Optimum Energy Future for Cape

Town

Energy Research Centre

Energy Growth into the Future

Energy consumption for ‘Business as Usual’ is expected to almost quadruple by 2050

Renewable electricity supply

What do we do? Energy interventions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Electricity efficiency

Transport efficiency

Optimum Energy

Future

Business as

usual

1

2

3

Optimum Energy Future interventions do not compromise energy service delivery.

Total End User Expenditure for Scenarios

Optimum Energy Future results in similar overall energy expenditure (incl. massive transport infrastructure investments) than Business as Usual without compromising energy service delivery.

2 Transport

Existing Coal

BUSINESS AS USUAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX (IRP2010) 3 Renewables: Electricity supply mix

New Coal

Wind

Dir

ty

Cle

an

Nuclear

Implementation options…. • Large scale Power Purchase Agreements

• Embedded options (PV, Wind…)

• Landfill gas

• Sewage methane

• Small hydro

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Ra

nd

s p

er

kW

h(d

isc

ou

nte

d)

Year

Solar PV (grid-tied) cost comparison

Solar PV cash

Solar PV financed

Normal elec

THANK YOU

National Climate Change Response White Paper

• The key areas of change:

• Renewable energy:

• Large scale – national (REBID)

• Small scale – cities

• Energy Efficiency

• Eskom ZAR5.4bn – accessible by large players

• Link with industrial & commercial customers - cities

• Residential = cities

• Transport

• Powers budgets being devolved to cities

• Densification & urban form

12

National GHG objectives

Peak

Decline

Plateau

Cities are a very energy intensive

part of the national profile Top 15 cities

~45% of total national consumption

~ 3% of land area (i.e. very energy

intensive)

National Integrated Resource Plan demand forecast

Big metros

Mining

Industry

Transport , 50%

Residential , 18%

Commercial, 17%

Industrial, 14%

Local Government , 1%

Energy Consumption per sector in Cape Town 2007

Transport , 27%

Residential , 29%

Commercial, 28%

Industrial, 15%

Local Government , 1%

Carbon Emissions per sector in Cape Town, 2007

Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Future

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with the ‘Business as Usual’ energy growth is untenable given the national and international pressures to reduce carbon emissions.

KEY ISSUE : PROCEEDING ALONG A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO HAS SIGNIFICANT RISKS

Energy Demand will

quadruple by 2050 if

current energy demand

growth continues

• Higher energy expenditure for the city’s occupants

• Vulnerability to power price hikes

• Inefficient economy

• Fewer jobs taken advantage of in the energy sector

• A vulnerability to a carbon constrained future

• Susceptible to oil price rises (‘End of cheap oil’)

• Loss of competitive advantage as a green city

Optimum Energy Future results in lower energy expenditure if transport infrastructure investments are excluded (a portion of which would come from national govt).

Total End User Expenditure for Scenarios (excl transport costs)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

Bill

ion

So

uth

Afr

ican

Ran

ds

Carbon Tax Implications for different Scenarios (carbon tax of R100 at 4% escalation)

Business As Usual

Business As Usual Carbon Tax

Optimum Energy Future

Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

Bill

ion

So

uth

Afr

ican

Ran

ds

Carbon Tax Implications for different Scenarios

Business As Usual

Business As Usual Carbon Tax

Optimum Energy Future

Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax

Increase in costs for Optimum Energy Future (R2.5bn)

Increase in costs for Business as Usual (R5bn)

1 EFFICIENCY: ALMOST ALL ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS

ARE FINANCIALLY SENSIBLE AND PAY THEMSELVES BACK, LEADING TO A MORE EFFICIENT ECONOMY

R 0

R 200,000,000

R 400,000,000

R 600,000,000

R 800,000,000

R 1,000,000,000

R 1,200,000,000

R 1,400,000,000

LI lighting LI fridge HI lighting HI fridge HI water COM HVAC COM water COM lighting

LG lighting LG HVAC LG street lights

LG traffic signals

Cumulative net saving from electricity efficiency interventions up to 2025

The bars represent cumulative net savings (i.e. considering capital costs and electricity savings) of electricity efficiency interventions.

Low-inc residential

Commercial

Govt

Mid-hi inc residential

Solar Thermal

Existing Coal

New Coal

Wind

OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX

Dir

ty

Cle

an

Solar Thermal

Existing Coal

New Coal

Wind

Landfill gas

OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX

Dir

ty

Cle

an

Generation mixes and costs for different scenarios in 2030

R/kWh BAU % mix OEF % mix

Munic waste 0.44 0% 3%

Solar thermal 1.5 1% 3%

Wind 1 6% 20%

New nuclear 0.69 17% 6%

New fossil base 0.42 43% 38%

New mid & peak (gas turbine) 3.4 5% 5%

Hydro 0.1 4% 4%

Existing mid & peak (gas turbine) 3.4 0% 0%

Existing base 0.2 22% 22%

Existing nuclear 0.69 2% 0%

Average generation costs (Rand/kWh) 0.60 0.67

KEY ISSUE: THE COST OF AN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX THAT INCLUDES A STRONG COMPONENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER

THAN BAU

Conclusion…

• Cities are critical to changing a country carbon profile

• We know what to do (EE, RE, regulations, transport, etc ….)

• Cities often more proactive than national government

• Capacity and resources often a constraint

WAY FORWARD…

• Direct focus and support for cities = NB

• Unification of cities to lead where countries are failing?

A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN JOBS CREATED

Job creation

(long-term)` Business as Usual

Optimum Energy

Future

Municipal Waste 0 123,231

Solar Thermal Elec 0 23,078

Wind 280,397 844,967

New Nuclear 320 1,667

New Fossil Base 0 0

New mid and peak 4,858 3,873

Existing Hydro 4,891 4,451

Existing mid and peak 454 429

Existing Base 0 0

Existing Nuclear 499 286

Total jobs from

generation 291,418 1,001,981

SWHs 799,828

Energy Efficiency 11,329

TOTAL ALL 291,418 1,813,138

SOLAR WATER HEATERS: A solar water heater mass rollout programme to reach 50% of the City’s houses (approx 0.5 million systems) would create 10,200 job-years over the next 10 years and be economically beneficial to the citizens and the economy.

• Solar – Concentration

– Photovoltaic

• Solar – Thermal

– Photovoltaic

– Cooking

• Wind

• Biomass

• Waste

– Burning

– Landfill gas

• Small-scale

hydro

• Ocean energy:

– Wave

– Tidal

– OTEC

– Ocean currents

Electricity demand forecast

Big metros

Mining

Industry

Some key assumptions…. • Household growth : 1.7% (~15 000 /yr)

• Informal household growth: 13% from 2007, 8% after 2010

• Electricity growth: 2.9% (corresponds to 3.4% GDP growth)

• Costing – Discount rate : 5% (real)

– Electricity tariff real increases linked to ‘new build’ program

– Liquid fuel costs linked to inflation (except in ‘Peak Oil’ Scenario)

• Transport : Private Vehicle Growth : 3.4%

• Transport : Public Transport Growth : 2.9%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

Bill

ion

So

uth

Afr

ican

Ran

ds

Business As Usual and Optimum Energy Future Scenario costs with and without carbon tax implications

Business As Usual

Business As Usual Carbon Tax

Optimum Energy Future

Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax

ELECTRICITY TARIFF DESIGN WILL NEED TO CHANGE IN FUTURE TO PROMOTE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AT THE SAME TIME TO

PRESERVE THE CITY’S REVENUE BASE

• Electricity tariffs currently promote more sales, not efficiency

• City revenue dependent on electricity sales

• Different tariff setting approaches can protect revenue and even generate funds for efficiency implementation.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

-

200

400

600

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

R m

illio

ns

Annual financial surplus/shortfall per service

Water

Electricity

Rates & general

Solid waste

Sanitation

2 TRANSPORT: Transport resource intensity

Urban sprawl…

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

50 100 200

Co

st (

R$

/pas

sen

ger)

City density (pers/ha)

Public transport costs and density (Brazil) City of 1 million

More dense Less dense

The need to Densify the City

Densification of the city is expected to result

in significant reductions in expenditure to

service the population with adequate public

transport. (and also other service

infrastructure – storm water, water,

electricity)

ZAR 10 billion

saved

ZAR 40 billion

saved

Densification: Recurrent costs

55,685

106,006 97,414

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2010 2020 - 'Urban sprawl' 2020 - 'Compact city'

Infrastructure

Transport

Housing

Source: PDG

Peak oil implications

‘Peak Oil’ can result in significantly increased overall energy system costs to the city, which would be devastating to the economy.

The Optimum Energy Future interventions

Sector Interventions

Residential Efficient lighting

Efficient water heating (solar water heaters or heat pumps)

Commercial Efficient Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC)

Efficient water heating

Efficient lighting

Industrial Efficient motors

Efficient HVAC

Efficient lighting

Local Government Buildings: efficient lighting

Buildings: efficient HVAC

Efficient street lighting

LED traffic lights

Fleet fuel efficiency

Freight Transport Freight from road to rail

Passenger Transport Hybrid and electric private vehicles

Public transport vehicle efficiency

Modal shift from private to public transport

Electricity Supply Mix Renewable energy in mix

R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

LI lightingLI fridgeMI lighting

MI fridge

MI water

HI lighting

HI fridge

HI water

VH lightingVH fridge

VH water

COM HVAC

COM water

COM lighting

IND motors

IND HVACIND lighting

LG lightingLG HVAC

LG street lights

LG traffic signals

All Sectors

2015

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

Commercial buildings

– lighting, HVAC

Residential water

heating

Residential lighting

Residential fridges

Industrial motors

City service delivery planning and budgeting will need to consider the fact that the informal, largely unelectrified household sector is currently growing fast, and will

place increasing demands on the City’s ability to provide services and will contribute little to revenue.

Low income electrified

Med income (elec)

Hi income (elec)

Household growth projectionsShowing the potential growth in the

informal sector if current trends continue

Low income unelectrified(informal)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Revenue Cost Revenue Cost Revenue Cost

Low income High income Non-residential

Rm

illio

n Cross subsidisation (Source: PDG)

Surplus

Deficit

Equitable share

User charges

Cost

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

-

200

400

600

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

R m

illio

ns

Annual financial surplus/shortfall per service

Water

Electricity

Rates & general

Sanitation

KEY ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE PLANNING EXERCISES

• Transport modal shift - how exactly to achieve

• Peak Oil - huge financial impacts on transport

• Densification of the city – how?

• The fast growing informal residential sector will place increasing demands on City’s ability to provide services

• Data: – Population (esp. informal dwellings)

– Electricity (Eskom component unknown)

– Liq fuels (disaggregation unclear)

– Detailed end-user characteristics

Rest of the slides may be useful for particular presentations but not

part of core. Can pick and choose as necessary. Most don’t have

associated notes.

Objectives

• Present the Optimum Energy Future

• Comments on strategic direction soundness

• Comments on assumptions

• Strengths and weaknesses

• Data gaps, and what to do about them

• Identify areas of further work

Energy Security

Low Carbon

Economic Development

Resilient City

Poverty Alleviation

Energy Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Public Transport

Compact City

Local Energy Business Development

Job Creation

Lower Risk

Localisation

Improved Health/Quality of Life

Better Access to Urban Goods

Goal Criteria 1 Criteria 2

ECAP Energy Vision and Prioritisation Criteria

National LTMS: Two Scenarios frame the choice for South Africa

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Mt

CO

2 -e

qu

iva

len

t

Required by Science

Growth without Constraints

THE GAP

Low Income Electrified

20%

Low Income Non

electrified 4%

Medium Income

33%

High Income 35%

VH income 8%

Breakdown of Energy Consumption in Residential Sector according to income groups, 2007

Households

Low Income

Electrified 40%

Low Income

Non electrified

6%

Medium Income

31%

High Income

19%

VH income 4%

Breakdown of Households in Residential Sector per income group, 2007

R 0 R 100,000,000 R 200,000,000 R 300,000,000 R 400,000,000 R 500,000,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

LI lightingLI fridge

MI lightingMI fridge

MI water

HI lighting

HI fridge

HI water

VH lightingVH fridge

VH water

COM HVAC

COM water

COM lighting

IND motors

IND HVACIND lighting

LG lightingLG HVAC

LG street lights

LG traffic signals

All Sectors

2025

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

LI lightingLI fridge

MI lighting

MI fridge

MI water

HI lighting

HI fridge

HI water

VH lighting

VH fridge

VH water

Domestic Sector

2015

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 0 R 5,000,000 R 10,000,000 R 15,000,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

LG lightingLG HVAC

LG street lights

LG traffic signals

Local Government

2015

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

Govt streetlights

Govt traffic signals

Govt buildings

-R 7,000,000,000 -R 6,000,000,000 -R 5,000,000,000 -R 4,000,000,000 -R 3,000,000,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000PAS Transport

Transport

2015

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

-R 20,000,000,000 -R 15,000,000,000 -R 10,000,000,000 -R 5,000,000,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000PAS Transport

Transport

2025

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 0 R 100,000,000 R 200,000,000 R 300,000,000 R 400,000,000 R 500,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

LI lightingLI fridge

MI lighting

MI fridge

MI water

HI lighting

HI fridge

HI water

VH lightingVH fridge

VH water

Domestic Sector

2025

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

COM HVAC

COM water

COM lighting

Commercial

2015

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 0 R 100,000,000 R 200,000,000 R 300,000,000 R 400,000,000 R 500,000,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

COM HVAC

COM water

COM lighting

Commercial

2025

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 200,000 R 400,000 R 600,000 R 800,000 R 1,000,000 R 1,200,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

IND motors

IND HVACIND lighting

Industry

2015

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 2,000,000 R 4,000,000 R 6,000,000 R 8,000,000 R 10,000,000 R 12,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000IND motors

IND HVACIND lighting

Industry

2025

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

LG lightingLG HVAC

LG street lights

LG traffic signals

Local Government

2025

Saving (R)

Ca

rbo

n (

T)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2025 (GWh)

OEF high income cooking

OEF industrial HVAC

OEF government buildings

OEF industrial lighting

OEF low income ceilings

OEF government traffic lights

OEF industrial machine drives

OEF commercial water heating

OEF government street lights

OEF commercial HVAC

OEF residential fridges

OEF commercial lighting

OEF residential lighting

OEF residential water heating

OEF industry fuel (excl. elec) 15% efficiency

Ranking of efficiency interventions by

impact

Industry eff

Residential water heat

Res lighting

Comm light

Res fridges

Comm HVAC Streetlights

5 KEY ACTIONS FOR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION

1. Densify the city, set urban edge

2. Public transport plan and investment plan

3. Mass Solar Water Heater implementation

4. Commercial building efficiency (new, retrofit)

5. Develop tariffs to promote efficiency

Densification

Percentage of Cape Town households spending >20%

of income on public transport

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0-R1000 R1001-R3000 R3001-R6000 R6001 +

Income quartiles

Perc

en

tag

e o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Figure 1, Car use per capita and urban density in global cities, 1990.

(Source: Kenworthy and Laube, 1999).

Figure 3: Transport related energy consumption and urban densities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

25 50 75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

Source: following Newman and Kenworthy, 1999, p110

US American cities

Australian cities

Central European cities

Energy Consumption in MJ per capita

Population density per ha

Moscow Hong Kong

Energy Consumption for Different Scenarios

Optimum Energy Future energy efficiency measures result in lower energy demand than Business as Usual without compromising energy service delivery.

BIG ISSUES THAT STILL NEED FURTHER ATTENTION

• Action Plan clear, but

• Enablers:

– City tariff system to promote energy efficiency

– Financing for efficient public transport system

– Densification of the city - enable public transport

– IRP which allows adequate renewable energy

• Need further research – Reducing electricity distribution infrastructure costs via

energy efficiency

– Peak Oil - huge financial impacts on transport • Need public transport

– The fast growing informal residential sector will place increasing demands on City’s ability to provide services

Way Forward

• Engage with key players, including government departments and other stakeholders

• Develop business plans for key projects identified

• Develop City Economic Development Strategy to support implementation of the Optimum Energy Future

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

Bill

ion

So

uth

Afr

ican

Ran

ds

Carbon Tax Implications represented by cost difference between Scenarios with and without carbon tax costs

(carbon tax of R100 at 4% escalation)

Business As Usual

Business As Usual Carbon Tax

Optimum Energy Future

Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax

NATIONAL IRP AND CITIES

KEY ISSUE NO 8: THE CITY MAY NEED TO GENERATE MUCH OF THEIR OWN ELECTRICITY TO REDUCE FUTURE CARBON-

LINKED RISKS

• Currently national generation mix is carbon-intensive

• City may need to proactively undertake own low-carbon generation

• Depends on whether national planning is stone-age or progressive

KEY ISSUE 7: INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS LINKED TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODAL SHIFT ARE HIGH. THE CITY MAY STRUGGLE TO FIND THIS MONEY, YET SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED

PUBLIC TRANSPORT FACILITIES ARE ESSENTIAL TO A SUSTAINABLE CITY.

The cost of infrastructure for public transport results in the Optimum Energy Future being significantly more expensive than the Business as Usual scenario.

CAPE TOWN OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE

The key results modelled for the Cape Town Optimum Energy Future are modelled to highlight the impact of this energy direction versus the business as usual trajectory

Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different scenarios (2025)

Optimum Energy Future carbon emissions are in keeping with national and international obligations.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2025 (GWh)

OEF high income cooking

OEF industrial HVAC

OEF government buildings

OEF industrial lighting

OEF low income ceilings

OEF government traffic lights

OEF industrial machine drives

OEF commercial water heating

OEF government street lights

OEF commercial HVAC

OEF residential fridges

OEF commercial lighting

OEF residential lighting

OEF residential water heating

OEF industry fuel (excl. elec) 15% efficiency

Ranking of efficiency interventions by

impact

Industry eff

Residential water heat

Res lighting

Comm light

Res fridges

Comm HVAC Streetlights

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

Bill

ion

So

uth

Afr

ican

Ran

ds

Year

TOTAL COSTS: CARBON TAX IMPLICATIONS Business As Usual and Optimum Energy Future Costs with and without

Carbon Tax

Business as Usual

Optimum Energy Future

Business as Usual (Carbon Tax)

Optimum Energy Future (Carbon Tax)

Optimum Energy Future with Tax

BAU with Tax

Objectives of Energy Scenarios for Cape Town

To clarify an optimum way forward for the energy sector in Cape Town such that:

– City’s economy is robust in a carbon constrained future

– energy costs for the city into the future are optimised

– energy service provision is not compromised

– employment creation is maximised

– opportunities for the development of energy related industries is maximised

– City’s carbon profile is in line with national and international obligations

Energy Efficiency Interventions –

• Commercial Sector

– Efficient HVAC

– Efficient Water Heating

– Efficient Lighting

• Residential Sector

– Efficient Lighting

– Efficient Water Heating

– Space Heating Efficiencies

• Local Government

– Efficient street and traffic lights

– Building efficiencies

– Transport efficiency

• Industrial Sector

– Efficient Lighting

– Efficient Motors

– Fuel Switching

• Transport

– Fuel Switching (liquid to electricity)

– Modal Shifts

– Travel Demand Management

Energy Supply Interventions

• Increase in renewable energy uptake

– (wind, solar)

• New nuclear energy (National LTMS)

• New coal generation

• Waste to Energy – landfill gas generation

• Carbon tax implications

Generation Cost of Electricity Supply options

IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON TOTAL DEMAND

Elec efficiency

Transport eff

(modal shift etc)

KEY ISSUE 4: NUCLEAR IS PART OF THE NATIONAL LTMS MIX BUT NEEDS TO BE APPROACHED WITH CAUTION – CONSTRUCTION DELAYS, LONG LEAD-IN TIMES AND LARGE COST OVERRUNS ARE VERY COMMON FOR NUCLEAR PROJECTS. THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF PUBLIC CONTENTION

AROUND NUCLEAR ENERGY

Existing Coal New Coal

New Nuclear

Wind

Solar Thermal

Climate Change Think Tank September 2009 – December 2010

• DANIDA Funded Climate Change Research Programme

• The overall focus is to better understand and prepare for climate change, including both mitigation and adaptation aspects. Various research projects are to be undertaken within this framework

• The Energy Scenarios for Cape Town Project is one of the Mitigation Projects

• BHC funding taking the work forward

Energy Scenarios for Cape Town Project

• … is based on a similar approach used in the National LTMS project

• … assists in identifying a secure energy future for Cape Town and defines key actions to be embarked upon

• … will support Phase 2 of the City’s Energy and Climate Action Plan.

Key Assumptions used in the Model

• Base Year for Data : 2007

• Scenarios modelled from 2007 - 2050

• Average electricity tariffs and liquid fuel costs for 2007 used

• Growth Rates – 2.9% energy growth rate linked to GGP (IRP)

– 3.4% growth rate used for passenger transport (historic trend)

– 4.4% growth rate used for new commercial build (SARS)

• Costing – 5% real discount rate used throughout the model

– Capital and O&M costs annualised

Data Collection and Analysis • Five Sectors Analysed

– Residential

– Commercial (including other government sectors)

– Industrial

– Local Government

– Transport (Freight and Passenger)

• Information sourced on all energy used per sector

• Disaggregation within sectors as far as data allows (sometimes clear limitations)

• Modelled future scenarios up to 2050, including energy, carbon and cost implications

• Analysed different energy efficiency interventions as well as electricity supply mixes

Way Forward (2)

Further investigation into…

• City tariff system to promote energy efficiency

• Financing for efficient public transport system

• Analysis of impact of high growth in the informal sector on service delivery and energy security

• Reducing electricity distribution infrastructure costs via energy efficiency

The Optimum Energy Future Sector Interventions

Residential Efficient lighting

Efficient water heating (solar water heaters or heat pumps)

Commercial Efficient Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC)

Efficient water heating

Efficient lighting

Industrial Efficient motors

Efficient HVAC

Efficient lighting

Local Government Buildings: efficient lighting

Buildings: efficient HVAC

Efficient street lighting

LED traffic lights

Fleet fuel efficiency

Freight Transport Freight from road to rail

Passenger Transport Hybrid and electric private vehicles

Public transport vehicle efficiency

Modal shift from private to public transport

Electricity Supply Mix Renewable energy in mix

2025 SLIDES

Cost Ex transport

Cost Ex electricity

Ex transport infrastructure

2050 SLIDES

Scope of the Energy Scenarios for Cape Town Project

• Developed by Sustainable Energy Africa and Energy Research Centre, supported by the CCT Environmental Resource Management Department and the City Energy Data Management Group

• An extensive data collection exercise was undertaken for the base year 2007 – Built on previous work in State of Energy Report and the Cape Town

Energy Futures Report

– A detailed energy picture for Cape Town for 2007 including energy used per sector and per fuel type

• The model is able to illustrate the implications of doing nothing (Business-As-Usual) as well as energy, carbon and cost implications of different scenarios

IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON COMMERCIAL DEMAND

HVAC

Lighting

IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON GOVT DEMAND

Street lights

Fleet efficiency