october 26, 2005 icf consulting
DESCRIPTION
RGGI Electricity Sector Modeling Results RPS Sensitivity & Very High Emissions Reference and Package Cases. October 26, 2005 ICF Consulting. Outline. RGGI Reference Case with 50% RPS Sensitivity RGGI Very High Emissions Reference Case RGGI Very High Emissions Reference and Package Cases - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
October 26, 2005
ICF Consulting
RGGIElectricity Sector Modeling ResultsRPS Sensitivity & Very High Emissions
Reference and Package Cases
2
Outline
RGGI Reference Case with 50% RPS Sensitivity
RGGI Very High Emissions Reference Case
RGGI Very High Emissions Reference and Package Cases
RGGI Very High Emissions Package Cases & Standard Package Case
RGGI Reference Case with 50% RPS Sensitivity
4
RPS Sensitivity Overview
The Reference Case 50% RPS Sensitivity Case includes two changes to the Reference Case:
• The RPS generation requirement is set to 50% of Reference Case levels in every year;
• The RGGI states can generate no more than that 50% level, even if incremental renewable builds would be economic; and
• Renewable capacity additions in New Hampshire are limited to 85 MW cumulatively in 2010 with no additional capacity permitted beyond 2010.
5
RGGI Capacity AdditionsReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35R
efer
ence
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
2006 2012 2024
GW
Other RenewablesWindGasNuclear
6
RGGI Generation MixReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
-
100
200
300
400
500
600R
efer
ence
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
2006 2012 2024
TWh
Net Imports
Other Renewables
Wind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
7
RGGI EmissionsReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
Reference
Ref - 50% RPS
8
RGGI Energy PricesReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
Reference
Ref - 50% RPS
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
9
RGGI Net ImportsReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
Reference
Ref - 50% RPS
RGGI Very High Emissions Reference Case
compared toReference & High Emissions Reference
Cases
11
Very High Emissions Case Overview
The Very High Emissions Reference Case is based on the 50% RPS Reference Case above and assumes:
• Sustained $11/MMBtu Henry Hub natural gas prices throughout the time horizon;
• Coal builds allowed in RGGI;
• As in the 50% RPS Case, renewables generation in RGGI constrained at the 50% RPS levels, even when otherwise economic; and
• Limited renewable builds in New Hampshire.
The results of the Very High Emissions Reference Case are compared below to the RGGI Reference Case and the High Emissions Reference Case (with $7/MMBtu sustained gas prices).
12
RGGI Capacity Additions
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
2006 2012 2024
GW
Other Renewables
Wind
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
13
RGGI Generation Mix
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
2006 2012 2024
TWh
Net Imports
Other Renewables
Wind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
14
RGGI Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
ReferenceRef+Hi EMSRef+Very Hi EMS
15
RGGI Energy Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
ReferenceRef+Hi EMSRef+Very Hi EMS
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
16
RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
ReferenceRef+Hi EMSRef+Very Hi EMS
RGGI Very High Emissions Reference &
Package Cases
18
Very High Emissions Package Cases Overview
Three policy scenarios were run off of the Very High Emissions Reference Case. In each of these cases, the Package was defined as:
• CO2 cap phasing from stabilization at current levels beginning in 2008 to 10% below current levels in 2020;
• Offsets limited to 50% of required reductions (Very High Reference emissions minus cap levels) in each year; and
• Sustained efficiency investment at “1x” levels (except in “with CBA” cases, as described below).
The three Very High Emissions Package Cases were:
• Package without CBA – assumes Package requirements above without any adjustment made for funds dedicated to CBA;
• Package with CBA – assumes same as above with 25% of allocation value dedicated to incremental energy efficiency investment; and
• Package with CBA with unlimited offsets at $6.50/ton – assumes same as Package with CBA case except that an unlimited number of offsets are available for $6.50/ton, effectively providing a backstop to the CO 2 allowance price. (NOTE: CBA value in this case differs from that above because of different CO 2 allowance price trajectories.)
19
RGGI Capacity Additions
-5
10152025303540
VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op
2006 2012 2024
GW
Other RenewablesWindGasCoalNuclear
20
RGGI Generation Mix
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op
2006 2012 2024
TWh
Net Imports
Other Renewables
Wind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
21
RGGI Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
VHiEmis RefVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
22
RGGI CO2 Allowance Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/To
n
VHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
23
RGGI Energy Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
VHiEmis RefVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
24
RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
VHiEmis RefVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
RGGI Very High Emissions Package
Casescompared toPackage Case
26
RGGI CO2 Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/To
n
PackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
27
RGGI Energy Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
ReferencePackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
28
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Average
% C
hang
e fr
om R
elat
ed R
efer
ence
Cas
e
Package (Ref.)Package (High Ems Ref.)Package (V High Ems Ref.)
Change in RGGI Energy Prices Relative to Related Reference Cases
29
RGGI Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
ReferenceVHiEmis RefPackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
30
RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
PackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
31
RGGI Annual Offsets
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
Package
VHiEmis Pkg w/o CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
32
RGGI Cumulative Offsets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
Package
VHiEmis Pkg w/o CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
33
2015 Cumulative CO2 ReductionsRGGI and Eastern Interconnect/Canada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
Package VHiEmis Pkg w/oCBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAw/6.50 backstop
Mill
ion
Tons
Offsets
On SystemReductions
34
2021 Cumulative CO2 ReductionsRGGI and Eastern Interconnect/Canada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
Package VHiEmis Pkg w/oCBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAw/6.50 backstop
Mill
ion
Tons
Offsets
On SystemReductions