ofcm-sponsored working group for tropical cyclone research 1 wg/tcr comparison of the 2008 and 2010...

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

1 WG/TCR

Comparison of the

2008 and 2010

Snapshots of

Tropical Cyclone

R&DDr. Frank Marks (NOAA) and Dr. Ron Ferek

(Navy)Co-Chairs, Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

(WG/TCR)


2 WG/TCR

History of WG/TCR• February 2005: Federal Coordinator

formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR)

• February 2007: JAG/TCR work culminated with publication of Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

• Two Tables in the Plan:

Table 4-1: Operational Priorities of the TC Forecasting & Warning Centers

Table 5-1: Research Needs in Atmospheric and Ocean Science

• October 2008: First meeting of the WG/TCR


3 WG/TCR

WG/TCR Objectives / Tasks

• Keep Tables 4-1 and 5-1 updated Table 4-1: Ops priorities (became Table 1)

Table 5-1: Research needs (became Table 2)

• Map agency meteorological research efforts against TC research needs and operational priorities

• Analyze / compare results

• Update information at IHC

Research Needs

Table 2

Operational Priorities

• Table 1 Ops priorities

extracted from FY09 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO)

FromTable

2

Operational Priorities

• Table 1 Ops priorities

extracted from FY09 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO)

Ops priorities from FY11 JHT AFFO


7 WG/TCR

A1

A1

b

A1

d

A1

f

A1

h

A2

a

A2

c

A3

A3

b

A3

d

A4

a

A4

c

A5

a

A6

B2

B3

a

B3

c

B3

e

B5

B7

C1

C1

b

C2

05

101520253035404550

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1405

101520253035404550

Intensity Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure

Guidance Decision Tools

Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs Ensem

bles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs

Ma

n-y

ea

rs

Intensity / Structure

Track Genesis QPF

Surge

[Seasonal]

Model Development

Obs

Combined Agency Data Graphedto Detailed Research Categories

Combined Agency Data Graphedto Ops Priorities

Research Compilation Process• Tabulated each agency’s research contribution; man-years and $

~ 240 projects (NOAA, NASA, Navy, NSF, USACE, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement)

• Mapped man-years for each R&D activity to the Detailed Research Categories using Table 2 (see 1st graph)

• Mapped man-years to ops priorities using column in Table 1 (see 2nd graph)


8 WG/TCR

Comparison of 2008 Snapshotwith

2010 Snapshot


9 WG/TCR

Man-years by Research Category

2008 Snapshot(Total Man-years: 211)



10 WG/TCR

Man-years by Agency




11 WG/TCR

2008 SnapshotTotal: $50,155K

2010 SnapshotTotal: $76,658K

Field Experiments: PREDICT, GRIP, IFEX, ITOP & Research Computer System (HFIP)

NOAA Total$23,936

HFIP


12 WG/TCR

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 C1 C2 C30

10

20

30

40

50

60


10

20

30

40

50

60

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D

2008-2010 Comparison

Inte

ns

ity

/ S

tru

ctu

re

Tra

ck

Gen

es

is

QP

F

Su

rge

Sea

so

nal

Model Development Observations

2008 SnapshotTotal: 211 Man-years

Inte

ns

ity

/ S

tru

ctu

re

Tra

ck

Gen

es

is

QP

F

Su

rge

Sea

so

nal

ObservationsModel Development

HFIP

2010 SnapshotTotal: 296 Man-years

(HFIP Contribution: 75 man-years)

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities

• On next two slides:

2008 and 2010 comparisons of the research needs mapped onto ops priorities

Used ops priorities published in the FY09 JHT AFFO


14 WG/TCR

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60


2008 Snapshot(FY09 AFFO)

NHC / CPHC

Total: 211 Man-years



Intensity Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure


Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs Ensem

bles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs

Intensity Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure


Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs Ensem

bles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs


15 WG/TCR

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60


JTWC

Intensity Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure

Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs Ensem

bles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs






Intensity Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure

Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs Ensem

bles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs



16 WG/TCR


Closing Comments

• Two snapshots that captured R&D activities

Represents the spectrum of R&D across the community

Research influenced by ops priorities; provides mechanism for essential feedback

• With HFIP and four major field experiments, R&D increased markedly in 2010 snapshot compared to 2008 snapshot

Deltas between 2008 and 2010 not only reflect HFIP, but changing emphasis of field experiments

• Intensity change is still #1 operational priority

Research (basic and applied) is still required, as this is a very difficult and complex problem


17 WG/TCR

• Users would like research community to take more of an interest in guidance decision tools

• We have a process to: Keep the operational priorities updated Assess and evaluate how research is contributing to those

priorities Allow research managers to make informed decisions for future

investments Facilitate interagency collaboration and coordination

• Starting to see interesting results from R&D and will see examples throughout the conference

• Raises awareness of the importance of R2O • Will complete next snapshot in 2012 using new operational

priorities (FY11 JHT AFFO)



18 WG/TCR

QUESTIONS?

BACKUPS


20 WG/TCR

Dr. Frank MarksOAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Ronald FerekONR (Navy/DOD)

Dr. Bradley SmullPhysical & Dynamic Met. (NSF)

Dr. Scott BraunGSFC (NASA)

Dr. James McFaddenOMAO/AOC (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Robert RogersOAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Mark DeMariaNESDIS (NOAA/DOC)

Lt Col Jonathan Talbot53rd WRS (AF/DOD)

Mr. James FranklinNWS/NHC (NOAA/DOC)

Mr. William (Kim) CurryHQ Navy (Navy/DOD)

Mr. Bob FalveyDirector, JTWC (AF/DOD)

Ms. Robbie HoodOAR (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Bruce EbersoleU.S. Army COE (Army/DOD)

Dr. Daniel MelendezNWS/OST (NOAA/DOC)

Mr. Jeffrey HawkinsNRL (Navy/DOD)

Dr. Alexis Lugo-FernandezBOEMRE (DOI)

Dr. James GoerssNRL (Navy/DOD)

Lt Col Chris CantrellHQ AF (AF/DOD)

Dr. Gerald HeymsfieldGSFC (NASA)

Ms. Justyna NicinskaOAR (NOAA/DOC)

Mr. Mark WelshingerOFCM

WG/TCR

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150

10

20

30

40

50

60

Man

-yea

rsResearch Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities

2010 Snapshot (FY11 AFFO)NHC / CPHC


Intensity

Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure

Guidance

Decision Tools

Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model ensem

bles

comparable to m

ulti-

model consensus

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs

Extended Climatology-

Persistence Skill

Baseline

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150

10

20

30

40

50

60

Man

-yea

rsResearch Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities

2010 Snapshot (FY11 AFFO)JTWC


Intensity

Change

Storm Surge

Genesis

Size/Structure

Guidance

Decision Tools

Fcstr Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model ensem

bles

comparable to m

ulti-

model consensus

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

Improved Obs

Extended Climatology-

Persistence Skill

Baseline


23 WG/TCR

NSF FY08 AND FY09

NOAA FY09

NAVY FY08

NASA FY08 AND FY09

OTHER FY09

2008 SNAPSHOT – FYs INCLUDED (SEE NEXT SLIDE)

2010 SNAPSHOT - # OF PROJECTS (BACKGROUND FOR SLIDE #5)

NSF 39

NOAA 116

NAVY 50

NASA 31

OTHER 3


24 WG/TCR


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Change from 2008 to 2010 in combined man-years by research category

2008-10 change

Man

-yea

rs

Inte

nsi

ty /

S

tru

ctu

re

Tra

ck

Gen

esis

QP

F

Su

rge

Sea

son

al

Model Development

Observations

HFIP

ofcm-sponsored working group for tropical cyclone research 1 wg/tcr comparison of the 2008 and 2010...

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