oil sands round table calgary september 26 th, 2006 will roach president & chief executive...
TRANSCRIPT
Oil Sands
Round TableCalgary
September 26th , 2006
Will Roach President & Chief Executive Officer
UTS Energy Corporation
Agenda
Oil Sands Introduction
Oil Sands Scale
Oil Sands Production Technologies
Oil Sands Challenges
Oil Sands Introduction
• 1875 Canada Geological Survey registers oil sands• 1915 shipments to Edmonton for paving• 1938 Abasand commercial production - 2,500 barrels
destroyed by fire in 1941 - not rebuilt• 1950’s separation technology centrifugal force
• Strong interest results in dozens of exploration leases sold by the government
• 1964 Esso starts Cold Lake; GCOS construction• 1967 first GCOS (Suncor) production - 32,000 b/d• 1978 first Syncrude production - 109,000 b/d• 1993 truck and shovel technology adopted
• key to revitalizing the development outlook
• 2004 oil sands production reaches
1 million barrels per day
Canadian Oil Sands History
Alberta’s Oil Sands
What are Oil Sands?
• A mixture of sand and other rock material containing deposits of bitumen (a heavy viscous crude oil; API gravity typically <10).
• At room temperature, near solid state and must be converted to upgraded crude (typically API gravity of between 30 to 40).
Where are the Oil Sands Deposits?
• Athabasca in NE Alberta;
• Cold Lake in E-Central Alberta; and
• Peace River in NW Alberta.
Alberta’s Oil Sands Deposits
Bitumen In-Place Volumes and Reserves
35 Mineable
143 In Situ
Initial Volume In-Place1,629 Billion Barrels
Established Reserves178 Billion Barrels
Mineable In Situ
1,516 In Situ
113 Mineable
McMurray Formation Outcrop
Lateral Accretion Beds
Oil Sands Scale
Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country
Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2005
213639
60
8092
102115
133
179
264
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
SaudiArabia
Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria UnitedStates
billion b
arre
ls
Includes 1
75 billion barre
ls
of oil s
ands rese
rves
Canada, with 175 billion barrels in oil sands reserves, ranks 2nd only to Saudi Arabia in global oil reserves
Top 10 World Crude Oil Producers in 2005
0 2 4 6 8 10
Venezuela
UAE
Canada 2005
Norway
Mexico
China
Iran
USA
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Million Barrels per Day
Source: EIA & CAPP
Oil sands growth will move Canada from #8 to #4 in the world by 2015
Canadian Oil ProductionConventional, Oil Sands and Offshore
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
thousa
nd b
arr
els
per
day
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Western Canadian Conventional Oil
Oil Sands
Offshore
Source: CAPP
Actual ForecastOil Sands Production: 2005 = 1.0 million b/d2015 = 3.5 million b/d2020 = 4.0 million b/d
ConstrainedCase
Oil Sands Production Technologies
Oil Sands Production Technologies
Mining & Upgrading
In-situ
Recoverable resource = 65 billion barrels
Recoverable resource = 250 billion barrels
Cyclic SteamProcess
Source: SyncrudeSource: Imperial Oil
Source: Shell Canada
Oil ProductionSteam Assisted Gravity Drainage
Steam Injection
ReservoirOil Production
SteamChamber
Steam Injection
Source: Petro-Canada
Oil Sands “Economics”(drivers really)
Attractive Economic Fundamentals
Factors making oil sands investments appealing:
Mining projects are characterized by: massive resources (measured in Billions of bbls rather than Millions of bbls); essentially “no” exploration risk; non-declining production profiles; and extremely long reserve life (typically 40 to 50 years).
In-Situ projects are characterized by: massive resources (measured in Billions of bbls rather than Millions of bbls); low exploration risk (increased production risk relative to mining); and extremely long reserve life (typically 40 to 50 years).
Both Mining and In-Situ have an attractive royalty regime.
Crude Oil Prices 1975 – 2006US $ per barrel (WTI)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
$US
per
bar
rel
U.S. Oil Production/Demand
U.S. oil production
reached a peak of
just under 10 million
b/d in 1970.
U.S. demand for oil
is increasing in the
country at
approximately 1-2%
per year.
Full Cycle Costs: Oil Sands versus Conventional
* FHP Development Cost assumes: CAPEX $15B / Resource of 3.5B bbls.
Source FirstEnergy Capital Corp: **Average 2005 Western Canadian Opex per bbl; ***Average 2005 Western Canadian FD&A per barrel (Proved plus Risked Probable); including Future Capital Costs, **** Average 2005 Western Canadian Reserve Life Index
Finding
Development
Mining
Extraction
Upgrading
Energy:
Natural Gas
Sustaining Capex
Site Restoration
$0.10
$4.25*
$4.00
$4.00
$4.00
$8.00
$1.00
$0.50
Total Notional
C$25.85/bbl
$18.70***
$8.30**
$1.00
$??
FD&A
Sustaining Capex
Abandonment
Oil Sands (Fort Hills) Conventional
Total
C$28.00+/boe
OPEX
OPEX
F&D
RLI 50 years RLI 10.5years****
Capital Investment in Alberta
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
E
2006
F
Oil Sands
Conventional Oil & Gas
$ b
illio
ns
Close toClose to $60 Billion i$60 Billion investment in oil sands projected for 2006-2010
Oil Sands Capital Costs IncreasesGlobal Cost Increases Not Just Local
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Suncor -Millenium
Albian Syncrude- Aurora 2
& UE 1
Nexen-OPTI
CNRL -Horizon
Shell -Muskeg &Scotford
Cap
ital
$ p
er b
bl/
day
ProductionStart Date 2001 2003 2006 2007 2008 2010
Fort Hills Project and Technology Selection
Fort Hills Project will use naphthenic froth treating and delayed coking upgrading technology
MineOre
Prep. UpgraderExtraction & Tailings
Froth Treatment
Pipeline
Bitumen Production
Naphthenic
Paraffinic Hydro-Cracker
Delayed Coker
Common
Dedicated
Upgrader Technology: Costs
101 kbpd SCOHydro-Cracker (paraffinic)
( + H )
86 kbpd SCO
Bitumen
100 kbpd
Hydro-cracker SCO
volume is 17%
HIGHER
or
Hydro-cracker uses 45-55% MORE natural
gas, thus Opex is HIGHER
Coker(naphthenic)
( - C )
Operating Costs
SCO Yields from Upgrader
Hydro-cracker on-stream time ~
5% LOWER than Coker
Capital Intensity per flowing barrel
of SCO for Hydro-cracker
is 20-30% HIGHER
Capital Costs
Upgrader Technology: Capital Intensity
The following comparison is based on a notional 100 kbpd bitumen to the upgrader:
Mine Bit. Prod. UpgraderFHP:
Coker 100 kbpd 100 kbpd 86 kbpd
Mine Bit. Prod. UpgraderHydro-Cracker 105 kbpd 100 kbpd 101 kbpd
Difference in Capital Intensity for Hydro-cracker +20 to 30%
per flowing barrel of SCO
Total
Total
Incremental Capital Intensity for Hydro-Cracker vs. Coker per flowing barrel of SCO
0% +20 to 30% +25 to 35% +20 to 30%
Oil Sands Challenges
Oil Sands Challenges
Challenges:
Use of land
Use of water
Use of natural gas
Infrastructure requirements
Workforce availability
Access to markets
Costs
Research and development is aimed at:
Sustainable resource development in an environmentally responsible manner
Reducing costs
Oil Sands Production TechnologiesAlternatives to Natural Gas
THAITM (Toe-to-Heel Air Injection)Petrobank Whitesands Project
OrCrude Process - Nexen/OPTI Longlake
Multiphase Superfine Atomized Residue - DeerCreekSuncor 3rd Upgrader - Coke Gasification
OXYGEN WASTE WATER PETROLEUM COKE
SYNTHETIC GAS
(CO, H2, CO2)
GASIFIER
CO2 CAPTURE &SEQUESTER
HYDROGEN
HYDROTREATORSBOILERS
STEAM & ELECTRICITY
FUEL
Industrial Construction Projects>100 MM Cdn (2004 Q1 – 2010 Q4)
Calgary
Edmonton
ALBERTAMining Area
Oil Sands Areas
Fort McMurray
VCIVCI
VCIVCI
VCIVCI
VCIVCI
Mineable Area, AEUB
Currently Operating/Under Construction Mining Projects
Planned Mining Projects
Currently Operating/Under Construction In-situ Projects
Planned In-situ Projects
Other Oil Sands Leases
Leases 5, 8 & 52: 30% WI (46,170 acres)
Lease 437/438: 30% WI (12,968 acres) Lease 311: 50% WI (11,520 acres)
Lease 14: 100% WI (7,067 acres)
Lease 634: 100% WI (1,280 acres)
Athabasca region