one un training bangkok 27 october 2009

“One UN” Training

Green Jobs for Green Growth in Asia and the Pacific

Bangkok, 27 to 30 October 2009

Carina Bachofen and Edward Cameron

[email protected] / [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




๏ Social justice as an over-arching theme

๏ Governance and social accountability in climate action

๏ Equity, rights and livelihood security in climate change mitigation and adaptation

๏ Learning Module and Micro-documentary film contest

๏ Rights, forests and climate change

๏ Local institutions, area-based development and climate change

๏ Emerging work on Indigenous Peoples, gender, conflict and the urban poor

The Social Dimensions of Climate (SDCC) at the World Bank

Our Goal:

Socially inclusive, climate-resilient policies & operations in client countries

the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific

1. Climate change impacts growth in Asia and the Pacific

2. Climate change policy could have long term implications for growth in Asia and the Pacific

3. Responding to the threats and opportunities of climate change alters the context for our work and our institutions

Our starting point


๏ The changing nature of climate change

๏ A climate of crises

๏ “We do not intend to waste these crises”


Our starting point

Our Goals:


1. Enhance understanding of vulnerability and resilience

2. Build the capacity of participants to work with climate change

3. Propose principles of equity and governance that can improve the practice of climate change interventions

4. Outline a number of methods and tools that can be used as operational entry points

1. What are the social dimensions of climate change?

2. First principles: understanding vulnerability and resilience

3. Pro-poor climate policy: from vulnerability to resilience through sustainable development

4. Methodologies and toolkits: operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change

Four Part Training


Part 1What are the social dimensions of climate change? Why is this perspective important for Asia and the Pacific?


Reconciling socio-ecological systems

The complex social responses resulting from climate change

The implications of climate change architecture, policy and interventions

Building new communities of practice

Breaking down disciplinary path dependency

Altering process, policies, and interventions

Shaping substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations


What are the social dimensions of climate change?

IPCC projected natural impacts

complex social responses

equity

human rights and other implications

Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges

Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure; decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts

Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination; property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children

Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations

Improved outcomes, adaptive capacity and resilience

Enhanced capital and resources

Improved governance

Change analysis and diagnosis

Critical in shaping global policy architecture and responses; instruments and application at the local level; addresses inequalities; reduces vulnerabilities; builds resilience

Technological; knowledge; political; various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)

Key to authoritative advocacy for vulnerable populations; providing access to processes; influencing the nature of processes; vital for building constituencies and securing agreement

Implementation of governance principles across governance scales leads to enhanced capital and resources

first principles: understanding vulnerability and resilience Part 2


Vulnerability according to the IPCC:Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is exposed, it's sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007a, p21)


Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjected, such as:

๏ Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)

๏ Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)

๏ Reduced agricultural productivity

๏ Increased water insecurity

๏ Increased health risk

๏ Large-scale singularities

๏ Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)



Text

Exposure in ASIA

“The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia, where 60% of the world’s population lives - over half near the coast - making them directly vulnerable to sea level rise” (New Economics Foundation 2007).

๏ A 1m rise in sea level would inundate coastal cities and communities throughout Asia. In 2007 almost 20 million people were displaced as devastating floods hit northern India, Bangladesh and Nepal, affecting food, clean drinking water and medical supplies.

๏ Freshwater availability, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease. This, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s (IPCC 2007, p13).

๏ Recent studies suggest that South Asia could experience losses of up to 10 percent of many of its local staples including rice by 2030. Fears over the supply and cost of rice led to food riots and export bans in a number of South Asian countries in 2007 and 2008.

Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Low income High incomeMiddle income

Source: World Bank 2008

Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk


๏ Access to information, decision making and justice

๏ Dependence on the environment for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and medicine

๏ Geographical context

๏ Financial / socio-economic status

๏ Governance / political economy issues

๏ Gender, age, abilities

๏ Indigenous Peoples

๏ Cultural norms

Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts, such as:


Adaptive Capacity - The capacity to mobilize resources to build resilience

๏ Various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)

๏ Technological

๏ Knowledge

๏ Governance

Adaptation - “Refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or activities to climatic change and variability” (IPCC 2001).


Case Study 1: The Maldives


Case Study 2: Mongolia


Case Study 3: Bangladesh


Country Case Studies:Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read one case study from The Maldives, Mongolia and Bangladesh.

When you have finished reading the case studies, present the case to your colleagues, explaining why your chosen country is vulnerable.


ResilienceResilience occurs where adaptive capacity is strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure minimized. It reflects the ability to deal with change and continue to develop.

Just as vulnerable communities are threatened with collapse from climate impacts, a resilient community can anticipate and plan for a sustainable future.


pro-poor climate policy: from vulnerability to resilience through sustainable development Part 3


Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:

EQUITY

RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY

CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS

INEQUITY


Climate policy building blocks

๏ Mitigation

๏ Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

๏ Adaptation

๏ Technology

๏ Finance


Mitigation

๏Sources

๏Sinks / Reservoirs

๏Sequestration

๏Substitutes


Renewable Energy: Co-benefits

๏GHG Reductions

๏Economic returns for those who innovate

๏Employment and local development

๏ Increased security of supply

๏Reduced emissions of other pollutants and health benefits


Biofuels: Negative Social Impacts

๏Questionable GHG reductions potential

๏Deforestation

๏Land acquisition and displacement

๏ Impact on food (production, access, prices)

๏Political instability, corruption and violence


ISSUES / ETHICSReducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation

REDD Agenda

๏ Deforestation is responsible for at least 25%-30% of anthropogenic climate change each year

๏ Forests help to slow climate change by acting as a sink / reservoir for GHG emissions

๏ Assign a price for carbon to cover environmental services and create incentives for forest conservation and management

๏ Effective forest governance is key to success but remains elusive


Adaptation

๏Planned versus autonomous adaptation

๏First Generation

๏Second Generation

๏Third Generation (?)


What Adaptation Strategy?Case 1: Engineering - protecting the land or the person?

๏ Protects vital infrastructure

๏ Protects vital utilities

๏ Coastal zone management

๏ Seawalls, flood defences, etc..

๏ Deals with exposure but what about sensitivity?

๏ May not target the most vulnerable

๏ May not address key system impacts (ecological and social)


Technology

๏Research and innovation

๏ Investment and political will

๏Development and deployment

๏Access and supporting structures


Finance

๏How much is required?

๏New and additional?

๏How to generate funding?

๏How to disburse / target funding?


Equitable, efficient and effective?

Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1% by developed countries)Carbon TaxesGeneral taxes and specific fundsAviation / Shipping taxGHG LevyTax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)Emissions Cap and TradeAuctioning of Emissions RightsCDM and Carbon Offset Markets

Potential Sources of Climate Finance:

Current estimates put the cost of dealing with climate change at between $4bn and $109bn per year(low end from Stern 2006 / high end from UNDP 2007)

Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009


EquityVulnerable and marginalized communities are typically least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.

“These groups, by lacking a voice and influence in climate change policy making, are unlikely to account for their particular experience. This is likely to exacerbate their position of marginalization or vulnerability further” (Pollack, 2008, p17).


% GHG Emissions in 2000

Source: Data taken from the Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) developed by the World Resources Institute (WRI). Aggregates from IEA and others.

Only 17 countries account for 1% or more of global greenhouse gas emissions

Together, these 17 countries are responsible for more than 85% of global emissions

And yet few of these are amongst those most vulnerable to climate change

Unequal responsibilities


Climate related disasters

Some 262 million people were affected by climate disasters annually from

2000 to 2004.

Developing WorldOECD

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2007 / 2008

In the OECD, one person in every fifteen hundred was affected by

climate disaster (1:1500)

In the developing world the number was one in nineteen (1:19)

A risk differential of 79!

Unequal consequences

% of people affected by climate disasters 2000 - 2004


EquityThe practical application of equity may help to resolve a number of long-standing climate change issues including:

๏ Power and participation

๏ Determining entitlements and access:

๏ Allocating and meeting responsibilities

๏ Mobilizing and building capacities

๏ Prioritizing needs

๏ Striking a balance across space and time


Global: UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap

Regional: EU and other initiatives

Local / Sub-national:Initiatives at provincial, community and household level

National:Policies at the state level


Rationalize energy, water and agricultural price, tax incentives, fiscal and expenditure policies

Efficiency standards; codes, zoning, climate screening / proofing of investments

Capacity of public, private and financial sector institutions to assess and act on climate risks and new business opportunities

Improve investment climate; deepen financial and capital markets; new markets (cap & trade, CDM, etc...)

Education, raising awareness and promoting change in consumer behavior and preferences, public diplomacy

Incentives

Regulations

Institutions

Markets

Public Outreach

Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009


Thematic Case Studies:Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read one case study on Equity and Governance.

How do the principles of equity and governance influence your work? What can we do as a UN family to mainstream these principles in climate change interventions?


Methods and tools: operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change.Part 4


Analytical Frameworks

A range of analytical frameworks can enhance our understanding of vulnerability. Most emphasize the role of assets as a buffer against vulnerability and the mediating role of institutions.

They include:

๏ Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)๏ Social Risk Management Framework (SRM)๏ Territorial Development (TD) and Local Institutions

What methodologies enhance our understanding of vulnerability and shape our responses to it?


46

Social Financial

Hum

anNatural

ASSETS Inclusive Governance

Scales

Livelihood protection

and poverty

reduction

•Exposure to Risk

•Sensitivity to Risk

•Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Processes

Stakeholders

Institutions

Frameworks 101 ๏ Vulnerability context influences availability of assets๏ Access to assets determines level of resilience and adaptive

capacity๏ Institutions determine access to and returns from assets

Physicalthe social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific

Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)

๏ Vulnerability Context

๏ Livelihood Assets

๏ Transforming Structures and Processes

๏ Livelihood Strategies

๏ Livelihood Outcomes


Social Risk Management Framework (SRM)

๏ Aims to increase capacity of society to manage climate risks and increase opportunities for sustainable development

๏ Framework applied to identify no-regrets options

๏ Policy menu should balance ex-ante risk prevention, exposure reduction and support for ex-post coping

๏ Interventions can take place at different stages, levels of governance and levels of formality


Territorial Development

๏ Territorial vision: socio-political area with shared identity

๏ Focus on micro- and meso-linkages across sectors and spatial dimensions of different assets and endowments

๏ Considers endogenous territorial assets to identify a territory’s comparative advantages and relevant development strategy

๏ Holistic - integrates sectoral policies at territorial scale, promotes economic and institutional transformation, and strengthened linkages within a territory


Rethinking existing instruments - developing new tools

With climate change altering the context for development, the need for new and innovative methodologies and tools is becoming increasingly apparent.

The World Bank is adapting existing instruments, developing new toolkits, and monitoring emerging approaches for operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change.

These include:

๏ Participatory Scenario Development (PSD)๏ Preventative Resettlement Toolkit๏ Human Rights Based Approach๏ Gender-Based Toolkit

Which toolkits enhance our understanding of vulnerability and shape our responses to it?


Thematic Case Studies:Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read one the case study on Methodologies.

Which of these methodologies would be most useful in your work? Are there alternatives?


The Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeConcluding thoughts and further resources

Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development. Policy responses across scales of governance further alter the context for development. Are we ready for those changes?


MOVING FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE (1)

๏ Change the diagnosis

๏ Mobilize new constituencies and communities of practice

๏ Enhance understanding of vulnerability

๏ Recognize the importance of building equity into policy


MOVING FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE (2)

๏ Increase resilience and co-benefits with sustainable development through climate interventions

๏ Improve governance and better policy will follow

๏ A variety of new and existing tools can aid this process

๏ Learn the lessons from case studies drawn from different experiences across the globe


equitythe social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific

Further information and learning resourcesEND

equity

Strategic Framework For Development and Climate Change and Development

๏ Support to climate actions in country-led development processes;

๏ Mobilization of concessional and innovative finance; ๏ The development of innovative market mechanisms to

leverage private sector resources; ๏ Acceleration of the development and deployment of new

technologies; ๏ Enhanced policy research, knowledge, and capacity

building.

Climate Change at the World Bank


equity

Climate Change at the World Bank (2/3)

The new Climate Investments Funds (CIF), with donor pledges of more than US$ 6 billion includes:

๏ A Clean Technology Fund to facilitate demonstration, deployment, and transfer of low-carbon technologies

๏ A Strategic Climate Fund, which focuses on vulnerable nations, tries to maximize co-benefits of sustainable development, and features a pilot program for enhancing climate resilience.


Social Development at the World Bank

The Social Development Department aims to empower poor and marginalized women and men through a process of transforming institutions for greater inclusion, cohesion and accountability.

Thematic focus includes:

๏ Social Policy Analysis๏ Local Governance and Community Driven Development๏ Conflict, Crime and Violence๏ Indigenous Peoples and Involuntary Resettlement๏ The Social Dimensions of Climate Change


visit our website: www.worldbank.org/sdcc


http://www.worldbank.org/sdcc


Further Reading: SDCC Workshop Summary Report (World Bank, 2009)

“I am confident that the innovative global agenda that this workshop has launched will lead to a holistic analysis of climate change impacts on human and social systems, increase our understanding of vulnerability, and strengthen our capacity to build social justice, accountability and equity into climate policy”.

Katherine Sierra Vice President, Sustainable Development NetworkThe World Bank


World Bank Group Strategic Framework For Development and Climate Change (SFDCC), 2008

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report (HDR), 2007

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), 2005

The Economics of Climate Change (Stern Review), 2006


Adger, N (2006) VulnerabilityThe challenges for vulnerability research are to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience.

Burton, I et al (2002) From Impacts Assessment to Adaptation Priorities: the Shaping of Adaptation PolicyThe emphasis shifts from the question of gross and net impacts to questions of vulnerability, and how and where to deploy adaptation responses.

Brooks, N (2003) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual frameworkAdaptation by a system may be inhibited by process originating outside the system; it is therefore important to consider “external” obstacles to adaptation, and links across scales, when assessing adaptive capacity.

McGray, H et al (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for framing adaptation and developmentAny effective development planning process will need to take climate change into account—and, more particularly, will need to facilitate adaptation to the effects of climate change.

O’Brien, K et al (2004) What’s in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change researchDifferent interpretations of vulnerability have major implications for how the issue of climate change is addressed by policy makers, leads to different diagnoses of the climate change problem, and also to different kinds of cures.

Turner, B et al (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability scienceChanges taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where?


Thank you for your attention!

www.worldbank.org/sdcc



one un training bangkok 27 october 2009

Documents

climate change policy

rate of climate change

climate change mitigation

climate change impacts

climate of crises

climate change3

climate change emerging

green growth