one billion high emitters: a new approach for sharing global co2 emission reductions
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One Billion High Emitters: A New Approach for Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions. Shoibal Chakravarty (PEI), Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard), Heleen de Coninck (ECN), Steve Pacala (PEI), Robert Socolow (PEI), Massimo Tavoni (FEEM) Contact: [email protected]. Background. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
One Billion High Emitters:A New Approach for Sharing
Global CO2 Emission Reductions
Shoibal Chakravarty (PEI), Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard), Heleen de Coninck (ECN), Steve Pacala (PEI), Robert Socolow (PEI), Massimo Tavoni (FEEM)
Contact: [email protected]
Background
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change– “Common but differentiated responsibilities”
– Two-tier world: Annex I (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I (rest of the world)
– Kyoto Protocol builds on this
• Ignores emission inequality within nations
• Guiding principle: agreement between sovereign states
• Based on a negotiated outcome? (Kyoto)
• Based on cumulative historical contribution to climate change?
• Or perhaps on future contribution to the climate problem?
• Based on the reduction potentials (geography, climate)?
• Based on national per capita greenhouse gas emissions? (Contraction and convergence)
• Based on the emissions of the individuals in a country?
What is a fair distribution of emission allowances among countries?
It does:– Treat two individuals with the same emissions equally,
regardless of their nationality
– Provide a simple but flexible ordering principle on which to base emission allocation to countries: both developed and developing
It does not:– Prescribe specific policy options
– Does not include land use emissions and non-CO2
gases
What this paper does (and does not do)
Source: IEA WEO 2007
Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2005)
Source: IEA WEO 2007
Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2030)
• Focus on the CO2 emissions of individual
• Treat every individual the same, no matter in which country they live
• Calculate the individual emissions cap: an appropriate emission allowance of any individual in the world
• Find the nation’s cap: Add up the individual allowances for each citizen in a country
National responsibilities based on individual emissions
8
Individuals ranked by annual emissions
9
Individual Emissions Cap
Determine the globally applicable individual emissions cap
10
Individual Emissions Cap
Some people exceed the individual emissions cap
11
National Emissions
Target
Required ReductionsIndividual Emissions Cap
+ + + + +
+
=
=
Add the capped emissions of the citizens to determine the national target
Use income distribution data to arrive at individual carbon distributions
Apply CountryCO2 intensity
Rank all people in the world, highest to lowest emission-wise
50%
75%
Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030
Total emissions: 43 GtCO2
Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030
Target 30 GtCO2
Reduction: 13 GtCO2
= 10.8 tCO2/person/yr
2030
2003: 26 GtCO2
2030: 43 GtCO2
13 Gt
30 Gt
Other global targets?
Regional emissions in 2030
30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap
For a 30 GtCO2 global cap in 2030, similar population on which targets are based for four groupings
30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap
U.S.
China
Rest of OECD
Rest of world
Regional targets change with different global targets in 2030
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
USA OECDEurope
China India Middle East Russia Africa
1990 (21.2 Gt) 2003 (25.5 Gt) 2030 BAU (43Gt) 35 Gt 30 Gt 25 Gt 20 Gt
• Most allocation schemes introduce fairness through a per capita emission convergence component
• This allocation scheme introduces fairness through treating every individual the same
• However, is it fair if the very poor remain very poor?
• Allow the 2.7 billion people at < 1 tCO2/yr to grow
• What does 1 tCO2/person/yr mean
– 800 kWh coal-fired power; 65km of driving; 14 kg LPG/month
– X 2 for indirect emissions
Headroom for the poor?
Combine global-emissions cap and individual-emissions floor
“30P” in 2030: 30 GtCO2 global emissions cap plus 1 tCO2 floor on individual emissions
Individual cap:without floor: 10.8 t CO2
with floor: 9.6 t CO2
1
Regional targets, with the 1tCO2 floor, for different global targets
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
USA OECDEurope
China India Middle East Russia Africa
1990 (21.2 Gt) 2003 (25.5 Gt) 2030 BAU (43Gt) 35 Gt 30 Gt 25 Gt 20 Gt
• It is possible to arrive at national caps based on income-based individual emissions
• Only an allocation mechanism: flexibility on policy instrument
• Global cap of 30 GtCO2 in 2030 results in about 1 billion people having to reduce emissions
• The need of the poorest 2.7 billion people to emit more can be accommodated (but also uncertainty whether the poor will be spared)
Conclusion
What’s missing and how do we incorporate it ?
• CO2 from land use and non-CO2 gases
• Historical emissions: lifetime emissions, link to demographic statistics
• Strong levels of convergence
• Account for factors other than carbon intensity, e.g. geographical circumstances, climate, population density