october 30 8:15 pm cuvdap response team guagua pichincha activity - new bulge data received. crater...

October 30 8:15 PMCUVDAP RESPONSE TEAM

GUAGUA PICHINCHA ACTIVITY

- New bulge data received. Crater bulge has risen up to 160 feet in elevation in the past 7 days. Seismic data show earthquake activity is strongest less than 3 km beneath the summit and may even be located within the cone itself. ALERT LEVEL UPDATE REQUESTED

Working seismic Stations:

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>M2.5 events over past hour:

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Eruptions in last 24 hours:

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Days until budget runs out:

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- New bulge data received. Crater bulge has risen up to 160 feet in elevation in the past 7 days. Seismic data shows earthquake activity is strongest less than 3 km beneath the summit and may even be located within the cone itself. ALERT LEVEL UPDATE REQUESTED

- Recorded 2 new seismic events, both centered approximately 2.5 km beneath the summit. The second earthquake was followed by a short harmonic tremor that lasted only 30 seconds.


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- New bulge data received. Crater bulge has risen up to 160 feet in elevation in the past 7 days. Seismic data shows earthquake activity is strongest less than 3 km beneath the summit and may even be located within the cone itself. ALERT LEVEL UPDATE REQUESTED

- Recorded 2 new seismic events, both centered approximately 2.5 km beneath the summit. The second earthquake was followed by a short burst of harmonic tremor that lasted only 30 seconds.

- Seismic station PIC’s battery has died. Next available flight to replace it will be in about 24 hours. Two more moderate earthquakes last hour.




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- Considerable seismic activity over the last hour, 5 significant events were recorded on top of the general background seismicity (small events) that has been seen for the past several weeks.

November 1 12:15 AMCUVDAP RESPONSE TEAM



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- Another 5 moderate quakes jolted the mountain this hour and their locations seem to be focused in the region 2-3 km beneath summit of the volcano.




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- Another 5 moderate quakes jolted the mountain this hour and their locations seem to be condensing in the region 2-3 km beneath summit of the volcano.

- Continued moderate/heavy seismic activity.




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- The amount of activity ramped up once again. Especially strong readings are coming from station BIS, the closest station to the volcano. Shallow and deep quakes still seem to be converging on the same focus.




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- Views of the volcano are still impossible because of the time of day. No news of the impact of this increase in seismicity on the volcano. The Mayor of Quito has requested an update by 10AM.




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- The seismographs are still jumping. There are rumors from the local geologists of a small pyroclastic flow sighting last hour. Part of your team has a flight now scheduled for 9AM to survey the area and confirm the situation. Evidence of a pyroclastic flow could mean that an eruptive sequence has begun.




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- Not much change in activity. The Mayor is still expecting an update BY 10AM.




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- 7 more sizable tremors were felt. No harmonic tremor has been associated with the activity of the last 10 hours. However, the quakes have remained somewhat consolidated directly beneath the volcano. One outlying quake was pinpointed to have occurred 0.8km NE of the summit at a depth of 3 km.




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- 7 more sizable tremors were felt. No harmonic tremor has been associated with the activity of the last 10 hours. However, the quakes have remained somewhat consolidated directly beneath the volcano. One outlying quake was pinpointed to have occurred .8km NE of the summit at a depth of 3 km.

- No real change in the activity. All 6 quakes were centered beneath the volcano and between magnitude 2.5 and 3. This was in addition to the usual background of minor quakes.




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- 7 more sizable tremors were felt. No harmonic tremor has been associated with the activity of the last 10 hours. However, the quakes have remained somewhat consolidated directly beneath the volcano. One outlying quake was pinpointed to have occurred .8km NE of the summit at a depth of 3 km.


- The stations around the perimeter of the volcano are picking up an increase in background seismicity. All of the major activity is still focused directly below the summit.




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- Not much change in activity. The Mayor is still expecting an update BY 10AM. - - 7 more sizable tremors were felt. No harmonic tremor has been associated with the activity of the last 10 hours. However, the quakes have remained somewhat consolidated directly beneath the volcano. One outlying quake was pinpointed to have occurred .8km NE of the summit at a depth of 3 km.- - No real change in the activity. All 6 quakes were centered beneath the volcano and between magnitude 2.5 and 3. This was in addition to the usual background of minor quakes.

- The stations around the perimeter of the volcano are picking up an increase in background seismicity. All of the major activity is still focused directly below the summit.- - A flight to survey the volcano has just left. Activity continues as it has for the last 12 hours or so without any lapse. The mayor’s update is due in…now.




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- 7 more sizable tremors were felt. No harmonic tremor has been associated with the activity of the last 10 hours. However, the quakes have remained somewhat consolidated directly beneath the volcano. One outlying quake was pinpointed to have occurred .8km NE of the summit at a depth of 3 km.- - No real change in the activity. All 6 quakes were centered beneath the volcano and between magnitude 2.5 and 3. This was in addition to the usual background of minor quakes.

- The stations around the perimeter of the volcano are picking up an increase in background seismicity. All of the major activity is still focused directly below the summit.- - A flight to survey the volcano has just left. Activity continues as it has for the last 12 hours or so without any lapse. The mayor’s update is due in…now.- - Your team reports back from their overview. There was no evidence of a pyroclastic flow. A small debris flow seemed to happen in the general location of the report on the west side of the volcano due to an oversteepened slope failure. It was minor and was not near any populated area.




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- Seismic activity has fallen significantly this hour. Only one moderate quake was recorded at about 10:25. New gas emission data just came in as well, with a 15 +/- 5 tons of SO2 per day measurement.

November 1 12:15 PMCUVDAP RESPONSE TEAM



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- Only background tremors were recorded. No earthquakes larger that M1.5 were felt this hour. Some deformation measurements showed that the volcano’s rate of expansion has also dropped significantly.




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- The volcano has shown few signs of life. Activity remains way down.




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- A flight to survey the volcano has just left. Activity continues as it has for the last 12 hours or so without any lapse. The mayor’s update is due in…now.- - Your team reports back from their overview. There was no evidence of a pyroclastic flow. A small debris flow seemed to happen in the general location of the report on the west side of the volcano due to an oversteepened slope failure. It was minor and was not near any populated area.



- The volcano has once again showed few signs of life. Activity remains way down.

- One moderate (M2.5) quake was recorded. Its location was 2.1 km NW of the summit on the flanks of the volcano. Still no other significant activity.




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- Your team reports back from their overview. There was no evidence of a pyroclastic flow. A small debris flow seemed to happen in the general location of the report on the west side of the volcano due to an oversteepened slope failure. It was minor and was not near any populated area.



- The volcano has once again showed few signs of life. Seismic activity remains way down.


- Again, no significant (>2.5) seismic activity. THE MAYOR WOULD LIKE ANOTHER UPDATE BY 9PM TONIGHT.




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- Your team reports back from their overview. There was no evidence of a pyroclastic flow. A small debris flow seemed to happen in the general location of the report on the west side of the volcano due to an oversteepened slope failure. It was minor and was not near any populated area.









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- Two earthquakes greater than M2.5 were recorded. They were both located below the crater complex at depths of 3.2km and 2.1km, respectively.




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- No seismic activity other than the constant background of minor tremors. There is a protest outside of the control center. There is significant resentment of the USGS presence in Quito from the quasi-religious group led by Pablo Bernardo Gonzalez.




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- At 6:48 PM, one M2.6 earthquake was recorded directly beneath the crater at a depth of 2.6km.




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- No seismic activity. The mayor’s update is due…NOW.




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- Three seismic events >M2.5 occurred last hour. 2 of the events were located directly below the crater complex at depths of 1.8km and 3.2km. The other event was located approximately 2.5 SSE of the summit complex and at a depth of 4km.




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- The battery in seismic station PIC has been replaced, all seismographs are now functional. One seismic event was recorded at 10:01 PM. Its location was directly under the volcano at approximately 2.0km.




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- No significant seismic activity. The data from a new thermal scan of the summit showed the same general information as the last scan. The summit complex is still the most significant source of heat, with temperature rising only a degree or two over the measurement from October 11th. The anomalously heated surface creates a nearly perfect circle completely contained within the crater complex.




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- One earthquake of M2.6 was recorded at 11:58 PM directly beneath the crater complex at a depth of 1.7km.




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- Two seismic events occurred this hour with one measuring M2.5 and the other M2.8. The former was 1.5km NW of the summit, while the latter was directly beneath Guagua’s crater complex.




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- The signal coming from 5 of the seismic stations surrounding Guagua Pichincha just disappeared. The most likely cause of this is that the signal relay station is no longer working. A call has been placed to local authorities to see if anyone can check on the station. The one working station is QUI. QUI’s distance from the volcano will only allow for the detection of large (M4 or greater) and there is no hope of being able to pinpoint location or depth.




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- The signal coming from 5 of the seismic stations surrounding Guagua Pichincha just disappeared. The most likely cause of this is that the signal relay station HAR is no longer working. A call has been placed to local authorities to see if anyone can check on the station. The one working station is QUI. QUI’s distance from the volcano will only allow for the detection of large (M4 or greater) and there is no hope of being able to pinpoint location or depth.

- Local police were able to get to HAR and found that all of the equipment has been looted. A replacement crew has been dispatched immediately, but it will take at least a few hours to get a new relay link up and running. Until that time, little data will be available. THE MAYOR IS EXPECTING A 9AM REPORT.




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- No data available.




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- The signal relay was replaced at 7:21 and seismic activity immediately went through the roof. 11 separate events occurred. 10 were directly below the crater complex. The depths were (in order of occurrence): 4.1km, 2.9km,1.4km, 2.5km, 1.8km, 3.7km, 3.5km, 2.2km, 2.4km, and 1.6km. The other earthquake was located 4km due east of the summit at a depth of 6km. The mayor’s report is due…NOW.




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- Seismic activity remains high. Data problems prevent the determination of depths, but 12 significant earthquakes occurred, all beneath the crater complex. The police believe that Gonzalez’s radical religious protest movement was to blame for the looting of the relay station.




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- 9 earthquakes. Several depths were determined. Four earthquakes below the crater (1.4km, 3.2km, 3.6km, 1.9km) and one 2.4km ESE of the summit at a depth of 5.3km were located.




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- Continued strong seismic activity. 10 total earthquakes above M2.5, all directly beneath the crater complex (between 1.8-3.1km depth).




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- Tiltmeter readings have shown 2 feet of inflation over the past 48 hours. The inflation is relatively uniform and the volcano does not seem to be bulging out to any side. Seismic activity remains high.




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- A military flyover of the volcano this morning has returned some COSPEC data. SO2 emissions have risen to 150+/-25 tons per day. Direct sampling of the fumaroles within the crater complex has been deemed too risky.




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- Seismic activity remains very high. Data problems prevent the determination of depths, but 12 significant earthquakes occurred, all beneath the rater complex. The police believe that the radical religious protest movement was to blame for the looting of the relay station.





- The general nature of the seismic activity has not changed since this morning. The locations of the quakes beneath the volcano are starting to radiate out from the crater complex, but very slightly (no more than 1/4km).




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- A military flyover of the volcano this morning has returned some COSPEC data. SO2 emissions have risen to 150+/-25 tons per day. Direct sampling of the fumaroles within the crater complex has been deemed too risky. -H-The general nature of the seismic activity has not changed since this morning. The locations of the quakes beneath the volcano are starting to radiate out from the crater complex, but very slightly (no more than 1/4km).

- The city of Quito has become quite restless. Protests are growing and tension is high. Some of the larger earthquakes are being felt in the city and this has many people unnerved. Last hour saw 8 earthquakes larger than M2.5, with one M4.1.




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- Seven significant seismic events last hour. Five beneath the crater complex at depths of 2.2km, 2.5km, 3.7km, 1.3km, and 2.7km. 2 earthquakes outside the complex occurred. One 4km SW of the summit and one 2.4km due west of the summit. Both of these had depths of approximately 2.5km.




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- A military flyover of the volcano this morning has returned some COSPEC data. SO2 emissions have risen to 150+/-25 tons per day. Direct sampling of the fumeroles within the crater complex has been deemed too risky.




- There are reports coming in of an explosion from the summit. The weather has made visibility poor, but a spotter in a plane over the volcano reports that a steam/ash explosion from the summit sent ash to almost 7km above the crater floor. The crater is obscured by clouds, but team members are leaving now to view the area before the sun goes down.




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- Here is an account of the explosion from a journalist who was illegally on the volcano when the event occurred: “I was right on the west flank and the mountain started to rumble, then there was an explosion, I couldn’t see anything because of the clouds, so I just started running. Some ash started to fall, but I just got the hell out of there.”




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- The seismographs have been recording continuous harmonic tremor since the eruption. ANOTHER REPORT FOR THE MAYOR/PRESS RELEASE IS DUE BY 11PM.




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- The team has reported back from their look at the volcano and verified that it was in fact an eruption. There was no evidence of pyroclastic flows, but this explosion generated the most significant ashfall that has been seen so far. A wind from the east has blown most of the ash over the west side of the volcano.




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- The harmonic tremor started to wane at 8:30 and completely stopped 15 minutes later. The number of large seismic events has also dropped off significantly.




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- A bulletin just received from the local weather bureau: “Quito, EQ 0301GMT: A strong tropical front is moving towards the coast of Ecuador. It is unknown whether it will keep its present course, but if it does, it will bring heavy rain and high winds. There is currently a severe weather advisory for the Galapagos Islands, but this is expected to be extended to the coast of Ecuador within 24 hours. This front could make landfall within 48-72 hours…” The report for the mayor is due…NOW.




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- Seismic activity since the tremor subsided has been low. Only one significant earthquake occurred last hour and it was 3km NW of the summit. There have been reports of fumaroles on the western flank of the volcano, approximately 4-5km west of the summit. These are not verified, but someone is en route to take a look.




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- An overnight thermal imaging flight report just came in. The summit is intensifying as a heat source following the last eruption. The heat still seems to be centered in the volcano rather than favoring one side.




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- The reports of fumaroles on the western flank were not verified. It was ash from the last eruption being blown by the wind. Two M2.5 seismic events occurred, at 1.4km and 2.2 km below the summit crater.




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- The tiltmeters are showing a slowing of the inflation of Guagua since the last eruption occurred. Seismic activity is once again way down, almost to background levels.




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- Not much of a report available. Pictures just received from after the last eruption have shown that the crater complex has transformed its shape into a single oblong crater.




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- Another seismic station (ART) has stopped responding, most likely due to battery failure or looters. A decision has been made to leave any attempt to fix/replace the station for an undetermined time in the future. One weak earthquake (M2.5) occurred 2.6km below the crater complex.




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- Very little activity. Background seismicity was prevalent and the tiltmeters remained static.




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- The mayor would like his morning update by 10AM.




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- Gas emission data are in from an overnight flight over the volcano. High winds and poor visibility made a high degree of accuracy difficult. There is the possibility of an increase in emissions. The reading showed 250 tons/day of SO2 with a margin of error of +/-150 tons/day. One M2.7 quake was registered 2.0km below the crater complex.




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- Two earthquakes of significance last hour. One 1.5km under the crater complex and one 3.4km NNE of the summit at a depth of 4.1km.




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- No seismic activity to speak of last hour. The morning report is due NOW.




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- An update from the weather service: “Quito, EQ 1502GMT: The tropical front over the Galapagos Islands has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arturo. Sustained winds of 45mph and heavy rainfall are being reported. The system is becoming more organized and is expected to increase in strength over the open water. Because tropical systems are rare this at this time of year, predicting a course or its potential strength cannot be done at this time…”




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- Background seismicity dominated the last hour. The tiltmeters have shown that the volcano is beginning to inflate again slowly (0.5 feet in the past hour).




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- The tiltmeters are showing more inflation (about 1 foot/hour). One earthquake (M2.7) was measured 1.4km under the crater complex.




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- Continued inflation was seen once again last hour. The protests have begun once again. Seismic activity remains primarily at background levels.




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- Two earthquakes (M2.8 and M3.3) occurred under the crater complex within 5 minutes of each other starting at 1:38PM. Their depths were 1.6km and 1.4km, respectively. Inflation continued at the rate of 1 foot/hour.




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- The tiltmeters have stopped recording inflation and the volcano actually seemed to deflate slightly last hour. The seismicity was at its most active since last night. All three quakes were directly beneath the summit complex, at depths of 1.5km, 2.0km, and 1.8km.




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- Activity, both inflation and seismic, plummeted last hour. No major quakes or inflation were recorded. A set of gas emission data just came in and showed SO2 emissions of 275+/-75 tons/day. A thermal image was also taken on the flight and the data for that should be processed in a few hours.




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- Activity is way up. A radar installation at a nearby military base called to report anomalous thunderclouds. Seismic station BIS, the closest to the summit, has stopped responding. There is a plume of ash still rising through 15km and clearly visible from Quito.




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- The eruption, which began at 4:51PM finally concluded at 5:26. The plume reached a maximum altitude of 19km. Prevailing winds are from the east and most of the ash seems to be depositing on the west side of the volcano. A team is en route to examine the results of the eruption.




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- Reports from the team are that heavy ash has been deposited on the west side of the volcano. It appears that a cable of BIS melted and the risk was too high to attempt to fix it. There is also evidence of a small pyroclastic flow that was contained within the Rio Cristal valley on the west side of the volcano. The flow went approximately 4 km down the valley.




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- In a flight over the crater, a dome is observed. It appears to be approximately 150 feet high and now sits approximately 250 feet below the top of the crater. The change in morphology of the crater to a more uniform structure is also confirmed. Intense steam clouds from the crater limit the extent to which the new dome can be examined.




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- An update from the weather bureau: “Quito, EQ 0215GMT: Tropical Storm Arturo has stalled offshore of Ecuador. The coastline is experiencing heavy tidal surge and rain. The interior of Ecuador could experience showers or winds, but for now will not be affected by the storm.”




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- Seismic activity has remained fairly high since the eruption this afternoon. Inflation data have become difficult to interpret. Not surprisingly, SO2 emission has jumped dramatically to 1,900 +/- 150 tons per day with the eruption.




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- The situation remains largely the same. Damage reports from the ash and flow of the last eruption are trickling in. Quito is understandably restless.




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- In a flight over the crater, a dome is noted. The appears to be approximately 150 feet in height and now sits approximately 250 feet below the top of the crater. There is coalescence of the crater into a much more uniform structure. Intense steam clouds from the crater limit the extent to which the new dome can be examined.




- At 11:55 PM, Guagua began erupting again. The explosion was more violent than the first and it appears as though the plume will reach a higher altitude.




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- The eruption column topped out at 24km. It reached this height and flattened out, looking very much like an atomic bomb mushroom cloud. The spreading cloud easily covered Quito and all of the surrounding area. Ashfall is mostly concentrated within 5 km of the volcano, but Quito received its first dusting of ash. The eruption has been associated with considerable long period tremors that continued beyond the end of the eruption.




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- There are no reports of pyroclastic flows associated with this last eruption. Ashfall seems to be the major effect. Areas NW of the volcano have been the hardest hit thus far.




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- Seismicity has dropped slightly, but long period events are still occurring and the tiltmeters are once again showing inflation.




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- The seismic stations are jumping with activity. 15 large earthquakes (several long period events) are accompanying some rapid inflation. The intense tremors are making it difficult to discern individual events.




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- All of the seismographs are showing continuous intense tremors. The volcano is not visible, but radar showed that at 5:02AM another eruption plume climbed to 25km in under 20 seconds before flattening out. Reports have yet to come in from the field, but are expected as the sun begins to rise.




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- Reports show that this was the largest eruption in this sequence to date. A massive pyroclastic flow has apparently rolled down the Rio Cristal and Rio Blanco valleys. Everything up to the Rio El Cinto has been blanketed with flow deposits.




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- The seismic stations are jumping with activity. 15 large earthquakes (several long period events) are accompanying some rapid inflation. The intense tremors are making it difficult to discern individual events..



- A look at the crater shows that the dome that plugged the last eruption is significantly larger than it was after the previous event. It now is 230 feet high and is centered in the SE portion of the crater. It is difficult to judge any deformation of the volcano other than through tilt measurements because getting a close look at the volcano is both difficult and dangerous.




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- Long period quakes began once again late last hour. Intense fumarole activity once again has prevented a good look at the crater.




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- All of the meters are starting to jump again. Long period tremors have intensified since last hour. There is definite inflation although the tiltmeters are becoming difficult to work with because of the constant activity.




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- The data coming in indicate that something is happening. There is not much of a view of the summit, but reports should come in from spotters soon.




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- Another event just occurred. Spotters say a rather wide plume rose about 15km above the summit. Ash continues to fall in the areas surrounding the volcano. The west flanks are getting most of the ash, especially from this eruption. The larger events have spread tephra over a large area, including areas east of the volcano. Quito still has received only a dusting of ash.




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- The volcano has just erupted again. It is difficult to estimate the altitude of the plume due to the previous eruption. There have been no reports of pyroclastic flows associated with either of these eruptions.




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- The long period tremor has subsided, along with general seismic activity. Intense fumaroles still are obscuring the summit, though ash and tephra fallout from the last eruption make any attempt to view the crater or dome pointless.




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- The data coming in indicate that another event just began. There is not much of a view of the summit, but reports should come in from spotters soon.

- Another event did just occur. Spotters say a rather wide plume rose about 15km above the summit. Ash continues to fall in the areas surrounding the volcano. The west flanks are getting most of the ash, especially from this eruption. The larger events have spread tephra over a larger area, including areas east of the volcano. Quito still has received only a dusting of ash.



- The instruments are relatively quiet. The weather is starting to look sinister as the storm offshore starts to move inland.




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- Another event did just occur. Spotters say a rather wide plume rose about 15km above the summit. Ash continues to fall in the areas surrounding the volcano. The west flanks are getting most of the ash, especially from this eruption. The larger events have spread tephra over a larger area, including areas east of the volcano. Quito still has received only a dusting of ash.




- The tiltmeters and seismographs are all showing an increase in activity. Levels are not particularly high, but there is some long period tremor associated with the activity.




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- Guagua let out a small burst at 3:18PM. The low-level eruption plume climbed to about 5km above the summit. No flows have been reported. Minor ashfall on the west side of the volcano is the only real impact.




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- Tremor continues after the last minor eruption.




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- All of the instruments spiked at about 5:30. Outside a plume was visible rising to 21km. Seismic station PIC stopped responding during the eruption.




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- Reports from the west flank shown that a large pyroclastic flow moved down the Rio Blanco valley the previous flow deposits and spilled out over the Rio El Cinto valley, where seismic station PIC was located. The flow traveled approximately 11km from the crater.




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- The weather system is now starting to rain down on the Quito area. Seismic activity is somewhat quiet, yet some long wave tremor is still present.




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- Tremor began at 8:45PM and was followed shortly by a small plume of undetermined height. A pyroclastic flow was seen in the Rio Cristal valley, but was not large enough to add to the damage of the previous flow in that location.




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- Tremor continues after the last minor eruption. -A-All of the instruments spiked at about 5:30. Outside a plume was visible rising to 21km. Seismic station PIC stopped responding during the eruption. ---Reports from the west flank shown that a large pyroclastic flow moved down the Rio Blanco valley the previous flow deposits and spilled out over the Rio El Cinto valley, where seismic station PIC was located. The flow traveled approximately 11km from the crater.



- Seismic activity actually continued to rise throughout the last eruption and is still doing so now. Tremor is now virtually constant.




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- Another eruption just occurred. The tephra plume seems to be at an altitude of 10km. Tephra fallout has been concentrated, for the most part, within a 6-8km radius of the volcano. Ash has accumulated farther away, but winds have concentrated this to the west and northwest of the volcano. Tremors and general seismic activity have yet to subside following the eruption.




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- The storm is now upon the Quito region, bringing with it considerable amounts of rain. Reports have already started to come in of mobilization of loose tephra deposits into lahars.




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- The seismographs are now all incapable of distinguishing between events. Intense tremor is all that is being recorded. Energy release seems to be climbing despite the continuation of eruptions.




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- The seismographs are now all incapable of distinguishing between events. Intense tremor is all that is being recorded. Energy release seems to be climbing despite the continuation of eruptions.

- Continuing tremor. A failed attempt was made to view the summit crater. Weather and fumarole activity force the plane to turn around.




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- The seismographs are now all incapable of distinguishing between events. Intense tremor is all that is being recorded. Energy release seems to be climbing despite the continuation of eruptions. This could be the big eruption sequence that everyone have been waiting for.


- Guagua erupted again at about 2:45AM. Radar showed that a plume rose to around 12km above the crater. There is no visibility, so ascertaining the effects of this eruption are impossible until visibility improves or reports come in.




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- There are incoming reports of lahars that have come close to reaching the northern half of Quito. Major lahars have been mobilized in the river valleys west of the volcano. There is little hope of the storm lessening over the next 12-24 hours.




3


NA


6


1





- The tremor has not subsided at all. Energy release continues to increase as well.




3


NA


7


1





- Guagua let loose again at 5:30AM. Radar shows the plume topped out at 9000 meters. The sun started to rise at 5:55, but was soon extinguished by the ash cover. There is still a total blackout on the ground, with the ash cloud stretching to the horizon in all directions.




3


NA


7


1





- The blackout has lessened, but the tremor has continued. The remnants of tropical storm Arturo are still blasting Quito with high winds and rain. Airborne ash and rain are mixing into a windblown mud-rain.




3


NA


7


1





- The instruments have been maxed out for 7 hours or so now. Continuous tremor is the only feature. The volcano is still obscured, but radar has not picked up any unusual activity, so the volcano is likely inactive at the moment.




3


NA


6


1





- Continued activity…no new eruptions.




3


NA


7


1





- A new plume was noted climbing to approximately 8km. This was the 7th eruption of the past 24 hours. There is no way to see the crater.




3


NA


7


1





- A large lahar is being reported along the Rio Mindo valley to the NW of Guagua. The lahar appears to have stopped 3-4 km short of the village of Mindo.




3


NA


7


1





- Reports of damage associated with the recent activity are coming in. The pyroclastic flows have wiped the river valleys directly to the SW of the summit clean. The Rio Mindo lahar did significant damage to small settlements next to the river, but stopped short of the village. The heavy, wet ash, coupled with storm winds, have been a problem for many poorly constructed dwellings in the countryside and the outskirts of Quito.




3


NA


7


1





- The tiltmeters have been almost useless, but they seem to show that the volcano is almost breathing. The volcano is inflating and deflating almost hourly.




3


NA


7


1




- There was another eruption at about 1:17PM. The eruption plume only reached 8km, but there is now another complete blackout. Winds have remained from the east, despite the storm, and are spreading the majority of the new ash over the area west of the volcano.




3


NA


7


1





- Continued tremor…no new eruption.




3


NA


6


1





- A lahar from the Rio Rumihurcu has reached Quito. The extent of the damage is unknown. Conditions do not allow for the accurate assessment of the situation. While details are sketchy, the lahar did enter the northern portion of the city through the river valley. This is a highly populated area.




3


NA


6


1





- More reports from the lahar have come in. It appears as though the lahar has covered 0.75km2 area of the city of Quito in an average of 2 feet of mud and debris. Damage is significant.




3


NA


6


1





- The only seismic station that is not awash with activity is QUI. Even this station is saturated with high frequency tremor, and it appears to be strengthening.




3


NA


7


1





- There was yet another eruption last hour. It was typical of the eruptions of the past 24 hours. Plume height could not be determined. Pumice fall was restricted to within 4km of the summit, but the ash cloud spread and caused the 3rd blackout of the day.




3


NA


7


0

- A lahar from the Rio Rumihurcu has reached Quito. The extent of the damage is unknown. Conditions do not allow for the accurate assessment of the situation. While details are sketchy, the lahar did enter the northern portion of the city through the river valley. This is a highly populated area and damage from even a small lahar in the area is expected to be extensive.




- The wind has died down from the storm system. The worst of the storm is over, but the radar is showing that it is likely rain could be relatively heavy for up to 48 hours.




3


NA


6


0





- Continued tremor…no eruption.




3


NA


6


0






- Again, the intense tremor has continued. The tiltmeters are very active, but it is hard to say what the activity is. There is no real pattern to the movement.




3


NA


7


0






- Yet another eruption. This one occurred at 11:02PM and its tephra plume rose to around 8km. Fallout was uniformly distributed, for the most part within 5km of the crater.




3


NA


7


0






- There were several new lahars reported. The three lahars were all along the Rio El Cinto west of Guagua. These were not near any populated area and the extent of the lahars is not known.




3


NA


6


0






- Damage reports coming are mostly from outlying areas on the flanks of the volcano. Structural collapse because of heavy, wet ash seems to be the real threat. Quito itself has received very little ash because of fortunate wind direction so the only damage to Quito has been from lahars.




3


NA


6


0






- Seismic station QUI is now a blur. Discernable seismic data is now virtually impossible to gather.




1


NA


7


0





- “Quito, Quito, this is it!” At 2:58 am, radar picked up a rising plume bigger than any we have seen. It is at 28km and rising right now. Both seismic station GUA and seismic station HAR stopped responding at 3:03 am. It is not clear what has happened on the ground.




1


NA


7


0




- The plume cleared 35km and is now spreading out. There is a complete blackout. Tephra is being pumped out of the volcano and is falling in Quito. There is still no way to get information on what has happened. Radar is showing that the bulk of the plume has been blown to the west of the volcano.




1


NA


7


0



- The plume cleared 35km and is now spreading out. There is a complete blackout. Tephra is still being pumped out of the volcano and is falling in Quito. There is no way to get information on what has happened. Radar is showing that the bulk of the plume has been blown to the west of the volcano.

- There is still a blackout. Quito has accumulated 5cm of tephra fallout so far, but it is still falling. The rain has let up temporarily. More information should be available when the sun rises in the next hour.




1


NA


8


0





- Guagua erupted another pulse. This time a plume rose to only 25km. Seismicity seems to be waning. The new eruption has delayed efforts to view the eruption’s impact.




1


NA


7


0




- The blackout is starting to lift and reports are coming in. Massive pyroclastic flows were channeled to the west and NW of the crater. These flows traveled down valleys for approximately 12km and fanned out. The northern extent of the flows was the Rio Mindo valley. Everything within this area has been destroyed.




1


NA


7


0




- Quito itself has now been buried under 15cm of ash and pumice. Building collapse and structural failure are now major concerns. The immediate area to the west of the crater for 5km has >30 of ash atop the flow deposits. To the west ash is >20cm in thickness for 15km. 10cm of ash deposit is being reported up to 50km away from the summit.




1


NA


7


0




- Quito was quite lucky. As the sky is clearing, the crater rim is visible and it has a large new breach in its eastern side. Apparently a debris flow was channeled south by Rucu Pichincha. This flow has destroyed Lloa and taken out seismic station HAR. The ridge between Lloa and Quito prevented the flow from affecting the southern end of Quito.




1


NA


6


0




- The volcano seems to have settled down. The one working seismic station is not picking up much activity other than some small rumblings.




1


NA


6


0




- Ash continues to fill the sky as reports of the devastation still come in. The weigh of the ash has collapsed roofs all around Quito. While the city itself was protected from flow damage, the surrounding villages (including Lloa) were not nearly as lucky. The countryside is a blanket of ash and scorched earth from the pyroclastic flows.




1


NA


6


0




- Another lahar raced down what is left of the Rio Mindo valley, stopping just short of Mindo. The storm system is weakening and the heaviest rains have moved off to the east. No significant seismic events.




1


NA


6


0

- Quito was quite lucky. As the sky is clearing, the crater rim is visible and it has a large new breach in its eastern side. An apparent debris flow was caused and channeled south by Rucu Pichincha. This flow has destroyed Lloa and took out seismic station HAR. The ridge between Lloa and Quito prevented the flow from affecting the southern end of Quito.




- The city is still being rocked by the low rumble of earthquakes. There have not been any major events, just a steady stream of small quakes big enough to worry those people in structures that could collapse.




1


NA


6


0





- Some reports from the field on the western side of the mountain. The Rio Cristal and Rio Blano valleys are no longer valleys. They are nearly filled with pyroclastic flow deposits, some up to 400 feet thick.




1


NA


5


0





- A brief clearing of the clouds has allowed for a view of the summit. Guagua has blown off its top and left a 4km circular caldera. Guagua Pichincha went from 4794m in elevation to approximately 4300m overnight.




1


NA


5


0





- Prepare a status report for the mayor ASAP.




1


NA


4


0

- Another lahar raced what is left of the Rio Mindo valley, stopping just short of Mindo. The storm system is weakening and the heaviest rains have moved off to the east. It appears obvious that the eruption sequence is winding down.




- Prepare a status report for the mayor ASAP.

- YOU ARE OUT OF FUNDING AND NEED TO LEAVE QUITO. BEFORE YOU LEAVE MAKE SURE YOU SAY GOODBYE TO ALL YOU NEWFOUND FRIENDS AND PREPARE A PREDICTION OF FUTURE ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR EVERYONE YOU ARE LEAVING BEHIND.

october 30 8:15 pm cuvdap response team guagua pichincha activity - new bulge data received. crater...

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