nuclear proliferation 2008

7/31/2019 Nuclear Proliferation 2008

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Jordan Noonan

Andrew Lee

Eric Rodriguez

Mike Long


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Thesis

The IAEA and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty represent steps in theright direction for global nuclear

safeguards. These protections, however,are outdated and ineffective in preventingthe proliferation of nuclear weaponry. We

must overhaul current anti-proliferationstrategies in order to mitigate thesesecurity risks.


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The IAEA

The International AtomicEnergy Agency

Created in 1957, as theAtoms for Peaceorganization, within theUN.

3 Main Pillars: (OverseeCompliance with NPT)

Safety and Security

Science and Technology

Safeguards and Verification


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The IAEA (cont.)

STRENGTHS- Grand Bargain

- Creating a channel for cooperativeglobal nuclear research

- 1968 signing of NPT- 1996 Test Ban Treaty

- 1990s 1st Nuclear Weapons FreeZone, in Latin America

- Former Republics of Russiarelinquish all nuclear weaponsback into Russian control.

- 1993 South Africa voluntarilydismantled entire Nuclear weponsprogram.

WEAKNESSES- Inadequate verification and

enforcement provisions.

- Lack of universal export control

system- No Time Table for Disarmament.

- Allows members to withdraw fromthe treaty without penalty.

- Four states with Nuclear weaponsnot signitories of NPT; Isreal,

Pakistan, India, North Korea.


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The Nuclear non-proliferation treaty

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is an international treatydesigned to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.

opened for signature on July 1, 1968.

There are currently 189 countries part of the treaty, five of which have

nuclear weapons: the United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, andChina (the permanent members of the UN Security Council).

3 Pillars of the Treaty; (1) Non-Proliferation, (2) Disarmament, (3) Peacefuluse of Nuclear Technology.

Only four nations with nuclear weapons are not signatories: India, Israel,Pakistan and North Korea.

India and Pakistan both possess and have openly tested nuclear bombs.Israel has had a secretive policy regarding its own nuclear weaponsprogram. North Korea ratified the treaty, violated it, and later withdrew.


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The Khan Network

Abdul Qadeer Khan, the"Godfather" of Pakistan'snuclear weaponsprogram.

Prime Minister Ali Bhuttoappointed Khan to runPakistans nuclearresearch program.

By 1988, he completed 5underground nucleartests.


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The Khan Network (cont.)

Countries associated with: Iraq, Iran, NorthKorea, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan,Malaysia, Indonesia, Algeria, Kuwait, Burma, &

Abu Dhabi

Also linked to Osama bin Laden & Al Qaeda

web of sponsors and suppliers, have linkedcompanies and banks in Europe, groups in Asia

and the Middle East have provided high-techequipment and financing for nuclear weaponsprograms.


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Soviet Union Nukes the Soviet Union had 18,000 nuclear weapons at the height of the Cold

War. a large number are unaccounted for, unsure as to how many are actually

missing. Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) 1993 designed to destroy nuclear

weapons and increase security in the satellite countries of Russia thathoused nuclear weapons but it is not enough.

almost impossible to keep into account of every single nuclear weapon fromthe Soviet Union and on the market.

Dirty Bombs weaker version of a nuclear bomb

made from radioactive waste

easier to penetrate civilian nuclear waste facilities than a weapons facilities

not a weapon of mass destruction but a weapon of mass disruption


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Real Threat of Nuclear Attack?

Construction of a bombwould take up to fourmonths.

Size of technical team wouldhave to be immense.

Constant maintenance ofnukes takes a lot ofresources.

Obtaining the materialsnecessary for making abomb is difficult to achievewithout arousing suspicion.

Obtaining nuclear fuel isalmost exclusively available

to large states.

Rogue states can bar IGOslike the IAEA frominspecting their nuclearfacilities.

Terrorists can still createlots of dirty bombs or obtainnuclear weapons and deploythem rapidly.

Very little deterrence forterrorists in using nuclearweapons.


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Nuclear Weapons and TerroristOrganizations

Acquisition of Weapons/Materials

Purchase off the black-market or rogue states

Seizure of a nuclear stock pile by force or theft

Terrorist Organizations

al-Qaeda

Hezbollah


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Nuclear Terrorism

States Linked toTerror Organizations:

Libya, Iran, PakistanSyria and North Korea

-Iran; links to Hezbollahanti-Israeli rhetoric

-Pakistan; Instability inthe nation of al-

Qeadas operationsbase

TerroristOrganizations as aThreat Doctrine of MAD no

longer shared

Organizational wealthin finance

Validation of terrorists

political agendasthrough the bomb


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Thesis

The IAEA and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty represent steps in theright direction for global nuclear

safeguards. These protections, however,are outdated and ineffective in preventingthe proliferation of nuclear weaponry. We

must overhaul current anti-proliferationstrategies in order to mitigate thesesecurity risks.


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Can Proliferation be Stopped?

Realist Rational deterrence

theory.

Mutually assureddestruction (MAD).

Proliferation =international stability.

Neo-liberalInstitutionalism Domestic determinants

Economic and political

Role of internationalinstitutions NPT, IAEA, and U.N.


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New Anti-Proliferation Strategies

The Graham Allison Plan

No loose nukes

Bolster security not only ofnuclear weapons, but alsocivilian nuclear material.

No new nascent nukes

Barr production of newuranium and plutonium.

No new nuclear weapons

Halt the production of anynew nuclear weaponsfrom current states andprevent new nuclearstates.


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Anti-Proliferation Strategies (cont.)

Contain North Koreaand Iran If North Korea and/or

Iran obtain capable

nuclear technology,regional arms racescould spell thedissolution of the NPT. South Korea, Japan,

Middle East

Use economic andpolitical pressures.


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Works Cited

Albright, David. "Uncovering the Nuclear Black Market: WorkingToward." Institute for Nuclear Materials Management. Institutefor Nuclear Materials Management (INMM)45th AnnualMeeting. Orlando, FL. 02 July 2004. 05 Apr. 2008.

Cooper, Mary H. "Nuclear Proliferation and Terorism: Can "Rogue"States and Terrorists Aquire Nuclear Weapons?" CongressionalQuarterly 14 (2004): 299-319. 05 Apr. 2008.

"Nuclear Issues: Facts At a Glance." CDI. 04 Fe

b. 2003. Center for Defense Information. 05 Apr. 2008.

Traynor, Ian. "Nuclear Chief Tells of Black Market in BombEquipment." The Guardian. 26 Jan. 2004. 05 Apr. 2008.

nuclear proliferation 2008

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