Ofsted: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?

Robert Coe, Durham UniversityAssociation of Colleges Annual Conference, 19 November 2013

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Ofsted: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution? Both The case for evidence and rigour Accountability dos and don’ts Problems with judgement and classroom

observation What could be improved?

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Evidence and rigour in the search for real improvement

www.cem.org/attachments/publications/ImprovingEducation2013.pdf

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(Updated from Coe, 2007)

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School ‘improvement’ often isn’t School would have improved anyway

– Those willing to improve will (misattributed to intervention)– Chance variation (esp if start low)

Poor outcome measures– Perceptions of those who worked hard at it– No assessment of pupil learning

Poor evaluation designs– Weak evaluations more likely to show positive results – Improved intake mistaken for impact of intervention

Selective reporting– Dredging for anything positive (within a study)– Only success is publicised

(Coe, 2009, 2013)

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Impact vs cost

Cost per pupil

Effec

t Size

(mon

ths g

ain)

£00

8

£1000

Meta-cognitive

Peer tutoringEarly Years1-1 tuitionHomework

(Secondary)

Mentoring

Summer schools After

school

AspirationsPerformance pay

Teaching assistants

Smaller classes

Ability grouping

Most promising for raising attainment

May be worth it

Small effects /

high cost

Feedback

Phonics

Homework (Primary)

CollaborativeSmall gp

tuition Parental involvement

Individualised learning

ICT

Behaviour

Social

www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit

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Monitoring the quality of teaching

Classroom observation– Much harder than you think!– Multiple observations/ers, trained and QA’d

Progress in assessments– Quality of assessment matters

Student ratings– Extremely valuable, if done properly

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Accountability

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Accountability culturesTrustConfidenceChallengeSupportiveImprovement-focusProblem-solvingLong-termGenuine qualityEvaluation

DistrustFearThreatCompetitiveTarget-focusImage presentationQuick fixTick-list qualitySanctions

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Choose measures that are genuinely aligned with what is valued (& hard to distort)

State general aims, but be vague/flexible about specific targets/measures

Actively look for (and publicise) gaming and unintended consequences; encourage whistle-blowing on counter-productive gaming

Build in loophole-closing mechanisms (eg to re-align credit with difficulty/value)

Combine statistical measures with face-to-face observation & judgement

Measure a wide range of outcomes Look at distributions, not just thresholds

Ways to avoid gaming

(Bevan & Hood, 2006; Bird et al., 2005; Smith 1995; Fitz-Gibbon 1997)

Problems with judgement and classroom observation

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Do We Know a Successful Teacher When We See One? Filmed lessons (or short clips) of effective (value-

added) and ineffective teachers shown to– School Principals and Vice-Principals– Teachers– Public

Some agreement among raters, but unable to identify effective teaching

No difference between education experts and others Training in CLASS did help a bit

12Strong et al 2011

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Obvious – but not trueWhy do we believe we can spot good teaching?

We absolutely know what we like– Strong emotional response to particular behaviours/styles is

hard to over-rule We focus on observable proxies for learning

– Learning is invisible Preferences for particular pedagogies are widely shared,

but evidence/understanding of their effectiveness is limited

We think learning depends on what the teacher does We assume that if you can do it you can spot it We don’t believe observation can miss so much

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Poor Proxies for Learning Students are busy: lots of work is done

(especially written work) Students are engaged, interested, motivated Students are getting attention: feedback,

explanations Classroom is ordered, calm, under control Curriculum has been ‘covered’ (ie presented to

students in some form) (At least some) students have supplied correct

answers (whether or not they really understood them or could reproduce them independently)

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Hamre et al (2009)

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16Simons & Chabris (1999)

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“We generally recommend that observers have some classroom experience. However, we sometimes find that individuals with the most classroom experience have the greatest difficulty becoming certified CLASS observers. Experienced teachers or administrators often have strong opinions about effective teaching practice. The CLASS requires putting those opinions aside, at least while using the CLASS, to attend to and score specific, observable teacher-child interactions.” (Hamre et al 2009, p35)

“Becoming a certified CLASS observer requires attending a two-day Observation Training provided by a certified CLASS trainer and passing a reliability test. The reliability test consists of watching and coding five 15-minute classroom video segments online … Trainings with a CLASS certified trainer result in 60-80% of trainees passing the first reliability test … CLASS Observation recertification requirements include annually taking and passing a reliability test.” (Hamre et al 2009, p37-8)

In the EPPE 3-11 study, observers had 12 days of training and achieved an inter-rater reliability of 0.7. (Sammons et al 2006, p56)

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ReliabilityProbability that 2nd rater

disagrees

1st rater gives % Best caser = 0.7

Worst caser = 0.24

Outstanding 12% 51% 78%Good 55% 31% 43%Req. Impr. 29% 46% 64%Inadequate 4% 62% 90%

Overall 39% 45%

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Percentages based on simulations

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ValidityProbability value-added

data disagrees

1st rater gives %Best case

r = 0.4Worst case

r = -0.3

Outstanding 12% 71% 96%Good 55% 40% 45%Req. improv. 29% 59% 79%Inadequate 4% 83% >99%

Overall 51% 63%

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Percentages based on simulations

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Part of the solution

Accountability is here to stay It should definitely include site visits and

classroom observation Recent policy changes and statements from

Ofsted are positive

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Requires Improvement

Ofsted must demonstrate that all inspectors are able to interpret complex data

Ofsted should use a validated protocol for lesson observation, with appropriate training

Ofsted should demonstrate the validity of all aspects of inspectors’ judgements

There should be ongoing, transparent, independently verified processes for QA

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