namely the development of infrastructure, strengthening international cooperation, public education, etc.

4.  In essence the major hurdles to realizing nuclear energy generation in Indonesia are in the form two things, namely the public acceptance and the viable financing scheme.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION