olav maassen. making better decisions with option theory
TRANSCRIPT
March 23, 2017
Making better decisions
with option theoryThe ‘When’ rather than the ‘How’
Olav Maassen
@OlavMaassen
Who is Olav Maassen?• Account Manager at VersionOne
• Active with Agile since 2003
• Honorary Fellow at the Lean Systems
Society
• Co-author of award-winning graphic
business novel “Commitment”, awarded
“Most Valuable Agile Innovation 2013”
Contact
m +31 6 26083506
Instant Messaging, Skype, Twitter
@olavmaassen
3
When is something
a commitment?
Options
have
value
© luismi1985
Options
expire
© givepeasachance
Never
commit
early
unless
you
know
why© Tub Gurnard
Landmark Cone of Uncertainty
0.1
1
10
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
Acu
tal
To
tal
Du
rati
on
/ E
sti
mate
d T
ota
l D
ura
tio
n
Percent of Actual Duration
Estimation Error over Time
The Cone of Uncertainty
We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations,
anticipation, and adaptation.
8
It’s
not
about
probability
It’s
about
survival
Staff Liquidity
11
Source: https://www.box.com/shared/mg9kq3d17e
Value of information
10 September 2013 12
Options
have
value
© luismi1985
Options
expire
© givepeasachance
Never
commit
early
unless
you
know
why© Tub Gurnard
Focus on when to
make a commitment!
Understand the difference between
commitment and decision
Do you need a
rope to climb
back up?
16
Finding the artist
19
Rough Outline
First manuscript
25
26
Different covers
27
28
School choice
31
© luismi1985
Options expire
© givepeasachance
Never commit
early unless
you know why© Tub Gurnard
Options have value
33
Key take aways
• See options around you
• Use options to postpone commitments
• Know when to commit and why
34
Questions are an option
35
Contact information• Account Manager at VersionOne
• Active with Agile since 2003
• Honorary Fellow at the Lean Systems
Society
• Co-author of award-winning graphic
business novel “Commitment”, awarded
“Most Valuable Agile Innovation 2013”
Contact
m +31 6 26083506
Instant Messaging, Skype, Twitter
@olavmaassen