oil drift modelling be-aware ii final conference, 18-19 november, ronneby, sweden co-financed by the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Oil drift modelling
BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden
Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument
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• Concept of modelling the development of an oil slick
Oil drift modelling
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Objective:How will a given spill will spread, drift, disperse:
1. For oil on surface and oil in the water column2. For all spill location in the BA area3. For all spill sizes4. For all oil types5. For all season6. Include effects of oil spill recovery and chemical
dispersion
=> several "infinities" of model-runs for each scenario
Oil drift modelling
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Method:Limit the calculations to a reasonable amount and still obtain a satisfying answer by conducting "Strategic oil spill modelling":•including only necessary processes•modelling with a sufficient accuracy•sensitivity analyses, comparing with other modelsDifficulty is to judge:•which processes and scenarios are necessary for the purpose•when is the accuracy sufficient for the purpose
Oil drift modelling
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Process regimes:•Oil on the ocean surface•Chemically dispersed oil•A 2x2 km grid •4 seasons, no sea iceParameters:•Sea temperature•Frequency of wind velocity and direction•Wave height (wind waves)•Frequency of fog and mist•The daily hours with sunlight
Drift, spreading and fate
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• Oil types included
Drift, spreading and fate
Type Representative substance
19 Crude oil
20 Fuel oil
21 Gasoil, diesel, petroleum, jet fuel and light fuel oil
22 Gasoline
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• Spill size classes
Drift, spreading and fate
Spill size class Lower limit [t] Upper limit [t]Representative
size [t]
0 0 0 0.0
1 0 1 0.3
2 1 15 4.0
3 15 300 67.0
4 300 5,000 1,200.0
5 5,000 15,000 8,700.0
6 15,000 50,000 27,000.0
7 50,000 150,000 87,000.0
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Spreading, resulting radiusSlick area = Circle with radius RR'= Rgrav + Rtide+windFor the resulting area affected by a slick a radius R' is determined:
1.spreading by gravitation (radial spreading)
2.spreading by tide (ellipsoidal circulation)3.and wind (superposition of wind drift)
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Spreading, dispersionChemical dispersion occurs after approx. 18 hrs (alarm, mobilisation, flight time , effect time):•Phase1: Before application of dispersants (t < 18 hrs)Surface oil: R: Oil slick radius develops due to gravity Drift: as surface drift (Wind+current)•Phase 2: After application of dispersants (t > 18 hrs) Dispersed oil: R:= R0+0.01x (based on observation of oceanic plumes)Radius increases 1/100 with downstream distance (tide effect included, not wind)Oil concentration based on plume depth := 30mDrift as for residual current (no wind effect)
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A A
B
C
D E
F
G
• Meteorological areasBased on wind statistics
3 speed classes12 direction classes, 30°
Drift
Location F, Jan - Feb
Wind speed class 1
Wind speed class 2
Wind speed class 3
Speed interval (m/s) 0.2 - 5 5 - 11 >11
Representative wind speed (m/s)
3.5 7 14
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DRIFTSchematic illustration of resulting drift velocity (yellow) as a superposition of •wind drift (light blue) and •residual current drift (dark blue).
Wind and current drift
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Modelling the wind drift:
•Vdrift = 0,023 · W, W: Wind speed (m/s)•Ddrift = D, D: Wind direction (deg)
Drift
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A A
B
C
D E
F
G
• Hydrographicalsub-regions
• Drift by wind and• Residual currents
(Mumm model input)
Drift
Meteorological area
Description Residual drift speed (m/s)
Direction of drift (ºN)
A West of Ireland 0,05 45
B NW of Scotland 0,07 45
C West of Norway 0,1 45
D East of UK 0,02 150
E West of Denmark 0,07 45
F Southern North Sea
0,01W, projected 30, 210
G English Channel 0,01W, projected 60, 240
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Weathering and natural dispersion
Volume of oil and water in oil emulsion on the sea surface (ITOPF, 2006). Group 1: dieselGroup 2 & 3: light and heave crude oil Group 4: bunker oil
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Simulation stop when 5% of the oil is left on the sea surface.
The rest of the oil is either•Weathered•Floated on shore•Drifted out of the model area over boundaries to the Atlantic•Removed by response action
Moddeling stop criteria
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• Verification on single specific spill
Verification MUMM Oserit single spill
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• Effect of several selected spills• SW-wind NW-wind
Verification MUMM Oserit single spill
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OSERIT: Specific time seriesBEAWARE: General statistics
Verification MUMM Oserit multiple spill
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Objective:Distribution of spilt oil after spreading, drift and weatheringAll places (several hundreds)spill sizes (7)all oil types (4)all winds (3 speeds and 12 directions)all seasons (4)
Summarising
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Questions?
Thank you
beaware.bonnagreement.org