ocqueville doug groh 40 west 57 th street new york, ny 10019 (212) 698 – 0757...

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ocqueville ocqueville Doug Groh 40 West 57 th Street New York, NY 10019 (212) 698 – 0757 dgroh@tocqueville. com TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP December 2009 Observations Made In Search of the Elusive “Ten-Bagger” Junior Gold Mining Company Stock New York SME; December 8, 2009

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ocqueville

ocqueville

Doug Groh40 West 57th Street New York, NY 10019(212) 698 – [email protected]

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP

December 2009

Observations Made In Search of the Elusive

“Ten-Bagger”

Junior Gold Mining Company Stock

New York SME; December 8, 2009

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• NOTICE• THIS PRESENTATION SHALL NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY

ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENTS. SUCH OFFERS MAY ONLY BE MADE AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED OFFEREE RECEIVES DEFINITIVE DOCUMENTATION THAT SETS FORTH INFORMATION (INCLUDING INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE, POLICIES, RISK FACTORS, FEES, TAX IMPLICATIONS AND RELEVANT QUALIFICATIONS) CONCERNING THE RELEVANT SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT. IN ADDITION, SUCH OFFERS WIL ONLY BE MADE IN THOSE JURISDICTIONS WHERE PERMITTED BY LAW. TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP (“TAM”) WILL NOT OFFER, SOLICIT OFFERS TO BUY, OR SELL ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT IN ANY JURISDICTION IN WHICH SUCH OFFER, SOLICITATION OR SALE WOULD BE UNLAWFUL UNTIL THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION HAVE BEEN SATISFIED.

• THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS PROVIDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS FINANCIAL, TAX OR OTHER ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE SECURITIES OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENTS. NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND ARE INTENDED OR SHOULD BE INFERRED WITH RESPECT TO THE ECONOMIC, REGULATORY, TAX OR OTHER CONSEQUENCES THAT MAY RESULT FROM PARTICIPATION IN ANY INVESTMENTS. FURTHER, IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENTS IDENTIFIED IN THIS PRESENTATION HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE PROFITABLE. YOU SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND CONDUCT YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE PRIOR TO INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENTS.

• IN CONSIDERING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY PROJECTIONS REGARDING POSSIBLE ECONOMIC OR RELATED DEVELOPMENTS, PERSONS REVIEWING THIS PRESENTATION MUST BEAR IN MIND THAT CERTAIN SUCH INFORMATION CONSTITUTES “FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS,” WHICH CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE USE OF FORWARD-LOOKING TERMINOLOGY SUCH AS “MAY,” “WILL,” “SHOULD,” “EXPECT,” “ANTICIPATE,” “PROJECT,” “ESTIMATE,” “INTEND,” “CONTINUE” OR “BELIEVE” OR THE NEGATIVES THEREOF OR OTHER VARIATIONS THEREON OR OTHER COMPARABLE TERMINOLOGY. DUE TO VARIOUS RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, ACTUAL EVENTS OR RESULTS OR THE PERFORMANCE OF ANY INVESTMENT MAY DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE REFLECTED OR CONTEMPLATED IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS MEMORANDUM ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS MADE BASED UPON, AMONG OTHER THINGS, TAM’S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN ITS RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. TAM BELIEVES THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND ITS CONTROL, TAM CANNOT ASSURE YOU THAT ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS HEREIN WILL PROVE CORRECT. CERTAIN FACTUAL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN MAY HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM PUBLISHED SOURCES PREPARED BY OTHER PARTIES AND HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY TAM OR ANY AFFILIATE. ALL OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE THE SOLE OPINION OF TAM AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. STATEMENTS IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE MADE AS OF DECEMBER 2009 UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED HEREIN, AND THE DELIVERY OF THE PRESENTATION AT ANY TIME SHALL NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES CREATE AN IMPLICATION THAT THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS CORRECT AS OF ANY TIME SUBSEQUENT TO SUCH DATE.

• NEITHER TAM, NOR ITS AFFILIATES, GUARANTEES THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION. ACCORDINGLY, NEITHER TAM NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, OR ANY OF ITS EMPLOYEES SHALL BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANYONE ELSE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGES FROM USE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION.

• SK 52276 0001 1058685

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Tocqueville Asset Management

Tocqueville is a healthy and durable franchise based in New York, with an affiliated advisor in Paris, France.

Employee-owned limited partnership, founded in 1985 to manage private accounts for wealthy families, with an absolute return investment philosophy.

Separately managed accounts, mutual funds and hedge funds based on a contrarian / value-oriented investment style with a bottom-up stock selection approach using proprietary, fundamental research.

Currently more than US$7.7 billion in client assets under management of which $1.5 billion is in gold and gold equities.

Strong long-term investment results.

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A A GOLDEN GOLDEN

ARGUMENTARGUMENT

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U.S. Dollar - On Credit Watch?

1) Negative Trade Balance

2) Weak Economy

3) Rising Inflation / Deflation Concerns

4) Negative Real Interest Rates

5) Fiscal Disorder - Socialization of Credit

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The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $1.2 trillion over the last fourteen months.

Fed’s Balance Sheet: 1930’s vs. Today

9/10/08$888

$2,18712/02/09

Source: Bloomberg; Bianco Research; Friedman, Milton, & Schwartz, Anna Jacobson (2008). The Great Contraction, 1929-1933, 65.

146%

17.5%

1930’s

$100

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Bill

ion

s o

f U

SD

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0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Pe

rce

nt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Go

ld

Quality Spread: 1.17% Gold: $1,174.2

Credit Spreads are a Proxy for Risk Perception(Gold Correlates Positively)

Quality Spread & GoldMoody's Seasoned Corp Aaa vs Corp Baa

Jan 1978 - Nov 27, 2009

Source: Fred Kalkstein

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Gold – A Hybrid Commodity

Source: World Gold Council, GFMS Ltd.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Total Above Ground Stocks Annual Supply Flows Annual Demand Flows

To

nn

es

Capital Market View: A Store of Value

Commodity View:

Supply = Demand

Lost & Unaccounted

Other Fabrication

Private Investment

Official Holdings

JewelleryMine production/producer hedging

Official sector sales

Old gold scrap

JewelleryIndustrial & dentalBar & coin retail investment

Other retail investmentETFs & similar

Data: as of YE 2008

Conclusion:

Capital market flows exert more influence on the gold price than traditional supply and demand flows.

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Capital Market Cycles

Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, LP

Conclusion: 1) Gold does best during credit contractions.2) Cycles are multi-year.3) Cycles end when 1 ounce of gold equals the DJIA.

The Dow/Gold Ratio (DJIA divided by Gold Price)1915 - 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

DowRising

DowRising

Dow Rising

DowFalling

DowFalling

DowFalling

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THE ATTRACTION THE ATTRACTION OF JUNIOR GOLD OF JUNIOR GOLD MINING STOCKSMINING STOCKS

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Rationale for Gold Mining Shares

1) They are claims on un-mined gold.

2) Offer dynamic exposure to potential upside in gold bullion.

3) Possible value enhancement through discoveries and reserve growth.

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Discovery IIIIIIIIIII

ProductionDevelopmentIIIIIIIIIII

Valuation Parameters

Market Cap. per AU oz. Reserve

Net Asset Value per share

Geologic Potential

Market Cap. per AU oz. Resource

Net Asset Value per share

Enterprise Value / EBITDA

Price / Cash Flow per share

Price / Earnings per share

Market Cap. per AU oz. Reserve

Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Stock

Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, LP

INVESTMENT SWEET SPOTS

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Valuation of Equities at Different Stages of Evolution

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Tocqueville Asset Management, LP

~~

~

~

~

Investment Appeal of Early Stage Gold Companies

$180

$5

$100

$270

$15

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Value of a Land Package perGold Ounce

Discovery Cost per Gold Ounce Value of a Developing Depositper Gold Ounce

Acquisition Value for a GrowingCompany per Gold Ounce

Market Value for an OperatingCompany per Gold Ounce

Start-Up Discovery Development Production

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Source: Bloomberg

XAU (PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index) as a Ratio of Spot Gold ($/oz)

Gold Stocks Represent Historic Values

Same as 1929?

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Dec

-83

Dec

-84

Dec

-85

Dec

-86

Dec

-87

Dec

-88

Dec

-89

Dec

-90

Dec

-91

Dec

-92

Dec

-93

Nov

-94

Nov

-95

Oct

-96

Oct

-97

Sep

-98

Sep

-99

Aug

-00

Aug

-01

Jul-0

2

Jul-0

3

Jun-

04

May

-05

May

-06

Apr

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

(Dec. 19, 1983 – Dec. 4, 2009)

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Management & Strategy: Experience and how they’ll create value,

now!

Minerals & Mines: Whatever’s hot or revisiting last cycle’s

assets

Money – Capital Needs and Potential: Money Here / Money There –

“Show Me the Money”!

The Strategy, The Assets, The Value Creation….. The Opportunity

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• Drill for Fun or Fund to Drill

• Adding Value with Good Intentions but Then What?

• “It’s got to be worth something, and so, somebody will

…..Give Us Some Money”

….Take Care of Our Problems”

…….Take Us Out of Our Misery”

Junior Gold Mining Company Strategies

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• Capital Needs / Potential Share Dilution

• Measuring Consistency (in the Results and the Strategy)

• Metrics:Market Value per ounce

Net Asset Value per share

Cash Flow per share

Internal Rate of Return / Return on Capital

Determining What’s it Worth: A Matrix of Meaningful Metrics

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Ten-Baggers That Have Done It and How

International Tower HillManagement: “Been There” and Livengood

Colombia Gold Fields / Medoro ResourcesMinerals / Mines: “More Where That’s From”

OsiskoMoney: “Cash Flow or M&A; Leverage Either Way”

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Source: Fred Kalkstein

* Real Rate = 90-Day T-Bill Minus LTM CPI

* Real interest rates plotted inversely (left hand scale)

Conclusion: Gold benefits from negative real interest rates.

Gold & Real RatesJan 1970 - Oct 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Go

ld P

ric

e

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Re

al R

ate

(in

ve

rte

d)

GOLD 1039.7 Realrate: 0.27%

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A A GOLDEN FUTUREGOLDEN FUTURE

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Gold is Cheap Relative to Financial Assets*

20%

5%

22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1934 1982 Q2'09

Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, LP

*Market Cap. of Above Ground Gold/ U.S. Financial Assets

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Incremental gold required is 33,000 tonnes of gold, more than exists in the known float.

Assumptions:

1) No price impact

2) Based on the 12-month average gold price to 30 September 2009 of $897/oz.

3) Estimated global financial assets of $87.6 trillion as of 2007.

Source: World Gold Council

Potential Impact of a 1.1% Increase in Investment Allocation to Gold

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Exploration expenditures are rising but discoveries are not keeping up with production

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Exploration has seen technological advances and greater expenditures

… but exploration risks remain high with less success

… this means value creation in the ground is becoming more expensive

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Gold mine development is declining too

Mine development is taking longer, is more capital intensive and there are fewer large projects

Generally, the attractive mine projects are located in remote and politically difficult areas

Resource ore grades are lower, which means they are more expensive to mine

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Juniors tend to find the gold projects of tomorrow

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VSE, CDNX and TSX Venture Exchange (January 1983 to November 2009)

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“The central element in the economic problem of money is theobjective exchange-value of money, popularly called its purchasing power.

This is the necessary starting-point of all discussion; for it is only in connection with its objective exchange-value that those peculiar properties of money that

have differentiated it from commodities are conspicuous.”

Ludwig Von Mises: The Theory of Money and Credit

Gold in Transition: Valued in Transactions -- An Evolving Role

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Golden Views or Fools for Gold

“The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit”

Ralph Waldo Emerson

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."

Alexis de Tocqueville