ocqueville doug groh 40 west 57 th street new york, ny 10019 (212) 698 – 0757...
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ocqueville
ocqueville
Doug Groh40 West 57th Street New York, NY 10019(212) 698 – [email protected]
TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP
December 2009
Observations Made In Search of the Elusive
“Ten-Bagger”
Junior Gold Mining Company Stock
New York SME; December 8, 2009
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• NOTICE• THIS PRESENTATION SHALL NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY
ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENTS. SUCH OFFERS MAY ONLY BE MADE AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED OFFEREE RECEIVES DEFINITIVE DOCUMENTATION THAT SETS FORTH INFORMATION (INCLUDING INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE, POLICIES, RISK FACTORS, FEES, TAX IMPLICATIONS AND RELEVANT QUALIFICATIONS) CONCERNING THE RELEVANT SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT. IN ADDITION, SUCH OFFERS WIL ONLY BE MADE IN THOSE JURISDICTIONS WHERE PERMITTED BY LAW. TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP (“TAM”) WILL NOT OFFER, SOLICIT OFFERS TO BUY, OR SELL ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT IN ANY JURISDICTION IN WHICH SUCH OFFER, SOLICITATION OR SALE WOULD BE UNLAWFUL UNTIL THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION HAVE BEEN SATISFIED.
• THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS PROVIDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS FINANCIAL, TAX OR OTHER ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE SECURITIES OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENTS. NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND ARE INTENDED OR SHOULD BE INFERRED WITH RESPECT TO THE ECONOMIC, REGULATORY, TAX OR OTHER CONSEQUENCES THAT MAY RESULT FROM PARTICIPATION IN ANY INVESTMENTS. FURTHER, IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENTS IDENTIFIED IN THIS PRESENTATION HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE PROFITABLE. YOU SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND CONDUCT YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE PRIOR TO INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENTS.
• IN CONSIDERING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY PROJECTIONS REGARDING POSSIBLE ECONOMIC OR RELATED DEVELOPMENTS, PERSONS REVIEWING THIS PRESENTATION MUST BEAR IN MIND THAT CERTAIN SUCH INFORMATION CONSTITUTES “FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS,” WHICH CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE USE OF FORWARD-LOOKING TERMINOLOGY SUCH AS “MAY,” “WILL,” “SHOULD,” “EXPECT,” “ANTICIPATE,” “PROJECT,” “ESTIMATE,” “INTEND,” “CONTINUE” OR “BELIEVE” OR THE NEGATIVES THEREOF OR OTHER VARIATIONS THEREON OR OTHER COMPARABLE TERMINOLOGY. DUE TO VARIOUS RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, ACTUAL EVENTS OR RESULTS OR THE PERFORMANCE OF ANY INVESTMENT MAY DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE REFLECTED OR CONTEMPLATED IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS MEMORANDUM ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS MADE BASED UPON, AMONG OTHER THINGS, TAM’S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN ITS RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. TAM BELIEVES THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND ITS CONTROL, TAM CANNOT ASSURE YOU THAT ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS HEREIN WILL PROVE CORRECT. CERTAIN FACTUAL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN MAY HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM PUBLISHED SOURCES PREPARED BY OTHER PARTIES AND HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY TAM OR ANY AFFILIATE. ALL OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE THE SOLE OPINION OF TAM AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. STATEMENTS IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE MADE AS OF DECEMBER 2009 UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED HEREIN, AND THE DELIVERY OF THE PRESENTATION AT ANY TIME SHALL NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES CREATE AN IMPLICATION THAT THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS CORRECT AS OF ANY TIME SUBSEQUENT TO SUCH DATE.
• NEITHER TAM, NOR ITS AFFILIATES, GUARANTEES THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION. ACCORDINGLY, NEITHER TAM NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, OR ANY OF ITS EMPLOYEES SHALL BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANYONE ELSE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGES FROM USE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION.
• SK 52276 0001 1058685
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Tocqueville Asset Management
Tocqueville is a healthy and durable franchise based in New York, with an affiliated advisor in Paris, France.
Employee-owned limited partnership, founded in 1985 to manage private accounts for wealthy families, with an absolute return investment philosophy.
Separately managed accounts, mutual funds and hedge funds based on a contrarian / value-oriented investment style with a bottom-up stock selection approach using proprietary, fundamental research.
Currently more than US$7.7 billion in client assets under management of which $1.5 billion is in gold and gold equities.
Strong long-term investment results.
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U.S. Dollar - On Credit Watch?
1) Negative Trade Balance
2) Weak Economy
3) Rising Inflation / Deflation Concerns
4) Negative Real Interest Rates
5) Fiscal Disorder - Socialization of Credit
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The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $1.2 trillion over the last fourteen months.
Fed’s Balance Sheet: 1930’s vs. Today
9/10/08$888
$2,18712/02/09
Source: Bloomberg; Bianco Research; Friedman, Milton, & Schwartz, Anna Jacobson (2008). The Great Contraction, 1929-1933, 65.
146%
17.5%
1930’s
$100
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
$2,100
$2,300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Bill
ion
s o
f U
SD
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pe
rce
nt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Go
ld
Quality Spread: 1.17% Gold: $1,174.2
Credit Spreads are a Proxy for Risk Perception(Gold Correlates Positively)
Quality Spread & GoldMoody's Seasoned Corp Aaa vs Corp Baa
Jan 1978 - Nov 27, 2009
Source: Fred Kalkstein
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Gold – A Hybrid Commodity
Source: World Gold Council, GFMS Ltd.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Total Above Ground Stocks Annual Supply Flows Annual Demand Flows
To
nn
es
Capital Market View: A Store of Value
Commodity View:
Supply = Demand
Lost & Unaccounted
Other Fabrication
Private Investment
Official Holdings
JewelleryMine production/producer hedging
Official sector sales
Old gold scrap
JewelleryIndustrial & dentalBar & coin retail investment
Other retail investmentETFs & similar
Data: as of YE 2008
Conclusion:
Capital market flows exert more influence on the gold price than traditional supply and demand flows.
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Capital Market Cycles
Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, LP
Conclusion: 1) Gold does best during credit contractions.2) Cycles are multi-year.3) Cycles end when 1 ounce of gold equals the DJIA.
The Dow/Gold Ratio (DJIA divided by Gold Price)1915 - 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
DowRising
DowRising
Dow Rising
DowFalling
DowFalling
DowFalling
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THE ATTRACTION THE ATTRACTION OF JUNIOR GOLD OF JUNIOR GOLD MINING STOCKSMINING STOCKS
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Rationale for Gold Mining Shares
1) They are claims on un-mined gold.
2) Offer dynamic exposure to potential upside in gold bullion.
3) Possible value enhancement through discoveries and reserve growth.
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Discovery IIIIIIIIIII
ProductionDevelopmentIIIIIIIIIII
Valuation Parameters
Market Cap. per AU oz. Reserve
Net Asset Value per share
Geologic Potential
Market Cap. per AU oz. Resource
Net Asset Value per share
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Price / Cash Flow per share
Price / Earnings per share
Market Cap. per AU oz. Reserve
Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Stock
Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, LP
INVESTMENT SWEET SPOTS
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Valuation of Equities at Different Stages of Evolution
Source: RBC Capital Markets, Tocqueville Asset Management, LP
~~
~
~
~
Investment Appeal of Early Stage Gold Companies
$180
$5
$100
$270
$15
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Value of a Land Package perGold Ounce
Discovery Cost per Gold Ounce Value of a Developing Depositper Gold Ounce
Acquisition Value for a GrowingCompany per Gold Ounce
Market Value for an OperatingCompany per Gold Ounce
Start-Up Discovery Development Production
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Source: Bloomberg
XAU (PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index) as a Ratio of Spot Gold ($/oz)
Gold Stocks Represent Historic Values
Same as 1929?
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Dec
-83
Dec
-84
Dec
-85
Dec
-86
Dec
-87
Dec
-88
Dec
-89
Dec
-90
Dec
-91
Dec
-92
Dec
-93
Nov
-94
Nov
-95
Oct
-96
Oct
-97
Sep
-98
Sep
-99
Aug
-00
Aug
-01
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
3
Jun-
04
May
-05
May
-06
Apr
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
(Dec. 19, 1983 – Dec. 4, 2009)
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Management & Strategy: Experience and how they’ll create value,
now!
Minerals & Mines: Whatever’s hot or revisiting last cycle’s
assets
Money – Capital Needs and Potential: Money Here / Money There –
“Show Me the Money”!
The Strategy, The Assets, The Value Creation….. The Opportunity
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• Drill for Fun or Fund to Drill
• Adding Value with Good Intentions but Then What?
• “It’s got to be worth something, and so, somebody will
…..Give Us Some Money”
….Take Care of Our Problems”
…….Take Us Out of Our Misery”
Junior Gold Mining Company Strategies
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• Capital Needs / Potential Share Dilution
• Measuring Consistency (in the Results and the Strategy)
• Metrics:Market Value per ounce
Net Asset Value per share
Cash Flow per share
Internal Rate of Return / Return on Capital
Determining What’s it Worth: A Matrix of Meaningful Metrics
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Ten-Baggers That Have Done It and How
International Tower HillManagement: “Been There” and Livengood
Colombia Gold Fields / Medoro ResourcesMinerals / Mines: “More Where That’s From”
OsiskoMoney: “Cash Flow or M&A; Leverage Either Way”
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Source: Fred Kalkstein
* Real Rate = 90-Day T-Bill Minus LTM CPI
* Real interest rates plotted inversely (left hand scale)
Conclusion: Gold benefits from negative real interest rates.
Gold & Real RatesJan 1970 - Oct 2009
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Go
ld P
ric
e
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Re
al R
ate
(in
ve
rte
d)
GOLD 1039.7 Realrate: 0.27%
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Gold is Cheap Relative to Financial Assets*
20%
5%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1934 1982 Q2'09
Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, LP
*Market Cap. of Above Ground Gold/ U.S. Financial Assets
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Incremental gold required is 33,000 tonnes of gold, more than exists in the known float.
Assumptions:
1) No price impact
2) Based on the 12-month average gold price to 30 September 2009 of $897/oz.
3) Estimated global financial assets of $87.6 trillion as of 2007.
Source: World Gold Council
Potential Impact of a 1.1% Increase in Investment Allocation to Gold
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Exploration expenditures are rising but discoveries are not keeping up with production
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Exploration has seen technological advances and greater expenditures
… but exploration risks remain high with less success
… this means value creation in the ground is becoming more expensive
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Gold mine development is declining too
Mine development is taking longer, is more capital intensive and there are fewer large projects
Generally, the attractive mine projects are located in remote and politically difficult areas
Resource ore grades are lower, which means they are more expensive to mine
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“The central element in the economic problem of money is theobjective exchange-value of money, popularly called its purchasing power.
This is the necessary starting-point of all discussion; for it is only in connection with its objective exchange-value that those peculiar properties of money that
have differentiated it from commodities are conspicuous.”
Ludwig Von Mises: The Theory of Money and Credit
Gold in Transition: Valued in Transactions -- An Evolving Role