Download - October 26, 2005 ICF Consulting
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October 26, 2005
ICF Consulting
RGGIElectricity Sector Modeling ResultsRPS Sensitivity & Very High Emissions
Reference and Package Cases
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2
Outline
RGGI Reference Case with 50% RPS Sensitivity
RGGI Very High Emissions Reference Case
RGGI Very High Emissions Reference and Package Cases
RGGI Very High Emissions Package Cases & Standard Package Case
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RGGI Reference Case with 50% RPS Sensitivity
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RPS Sensitivity Overview
The Reference Case 50% RPS Sensitivity Case includes two changes to the Reference Case:
• The RPS generation requirement is set to 50% of Reference Case levels in every year;
• The RGGI states can generate no more than that 50% level, even if incremental renewable builds would be economic; and
• Renewable capacity additions in New Hampshire are limited to 85 MW cumulatively in 2010 with no additional capacity permitted beyond 2010.
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RGGI Capacity AdditionsReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35R
efer
ence
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
2006 2012 2024
GW
Other RenewablesWindGasNuclear
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RGGI Generation MixReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
-
100
200
300
400
500
600R
efer
ence
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
- 50
%R
PS
2006 2012 2024
TWh
Net Imports
Other Renewables
Wind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
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RGGI EmissionsReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
Reference
Ref - 50% RPS
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RGGI Energy PricesReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
Reference
Ref - 50% RPS
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
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RGGI Net ImportsReference v. Reference w/ 50% RPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
Reference
Ref - 50% RPS
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RGGI Very High Emissions Reference Case
compared toReference & High Emissions Reference
Cases
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Very High Emissions Case Overview
The Very High Emissions Reference Case is based on the 50% RPS Reference Case above and assumes:
• Sustained $11/MMBtu Henry Hub natural gas prices throughout the time horizon;
• Coal builds allowed in RGGI;
• As in the 50% RPS Case, renewables generation in RGGI constrained at the 50% RPS levels, even when otherwise economic; and
• Limited renewable builds in New Hampshire.
The results of the Very High Emissions Reference Case are compared below to the RGGI Reference Case and the High Emissions Reference Case (with $7/MMBtu sustained gas prices).
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RGGI Capacity Additions
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
2006 2012 2024
GW
Other Renewables
Wind
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
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RGGI Generation Mix
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
Ref
eren
ce
Ref
+Hi
EM
S
Ref
+Ver
yH
i EM
S
2006 2012 2024
TWh
Net Imports
Other Renewables
Wind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
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RGGI Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
ReferenceRef+Hi EMSRef+Very Hi EMS
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RGGI Energy Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
ReferenceRef+Hi EMSRef+Very Hi EMS
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
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RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
ReferenceRef+Hi EMSRef+Very Hi EMS
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RGGI Very High Emissions Reference &
Package Cases
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Very High Emissions Package Cases Overview
Three policy scenarios were run off of the Very High Emissions Reference Case. In each of these cases, the Package was defined as:
• CO2 cap phasing from stabilization at current levels beginning in 2008 to 10% below current levels in 2020;
• Offsets limited to 50% of required reductions (Very High Reference emissions minus cap levels) in each year; and
• Sustained efficiency investment at “1x” levels (except in “with CBA” cases, as described below).
The three Very High Emissions Package Cases were:
• Package without CBA – assumes Package requirements above without any adjustment made for funds dedicated to CBA;
• Package with CBA – assumes same as above with 25% of allocation value dedicated to incremental energy efficiency investment; and
• Package with CBA with unlimited offsets at $6.50/ton – assumes same as Package with CBA case except that an unlimited number of offsets are available for $6.50/ton, effectively providing a backstop to the CO 2 allowance price. (NOTE: CBA value in this case differs from that above because of different CO 2 allowance price trajectories.)
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RGGI Capacity Additions
-5
10152025303540
VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op
2006 2012 2024
GW
Other RenewablesWindGasCoalNuclear
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RGGI Generation Mix
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op VH
iEm
is R
ef
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/o C
BA
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A
VH
iEm
is P
kg w
/ CB
A w
/6.5
0ba
ckst
op
2006 2012 2024
TWh
Net Imports
Other Renewables
Wind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
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RGGI Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
VHiEmis RefVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI CO2 Allowance Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/To
n
VHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI Energy Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
VHiEmis RefVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
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RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
VHiEmis RefVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI Very High Emissions Package
Casescompared toPackage Case
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RGGI CO2 Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/To
n
PackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI Energy Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
ReferencePackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
NOTE: Energy prices as shown here include annual capacity payments spread over hours of the year.
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Average
% C
hang
e fr
om R
elat
ed R
efer
ence
Cas
e
Package (Ref.)Package (High Ems Ref.)Package (V High Ems Ref.)
Change in RGGI Energy Prices Relative to Related Reference Cases
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RGGI Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
ReferenceVHiEmis RefPackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TWh
PackageVHiEmis Pkg w/o CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAVHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI Annual Offsets
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
Package
VHiEmis Pkg w/o CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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RGGI Cumulative Offsets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Tons
Package
VHiEmis Pkg w/o CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA w/6.50 backstop
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2015 Cumulative CO2 ReductionsRGGI and Eastern Interconnect/Canada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
Package VHiEmis Pkg w/oCBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAw/6.50 backstop
Mill
ion
Tons
Offsets
On SystemReductions
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2021 Cumulative CO2 ReductionsRGGI and Eastern Interconnect/Canada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
RGGI EI &Canada
Package VHiEmis Pkg w/oCBA
VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBA VHiEmis Pkg w/ CBAw/6.50 backstop
Mill
ion
Tons
Offsets
On SystemReductions