opportunities and risks in brazilian oil & gas by rafael lourenço manager, oil & gas...
TRANSCRIPT
OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS IN BRAZILIAN OIL & GAS
By Rafael LourençoManager, Oil & Gas Working Group
May 16, 2012
•Operates under the administrative aegis of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
•Brazil Section of the council managed by the Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (Confederação Nacional da Indústria – CNI)
•Informal advisor to Strategic Energy Dialogue (MME-DOE)
•Support to U.S.-Brazil CEO Forum
•Oil & Gas Working Group based in Rio de Janeiro
•Private sector organization, founded in 1976 and focused on promoting the free flow of trade and investment between Brazil and the United States
•U.S. Section of the council represents major U.S. companies invested in Brazil
BRAZIL COUNCIL LEADERSHIP
Greg Page Chairman, U.S. Section
CEO, Cargill
Robson Andrade Chairman, Brazil Section
President, National Confederation of Industry
Apple
Opportunities - Exploration & Production
Pre-Salt – most attractive with option to operate concession
11th bidding round for shallow water and onshore concessions – expedite launch of next round
Risks - Exploration & Production
Legal risk – Chevron case
Labor risk – obtaining qualified workers in country; moving technical workers in and out of country
Importation risk – REPETRO interpretation; delays in importation of emergency parts
Local content risks – need for greater standardization of local content in auctions; investment in education should count
Opportunities – Natural Gas Complex
Explosive growth in domestic demand medium-long term
Easily exploited hydro running out
Gas currently burned at wellhead
US know-how and its own significant development in this market makes Brazil-U.S. cooperation attractive option
Nuclear on hold
Risks – Natural Gas Complex
Legal & Regulatory structure does not yet value reliability of thermal
Requirement that companies guarantee gas availability in auctions big source of risk
Regional auctions would allow for testing of models with greater thermal participation
Opportunities – Maritime Support
Large coming gap in supply of local maritime support vessels and services
Reason: local players over leveraged and over capacity
Significant opportunity for investment in local shipyard and offshore operations base
Opportunities – Repair
2-3 years from now Brazilian offshore fleet will begin to require repairs. No domestic shipyards available.
Current solution is to take to Caribbean or Argentina – significant opportunity for experienced foreign players with capital to invest in Brazil
Rafael LourençoManager, Oil & Gas Working GroupBrazil-U.S. Business CouncilTel: +21-3213-9215Cel: [email protected] - www.brazilcouncil.org
THANK YOU